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Working out Covid-19 and the political classes – politicalbetting.com

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, it was not misleading, Cumbria and North Yorkshire are 'vast areas of the North' as any map would show you and Hull is also a major population centre, over 20 times the size of Epping and Hull is in Tier 1 while we are in Tier 2
    It was misleading, and now I've corrected you. So I'm glad we've settled that one.

    Epping is just a London suburb anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    I really think people overplay the north south divide. Electorally there isn't that much evidence of anti-southness being a huge factor, when the big two are both big in the south (Labour pretty much in London, technically), and it feels like a self fulfilling prophecy where the true fact of not enough attention being paid to the north - something that's gone on for a long long time and which politicians always promise to address - gets conflated into some seething extreme position.

    Indeed, rural Essex has far more in common with rural North Yorkshire culturally and politically than it does with Greater Manchester and Greater Manchester has far more in common culturally and politically with Greater London than it does with rural Cumbria, the rural urban divide here and in the US and indeed much of Europe and Australia and Canada is much greater than any regional divide
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    HYUFD said:

    Oh no that is quite clearly you, given Hull has a population of 261,149
    I don't know Hull at all well, only been there a couple of times, but while it's locally important it hasn't the hinterland of say, Leeds, Bradford or Manchester.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    He has more faces than the town clock , it will be announced soon and he will swear blind he never said "no".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    This country is pretty much ungovernable at the moment. Not because of the rebellious north, because of the dickheads in SW1. The cabinet aren't just damaging the future prospects of their own party, they aren't just damaging the viability of the union, now they're damaging the fabric that holds the English union together.

    "English Union"? Yes - as I point out to tiresome wankers who bleat on about multiculturalism, England is very multicultural. "The North" is a very different place to "The South". And there are of course very different groups within those lose definitions.

    As the Norman empire finally falls apart during the rest of this decade, perhaps HYUFD types will ask themselves not if they will accept the departure of Scotland and Ulster from the Union but if they can accept the departure of Yorkshire and Lancashire from England - how much of your own country do you arrogantly claim you can control by sneering dictat?
    Jennifer Williams is a superb journalist. Her articles on the Manchester grooming gangs were outstanding.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    @Casino_Royale I don't think anyone cares how many "likes" they have.

    Don't be mad just because your angry outbursts about how much the EU flag upsets you get no likes. 🇪🇺
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    I suspect Mr Herdson means "patsies", but the point stands:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1317737832333660160?s=20

    An appropriate freudian slip I think.
  • I wonder how many more examples of "us" and "them" the Tories can get away with before their new coalition falls apart and is unrecoverable for another 40 years
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    I haven't heard anybody say that he should be given a peerage because he is black. I think there is a suspicion that the government would have given him one if he were white, which is a different point.
    I don´t think this government would have. They are busy packing both houses of Parliament with their toady friends - so sensible critics of the government are not wanted. A shame, of course, and a disgrace and, in the long run, a disaster.
  • kle4 said:

    I really think people overplay the north south divide. Electorally there isn't that much evidence of anti-southness being a huge factor, when the big two are both big in the south (Labour pretty much in London, technically), and it feels like a self fulfilling prophecy where the true fact of not enough attention being paid to the north - something that's gone on for a long long time and which politicians always promise to address - gets conflated into some seething extreme position.

    And you can differentiate further - there's a difference between northern cities and northern towns and northern rural areas.

    Given that covid is concentrated in the cities other areas don't want to be restricted because of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    edited October 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Frankly, were I Sentamu I would refuse membership of an organisation which has people like Claire Fox in it. The PM has utterly devalued the currency with this appointment.

    Sentamu is someone whose opinions are certainly worth hearing. On this I agree.
    Yes, I’m not a great fan of some of his opinions, but I respect him as someone worth listening to.
    Fox, on the other hand, is an absurd appointment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    isam said:
    Some strong political cartoons today.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    kle4 said:

    I really think people overplay the north south divide. Electorally there isn't that much evidence of anti-southness being a huge factor, when the big two are both big in the south (Labour pretty much in London, technically), and it feels like a self fulfilling prophecy where the true fact of not enough attention being paid to the north - something that's gone on for a long long time and which politicians always promise to address - gets conflated into some seething extreme position.

    Indeed. But this very thing was what happened in Scotland. Drip, drip, drip. Each by themselves seemingly insignificant and effecting no discernible change.
    Then the dam suddenly burst.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    malcolmg said:

    He has more faces than the town clock , it will be announced soon and he will swear blind he never said "no".
    Gove is, I understand, a Scot. When you get independence, Malc, will you take him back, please.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    FF43 said:

    I think the solution at this stage is a provisional deal where detailed negotiations on state aid, fishing and governance are parked until next year. Not an extension. The Kent lorry park madness etc will still go ahead but the can is kicked on the most contentious bits.
    It will be an almost total capitulation at best, promoted by these lying toerags as a victory. However they are really stupid enough to go for No Deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    alex_ said:

    Do i have to actually state "this post is laced with sarcasm" for this to be understood?
    I’ve frequently found so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    edited October 2020

    This country is pretty much ungovernable at the moment. Not because of the rebellious north, because of the dickheads in SW1. The cabinet aren't just damaging the future prospects of their own party, they aren't just damaging the viability of the union, now they're damaging the fabric that holds the English union together.

    "English Union"? Yes - as I point out to tiresome wankers who bleat on about multiculturalism, England is very multicultural. "The North" is a very different place to "The South". And there are of course very different groups within those lose definitions.

    As the Norman empire finally falls apart during the rest of this decade, perhaps HYUFD types will ask themselves not if they will accept the departure of Scotland and Ulster from the Union but if they can accept the departure of Yorkshire and Lancashire from England - how much of your own country do you arrogantly claim you can control by sneering dictat?
    What a load of rubbish, for starters rural Lancashire and rural Yorkshire has far more in common with rural Essex than it does with Greater London or Greater Manchester. Indeed rural Scotland has more in common culturally and politically with rural Essex than it does with Glasgow as shown by its strong No vote in 2014 and the number of Tory MPs rural Scotland elected in 2017 and 2019 and the entirety of Antrim is still DUP.

    Though of course if London and the South East was an independent nation it would be one of the wealthiest nations per head not only in Europe but the world so it is not as if the Home Counties have anything to lose but we are stronger together.

    I am also sick to death of being told by the likes of you when rural Yorkshire is in tier 1 and we in rural Essex are in 2 tier and higher restrictions than you are we are giving a sneering dictat, absolutely outrageous and totally fact free!!!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    nichomar said:

    Really?
    Yes they really are that stupid
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186
    MPs should debate this petition, given that it has exceeded 100,000 signatures. Indeed MPs WILL debate this petition, given that ... . Thus a few MPs will turn up in Westminister Hall, with a government representative there to say that it's bang out of order.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    kle4 said:

    When people cannot even come up with a plausible excuse, it is a bad sign (like when politicians fall back on the 'I'm stupid' defence for some problem).
    I doubt racism played any role in this - just sheer intergalactic incompetence. Which is almost worse, given the current situation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    What a load of rubbish, for starters rural Lancashire and rural Yorkshire has far more in common with rural Essex than it does with Greater London or Greater Manchester.

    Though of course if London and the South East was an independent nation it would be one of the wealthiest nations per head not only in Europe but the world so it is not as if the Home Counties have anything to lose but we are stronger together.

    I am also sick to death of being told by the likes of you when rural Yorkshire is in tier 1 and we in rural Essex are in 2 tier and higher restrictions than you are we are giving a sneering dictat, absolutely outrageous and totally fact free!!!!
    Imagine describing Epping as "rural Essex". It has a bloody tube station.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    OK, so i'm loving the newly discovered "like" function. Anyone know if there's a way to find out which are your most liked posts?
  • Imagine describing Epping as "rural Essex". It has a bloody tube station.
    Does HYUFD have any credibility left?
  • alex_ said:

    OK, so i'm loving the newly discovered "like" function. Anyone know if there's a way to find out which are your most liked posts?

    I'll say something vaguely stupid and you can come back with a witty reply, that will net you some likes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Situation in London - no one gives a fuck about tier 2, everyone just thinks that pubs and restaurants are being scapegoated for poor planning by the government. No support for the two week circuit breaker, no support for tier 2 or 3 and everyone wants to get rid of the 10pm closing time.

    What was interesting was the unanimous thinking on the circuit breaker, "changes nothing" and "back to where we are now a few days after its ends". In a lovely piece of solidarity with the North there was also support for Andy Burnham against the government, the actual northerner was fuming at how badly the North is being treated.

    Obviously this is a self selected group of people happy to break the rules in the first place so it's not going to be representative, however, I've not met an irl person who supports the two week circuit breaker or if they do it's usually "only if it's definitely just two weeks, they should make that the law".

    There was real fear that if the country goes back into lockdown we won't come back out even if there's a vaccine. Worries that now they have all of this control over how people live the politicians won't want to give it up and will use other health "emergencies" or climate "emergency" to keep many of the measures in place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    You do realise that Barrow in Furness is in Cumbria?
    You are joking Gallowgate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. But this very thing was what happened in Scotland. Drip, drip, drip. Each by themselves seemingly insignificant and effecting no discernible change.
    Then the dam suddenly burst.
    A depressing thought indeed, but, and I accept this is itself short on evidence, I get the impression the sudden burst of breathless 'divided nation' headlines and articles is classic political and media overreaction to a novel situation, a hook to give the story interest which, no doubt, many people are buying. There's nothing unusual in our highly centralised state for things to be dictated from Whitehall, not always very well either, and I don't see how current events which are driven by a genuine and defendable need for a regional reaction actually have anything to do with the wider systemic issues of lack of sufficient engagement or investment in the North.

    Tying the historic issues in with the Covid stuff just looks dumb to me.
  • Labour won the argument
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Roger said:

    I'm looking for the post where he had the temerity to call you weird. I want to give it a 'like'
    @Roger Very glad to see you back Roger, I missed your posts. I wondered yesterday if it was an imposter , glad to see you are well.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    I wonder how many more examples of "us" and "them" the Tories can get away with before their new coalition falls apart and is unrecoverable for another 40 years

    UK politics in the last few years has had a distinctly French Revolution feel, with fissiparous ideologues purging one another. By my estimation the referendum was the storming of the Bastille, leaving the EU was the execution of Louis XVI.
    I expect Robespierre to fall before the end of summer 2021.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    edited October 2020

    Imagine describing Epping as "rural Essex". It has a bloody tube station.
    So what, it also has plenty of farmers and is surrounded by forest and fields and countryside, it is the end of the line.

    You also get train commuters to Leeds and York in rural North Yorkshire you know
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549

    Gove is, I understand, a Scot. When you get independence, Malc, will you take him back, please.
    imho one of the main reasons Gove has started to be very anti-No Deal Brexit is that he knows a chaotic mess in the New Year will add the final lick of paint to an already almost guaranteed vote Yes for Scottish independence. He has no chance, as a scot, of becoming PM if that happens.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068

    Does HYUFD have any credibility left?
    Not with the left but I never had any with them anyway so of course I could not care less
  • Zac Goldsmith's was worse. Absolutely waving two fingers at the electorate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Aren't the most liked posts the ones where I get owned

    Have sore fingers clicking on those
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    edited October 2020
    As a child I used to spend my school holidays at my grandfather’s house in Bolsover. I’m just old enough to remember the pits being open. It felt a world away from my home in Woking.

    Nowadays those two places don’t feel all that different.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Zac Goldsmith's was worse. Absolutely waving two fingers at the electorate.
    Zac Goldsmith, the unflushable turd.
  • HYUFD said:

    Not with the left but I never had any with them anyway so of course I could not care less
    No it's just that you post a lot of wrong/biased information it seems. Your polling for Trump has been oddly one-sided and has certainly damaged your standing, IMHO.

    Keep posting your thoughts though, they're interesting and you're always good mannered unlike some other right wingers on here.

    I would caution against using "the Left" as one homogenous entity, we have different views and thoughts, just as you do on the right.

    For example I'm in full support of remaining part of NATO and keeping the nuclear deterrent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Does HYUFD have any credibility left?
    Has he had for a very very long time
  • Zac Goldsmith's was worse. Absolutely waving two fingers at the electorate.
    True.

    But there's been plenty of similar cases in the past.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    OK, so i'm loving the newly discovered "like" function. Anyone know if there's a way to find out which are your most liked posts?

    I don't think so, though it seems in your profile you can click on the summary of how many likes you have recieved and it will flag up every post which received a like if people want to replay their greatest hits.

    I think the most I ever received was musing on the difference between a pantry and a larder, and if one was post and the other not. (I'd say a larder is posh, for info).

    Edit: Tell a lie, it was a joke about Cicero. Good times.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Nigelb said:

    I’ve frequently found so.
    For the Tories at least
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    edited October 2020

    No it's just that you post a lot of wrong/biased information it seems. Your polling for Trump has been oddly one-sided and has certainly damaged your standing, IMHO.

    Keep posting your thoughts though, they're interesting and you're always good mannered unlike some other right wingers on here.

    I would caution against using "the Left" as one homogenous entity, we have different views and thoughts, just as you do on the right.

    For example I'm in full support of remaining part of NATO and keeping the nuclear deterrent.
    We will see on election night, if Trump is narrowly re elected in the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote due to shy Trumps again, especially in the MidWest, there will be some on here with egg on their face but I will not be amongst them.

    Of course Biden could win, all I am doing is offering a counter view to the certainty of a Biden landslide many on here seem to hold, I am not even a Trump supporter like say Mr Ed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    Nigelb said:

    A rare piece of uplifting news, particularly the generous reaction of the son.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/18/murderer-who-tackled-london-bridge-attacker-with-narwhal-tusk-pardoned
    ... Gallant, 42, will see the 17-year sentence he received in 2005 reduced by 10 months, and could apply for parole next June, the Mirror reported.

    The Ministry of Justice said the Queen was advised to grant this pardon as a result of Gallant’s “exceptionally brave actions […] which helped save people’s lives despite the tremendous risk to his own”.

    In an extraordinary turn of events, the family of firefighter Barrie Jackson, whom Gallant killed outside a pub in Hull, backed the decision to free the murderer early.

    Jackson’s student son Jack, 21, said: “I have mixed emotions – but what happened at London Bridge goes to show the reality that people can change,” adding that he would not rule out meeting his father’s killer one day...

    Am I alone in thinking, hmm...still up for a fight then?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Gove is, I understand, a Scot. When you get independence, Malc, will you take him back, please.
    OKC if that happened I would emigrate.
  • HYUFD said:

    We will see on election night, if Trump is narrowly re elected in the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote due to shy Trump's again, especially in the MidWest, there will be some on here with egg on their face but I will not be amongst them.

    Of course Biden could win, all I am doing is offering a counter view to the certainty of a Biden landslide many on here seem to hold, I am not even a Trump supporter like say Mr Ed
    I'm purposefully not taking a side as I don't know what the outcome will be but I do think you tend to post polls that show Trump doing well, as opposed to others. That's just my perception and perhaps I'm wrong.

    I just noticed you don't do the same for UK polls, you seem to post them all.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    Situation in London - no one gives a fuck about tier 2, everyone just thinks that pubs and restaurants are being scapegoated for poor planning by the government. No support for the two week circuit breaker, no support for tier 2 or 3 and everyone wants to get rid of the 10pm closing time.

    What was interesting was the unanimous thinking on the circuit breaker, "changes nothing" and "back to where we are now a few days after its ends". In a lovely piece of solidarity with the North there was also support for Andy Burnham against the government, the actual northerner was fuming at how badly the North is being treated.

    Obviously this is a self selected group of people happy to break the rules in the first place so it's not going to be representative, however, I've not met an irl person who supports the two week circuit breaker or if they do it's usually "only if it's definitely just two weeks, they should make that the law".

    There was real fear that if the country goes back into lockdown we won't come back out even if there's a vaccine. Worries that now they have all of this control over how people live the politicians won't want to give it up and will use other health "emergencies" or climate "emergency" to keep many of the measures in place.

    Yes i think this is an important point. That's the only circumstances i can see anyone i know supporting it.

    I am however fully aware that there is a hidden body of opinion who think we should reinstate March lockdown for as long as it takes.

    Another key strand of opinion (which is often quite tricky to read) is people getting very worked up about "idiots" not wearing masks (properly) or basically ignoring social distancing etc. When you dig deeper this annoyance is often (not always by any means) not based upon the health impacts of non-compliance, but more a feeling that it might lead to increased case numbers and triggering additional restrictions. It is the increased restrictions that many people fear, not the virus. There is a lot of suspicion of the presentation of numbers/statistics.
  • If Trump does win, I wonder if those who got it wrong will have it brought up six times a day like they do with my Corbyn predictions? It's only fair
  • imho one of the main reasons Gove has started to be very anti-No Deal Brexit is that he knows a chaotic mess in the New Year will add the final lick of paint to an already almost guaranteed vote Yes for Scottish independence. He has no chance, as a scot, of becoming PM if that happens.

    Gove is almost through the ethnicity reassignment process, just some surgery to rectify his annoying, wee, Scotch face and he'll be done.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    imho one of the main reasons Gove has started to be very anti-No Deal Brexit is that he knows a chaotic mess in the New Year will add the final lick of paint to an already almost guaranteed vote Yes for Scottish independence. He has no chance, as a scot, of becoming PM if that happens.

    The one benefit of him having been brought up in Scotland.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    So what, it also has plenty of farmers and is surrounded by forest and fields and countryside, it is the end of the line.

    You also get train commuters to Leeds and York in rural North Yorkshire you know
    I’m sorry but to describe Epping as “rural” in the same sense as towns and villages in the North that have almost no transport links to their nearest cities just shows how little understanding of the country outside of Essex you have.

    Epping is just a posh suburb of London. It has a tube station on the CENTRAL line and is just off the M25, the busiest motorway in the country. It’s laughable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    kle4 said:

    A depressing thought indeed, but, and I accept this is itself short on evidence, I get the impression the sudden burst of breathless 'divided nation' headlines and articles is classic political and media overreaction to a novel situation, a hook to give the story interest which, no doubt, many people are buying. There's nothing unusual in our highly centralised state for things to be dictated from Whitehall, not always very well either, and I don't see how current events which are driven by a genuine and defendable need for a regional reaction actually have anything to do with the wider systemic issues of lack of sufficient engagement or investment in the North.

    Tying the historic issues in with the Covid stuff just looks dumb to me.
    Thanks for that. You may be right. However, I would contend (equally evidence free) that there is a straight line through the Brexit vote, Corbyn 40% in 2017 and Red Wall 2019. All votes against the status quo.
    And it isn't to do with culture, dislike of foreigners or even the economy.
    In the 80s the government ignored the North cos we didn't vote for them.
    1997 onwards they ignored us cos we did.
    Then our services were cut to ribbons cos bankers crashed the economy. Thus the wildly oscillating political voting of "The left behind."
    It hasn't diminished.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for that. You may be right. However, I would contend (equally evidence free) that there is a straight line through the Brexit vote, Corbyn 40% in 2017 and Red Wall 2019. All votes against the status quo.
    And it isn't to do with culture, dislike of foreigners or even the economy.
    In the 80s the government ignored the North cos we didn't vote for them.
    1997 onwards they ignored us cos we did.
    Then our services were cut to ribbons cos bankers crashed the economy. Thus the wildly oscillating political voting of "The left behind."
    It hasn't diminished.
    I would agree there is something in the 'left behind' feeling which has been harnassed at various electoral events. Potentially that could be utilised by some regional breakdown narrative. However I would contend that, for the moment, the excited commentariat, and politicians looking for an angle, are looking for divisions even when regional disparity is justified.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    HYUFD said:

    We will see on election night, if Trump is narrowly re elected in the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote due to shy Trumps again, especially in the MidWest, there will be some on here with egg on their face but I will not be amongst them.

    Of course Biden could win, all I am doing is offering a counter view to the certainty of a Biden landslide many on here seem to hold, I am not even a Trump supporter like say Mr Ed
    This is fine. So long as you accept some egg if it is an easy Biden win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    DavidL said:

    Absolutely. The most liked comment on this thread by a considerable distance is @Mexicanpete's "Its life gym, but not as we know it."

    I also use likes as a means of thanks where there is an enlightening link or as an acknowledgement when someone has replied to me but I don't have anything else to say about the particular topic because we are in agreement. I think they are useful and don't check my total likes more than 20 times a day, ever.
    Pathetic attempt to piggyback on mexicanpete's success by repeating his post in your own, for shame.
  • True.

    But there's been plenty of similar cases in the past.
    Plenty of ex MPs losing seats and ending up in the Lords, sure.
    But fast-tracked into the Lords so you can continue as a Minister? That, I think, (though I'd love to learn differently) is new.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068
    edited October 2020

    It was misleading, and now I've corrected you. So I'm glad we've settled that one.

    Epping is just a London suburb anyway.
    No it was not misleading and no Epping is not a London suburb like say Chingford or Woodford, it is a market town in the Essex County Council area not the Greater London Authority that just happens to have the last tube stop on the central line that is all
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    DavidL said:

    Absolutely. The most liked comment on this thread by a considerable distance is @Mexicanpete's "Its life gym, but not as we know it."

    I also use likes as a means of thanks where there is an enlightening link or as an acknowledgement when someone has replied to me but I don't have anything else to say about the particular topic because we are in agreement. I think they are useful and don't check my total likes more than 20 times a day, ever.
    Most heartening for me is that my best ever likes totals were in response to posts in regards of replies to well wishes regarding my wife when she was ill.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    kle4 said:

    Pathetic attempt to piggyback on mexicanpete's success by repeating his post in your own, for shame.
    Where is the "Beastly" button when you need one
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068

    I’m sorry but to describe Epping as “rural” in the same sense as towns and villages in the North that have almost no transport links to their nearest cities just shows how little understanding of the country outside of Essex you have.

    Epping is just a posh suburb of London. It has a tube station on the CENTRAL line and is just off the M25, the busiest motorway in the country. It’s laughable.
    Essex is a largely rural county certainly in the north and given you live in suburban Newcastle you can hardly lecture on what constitutes a rural area
  • Trust you're feeling more positive yourself this morning, Mr P.
    This post IS positive. I'm moving to Scotland remember to escape the madness of Shagger's England :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Gove is almost through the ethnicity reassignment process, just some surgery to rectify his annoying, wee, Scotch face and he'll be done.
    Did you mean scorched there TUD.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    Can we expect a 'Why Trump? Not enough cricket' piece from you?

    I read quite a good novel (the title escapes me) a few years ago about an attempt to introduce cricket to the USA. It all dissolved into criminality, almost needless to say.
    Not all.
    The Hollywood cricket club was a long-standing and distinguished institution
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/4V6bR2X86Z077q2JBVHZcp/the-story-behind-the-glamorous-hollywood-cricket-club

    Also described in one of the most entertaining ‘View From the Boundary’ episodes I’ve heard, with the late great Christopher Lee:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08fy5zx
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    This post IS positive. I'm moving to Scotland remember to escape the madness of Shagger's England :)
    Very welcome you are too RP, I hope it is a successful move for you and your family.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    HYUFD said:


    Of course Biden could win, all I am doing is offering a counter view to the certainty of a Biden landslide many on here seem to hold, I am not even a Trump supporter like say Mr Ed

    Can you give an example of someone who's been saying a Biden landslide is a certainty?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    Essex is a largely rural county certainly in the north and given you live in suburban Newcastle you can hardly lecture on what constitutes a rural area
    Neither can you, as you live in suburban London.

    I can see plenty of farmers fields from my house. Doesn’t make where I live rural.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Epping Forest population density: 390 per km^2
    United Kingdom* population density: 280 per km^2

    *Currently includes Epping Forest.
  • Plenty of ex MPs losing seats and ending up in the Lords, sure.
    But fast-tracked into the Lords so you can continue as a Minister? That, I think, (though I'd love to learn differently) is new.
    Lynda Chalker in 1992.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Epping Forest population density: 390 per km^2
    United Kingdom* population density: 280 per km^2

    *Currently includes Epping Forest.

    Are there any trees in that forest
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    HYUFD said:

    I live in Epping, population 11, 461.

    We are hardly a major population centre but still in Tier 2, if we were a market town in Cumbria or North Yorkshire we would likely still only be in Tier 1
    Small market towns in West Yorkshire are also in Tier 2 because of where the borough boundaries lie.

    Otley and Ilkley are Tier 2. Meanwhile Skipton, Ripon, Harrogate and Knaresborough are Tier 1.

    It isn't to do with the size of the town, it depends on council boundaries.
  • HYUFD said:

    What a load of rubbish, for starters rural Lancashire and rural Yorkshire has far more in common with rural Essex than it does with Greater London or Greater Manchester. Indeed rural Scotland has more in common culturally and politically with rural Essex than it does with Glasgow as shown by its strong No vote in 2014 and the number of Tory MPs rural Scotland elected in 2017 and 2019 and the entirety of Antrim is still DUP.

    Though of course if London and the South East was an independent nation it would be one of the wealthiest nations per head not only in Europe but the world so it is not as if the Home Counties have anything to lose but we are stronger together.

    I am also sick to death of being told by the likes of you when rural Yorkshire is in tier 1 and we in rural Essex are in 2 tier and higher restrictions than you are we are giving a sneering dictat, absolutely outrageous and totally fact free!!!!
    That you genuinely believe in your supreme arrogance to speak of places you know nothing about is why what I posted is true.

    you know nothing Jon Snow HYUFD
  • Lynda Chalker in 1992.
    Well you learn something new every day.
    Doesn't make it right.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    Dems are up to 1.61 creeping up slowly a hundredth at a time.

    The market sees no bad news for Trump. I swear to god they will be evens at the off.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    malcolmg said:

    Are there any trees in that forest
    Yes, there's an actual forest! The town of Epping is a London suburb though, the people don't live in the forest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    alex_ said:

    Yes i think this is an important point. That's the only circumstances i can see anyone i know supporting it.

    I am however fully aware that there is a hidden body of opinion who think we should reinstate March lockdown for as long as it takes.

    Another key strand of opinion (which is often quite tricky to read) is people getting very worked up about "idiots" not wearing masks (properly) or basically ignoring social distancing etc. When you dig deeper this annoyance is often (not always by any means) not based upon the health impacts of non-compliance, but more a feeling that it might lead to increased case numbers and triggering additional restrictions. It is the increased restrictions that many people fear, not the virus. There is a lot of suspicion of the presentation of numbers/statistics.
    Yes, I got a sense of that yesterday too, mask wearing should be done to stop the spread so we don't have to go back to lockdown, rather than the actual effects of the virus. The threat of a second national lockdown is definitely a much more powerful motivator for people than people dying IMO, at least from speaking to real people.

    Agree on the suspicion of the data, the change in how they record deaths and the Excel fuck up has damaged confidence in the government's ability to convince people with the data. All of them were surprised when I showed them the R graph that @Malmesbury plotted with my formula, they all thought that the R was going up and out of control. They also said that the government had done a horrible job of communicating what everything actually means and that maybe they'd caused the confusion on purpose so people weren't confident in going out.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    When people cannot even come up with a plausible excuse, it is a bad sign (like when politicians fall back on the 'I'm stupid' defence for some problem).
    The argument seems to be that he deserves an undeserved peerage to compensate for the loss of a former undeserved peerage. Hard to get excited about, and his record over dealing with sex abuse by clergy is iffy.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Epping Forest population density: 390 per km^2
    United Kingdom* population density: 280 per km^2

    *Currently includes Epping Forest.

    Essex population density 499 per km^2

    So its more rural than Essex in general.

    Like most countries the UK's population density is affected by how much of its area is 'empty' rather than rural.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Gove is almost through the ethnicity reassignment process, just some surgery to rectify his annoying, wee, Scotch face and he'll be done.
    Given the amount of egg shortly to be all over his face, Scotch face sounds appropriate actually.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    That you genuinely believe in your supreme arrogance to speak of places you know nothing about is why what I posted is true.

    you know nothing Jon Snow HYUFD
    I’m glad to note that didn’t end with the traditional gasp...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    HYUFD said:

    What a load of rubbish, for starters rural Lancashire and rural Yorkshire has far more in common with rural Essex than it does with Greater London or Greater Manchester. Indeed rural Scotland has more in common culturally and politically with rural Essex than it does with Glasgow as shown by its strong No vote in 2014 and the number of Tory MPs rural Scotland elected in 2017 and 2019 and the entirety of Antrim is still DUP.

    Though of course if London and the South East was an independent nation it would be one of the wealthiest nations per head not only in Europe but the world so it is not as if the Home Counties have anything to lose but we are stronger together.

    I am also sick to death of being told by the likes of you when rural Yorkshire is in tier 1 and we in rural Essex are in 2 tier and higher restrictions than you are we are giving a sneering dictat, absolutely outrageous and totally fact free!!!!
    Careful now; don't go over the top! I've lived in both suburban and rural Essex, and urban and suburban Lancashire and I've got quite a few friends and relations in the North. My experience suggests you're wrong about commonality between rural Essex and rural Yorkshire and Lancashire; they might elect MP's under the same manifesto, but they're often very different.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    If Trump wins it won't be because Trafalgar have an infallible polling method, but for many other reasons: possible late damaging gaffe/revelation from Biden, relief at possible late announcement of a vaccine, malfeasance in the election process, Trump's enduring edge on the economy prevailing over other issues, etc.

    Those are reasons why I am worried that Biden may not win. Not absurd polls from Trafalgar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Careful now; don't go over the top! I've lived in both suburban and rural Essex, and urban and suburban Lancashire and I've got quite a few friends and relations in the North. My experience suggests you're wrong
    You know, I’d never have guessed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266

    imho one of the main reasons Gove has started to be very anti-No Deal Brexit is that he knows a chaotic mess in the New Year will add the final lick of paint to an already almost guaranteed vote Yes for Scottish independence. He has no chance, as a scot, of becoming PM if that happens.

    I think Goves chance of becoming PM are not affected by being Scottish, even post Sindy.

    They are however adversely affected by him being a fish faced gossipy nincompoop.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    edited October 2020

    If Trump wins it won't be because Trafalgar have an infallible polling method, but for many other reasons: possible late damaging gaffe/revelation from Biden...

    Biden's previous claim to fame was plagiarising Neil Kinnock, so if he books a rally in Sheffield, Alabama, it's time to worry.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    HYUFD said:

    No it was not misleading and no Epping is not a London suburb like say Chingford or Woodford, it is a market town in the Essex County Council area not the Greater London Authority that just happens to have the last tube stop on the central line that is all
    Yes. You've got there. In Essex County Council area. Just like we are in Bradford council area. That's what counts. Not the size of the settlement.

    I could rattle off a list of villages in Yorkshire and the North East that are now Tier 2, but there isn't much point. I'll just mention one - Pity Me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    malcolmg said:

    Are there any trees in that forest
    Yes. Lots. The rest of Epping's very built up, though. Apart from the aerodrome.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I got a sense of that yesterday too, mask wearing should be done to stop the spread so we don't have to go back to lockdown, rather than the actual effects of the virus. The threat of a second national lockdown is definitely a much more powerful motivator for people than people dying IMO, at least from speaking to real people.

    Agree on the suspicion of the data, the change in how they record deaths and the Excel fuck up has damaged confidence in the government's ability to convince people with the data. All of them were surprised when I showed them the R graph that @Malmesbury plotted with my formula, they all thought that the R was going up and out of control. They also said that the government had done a horrible job of communicating what everything actually means and that maybe they'd caused the confusion on purpose so people weren't confident in going out.
    Th ironic joke is that in the Cummings (of all people) is right on the systemic use of data in government.

    It is hoarded by various little fiefdoms. Only data that supports the policies of the department (or sub-department) is freely released.

    The comment he made on the Cabinet Room being *less* useful for presentation of data than before WWI* was correct. And this is the deliberate policy of the system of government.

    Ministers are presented with data that shows the departmental policy. They then go off and get information from outside**. This in turns renders them liable to picking up all kinds of bad data.

    Control the data and you control the policy.

    Have you ever noticed how guests on TV programs are never allowed to bring presentations? The presenters can have flashy graphics etc. The interviewee is only allowed words. Its about controlling the situation - allow one graph and they might "take back control"....

    *The fireplace has been blocked off, preventing it's use for destruction of confidential documents. So everything has to be carried out to be shredded.
    **I have been told of instances where officials refused to provide specific information to a minister - One was percentage outcomes of a pilot study. The pilot study was against departmental policy. The results were good - which was "wrong".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    The argument seems to be that he deserves an undeserved peerage to compensate for the loss of a former undeserved peerage. Hard to get excited about, and his record over dealing with sex abuse by clergy is iffy.
    I'm unconcerned whether he has one or not, but as their stated reason for not giving him one is a nonsense, it immediately raises questions about what the actual reason is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    kle4 said:
    That one illustrates a point I have been trying to make - we are back to the 2010-2015 era of major party consensus on the days big issue, and while they squabble over minor differences in opinion (exaggerated in order to give their fans something to distinguish themselves from) a significant minority, or maybe even a small minority, of the public are almost totally unrepresented in parliament
  • kle4 said:

    I'm unconcerned whether he has one or not, but as their reason for not giving him one is a nonsense, it immediately raises questions about what the actual reason is.
    Exactly right - and I was shouted down for saying the same.

    I am sure it's not due to racism but the excuse they gave means I can totally see how people have got there.
  • Foxy said:

    I think Goves chance of becoming PM are not affected by being Scottish, even post Sindy.

    They are however adversely affected by him being a fish faced gossipy nincompoop.
    It's a while since I read Powell's Dance To The Music Of Time books, but there's a real whiff of Widmerpool off Govey.
  • malcolmg said:

    Very welcome you are too RP, I hope it is a successful move for you and your family.
    With Mrs RP, my brother and sister-in-law that's 4 English migrant Yes votes to add to the tally.
  • Its easy to forget that half of English hospital deaths were by 16th April.
This discussion has been closed.