On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

System

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – politicalbetting.com

We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been.

Read the full story here

Mike_Smithson

First

IshmaelZ

Second premier.

squareroot2

third

Floater

Third like the lib dems on a good day

IshmaelZ

http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

Life on Venus. Praps.

squareroot2

Floater said:

Third like the lib dems on a good day

An inability to count/post quickly enough does not help!!

felix

The LDs on a not so good day!

ClippP

Is the site being reconstructed?

DavidL

The stability of the market is curious. Very little seems to have changed it. Trump got a smallish boost from his Convention, Biden not even that. From this side of the pond things can be misleading but I don't get the impression that there is anything like the normal level of politicking going on. There are very few undecideds and an impression that there is not much more to say.

The longer things stay the same surely the better for Biden. A campaign where Trump finds it harder to rile up his supporters and Biden has to do less than would normally be expected is surely favourable to Biden.

DavidL

ClippP said:

Is the site being reconstructed?

#This town, is getting like a ghost town.#

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

#This town, is getting like a ghost town.#

I believe it's "coming"...

HYUFD

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

TOPPING

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

Nigelb

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

But does not need the last three of those, so what does that 3.7% actually mean ?

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

The stability of the market is curious. Very little seems to have changed it. Trump got a smallish boost from his Convention, Biden not even that. From this side of the pond things can be misleading but I don't get the impression that there is anything like the normal level of politicking going on. There are very few undecideds and an impression that there is not much more to say.

The longer things stay the same surely the better for Biden. A campaign where Trump finds it harder to rile up his supporters and Biden has to do less than would normally be expected is surely favourable to Biden.

Indeed.

Trump being where is is in the market is as inexplicable as past things like Leadsom in the Tory leadership market.

Trump can win, but he essentially needs to throw three sixes in a row to do so.

Stocky

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832

Philip_Thompson

FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

. . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1305485157508538370

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

RobD

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

. . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?

Oops, I replied on the old thread. I think ping pong only stops when both houses agree to the text without amendments. Any amendment, it gets sent back. So in your example it would not return to the Lords if it wasn't amended further.

TOPPING

Stocky said:

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Funny guy.

Theuniondivvie

Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

Philip_Thompson

RobD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT A question for Parliamentary experts . . . lets say hypothetically that the Commons sends through the Bill unamended to the Lords (ie they reject the Neill amendment), but then the Lords were to amend the bill by adding the Neill amendment in (or something very like it) and send it back to the Commons for consideration like that . . .

. . . then could the Government/Commons simply accept the amendment at that point and the Lords have already now agreed so it then goes to Royal Assent? Or if the Commons accepts it do the Lords then have to vote again prior to Royal Assent?

Oops, I replied on the old thread. I think ping pong only stops when both houses agree to the text without amendments. Any amendment, it gets sent back. So in your example it would not return to the Lords if it wasn't amended further.

Thanks. So even if the Government were willing to accept the Neill amendment, it might be best tactically to not accept it just yet and to do so later instead? Because if the Government were to accept it immediately no doubt the Lords would amend something else too.

Personally while I like the Bill as it is and hope it goes through, I think the Neill amendment is a good one. If it is that and no further as amendments go I'd be happy.

kinabalu

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

My 'as we speak' prediction is Biden to hold the Clinton states and add -

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona. Plus 2 of Florida, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa.

This would map to an EC margin in the 125/150 range. I'm long of Biden EC supremacy at 28 so this result would be most satisfactory for me.

I also have a mitigator fixed odds bet on Trump to hold Florida at 2.3.

HYUFD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144

He exempts Boris and most Tories on that post but Farage says he will stand against any MPs who vote against the government on the internal markets bill tonight it seems, including Tories

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1305481365870309378?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20

HYUFD

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

But does not need the last three of those, so what does that 3.7% actually mean ?

Approximately Pennsylvania or Michigan

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

There was an outcry, because Patel suggested it.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486443876413440

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486795438723075

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305487192056356864

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1305487262873014272

Stocky

What time is the vote?

Philip_Thompson

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

There was an outcry, because Patel suggested it.

Indeed. Grimes is right, just as Twitter is not Britain, then backbencher Patel is not the United Kingdom.

If the UK had suggested that then the outcry would have been dialled up past 11.

MaxPB

The telegraph have a piece on France essentially saying it's a good example to be followed. I do wonder what they'll say when the inevitable second national lockdown comes for France and destroys whatever they've recovered since May. The press reporting on this stuff is absolutely atrocious and frankly irresponsible.

nico679

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1305484616216838144

He exempts Boris and most Tories on that post but Farage says he will stand against any MPs who vote against the government on the internal markets bill tonight it seems, including Tories

Given the next GE is years away this threat is just more desperation for Farage to get back in the news .

kinabalu

Stocky said:

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Stocky.

Stocky

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Stocky.

I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.

Wulfrun_Phil

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

kinabalu

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

Is somebody saying that our Sue has been sacrificed to the snake of wokeness?

Anabobazina

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

Anabobazina

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20

Ouch.

kinabalu

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Stocky.

I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.

I think people quite liked it but do not wish to admit it. Bit like with those shy Trumpers.

And you did get a smiley face from Topping. Which is unusual.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1305478790609543169?s=20

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

Pulpstar

Arizona is looking strong for Biden. It's already shifted to easier than North Carolina and Florida in Nate's snake, wonder if it will slide past PA to set up the 269-269 tie at it's head.
According to 538 is that is a sub 1% chance so the 66-1 shouldn't be taken.

Alistair

Anabobazina said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1305487334759165952?s=20

Ouch.

They are a little underweight Trump 2016 voters in the sample and MASSIVELY underweight High School or less education (sample is 19% HS or less, Arizona is actually 35% HS or less).

So the true scores are almost certainly closer than that.

HYUFD

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Given the 538 average was far out in 2016 on Michigan and incorrectly said Hillary was likely to win the state I will stick with RCP thanks given it is closer, however regardless as I said Michigan or Pennsylvania are the key swing states Biden must win

SirNorfolkPassmore

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

I assume RCP is in financial trouble. As you say, far from comprehensive, plus it's clunky, hasn't had a style update for ages, and pushes paid content aggressively.

I doubt it's deliberate exclusion of material - just sloppy from a dying website.

HYUFD

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

DavidL

MaxPB said:

The telegraph have a piece on France essentially saying it's a good example to be followed. I do wonder what they'll say when the inevitable second national lockdown comes for France and destroys whatever they've recovered since May. The press reporting on this stuff is absolutely atrocious and frankly irresponsible.

France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.

brokenwheel

IshmaelZ said:

http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

Life on Venus. Praps.

Not even the biggest discovery of the day, there's also tentative evidence we're all living in a computer simulation.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

ClippP

Theuniondivvie said:

Wasn't someone on here touting airhead Grimes as the new, smart face of the right?

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1305484299861405697?s=20

I am sure he is the new, smart face of the right. He is the best they have.

Mexicanpete

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486443876413440

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305486795438723075

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305487192056356864

Simple! All the car workers could be retrained to make cheese for Japan.

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.

How many were processed, and how many were thrown away

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?

Alistair

The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

TOPPING said:

On topic.

I think Jermaine Jenas is an excellent summariser - always pertinent and incisive comments.

I never watch Question of Sport so cannot say whether he will thrive there but he is certainly a bright guy and should bring something to any endeavour.

I would have preferred the Beeb to bin its white stars, however, at perhaps a less sensitive time although I appreciate that there is never a good time to give in to popular demand, the series probably did need a refresh, and the fact that there hasn't apparently been enough diversity won't go away without change.

Edit: that was the topic wasn't it?

I agree, I rate Jermaine Jenas highly.

Not as good as his brother Hugh though.

Stocky.

I thought that was a good one. But not even one "like". I feel miffed to be honest. You lot are hard to please.

I think people quite liked it but do not wish to admit it. Bit like with those shy Trumpers.

And you did get a smiley face from Topping. Which is unusual.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

You mean that Faisal Islam doesn't know what he is talking about?

I am shocked, shocked at that new information.

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

DavidL

brokenwheel said:

IshmaelZ said:

http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus---an-indicator-of-possible-life.html

Life on Venus. Praps.

Not even the biggest discovery of the day, there's also tentative evidence we're all living in a computer simulation.

So where is Trinity? I mean, if I am going to have to live in a simulation there should be some compensations.

HYUFD

Alistair said:

The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.

Well they were the only pollster who correctly had Trump winning Michigan in 2016

MrEd

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

The thing I like about the Trafalgar polling in 2016 is the way they managed to find the most incredibly Trump positive 18-25 year old sample in America
56/37 in Trump's favour in Michigan
44/33 in Trump's favour in Colorado
You know, really solid believable numbers that aligned with reality.

Well they were the only pollster who correctly had Trump winning Michigan in 2016

I think we all pick holes in the points we don't like.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

You mean that Faisal Islam doesn't know what he is talking about?

I am shocked, shocked at that new information.

I'd be more worried if it was Hermann Hauser who didn't know what he's talking about.

(Although I did once do a technical evaluation of one of his companies on behalf of a client, and found that it was truly, truly awful).

nico679

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

Euro clearing was the issue in one of the biggest cases ever brought to the ECJ which the UK won ! But of course the right wing press never mention that . Their paranoia as with most things Brexit related is based on a tissue of lies .

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.

The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.

The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.

Yes, exactly.

Scott_xP

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'd be more worried if it was Hermann Hauser who didn't know what he's talking about.

(Although I did once do a technical evaluation of one of his companies on behalf of a client, and found that it was truly, truly awful).

This is what the letter says

This puts Britain in the invidious position that the decision about who Arm is allowed to sell to will be made in the White House and not in Downing Street. Sovereignty used to be mainly a geographic issue, but now economic sovereignty is equally important. Surrendering UK’s most powerful trade weapon to the US is making Britain a US vassal state.

Theuniondivvie

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?

Is that one of them cards which the EU holds and we don't?

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.

Malmesbury

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

...and ITAR (and other export controls on tech) are very, very seriously enforced by the US. One of the areas of total unanimity in politics there. Even breath hard on the rules, and straight to Club Fed.

This reminds me of the alleged space investment expert, I met, who thought Elon Musk was stupid for not outsourcing the construction of his rockets to China....

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

France has currently recorded exactly 10m tests. The UK is very close to 20m. But our testing system is rubbish. Apparently.

How many were processed, and how many were thrown away

The recorded UK figure is for those that are processed. There seems to be about another 3-4% that for some reason aren't, I would guess because the sample has not maintained integrity for some reason, but these are not included in the government figures.

TheScreamingEagles

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

TheScreamingEagles

On topic.

https://twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.

RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1305483278107979787

Well there's a surprise. Which super-forecaster could possibly have predicted that?

I called it last week.

I think it won't be long before the Debt Management Office starts having issues/reassure investors.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256

"Plus, iPhones aren’t as popular in Latin America — meaning iMessage chats are not an option for many."

They have their heads screwed on!

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Twitter.com/sabrod123/status/1305484204503904256

"Plus, iPhones aren’t as popular in Latin America — meaning iMessage chats are not an option for many."

They have their heads screwed on!

You put sultanas on your pizzas don't you?

williamglenn

Berlusconi has left hospital.

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.

RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time

Your poll aggregator would only have Trafalgar, HYUFD!

A poll aggregator website should have comprehensive polls. If they choose to exclude polls from pollsters A, B and C, they should say - "this is what this poll says, but we disagree with the methodology for this reason, so aren't including".

The fact is that RCP don't do that - their failure to be comprehensive is just symptomatic of a website dying on its arse. Indeed, you can see from Alexa rankings it's been on the slide. For you to attribute it to their cleverly selecting the best polls is silly.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305497045176852485

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305497079112925187

Richard_Nabavi

Malmesbury said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305484981850996736

That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.

...and ITAR (and other export controls on tech) are very, very seriously enforced by the US. One of the areas of total unanimity in politics there. Even breath hard on the rules, and straight to Club Fed.

This reminds me of the alleged space investment expert, I met, who thought Elon Musk was stupid for not outsourcing the construction of his rockets to China....

Yep. And I think the UK explicitly signs up to the US rules on this anyway.

As Standard Chartered and HSBC have found, the US rules the roost. If they don't want you to sell to Iran, or China, then you don't sell to Iran or China, irrespective of whether the UK or EU would let you. The idea that ARM, with such important US operations and a huge US customer base, could ignore this, whoever owned it, is cloud-cuckoo-land.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/grahamogilvy/status/1305479021791195136

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1305496599020396544?s=20

CarlottaVance

We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1305467814195662848?s=20

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1304721092838334465?s=20

SirNorfolkPassmore

williamglenn said:

Berlusconi has left hospital.

Good news for Italian nurses.

kamski

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.

In terms of the relative lean of the States I would choose 538 every time, as they do adjust for more things including pollsters' own leans, so you are getting a fairer comparison between states. 538 makes Penn the weakest link out of the states Biden probably needs (or in other words the most likely tipping point state), but differs from RCP in that it shows Michigan as more Biden leaning than Penn.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.

Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?

RobD

.

CarlottaVance said:

We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1305467814195662848?s=20

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1304721092838334465?s=20

Only a numpty would use the topline positive test figures as a way to assess prevalence.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.

Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?

'To the full' presumably means all three at the same time.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305498648428580864

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.

Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?

Perhaps his glorious leader can give advice on all three based on his last Mcstaycation?

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.

Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.

538 final 2016 forcecast

Clinton 48.5%
Trump 44.9%

EC

Clinton 302
Trump 235
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

RCP final 2016 forecast

Clinton 46.8%
Trump 43.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

EC

Clinton 272
Trump 266
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538

Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.

Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver

Are you saying RCP is comprehensive in its coverage of polls?

That's rather crucial when you're going for a full picture on recent polls, and it's undeniable RCP has got very sloppy.

In terms of analysis, I agree Nate Silver and pals are plainly Democrat-leaning in personal inclinations, and there's a fair amount I don't agree with.

But I go to 538 for polls news as they actually have it, whereas RCP are now very, very patchy and/or delayed.

RCP clearly selected more of the right polls in 2016, given most polls called the election wrong, especially in the MidWest, there is no reason including all polls again would be any better this time

Your poll aggregator would only have Trafalgar, HYUFD!

A poll aggregator website should have comprehensive polls. If they choose to exclude polls from pollsters A, B and C, they should say - "this is what this poll says, but we disagree with the methodology for this reason, so aren't including".

The fact is that RCP don't do that - their failure to be comprehensive is just symptomatic of a website dying on its arse. Indeed, you can see from Alexa rankings it's been on the slide. For you to attribute it to their cleverly selecting the best polls is silly.

538 had an appalling 2016, RCP had a not great 2016 but still better than 538, Trafalgar Group were closest in 2016.

Trump is again on the ballot as he was in 2016 so I will stick with RCP and above all Trafalgar

Carnyx

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Kick him out.

https://twitter.com/thecourieruk/status/1305479177970229249

Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.

Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?

'To the full' presumably means all three at the same time.

I think 'beagling' is the U version.

RobD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1305498648428580864

This is the company that is currently owned by the Japanese?