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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Boris response seemed interesting and I expect Bob Neil's amendment will be the final destination of this bill
    That's the off ramp from this that maximises the chance of a deal, minimises the damage to international reputation and gives a fiction that it might get used in the future. Probably as close to a win as the government will get. Still, I have no idea what madness is infecting No 10 on this. This is a fight that can be picked in January if we're out without a deal. Right now I feel like Mr Johnson has sacrificed his footing for a mistimed killing blow (to slightly misquote Liam Neeson).
  • moonshine said:

    I can’t remember such a “tomorrow’s chip paper” argument as this one over the Internal Markets Bill. It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers. He’d no doubt be delighted to get kicked out on a “point of principle”, His political career having pretty much exhausted its usefulness to him.

    I follow politics closer than most and I can’t even remember what the rebellion was over this time last year that saw all those MPs expelled. Those considering the same now would do well to consider what pathetic figures the likes of Stewart, Gauke and Greening now cut, sniping on Twitter to try and preserve some semblance of relevance. Or Hammond, tarting himself like Blair. Major, May and Blair are hardly disinterested parties either.

    It’s all just the rough and tumble of dealing with the EU. I’m in uproar over the government’s Rule of Six and snitching agenda, necessitated only by how ineptly it’s run and communicated the covid response. But I’m giving three cheers that they’re giving a robust response to the EU and are prepared to break a few eggs.

    Nah mate, I have it on good authority from someone in the know Geoffrey is just in it to serve his constituents. I'm sure he could have taken a ministerial position prior to his election to LC if he had wanted. I'm not saying that his private practise isn't priority over politics for him, but got to call out bs when I see it.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Are you looking forward the annual Patriotic Purge?
    The purges will continue until morale improves...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Neil's amendment is worthless

    Might make it through the Commons. Won't make it through the Lords
    It is goes through the HOC I expect it to pass into law
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    It doesn't even do what they claim...

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1305536143031664641
  • The only fact that is apparent (other than you looked up what the UK agriculture sector contributes) is that you know fuck all about the subject you are pontificating on and are debating on a subject that you know as much about as I do about particle physics. The 2Bn is not ludicrous because it includes factors that will not be included in the agriculture figure that you got from Google, such as shops that supply clothing and equipment, B&Bs, hotels, restaurants etc., many of which in places like N Yorks, the West Country and Scottish highlands rely heavily on the very upmarket end of the shooting community to spend very large sums of money (oh no, the hated toffs and rich city types!). So basically, you are allowing your nasty little urban prejudice against people that earn their living in these areas to motivate your ignorant post. So no, it is a shit post. Stick to things you know a little about, then you will look less ignorant.
    But it's not as though that money would simply vanish if it weren't spent on clothing and equipment, B&Bs, hotels, restaurants etc. while shooting birds. It would be spent on something else, or possibly the same stuff while participating in some other outdoor pursuit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2020

    The only fact that is apparent (other than you looked up what the UK agriculture sector contributes) is that you know fuck all about the subject you are pontificating on and are debating on a subject that you know as much about as I do about particle physics. The 2Bn is not ludicrous because it includes factors that will not be included in the agriculture figure that you got from Google, such as shops that supply clothing and equipment, B&Bs, hotels, restaurants etc., many of which in places like N Yorks, the West Country and Scottish highlands rely heavily on the very upmarket end of the shooting community to spend very large sums of money (oh no, the hated toffs and rich city types!). So basically, you are allowing your nasty little urban prejudice against people that earn their living in these areas to motivate your ignorant post. So no, it is a shit post. Stick to things you know a little about, then you will look less ignorant.
    That's a good point.

    Its worth noting that while "agriculture" is worth £12bn to the UK economy, "food and drink" (production, not pubs/restaurants) is worth £120bn. We export over £24bn of food and drink per annum. The overall sector is worth 10x just what is grown on the land or fished out of the water.

    So once you include multipliers £2bn becomes entirely plausible. It would put it at 1.66% of what food and drink is worth, not 1/6th of it.
  • Boris saying if these powers were exercised that they would introduce a Statutory Instrument on which a vote would be held, how is that any different to the Neill Amendment?

    I wondered that point and even thought Boris has accepting the Neil amendment in his mind
  • The only fact that is apparent (other than you looked up what the UK agriculture sector contributes) is that you know fuck all about the subject you are pontificating on and are debating on a subject that you know as much about as I do about particle physics. The 2Bn is not ludicrous because it includes factors that will not be included in the agriculture figure that you got from Google, such as shops that supply clothing and equipment, B&Bs, hotels, restaurants etc., many of which in places like N Yorks, the West Country and Scottish highlands rely heavily on the very upmarket end of the shooting community to spend very large sums of money (oh no, the hated toffs and rich city types!). So basically, you are allowing your nasty little urban prejudice against people that earn their living in these areas to motivate your ignorant post. So no, it is a shit post. Stick to things you know a little about, then you will look less ignorant.
    Gosh, I used to think this was a forum for civilised discussion and debate, with some betting.....
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,069

    Or wondering if there is intelligent life in Westminster....
    Lol.
    That's the source of Pulpstars " hitherto unknown method of phosphine production"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    nico679 said:

    Apparently more audio taped conversations between Trump and Woodward are due to be released at midday eastern time on CNN so expect an imminent Trump twitter meltdown .

    This was a fairly unpleasant example from earlier stuff.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/woodward-trump-book-rage-review.html
    ...When Woodward asks what it was like to meet Kim at their first summit in Singapore, Trump responds, “It was the most cameras I think I’ve seen, more cameras than any human being in history,” even more than he’d seen at the Academy Awards.

    He then gives Woodward a poster-size copy of a photo of Trump and Kim shaking hands at the border separating North and South Korea. “This is me and him,” he tells Woodward, all excited. “That’s the line, right? Then I walked over the line. Pretty cool.” He goes on to brag that Kim “tells me everything. … He killed his uncle and put the body right in the steps where the senators walked out. And the head was cut, sitting on the chest. … Nancy Pelosi said, ‘Oh, let’s impeach him.’ You think that’s tough? This is tough.”...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited September 2020
    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1305534217019953152

    Maricopa county was 62% of the total Arizona vote in 2016. The only county that dominates it's state more is Clark in Nevada. High urbanisation here makes sense if you think about it, the desert isn't exactly fertile farmland.
  • Scott_xP said:
    The problem is that Boris has the mindset of a newspaper columnist - say any old crap as long as it meets the deadline; no one will remember a word of it within half a day of reading it anyway.
  • I have so missed Ed M
  • Nigelb said:

    This was a fairly unpleasant example from earlier stuff.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/woodward-trump-book-rage-review.html
    ...When Woodward asks what it was like to meet Kim at their first summit in Singapore, Trump responds, “It was the most cameras I think I’ve seen, more cameras than any human being in history,” even more than he’d seen at the Academy Awards.

    He then gives Woodward a poster-size copy of a photo of Trump and Kim shaking hands at the border separating North and South Korea. “This is me and him,” he tells Woodward, all excited. “That’s the line, right? Then I walked over the line. Pretty cool.” He goes on to brag that Kim “tells me everything. … He killed his uncle and put the body right in the steps where the senators walked out. And the head was cut, sitting on the chest. … Nancy Pelosi said, ‘Oh, let’s impeach him.’ You think that’s tough? This is tough.”...
    50 odd days to save American democracy.
  • Thank goodness we missed the chaos of this guy.
  • Thank goodness we missed the chaos of this guy.

    He would be a much better PM than Boris Johnson.
  • Johnson not happy as Miliband tears into him. Pass the popcorn.

  • novanova Posts: 737
    edited September 2020

    Boris saying if these powers were exercised that they would introduce a Statutory Instrument on which a vote would be held, how is that any different to the Neill Amendment?

    Is it just possible that some MPs might not trust Boris to do what he says?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,069
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1305534217019953152

    Maricopa county was 62% of the total Arizona vote in 2016. The only county that dominates it's state more is Clark in Nevada. High urbanisation here makes sense if you think about it, the desert isn't exactly fertile farmland.

    And here I was wondering what Maricopa was. The state combination of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Colorado and Pensylvania seemed a bit curve ball to me.
  • The Tory interventions are making it worse. Miliband seems to be well briefed on good retorts.
  • Johnson not happy as Miliband tears into him. Pass the popcorn.

    Miliband is very good today
  • Miliband is on fire, hot hot fire.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    You'd have to hope parliament does its job here (and the Lords subsequently) - I am deeply uncomfortable as a Conservative breaking international law.
  • Good shut down of the Brexit question
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    He would be a much better PM than Boris Johnson.
    If only anyone had wanted him...
  • How many will lose the Whip later tonight?
  • Miliband is taking Boris apart
  • How many will lose the Whip later tonight?

    Nobody
  • When you are being ripped to shreds by Ed Miliband you have problems.
  • Johnson is looking like he's lost his marbles
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    edited September 2020

    When you are being ripped to shreds by Ed Miliband you have problems.

    He's one of the smartest people in the Commons.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    Giving way to the PM to answer complex technical questions. Clever.
    Now quoting the PM back at him.
    Go Ed.
  • Labour under Starmer is a professional force once again, more like Ed M on the frontbench please
  • Miliband is taking Boris apart

    Yep. We are getting a taste in a minor way of the way Gordo used to tear Major's government to shreds.
  • https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1305540743851802626

    I wonder if Johnson will tender his resignation next year
  • The only fact that is apparent (other than you looked up what the UK agriculture sector contributes) is that you know fuck all about the subject you are pontificating on and are debating on a subject that you know as much about as I do about particle physics. The 2Bn is not ludicrous because it includes factors that will not be included in the agriculture figure that you got from Google, such as shops that supply clothing and equipment, B&Bs, hotels, restaurants etc., many of which in places like N Yorks, the West Country and Scottish highlands rely heavily on the very upmarket end of the shooting community to spend very large sums of money (oh no, the hated toffs and rich city types!). So basically, you are allowing your nasty little urban prejudice against people that earn their living in these areas to motivate your ignorant post. So no, it is a shit post. Stick to things you know a little about, then you will look less ignorant.
    You can do this kind of exercise with any small part of the economy, by folding in any ancillary activity that is tangentially related until you make the number ten times bigger. The problem is that when you do this multiple times for every part of the economy, you end up with a nonsensical argument that the sum of all these sectors that add £xbn to GDP is many times larger than the whole of the economy. It's called double counting.
    Plus of course if wealthy City types didn't go shooting, would all of the money they currently spend on shooting just evaporate? Or would they spend it on something else? Would UK GDP actually be £2bn smaller if shooting wasn't a thing? I think we both know that the answer to that is no.
    Since I am not even proposing that shooting shouldn't exist, I don't know why you are getting so irate. I just don't like economically illiterate lobbyist reports for the numerically challenged presented up as serious analysis.
  • Labour under Starmer is a professional force once again, more like Ed M on the frontbench please

    Probably good for labour that Starmer was unavailable, he would not have been better than Miliband
  • This is one of the most savage dissections of Johnson by Miliband imaginable; great stuff. Methodical, detailed and, dare I say, forensic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    RH1992 said:

    The French police is definitely a reason. Their behaviour isn't far off some of the nonsense that American police officers can get away with.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/french-reporter-who-joined-police-exposes-racism-and-violence-valentin-gendrot
    I've mentioned before that one of their standard practices is to seize the tents and sleeping bags of those sleeping rough on the basis that it is illegal outside the authorised camps (which they closed, natch) leaving people exposed to the elements and with no offer of shelter.
  • I expect it's true.

    It wouldn't surprise me if record numbers get across this week. And I mean comfortably into four figures.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267

    Labour under Starmer is a professional force once again, more like Ed M on the frontbench please

    Trouble is though, a miniscule amount of the electorate will be watching this. Ed is saying "it`s his deal, it`s his mess" - maybe Labour should vote for it? Labour cannot afford to appear "unpatriotic" in ceding ground to the other side in a complex and brutal negotiation, like they did last year.
  • Stocky said:

    Trouble is though, a miniscule amount of the electorate will be watching this. Ed is saying "it`s his deal, it`s his mess" - maybe Labour should vote for it? Labour cannot afford to appear "unpatriotic" in ceding ground to the other side in a complex and brutal negotiation, like they did last year.
    Ed M said Labour in essence supports the deal as Johnson signed it originally, the oven ready deal Johnson promised. I think it's a master stroke
  • https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1305540743851802626

    I wonder if Johnson will tender his resignation next year

    When you've wanted something so much for so long, and you know that you've sold your soul to get it, and it turns out to have way more dust and ash than you expected...

    BoJo is the Dudley Moore character in Bedazzled, isn't he?
  • https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1305540743851802626

    I wonder if Johnson will tender his resignation next year

    QTWAIN.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited September 2020

    Ed M said Labour in essence supports the deal as Johnson signed it originally, the oven ready deal Johnson promised. I think it's a master stroke
    By support, you mean voted against (and other ways of getting Brexit done) it time and time again?

    I think you are overplaying this "master stroke", when most people realized that Labour did everything possible to stop Brexit in the last parliament and voted accordingly. You can't just then say, well forget all that, especially as the architect of their non-Brexit policy is now leader.

    This line is just a repeat of last parliament, where it was always "well we would support, but"...like Columbo's just one more thing.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    It must nice for a historic loser like Ed Miliband to experience occasional delusions of adequacy...
  • QTWAIN.
    I don't know if you're watching it Philip, but your hero is looking distinctly uncomfortable and very fed up.
  • PB Tories are gutted Johnson isn't up to it
  • It must nice for a historic loser like Ed Miliband to experience occasional delusions of adequacy...
    EICIPM!
  • PB Tories are gutted Johnson isn't up to it

    I am not
  • PB Tories are gutted Johnson isn't up to it

    Not this one!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.
  • Boris and Mourinho - you're not special any more....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited September 2020
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    Apparently it all came out of some away day they did. I don't want whatever they were drinking / smoking at the retreat. Did they go on some iowaska trip? That definitely sounds like up Cummings alley.
  • DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    They were not thinking
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1305534217019953152

    Maricopa county was 62% of the total Arizona vote in 2016. The only county that dominates it's state more is Clark in Nevada. High urbanisation here makes sense if you think about it, the desert isn't exactly fertile farmland.

    Mike Slaven needs to give more than "I was reading" as his source. THere is no way on earth that GOP strategists can be consdiering losing Maricopa to pickup voets elsewhere. It's like dropping a fifty pound note to collect pennies from the ground.
  • Off topic, the Government is failing to think 2-3 steps ahead here.

    Right now, it's all "Brexit". That will expire in the next 6-12 months and they'd do well to remember why so many people voted Brexit: immigration control.

    There was a previous PM who promised to get a grip of it, and then failed to do so.

    It didn't have a happy ending.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    Just shows what a class performer Dave was.
    Having to face the titan that is Ed M and come out on top in the end.
    How politics has fallen since 2015.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
  • It's again striking just how unhealthy Johnson appears. He looks much, much older than he is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760

    Apparently it all came out of some away day they did. I don't want whatever they were drinking / smoking at the retreat. Did they go on some iowaska trip? That definitely sounds like up Cummings alley.
    The absolute last thing that Brexit needed was an excuse for remainers to feel all morally superior again. Its like catnip, they can't resist it and it goes on for days and days.
  • PB Tories are gutted Johnson isn't up to it

    Few "PB Tories" are fans of Johnson.
  • DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    This has Cummings all over it.

  • Scott_xP said:
    There is one thing that the Tories don't mess about with, crap leaders get binned off. I fully expect Boris to get a visit next year to inform him his skills might be better served on the speaking tour.
  • It's again striking just how unhealthy Johnson appears. He looks much, much older than he is.

    Boris debating ability was always overstated and we know he was lazy. Very different to make a funny quip to being able to hold the house. However, COVID has definitely done him in. He can rarely find a funny and appear to forgets or misunderstands things that have just been stated e.g. at those daily briefings, he got in terrible mess with questions from the members of the public.
  • Officials in Marseille say the city is facing a spike in coronavirus cases, and that hospitals are close to running out of space to treat people with the virus.
  • 2,621 new cases of coronavirus across the UK
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760
    Stocky said:

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    But its utterly counter-productive. The reason we seemed to be making some progress at last, not least on LPF, was that the EU no longer had the option of running behind the government's back and getting the House of Commons to completely undermine it's position in the way that consistently happened to May. And here we are again. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    Stocky said:

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
  • Quite a good effort from Ed from what I saw, but, to be honest, it was shooting fish in a barrel.

    Shooting fish in a barrel adds £42bn to the UK economy, don't knock it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,998
    edited September 2020
    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760

    There is one thing that the Tories don't mess about with, crap leaders get binned off. I fully expect Boris to get a visit next year to inform him his skills might be better served on the speaking tour.
    Next year is looking a very long way away right now.
  • It's again striking just how unhealthy Johnson appears. He looks much, much older than he is.

    To be fair he's had Covid-19. And he has a newborn baby. And being PM is an extremely stressful job.

    I doubt he's enjoying it.
  • Scott_xP said:
    If I was the PM I might have something better to do than to listen to Blackford too.
  • Blackford has raised his game for once....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    OnboardG1 said:

    That's the off ramp from this that maximises the chance of a deal, minimises the damage to international reputation and gives a fiction that it might get used in the future. Probably as close to a win as the government will get. Still, I have no idea what madness is infecting No 10 on this. This is a fight that can be picked in January if we're out without a deal. Right now I feel like Mr Johnson has sacrificed his footing for a mistimed killing blow (to slightly misquote Liam Neeson).
    The idea is to divert attention from the testing system buckling under the strain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,760

    This has Cummings all over it.

    Cummings knows how to win. This is how to lose.
  • rcs1000 said:

    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
This discussion has been closed.