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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117
    edited September 2020
    RobD said:

    .

    We've now got the "Reverse Andy Murray" in COVID - when cases are low, or declining, they are in Scotland, when they are high or rising they are in the UK

    https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1305467814195662848?s=20

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1304721092838334465?s=20

    Only a numpty would use the topline positive test figures as a way to assess prevalence.
    FPT - Doesn't make sense. Both comments are valid - because Scotland is within and connected to a wider pool of pox infestation as well as of endogenous pox, and gmt policy has to respond to both. Also cos the testing problem is UK wide, so that stats problem is too [edit: simply on a descriptive level, and because one can't therefore reliably subdivide the data. ,I asusme.].
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Dont forget ferret racing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
  • Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-52876215

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Berlusconi has left hospital.

    HorozontaL or vertical?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21

    Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited September 2020
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    QAnon is "The Protocols Of The Elders of Zion" with a fresh coat of paint.

    Not even a fresh coat, with the linkage to Soros its back to standard anti-semitic conspiracy theories
  • Whoa! What happened to the nice green PB website???
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    If an election forecaster predicted the probability of Mr A winning with 55% but Mr B won with 280 EC Votes would you still say that forecaster "is miles out"?
    If not where is your cut of to claim that a forecatser "is miles out"?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
    The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
    They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited September 2020
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This is the company that is currently owned by the Japanese?
    It was started in the UK as part of the "Silicon Fens" network of expertise, before being bought in the first wave of loss of its expertise. As the government will not intervene, the jobs and expertise will gradually move away ; the story of endless parts of our critical national infrastructure since the early 1980's, when many Tories embraced the free-market even more radically and fervently than many Reaganites, who made sure to keep critical national strategic assets and companies intact.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
    The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
    They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
    True, but it would hardly be the first time that a big acquisition has been an exercise in value destruction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    Yes, there's a lot of US software and IP at ARM already so it's covered by current US sanctions against Huawei etc...

    The US sanctions look like they might prevent a Chinese company (MediaTek) from selling to another Chinese company (Huawei). I'm not sure that this is a massive deal.
    The far bigger issue is all the incentive for nvidia is to handicap the competition that currently relies on ARM designs. That isn't aligned with making ARM a world leader.
    They just spent $12bn and handed a huge chunk of their company to SoftBank, if they went down that road it would be an exercise of value destruction as clients bail out of the newer ARM instruction sets.
    True, but it would hardly be the first time that a big acquisition has been an exercise in value destruction.
    No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841

    Whoa! What happened to the nice green PB website???

    It's gone and it's never coming back. This is the new normal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2020
    MaxPB said:

    No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!

    Yes, that was a classic. HP's purchase of Autonomy was another fine specimen, but there have been lots. Marconi's acquisition of FORE Systems, and of course RBS's of ABN Amro, were also memorable.

    Remember Nabavi's number one rule of investment, painfully learnt: if you ever have doubts about a large acquisition made by a company you have shares in, don't pussy-foot around: sell, sell , sell.
  • RobD said:

    Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21

    Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
    There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    Somewhere in these are TSE's beauties :)

    https://youtu.be/15WwP_PQPk0
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Trying to get my head round what a Perthshire Tory councillor living life to the full might encompass.
    Dogging? Swinging? Midge hunting?
    You forgot swooping
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
  • RobD said:

    Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21

    Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
    There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18716904.coronavirus-22-confirmed-cases-hampshire-last-24-hours/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Dont forget ferret racing?
    And falconry - like in Kes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    No doubt, the merger of Aberdeen and Standard Life comes to mind!

    Yes, that was a classic.
    Honestly with that one I think the shareholders have a fair shot at compensation from whoever did the due diligence on the merger, it was fairly obvious from the start that the savings were going to be non-existent and there would be a massive erosion of the client base due to crossover in capital pools between the companies and clients needing to hedge their money properly. I don't know what possessed them to pursue it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    RobD said:

    Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21

    Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
    There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
    I had an appointment in Southampton tomorrow. Cancelled due to suspected Covid.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    If an election forecaster predicted the probability of Mr A winning with 55% but Mr B won with 280 EC Votes would you still say that forecaster "is miles out"?
    If not where is your cut of to claim that a forecatser "is miles out"?
    538 final 2016 EC projection

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    2016 actual EC result

    Trump 304
    Clinton 227
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    edited September 2020
    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
    There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
  • TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Not exactly a sport, only one side has guns.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
  • RobD said:

    Been telling you all about the testing fiasco in the North West for weeks now.

    https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21

    Sounds like the excess capacity is in the wrong places. Makes sense, I suppose. Time to start using capacity in the South for tests done in the North?
    There is truly a massive north/south divide with Covid. Down in Southern Hampshire there does not seem to be any covid at all now. I still don't know anyone who has had it and I dont know anyone who knows anyone who has. Its like the pandemic is happening somewhere else, other than all the restrictions.
    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18716904.coronavirus-22-confirmed-cases-hampshire-last-24-hours/
    Hampshire has a population of nearly 2 million
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    Now we know what @NerysHughes looks like, but I though the location was Hampshire not Perthshire.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited September 2020
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so it carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    Why would it need an exemption?

    The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.

    It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.

    That labelling someone's wandering around with will lose its stick soon.
  • Alistair said:

    QAnon is "The Protocols Of The Elders of Zion" with a fresh coat of paint.

    Not even a fresh coat, with the linkage to Soros its back to standard anti-semitic conspiracy theories
    What the f is facebook doing about this?

    Nick Clegg? do something.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
  • RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
    The figure I'm most interested in with the testing data is the positivity rate.

    If that goes up then its a sign of the virus getting out of control again.
    If that goes down then we're either getting the virus under control or testing the wrong people.

    Given that the capacity issues seem to be related to hundreds wanting tests at once due to back to school issues I wonder if we could see both factors counteracting each other?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Not exactly a sport, only one side has guns.
    Pigeon fanciers are armed?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583



    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
    There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
    You are Dido Harding, and I claim my £5.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    Why would it need an exemption?

    The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.

    It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.


  • RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
    There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
    You are Dido Harding, and I claim my £5.
    So what do you think about the UK doing 226,000 tests?

    Thats more than any other European Country
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    Why would it need an exemption?

    The Pigeon Racing Season finished a week ago.

    It will all be breeding in sheds in until next Easter.
    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.
    Better.

    More prosaic, no flair, but the point was well made.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Sure, as I said, it used to be my go-to site.

    It's become very sloppy recently – just misses data, regardless of whether one pays any heed to its forecasts!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583



    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're part of the problem though. One positive test and helicopter parents are clogging up the system for their kids, despite the fact you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms and it may produce a false negative.
    There were 226,000 tests yesterday, I hear this talk about choas in the testing system, but 226,000 is some achievement. We used to do 6000 in April.
    You are Dido Harding, and I claim my £5.
    So what do you think about the UK doing 226,000 tests?

    Thats more than any other European Country
    Quite frankly, and forgive me for being predictable, based on recent history I genuinely do not believe the headline figure stats.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forcecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Perhaps read Anabobazina's post, HYUFD. Key quote, "I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around".

    So you are debating the wrong point if you're saying it was a good website in 2016. The point is they are now sloppy and less than comprehensive.
    Anobabazina is only saying that as he dislikes the RCP results.

    Nate Silver was miles out in 2016, RCP was also out but closer, as I said I will be sticking with RCP not Silver
    I'm not saying that! I'm merely asking why it's become such a sloppy operation in terms of its recording data!!

    I make no point about its forecasts or indeed those of its competitors.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    kinabalu said:

    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.

    Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
  • kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    Quite frankly, and forgive me for being predictable, based on recent history I genuinely do not believe the headline figure stats.

    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1305047756151627776
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.

    Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
    Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited September 2020
    Afternoon, just logged on. When did the site change its appearance?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Scott_xP said:

    Quite frankly, and forgive me for being predictable, based on recent history I genuinely do not believe the headline figure stats.

    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1305047756151627776
    So is it 226,000 or 62,000 tests a day
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited September 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.

    Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
    Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
    Wouldn't be a good move if so, because blood sports are unpopular even among a lot of the new tory base, and partially but not completely on class grounds, too.

  • Wow. Just seen the new main site. Minimalist!

    Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?

    All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.

    http://www.shootingfacts.co.uk/pdf/The-Value-of-Shooting-2014.pdf

    Adds £2bn to the UK economy.

    I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    No, it doesn't.

    Western products which contain ARM IP almost certainly do because they contain other IP, but ARM continues to license in China.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200871.shtml
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Alistair said:

    QAnon is "The Protocols Of The Elders of Zion" with a fresh coat of paint.

    Not even a fresh coat, with the linkage to Soros its back to standard anti-semitic conspiracy theories
    After this election, it will likely have several representatives in Congress.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Wow. Just seen the new main site. Minimalist!

    Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?

    All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.

    I'm already missing the "Winning Here!" rosettes for each political party.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    Wow. Just seen the new main site. Minimalist!

    Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?

    All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.

    "All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull."

    Are you still talking about the new layout or switched to the LotO?
  • Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2020

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Exactly, most grouse beaters are working class as are large numbers of those who go fishing.

    In any case organised football is exempt from the group of six anyway too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    It doesn't apparently. I was mistaken on that specific point about pigeon racing. But the more general and important question is why grouse shooting and the like HAS been given a bespoke exemption when so many other not so dissimilar but more blue collar things haven't.

    Does Cummings' Dad shoot by any chance?
    Maybe also an attempt to open another front in the culture wars by provoiking demos by the wokeists, and/or get up the LDs' and Labour's noses.
    Wouldn't be a good move if so, because blood sports are unpopular even among a lot of the new tory base, and partially but not completely on class grounds, too.

    Not in Tory rural seats, especially in Scotland
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    I can’t remember such a “tomorrow’s chip paper” argument as this one over the Internal Markets Bill. It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers. He’d no doubt be delighted to get kicked out on a “point of principle”, His political career having pretty much exhausted its usefulness to him.

    I follow politics closer than most and I can’t even remember what the rebellion was over this time last year that saw all those MPs expelled. Those considering the same now would do well to consider what pathetic figures the likes of Stewart, Gauke and Greening now cut, sniping on Twitter to try and preserve some semblance of relevance. Or Hammond, tarting himself like Blair. Major, May and Blair are hardly disinterested parties either.

    It’s all just the rough and tumble of dealing with the EU. I’m in uproar over the government’s Rule of Six and snitching agenda, necessitated only by how ineptly it’s run and communicated the covid response. But I’m giving three cheers that they’re giving a robust response to the EU and are prepared to break a few eggs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.

    All organised outdoor sports are already exempt from the rule of 6
  • Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That's a bit of an odd tweet. ARM already comes under US export controls, as indeed does the entire Western tech industry. Almost every contract I sign has a clause explicitly acknowledging this.
    No, it doesn't.

    Western products which contain ARM IP almost certainly do because they contain other IP, but ARM continues to license in China.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200871.shtml
    So do lots of US companies. That isn't the point.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    moonshine said:

    It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.

    Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Sure, as I said, it used to be my go-to site.

    It's become very sloppy recently – just misses data, regardless of whether one pays any heed to its forecasts!
    What do you use instead now?
  • Wow. Just seen the new main site. Minimalist!

    Not bad, and can we maybe get a more "pb" wallpaper sometime please? A darker colour like what we used to have maybe? Greens and reds for a political feel?

    All white is fine but it's like a beige carpet. Neutral (goes with anything) but a bit indistinctive and dull.

    Not if you spill red wine on it.
    Good job SeanT's not around any more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_xP said:

    moonshine said:

    It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.

    Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
    Cox was earning £820,867 a year even before he became a Minister and was the highest earning MP, so am sure he will survive

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/revealed-the-british-mps-who-earned-more-than-7m-outside-of-parliament-in-2014-10066802.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
    I had a very working class friend who enjoyed his pigeon shooting - I used to take his retriever out hunting (for fossils, so he was pretty useless with me, but he was a trained gundog all right).

    It's the differential treatment with other sports which might grate with the public. As do the organised bloodsports per se. It's one thing to harvest/control potential vermin such as deer and partridge, and eat the results, but a couple of guns walking over the fields wouildn't come under the restrictions anyway.
  • Scott_xP said:

    moonshine said:

    It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.

    Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
    Anyone know how many lawyers there are on the Conservative benches these days?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scotland test data has been issued incomplete - only 70 postiive test reported so far today compared to 244 yesterday. Suggestion it is back log in data from the UK Regional Test Centres.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2020
    ** US Election **

    This is rather good. It's a site which takes the Economist election model, and allows you to see how the probabilities change in various scenarios.

    https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/

    For example:

    Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.

    By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What in the heck does the Gov't think it's doing having an exemption specifically for Grouse shooting. Either extend that to all outdoor pursuits and sports or don't have it at all.

    All organised outdoor sports are already exempt from the rule of 6
    I suspect it needed to be specified because all the loony tune antis would be wasting police time trying to get them to stop said activities for purely small minded malicious reasons. Good governance with common sense applied for once
  • TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.

    http://www.shootingfacts.co.uk/pdf/The-Value-of-Shooting-2014.pdf

    Adds £2bn to the UK economy.

    I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
    Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth...
    The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    I used to work with some very active "shooting and fishing" types. My colleague used to describe shooting as "the humane harvesting of free range, organic produce"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Lots of small businesses benefit from shooting and fishing, some in rural areas that have very delicate economies. To the average urbanite it is all about "nobs" though. Extreme prejudice against traditional country people is alive and kicking, sadly.
    I had a very working class friend who enjoyed his pigeon shooting - I used to take his retriever out hunting (for fossils, so he was pretty useless with me, but he was a trained gundog all right).

    It's the differential treatment with other sports which might grate with the public. As do the organised bloodsports per se. It's one thing to harvest/control potential vermin such as deer and partridge, and eat the results, but a couple of guns walking over the fields wouildn't come under the restrictions anyway.
    There is no differential treatment, all organised outdoor sports are included.

    Are partridge vermin? They may eat a bit of corn, but they wouldn't be there in the numbers for anyone to notice if they weren't bred and put out to be shot, I don't think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited September 2020

    Scott_xP said:

    moonshine said:

    It surprises me that there are any Tory MPs left who have not yet realised that Geoff Cox has a sole aim from his time in politics: self promotion for the benefit of his private Chambers.

    Apparently a few have worked out they might still need a career after this Government falls

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1305484742444408832
    Anyone know how many lawyers there are on the Conservative benches these days?
    In 2017 12%, though LDs had more at 16%.

    2019 data not yet available

    file:///home/chronos/u-a4ac0077cff3dec12ab65f91af1476ea4829487c/MyFiles/Downloads/CBP-7529.pdf (p35)

  • Talking of which, I need to go and shoot something (yes, really). I'll be back soon.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest RCP average is Biden leads by 7.4% in the national popular vote but by only 3.7% in the top battleground states.

    Biden leads by 6.4% in Minnesota, 6.3% in Wisconsin, 6% in Nevada, 5.6% in Arizona, 4.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.2% in Michigan, 2.4% in Ohio, 1.2% in Florida and 0.8% in North Carolina on the latest average polling.

    Trump leads by 1.3% in Georgia, 1.7% in Iowa and 3.5% in Texas.

    Therefore Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key swing states Biden or Trump must win to win the EC

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

    I suggest that you use 538's more comprehensive set of polls in key states. For example 538 currently have Biden 7.5% ahead on polling alone in Michigan (and predict a 7.9% winning margin), compared to your 4.2% on a much more limited number of polls.

    Putting that aside, on your figures Biden is at least 4.3% ahead in a combination of swing states that would put him over the line. That is I think more relevant than a 3.7% average that includes states he doesn't really need such as NC.
    Does anyone know why RCP is such a sloppy operation nowadays? It misses some polls and posts others several days late.

    I don't recall it being so shambolic last time around.
    538 final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 48.5%
    Trump 44.9%

    EC

    Clinton 302
    Trump 235
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    RCP final 2016 forecast

    Clinton 46.8%
    Trump 43.6%
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    EC

    Clinton 272
    Trump 266
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    So RCP was closer in 2016 than 538
    Sure, as I said, it used to be my go-to site.

    It's become very sloppy recently – just misses data, regardless of whether one pays any heed to its forecasts!
    What do you use instead now?
    538, but, really, I just want a list of polling released contemporaneously.
  • TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.

    http://www.shootingfacts.co.uk/pdf/The-Value-of-Shooting-2014.pdf

    Adds £2bn to the UK economy.

    I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
    Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth...
    The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No exemption for pigeon racing then. The mask slips. People's Government my arse.
    Why would pigeon racing be restricted?
    They have to let them all go at the same time from one spot,. which merans opening a lot of cages in a very quicki hurry?
    Pigeon racing first sport to resume after lockdown.
    And now having to shut up shop again while the nobs are free to hunt and fish.
    It is an organised sport.
    Ah so pigeon racing carries on then. Good news. Begs the question, though, of which working class equivalents to grouse shooting that do need an exemption are for some strange reason not getting one from this Tory government.
    A bit more preparation would have seen an incisive, coruscating, acute post from you.

    As it is you're having a bit of a shocker.
    I'm simply trying to get to the bottom of the matter. I sense it might be a weathercock as to this government's real attitudes and priorities. A sign that the Red Wall should prepare to be betrayed. First in small ways (like this) but before long fundamentally and profoundly.
    You are making the usual urban mistake of thinking that it is only "nobs" that shoot and fish. Silly prejudice, that is way beneath someone that normally writes very well thought out posts.
    Yes, but who owns the land and who profits from renting it out for shooting?
    Quite an interesting study here, if it so moves you.

    http://www.shootingfacts.co.uk/pdf/The-Value-of-Shooting-2014.pdf

    Adds £2bn to the UK economy.

    I'm sure choirs provide immeasurable benefit to their participants (around 2m according to one study) but I'm not sure they've quantified the economic benefit.
    Ah yes shootingfacts.co.uk, that impartial seeker of truth...
    The whole of the agricultural sector, including hunting as well as all crop and animal production, is worth a bit over £13bn, so I am calling bullshit on that claim.
    Calling bullshit because it offends your small minded prejudice?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,117

    Talking of which, I need to go and shoot something (yes, really). I'll be back soon.

    Rat ratatouille for dinner?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    ** US Election **

    This is rather good. It's a site which takes the Economist election model, and allows you to see how the probabilities change in various scenarios.

    https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/

    For example:

    Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.

    By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.

    If you assign Arizona to the Democrats it gives 96+% chance for them to win.
    Az Dem, Fl GOP is 20% chance for Trump.
  • ** US Election **

    This is rather good. It's a site which takes the Economist election model, and allows you to see how the probabilities change in various scenarios.

    https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/

    For example:

    Economist model has chance of a Biden win at 84%, Trump at 15%. It also has the probabilities for Florida as 70% Biden, 30% Trump.

    By clicking once, or twice, on Florida on the map, you can see how the probabilities at the national level (and for key states in the table below the map) change if either Biden or Trump wins FL. In other words, you can explore the correlations. In this case, if Trump wins FL, then the chance of him winning nationally goes up to 45%.

    Noted with thanks, Richard.

    I can cope with the sloppy numbers on RCP but I can't stand the lazy way every article in favor of one side is accompanied by another in favor of the opposite view. If they did weather forecasts I guess they would always give you two - one which says it's going to rain and another saying it isn't.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    I used to work with some very active "shooting and fishing" types. My colleague used to describe shooting as "the humane harvesting of free range, organic produce"

    Sadly not true with modern pheasant shooting, they are high-velocity battery chickens.
This discussion has been closed.