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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited September 2020 in General
imageOn the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – politicalbetting.com

We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Mike_SmithsonMike_Smithson Posts: 13
    First
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Second premier.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    third
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Third like the lib dems on a good day
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

    Life on Venus. Praps.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    Floater said:

    Third like the lib dems on a good day

    An inability to count/post quickly enough does not help!!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    The LDs on a not so good day!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    Is the site being reconstructed?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    The stability of the market is curious. Very little seems to have changed it. Trump got a smallish boost from his Convention, Biden not even that. From this side of the pond things can be misleading but I don't get the impression that there is anything like the normal level of politicking going on. There are very few undecideds and an impression that there is not much more to say.

    The longer things stay the same surely the better for Biden. A campaign where Trump finds it harder to rile up his supporters and Biden has to do less than would normally be expected is surely favourable to Biden.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    ClippP said:

    Is the site being reconstructed?

    #This town, is getting like a ghost town.#
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    DavidL said:

    #This town, is getting like a ghost town.#

    I believe it's "coming"...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited September 2020
    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    But does not need the last three of those, so what does that 3.7% actually mean ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    The stability of the market is curious. Very little seems to have changed it. Trump got a smallish boost from his Convention, Biden not even that. From this side of the pond things can be misleading but I don't get the impression that there is anything like the normal level of politicking going on. There are very few undecideds and an impression that there is not much more to say.

    The longer things stay the same surely the better for Biden. A campaign where Trump finds it harder to rile up his supporters and Biden has to do less than would normally be expected is surely favourable to Biden.

    Indeed.

    Trump being where is is in the market is as inexplicable as past things like Leadsom in the Tory leadership market.

    Trump can win, but he essentially needs to throw three sixes in a row to do so.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

    . . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1305485157508538370
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

    . . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?

    Oops, I replied on the old thread. I think ping pong only stops when both houses agree to the text without amendments. Any amendment, it gets sent back. So in your example it would not return to the Lords if it wasn't amended further.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
    Funny guy.

    :smile:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

    https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

    . . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?

    Oops, I replied on the old thread. I think ping pong only stops when both houses agree to the text without amendments. Any amendment, it gets sent back. So in your example it would not return to the Lords if it wasn't amended further.
    Thanks. So even if the Government were willing to accept the Neill amendment, it might be best tactically to not accept it just yet and to do so later instead? Because if the Government were to accept it immediately no doubt the Lords would amend something else too.

    Personally while I like the Bill as it is and hope it goes through, I think the Neill amendment is a good one. If it is that and no further as amendments go I'd be happy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited September 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    My 'as we speak' prediction is Biden to hold the Clinton states and add -

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona. Plus 2 of Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa.

    This would map to an EC margin in the 125/150 range. I'm long of Biden EC supremacy at 28 so this result would be most satisfactory for me.

    I also have a mitigator fixed odds bet on Trump to hold Florida at 2.3.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144

    He exempts Boris and most Tories on that post but Farage says he will stand against any MPs who vote against the government on the internal markets bill tonight it seems, including Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1305481365870309378?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    But does not need the last three of those, so what does that 3.7% actually mean ?
    Approximately Pennsylvania or Michigan
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

    https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

    There was an outcry, because Patel suggested it. :D
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486443876413440

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486795438723075

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305487192056356864
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1305487262873014272
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    What time is the vote?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

    https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

    There was an outcry, because Patel suggested it. :D
    Indeed. Grimes is right, just as Twitter is not Britain, then backbencher Patel is not the United Kingdom.

    If the UK had suggested that then the outcry would have been dialled up past 11.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144

    He exempts Boris and most Tories on that post but Farage says he will stand against any MPs who vote against the government on the internal markets bill tonight it seems, including Tories
    Given the next GE is years away this threat is just more desperation for Farage to get back in the news .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
    Stocky.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
    Stocky.
    I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    Is somebody saying that our Sue has been sacrificed to the snake of wokeness?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited September 2020
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20


    Ouch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
    Stocky.
    I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.
    I think people quite liked it but do not wish to admit it. Bit like with those shy Trumpers.

    And you did get a smiley face from Topping. Which is unusual.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1305478790609543169?s=20
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited September 2020
    Arizona is looking strong for Biden. It's already shifted to easier than North Carolina and Florida in Nate's snake, wonder if it will slide past PA to set up the 269-269 tie at it's head.
    According to 538 is that is a sub 1% chance so the 66-1 shouldn't be taken.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Anabobazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20


    Ouch.
    They are a little underweight Trump 2016 voters in the sample and MASSIVELY underweight High School or less education (sample is 19% HS or less, Arizona is actually 35% HS or less).

    So the true scores are almost certainly closer than that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Given the 538 average was far out in 2016 on Michigan and incorrectly said Hillary was likely to win the state I will stick with RCP thanks given it is closer, however regardless as I said Michigan or Pennsylvania are the key swing states Biden must win
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    I assume RCP is in financial trouble. As you say, far from comprehensive, plus it's clunky, hasn't had a style update for ages, and pushes paid content aggressively.

    I doubt it's deliberate exclusion of material - just sloppy from a dying website.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    IshmaelZ said:

    http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

    Life on Venus. Praps.

    Not even the biggest discovery of the day, there's also tentative evidence we're all living in a computer simulation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    MaxPB said:

    The telegraph have a piece on France essentially saying it's a good example to be followed. I do wonder what they'll say when the inevitable second national lockdown comes for France and destroys whatever they've recovered since May. The press reporting on this stuff is absolutely atrocious and frankly irresponsible.

    France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

    https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

    I am sure he is the new, smart face of the right. He is the best they have.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486443876413440

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486795438723075

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305487192056356864

    Simple! All the car workers could be retrained to make cheese for Japan.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    DavidL said:

    France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.

    How many were processed, and how many were thrown away
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

    Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
    56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
    44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
    You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic.

    I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

    I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

    I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

    Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

    I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

    Not as good as his brother Hugh though.
    Stocky.
    I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.
    I think people quite liked it but do not wish to admit it. Bit like with those shy Trumpers.

    And you did get a smiley face from Topping. Which is unusual.
    :neutral:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    You mean that Faisal Islam doesn't know what he is talking about?

    I am shocked, shocked at that new information.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    brokenwheel said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

    Life on Venus. Praps.

    Not even the biggest discovery of the day, there's also tentative evidence we're all living in a computer simulation.
    So where is Trinity? I mean, if I am going to have to live in a simulation there should be some compensations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Alistair said:

    The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
    56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
    44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
    You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.

    Well they were the only pollster who correctly had Trump winning Michigan in 2016
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
    56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
    44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
    You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.

    Well they were the only pollster who correctly had Trump winning Michigan in 2016
    I think we all pick holes in the points we don't like.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    You mean that Faisal Islam doesn't know what he is talking about?

    I am shocked, shocked at that new information.
    I'd be more worried if it was Hermann Hauser who didn't know what he's talking about.

    (Although I did once do a technical evaluation of one of his companies on behalf of a client, and found that it was truly, truly awful).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

    Euro clearing was the issue in one of the biggest cases ever brought to the ECJ which the UK won ! But of course the right wing press never mention that . Their paranoia as with most things Brexit related is based on a tissue of lies .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited September 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
    The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
    The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
    Yes, exactly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'd be more worried if it was Hermann Hauser who didn't know what he's talking about.

    (Although I did once do a technical evaluation of one of his companies on behalf of a client, and found that it was truly, truly awful).

    This is what the letter says

    This puts Britain in the invidious position that the decision about who Arm is allowed to sell to will be made in the White House and not in Downing Street. Sovereignty used to be mainly a geographic issue, but now economic sovereignty is equally important. Surrendering UK’s most powerful trade weapon to the US is making Britain a US vassal state.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    edited September 2020
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

    Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?
    Is that one of them cards which the EU holds and we don't?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

    That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

    In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

    But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    ...and ITAR (and other export controls on tech) are very, very seriously enforced by the US. One of the areas of total unanimity in politics there. Even breath hard on the rules, and straight to Club Fed.

    This reminds me of the alleged space investment expert, I met, who thought Elon Musk was stupid for not outsourcing the construction of his rockets to China....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.

    How many were processed, and how many were thrown away
    The recorded UK figure is for those that are processed. There seems to be about another 3-4% that for some reason aren't, I would guess because the sample has not maintained integrity for some reason, but these are not included in the government figures.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    On topic.

    https://twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

    That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

    In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

    But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.
    RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

    Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?
    I called it last week.

    I think it won't be long before the Debt Management Office starts having issues/reassure investors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic.

    Twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256

    "Plus, iPhones aren’t as popular in Latin America — meaning iMessage chats are not an option for many."

    They have their heads screwed on!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic.

    Twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256

    "Plus, iPhones aren’t as popular in Latin America — meaning iMessage chats are not an option for many."

    They have their heads screwed on!
    You put sultanas on your pizzas don't you?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700
    Berlusconi has left hospital.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

    That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

    In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

    But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.
    RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time
    Your poll aggregator would only have Trafalgar, HYUFD!

    A poll aggregator website should have comprehensive polls. If they choose to exclude polls from pollsters A, B and C, they should say - "this is what this poll says, but we disagree with the methodology for this reason, so aren't including".

    The fact is that RCP don't do that - their failure to be comprehensive is just symptomatic of a website dying on its arse. Indeed, you can see from Alexa rankings it's been on the slide. For you to attribute it to their cleverly selecting the best polls is silly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305497045176852485

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305497079112925187
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Malmesbury said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    ...and ITAR (and other export controls on tech) are very, very seriously enforced by the US. One of the areas of total unanimity in politics there. Even breath hard on the rules, and straight to Club Fed.

    This reminds me of the alleged space investment expert, I met, who thought Elon Musk was stupid for not outsourcing the construction of his rockets to China....
    Yep. And I think the UK explicitly signs up to the US rules on this anyway.

    As Standard Chartered and HSBC have found, the US rules the roost. If they don't want you to sell to Iran, or China, then you don't sell to Iran or China, irrespective of whether the UK or EU would let you. The idea that ARM, with such important US operations and a huge US customer base, could ignore this, whoever owned it, is cloud-cuckoo-land.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/grahamogilvy/status/1305479021791195136
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1305496599020396544?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1305467814195662848?s=20

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1304721092838334465?s=20
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

    That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

    In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

    But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.
    In terms of the relative lean of the States I would choose 538 every time, as they do adjust for more things including pollsters' own leans, so you are getting a fairer comparison between states. 538 makes Penn the weakest link out of the states Biden probably needs (or in other words the most likely tipping point state), but differs from RCP in that it shows Michigan as more Biden leaning than Penn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
    Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    .
    CarlottaVance said:

    We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1305467814195662848?s=20

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1304721092838334465?s=20

    Only a numpty would use the topline positive test figures as a way to assess prevalence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
    Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?
    'To the full' presumably means all three at the same time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305498648428580864
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
    Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?
    Perhaps his glorious leader can give advice on all three based on his last Mcstaycation?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

    That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

    In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

    But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.
    RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time
    Your poll aggregator would only have Trafalgar, HYUFD!

    A poll aggregator website should have comprehensive polls. If they choose to exclude polls from pollsters A, B and C, they should say - "this is what this poll says, but we disagree with the methodology for this reason, so aren't including".

    The fact is that RCP don't do that - their failure to be comprehensive is just symptomatic of a website dying on its arse. Indeed, you can see from Alexa rankings it's been on the slide. For you to attribute it to their cleverly selecting the best polls is silly.
    538 had an appalling 2016, RCP had a not great 2016 but still better than 538, Trafalgar Group were closest in 2016.

    Trump is again on the ballot as he was in 2016 so I will stick with RCP and above all Trafalgar
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kick him out.

    https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
    Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?
    'To the full' presumably means all three at the same time.
    I think 'beagling' is the U version.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305498648428580864

    This is the company that is currently owned by the Japanese?
This discussion has been closed.