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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings – politicalbettin

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    New Thread Alert!
  • Andy Burnham has been elevated to cult meme status, it's such a shame he is not an MP
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Reporting day. Honestly, Horse, you're better than this kind of point scoring.
    We've had enough PB Tory point scoring the last few days, my turn now
    What point scoring? From what I've been reading basically everyone has been united against Boris and his idiotic stand against the North. Can you find anyone in support?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I swear it could be 4am on the 4th November, all the results are going in one direction, Fox News has just called Texas for Biden ...

    ... And HYUFD would be posting "but Trafalgar ..."

    https://twitter.com/paulsperry_/status/1318629111674359812?s=20
    It's weird, because if you go the Politico website, there doesn't seem to be any such story.
    'In any other year, Democrats would have a time-tested, if imperfect way to address their turnout concerns — thousands of volunteers and organizers knocking on doors to register voters and prod them to return their ballots. But Biden abandoned a door-knocking campaign due to concerns about the coronavirus until the final month of the election, ceding traditional field operations to Trump.

    The effect that decision will have on the outcome will be impossible to fully quantify until the election is over. But it is one likely reason that Republicans have been able to make registration gains in several states, including Florida, where the GOP has significantly narrowed the party’s voter registration gap with Democrats.'

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/trump-victory-democrats-election-430013

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    With Biden miles ahead in the polls and destined to win, one thing bothers me. There seems a real lack of public support for him, for example his rallies get about 10 people.

    Has a president ever won before with almost zero enthusiasm?

    Well he's not doing rallies because they have a raging pandemic over there.

    But it doesn't matter in any case. The election is about Donald Trump.

    8 years or was 4 sufficient? This is the question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    But I will leave the majority of you to your absolute certainty of a Biden landslide and ignore any evidence to the contrary, just hope you are right on election night.

  • With Biden miles ahead in the polls and destined to win, one thing bothers me. There seems a real lack of public support for him, for example his rallies get about 10 people.

    Has a president ever won before with almost zero enthusiasm?

    It's almost like the campaign has urged people not to attend because of Covid-19 and that Dems are more likely to believe that Covid-19 is real.
    Fair enough, but I think my point still stands as there is a fair enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden supporters, as yougov and others have noted:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap

    But perhaps Biden is fair enough ahead that is doesn't actually matter.
    Well that poll is nearly three months out of date, but see @Alistair's post at 9.07pm.
  • NEW THREAD

  • With Biden miles ahead in the polls and destined to win, one thing bothers me. There seems a real lack of public support for him, for example his rallies get about 10 people.

    Has a president ever won before with almost zero enthusiasm?

    It's almost like the campaign has urged people not to attend because of Covid-19 and that Dems are more likely to believe that Covid-19 is real.
    Fair enough, but I think my point still stands as there is a fair enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden supporters, as yougov and others have noted:

    https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/31/reality-check-trump-biden-enthusiasm-gap

    But perhaps Biden is fair enough ahead that is doesn't actually matter.
    Well that poll is nearly three months out of date, but see @Alistair's post at 9.07pm.
    Ah ok, well then he's got it in the bag then.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Never too sure with these covid denialists whether it's what they truly believe or whether it's just churning out the required product for profile and money.
  • Is that a chart of "Manchester" and not "Greater Manchester"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited October 2020

    Not much comment on here about today's reported death toll of 241. Yes, I know it's an inflated Tuesday figure, but it looks like we're heading for around 200 deaths a day next week. And yes, most of them will be elderly. But it seems to me we are too sanguine, even blase, about this. Imagine, say, a cruise ship with 1,000 elderly passengers sank, and 200 of them drowned while 800 were saved - that would be big news, and few would say, "well, they were pretty old". Then imagine the same happened the next day. And the day after that. And - you get my drift. This is happening with the virus, even though most old people are being very cautious and many are still rarely leaving the house.

    The infection case data suggests that any fall or levelling off is simply because it has stopped spreading through so many students, but in the meantime they have succeeded (unwittingly and unsurprisingly) in spreading it out into the community, including the over 60s.

    I'd like to think that the Great Barrington Declaration types and their followers on here would now reflect on what's happening and recognise that letting younger people catch the virus while protecting the elderly/vulnerable is a flawed strategy that would result in thousands of unnecessary deaths. But I doubt they will. They will, however, continue to rail against the collateral damage of undiagnosed/untreated cancer etc., while stubbornly failing to recognise that if we don't reduce Covid infections quickly then cancer treatments will become much harder to get when the hospitals are full of Covid patients.

    Absent a vaccine, there are two alternatives to targeted shielding of the vulnerable. One is to do nothing. The other is a treadmill of lockdowns.

    Lockdowns don't work because they cannot be sustained indefinitely, and if you relax them then the disease simply takes off again, in which case the effort expended on the lockdown was wasted (we only got such a large breathing space in Summer because the lockdown was relaxed gradually, and into the driest and warmest part of the year.) Presumably you're not in favour of doing nothing? That leaves shielding.

    It's shit but it's less shit than precipitating complete societal collapse by impoverishing everyone. In which case the frail people saved by the lockdowns just die of poverty and neglect anyway.
    We could consider a series of short pulsing lockdowns. Each one squashes the spread, then lift and let it rise again. Tedious, expensive, still lots of sickness and death but kept within NHS capacity. Since we appear incapable of test and isolate, I can't see a better way. So long as there is a realistic expectation of a good vaccine fairly soon, that is. Most of the population inoculated by (say) end of next year. If this prospect disappears then, yes, we have to look at some pretty grim options.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1318627367196237827

    That's sure to get the votes out for Sean Bailey! Lol

    Khan is Bailey's best and only hope.

    I think this dynamic where the Mayors and devolved assemblies are trying to find a way to be seen to be different is really very unfortunate. I'm sure that they're mostly doing what they think is best, but being a little different is a plus rather than a negative factor, particularly if it gets you on the BBC. I hope they realise that the confusion created is potentially costing lives and livelihoods.

    Perhaps there's some small positive in that the kerfuffle creates awareness.
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