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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings – politicalbettin

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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    21 331.
    234 deaths.

    It's grim.
    What was the mortality figure when we locked down in March?
    Excellent question. 23. (March 16)
    So it’s ten times as bad now.

    And yet we’re in this horrible muddle.
    TBF we were following the dreadful trajectory of Italy back in March. We understand the virus and what interventions can and cannot do a lot better now. This should be easier, not more difficult.
    Yes. And we still can’t get it right.

    The only plausible defence for this lot is that with about six exceptions no government has.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    21 331.
    234 deaths.

    It's grim.
    What was the mortality figure when we locked down in March?
    281 reported on March 22nd; lockdown announced on the 23rd; 422 deaths announced on the 24th.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    This is pure Trumpian politics from Boris Johnson and the government.

    But BigG and HYUFD will defend them.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    OFF TOPIC -

    Several newspapers have recently quoted Jennifer Arcuri conceding that she did indeed have an affair with Boris Johnson and was 'bombarded by passion'.
    The Mirror reports that "the 35-year-old businesswoman has gone on record by alleging she had an affair with the current Prime Minister between 2012 and 2016 while he was the Mayor of London"
    The Mirror's report continues "But the Prime Minister avoided a criminal investigation after the police watchdog found no evidence he influenced the payment of thousands of pounds of public money to her, or secured her participation in foreign trade trips he led."
    In the light of these disclosures, is it perhaps possible or indeed likely that investigations into his conduct at the time will be re-opened.
    Certainly, further embarrassment for the Prime Minister appears certain with Ms Arcuri set to produce a film about their relationship.

    A film? I'm thinking "When Jenny Met Boris", a romcom starring ... oh never mind. Why should we make light of this stuff. It's not funny really.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:
    Its not the £5m though is it. It would force a total U-Turn on furlough scheme and need a guarantee of 80% for everybody, which would be a lot more than that.
    Only for those put into Tier 3.

    And for the lowest paid why shouldn't it be 80% if they're forbidden by law from working?
    I am not arguing for or against, I am saying why it isn't in reality £5m.
    Either way it is millions not billions though.

    It's mental, very bad politics.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,550
    edited October 2020

    It is essential to conservatism (small 'c') that you allow institutions to develop organically and avoid the unforeseen consequences of change. Conservatism starts, or rather continues, from where you are in a measured and thoughtful way. It also avoids seeing issues as single and unrelated.

    The fact that we have a head of state who is head of the church (Supreme Governor actually) is a long term historical development. A similar long term historical development is that the monarch is not absolutist, has few direct powers, is appointed by an accident of birth regulated by parliament. All these elements taken one by one are anomalous to a tidy, secular ordered mind. In the real messy world HM the Queen is among the most popular and loved people in the world. Take great care messing with the historic mix.

    We also have the great good fortune of having a royal succession for nearly the next century which has every chance of being as popular as at present.

    Not even Corbyn or the SNP dare to mess with this historic good fortune.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    21 331.
    234 deaths.

    It's grim.
    What was the mortality figure when we locked down in March?
    281 reported on March 22nd; lockdown announced on the 23rd; 422 deaths announced on the 24th.
    OK, so the figure quoted earlier was wrong. But clearly the situation is now looking comparable.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo can't negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag...

    If the EU were doing this to the UK, as Westminster is playing hardball to Manchester, you'd be cheering it on.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    Scott_xP said:
    The government is planning? I thought they just made shit up as they went along.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    Alleged and then admitted by Jenrick

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-jenrick-richard-desmond-housing-tory-donor-westferry-a9631876.html
  • Options

    I am somewhat unsure of Burnham's demands for 75 million but listening to him it seems he is costing this over a six month period.

    If so no wonder the government said no because that gives them a blank cheque irrespective of how covid and the tiering proceeds. I can understand Rishi saying help is constantly reviewed but Burnham seems to accept covid is going to continue in crisis for six months

    To my mind he may be the toast of Manchester but HMG has a wider responsibility to the nation and be flexible on support

    I am interested if anyone else things seeking a six month settlement is unreasonable and has huge implications

    Life is not returning to the normal in the next six months. By the time it does we will have forgotten what normal was.
    I agree but HMG needs to review progress and adjust accordingly

    You can only take this month by month, remember HMG has to judge this in the context of the whole of the UK in view of the Barnett formula
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    He doesnt like being called a pornographer despite running Red Hot TV and having published Penthouse, Asian Babes, Readers Wives and Barely Legal! He hired Brian MacLaurin as his spin doctor 20 years ago to improve his image but he is still often referred to as a pornographer.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,705
    this is utterly terrible stuff from the government when lives are on the line.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646

    I am somewhat unsure of Burnham's demands for 75 million but listening to him it seems he is costing this over a six month period.

    If so no wonder the government said no because that gives them a blank cheque irrespective of how covid and the tiering proceeds. I can understand Rishi saying help is constantly reviewed but Burnham seems to accept covid is going to continue in crisis for six months

    To my mind he may be the toast of Manchester but HMG has a wider responsibility to the nation and be flexible on support

    I am interested if anyone else things seeking a six month settlement is unreasonable and has huge implications

    In terms of fiscal totals it has nothing of the sort.
    Why is central government so determined to micromanage local affairs - particularly when they don't seem to be making a great job of it ?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,543
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't get it. Who gives a fuck about £5m?

    Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.

    As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
    But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
    And yet it might make the difference between staying open and being shuttered for a couple of hundred small businesses which might receive a discretionary grant as a result.
    This all stems from rubbish thinking from Rishi. The furlough should never have been bumped down to 67%, it should have had the limit reduced to £2000 to make savings. People like me benefit from the higher limit, people who have low paid jobs benefit from a higher proportion. The government has moved it into the wrong direction.
    I agree, though personally I'd have been more radical. 100% for the lowest paid 10% to protect those on really low wages/minimum wage/part-timers, 90% for the next 10%, 80% for the next 10%...... going down to 50% but no lower for the highest paid. Redistribution and avoiding poverty - what's not to like?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931

    The Manchester stand-off is another indication that Rishi Sunak really isn't as politically savvy as he should be - and that he may not be the saviour some Tories think he is.

    Beware of false Gods, wise words!!!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646
    Scott_xP said:
    Regional leaders said precisely the same about the earlier tier discussions.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,998

    If the EU were doing this to the UK, as Westminster is playing hardball to Manchester, you'd be cheering it on.

    Fuck off.

    The EU does not manage the health and wellbeing of UK citizens. And even if they did, I would not be cheering this.
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.
    Sends a message the government doesn't care about a region full of marginal constituencies.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Yet Sir Keir wants all locked down equally...
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    this is utterly terrible stuff from the government when lives are on the line.

    Oh come on. Burnham was playing poker too.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,550
    kinabalu said:

    OFF TOPIC -

    Several newspapers have recently quoted Jennifer Arcuri conceding that she did indeed have an affair with Boris Johnson and was 'bombarded by passion'.
    The Mirror reports that "the 35-year-old businesswoman has gone on record by alleging she had an affair with the current Prime Minister between 2012 and 2016 while he was the Mayor of London"
    The Mirror's report continues "But the Prime Minister avoided a criminal investigation after the police watchdog found no evidence he influenced the payment of thousands of pounds of public money to her, or secured her participation in foreign trade trips he led."
    In the light of these disclosures, is it perhaps possible or indeed likely that investigations into his conduct at the time will be re-opened.
    Certainly, further embarrassment for the Prime Minister appears certain with Ms Arcuri set to produce a film about their relationship.

    A film? I'm thinking "When Jenny Met Boris", a romcom starring ... oh never mind. Why should we make light of this stuff. It's not funny really.
    I am not a fan of Boris's private life but he does seem to pick on women who are well able to look after themselves and know what they are doing. At least he isn't a creep.

  • Options

    Scott_xP said:
    This is pure Trumpian politics from Boris Johnson and the government.

    But BigG and HYUFD will defend them.
    Not really

    Please can you address whether it is right to demand a six month up front payment for tier 3 at a huge cost across the whole of the UK

    I do not defend Boris and expect his press conference to be a PR disaster
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    He doesnt like being called a pornographer despite running Red Hot TV and having published Penthouse, Asian Babes, Readers Wives and Barely Legal! He hired Brian MacLaurin as his spin doctor 20 years ago to improve his image but he is still often referred to as a pornographer.
    I thought for a moment you meant Jenrick, and was startled.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,723
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't get it. Who gives a fuck about £5m?

    Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.

    As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
    But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
    And yet it might make the difference between staying open and being shuttered for a couple of hundred small businesses which might receive a discretionary grant as a result.
    This all stems from rubbish thinking from Rishi. The furlough should never have been bumped down to 67%, it should have had the limit reduced to £2000 to make savings. People like me benefit from the higher limit, people who have low paid jobs benefit from a higher proportion. The government has moved it into the wrong direction.
    I agree, though personally I'd have been more radical. 100% for the lowest paid 10% to protect those on really low wages/minimum wage/part-timers, 90% for the next 10%, 80% for the next 10%...... going down to 50% but no lower for the highest paid. Redistribution and avoiding poverty - what's not to like?
    100% for Minimum Wage full time and then 67% after that could have worked too but 80% in total is probably simpler.

    A lower cap on the 80% as Max suggested wouldn't be as controversial.
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    He doesnt like being called a pornographer despite running Red Hot TV and having published Penthouse, Asian Babes, Readers Wives and Barely Legal! He hired Brian MacLaurin as his spin doctor 20 years ago to improve his image but he is still often referred to as a pornographer.
    I am to naive to be fair
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    21 331.
    234 deaths.

    It's grim.
    What was the mortality figure when we locked down in March?
    281 reported on March 22nd; lockdown announced on the 23rd; 422 deaths announced on the 24th.
    OK, so the figure quoted earlier was wrong. But clearly the situation is now looking comparable.
    It's not quite the same, as the rate of increase (and also the uncertainties) were quite a bit higher back then - but also at that point, a lot of us were shouting that it was a week too late.
    (Also, we're supposed to have improved at treating the most serious patients.)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2020

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
    I believe, it isn't the money at all, it is that it would require a big national U-Turn.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    As I said a while back, in retrospect he was too generous in the first lockdown. Of course they had to move fast and that was difficult, but it could have been a bit less generous and more targeted at the worst-hit sectors. That would have left a bit more room for support now, which was obviously going to be needed.

    You are probably right on your U-turn prediction. But the U-turn we need most desperately is on the end of the transition.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't get it. Who gives a fuck about £5m?

    Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.

    As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
    But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
    And yet it might make the difference between staying open and being shuttered for a couple of hundred small businesses which might receive a discretionary grant as a result.
    This all stems from rubbish thinking from Rishi. The furlough should never have been bumped down to 67%, it should have had the limit reduced to £2000 to make savings. People like me benefit from the higher limit, people who have low paid jobs benefit from a higher proportion. The government has moved it into the wrong direction.
    I agree, though personally I'd have been more radical. 100% for the lowest paid 10% to protect those on really low wages/minimum wage/part-timers, 90% for the next 10%, 80% for the next 10%...... going down to 50% but no lower for the highest paid. Redistribution and avoiding poverty - what's not to like?
    You're both right about the principle, though.
    Why was it not obvious to the chancellor ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646
    Yorkcity said:

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.

    To what end ?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    21 331.
    234 deaths.

    It's grim.
    What was the mortality figure when we locked down in March?
    281 reported on March 22nd; lockdown announced on the 23rd; 422 deaths announced on the 24th.
    OK, so the figure quoted earlier was wrong. But clearly the situation is now looking comparable.
    Apologies. I got the date wrong as did Matt Hancock, it appears.

    https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-lockdown-hancock-claim/
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,998

    I believe, it isn't the money at all, it is that it would require a big national U-Turn.

    The big National u-turn is coming anyway when BoZo finally announces the National Lockdown Overlapping regional temporary restrictions covering 100% of the country
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    I believe, it isn't the money at all, it is that it would require a big national U-Turn.

    The big National u-turn is coming anyway when BoZo finally announces the National Lockdown Overlapping regional temporary restrictions covering 100% of the country
    The government cannot really afford that, I don;t think. It will require huge furlough payments the government simply cannot finance any more.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,998

    The government cannot really afford that, I don;t think

    Can't afford not to
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730
    Yorkcity said:

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.
    The £60 million was in addition to the £22 million and for a different purpose. The £22 million is for local T&T and compliance. £60 million for support for businesses that need to close.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Scott_xP said:
    Blimey! Geoff Parker doesn't say much, but when he does speak it's usually worth listening to

    It is THE Geoff Parker isn't it?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,318

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
    For Manchester read the whole of the country shortly.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687
    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    £22 million only...

    £38 million loss from the offer of £60 million.
    Sends a message don't try to mess with this government.

    To what end ?
    Petulant spite.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    He doesnt like being called a pornographer despite running Red Hot TV and having published Penthouse, Asian Babes, Readers Wives and Barely Legal! He hired Brian MacLaurin as his spin doctor 20 years ago to improve his image but he is still often referred to as a pornographer.
    I thought for a moment you meant Jenrick, and was startled.
    Jenricks priors are far more dull, I think he claimed to be a successful entrepreneur on the campaign trail but was actually a middle manager at Christies, and he regularly seems to get confused about where he lives and what is local to him.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395
    edited October 2020
    Deleted
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Scott_xP said:

    The government cannot really afford that, I don;t think

    Can't afford not to
    Surely, if this Manchester standoff shows anything, it shows that the money is running out.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2020
    Interesting how progression of COVID from young to old is significant in some regions (NW), but not others (SE / London).
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    edited October 2020

    Scott_xP said:

    The government cannot really afford that, I don;t think

    Can't afford not to
    Surely, if this Manchester standoff shows anything, it shows that the money is running out.

    Who cares? Print more!

  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    He doesnt like being called a pornographer despite running Red Hot TV and having published Penthouse, Asian Babes, Readers Wives and Barely Legal! He hired Brian MacLaurin as his spin doctor 20 years ago to improve his image but he is still often referred to as a pornographer.
    I thought for a moment you meant Jenrick, and was startled.
    Jenricks priors are far more dull, I think he claimed to be a successful entrepreneur on the campaign trail but was actually a middle manager at Christies, and he regularly seems to get confused about where he lives and what is local to him.
    He has modelled himself on Piers Fletcher-Dervish off The New Statesman.
  • Options
    Greater Manchester heat maps are frightening
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,318

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    As I said a while back, in retrospect he was too generous in the first lockdown. Of course they had to move fast and that was difficult, but it could have been a bit less generous and more targeted at the worst-hit sectors. That would have left a bit more room for support now, which was obviously going to be needed.

    You are probably right on your U-turn prediction. But the U-turn we need most desperately is on the end of the transition.
    Oh yes that's right - forget about shooting ourselves in the foot - we are about to saw our legs off wrt the EU.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,687

    Scott_xP said:

    The government cannot really afford that, I don;t think

    Can't afford not to
    Surely, if this Manchester standoff shows anything, it shows that the money is running out.

    Money is NOT running out! The government can print or borrow more any time it likes.

    This is all about not being seen to lose face.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
    For Manchester read the whole of the country shortly.
    They're going to go from pissing off the Mancs to pissing off everyone? Possibly.

    If people aren't allowed to work they should be compensated.

    If you don't want to compensate people then let them work.

    It isn't complex.
  • Options

    Greater Manchester heat maps are frightening

    And we have been dicking about with this T3 restrictions for over a week. You can't afford to do this.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,646
    Research from Wisconsin:

    SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20210294v1
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    Boris enforces tier 3 non on Greater Manchester
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    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't get it. Who gives a fuck about £5m?

    Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.

    As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
    But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
    And yet it might make the difference between staying open and being shuttered for a couple of hundred small businesses which might receive a discretionary grant as a result.
    This all stems from rubbish thinking from Rishi. The furlough should never have been bumped down to 67%, it should have had the limit reduced to £2000 to make savings. People like me benefit from the higher limit, people who have low paid jobs benefit from a higher proportion. The government has moved it into the wrong direction.
    I agree, though personally I'd have been more radical. 100% for the lowest paid 10% to protect those on really low wages/minimum wage/part-timers, 90% for the next 10%, 80% for the next 10%...... going down to 50% but no lower for the highest paid. Redistribution and avoiding poverty - what's not to like?
    You're both right about the principle, though.
    Why was it not obvious to the chancellor ?
    At a guess, people earning 2k-2.5k break far more Tory than those earning sub 2k?
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    The other day I said Boris Johnson and the government were breathtakingly incompetent but not malevolent, today I admit I was utterly wrong when I said that.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,318
    who-hoo!

    £22m for GM.

    He actually lit the blue touch paper.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395
    algarkirk said:


    It is essential to conservatism (small 'c') that you allow institutions to develop organically and avoid the unforeseen consequences of change. Conservatism starts, or rather continues, from where you are in a measured and thoughtful way. It also avoids seeing issues as single and unrelated.

    The fact that we have a head of state who is head of the church (Supreme Governor actually) is a long term historical development. A similar long term historical development is that the monarch is not absolutist, has few direct powers, is appointed by an accident of birth regulated by parliament. All these elements taken one by one are anomalous to a tidy, secular ordered mind. In the real messy world HM the Queen is among the most popular and loved people in the world. Take great care messing with the historic mix.

    We also have the great good fortune of having a royal succession for nearly the next century which has every chance of being as popular as at present.

    Not even Corbyn or the SNP dare to mess with this historic good fortune.

    Agreed - I favour conserving both the established church and the monarchy. I am a conservative.

    It's interesting how some anti-Brexiteer constitutional radicals on here are making common cause with the hardest of tungsten-tipped Brexiteers on this issue.

    Clearly, they have something in common.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
    For Manchester read the whole of the country shortly.
    They're going to go from pissing off the Mancs to pissing off everyone? Possibly.

    If people aren't allowed to work they should be compensated.

    If you don't want to compensate people then let them work.

    It isn't complex.
    Philip.

    *pause*

    *more pause*

    I agree.
    If they do this for Manchester, they will be compelled to do it for everyone.

    And they cannot afford that. They know they can't.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    "The Mayor of Manchester will now work with us to enforce these measures."
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    Tier 3 coming in Nottingham, Yorkshire and Northeast from the sound of it.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,723

    Greater Manchester heat maps are frightening

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1318585986956300288?s=20
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    The other day I said Boris Johnson and the government were breathtakingly incompetent but not malevolent, today I admit I was utterly wrong when I said that.

    They couldn't give a rat fuck about ordinary people. Many of us have been saying this for a long time. Yes, up north people have voted Tory in desperation having been told whatever they want they will get. Imagine their reaction when they open the box and find its got a steaming cat turd inside it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Guido is talking rubbish, the Church of England was created as a breakaway from the Catholic Church by Henry VIII so by definition it has to be the established Church with the monarch as its head otherwise as it is still a 'holy Catholic and apostolic church' it would effectively revert to its Supreme Head being the Pope
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296

    The other day I said Boris Johnson and the government were breathtakingly incompetent but not malevolent, today I admit I was utterly wrong when I said that.

    Always knew Cummings was malevolent. He can’t deal emotionally with people being cleverer or more popular than him - which given his intellectual limitations and nasty character, contains a substantial slice of the population. Makes him spiteful and petty.

    But even by his standards, this is a bad one.
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    Cases look terrible, though was @MaxPB's hypothesis proven correct?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    HYUFD said:

    Guido is talking rubbish, the Church of England was created as a breakaway from the Catholic Church by Henry VIII so by definition it has to be the established Church with the monarch as its head otherwise as it is still a 'holy Catholic and apostolic church' it would effectively revert to its Supreme Head being the Pope
    Er...you mean like the Methodist church?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,723

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I can't comprehend what Sunak and Johnson are playing at. It is very disappointing.

    Expect all six questions at PMQs to be on this issue tomorrow. If Starmer can't score off this subject he really should resign and get Burnham as LOTO.
    He could be genuinely worried at the extent to which the govt is spending.

    No one otherwise rationally sits down and decides to blow up their own popularity and cause a huge shitstorm.

    They must have forecast that by now the virus would be in retreat and that it (the furlough) could sensibly be tapered down.

    a) so much for scenario analysis; and
    b) expect a u-turn shortly.
    The Government is spending billions not millions. Arguing over these millions is bizarre economically as well as politically.
    For Manchester read the whole of the country shortly.
    They're going to go from pissing off the Mancs to pissing off everyone? Possibly.

    If people aren't allowed to work they should be compensated.

    If you don't want to compensate people then let them work.

    It isn't complex.
    Philip.

    *pause*

    *more pause*

    I agree.
    If they do this for Manchester, they will be compelled to do it for everyone.

    And they cannot afford that. They know they can't.
    £5 million for 4% of the UK is "unaffordable"? Anyone got a calculator handy?
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    Greater Manchester heat maps are frightening

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1318585986956300288?s=20
    Frightening heat map but just shows what a farce wasting a week was. Should have acted fast a week ago.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't get it. Who gives a fuck about £5m?

    Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson, because they are never wrong.

    As you saw with the trip to Durham and Barnard Castle, they can't be wrong, everyone else has to be wrong.
    But it's £5m. It's a nothing amount of money. This is a victory worthy of Pyrrhus. It just looks like ministers are blind to what's happening on the ground over paltry sums of money, I mean by this it's probably true as well.
    And yet it might make the difference between staying open and being shuttered for a couple of hundred small businesses which might receive a discretionary grant as a result.
    This all stems from rubbish thinking from Rishi. The furlough should never have been bumped down to 67%, it should have had the limit reduced to £2000 to make savings. People like me benefit from the higher limit, people who have low paid jobs benefit from a higher proportion. The government has moved it into the wrong direction.
    I agree, though personally I'd have been more radical. 100% for the lowest paid 10% to protect those on really low wages/minimum wage/part-timers, 90% for the next 10%, 80% for the next 10%...... going down to 50% but no lower for the highest paid. Redistribution and avoiding poverty - what's not to like?
    It's complicated to administer. The 80% figure is easy and cheap to figure out.
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    Well, I think the odds of the Blue Wall collapsing and going back to Labour for another generation are increasing
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    Well, I think the odds of the Blue Wall collapsing and going back to Labour for another generation are increasing
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Cases look terrible, though was @MaxPB's hypothesis proven correct?

    I think so, yes. R is still falling from an initial look, but it may be falling faster in some parts than other.
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    Remember when I said the Tiers were confusing and would lead to chaos and PB Tories told me I was being silly, I am sure they won't admit to their being wrong
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I suspect that looking at today, the verdict of some voters won;t be labour or conservative, but neither.
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    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why give public money to help people and businesses affected by Tier 3 lockdown in Manchester when you can give it to consultants, ministers' mates and Tory donors instead?

    And £25 m to Jenrick's constituency. The blighted ghetto of Newark.
    £45 million of public money gifted by Jenrick to property developer, pornographer and Tory Party donor Richard Desmond
    Alleged surely
    Nope.

    Robert Jenrick admits deliberately helping Tory donor avoid £45m tax bill by rushing through housing development

    Housing minister says his actions on the Westferry scheme were consistent with ‘natural justice’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-jenrick-richard-desmond-housing-tory-donor-westferry-a9631876.html

    Wouldn't taring and feathering the Minister also be consistent with "natural justice"? And would NOT cost public £45m.
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    While I agree that HMG should not be writing out cheques for a six month lockdown, this is a PR disaster for Boris and when you add in the refusal to grant free school meals for children during the holidays as requested by Marcus Rashford you do really have to wonder if they are being coached by Gérard Ratner

    I would be very surprised if the polls do not show a marked crossover

    No 10 needs a new PR representative, step forward Allegra
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    MaxPB said:

    Cases look terrible, though was @MaxPB's hypothesis proven correct?

    I think so, yes. R is still falling from an initial look, but it may be falling faster in some parts than other.
    The other concern is the age profile.

    If R goes down but instead of 1000 students in an area getting the virus, 800 grandparents do, that will be fewer cases but a worse scenario.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Guido is talking rubbish, the Church of England was created as a breakaway from the Catholic Church by Henry VIII so by definition it has to be the established Church with the monarch as its head otherwise as it is still a 'holy Catholic and apostolic church' it would effectively revert to its Supreme Head being the Pope
    Er...you mean like the Methodist church?
    The Methodist church is non conformist, not the established church.

    The Queen is also not Supreme Governor of the Methodist Church

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,318

    I suspect that looking at today, the verdict of some voters won;t be labour or conservative, but neither.

    Nowhere to go until 2024.
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    CMO' s support local lockdowns
This discussion has been closed.