So if Trump did win PA but lost AZ , that would be 269 tied? So with ME2 Biden could still win? Its 3am so my brain is low on battery so apologies if my maths is wrong
You are right, but NE-2 is more likely than ME-2 to be EC 270.
Biden is coming in again on the spreads. Not by a lot but still it's the first movement that direction since before Florida. As of now you can buy at 267. Was 262 ten minutes ago.
CNN now have their angle...COVID stopped democrats door knocking, and Trump didn't convince anybody new, it was just got his supporters out.
They aren't learning are they.
What do you mean? It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis. I was worried about this issue, also the impact on college campuses
There does seem to have been a big polling miss with Hispanics. There were signs of this in the polling crosstabs (hat-tip @MrEd) but it didn't look nearly as significant as it has turned out.
Time for bed for me as I have work in the morning. I'm still pretty optimistic that Biden has this. Looks like he's going to flip AZ, and I think OH is likely still heading his way. I'm pretty sure he'll pick up MI and WI and probably PA too, giving him 307 - 231, which was pretty much the map I settled on yesterday, except I had Biden picking up NC and Trump retaining OH.
If Biden does flip AZ and OH, then he only needs one of MI, PA or WI. If he gets AZ and fails to get OH, he still wins wins if he takes back PA or MI and WI.
That, of course, assumes Trump doesn't flip any 2016 Democratic states, but I just don't see him losing AZ but gaining NV, nor gaining MN when OH is tilting D and MI/PA/WI are toss-ups.
Oh, BTW, the other day I tipped NY-11 (Staten Island) to flip from D to R. It's not been called by the networks yet, but the Republican candidate has just claimed victory on a 58-42 lead.
Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
CNN now have their angle...COVID stopped democrats door knocking, and Trump didn't convince anybody new, it was just got his supporters out.
They aren't learning are they.
What do you mean? It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis. I was worried about this issue, also the impact on college campuses
There does seem to have been a big polling miss with Hispanics. There were signs of this in the polling crosstabs (hat-tip @MrEd) but it didn't look nearly as significant as it has turned out.
Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.
Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!
Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
You might as well desire the other party gives up and votes for you. There will never be 3/4 of the US States willing to give large states even more power.
OK, this might sound like denial in 5 hours, but I think Biden is doing...OK. He's narrowing the margins compared to 2016 in GA/NC, improving also in AZ/NH. In 100% counted counties he's beating Clinton almost everywhere. Trump only won the Midwest 3 (PA/WI/MI) by under 1% in each state, and weakness with latinos won't be a problem for him there.
He should still win, right? At the very least he is still in with a decent shot.
I'm posting this comment so as to put my view on the record whether it's right or wrong. Don't get me wrong, he's underperforming the polls. But the polls gave him an easy win and a possible landslide. If he underperforms a bit he could well still win.
Minnesota looking good for Biden but still early count. But he's up on Clinton in the pivot counties. Need to wait for the outer counties which are more pro Trump.
Shades of Truman v Dewey but Biden still very close with Trump in the EC and Biden will likely take the lead in the popular vote once California starts reporting in half an hour
Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.
Although AZ has plenty of Hispanics, and that's not looking quite so good...
Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
You might as well desire the other party gives up and votes for you. There will never be 3/4 of the US States willing to give large states even more power.
I'm more thinking where their anger at the system will manifest into action where they can act, given that path is likely closed.
Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!
Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.
Drat, I'm awake. Going to be difficult to get back to sleep now... also resisting the urge to peek downstairs to see if my rodent co-occupiers have been at my kitchen again.
55% of the vote is in for VA and Trump is still 190K votes ahead. OK, I get that the ballots still have to come in but there comes a point when it becomes tricky for Biden.
I think Biden may do it in Ohio. Could be the value bet of the night. He's 240k behind with maybe 1.6m to come... And looks like places that favour him are left (Toledo, Cleveland...)
How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.
Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
Looking at the current figures Trump has 53k over Biden 86% of precincts but only 73% of the vote. The reason is Wake County which is about 25-30% reported and the Dems would expect to hold sway in. The margin is 1% right now. there are GOP leaning counties still to count too but i cant see anyone winning this by more than 1-1.5%
Shades of Truman v Dewey but Biden still very close with Trump in the EC and Biden will likely take the lead in the popular vote once California starts reporting in half an hour
Yes, could go either way still. But enjoyably close. I’m going to sleeeeeeeep x
55% of the vote is in for VA and Trump is still 190K votes ahead. OK, I get that the ballots still have to come in but there comes a point when it becomes tricky for Biden.
No, there's loads of votes still to come in from the DC suburbs.
Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.
Although AZ has plenty of Hispanics, and that's not looking quite so good...
We could soon compare AZ Hispanics 16 with 20 to see how they moved? If at all.
How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.
Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
RINO Trump might prefer a Democrat Senate as it would mean less pressure to abandon Obamacare (or do anything at all, come to that).
Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!
Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.
How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.
Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
RINO Trump might prefer a Democrat Senate as it would mean less pressure to abandon Obamacare (or do anything at all, come to that).
Is Biden really winning NH safely enough to call it quickly but in big trouble in PA? I mean, it's far from impossible, the states don't uniformally swing, but it does seem Biden is doing OK in suburban and white voters, and if so then his position is arguably still favourite. Certainly not a huge underdog.
Hmm, something is off. Possibly I'm just underestimating regional swings or missing some big Trump leads in other places.
Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!
Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.
That seems a stretch.
Agreed
But the fact OH has been so close is encouraging for Biden in the other Mid-west states
In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.
Nah, you don't get away with that.
You've been pooh-poohing on here for months anyone who made a Democratic sceptic argument on the grounds of their appalling identity politics, leftish economics, and the emerging evidence of minorities being put off by that.
You got it badly badly wrong. Man up, own it and apologise.
I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections
Comments
Cities are slow voting in PA relative to rural, so hard to know for certain.
They aren't learning are they.
ABC think he has some big votes there to come.
Hmmm.
Anyway, he is looking good in Arizona. It might, might, be a sign.
Based on current trajectory (i.e. Biden losing 0.3% for every point of turnout), he wins by one pecent.
Even better if Philly could be arsed.
If Arizona reported before Florida would it have set a different early narrative? We were always warned about the red mirage.
Chill. 🙂
Where’s Kinbalu gone? Please post so we know you are alive.
There does seem to have been a big polling miss with Hispanics. There were signs of this in the polling crosstabs (hat-tip @MrEd) but it didn't look nearly as significant as it has turned out.
Look at where numbers are still come from. I'd reckon that's worth a few quid at 20 to 1.
If Biden does flip AZ and OH, then he only needs one of MI, PA or WI. If he gets AZ and fails to get OH, he still wins wins if he takes back PA or MI and WI.
That, of course, assumes Trump doesn't flip any 2016 Democratic states, but I just don't see him losing AZ but gaining NV, nor gaining MN when OH is tilting D and MI/PA/WI are toss-ups.
Oh, BTW, the other day I tipped NY-11 (Staten Island) to flip from D to R. It's not been called by the networks yet, but the Republican candidate has just claimed victory on a 58-42 lead.
Good night all.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/ohio
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323829884775501824
Fucking clueless.
Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.
He should still win, right? At the very least he is still in with a decent shot.
I'm posting this comment so as to put my view on the record whether it's right or wrong. Don't get me wrong, he's underperforming the polls. But the polls gave him an easy win and a possible landslide. If he underperforms a bit he could well still win.
That seems a stretch.
--AS
Right now, it's feeling like Biden flips AZ and WI. NV is who know... and PA and MI remain key,
He's 240k behind with maybe 1.6m to come... And looks like places that favour him are left (Toledo, Cleveland...)
PA count so far has far fewer early votes than true share.
If Biden holds AZ, he only needs two of the 3 rust belt.
It's still perfectly possible.
Looking at the current figures Trump has 53k over Biden 86% of precincts but only 73% of the vote. The reason is Wake County which is about 25-30% reported and the Dems would expect to hold sway in. The margin is 1% right now. there are GOP leaning counties still to count too but i cant see anyone winning this by more than 1-1.5%
Its ridiculous that we may not know who has won the rust belt for a week. Not looking good for American democracy.
...
Betfair's Odds:
Trump .... 1.42
Biden ...... 3.35
Value of matched bets to date .... £382 million
Hmm, something is off. Possibly I'm just underestimating regional swings or missing some big Trump leads in other places.
MI total will be 55% early vote
You've been pooh-poohing on here for months anyone who made a Democratic sceptic argument on the grounds of their appalling identity politics, leftish economics, and the emerging evidence of minorities being put off by that.
You got it badly badly wrong. Man up, own it and apologise.
I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections