I don’t think I would go that far on its own. It’s Michigan and Wisconsin going, if they do, that would make him clear favourite and make it difficult to see how Trump could win.
However, it appears to be close there and in Montana, which was noted as a possible outlier a few weeks ago.
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
What's the split between on the day/early voting in WI? As per the Guardian, Biden needs something like 60% of the remaining 18% of votes - between 72% and 82% of the vote, Trump won 51% of the vote.
I don’t think I would go that far on its own. It’s Michigan and Wisconsin going, if they do, that would make him clear favourite and make it difficult to see how Trump could win.
However, it appears to be close there and in Montana, which was noted as a possible outlier a few weeks ago.
Montana already called for Trumpy
Really? Not on what I’m seeing. He’s ahead, but there are still several Dem leaning counties to report.
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
What's the split between on the day/early voting in WI? As per the Guardian, Biden needs something like 60% of the remaining 18% of votes - between 72% and 82% of the vote, Trump won 51% of the vote.
I think almost everything remaining in WI is early voting, so it has to favour Biden.
Worst case is Trump winning through dodgy court decisions on ballots.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
Just out of bed this morning. 2020 just keeps getting more and more "exciting" doesn't it?
God alone knows what'll end up happening, but a protracted legal fight over the key swing state as per 2000 (only with PA not FL at the centre of things, of course,) looks like a more than realistic possibility.
Worst case is Trump winning through dodgy court decisions on ballots.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
Yep - there are enough close races for the courts to win it for Trump. It gives me absolutely no pleasure to say this is exactly the scenario I foresaw. Very, very glad I moved from shares to cash 10 days ago!
Worst case is Trump winning through dodgy court decisions on ballots.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
Yep - there are enough close races for the courts to win it for Trump. It gives me absolutely no pleasure to say this is exactly the scenario I foresaw. Very, very glad I moved from shares to cash 10 days ago!
So far markets haven’t pegged this, which is surprising and may present an opportunity
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
What's the split between on the day/early voting in WI? As per the Guardian, Biden needs something like 60% of the remaining 18% of votes - between 72% and 82% of the vote, Trump won 51% of the vote.
I think almost everything remaining in WI is early voting, so it has to favour Biden.
Worst case is Trump winning through dodgy court decisions on ballots.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
Yep - there are enough close races for the courts to win it for Trump. It gives me absolutely no pleasure to say this is exactly the scenario I foresaw. Very, very glad I moved from shares to cash 10 days ago!
After Brexit and this, I class you as a super forecaster.
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
What's the split between on the day/early voting in WI? As per the Guardian, Biden needs something like 60% of the remaining 18% of votes - between 72% and 82% of the vote, Trump won 51% of the vote.
I think almost everything remaining in WI is early voting, so it has to favour Biden.
Between 82% and 84%:
Biden: 71% Trump: 29%
Between 82% and 85%:
Biden: 65% Trump: 35%
I make it that Biden needs to win the remaining 15% by 61:39.
I think Biden has picked up AZ and WI. MN looks like an easy hold.
Trump has held TX. And almost certainly NC too.
I don't know how NV will vote.
GA is probably a GOP hold.
PA currently looks poor for the Dems.
Which means - pretty much - like the winner of MI wins the election.
Trump has a nine point lead with half the votes counted. But on the day has been counted first, and VA has shown how misleading this can be,
What's the split between on the day/early voting in WI? As per the Guardian, Biden needs something like 60% of the remaining 18% of votes - between 72% and 82% of the vote, Trump won 51% of the vote.
I think almost everything remaining in WI is early voting, so it has to favour Biden.
Between 82% and 84%:
Biden: 71% Trump: 29%
Between 82% and 85%:
Biden: 65% Trump: 35%
I make it that Biden needs to win the remaining 15% by 61:39.
Sounds right, but Milwuakee absentee ballots the big remaining source of votes. Trump could win it, but that's a set I'd reckon is likely to be 2:1 for Biden.
Guardian: Donald Trump falsely claimed that he was “winning” the election early on Wednesday morning, and that it was being “stolen from him”.
The statement is false. No state allows voters to cast a ballot after the polls close. Some states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, are counting ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day and arrive in the days after. The voter still has to vote the ballot before election day.
For months, experts have warned that it could take several days to count the ballots because of a surge in mail-in voting. Election officials in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all urged the public too remain patient and said they will not announce a winner on election night.
Twitter swiftly tagged Trump’s tweet, saying: “Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.”
Worst case is Trump winning through dodgy court decisions on ballots.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
Yep - there are enough close races for the courts to win it for Trump. It gives me absolutely no pleasure to say this is exactly the scenario I foresaw. Very, very glad I moved from shares to cash 10 days ago!
After Brexit and this, I class you as a super forecaster.
Jesus f*cking Christ, I suspected it would be close, but this is the death of an industry. How on Earth did pollsters get it so wrong?
The results are all provisional and of the ones that are pretty clear only FL seems like a biggish miss, so let's wait and see what the actual counts are.
That said, Trump did lots of ground-game GOTV while Biden tried to avoid giving his voters covid19, so maybe the voters' actions didn't match their intentions...
The Sanders camp warned on the phenomenon of shy trump voters combining with approval, but low enthusiasm for Biden ; but a Sanders run may have been almost exactly as close, too, with a huge grassroots turnout counteracted by independents staying away.
It's hard to escape the conclusion that America is simply a very precisely and evenly fissured and polarised society.
A Republican congressman who easily won reelection tonight criticized Donald Trump after the president baselessly accused Democrats of trying to “steal” the election.
“Stop. Full stop,” congressman Adam Kinzinger said in a tweet. “The votes will be counted and you will either win or lose. And America will accept that. Patience is a virtue.”
Biden's going to win by one electoral vote, that of New York electoral college voter Hillary Clinton, and she's somehow going to find a way to fuck it up
The main betting market still seems pretty confident that the big prize will be Trump's. In Betfair's massive "Next President" market, Trump's odds are 1.69 while Biden's are 2.46. In old-fashioned bookie's odds those equate to roughly 0.7/1 and 6/4 respectively ... quite a difference however you look at it. Mind you, a good result for one or other from the remaining states could dramatically change these odds. Personally, given the various pathways to reach 270 ECVs, I reckon Biden's odds represent cracking value and I've dived in!
In the context of that map, this comment from the Des Moines Republican Chair is interesting: “ It didn’t impress Iowans to have someone from the east coast and the west coast on the ticket, That’s not how you endear yourself to the midwest,” he said.
Comments
I think WI is Biden.
That is quite likely, and America is screwed. Turn out the lights.
https://twitter.com/naamanzhou/status/1323865365974183936?s=20
😀
But there's a massive WTFK?
God alone knows what'll end up happening, but a protracted legal fight over the key swing state as per 2000 (only with PA not FL at the centre of things, of course,) looks like a more than realistic possibility.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323868179521626115
Biden: 71%
Trump: 29%
Now +6.5% with 20% to go.
Trump needs to win the remainder 2:1. Possible enough that I wouldn't call the state. But Biden is still favourite.
Biden: 65%
Trump: 35%
I make it that Biden needs to win the remaining 15% by 61:39.
Dems will be overjoyed to have drawn Loeffler against Warnock.
Dem: 1500622
Rep: 1499419
The statement is false. No state allows voters to cast a ballot after the polls close. Some states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, are counting ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day and arrive in the days after. The voter still has to vote the ballot before election day.
For months, experts have warned that it could take several days to count the ballots because of a surge in mail-in voting. Election officials in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan have all urged the public too remain patient and said they will not announce a winner on election night.
Twitter swiftly tagged Trump’s tweet, saying: “Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.”
Lead 240,000 (was 300,000)
GA, Trump is favourite.
Which leaves WI and MI.
Trump is favoured to retain the the Presidency, but it'll be close.
My only solid gold call of the election..
Arizona and NE2.
Google thinks we're at 86%, NY Times thinks 76%.
That said, Trump did lots of ground-game GOTV while Biden tried to avoid giving his voters covid19, so maybe the voters' actions didn't match their intentions...
271-267 will be much clearer.
In which case, Biden is clear favourite.
But if you believe Google, then it can't be more than 200,000, and Trump is in the driving seat (just).
It's hard to escape the conclusion that America is simply a very precisely and evenly fissured and polarised society.
I really didn't expect to see things being so close. Biden 2.5 on Betfair currently.
Makes me feel less moronic about hedging my bets earlier (long time ago).
Total approx 2m mail ballots outstanding in all of PA
“Stop. Full stop,” congressman Adam Kinzinger said in a tweet. “The votes will be counted and you will either win or lose. And America will accept that. Patience is a virtue.”
https://twitter.com/laurabronner/status/1323876679568162823?s=21
In Betfair's massive "Next President" market, Trump's odds are 1.69 while Biden's are 2.46. In old-fashioned bookie's odds those equate to roughly 0.7/1 and 6/4 respectively ... quite a difference however you look at it. Mind you, a good result for one or other from the remaining states could dramatically change these odds.
Personally, given the various pathways to reach 270 ECVs, I reckon Biden's odds represent cracking value and I've dived in!
Trump lead 75,000