Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings – politicalbettin

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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings – politicalbetting.com

RealClearPolitics – Election 2020 Favourability Ratings https://t.co/dqXHCwzkYV pic.twitter.com/9JBVtVu8cp

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Quincel

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

tlg86

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

williamglenn

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DeCLPwxXI

Quincel

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

tlg86

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DeCLPwxXI

It's one thing to lose to Obama, it's another to lose to Trump.

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

Some of us did predict Trump's 'Sleepy Joe' rhetoric managed to set the bar so low for Biden that he couldn't fail to clear it by some distance.

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

https://twitter.com/ArgusICraig/status/1318534847007232000

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1318536299461095425

Quincel

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DeCLPwxXI

I always thought that Obama was rather snide in that moment, at odds with his usual tone in politics even when dealing with political opponents.

edmundintokyo

Quincel said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DeCLPwxXI

I always thought that Obama was rather snide in that moment, at odds with his usual tone in politics even when dealing with political opponents.

I think he later said he didn't mean it to come out that way.

TheScreamingEagles

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

TimT

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

Stocky

Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.

FF43

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1318523872451452928

It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.

Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.

The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.

Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.

There is a more or less universal unwillingness to put a figure on how much is too much when it comes to the subject of the amount we will be asking our grandchildren to lend us for us to spend right now and for them to pay back after our day.

3 trillion? 4 trillion?.....

Remembering that we never even started paying back what we borrowed to cover the crisis of 2008 it seems to me this is a central question.

Who is representing our grandchildren's interest?

A years GDP would be fine imo. In the long run similar to taking a gap year personal finance wise.

Except that:

1. We are already at 100% of GDP.
2. Government spending is roughly 1/3 of GDP, so the deficit is three years’ spending, not one.

This is the most grotesquely corrupt regime in our lifetimes. I don't accept bungs to cronies of Johnson, Cummings and the various hangers-on should take priority over much smaller amounts on the ground that help mitigate the effects of the worst pandemic in a hundred years.

TimT

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1318536299461095425

Plenty of time for him to back out yet. Some of his comments seem to be setting the stage for that.

TheScreamingEagles

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

I suspect if it was Trump v. Clinton the dynamics would be different, I suspect the name Jeffrey Epstein would have been mentioned a lot, and not just by the QAnon mob.

williamglenn

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

Quincel

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1318536299461095425

Trump doesn't realise it but stricter rules will help him. People thought he lost the first debate largely on character and abrasiveness. He can't rein himself in, if the rules rein him in it will actually benefit him.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

edmundintokyo

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

Some of us did predict Trump's 'Sleepy Joe' rhetoric managed to set the bar so low for Biden that he couldn't fail to clear it by some distance.

It's kind of weird how the GOP failed to come up with a coherent attack. If you recall the Kerry flip-flops at the GOP convention, they'd picked on some attack lines early and stuck to them.

Part of it is that Biden is just a better candidate but I also think part of it is that Trump has lost touch. He used to run into normal people more - not just his fans - he'd go to MacDonalds, for example - and he used to watch (and tweet about) a wide range of TV, not just right-wing TV. Reportedly the people around him steered him away from channels that would upset him, and he's obviously surrounded by fans and sycophants.

Normally that wouldn't matter to much because you'd have a team doing focus groups and things, but if you have a leader who prefers to trust their own instincts, it's really important that they understand what's going on.

Nigelb

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

Going back to the Politico article yet again, Alberta points out that the boot is on the other foot this year.

...Generations of pollsters and journalists have fixated on the question of which candidate voters would rather have a beer with—a window into how personality translates into political success. Here’s the thing: Americans have been having a beer with Trump for the past four years—every morning, every afternoon, every evening. He has made himself more accessible than any president in history, using the White House as a performance stage and Twitter as a real-time diary for all to read. Like the drunk at the bar, he won’t shut up....
Whatever appeal his unfiltered thoughts once held has now worn off. Americans are tired of having beers with Trump.

TheScreamingEagles

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

Casino_Royale

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3DeCLPwxXI

Damning with faint praise from Brock there.

Casino_Royale

williamglenn said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

Are you backing Trump this time William like you did last time?

Casino_Royale

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

Yes, I think that's right.

LostPassword

I find it interesting that Trump has better favourability ratings now than he did in 2016.

This goes against all the received wisdom about the race - that the reality of Trump in office has turned people against him who gave him a chance, that all Biden has to do to win is avoid gaffes because Trump has defeated himself.

It shows that Biden will win only by actively proving that he is the better choice. He has to close the deal with the electorate.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1318540078940114944?s=20

Casino_Royale

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

It's one thing to lose to Obama, it's another to lose to Trump.

By the same token, Obama would thump Trump.

HYUFD

Biden is polling around his favourability rating ie 50/51%, however if Trump can get the 46% who do not consider him unfavourably, 48% with Rasmussen, to vote for him it could still be close

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318531492482527233?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318270038189682689?s=20

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

The beauty of the game though is that performance on the pitch determines places in competitions etc. Liverpool or Manchester United only get a spot in the Champions League if they earn it and either could theoretically be relegated from the Premier League. Not like other sports or America where "franchises" are guaranteed their place in competitions and can't be relegated.

Even as a Liverpool fan I would oppose anything that goes away from that competition. Liverpool's prestigious trophy cabinet is all because they earnt the spot in the competitions and won the trophies fair and square. Anything else devalues them.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318532048320139266?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318526771495636992?s=20

williamglenn

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

Are you backing Trump this time William like you did last time?

It's hard to see how he can win this time. I think Biden will be President.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526523750666242?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526532986482690?s=20

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

It's almost certainly just a negotiating ploy to get UEFA to sign up to an expanded Champions League with games played at weekends. If that happens, I hope we stand firm and play league games up against it and force those teams in Europe to play in two competitions at the same time.

Casino_Royale

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

Are you backing Trump this time William like you did last time?

It's hard to see how he can win this time. I think Biden will be President.

I meant, are you rooting for Trump to win like you did last time?

Last time you were a vocal supporter of his on here and said he'd be good for the USA.

TimT

williamglenn said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

I've been wracking my brain to come up with a suggestion as to who would have been a better candidate at this moment in history. While there are several I think would have been better Presidents, I cannot think of anyone who has as broad a voter appeal as Biden to natural Democrats across the spectrum, and to those non-Democrats who don't like Trump .

vs Hillary, I think Buttigieg would be closest. He would hold the Dem alliance together, save perhaps Black and Hispanic voters, but would appeal more to the anti-Trumpers than Hillary. My feel is that Hillary would win more Hispanics, but would again struggle with the Black vote and Bernie's supporters. Close call.

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1318540078940114944?s=20

Abolish the Lords.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1318543615392686080

NerysHughes

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526523750666242?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526532986482690?s=20

Just 9 % wearing masks yet cases far below most countries in Europe

Foxy

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

Some of us did predict Trump's 'Sleepy Joe' rhetoric managed to set the bar so low for Biden that he couldn't fail to clear it by some distance.

It's kind of weird how the GOP failed to come up with a coherent attack. If you recall the Kerry flip-flops at the GOP convention, they'd picked on some attack lines early and stuck to them.

Part of it is that Biden is just a better candidate but I also think part of it is that Trump has lost touch. He used to run into normal people more - not just his fans - he'd go to MacDonalds, for example - and he used to watch (and tweet about) a wide range of TV, not just right-wing TV. Reportedly the people around him steered him away from channels that would upset him, and he's obviously surrounded by fans and sycophants.

Normally that wouldn't matter to much because you'd have a team doing focus groups and things, but if you have a leader who prefers to trust their own instincts, it's really important that they understand what's going on.

One of the telling details about Trump is that his campaign has spent significantly on TV ads in DC, despite it being 95% Dem.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-400k-dc-ads-to-flatter-potus-beast-2020-6

theakes

Trump is picking up where it matters. Looking at things now he is neck and neck in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and close in Pennsylvania. 10 days time he will probably be ahead in each. His losses may be Arizona and Wisconsin. All sees him okay in the College. What then follows will probably be years of autocratic dictatorship, whatever Congress and the Senate say. Dystopian to put it mildly. We had better get back in the EU!.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318544481256353793

LostPassword

TheScreamingEagles said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

I suspect if it was Trump v. Clinton the dynamics would be different, I suspect the name Jeffrey Epstein would have been mentioned a lot, and not just by the QAnon mob.

Hillary Clinton received the lowest share of the vote for a Democrat candidate for President since Bill Clinton in 1992, when there was a strong third-party candidate, and this against Trump of all people.

Regardless of how much it's misogyny, or unjust character assassination from the Republicans over many decades (or perhaps warranted), she would have run a real risk of losing the popular vote against Trump if she'd run again.

kinabalu

Interesting chart. It looks like Trump got a boost when Covid hit. That was his big chance imo. The 2018 midterms were a message that he was going to be a one term president but Covid could have saved him. He just needed to preside as figurehead over a humane, non-chaotic response, drop the egotistical crap for a few months, and he would right now be looking at re-election on Nov 3rd rather than a crushing humiliation. What a shame.

edmundintokyo

theakes said:

Looking at things now he is neck and neck in ... Michigan

What things are you looking at specifically?

contrarian

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318544481256353793

Sadiq Khan calling for the abolition of the 10pm pub curfew in London

World class trolling

Gallowgate

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

rawzer

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

It's one thing to lose to Obama, it's another to lose to Trump.

By the same token, Obama would thump Trump.

Theres a 10.9% gap currently between Trumps Approve v Disapprove rating on 538, not a million miles from the poll gap

Philip_Thompson

contrarian said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318544481256353793

Sadiq Khan calling for the abolition of the 10pm pub curfew in London

World class trolling

While in Tier 2? That he asked for?

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_xP said:

twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318544481256353793

What a waste of a week. If we believe T3 says lives, how many has this delay cost?

Anabobazina

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

That's a nightmare poll for Biden.

NerysHughes

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Biden feels like one of those favourites that on all form has to win and then you watch the outsider romp home and you are left scratching your head.

Gallowgate

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

That's a nightmare poll for Biden.

May help the Dems avoid turnout complacency though. It's definitely an outlier compared to the other polls today.

Philip_Thompson

39 Tory rebels in the Lords vote. Not as many as I thought it might be.

Selebian

NerysHughes said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526523750666242?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526532986482690?s=20

Just 9 % wearing masks yet cases far below most countries in Europe

Also one of the least densely populated countries in Europe (yes, a crude measure, of course). I'd back that as a more significant factor.

TimT

edmundintokyo said:

theakes said:

Looking at things now he is neck and neck in ... Michigan

What things are you looking at specifically?

I suspect one Trafalgar poll. The rest have not been that close.

Anabobazina

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

That's a nightmare poll for Biden.

May help the Dems avoid turnout complacency though. It's definitely an outlier compared to the other polls today.

It only samples 200 people each day (it's a tracker with a total sample of 1,000) –– so today's sample must be extraordinarily good for Trump to push the numbers like that, as it's been largely static for a few days now.

It might just be noise – but it's an awful poll for Biden from a very good pollster.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

I suspect if it was Trump v. Clinton the dynamics would be different, I suspect the name Jeffrey Epstein would have been mentioned a lot, and not just by the QAnon mob.

Although his friendship with Trump has been raised a few times.

williamglenn

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

If Biden hadn't been an option, Hillary would probably nevertheless have been a stronger candidate against Trump than the others.

Are you backing Trump this time William like you did last time?

It's hard to see how he can win this time. I think Biden will be President.

I meant, are you rooting for Trump to win like you did last time?

Last time you were a vocal supporter of his on here and said he'd be good for the USA.

I'm not sure I went that far. I was positive about some of his foreign policy views and thought that a more isolationist US president would have positive effects on the rest of the world.

I think the US has serious political problems no matter who wins.

edmundintokyo

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

Alistair

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

It's one thing to lose to Obama, it's another to lose to Trump.

By the same token, Obama would thump Trump.

It is clear in the lead up to 2012 Obama was baiting Trump into running. I cannot imagine the stuffing Obama would have given Trump at the peak of his Birther conspiracy shit.

ydoethur

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TimT said:

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

I had a random thought this morning. Given Trump's predicament and how strong the headwinds against him have been from COVID would Hillary Clinton win if she had in fact run again and been renominated?

I suspect she'd have a smaller lead but still a lead, thanks to people going off Trump and more left-wing voters being brought behind the party by living through Trump's first term. But on the other hand I could well see some strong opposition to her by swing voters who felt she was showing sour grapes.

My gut is that a Hillary v Trump redux would be too close to call. There is a significant segment of the electorate who, rightly or wrongly, simply hate her - enough either to suppress their voting, or to push them back into the Trump camp.

I suspect if it was Trump v. Clinton the dynamics would be different, I suspect the name Jeffrey Epstein would have been mentioned a lot, and not just by the QAnon mob.

Hillary Clinton received the lowest share of the vote for a Democrat candidate for President since Bill Clinton in 1992, when there was a strong third-party candidate, and this against Trump of all people.

Regardless of how much it's misogyny, or unjust character assassination from the Republicans over many decades (or perhaps warranted), she would have run a real risk of losing the popular vote against Trump if she'd run again.

This post was truly prescient:

http://paullinford.blogspot.com/2008/01/us-elections.html

rkrkrk

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

*gulp*

OnlyLivingBoy

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526523750666242?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526532986482690?s=20

There's something specific to the Nordic countries in the dynamics of the Covid outbreak there. If you compare the current trajectory of cases across European countries, there are really just four which are not seeing exponential growth in new cases right now: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. (Perhaps Spain too, after implementing new measures, although signs that cases are going up there too). I'm not sure what it is, although given the well-established link between the spread of the disease and poverty and poor housing, I would imagine that their relatively egalitarian societies are one important factor. Given the commonalities across the four I am rather sceptical about explanations that focus on Sweden's particular policy approach.

TimT

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

That's a nightmare poll for Biden.

May help the Dems avoid turnout complacency though. It's definitely an outlier compared to the other polls today.

It only samples 200 people each day (it's a tracker with a total sample of 1,000) –– so today's sample must be extraordinarily good for Trump to push the numbers like that, as it's been largely static for a few days now.

It might just be noise – but it's an awful poll for Biden from a very good pollster.

If it's a 5-day tracker, it would be a combination of a very good day for Biden dropping out of the aggregate, and a very good day for Trump being added, not just all on one very good day for Trump.

I think we should be very skeptical of any very large moves in any of the pollsters. I simply don't think the electorate is that undecided.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

It's almost certainly just a negotiating ploy to get UEFA to sign up to an expanded Champions League with games played at weekends. If that happens, I hope we stand firm and play league games up against it and force those teams in Europe to play in two competitions at the same time.

You are Alan Hardaker and I claim my £5.

Gallowgate

theakes said:

Trump is picking up where it matters. Looking at things now he is neck and neck in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and close in Pennsylvania. 10 days time he will probably be ahead in each. His losses may be Arizona and Wisconsin. All sees him okay in the College. What then follows will probably be years of autocratic dictatorship, whatever Congress and the Senate say. Dystopian to put it mildly. We had better get back in the EU!.

He's not neck and neck in Michigan though.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1318549613557747722

Andy_JS

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526523750666242?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1318526532986482690?s=20

There's something specific to the Nordic countries in the dynamics of the Covid outbreak there. If you compare the current trajectory of cases across European countries, there are really just four which are not seeing exponential growth in new cases right now: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. (Perhaps Spain too, after implementing new measures, although signs that cases are going up there too). I'm not sure what it is, although given the well-established link between the spread of the disease and poverty and poor housing, I would imagine that their relatively egalitarian societies are one important factor. Given the commonalities across the four I am rather sceptical about explanations that focus on Sweden's particular policy approach.

I think we should compare Sweden to other countries excluding the Nordic ones.

noneoftheabove

Philip_Thompson said:

contrarian said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318544481256353793

Sadiq Khan calling for the abolition of the 10pm pub curfew in London

World class trolling

While in Tier 2? That he asked for?

They are separate measures. The reason for the 10pm curfew was apparently a compromise between the cabinet cliques with Hancocks wanting pubs shut, and Sunak pubs open, so 10pm curfew agreed. No science or logic behind it.

Gallowgate

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1318549613557747722

Yep. Bored AF.

Alistair

edmundintokyo said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

They forecast a Trump popular vote win in 2016

Andy_JS

LostPassword said:

I find it interesting that Trump has better favourability ratings now than he did in 2016.

This goes against all the received wisdom about the race - that the reality of Trump in office has turned people against him who gave him a chance, that all Biden has to do to win is avoid gaffes because Trump has defeated himself.

It shows that Biden will win only by actively proving that he is the better choice. He has to close the deal with the electorate.

YouGov is currently forecasting that Trump will retain about 97% of his votes from 2016: 44.7% compared to 46.1%.

https://today.yougov.com/2020-presidential-election

Scrapheap_as_was

Team Boris getting some practice in at PR after a no-deal outcome.... handy before the big one to come later in the season.

dixiedean

That £25 m Jenrick wangled for his own constituency would come in handy now.

kinabalu

Quincel said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1318536299461095425

Trump doesn't realise it but stricter rules will help him. People thought he lost the first debate largely on character and abrasiveness. He can't rein himself in, if the rules rein him in it will actually benefit him.

100% agree with this. Most of his 2016 vote are still with him. Over 90%. But he can't win with that. He needs to win some hearts & minds that at present are resolutely un-won. So he simply has to try his mightiest in this last debate to not be a dick. More than that, he must shine. Show us eloquence and a real depth of geopolitical knowledge. Show us a powerful intellect and a sense of personal integrity, both of which have remained hidden from the public for some reason. His compassion must be on show too. And empathy. Show us a man with a rich hinterland. A man who, if not quite a modern day cross between Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D Roosevelt, is truly worthy of the great office he is seeking to continue to hold. If he can do this on Thursday - gamechanger.

peter_from_putney

Stocky said:

Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.

IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high.
The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

They forecast a Trump popular vote win in 2016

It's the same as their poll at the start of October too. Nevertheless @MrEd , @Contrarian and @HYUFD will be doubtless all over this poll for at least the next week.

not_on_fire

Gallowgate said:

theakes said:

Trump is picking up where it matters. Looking at things now he is neck and neck in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and close in Pennsylvania. 10 days time he will probably be ahead in each. His losses may be Arizona and Wisconsin. All sees him okay in the College. What then follows will probably be years of autocratic dictatorship, whatever Congress and the Senate say. Dystopian to put it mildly. We had better get back in the EU!.

He's not neck and neck in Michigan though.

And Georgia being neck and neck is synonymous with an 8-10 point Biden lead nationally.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

It's almost certainly just a negotiating ploy to get UEFA to sign up to an expanded Champions League with games played at weekends. If that happens, I hope we stand firm and play league games up against it and force those teams in Europe to play in two competitions at the same time.

You are Alan Hardaker and I claim my £5.

Just because the likes of Hardaker were wrong to stand in the way of progress sixty years ago, doesn't mean that we should tolerate this.

HYUFD

Kaboom from IBID/TIPP now no change from 2016

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318548607772053512?s=20

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1318548680367132672

edmundintokyo

Alistair said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

They forecast a Trump popular vote win in 2016

538 rates them as A/B which is pretty good.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1318540078940114944?s=20

What did the last revolutionary, Oliver Cromwell, do to parliament? Dissolved the Commons and replaced the Lords.

Quincel

And Texas becomes the first state, two weeks from 'election day', to pass the 50% mark of total turnout in early votes alone.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

DecrepiterJohnL

peter_from_putney said:

Stocky said:

Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.

IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high.
The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.

Betfair's market percentage *is* still there provided you have set the market view to its minimum value (£2 iirc). If, like most people, you have increased it then the percentage is not shown. See the settings menu on the right hand side.

TheWhiteRabbit

peter_from_putney said:

Stocky said:

Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.

IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high.
The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.

I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?

Quincel

dixiedean said:

That £25 m Jenrick wangled for his own constituency would come in handy now.

Add it to the £45m he saved that property developer and we've for the £65m Greater Manchester asked for with £5m change.

TOPPING

I see in the same breath Sage is warning of the effects of the Govt's response on young people by eg. closing schools, while at the same time advocating for us all to go into extreme lockdown again.

HYUFD

HYUFD said:

Kaboom from IBID/TIPP now no change from 2016

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318548607772053512?s=20

'Joe Biden's lead among likely independent voters narrowed to a 45%-41% margin in IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update. Biden's lead had ranged from 6 points into the double digits.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is now having a much easier time corralling Republicans than Biden is having in nailing down Democratic votes. Biden leads 90%-7% among Democrats. Trump leads 94%-4% among Republicans.


Still, the latest Trump vs. Biden poll continues to highlight what could be a big problem for the president: wayward 2016 Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 7% say they now support Biden while 89% say they'll back him again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 3% say they support Trump, while 95% back the former vice president.

In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters (39%-30%) and nonvoters (57%-31%)....


Urban voters prefer Biden by nearly a 28-point margin, the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds. Rural voters back Trump by almost a 30-point margin. That's similar to 2016's divide.

Yet the suburbs may be the big difference this year. The IBD/TIPP presidential poll shows suburban voters back Biden vs. Trump, 50.5% to 42%. By comparison, exit polls from 2016 show Trump won the suburbs, 50%-45%....

The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men, 51%-42%, a bit more narrowly than his 11-point advantage in 2016.

Women favor the Democrat by 54%-41% in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update, a bit less than Trump's 15-point deficit among women in 2016.

White voters favor Trump by just under 13 points, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds.

Black voters back Biden, 88%-9%, in today's presidential poll update. That's slightly narrower than Clinton's 85-point advantage in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump trails Biden among Hispanics, 29%-65% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. In 2016, Trump lost among Hispanic voters, 28%-66%.'
https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

nichomar

HYUFD said:

Kaboom from IBID/TIPP now no change from 2016

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318548607772053512?s=20

Bloody childish kaboom

HYUFD

Alistair said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

They forecast a Trump popular vote win in 2016

They had Clinton 1% ahead on their 2 way poll, only 1% off

Theuniondivvie

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

edmundintokyo said:

Gallowgate said:

Oh boy.

Today's IBD/TIPP:

Biden 48 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)

Changes from yesterday.

Good on them for publishing it and not herding...

They forecast a Trump popular vote win in 2016

It's the same as their poll at the start of October too. Nevertheless @MrEd , @Contrarian and @HYUFD will be doubtless all over this poll for at least the next week.

Shyly, of course.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

I suspect the UEFA competitions will go the way of the Rumbelows Cup, and be played out by kids.

It's almost certainly just a negotiating ploy to get UEFA to sign up to an expanded Champions League with games played at weekends. If that happens, I hope we stand firm and play league games up against it and force those teams in Europe to play in two competitions at the same time.

You are Alan Hardaker and I claim my £5.

Just because the likes of Hardaker were wrong to stand in the way of progress sixty years ago, doesn't mean that we should tolerate this.

If it doesn't have annual qualification or promotion/relegation from this league then it should be avoided like a pizza with pineapple on it, and we should mock all those who like it.

Sandpit

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

Maybe something more like the Six Nations, where the clubs involved will have to field reserve teams as the first teams get called up?

CarlottaVance

Nigelb said:

tlg86 said:

Quincel said:

Good header, an important point to make. Another thing the chart makes clear is, remarkably, Biden's favourables have improved as the campaign has gone on.

She'd never admit it, but this has to be hurting Hillary Clinton a little bit.

Americans are tired of having beers with Trump.

I'll drink to that!

TheWhiteRabbit

Are the US pollsters under standard reportign restrictions for how people ACTUALLY voted?

I know Dornsife had to "add back in" already-voteds. Are other pollsters doing that? How lese do you poll Georgia or Texas?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318555379345797128

sarissa

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well.

Liverpool and Manchester United are in talks about a bombshell plot involving Europe's biggest football clubs to join a new FIFA-backed tournament that would reshape the sport's global landscape.

Sky News has learnt that financiers are assembling a $6bn (£4.6bn) funding package to assist the creation of what could become known as the European Premier League.

More than a dozen teams from England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are in negotiations about becoming founder members of the competition.

As many as five English clubs could sign up to join it, with a provisional start date said to have been discussed as early as 2022.

Sources said that FIFA, football's world governing body, had been involved in developing the new format, which is expected to comprise up to 18 teams, and involve fixtures played during the regular European season.

https://news.sky.com/story/top-english-clubs-in-bombshell-talks-to-join-european-premier-league-12109175

Is that in place of the regular league? In which case would there be relegation and promotions still? Or in place of the Champions League?

Surely can't be as well as both.

That's an average of close to £250 million average per club. Man Utd's players and playing staff cost about £350 million PA, so yes it's enough for a full European squad and a separate domestic one in addition.

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318555379345797128

That would be an act of supreme pettiness.