It's the same as their poll at the start of October too. Nevertheless @MrEd , @Contrarian and @HYUFD will be doubtless all over this poll for at least the next week.
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
I see in the same breath Sage is warning of the effects of the Govt's response on young people by eg. closing schools, while at the same time advocating for us all to go into extreme lockdown again.
Channeling TSE - lockdowns are the inverse of sexual prowess. Early & shorter is better than longer and later.
What's the money actually for? Presumably this isn't individual support for workers or businesses, but a bung to City Hall Manchester.
It's for top-ups to the national furlough, targeted to businesses affected by the Tier 3 rules. GM wanted the original 80% furlough scheme to simply cover the area as long as Tier 3 applied, but the government refused, so GM made a new offer of a fund the local government could allocate to workers in particular hardship instead of across the board extra wage support.
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
What's the money actually for? Presumably this isn't individual support for workers or businesses, but a bung to City Hall Manchester.
It's for top-ups to the national furlough, targeted to businesses affected by the Tier 3 rules. GM wanted the original 80% furlough scheme to simply cover the area as long as Tier 3 applied, but the government refused, so GM made a new offer of a fund the local government could allocate to workers in particular hardship instead of across the board extra wage support.
This sounds a very reasonable use of the money tbh. We've seen that the furlough scheme worked well in terms of preventing unemployment.
We need state polls with the how have you voted. Texas would be a good one seeing as the vote is already at 50% of 2016 levels.
Is there a site that says how many have voted as a proportion of last time? GitHub seem to have the number of voters but not as a proportion unless I'm missing it.
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Yes, each 5 days goes into making up 1/5 of a poll. The previous poll was 10 - 14th; this one is 15th - 19th October.
They had Clinton 1% ahead on their 2 way poll, only 1% off
Were there only two candidates in 2016? Because I remember there being some other ones.
Even looking only at their 2 way poll today, which was their most accurate poll in 2016, that would be Biden only 3% ahead in the popular vote ie the EC would be almost neck and neck
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Yes, each 5 days goes into making up 1/5 of a poll. The previous poll was 10 - 14th; this one is 15th - 19th October.
Sure, so tomorrow's will be 16-20 October right? So a four-day overlap?
We need state polls with the how have you voted. Texas would be a good one seeing as the vote is already at 50% of 2016 levels.
Is there a site that says how many have voted as a proportion of last time? GitHub seem to have the number of voters but not as a proportion unless I'm missing it.
You've missed the tab on the map, 'Turnout as Percent..'
Very little mail-voting in Texas, limited to over-65s and a few other special cases.
Republican attempts to suppress opposition votes in Texas shame a "democratic" country. I "drop-off" point for 4.7 million voters in Harris county. Not that Trump-fans seem bothered. I truly hope it all blows up in their faces and turnout is huge.
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Yes, each 5 days goes into making up 1/5 of a poll. The previous poll was 10 - 14th; this one is 15th - 19th October.
Sure, so tomorrow's will be 16-20 October right? So a four-day overlap?
I could be wrong but I think it next reports on 24th or 25th Oct. Covering the 5 days 20th - 24th.
The saddest bit about it is that even Bozo is not stupid enough to believe in it, particularly now. The lies just have to get bigger and bigger to try and save the tatters of whatever reputation this ludicrous excuse for a leader ever had.
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
It is difficult to imagine Trump more insufferable, but imagine what he will be like if he wins now? Euch!
I expect a modest 'This is the greatest comeback in the history of the known universe' or something similar even though he will almost certainly have lost the popular vote again.
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
TWR ... Interesting that this info is displayed on your equipment - are you using their app with an iphone/ Android or a laptop with Chrome/other?
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Yes, each 5 days goes into making up 1/5 of a poll. The previous poll was 10 - 14th; this one is 15th - 19th October.
Sure, so tomorrow's will be 16-20 October right? So a four-day overlap?
I could be wrong but I think it next reports on 24th or 25th Oct. Covering the 5 days 20th - 24th.
Christ on a bike, they publish every 5 days but on their website they do indeed poll every day.
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
Yep, if I were a Labour supporter I would want Starmer to keep pressing this message over and over for the next four years. If the Tories are not competent in government, what are they for?
It is difficult to imagine Trump more insufferable, but imagine what he will be like if he wins now? Euch!
I expect a modest 'This is the greatest comeback in the history of the known universe' or something similar even though he will almost certainly have lost the popular vote again.
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
Yes, but Truman's election was not an affront to human decency. Allowing such a sociopath to win a second time will be a big stain on America's reputation. I still hope for their sake and the world's that it cannot happen.
AIUI, the row between Burnham and Central Govt is over business support measures. Presumably to help businesses that are forced to close. Burnham has given up on enhanced furlough payments and the £22 million earmarked for track, trace and compliance has been agreed.
This is peanuts against the bungs dealt out to Johnson's and Cumming's cronies.
We need state polls with the how have you voted. Texas would be a good one seeing as the vote is already at 50% of 2016 levels.
Is there a site that says how many have voted as a proportion of last time? GitHub seem to have the number of voters but not as a proportion unless I'm missing it.
The Github Election Project I use does have a tab for votes as a % of 2016, to the right of the "Total Votes Cast" tab above the map
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
Yep, if I were a Labour supporter I would want Starmer to keep pressing this message over and over for the next four years. If the Tories are not competent in government, what are they for?
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
TWR ... Interesting that this info is displayed on your equipment - are you using their app with an iphone/ Android or a laptop with Chrome/other?
I am on PC, on Chrome.
I have the default three back columns, and three lay columns, of which the book percentage is displayed over the "outside" of the column (an option to back all/lay all appears in the centre)
We need state polls with the how have you voted. Texas would be a good one seeing as the vote is already at 50% of 2016 levels.
Is there a site that says how many have voted as a proportion of last time? GitHub seem to have the number of voters but not as a proportion unless I'm missing it.
You've missed the tab on the map, 'Turnout as Percent..'
Texas has added around 1.5m new voters since 2016, I think (nearly 10% of the electoral roll).
The saddest bit about it is that even Bozo is not stupid enough to believe in it, particularly now. The lies just have to get bigger and bigger to try and save the tatters of whatever reputation this ludicrous excuse for a leader ever had.
It really has been the political equivalent of a Ponzi scheme, hasn't it? And they only end one way.
What's the money actually for? Presumably this isn't individual support for workers or businesses, but a bung to City Hall Manchester.
Mostly workers, it is designed to ensure there's a decent furlough scheme.
But doesn't central govt pay that?!
The government scheme was at 67% of salary, Greater Manchester wanted it 80%.
And again it's another screw up because the Government isn't that bright.
Greater Manchester were arguing over the income of low paid workers so the Government should have said 80% for everyone earning up to £1800 a month and 66% for everyone above that.
It is difficult to imagine Trump more insufferable, but imagine what he will be like if he wins now? Euch!
I expect a modest 'This is the greatest comeback in the history of the known universe' or something similar even though he will almost certainly have lost the popular vote again.
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
Yes, but Truman's election was not an affront to human decency. Allowing such a sociopath to win a second time will be a big stain on America's reputation. I still hope for their sake and the world's that it cannot happen.
Most Americans will never have voted for Trump, it is the EC system that elected him in the first place and could re elect him.
Biden will almost certainly win the national popular vote as Hillary did
IBD / TIPP was Biden +3 at the start of October, Biden +8 mid October. It suggests nothing much has actually changed for a while to my mind.
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
The sample dates don't overlap from their previous poll - this is Oct 15 - 19, the previous was 10 - 14. I think you're thinking of Dornsife methodology.
You might be right but this seems to suggest otherwise?
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
Yes, each 5 days goes into making up 1/5 of a poll. The previous poll was 10 - 14th; this one is 15th - 19th October.
Sure, so tomorrow's will be 16-20 October right? So a four-day overlap?
I could be wrong but I think it next reports on 24th or 25th Oct. Covering the 5 days 20th - 24th.
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
TWR ... Interesting that this info is displayed on your equipment - are you using their app with an iphone/ Android or a laptop with Chrome/other?
I am on PC, on Chrome.
I have the default three back columns, and three lay columns, of which the book percentage is displayed over the "outside" of the column (an option to back all/lay all appears in the centre)
I see it on my iphone but not my PC. As I`m on my PC much more than my phone it is annoying as I dislike placing any bets unless I know the overround on the particular market.
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
It is nonsense though. Did the leaders in Liverpool not stand up for their constituents? As that would be implied. Burnham has done those he represents no favours. Besides Labour will always claim such things to be the case even when they are doing harm, and no amount of money would ever be enough for them.
The biggest bloody mistake with the 3 tier system was giving local leaders any options other than "pick you tier and get on with it". The last week or so has been a total waste of time, during which the virus has not been resting.
It is difficult to imagine Trump more insufferable, but imagine what he will be like if he wins now? Euch!
I expect a modest 'This is the greatest comeback in the history of the known universe' or something similar even though he will almost certainly have lost the popular vote again.
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
Yes, but Truman's election was not an affront to human decency. Allowing such a sociopath to win a second time will be a big stain on America's reputation. I still hope for their sake and the world's that it cannot happen.
Most Americans will never have voted for Trump, it is the EC system that elected him in the first place and could re elect him.
Biden will almost certainly win the national popular vote as Hillary did
Although Biden will probably break 50%, which Hillary never did.
We need state polls with the how have you voted. Texas would be a good one seeing as the vote is already at 50% of 2016 levels.
Is there a site that says how many have voted as a proportion of last time? GitHub seem to have the number of voters but not as a proportion unless I'm missing it.
The Github Election Project I use does have a tab for votes as a % of 2016, to the right of the "Total Votes Cast" tab above the map
Thank you. I had missed it on my phone, found it now.
Very little mail-voting in Texas, limited to over-65s and a few other special cases.
Republican attempts to suppress opposition votes in Texas shame a "democratic" country. I "drop-off" point for 4.7 million voters in Harris county. Not that Trump-fans seem bothered. I truly hope it all blows up in their faces and turnout is huge.
There are over 100 sites for early voting, though.
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
TWR ... Interesting that this info is displayed on your equipment - are you using their app with an iphone/ Android or a laptop with Chrome/other?
I am on PC, on Chrome.
I have the default three back columns, and three lay columns, of which the book percentage is displayed over the "outside" of the column (an option to back all/lay all appears in the centre)
Thanks for that info ... perhaps you're right and this issue relates to having an adblocker.
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
It is nonsense though. Did the leaders in Liverpool not stand up for their constituents? As that would be implied. Burnham has done those he represents no favours. Besides Labour will always claim such things to be the case even when they are doing harm, and no amount of money would ever be enough for them.
The biggest bloody mistake with the 3 tier system was giving local leaders any options other than "pick you tier and get on with it". The last week or so has been a total waste of time, during which the virus has not been resting.
From a purely party-political point of view, it's hard to see how the government could have played this Manchester stand-off worse. The overwhelming message is that Labour stands up for the hard-pressed families, Boris doesn't. Not clever.
Boris has offloaded responsibility for CV19 onto local and devolved government.
It's classic Boris. He sought to manoeuvre himself into a position where he could simply criticise others, rather than take responsibility as PM.
Whilst Manchester didn't play out as expected, and the idea of the PM acting this way is typically shameful, but I do wonder whether the approach will play off long term for Boris. Trump loves to blame the governors.
Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.
As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
It is difficult to imagine Trump more insufferable, but imagine what he will be like if he wins now? Euch!
I expect a modest 'This is the greatest comeback in the history of the known universe' or something similar even though he will almost certainly have lost the popular vote again.
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
Yes, but Truman's election was not an affront to human decency. Allowing such a sociopath to win a second time will be a big stain on America's reputation. I still hope for their sake and the world's that it cannot happen.
Most Americans will never have voted for Trump, it is the EC system that elected him in the first place and could re elect him.
Biden will almost certainly win the national popular vote as Hillary did
Although Biden will probably break 50%, which Hillary never did.
Indeed, it is even possible Trump wins the EC narrowly despite Biden winning the popular vote something like 50.5% to 47.5%.
You have to go back to 1876 when Democratic candidate Tilden got 50.9% and 184 EC votes and GOP candidate Hayes got 47.9% and 185 EC votes to find the last and only time a candidate got over 50% of the popular vote and still lost the EC and the presidency.
That election also had the highest turnout in US history of 81.8%
Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.
As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
Remember Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond, et al all voted for Brexit in the Commons more times than Boris Johnson and JRM, guess who got kicked out of the Tory party.
Boris Johnson is a manchild who doesn't like anyone who rebels against him.
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
What's the money actually for? Presumably this isn't individual support for workers or businesses, but a bung to City Hall Manchester.
Mostly workers, it is designed to ensure there's a decent furlough scheme.
So if the govt agreed, everyone else would say "Why can't we have that? Why is Manchester special?"
So give it to everyone who goes into Tier 3. Since Tier 3 is meant to be a last resort what is the issue? Still cheaper than a national firebreak.
No doubt, but it's Boris and the cabinet of fools that are counting coppers. Rishi has proved with this idiotic last stand that he's not fit to hold the office of PM.
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
Central government, as they would be the ones processing it all.
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
I still don't understand the thinking behind the 67% limit, surely it would have been better to lower the maximum to £2000 and keep the 80% rate if there needed to be savings.
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
TWR ... Interesting that this info is displayed on your equipment - are you using their app with an iphone/ Android or a laptop with Chrome/other?
I am on PC, on Chrome.
I have the default three back columns, and three lay columns, of which the book percentage is displayed over the "outside" of the column (an option to back all/lay all appears in the centre)
Thanks for that info ... perhaps you're right and this issue relates to having an adblocker.
Betfair > settings > betting > bet view = £2 as per previous answer. Does this not work for you?
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
Central government, as they would be the ones processing it all.
Yes but is it the payment of the furlough scheme individually to workers; or a direct grant to the council to pay the furlough scheme; or a direct grant to the Council to do whatever they want to while the central govt pays the furlough scheme aside from this?
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.
IIRC it disappeared some years ago, I suspect at Betfair's own instigation since it was never a plus factor in terms of encouraging punters to bet and could be a distinct disincentive as regards inactive markets, where the overround could be seen as being unattractively high. The fact that this info appears on Betfair's telephone app suggests that they used ancient software when setting this up and surprisingly haven't yet spotted its presence. As soon as they do I feel sure that it will disappear.
I have the overround displayed on mine (e.g. 112.2% back all presidential - I assume this is what you are talking about) - I can't see a setting though so a mystery. Could it be an overzealous adblock or similar?
You`re seeing on your PC??
Screenshot here, just in can I have misundestood what you are talking about:
You could add more to the list in the tweet - the Civil Service, the BBC, bishops etc. Johnson does seem to be picking battles with just about everybody apart from the government's most devout followers. It is bad politics to positively nurture so many enemies all at the same time. So many battles contemporaneously means the government is spreading itself too thinly, and alienating too many. I can't think of any previous regime in this country that has been less selective about its battles, and I suspect the hand of Dom is embedded in this. I think it will end in tears (once they've sorted out the tiers).
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
Given to the local authority to use "flexibly". Presumably there are constraints on the use of funds. But it won't be part of the furlough scheme.
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
Central government, as they would be the ones processing it all.
Yes but is it the payment of the furlough scheme individually to workers; or a direct grant to the council to pay the furlough scheme; or a direct grant to the Council to do whatever they want to while the central govt pays the furlough scheme aside from this?
The council set the criteria for the furlough, and the government worked out it would cost x million.
The government would then distribute that money (as it has tax code and personal allowance figures.)
Sorry to ask this again - but is the disputed £60m to be paid directly to workers by the central govt as part of the furlough scheme (whether 67% or 80%) or is it to be paid by central govt to Greater Manchester Council and therefore separate from the furlough scheme?
TIA
Central government, as they would be the ones processing it all.
Yes but is it the payment of the furlough scheme individually to workers; or a direct grant to the council to pay the furlough scheme; or a direct grant to the Council to do whatever they want to while the central govt pays the furlough scheme aside from this?
No, it's £60m in additional furlough funding for residents within the tier 3 restrictions, it would be handled by central government when companies in those areas make their furlough claims. The government pays them at 80% instead of 67%. Don't think there would be any money going to the council.
Comments
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1318556879077912578?s=20
But some pollsters do add them back, some make adjustments, but the lack of an American Polling Council makes things hard to analyse.
This was from a pollster last week.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1316813755678887942
Also if you can find the IBD 2016 2-way page on their site that would be great as everything goes to their 4-way page.
But it might be a precedent the EU might like in the event of No Deal.
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1318556959562412035?s=20
As @TimT rightly reminds us, it's a five-day tracker. So it must have had a very good Trump sample come in today and a very good Biden sample from five days ago drop out of the cohort. Let's just keep an eye on it tomorrow.
Early & shorter is better than longer and later.
Could have done without it, though, I must confess.
I will have 2-way, two separate 3-way polls (one with the libertarian candidate and on with the green candidate) and a 4way poll.
Also I will be offering an innovative 1-way projection. How would people vote if only Trump was standing?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1318548959506423815?s=20
So it's possible that come Nov 3rd the majority of Americans who plan to vote will have already voted?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1318558736823234561?s=20
The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents.
The Biden vs. Trump poll likely voter sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica applies a multimodal approach using "traditional" telephone methodology, with live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1318559497296687106?s=20
We've seen that the furlough scheme worked well in terms of preventing unemployment.
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
...but he still has Dom
Republican attempts to suppress opposition votes in Texas shame a "democratic" country. I "drop-off" point for 4.7 million voters in Harris county. Not that Trump-fans seem bothered. I truly hope it all blows up in their faces and turnout is huge.
Is this £5m relating to that or to some other grant to Greater Manchester Council?
This morning's Truman upset win over Dewey in 1948 thread looks a bit more prophetic this afternoon
This is peanuts against the bungs dealt out to Johnson's and Cumming's cronies.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1318562523361218562
Amusingly it's Rasmussen
I have the default three back columns, and three lay columns, of which the book percentage is displayed over the "outside" of the column (an option to back all/lay all appears in the centre)
Greater Manchester were arguing over the income of low paid workers so the Government should have said 80% for everyone earning up to £1800 a month and 66% for everyone above that.
Biden will almost certainly win the national popular vote as Hillary did
We demand to know. And even when we do know we won't know.
The biggest bloody mistake with the 3 tier system was giving local leaders any options other than "pick you tier and get on with it". The last week or so has been a total waste of time, during which the virus has not been resting.
As of yesterday, Harris was over 50% of its 2016 turnout:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/article/Harris-County-on-pace-to-reach-50-of-2016-local-15658569.php
It's a fraction of the money, the billions in fact the government happily spends on Londoners, like Crossrail.
The safety of Northerners is worth less in the eyes of Boris Johnson than the cost of making commuting easier for Southern jessies.
As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
Almost the entire amount of Covid relief being negotiated.
It's classic Boris. He sought to manoeuvre himself into a position where he could simply criticise others, rather than take responsibility as PM.
Whilst Manchester didn't play out as expected, and the idea of the PM acting this way is typically shameful, but I do wonder whether the approach will play off long term for Boris. Trump loves to blame the governors.
You have to go back to 1876 when Democratic candidate Tilden got 50.9% and 184 EC votes and GOP candidate Hayes got 47.9% and 185 EC votes to find the last and only time a candidate got over 50% of the popular vote and still lost the EC and the presidency.
That election also had the highest turnout in US history of 81.8%
Boris Johnson is a manchild who doesn't like anyone who rebels against him.
TIA
https://imgur.com/a/jm4qiLH
You mean the 109% and the 86%, right?
Positively hard right, indeed.
https://twitter.com/DrDavidBerger/status/1316713694315905028?s=20
Some info here: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/20/coronavirus-burnham-condemns-late-night-ultimatum-to-greater-manchester
The government would then distribute that money (as it has tax code and personal allowance figures.)
https://order-order.com/2020/10/20/cat-smiths-london-flat-out-for-rent-while-she-rents-another-london-flat-on-taxpayer-cash/
It says a lot that he makes Boris Johnson look like a chump, and Burnham the competent one, looking out for the voters.