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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings – politicalbettin

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Ooh, site back up. Don't Vanilla give notice of their site maintenance schedule?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    A kinder, gentler politics,,,,cant see Joe and Don doing this though :)
  • Jonathan said:

    If you vote Conservative, this is what you get. 🤷‍♂️

    This wouldn't have happened under my boys Dave and George.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guido is talking rubbish, the Church of England was created as a breakaway from the Catholic Church by Henry VIII so by definition it has to be the established Church with the monarch as its head otherwise as it is still a 'holy Catholic and apostolic church' it would effectively revert to its Supreme Head being the Pope
    Er...you mean like the Methodist church?
    The Methodist church is non conformist, not the established church.

    The Queen is also not Supreme Governor of the Methodist Church

    I think you will find the Methodist Church in England (not in Wales where it was different) was formed by a breakaway from the Church of England in the late eighteenth century.

    I would also point out the Church of Ireland and Church in Wales are both disestablished (in 1869 and 1920 respectively) and while neither have the Queen as Supreme Governor neither seem to have resumed papal authority.
    That does not change its Head is not the monarch, just as once the Church of England left the Catholic Church its head is no longer the Pope.

    The Church of Ireland represents the Republic of Ireland too and the Church of Wales is closer to the Methodist Church than the Church of England
    But my point is, removing the queen as SG would not make it catholic again. Which, if I have understood correctly, was your original claim.
    It would, as the Church of Ireland and Church of Wales were effectively created as new Churches within the Anglican umbrella, the Church of England though is by its very foundation stone based on the monarch as its Supreme Governor and being the established church, if that is removed it is no longer the Church of England and you either create a new Anglican church to replace it or it reverts to the supremacy of Rome
    What's wrong with appointing Justin + Cantuar as the Suipreme Governor, or a rotating convener Moderator-style? Why does it have to be the Queen (in principle) or Boris Johnson (in reality)? Might get away from Henry VIII's sex life if you do.
    As it would cease to be the Church of England that is why, the C of E's foundation stone was as the established church with the monarch as Supreme Governor, without that a new successor Anglican Church would have to be created or it would revert to its Supreme Head being the Pope
    So basically Henry VIII's sex life is the really, really important thing?

    This is utterly mindblowing from a Scottish perspective, where the entire trend of Scottish history was to keep kings' and lairds' paws off the kirk, which was guaranteed in the Treaty of Union.

    I'd like to see the court cases arising from yoiur assertion that the C of E woul;d revert to the Papacy, in view of what ydoethur says - make the rows between the various Presbyterian splits as to who got what look like an aquarium of kissing gourami by comparison.
    Given there are 841,053 Catholics in Scotland, a large number of whom vote SNP in the central belt, I would not be so dismissive of them
    That's very specific. Did you ask them to all standstill while you counted them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    alex_ said:

    nico679 said:

    Latest Rasmussen poll for Pennsylvania.

    Biden 50

    Trump 47

    Those who’ve voted already .

    Biden 78

    Trump 19

    Any hints from party affiliations of how many Republicans may be switching straight to Biden? I suppose where they are they are more likely to be found among the early voters (both because it might indicate taking Covid more seriously, and also they may want to get in there early in case something tempts them to change their mind.
    I have no feel as to how those who have already voted are being reported in the polls. There might be those who have already cast ballots who refuse to day how they have voted or say they don't know or whatever.

    I'm just wondering if this might show as a tightening of polls as all the evidence is those who have already voted are strongly for Biden while those who will vote on the day are strongly pro-Trump.

    Just a thought...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    No attendance allowed at the footy, but this is ok...

    BBC News - 'Absolute carnage' at Thorpe Park Fright Night
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54617387

    The government hating the working classes, and the working classes love soccer.

    I wonder if the ban on football fans is to do with Marcus Rashford continually embarrassing the government?
    Sport is more than football and no sport has fans in the UK. Anyway football at premiership level is more a middle class spectator sport
    I’m sure there’s a missing word there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    No attendance allowed at the footy, but this is ok...

    BBC News - 'Absolute carnage' at Thorpe Park Fright Night
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-54617387

    The government hating the working classes, and the working classes love soccer.

    I wonder if the ban on football fans is to do with Marcus Rashford continually embarrassing the government?
    Sport is more than football and no sport has fans in the UK. Anyway football at premiership level is more a middle class spectator sport
    I attend a lot of premier league football matches and I'm not middle class.
    Upper class people are allowed in as well.
  • Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.
  • Sandpit said:

    Ooh, site back up. Don't Vanilla give notice of their site maintenance schedule?

    They do, but sometimes it is very short notice.

    My favourite was Disqus, who announced a worldwide scheduled maintenance on the evening of the 6th of November 2012 and the early hours of 7th of November 2012.

    Which happened to be the night of the US Presidential election.

    Lucky for us, sites like the Telegraph and other organisations that used Disqus kicked off.
  • I can never understand how the religious faithful get offended: surely the eternal damnation that they know the blasphemers will soon be be suffering is enough in itself to keep them quietly smug and contented.


    The bit I never understand is this - in the Abrahamic religions, God is utterly all powerful. He constructed the universe. How do you offend a being like that, exactly? Let alone attack him....

    Not like the Greek Gods who were just Homelander with better press, for the most part.
    The Greek Gods are fun.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    edited October 2020
    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    Actually I'm not far out the estimate for keeping it TfL going for 2 weeks is £113m see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54568920

    It's definitely 1 rule for London, another for everywhere else.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Do you think by the time we get to the third wave the councils will be haggling to get £600k from the government let alone £60m?
  • eek said:

    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.
  • This article is being shared a lot in Greater Manchester, and especially in the social media comments on MEN stories.

    https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1318594411878645762
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    I can never understand how the religious faithful get offended: surely the eternal damnation that they know the blasphemers will soon be be suffering is enough in itself to keep them quietly smug and contented.


    The bit I never understand is this - in the Abrahamic religions, God is utterly all powerful. He constructed the universe. How do you offend a being like that, exactly? Let alone attack him....

    Not like the Greek Gods who were just Homelander with better press, for the most part.
    The Greek Gods are fun.
    I really do think that Homelander is a pretty good impression of what being around Ares would have been like. Demented toddler.....
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939

    eek said:

    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.
    Where is the £20bn+ that is required for that to occur to come from?

    The drivers don't actually do much but do act as an additional safety point.
  • eek said:

    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.
    and cut services to the bones and stop all discretionary spending immediately, like happening on Metrolink?

    Mothball things like the Northern Line extension to Battersea ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779


    I attend a lot of premier league football matches and I'm not middle class.

    What about those attending horse race meetings?

    I suppose if you go in the Members Enclosure you are upper class, if you are in Grandstand you are middle class and if you are in the Silver Ring or Family Enclosure you are working class.

    In truth, that was the original division.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.
    Where is the £20bn+ that is required for that to occur to come from?

    The drivers don't actually do much but do act as an additional safety point.
    Borrowing to invest. Long term it should more than repay itself.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779

    eek said:

    Zerohedge as the FT article isn't up yet

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1318615819610357765

    I suspect £60m will be used up within a week keeping TFL going (haven't they had £1.8bn so far).

    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.
    Perhaps Boris, like Benito, is going to pledge to make the trains (as well as the trams, tubes, buses and clippers) run on time.

    TfL is effectively under Government financial control and London has paid a heavy price for that support.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779


    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.

    Oh dear, are you still on your anti-Union soapbox?

    London Underground needs a complete overhaul of infrastructure - signalling, stations, track, trains. That'll cost a good few billion but we can presumably add that to our borrowing or sell the country to Disney who can re-brand it as the United Magic Kingdom.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    "Mr Burnham says the money would top up people's salaries to 80%."

    The problem is, once you do this for Manchester, everybody will demand it. I can see how is it problematic.

    Why would it be problematic to help those on low pay prevented from working and earning?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    stodge said:


    I attend a lot of premier league football matches and I'm not middle class.

    What about those attending horse race meetings?

    I suppose if you go in the Members Enclosure you are upper class, if you are in Grandstand you are middle class and if you are in the Silver Ring or Family Enclosure you are working class.

    In truth, that was the original division.
    I remember an article attacking rowing for being upper class and exclusionary.

    It was next to an article by David Mellor explaining why he thought 30K a year for box seats at Chelsea was good value.
  • Cyclefree said:

    "Mr Burnham says the money would top up people's salaries to 80%."

    The problem is, once you do this for Manchester, everybody will demand it. I can see how is it problematic.

    algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    What's the money actually for? Presumably this isn't individual support for workers or businesses, but a bung to City Hall Manchester.
    Mostly workers, it is designed to ensure there's a decent furlough scheme.
    So if the govt agreed, everyone else would say "Why can't we have that? Why is Manchester special?"
    Manchester is special, because it is in the North, where all the good stuff is happening.

    It's a fraction of the money, the billions in fact the government happily spends on Londoners, like Crossrail.

    The safety of Northerners is worth less in the eyes of Boris Johnson than the cost of making commuting easier for Southern jessies.
    If the gap of £5m is so tiny then the criticism of the failure to agree applies equally to both sides in the negotiation. Why on earth is Burnham risking losing out more than £5m by wanting more than the offer? it is just as good a question as the questions asked of government.

    Maybe the real divide is a bigger issue somewhere.

    The inference has been the government up until after they pulled out of talks would always pay the figure they had offered.
    The Lancashire council leader had said last week that they only accepted tier 3 as otherwise the funding would be zero.

    Publicly agree with Johnson if your local citizens are to get their share of public money. Disagree and their share goes somewhere else.

    When was the last time we had a more perverse government?
    If true, the government may be legally vulnerable were a challenge to be brought.
    Judge says "don't do that again" (I doubt they care) or a real enforceable sanction?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    Risky Sunak. 😀👌
  • stodge said:


    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.

    Oh dear, are you still on your anti-Union soapbox?

    London Underground needs a complete overhaul of infrastructure - signalling, stations, track, trains. That'll cost a good few billion but we can presumably add that to our borrowing or sell the country to Disney who can re-brand it as the United Magic Kingdom.
    How is it a soapbox?

    Driverless technology is efficient, safe, reliable, cheaper in the long term and has been used successfully across the globe for decades now.

    That it reduces the likelihood of strikes bringing the transport of millions to a grinding halt is a bonus.

    Can you give me one good reason why it is a bad idea?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Allah has anointed me to be the Supreme Governor of the Church of England.

    So when can I take up the job?

    Would you do something crazy. Like order Ribena and pizza with pineapple to be served at communion?
    Nah, I'd keep the bread and wine, and introduce a third element.


    Thank goodness blasphemous libel isn't a thing.
    Indeed, lucky for me that Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got way out of hand.
    Also just as well for you most Christians are rather more tolerant of disrespectful treatment of Jesus Christ and the Virgin Mary than the most hardline Muslims are of disrespectful treatment of the Prophet Muhammad
    A difference of a few hundred years, that is all.
    And a few thousand miles. There are parts of Africa where the same nastiness happens in the name of Christ. Really nasty post there HYFUD, even you're better than that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    stodge said:


    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.

    Oh dear, are you still on your anti-Union soapbox?

    London Underground needs a complete overhaul of infrastructure - signalling, stations, track, trains. That'll cost a good few billion but we can presumably add that to our borrowing or sell the country to Disney who can re-brand it as the United Magic Kingdom.
    The next generation of train signalling, generally, will reduce train drivers to having an emergency "stop" button, pretty much.

    IIRC the Victoria line is actually setup to run driverless. But never actually done.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    The hospitality industry is completely screwed up here, I walked past Nandos as well which is always horribly over-crowded and there was only one table out of about 50 with people on it.

    I'm not a big fan of governments throwing money at struggling businesses, but it's hard to not feel bad for the owners and staff of these places. Without some sort of bailout there will be massive closures.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    There are two explanations for what the government’s strategy is (see https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/what-is-sunak-up-to/)m-

    1. It is petty, spiteful and vengeful and wants to undermine, where it cannot control, Labour Mayors and anyone else who opposes the government.

    2. Sunak has realised what the cost of a No Deal Brexit will be and needs all the money he can get for that.

    Neither bode well. Nor are they mutually exclusive.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I hope enough do. I support Labour on this one. Brady might be tempted under the circumstances.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Cyclefree said:

    There are two explanations for what the government’s strategy is (see https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/what-is-sunak-up-to/)m-

    1. It is petty, spiteful and vengeful and wants to undermine, where it cannot control, Labour Mayors and anyone else who opposes the government.

    2. Sunak has realised what the cost of a No Deal Brexit will be and needs all the money he can get for that.

    Neither bode well. Nor are they mutually exclusive.

    There is a 3 (which is also not mutually exclusive):

    Sunak is as much as an idealogue as the rest of the cabinet, only his pet obsession is the national debt and he refuses to take advantage of low rates and a powerful central bank out of principle.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are two explanations for what the government’s strategy is (see https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/what-is-sunak-up-to/)m-

    1. It is petty, spiteful and vengeful and wants to undermine, where it cannot control, Labour Mayors and anyone else who opposes the government.

    2. Sunak has realised what the cost of a No Deal Brexit will be and needs all the money he can get for that.

    Neither bode well. Nor are they mutually exclusive.

    There is a 3 (which is also not mutually exclusive):

    Sunak is as much as an idealogue as the rest of the cabinet, only his pet obsession is the national debt and he refuses to take advantage of low rates and a powerful central bank out of principle.
    Those are excellent principles in normal times and I would applaud him normally for it. These are not normal times.

    Next year may be time to reign it in. Not today.
  • I can never understand how the religious faithful get offended: surely the eternal damnation that they know the blasphemers will soon be be suffering is enough in itself to keep them quietly smug and contented.


    The bit I never understand is this - in the Abrahamic religions, God is utterly all powerful. He constructed the universe. How do you offend a being like that, exactly? Let alone attack him....

    Not like the Greek Gods who were just Homelander with better press, for the most part.
    The Greek Gods are fun.
    I wonder if Boris's classical education is part of our collective problem.

    Famously, he has had the ambition to be some sort of God since he was tiny.

    In the Abrahamic religions, that means a God who is powerful, happy to smite, but responsible and promise-keeping. Kind of the TMay on a good day of deities.

    Whereas BoJo sees himself as more of a Greek God, doing anything and anyone more or less on personal whim.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    The hospitality industry is completely screwed up here, I walked past Nandos as well which is always horribly over-crowded and there was only one table out of about 50 with people on it.

    I'm not a big fan of governments throwing money at struggling businesses, but it's hard to not feel bad for the owners and staff of these places. Without some sort of bailout there will be massive closures.
    It isn't often I agree with you (being something of a fan of throwing government money at things) but here I think we're in accord. You need financial support for business no matter what your strategy is because either cases rise and people stop going out (rendering many businesses temporarily unviable) or you impose restrictions which impose burdens on businesses and therefore they need financial support. The government just doesn't get this and has created a web of perverse incentives instead.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Jonathan said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    Risky Sunak. 😀👌
    My Dad saw that one somewhere a few months ago. Rishi Rich was the other one I heard. Either way, some of the polish seems to have come off.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779



    How is it a soapbox?

    Driverless technology is efficient, safe, reliable, cheaper in the long term and has been used successfully across the globe for decades now.

    That it reduces the likelihood of strikes bringing the transport of millions to a grinding halt is a bonus.

    Can you give me one good reason why it is a bad idea?

    The DLR is driverless but it's not staff-less. Every DLR train has a crew member on board to provide advice and to be honest a degree of authority and security if a passenger is taken ill or needs assistance.

    If you are advocating replacing a driver but keeping some staff presence on trains, then we have no real argument but if you are advocating having no staff on trains, then I fundamentally disagree with you.

    The thrust of your argument seems to be that staff=unions=strikes. Perhaps a less confrontational approach to industrial relations from all sides would be helpful unless you have a notion all strikes should be made illegal which I could support as long as arbitration on wage disputes was made legally binding on all sides.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,301
    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited October 2020

    Interesting that the owner of that account is more keen to reassure people about their Brexit purity than anything else.

    https://twitter.com/MancTories/status/1318603151159734273
    It remains remarkable that some Tories appear so surprised to suddenly discover that Bozo is a serial liar whose word is pretty much worthless, when his history of dishonesty has always been in plain view for everyone to see.
    Scott_xP said:
    Tactically clever of Labour to find a wedge between the new northern Tory MPs and the rest. Handing them the choice between becoming rebels or giving Labour a stick to beat them with in local campaigning.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    OnboardG1 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are two explanations for what the government’s strategy is (see https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/what-is-sunak-up-to/)m-

    1. It is petty, spiteful and vengeful and wants to undermine, where it cannot control, Labour Mayors and anyone else who opposes the government.

    2. Sunak has realised what the cost of a No Deal Brexit will be and needs all the money he can get for that.

    Neither bode well. Nor are they mutually exclusive.

    There is a 3 (which is also not mutually exclusive):

    Sunak is as much as an idealogue as the rest of the cabinet, only his pet obsession is the national debt and he refuses to take advantage of low rates and a powerful central bank out of principle.
    Those are excellent principles in normal times and I would applaud him normally for it. These are not normal times.

    Next year may be time to reign it in. Not today.
    As I said to DA, pandemics make strange bedfellows. I agree completely. Churchill didn't suddenly say in 1942: "Oh this is all getting a bit expensive isn't it, let's cut the number of aircraft we produce and cancel the next flight of Destroyers".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Yorkcity said:

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.
    That’s irrational. And when decisions are made irrationally you have scope for legal challenge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    If Scotland follows Wales, we can count the days before Bozo follows them both.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Allah has anointed me to be the Supreme Governor of the Church of England.

    So when can I take up the job?

    Would you do something crazy. Like order Ribena and pizza with pineapple to be served at communion?
    Nah, I'd keep the bread and wine, and introduce a third element.


    Thank goodness blasphemous libel isn't a thing.
    Indeed, lucky for me that Christianity is just one woman's lie about adultery that got way out of hand.
    Well at least they don't follow a pedo prophet that had sex with a nine year old girl.
    Do you have any evidence that Jesus did not have sex with eight year old boys?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    stodge said:



    How is it a soapbox?

    Driverless technology is efficient, safe, reliable, cheaper in the long term and has been used successfully across the globe for decades now.

    That it reduces the likelihood of strikes bringing the transport of millions to a grinding halt is a bonus.

    Can you give me one good reason why it is a bad idea?

    The DLR is driverless but it's not staff-less. Every DLR train has a crew member on board to provide advice and to be honest a degree of authority and security if a passenger is taken ill or needs assistance.

    If you are advocating replacing a driver but keeping some staff presence on trains, then we have no real argument but if you are advocating having no staff on trains, then I fundamentally disagree with you.

    The thrust of your argument seems to be that staff=unions=strikes. Perhaps a less confrontational approach to industrial relations from all sides would be helpful unless you have a notion all strikes should be made illegal which I could support as long as arbitration on wage disputes was made legally binding on all sides.
    Also driverless is great when you start from at the development stage for the network to be driverless. You can't easily retrospectively make a network driverless as a lot of things are required to make it driverless such as track barriers with gates. And to get track barriers you need to increase the platform size which means complex engineering at all old stations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Into the final fortnight of the US Presidential campaign we go and every poll is minutely over-analysed to see what is or may be happening.

    An inference of polls this evening but confirming Florida, Georgia and Ohio are all TCTC and suggesting North Carolina remains very close though with advantage Biden.

    Looking further afield, Biden up 49-44 in Minnesota which would be unremarkable and fit the narrative of a 2% national swing.

    Two polls from the reddest of Red states - in Arkansas which Trump won by 27 in 2016, a poll puts Trump ahead 58-34 so a tiny movement from 2016 and it looks as those someone touted for the 2024 GOP nomination, Tom Cotton, will be easily returned

    https://talkbusiness.net/2020/10/trump-cotton-on-cruise-control-for-re-election/

    In Kentucky, which Trump won by 30 last time, a Mason-Dixon poll puts him 17 ahead so a more noticeable 6.5% swing to Biden.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Mason_Dixon_Kentucky_October_20,_2020.pdf

    Conflicting national polls - the daily IBD/TIPP poll has Biden ahead 48-46 which is the closest it's been for some time but a Siena poll for the New York Times has Biden ahead 50-41

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us101520-crosstabs1/016bc5d8ae03038c/full.pdf

    Even with huge margins of error, that's a considerable divergence.

    I've moved Florida back to TCTC leaving Biden ahead 284-163 with 91 TCTC at this stage.

    Tom Cotton does not have a Democratic opponent, so his re-election will be a cinch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Cyclefree said:

    That’s irrational. And when decisions are made irrationally you have scope for legal challenge.

    Which is why BoZo and Dom are so keen to neuter Judicial review
  • I notice Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear there is no negotiations with individual regions in Scotland going into different tiers.

    She will decide when and what are the conditions. Exactly the right approach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited October 2020

    I can never understand how the religious faithful get offended: surely the eternal damnation that they know the blasphemers will soon be be suffering is enough in itself to keep them quietly smug and contented.


    The bit I never understand is this - in the Abrahamic religions, God is utterly all powerful. He constructed the universe. How do you offend a being like that, exactly? Let alone attack him....

    Not like the Greek Gods who were just Homelander with better press, for the most part.
    The Greek Gods are fun.
    I wonder if Boris's classical education is part of our collective problem.

    Famously, he has had the ambition to be some sort of God since he was tiny.

    In the Abrahamic religions, that means a God who is powerful, happy to smite, but responsible and promise-keeping. Kind of the TMay on a good day of deities.

    Whereas BoJo sees himself as more of a Greek God, doing anything and anyone more or less on personal whim.
    You mean he’s underestimated the casework load that goes with the job? Again.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,301
    Love “an inference of polls” - that’s the official collective noun sorted @stodge
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    As well as being a really well designed web page it is devestating AF on Trump and the CoronVirus

    https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/politics/covid-disappearing-trump-comment-tracker/index.html

    Places Trump's words next to the case figures.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939

    stodge said:


    If they do take control then they should ensure it is reformed with driverless trains rolled out before it is handed back.

    Oh dear, are you still on your anti-Union soapbox?

    London Underground needs a complete overhaul of infrastructure - signalling, stations, track, trains. That'll cost a good few billion but we can presumably add that to our borrowing or sell the country to Disney who can re-brand it as the United Magic Kingdom.
    The next generation of train signalling, generally, will reduce train drivers to having an emergency "stop" button, pretty much.

    IIRC the Victoria line is actually setup to run driverless. But never actually done.
    As I've posted already, the lack of trackside barriers at stations makes it impossible for the Victoria line to run driverless - the trains do require someone in the cabin to react to emergencies (if nothing else).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,301
    Edit: I see @stodge has done his nightly roundup, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    But the state polls are almost universally awful for him. Tied in GA with Siena and behind a point in Ohio with Ras - which is usually fairly GOP friendly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Anecdotal time, went out for lunch to a restaurant that is normally 75% full and we were the only people in there.

    The owner said that it's been almost completely empty for the last 3 weeks and they want the government to close restaurants up here and give them some financial help instead. At least on furlough they were able to pay the staff wages.

    There's a superb article in the NS today by Stephen Bush which points out that the Welsh firebreak is both a means to reduce the incidence rate and the only way to extract any financial support for businesses thanks to Risky being a tightfist. I'd put money on Scotland following in short order because the same logic applies. It's difficult to see what else they're going to do with the perverse incentive in play of the "only placed closed by government fiat get support" strategy.
    If Scotland follows Wales, we can count the days before Bozo follows them both.
    Nicola announced today she is putting a tiering system in place and it will be discused by MSP's next week

    Also JVT was clear today he supports local lockdowns
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    I notice Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear there is no negotiations with individual regions in Scotland going into different tiers.

    She will decide when and what are the conditions. Exactly the right approach.

    Quite what they thought they would accomplish by doing it via negotiation escapes me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273
    edited October 2020

    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    Yeah, hard to know what to make of that one. IBD Tipp are pretty good. They have been on the low side for Trump generally but that's a real outlier. If you ignore it, it was on the whole a pretty good day for the Challenger but you can't just dismiss it.

    Anyway it's yanked down 538's National Polling Average - Biden's lead now down to 10.3% whilst Trump's winning probability is up one to 13%.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    Not sure if this one was posted earlier
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318573194723397637

    Biden up by just over 5% in Arizona, interesting thing here is this pollster (think they are A rated by 538) is a local one in Phoenix so closer to the action. Think their last one was +2 or +3 so a slight uptick for Joe but if he gains Arizona it gives him options on how to reach 270.
  • stodge said:



    How is it a soapbox?

    Driverless technology is efficient, safe, reliable, cheaper in the long term and has been used successfully across the globe for decades now.

    That it reduces the likelihood of strikes bringing the transport of millions to a grinding halt is a bonus.

    Can you give me one good reason why it is a bad idea?

    The DLR is driverless but it's not staff-less. Every DLR train has a crew member on board to provide advice and to be honest a degree of authority and security if a passenger is taken ill or needs assistance.

    If you are advocating replacing a driver but keeping some staff presence on trains, then we have no real argument but if you are advocating having no staff on trains, then I fundamentally disagree with you.

    The thrust of your argument seems to be that staff=unions=strikes. Perhaps a less confrontational approach to industrial relations from all sides would be helpful unless you have a notion all strikes should be made illegal which I could support as long as arbitration on wage disputes was made legally binding on all sides.
    No I am not advocating staffless trains, I am advocating driverless like the DLR. Exactly like the DLR.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675

    You know, I can't help feeling that maybe Boris isn't terribly good at this governing malarkey.

    If only there had been some kind of clue.

    A warning, perhaps...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    Are the Liverpool politicians regretting not having a big bust up with the government? Or is the shit getting real there?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    .
    Commercial contracts good; social contracts bad.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    You know, I can't help feeling that maybe Boris isn't terribly good at this governing malarkey.

    Who knew? 🤷‍♂️
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    edited October 2020

    You know, I can't help feeling that maybe Boris isn't terribly good at this governing malarkey.

    What has changed for you to make this realisation now? Surely there was a previous event where it become obvious.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I notice Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear there is no negotiations with individual regions in Scotland going into different tiers.

    She will decide when and what are the conditions. Exactly the right approach.

    Aberdeen Council tried to give it the "we won't comply" big guy act when the local lockdown was introduced back in August but they folded within hours.
  • stodge said:



    How is it a soapbox?

    Driverless technology is efficient, safe, reliable, cheaper in the long term and has been used successfully across the globe for decades now.

    That it reduces the likelihood of strikes bringing the transport of millions to a grinding halt is a bonus.

    Can you give me one good reason why it is a bad idea?

    The DLR is driverless but it's not staff-less. Every DLR train has a crew member on board to provide advice and to be honest a degree of authority and security if a passenger is taken ill or needs assistance.

    If you are advocating replacing a driver but keeping some staff presence on trains, then we have no real argument but if you are advocating having no staff on trains, then I fundamentally disagree with you.

    The thrust of your argument seems to be that staff=unions=strikes. Perhaps a less confrontational approach to industrial relations from all sides would be helpful unless you have a notion all strikes should be made illegal which I could support as long as arbitration on wage disputes was made legally binding on all sides.
    No I am not advocating staffless trains, I am advocating driverless like the DLR. Exactly like the DLR.
    It will be fascinating to watch the Bakerloo go driverless as it runs on NR metals north of Queens Park, or the Metropolitan. You see the thing is the DLR is a purpose built entirely separated system. And most of TfL is not. Even if they can rebuild some of the tube lines to be fully automated - and the cost of zillions - they can't do all. Nor can they do Overground lines.

    Its a nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    I can never understand how the religious faithful get offended: surely the eternal damnation that they know the blasphemers will soon be be suffering is enough in itself to keep them quietly smug and contented.

    There is doubt as well as faith.
    The easily offended suffer more of the former.
  • Scott_xP said:

    You know, I can't help feeling that maybe Boris isn't terribly good at this governing malarkey.

    If only there had been some kind of clue.

    A warning, perhaps...
    You mean, like this?

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, this government won’t be saying ‘A Lannister always pays his debts.’
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779


    No I am not advocating staffless trains, I am advocating driverless like the DLR. Exactly like the DLR.

    I wouldn't be unhappy with that though you'd need a couple of staff members on some of the busier trains in the morning.

    The two big issues which concern passengers are information and assistance. As long as people know what is happening when their tube stops in a tunnel and/or the lights go out they don't panic. I've been there - it's a stressful situation but hearing the driver tell you what's happening is immensely re-assuring.

    The other situation is what to do if a passenger faints or is taken ill. Having knowledgeable and confident staff at times like that is really helpful whether they are at a station or on a train and the new "through" trains would be hugely helpful in allowing staff to move up and down the train to render assistance.

    The drivers do all that now as well as drive the train - they do maintenance when doors don't open or close properly for example. It's a lot more than sitting up the front.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Mal557 said:

    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    Not sure if this one was posted earlier
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318573194723397637

    Biden up by just over 5% in Arizona, interesting thing here is this pollster (think they are A rated by 538) is a local one in Phoenix so closer to the action. Think their last one was +2 or +3 so a slight uptick for Joe but if he gains Arizona it gives him options on how to reach 270.
    It would be an unusual evening if Biden gained AZ and not the Presidency.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Nigelb said:
    It's just Utah. They're all insanely nice there. Another part of the company I used to work at was based in SLC and they were the most charming people I've ever met. Don't think I'd ever want to live in SLC for other reasons (climate, urban planning etc) but the people were not one of them.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    OnboardG1 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are two explanations for what the government’s strategy is (see https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/19/what-is-sunak-up-to/)m-

    1. It is petty, spiteful and vengeful and wants to undermine, where it cannot control, Labour Mayors and anyone else who opposes the government.

    2. Sunak has realised what the cost of a No Deal Brexit will be and needs all the money he can get for that.

    Neither bode well. Nor are they mutually exclusive.

    There is a 3 (which is also not mutually exclusive):

    Sunak is as much as an idealogue as the rest of the cabinet, only his pet obsession is the national debt and he refuses to take advantage of low rates and a powerful central bank out of principle.
    Which shows he is not as clever as he - or others - think he is.

    I am a little frustrated because I know stuff about the firm Sunak worked at during the financial crisis and which played a less than honourable role during it - to put it very mildly indeed. It does not surprise me that Sunak is behaving in the way that he is and is one reason why I have not been a fan.
  • Scott_xP said:

    You know, I can't help feeling that maybe Boris isn't terribly good at this governing malarkey.

    If only there had been some kind of clue.

    A warning, perhaps...
    You mean, like this?

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    He's 100x better at this than May was though and you stayed for her. 🤷🏻‍♂️
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, this government won’t be saying ‘A Lannister always pays his debts.’
    Boris is going through the Moon Door within a year
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, this government won’t be saying ‘A Lannister always pays his debts.’
    We all know what they said about winter.

    Cue the teacher
    l
    l
    V
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Well, this government won’t be saying ‘A Lannister always pays his debts.’
    Boris is going through the Moon Door within a year
    A Stark image.

    But then, winter is coming.

    Good night.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    Hahahaha

    This government just demonstrates more and more incompetence every single day.

    Brilliant.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,056
    Mal557 said:

    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    Not sure if this one was posted earlier
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318573194723397637

    Biden up by just over 5% in Arizona, interesting thing here is this pollster (think they are A rated by 538) is a local one in Phoenix so closer to the action. Think their last one was +2 or +3 so a slight uptick for Joe but if he gains Arizona it gives him options on how to reach 270.
    But of course Biden cannot possibly win Arizona as Trafalgar has Trump +4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    I’m sure @stodge will roundup later, but it’s been a weird old day in the polls.

    Trumpton has a great national poll with IBD Tipp and even NYT at +9 is better than the polling average.

    Not sure if this one was posted earlier
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318573194723397637

    Biden up by just over 5% in Arizona, interesting thing here is this pollster (think they are A rated by 538) is a local one in Phoenix so closer to the action. Think their last one was +2 or +3 so a slight uptick for Joe but if he gains Arizona it gives him options on how to reach 270.
    It would be an unusual evening if Biden gained AZ and not the Presidency.
    Indeed but if Trafalgar is correct Trump could hold Michigan and possibly Wisconsin and lose Pennsylvania and Arizona (given their record was better in the MidWest than West in 2016).

    In which case it would be Trump 274 and Biden 264, the closest election since 2000 but Trump is re elected
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited October 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Are the Liverpool politicians regretting not having a big bust up with the government? Or is the shit getting real there?

    Shit got real, the Mayor's brother died in the last few days.
This discussion has been closed.