Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

As Biden’s price goes past 4 on Betfair this maybe a long week – politicalbetting.com

245678

Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Popular vote so far:

    Biden: 35,047,789 votes (47.7%)
    Trump: 37,216,578 votes (50.7%)

    California hasn't got their pair of scales out yet.
  • Options
    Biden back to 3 from 4 on Betfair. A trader's dream.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    ABC think Georgia is far from over.

    Really?

    Atlanta?
    The Needle still has it with Biden 17% likely to win. Certainly too early to call it seems.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    These are all OTD votes I believe? If so, seems encouraging for Biden to me.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

    Cities are slow voting in PA relative to rural, so hard to know for certain.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Mal557 said:

    So if Trump did win PA but lost AZ , that would be 269 tied? So with ME2 Biden could still win? Its 3am so my brain is low on battery so apologies if my maths is wrong

    You are right, but NE-2 is more likely than ME-2 to be EC 270.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Fox said Biden has 89% chance as of 20 mins ago!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2020
    CNN now have their angle...COVID stopped democrats door knocking, and Trump didn't convince anybody new, it was just got his supporters out.

    They aren't learning are they.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    Biden for popular vote looks pretty safe right?
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    Biden is closing the gap in Ohio.

    ABC think he has some big votes there to come.

    Hmmm.

    Anyway, he is looking good in Arizona. It might, might, be a sign.
  • Options
    Nate is losing it
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Arizoa - 75% in, Biden lead 8.7%.

    Based on current trajectory (i.e. Biden losing 0.3% for every point of turnout), he wins by one pecent.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Michigan not looking good?

    They count election day votes first, early votes will bring that lead down significantly but it will be close.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    rkrkrk said:

    Biden for popular vote looks pretty safe right?

    Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Arizona 73% reported, Biden +9 points

    I think Biden gets this one.
    Trump has to win "on the day" by 30 points.

    Can he do it?

    Yes? Is it likely?

    Probably not. Biden is 65% likely to take AZ based on these numbers.

    More of a worry for Trump is Ohio.

    While Trump's lead has widened to five points, almost nothing that remains is good for him.
    His price is down to 1.04 - everything thinks it's gone.
  • Options

    Dems are very confident on Pa. and the Republicans are not.

    Remember that they are counting on the day votes first.
    Better for my health.

    Even better if Philly could be arsed.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Biden is coming in again on the spreads. Not by a lot but still it's the first movement that direction since before Florida. As of now you can buy at 267. Was 262 ten minutes ago.
  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Trump looking good. Incredible
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Calm down dear horse. The trump leaning agent provocateurs keep handing you rope to self flagellate with.

    If Arizona reported before Florida would it have set a different early narrative? We were always warned about the red mirage.

    Chill. 🙂

    Where’s Kinbalu gone? Please post so we know you are alive.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    But who knows?
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    CNN now have their angle...COVID stopped democrats door knocking, and Trump didn't convince anybody new, it was just got his supporters out.

    They aren't learning are they.

    What do you mean? It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis. I was worried about this issue, also the impact on college campuses

    There does seem to have been a big polling miss with Hispanics. There were signs of this in the polling crosstabs (hat-tip @MrEd) but it didn't look nearly as significant as it has turned out.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Arizona 73% reported, Biden +9 points

    I think Biden gets this one.
    Trump has to win "on the day" by 30 points.

    Can he do it?

    Yes? Is it likely?

    Probably not. Biden is 65% likely to take AZ based on these numbers.

    More of a worry for Trump is Ohio.

    While Trump's lead has widened to five points, almost nothing that remains is good for him.
    His price is down to 1.04 - everything thinks it's gone.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-ohio.html


    Look at where numbers are still come from. I'd reckon that's worth a few quid at 20 to 1.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Time for bed for me as I have work in the morning. I'm still pretty optimistic that Biden has this. Looks like he's going to flip AZ, and I think OH is likely still heading his way. I'm pretty sure he'll pick up MI and WI and probably PA too, giving him 307 - 231, which was pretty much the map I settled on yesterday, except I had Biden picking up NC and Trump retaining OH.

    If Biden does flip AZ and OH, then he only needs one of MI, PA or WI. If he gets AZ and fails to get OH, he still wins wins if he takes back PA or MI and WI.

    That, of course, assumes Trump doesn't flip any 2016 Democratic states, but I just don't see him losing AZ but gaining NV, nor gaining MN when OH is tilting D and MI/PA/WI are toss-ups.

    Oh, BTW, the other day I tipped NY-11 (Staten Island) to flip from D to R. It's not been called by the networks yet, but the Republican candidate has just claimed victory on a 58-42 lead.

    Good night all.
  • Options
    Quincel said:

    Pennslyvania was flagged up as likely to have a blue-shift as it counts most early votes later. Same with WI/MI. Opposite of Florida/NC.
    538 modelled it a while back as I recall and said Trump would be up 58:42 with 60% of votes counted even if Dems were to win with 100% counted.
  • Options
    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, AZ Biden lead at 8.7% with 75% counted vs 9.2% with 73% before
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,997
    Sorry for the double post.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    rkrkrk said:

    Biden for popular vote looks pretty safe right?

    Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
    If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Andy_JS said:

    Sorry for the double post.

    You are forgiven.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
  • Options

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Such as?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Arizona exit polls show Biden winning 65+ year olds on the day by five points.
  • Options
    Ian Dunt calling Hispanics racist now, amazing
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Think I'll try to grab a few hours of kip as well - Biden, don't screw this up!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    MrEd said:

    FYI, AZ Biden lead at 8.7% with 75% counted vs 9.2% with 73% before

    Yes, he's losing 0.25% per percent... Which is not quite enough for Trump.
  • Options

    CNN now have their angle...COVID stopped democrats door knocking, and Trump didn't convince anybody new, it was just got his supporters out.

    They aren't learning are they.

    What do you mean? It's a perfectly reasonable hypothesis. I was worried about this issue, also the impact on college campuses

    There does seem to have been a big polling miss with Hispanics. There were signs of this in the polling crosstabs (hat-tip @MrEd) but it didn't look nearly as significant as it has turned out.
    Well it isn't. Turn out is up.
  • Options

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Such as?
    For example, this turkey:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323829884775501824
  • Options
    Some Democrat nob on Fox talking about race, climate and economic justice intersectionality and the need to have imagination.

    Fucking clueless.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    NYT

    Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.
  • Options
    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Such as?
    For example, this turkey:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323829884775501824
    Jesus, that is a dumb one. The polls didn't give a predictor for the lead part way through the count, mate.
  • Options
    Blair was right when he said, can't win identity politics, don't have the argument
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Biden for popular vote looks pretty safe right?

    Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
    If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
    You might as well desire the other party gives up and votes for you. There will never be 3/4 of the US States willing to give large states even more power.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,997
    We could be heading for a tie if Biden gains Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. There's Nebraska 2nd to take into consideration as well.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    FYI, AZ Biden lead at 8.7% with 75% counted vs 9.2% with 73% before

    Yes, he's losing 0.25% per percent... Which is not quite enough for Trump.
    I think Trump can afford to lose this one. I still think Trump will pick up MN. Interesting they are talking up their chances in NV.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited November 2020
    OK, this might sound like denial in 5 hours, but I think Biden is doing...OK. He's narrowing the margins compared to 2016 in GA/NC, improving also in AZ/NH. In 100% counted counties he's beating Clinton almost everywhere. Trump only won the Midwest 3 (PA/WI/MI) by under 1% in each state, and weakness with latinos won't be a problem for him there.

    He should still win, right? At the very least he is still in with a decent shot.

    I'm posting this comment so as to put my view on the record whether it's right or wrong. Don't get me wrong, he's underperforming the polls. But the polls gave him an easy win and a possible landslide. If he underperforms a bit he could well still win.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094

    Blair was right when he said, can't win identity politics, don't have the argument

    You're acting like Biden has lost? It's still too early to say.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Minnesota looking good for Biden but still early count. But he's up on Clinton in the pivot counties. Need to wait for the outer counties which are more pro Trump.
  • Options
    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    LadyG said:

    Trump looking good. Incredible

    Shades of Truman v Dewey but Biden still very close with Trump in the EC and Biden will likely take the lead in the popular vote once California starts reporting in half an hour
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    minnesota looks great for JB unless I'm reading it wrong. (almost 300k ahead and I thought this was a red mirage state) is 2/5 value?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    MrEd said:

    NYT

    Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.

    Although AZ has plenty of Hispanics, and that's not looking quite so good...
  • Options
    Stupid question but why can't the presidency be decided like how we did Brexit
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Biden for popular vote looks pretty safe right?

    Yes definitely, overall he is outperforming Clinton
    If he does win, then the desire of the Democrats to get rid of the Electoral College, already increasing, will shoot through the roof I expect. If they'd won in a landslide, their desire for change might have tailed off a bit. Of course, they won't be able to get rid of it without a landslied, presumably, so their anger will fester.
    You might as well desire the other party gives up and votes for you. There will never be 3/4 of the US States willing to give large states even more power.
    I'm more thinking where their anger at the system will manifest into action where they can act, given that path is likely closed.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mal557 said:

    Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!

    Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.

    That seems a stretch.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094

    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.

    Looks like Cunningham will lose. GOP retain the Senate I think.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    Stupid question but why can't the presidency be decided like how we did Brexit

    People vote and then spend 4 years arguing about what it meant?
  • Options

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Such as?
    For example, this turkey:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323829884775501824
    His highpoint was predicting Ed Miliband would lose - it all went precipitously downwards thereafter.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.

    Looks like Cunningham will lose. GOP retain the Senate I think.
    Looks like there has been a big polling fail in the South east. Not clear yet if it extends to the rest of the country
  • Options
    Drat, I'm awake. Going to be difficult to get back to sleep now... also resisting the urge to peek downstairs to see if my rodent co-occupiers have been at my kitchen again.

    --AS
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    It's neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, but 63% of the vote to come is from counties Clinton won.

    Right now, it's feeling like Biden flips AZ and WI. NV is who know... and PA and MI remain key,
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Stupid question but why can't the presidency be decided like how we did Brexit

    Narrowly, chaotically, chronically divided and dragged out into the courts? Sounds like it is.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    55% of the vote is in for VA and Trump is still 190K votes ahead. OK, I get that the ballots still have to come in but there comes a point when it becomes tricky for Biden.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    I think Biden may do it in Ohio. Could be the value bet of the night.
    He's 240k behind with maybe 1.6m to come... And looks like places that favour him are left (Toledo, Cleveland...)
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    I thinks this is very hard to call.

    PA count so far has far fewer early votes than true share.

    If Biden holds AZ, he only needs two of the 3 rust belt.

    It's still perfectly possible.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.

    Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203
    edited November 2020
    NC

    Looking at the current figures Trump has 53k over Biden 86% of precincts but only 73% of the vote. The reason is Wake County which is about 25-30% reported and the Dems would expect to hold sway in. The margin is 1% right now. there are GOP leaning counties still to count too but i cant see anyone winning this by more than 1-1.5%

  • Options
    I don't think any democrat would have done better, definitely not Sanders
  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Trump looking good. Incredible

    Shades of Truman v Dewey but Biden still very close with Trump in the EC and Biden will likely take the lead in the popular vote once California starts reporting in half an hour
    Yes, could go either way still. But enjoyably close. I’m going to sleeeeeeeep x
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.

    Indeed. I said that originally but became convinced by the polls that he'd done enough.

    Its ridiculous that we may not know who has won the rust belt for a week. Not looking good for American democracy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Missouri projected for Trump
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    MrEd said:

    55% of the vote is in for VA and Trump is still 190K votes ahead. OK, I get that the ballots still have to come in but there comes a point when it becomes tricky for Biden.

    No, there's loads of votes still to come in from the DC suburbs.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    NYT

    Trump campaign officials said they were optimistic about the numbers they were seeing with Hispanic voters in Nevada, following the same trend in Florida.

    Although AZ has plenty of Hispanics, and that's not looking quite so good...
    We could soon compare AZ Hispanics 16 with 20 to see how they moved? If at all.
  • Options
    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    rcs1000 said:

    It's neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, but 63% of the vote to come is from counties Clinton won.

    Right now, it's feeling like Biden flips AZ and WI. NV is who know... and PA and MI remain key,

    It will be suprising if Ralston gets his NV forecast wrong but then nothing about Trumps campaigning should surprise us I guess
  • Options
    Quincel said:

    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.

    Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
    RINO Trump might prefer a Democrat Senate as it would mean less pressure to abandon Obamacare (or do anything at all, come to that).
  • Options
    Presidential Election 2020 - Next President
    Betfair's Odds:

    Trump .... 1.42
    Biden ...... 3.35

    Value of matched bets to date .... £382 million
  • Options
    Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!

    Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.

    That seems a stretch.
    Agreed
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    rcs1000 said:

    It's neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, but 63% of the vote to come is from counties Clinton won.

    Right now, it's feeling like Biden flips AZ and WI. NV is who know... and PA and MI remain key,

    Don't forget NE-02 (and ME-02!). Could be critical
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Quincel said:

    How is the Senate going? I see Graham hung on fairly comprehensively.

    Very dicey for the Dems. Colorado called for them, Arizona looking good but still early. Maine looking unclear, North Carolina looking lean GOP. Maybe Dems are winning a surprise seat somewhere, they did have a lot of underdogs with a shot, but a 49-51 Senate for the GOP is at the very least very plausible right now.
    RINO Trump might prefer a Democrat Senate as it would mean less pressure to abandon Obamacare (or do anything at all, come to that).
    The Dems will hold the house anyway
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kle4 said:

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Such as?
    For example, this turkey:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1323829884775501824
    Jesus, that is a dumb one. The polls didn't give a predictor for the lead part way through the count, mate.
    More specifically, there is no value to a PV count that includes zero votes from California.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    We could be heading for a tie if Biden gains Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. There's Nebraska 2nd to take into consideration as well.

    Yep. It was a phenomenal tip that, which I didn't take.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Is Biden really winning NH safely enough to call it quickly but in big trouble in PA? I mean, it's far from impossible, the states don't uniformally swing, but it does seem Biden is doing OK in suburban and white voters, and if so then his position is arguably still favourite. Certainly not a huge underdog.

    Hmm, something is off. Possibly I'm just underestimating regional swings or missing some big Trump leads in other places.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    MI count so far - 17% early vote

    MI total will be 55% early vote
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mal557 said:

    Still about 1/3 of votes in the big blue counties in Ohio to come in, around Cleveland ,Cincinatti etc, so still a lot of votes there. Shame there isnt a needle for Ohio!

    Biden needs to win the Remain g 25% of the voter 15-10 t be in with a shout.

    That seems a stretch.
    Agreed
    But the fact OH has been so close is encouraging for Biden in the other Mid-west states
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    rcs1000 said:

    It's neck-and-neck in Wisconsin, but 63% of the vote to come is from counties Clinton won.

    Right now, it's feeling like Biden flips AZ and WI. NV is who know... and PA and MI remain key,

    Don't forget NE-02 (and ME-02!). Could be critical
    Could be the difference between 269-269 and 270-268.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Oh my - I think odds may move back towards 50:50
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    Feels like they've stopped counting everywhere.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    In my defence I did say Biden was an appalling candidate.

    Nah, you don't get away with that.

    You've been pooh-poohing on here for months anyone who made a Democratic sceptic argument on the grounds of their appalling identity politics, leftish economics, and the emerging evidence of minorities being put off by that.

    You got it badly badly wrong. Man up, own it and apologise.
  • Options

    Dan Hodges has been tweeting some really, really dumb stuff tonight...

    Why would tonight be any different?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Morning all. So, as expected, no-one knows what the hell is going on, and isn't likely to for probably a few days. :D
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    The needle for GA is falling back a bit for Trump, now only 81%.
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1323834243240308737

    I kind of feel like this is the problem. I empathise with this stuff I really do but I think telling your voters that they're basically stupid is how we keep losing elections
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Trump's winning margin is increasing in OH and TX as more votes come in. Both are definitely lost to Biden. AZ, PA, MI is the path.
  • Options
    Doesn't look as it stands that I'll be winning my 3/1 bet with HYUFD on size of ECV majority vs 2016.
This discussion has been closed.