We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK
Only a numpty would use the topline positive test figures as a way to assess prevalence.
FPT - Doesn't make sense. Both comments are valid - because Scotland is within and connected to a wider pool of pox infestation as well as of endogenous pox, and gmt policy has to respond to both. Also cos the testing problem is UK wide, so that stats problem is too [edit: simply on a descriptive level, and because one can't therefore reliably subdivide the data. ,I asusme.].
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".
So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.
Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
If an election forecaster predicted the probability of Mr A winning with 55% but Mr B won with 280 EC Votes would you still say that forecaster "is miles out"? If not where is your cut of to claim that a forecatser "is miles out"?
That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...
The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
This is the company that is currently owned by the Japanese?
It was started in the UK as part of the "Silicon Fens" network of expertise, before being bought in the first wave of loss of its expertise. As the government will not intervene, the jobs and expertise will gradually move away ; the story of endless parts of our critical national infrastructure since the early 1980's, when many Tories embraced the free-market even more radically and fervently than many Reaganites, who made sure to keep critical national strategic assets and companies intact.
That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...
The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
True, but it would hardly be the first time that a big acquisition has been an exercise in value destruction.
That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...
The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
True, but it would hardly be the first time that a big acquisition has been an exercise in value destruction.
No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!
No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!
Yes, that was a classic. HP's purchase of Autonomy was another fine specimen, but there have been lots. Marconi's acquisition of FORE Systems, and of course RBS's of ABN Amro, were also memorable.
Remember Nabavi's number one rule of investment, painfully learnt: if you ever have doubts about a large acquisition made by a company you have shares in, don't pussy-foot around: sell, sell , sell.
Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!
Yes, that was a classic.
Honestly with that one I think the shareholders have a fair shot at compensation from whoever did the due diligence on the merger, it was fairly obvious from the start that the savings were going to be non-existent and there would be a massive erosion of the client base due to crossover in capital pools between the companies and clients needing to hedge their money properly. I don't know what possessed them to pursue it.
Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
I had an appointment in Southampton tomorrow. Cancelled due to suspected Covid.
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".
So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.
Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
If an election forecaster predicted the probability of Mr A winning with 55% but Mr B won with 280 EC Votes would you still say that forecaster "is miles out"? If not where is your cut of to claim that a forecatser "is miles out"?
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so it carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
Why would it need an exemption?
The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.
It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
That labelling someone's wandering around with will lose its stick soon.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
The figure I'm most interested in with the testing data is the positivity rate.
If that goes up then its a sign of the virus getting out of control again. If that goes down then we're either getting the virus under control or testing the wrong people.
Given that the capacity issues seem to be related to hundreds wanting tests at once due to back to school issues I wonder if we could see both factors counteracting each other?
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
Why would it need an exemption?
The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.
It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
You are Dido Harding, and I claim my £5.
So what do you think about the UK doing 226,000 tests?
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
Why would it need an exemption?
The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.
It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
Better.
More prosaic, no flair, but the point was well made.
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
You are Dido Harding, and I claim my £5.
So what do you think about the UK doing 226,000 tests?
Thats more than any other European Country
Quite frankly, and forgive me for being predictable, based on recent history I genuinely do not believe the headline figure stats.
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
Wouldn't be a good move if so, because blood sports are unpopular even among a lot of the new tory base, and partially but not completely on class grounds, too.
Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?
All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.
I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
No, it doesn't.
Western products which contain ARM IP almost certainly do because they contain other IP, but ARM continues to license in China.
Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?
All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
I'm already missing the "Winning Here!" rosettes for each political party.
Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?
All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
"All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull."
Are you still talking about the new layout or switched to the LotO?
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Exactly, most grouse beaters are working class as are large numbers of those who go fishing.
In any case organised football is exempt from the group of six anyway too
It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
Wouldn't be a good move if so, because blood sports are unpopular even among a lot of the new tory base, and partially but not completely on class grounds, too.
I can’t remember such a “tomorrow’s chip paper” argument as this one over the Internal Markets Bill. It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers. He’d no doubt be delighted to get kicked out on a “point of principle”, His political career having pretty much exhausted its usefulness to him.
I follow politics closer than most and I can’t even remember what the rebellion was over this time last year that saw all those MPs expelled. Those considering the same now would do well to consider what pathetic figures the likes of Stewart, Gauke and Greening now cut, sniping on Twitter to try and preserve some semblance of relevance. Or Hammond, tarting himself like Blair. Major, May and Blair are hardly disinterested parties either.
It’s all just the rough and tumble of dealing with the EU. I’m in uproar over the government’s Rule of Six and snitching agenda, necessitated only by how ineptly it’s run and communicated the covid response. But I’m giving three cheers that they’re giving a robust response to the EU and are prepared to break a few eggs.
What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.
What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.
All organised outdoor sports are already exempt from the rule of 6
That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
No, it doesn't.
Western products which contain ARM IP almost certainly do because they contain other IP, but ARM continues to license in China.
It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.
Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?
All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
Not if you spill red wine on it. Good job SeanT's not around any more.
It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.
Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
I had a very working class friend who enjoyed his pigeon shooting - I used to take his retriever out hunting (for fossils, so he was pretty useless with me, but he was a trained gundog all right).
It's the differential treatment with other sports which might grate with the public. As do the organised bloodsports per se. It's one thing to harvest/control potential vermin such as deer and partridge, and eat the results, but a couple of guns walking over the fields wouildn't come under the restrictions anyway.
It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.
Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls
Scotland test data has been issued incomplete - only 70 postiive test reported so far today compared to 244 yesterday. Suggestion it is back log in data from the UK Regional Test Centres.
Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.
By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.
What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.
All organised outdoor sports are already exempt from the rule of 6
I suspect it needed to be specified because all the loony tune antis would be wasting police time trying to get them to stop said activities for purely small minded malicious reasons. Good governance with common sense applied for once
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.
I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth... The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
I used to work with some very active "shooting and fishing" types. My colleague used to describe shooting as "the humane harvesting of free range, organic produce"
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
I had a very working class friend who enjoyed his pigeon shooting - I used to take his retriever out hunting (for fossils, so he was pretty useless with me, but he was a trained gundog all right).
It's the differential treatment with other sports which might grate with the public. As do the organised bloodsports per se. It's one thing to harvest/control potential vermin such as deer and partridge, and eat the results, but a couple of guns walking over the fields wouildn't come under the restrictions anyway.
There is no differential treatment, all organised outdoor sports are included.
Are partridge vermin? They may eat a bit of corn, but they wouldn't be there in the numbers for anyone to notice if they weren't bred and put out to be shot, I don't think.
It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.
Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls
Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.
Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.
Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.
Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC
I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.
Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.
I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.
I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth... The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
It is an organised sport.
Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.
I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth... The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
Calling bullshit because it offends your small minded prejudice?
Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.
By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.
If you assign Arizona to the Democrats it gives 96+% chance for them to win. Az Dem, Fl GOP is 20% chance for Trump.
Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.
By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.
Noted with thanks, Richard.
I can cope with the sloppy numbers on RCP but I can't stand the lazy way every article in favor of one side is accompanied by another in favor of the opposite view. If they did weather forecasts I guess they would always give you two - one which says it's going to rain and another saying it isn't.
I used to work with some very active "shooting and fishing" types. My colleague used to describe shooting as "the humane harvesting of free range, organic produce"
Sadly not true with modern pheasant shooting, they are high-velocity battery chickens.
Comments
https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21
Not even a fresh coat, with the linkage to Soros its back to standard anti-semitic conspiracy theories
If not where is your cut of to claim that a forecatser "is miles out"?
Remember Nabavi's number one rule of investment, painfully learnt: if you ever have doubts about a large acquisition made by a company you have shares in, don't pussy-foot around: sell, sell , sell.
https://youtu.be/15WwP_PQPk0
Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2016 actual EC result
Trump 304
Clinton 227
The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.
It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
That labelling someone's wandering around with will lose its stick soon.
Nick Clegg? do something.
As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1305506504318087168
If that goes up then its a sign of the virus getting out of control again.
If that goes down then we're either getting the virus under control or testing the wrong people.
Given that the capacity issues seem to be related to hundreds wanting tests at once due to back to school issues I wonder if we could see both factors counteracting each other?
Thats more than any other European Country
More prosaic, no flair, but the point was well made.
It's become very sloppy recently – just misses data, regardless of whether one pays any heed to its forecasts!
I make no point about its forecasts or indeed those of its competitors.
Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?
All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
http://www.shootingfacts.co.uk/pdf/The-Value-of-Shooting-2014.pdf
Adds £2bn to the UK economy.
I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
Western products which contain ARM IP almost certainly do because they contain other IP, but ARM continues to license in China.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200871.shtml
Are you still talking about the new layout or switched to the LotO?
In any case organised football is exempt from the group of six anyway too
I follow politics closer than most and I can’t even remember what the rebellion was over this time last year that saw all those MPs expelled. Those considering the same now would do well to consider what pathetic figures the likes of Stewart, Gauke and Greening now cut, sniping on Twitter to try and preserve some semblance of relevance. Or Hammond, tarting himself like Blair. Major, May and Blair are hardly disinterested parties either.
It’s all just the rough and tumble of dealing with the EU. I’m in uproar over the government’s Rule of Six and snitching agenda, necessitated only by how ineptly it’s run and communicated the covid response. But I’m giving three cheers that they’re giving a robust response to the EU and are prepared to break a few eggs.
https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1305498040514510848?s=20
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
Good job SeanT's not around any more.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/revealed-the-british-mps-who-earned-more-than-7m-outside-of-parliament-in-2014-10066802.html
It's the differential treatment with other sports which might grate with the public. As do the organised bloodsports per se. It's one thing to harvest/control potential vermin such as deer and partridge, and eat the results, but a couple of guns walking over the fields wouildn't come under the restrictions anyway.
This is rather good. It's a site which takes the Economist election model, and allows you to see how the probabilities change in various scenarios.
https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/
For example:
Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.
By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.
The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
Are partridge vermin? They may eat a bit of corn, but they wouldn't be there in the numbers for anyone to notice if they weren't bred and put out to be shot, I don't think.
2019 data not yet available
file:///home/chronos/u-a4ac0077cff3dec12ab65f91af1476ea4829487c/MyFiles/Downloads/CBP-7529.pdf (p35)
Az Dem, Fl GOP is 20% chance for Trump.
I can cope with the sloppy numbers on RCP but I can't stand the lazy way every article in favor of one side is accompanied by another in favor of the opposite view. If they did weather forecasts I guess they would always give you two - one which says it's going to rain and another saying it isn't.