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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    Off topic, the Government is failing to think 2-3 steps ahead here.

    Right now, it's all "Brexit". That will expire in the next 6-12 months and they'd do well to remember why so many people voted Brexit: immigration control.

    There was a previous PM who promised to get a grip of it, and then failed to do so.

    It didn't have a happy ending.

    Ahhh... You're missing the genius of this plan.

    By making the UK unattractive to foreign investment, you keep out immigrants from developed countries, and it's only people from the third world who will want to come.

    This lowers overall immigration.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    How do you propose we deal with it? Without departing one inch from international law, of course, since that's apparently the most important thing.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
  • Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
    Boris has a clear poll lead, as long as that remains the case he is safe
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the Government is failing to think 2-3 steps ahead here.

    Right now, it's all "Brexit". That will expire in the next 6-12 months and they'd do well to remember why so many people voted Brexit: immigration control.

    There was a previous PM who promised to get a grip of it, and then failed to do so.

    It didn't have a happy ending.

    Ahhh... You're missing the genius of this plan.

    By making the UK unattractive to foreign investment, you keep out immigrants from developed countries, and it's only people from the third world who will want to come.

    This lowers overall immigration.
    This is presumably why immigration is currently at a record high?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited September 2020

    How do you propose we deal with it? Without departing one inch from international law, of course, since that's apparently the most important thing.
    I'm planning to write a blogpost on this.

    Edit: incidentally, the international conventions and arrangements on this will almost certainly need to change since they are politically unsustainable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Off topic, the Government is failing to think 2-3 steps ahead here.

    Right now, it's all "Brexit". That will expire in the next 6-12 months and they'd do well to remember why so many people voted Brexit: immigration control.

    There was a previous PM who promised to get a grip of it, and then failed to do so.

    It didn't have a happy ending.

    Ahhh... You're missing the genius of this plan.

    By making the UK unattractive to foreign investment, you keep out immigrants from developed countries, and it's only people from the third world who will want to come.

    This lowers overall immigration.
    Yup. That'll be popular.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    How do you propose we deal with it? Without departing one inch from international law, of course, since that's apparently the most important thing.
    This isn't complicated. You process people quickly, and you charter jets to the countries of origin. It's initially very expensive, but who will pay a people trafficker to get rapidly returned to Syria?

    Right now, the UK is an attractive destination because we take five years to process applications.
  • HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    He beat Corbyn - the man with the worst ever LOTO ratings. No big deal as we see him floundering against Starmer.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
    Boris has a clear poll lead, as long as that remains the case he is safe
    He is a car crash at present and I do think covid is part of it but Cummings is malign
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
    This one - Le Touquet: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42723401

    It dealt with security at the ports and the Chunnel. Not with boats, which is where that activity has now been displaced toward.

    The optics of UK borders being breached daily by small boats are simply f*king horrible for HMG - would be for any Government - and it will come under immense pressure to act which requires international agreement.
  • HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    Buit maybe not as PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    He beat Corbyn - the man with the worst ever LOTO ratings. No big deal as we see him floundering against Starmer.
    Corbyn, the man who almost beat May and beat Cameron in the 2016 local elections and who Boris trounced to win the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher?

    Get rid of Boris and the Tories face the same fate as when they got rid of Thatcher or when Labour forced Blair to leave early, out of power for a generation.

    Their only hope would be Sunak could do a John Major 1992 but shifting to a soft Brexit would lose lots of Leavers to the Brexit Party, scrapping the poll tax had little electoral cost
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition

    Yes, assuming of course you care more about party and electoral victory than the country and its management.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849

    Ouch.

    Will someone please put Boris out of his misery – it will be an act of mercy.

    Sunak is an oven-ready PM.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    If France do that he should do the Australian solution to get the migration to stop - write a cheque to a third world country, instantaneous deportation of anyone who makes it across the water to there pending processing or them opting to go back home. Illegal boat migration stopped very quickly once they did that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    PB Tories are gutted Johnson isn't up to it

    Not here...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    He beat Corbyn - the man with the worst ever LOTO ratings. No big deal as we see him floundering against Starmer.
    Followed by Ed Milliband, Johnson was just made to look like a rank amateur.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    What happened to the 4 minute rule?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    What gets me is why did he not leave others to open and close this debate?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited September 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    If I was the PM I might have something better to do than to listen to Blackford too.
    The leader of the second biggest [edit] opposition party in the HoC, much larger than the LDs?

    And intent on the dissolution [edit] of the Union which Mr Johnson's party pretends to conserve?

    Mr J has to learn very quick to face the SNP without telying on backbencher monkey house calls, deflective jokes, or simply running away.
  • rcs1000 said:

    How do you propose we deal with it? Without departing one inch from international law, of course, since that's apparently the most important thing.
    This isn't complicated. You process people quickly, and you charter jets to the countries of origin. It's initially very expensive, but who will pay a people trafficker to get rapidly returned to Syria?

    Right now, the UK is an attractive destination because we take five years to process applications.
    Yes but, and I know it's "unparliamentary language", activist lawyers are definitely a thing. And the law is full of loopholes for them to exploit here.

    There are many on the Left (a whole web of sympathetic lawyers, charities and donors) who make it their prime objective to eliminate any deportations, using any and all possible grounds.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It's again striking just how unhealthy Johnson appears. He looks much, much older than he is.

    To be fair he's had Covid-19. And he has a newborn baby. And being PM is an extremely stressful job.

    I doubt he's enjoying it.
    Here he is in March, pre-Covid (his covid, that is.) Doesn't look great then, either.

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/brexit-personnel-change-coronavirus-the-first-100-days-of-boris-johnsons-government
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    This has Cummings all over it.

    Cummings knows how to win. This is how to lose.

    Campaigning is not governing. Therein lies the problem.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    rcs1000 said:

    How do you propose we deal with it? Without departing one inch from international law, of course, since that's apparently the most important thing.
    This isn't complicated. You process people quickly, and you charter jets to the countries of origin. It's initially very expensive, but who will pay a people trafficker to get rapidly returned to Syria?

    Right now, the UK is an attractive destination because we take five years to process applications.
    Yes but, and I know it's "unparliamentary language", activist lawyers are definitely a thing. And the law is full of loopholes for them to exploit here.

    There are many on the Left (a whole web of sympathetic lawyers, charities and donors) who make it their prime objective to eliminate any deportations, using any and all possible grounds.
    Which is true and surely it would be a better and more popular use of this week in Parliament to fix that rather than fixing something Boris screwed up 9 months ago.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849

    Ouch.

    Will someone please put Boris out of his misery – it will be an act of mercy.

    Sunak is an oven-ready PM.
    Probably as good as the oven ready deal, not proven no real experience.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Am I the only one who is baffled by what seems to be a confected row about shooting?

    Surely as an organised sport it should be exempt anyway?

    What's the problem?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Javid looking at a post BoZo future

    Not that far away...

    If the bill fails, do you think Bozo will resign?
    Not enough creatures with a backbone in Westminster for the bill to fail.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    nichomar said:

    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849

    Ouch.

    Will someone please put Boris out of his misery – it will be an act of mercy.

    Sunak is an oven-ready PM.
    Probably as good as the oven ready deal, not proven no real experience.
    And Boris is proven with real experience.

    Sunak is as good as there is on the Government benches...
  • novanova Posts: 690

    Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    Has Cummings seen Weekend at Bernie's?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    That was back in July, rather than now. If they meet the regs, then they could be playing competitive rubber sucker darts for all the regs care.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Am I the only one who is baffled by what seems to be a confected row about shooting?

    Surely as an organised sport it should be exempt anyway?

    What's the problem?

    Nothing - it is a distraction from today's main story.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
    This one - Le Touquet: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42723401

    It dealt with security at the ports and the Chunnel. Not with boats, which is where that activity has now been displaced toward.

    The optics of UK borders being breached daily by small boats are simply f*king horrible for HMG - would be for any Government - and it will come under immense pressure to act which requires international agreement.
    International agreement with whom though?

    The French can't, don't want to and won't agree to stop it.

    OTOH if we go down the Australian route to stop the migration then it would require agreement with another country that we could send illegal migrants to pending processing - and a willingness to override international law like Australia did.
  • malcolmg22malcolmg22 Posts: 327
    edited September 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    It was the thick balloon's agreement, he really is mushed up in the head.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849

    Ouch.

    Will someone please put Boris out of his misery – it will be an act of mercy.

    Sunak is an oven-ready PM.
    Probably as good as the oven ready deal, not proven no real experience.
    And Boris is proven with real experience.

    Sunak is as good as there is on the Government benches...
    Well that just about sums up the whole place, rank amateurs the lot.
  • Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    Michael Gove dying his hair blond is a sign he is still dreaming of doing away with the frontman.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    nichomar said:

    Bloody hell, how totally humiliating for Johnson ...
    https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1305543806461390849

    Ouch.

    Will someone please put Boris out of his misery – it will be an act of mercy.

    Sunak is an oven-ready PM.
    Probably as good as the oven ready deal, not proven no real experience.
    Oh yes sure, but vastly superior to the inveterate clown currently in the hot seat.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Why is the government so opposed to border checks between GB and NI? Or indeed NI and ROI? I thought they wanted to leave the EU. Forming a border would seem to be the idea, no?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
    Boris has a clear poll lead, as long as that remains the case he is safe
    He is a car crash at present and I do think covid is part of it but Cummings is malign
    If it is the after effects of Covid-19 we should be a little more understanding, that would only be fair.

    The trouble is, Johnson has always been idle, feckless and conniving, so why should we believe the chicanery over the WA, the utter contempt he shows by not even bothering to brief himself on today's bill is down to Covid and not a fundamental personality flaw?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
    This one - Le Touquet: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42723401

    It dealt with security at the ports and the Chunnel. Not with boats, which is where that activity has now been displaced toward.

    The optics of UK borders being breached daily by small boats are simply f*king horrible for HMG - would be for any Government - and it will come under immense pressure to act which requires international agreement.
    International agreement with whom though?

    The French can't, don't want to and won't agree to stop it.

    OTOH if we go down the Australian route to stop the migration then it would require agreement with another country that we could send illegal migrants to pending processing - and a willingness to override international law like Australia did.
    We'd definitely need an agreement with France, and yes - they would agree to the right measures. If the UK route doesn't work far fewer will bother even trying to come to France (which isn't their desired end destination).

    I will write more on this in a blog in the near future.
  • Scott_xP said:
    If I was the PM I might have something better to do than to listen to Blackford too.
    Dear Dear the man is a real arse, straight for the fridge.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
    Boris has a clear poll lead, as long as that remains the case he is safe
    He is a car crash at present and I do think covid is part of it but Cummings is malign
    If it is the after effects of Covid-19 we should be a little more understanding, that would only be fair.

    The trouble is, Johnson has always been idle, feckless and conniving, so why should we believe the chicanery over the WA, the utter contempt he shows by not even bothering to brief himself on today's bill is down to Covid and not a fundamental personality flaw?
    Why, if he’s not up to the job he should resign. No room for understanding.
  • RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
    This one - Le Touquet: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42723401

    It dealt with security at the ports and the Chunnel. Not with boats, which is where that activity has now been displaced toward.

    The optics of UK borders being breached daily by small boats are simply f*king horrible for HMG - would be for any Government - and it will come under immense pressure to act which requires international agreement.
    International agreement with whom though?

    The French can't, don't want to and won't agree to stop it.

    OTOH if we go down the Australian route to stop the migration then it would require agreement with another country that we could send illegal migrants to pending processing - and a willingness to override international law like Australia did.
    We'd definitely need an agreement with France, and yes - they would agree to the right measures. If the UK route doesn't work far fewer will bother even trying to come to France (which isn't their desired end destination).

    I will write more on this in a blog in the near future.
    My preferred solution would be to reach a bilateral agreement with Turkey, anyone who makes it to the UK illegally is immediately taken to Turkey for processing. That would really make people stop doing the route illegally and if people then decide to recross the continent illegally again they'd need to recross the entire continent.
  • New Welsh poll. Labour on its GE result. Interesting that both the Tories and BXP have fallen back. Plaid the big gainers since December.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1305551536420986887
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Isn't there some other treaty with France, independent of EU membership, that deals with the migrants? (Leavers made great play of it during the Brexit referendum.)
    This one - Le Touquet: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42723401

    It dealt with security at the ports and the Chunnel. Not with boats, which is where that activity has now been displaced toward.

    The optics of UK borders being breached daily by small boats are simply f*king horrible for HMG - would be for any Government - and it will come under immense pressure to act which requires international agreement.
    International agreement with whom though?

    The French can't, don't want to and won't agree to stop it.

    OTOH if we go down the Australian route to stop the migration then it would require agreement with another country that we could send illegal migrants to pending processing - and a willingness to override international law like Australia did.
    We'd definitely need an agreement with France, and yes - they would agree to the right measures. If the UK route doesn't work far fewer will bother even trying to come to France (which isn't their desired end destination).

    I will write more on this in a blog in the near future.
    My preferred solution would be to reach a bilateral agreement with Turkey, anyone who makes it to the UK illegally is immediately taken to Turkey for processing. That would really make people stop doing the route illegally and if people then decide to recross the continent illegally again they'd need to recross the entire continent.
    A very quick way: the French agree to British border force boats being positioned off their coast in the "high risk" area only 2-3 miles off the coast, with liaison officers on board if needs be.

    They then intercept all the boats and return them to French ports.

    It'd stop overnight.

    (precedent: similar to what we already do with French border officers at St. Pancras and British at Gare du Nord)
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    More saturation doesn't improve it.

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited September 2020

    Am I the only one who is baffled by what seems to be a confected row about shooting?

    Surely as an organised sport it should be exempt anyway?

    What's the problem?

    Things like paintball, ultimate frisbee and yatching have also been include in the exemptions. It is definitely making just making a row by highlighting that one activity, that sets lots of people off. There would be a point if all organized sporting activity were banned, except for shooting.

    I think keeping gyms open is far worse problem than worrying about if some bloke can go and shoot a pheasant.
  • Keir is getting the votes where he needs them, he's taking a strategic, data-driven approach to winning back the seats to get Labour into Government
  • Scott_xP said:
    If I was the PM I might have something better to do than to listen to Blackford too.
    It's basic manners. PMs usually sit and listen to the leaders of the opposition parties at least. It shows his typical disrespect for Parliament I'm afraid. When May was in trouble she sat in the HoC for hours responding to questions and points. She has more guts than Johnson.
    However just what you would expect from a low Tory like Philip, he does not have principles like yourself. The oicks are in charge of the Tories unfortunately , no morals and no principles, ignorant and nasty.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris response seemed interesting and I expect Bob Neil's amendment will be the final destination of this bill

    Neil's amendment is worthless

    Might make it through the Commons. Won't make it through the Lords
    It is goes through the HOC I expect it to pass into law
    Does this bill more or less not mean that ministers can pass law by fiat?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    More saturation doesn't improve it.

    image
    Haunted , he has had a visit from the ghost of the future by the looks of it.
  • eek said:

    Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    What gets me is why did he not leave others to open and close this debate?
    Logically, there are two possibilities.

    One is that he (or his advisers) genuinely thought it would help.

    The other is that nobody else would; "Prime Minister, I am sure you could make the case better than I..." Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    Valiant try for your hero Rob but nobody is fooled, a blind man can see you are clutching at straws.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    New Welsh poll. Labour on its GE result. Interesting that both the Tories and BXP have fallen back. Plaid the big gainers since December.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1305551536420986887

    Drakeford and Gething (and I am not a fan of either) have had quite a good Covid, particularly Drakeford.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that this was so unnecessary, so self inflicted, so pointless. It's caused real damage to both the government and Boris. What were they thinking? I just can't work it out.

    I think it`s the last throw of the dice to get a decent deal out of the EU. If this bill fails I think it will be no trade deal - at least initially.
    If the bill passes there won't be a deal. Why would the EU do a deal with a country that repudiated a deal you signed with them eight months ago?
    Has Boris considered the politics for him if there's No Deal and then France (and other countries) simply wave through all migrants to Britain, and refuse to take any returnees?

    He could get eaten alive three-ways next year. Starmer on competence and economics. Sturgeon on Scotland and the Union. Farage on migration.

    This is why I'm laying his 2024 exit (or later) like an absolute mother.
    Boris has to go, the only question is when but the sooner the better
    Boris has a clear poll lead, as long as that remains the case he is safe
    He is a car crash at present and I do think covid is part of it but Cummings is malign
    If it is the after effects of Covid-19 we should be a little more understanding, that would only be fair.

    The trouble is, Johnson has always been idle, feckless and conniving, so why should we believe the chicanery over the WA, the utter contempt he shows by not even bothering to brief himself on today's bill is down to Covid and not a fundamental personality flaw?
    Fair my arse, tarring and feathering is too good for the bum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    New Welsh poll. Labour on its GE result. Interesting that both the Tories and BXP have fallen back. Plaid the big gainers since December.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1305551536420986887

    Plaid are unchanged, the gainers are Labour and the BXP
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    Ooh, has he been reverse Gina Miller-ed?!
  • Labour's travel is to a poll lead, Tories is to a loss in support on 2019.

    I think that will be the high water mark for Tory support
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    @Tissue_Price supporting the bill.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    Valiant try for your hero Rob but nobody is fooled, a blind man can see you are clutching at straws.
    I thought he looked not so much ill, as utterly gormless.

    Worst Commons performance from a sedentary position that I've seen.
    As @TSE might put it, he shat the front bench.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    Nope - Boris wanted to be famous, and he will be for destroying the UK...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Andy_JS said:

    If you assign Arizona and Florida to the GOP, Trump's overall chances rise to 56%.

    https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/

    Well as the GP always says -

    Don't do that then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    Nope - Boris wanted to be famous, and he will be for destroying the UK...
    He won't there will be no indyref2 allowed by Boris and the bill tonight is aimed at ensuring no border in the Irish Sea
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    eek said:

    Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    What gets me is why did he not leave others to open and close this debate?
    Logically, there are two possibilities.

    One is that he (or his advisers) genuinely thought it would help.

    The other is that nobody else would; "Prime Minister, I am sure you could make the case better than I..." Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?
    As you say - I think it's the latter, everyone is making sure Bozo and Gove own this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    More saturation doesn't improve it.

    image
    It looks like Mr Johnson has shared some of Mr Gove's good stuff. I mean a wee dram, of course.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Here's a cheeky question.

    Suppose Boris wanted to step down. Because, let's be honest, he has the look of someone not long for this world.

    Dom presumably wouldn't want him to, because he'd be out as well, 'cos nobody is engineering Gove into the top job.

    Who wins that battle of wills?
    What gets me is why did he not leave others to open and close this debate?
    Logically, there are two possibilities.

    One is that he (or his advisers) genuinely thought it would help.

    The other is that nobody else would; "Prime Minister, I am sure you could make the case better than I..." Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?
    As you say - I think it's the latter, everyone is making sure Bozo and Gove own this.
    Always watch for those not making much noise....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    The conservatives are growing in number who want him to stand down

    He is not well and today was so embarrassing and avoidable

    Breaking an international treaty is a catastrophic error of judgement by Boris or Cummings or both

    Time for them both to leave
  • HYUFD said:

    New Welsh poll. Labour on its GE result. Interesting that both the Tories and BXP have fallen back. Plaid the big gainers since December.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1305551536420986887

    Plaid are unchanged, the gainers are Labour and the BXP
    Plaid were on 9.9% at the GE.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price supporting the bill.

    Good man. What did he say?
  • Sheffield United appear to still be on their summer holidays.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    Valiant try for your hero Rob but nobody is fooled, a blind man can see you are clutching at straws.
    I thought he looked not so much ill, as utterly gormless.

    Worst Commons performance from a sedentary position that I've seen.
    As @TSE might put it, he shat the front bench.
    I think he's fine as regards all that. He looks himself and he sounds himself. A bit fitter if anything. This is what we elected. No point pretending otherwise.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Intriguing to me how wound up / excited this forum is about this bill, on most of the tabloids’ websites it’s hard to find mention of the story. It’s without doubt Covid and the Rule of 6 that is upsetting people in the real world, when I chat to cross sections of the public (although Casino is right, those on the south coast have the Dover crossings a close second). Arguing the tealeaves on this bill is for the obsessives. Either it’ll be No Deal which Boris won’t mind politically at all, or a deal he will inevitably champion from the rooftop, which will be fine too. Not much to gain vote wise from today’s point scoring.

    And not that I’m his biggest fan on his handling of covid but the PM is getting a get out of jail free card on the defining issue of the day of covid, with now not one but two major pharmas likely to announce a vaccine within 6 weeks. One thing the Uk has done right is massive upfront payments to secure a broad mix of vaccines early.

    So both issues will be over as a story comfortably by next summer. Just in time for Scottish Indie to rear its head with the Scottish elections....

    A pre election exit date will I think be determined by health or personal factors, rather than politics. Shaky ground to bet on I would suggest but you guys are the experts so knock yourselves out.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price supporting the bill.

    At least someone understands what loyalty and discipline mean.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    The conservatives are growing in number who want him to stand down

    He is not well and today was so embarrassing and avoidable

    Breaking an international treaty is a catastrophic error of judgement by Boris or Cummings or both

    Time for them both to leave
    Treaties should not be considered sacrosanct.

    There's a lot we could and should sort out by breaking a couple more treaties.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    I can't speak for Labour, although I am sympathetic to Starmer's party. I don't fear Johnson's electoral invincibility. In fact I would consider him a massive liability, if not quite yet, very shortly.
  • moonshine said:

    Intriguing to me how wound up / excited this forum is about this bill, on most of the tabloids’ websites it’s hard to find mention of the story. It’s without doubt Covid and the Rule of 6 that is upsetting people in the real world, when I chat to cross sections of the public (although Casino is right, those on the south coast have the Dover crossings a close second). Arguing the tealeaves on this bill is for the obsessives. Either it’ll be No Deal which Boris won’t mind politically at all, or a deal he will inevitably champion from the rooftop, which will be fine too. Not much to gain vote wise from today’s point scoring.

    And not that I’m his biggest fan on his handling of covid but the PM is getting a get out of jail free card on the defining issue of the day of covid, with now not one but two major pharmas likely to announce a vaccine within 6 weeks. One thing the Uk has done right is massive upfront payments to secure a broad mix of vaccines early.

    So both issues will be over as a story comfortably by next summer. Just in time for Scottish Indie to rear its head with the Scottish elections....

    A pre election exit date will I think be determined by health or personal factors, rather than politics. Shaky ground to bet on I would suggest but you guys are the experts so knock yourselves out.

    The rules of 6, meaning little Johnny can't have a birthday party and the inability to get a test when a worried parent hears Johnny sneeze in the middle of the night, is what my WhatsApp friends groups are very exercised about.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't it possible to take a freeze frame of anyone to make them look unwell?
    On the available evidence, it seems very difficult to take a freeze frame of BJ looking anything like well.
    This one has clearly been chosen to make him look as ill as possible. It even looks as though it has been lightened too, compared to others here.
    More saturation doesn't improve it.

    image
    But it's a very specific freeze frame, isn't it?
  • moonshine said:

    Intriguing to me how wound up / excited this forum is about this bill, on most of the tabloids’ websites it’s hard to find mention of the story. It’s without doubt Covid and the Rule of 6 that is upsetting people in the real world, when I chat to cross sections of the public (although Casino is right, those on the south coast have the Dover crossings a close second). Arguing the tealeaves on this bill is for the obsessives. Either it’ll be No Deal which Boris won’t mind politically at all, or a deal he will inevitably champion from the rooftop, which will be fine too. Not much to gain vote wise from today’s point scoring.

    And not that I’m his biggest fan on his handling of covid but the PM is getting a get out of jail free card on the defining issue of the day of covid, with now not one but two major pharmas likely to announce a vaccine within 6 weeks. One thing the Uk has done right is massive upfront payments to secure a broad mix of vaccines early.

    So both issues will be over as a story comfortably by next summer. Just in time for Scottish Indie to rear its head with the Scottish elections....

    A pre election exit date will I think be determined by health or personal factors, rather than politics. Shaky ground to bet on I would suggest but you guys are the experts so knock yourselves out.

    And the Shetlands, Orkney and Western Islands seeking Independence from Scotland as widely publicised this week
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A leader who won a majority of 80 is preferable to a leader who lost a general election on any definition
    You need to open your eyes to what is happening in front of you
    Labour want rid of Boris as they fear him, just as the Tories feared Blair, just as Labour feared Thatcher.

    You are falling into their trap, last time the Chancellor replaced the PM in 2007 he lost the 2010 election, the time before that he scraped a win in 1992 then was trounced in 1997
    The conservatives are growing in number who want him to stand down

    He is not well and today was so embarrassing and avoidable

    Breaking an international treaty is a catastrophic error of judgement by Boris or Cummings or both

    Time for them both to leave
    Treaties should not be considered sacrosanct.

    There's a lot we could and should sort out by breaking a couple more treaties.
    We agree on many things but not this
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited September 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    If I was the PM I might have something better to do than to listen to Blackford too.
    It's basic manners. PMs usually sit and listen to the leaders of the opposition parties at least. It shows his typical disrespect for Parliament I'm afraid. When May was in trouble she sat in the HoC for hours responding to questions and points. She has more guts than Johnson.
    She has more of every admirable quality than this contemptible individual. That the Tory Party and the British public think otherwise speaks volumes about both.
This discussion has been closed.