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  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    Labour will be happier winning two Tory seats in Deal. The residual old east Kent mining vote hasn't quite faded away. The picture for Labour is that they aren't doing too badly in some but not all of the marginal seats they need to win but have underperformed in many of the areas they've neglected allowing UKIP a free run.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Cheers for the answer, Mr. Kelly.

    Robinson's not very impressive generally. A political editor declaring that he knew all the tales of the Brown-Blair war from 10 years ago and didn't report it doesn't inspire confidence.

    Very few journalists are all that good. Andrew Neil and Jeff Randall seem exceptions, and Tim Marshall (Sky's foreign affairs chap) seems to know his beans too.
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    AveryLP said:

    Polruan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

    Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

    I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

    Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

    From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.

    I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.
    Surely you meant to write "colossal midget", Polruan?

    In a world of midgets, the colossal midget is king. Or something.
  • sam
    sam Posts: 727
    Morris_Dancer said:

    What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?

    The UKIP fellow was saying we would leave the EU and apply the same entry laws to everyone around the world so we get the best skilled immigrants no matter where they are from, but people from the EU werent allowed in willy nilly to have the same rights as UK citizens.

    Robinson was saying that was no different from the current system
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    JonC said:

    Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)

    Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )

    Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)

    Con 26
    Lab 20
    LD 9
    Green 2
    Other 3

    Well hung...

    Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though

    Labour and the LibDems hoovered up north Leamington, which is the nicest part of a nice town. It's where I live too!

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    Yet Labour, potentially, come THIRD?

    That's seriously poor.

    The only poll for these elections showed Lab / UKIP within 2% of each other so it was MOE on which of them might get the best vote share. But in a GE areas like London and Scotland and Wales and the mets all get a vote and that will help Labour pull way ahead.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Sam, then Robinson is full of shit.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Anyone got good numbers for Shropshire? Thanks!
  • sam
    sam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    JamesKelly said:

    "What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?"

    That UKIP are able to have a different immigration policy from the others because they would leave the EU.

    More succintly put than my effort!

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Could be ugly for the LDs in Cambs.

    Results coming in on twitter not the official site : #cccelection
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    STOP PRESS - most important news of the day - Brian Coleman pleads guilty!
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    LD lose in Eastville Bristol by 1 vote to Labour.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    @MaxPB

    And just to add to that re power generation - power in the UK is principally produced by combined cycle gas turbines made by Siemens, GE, and (to a lesser extent) Alstom. We also have a number of coal plants of varying efficiency. These coal and gas plants are the marginal producers of electricity. That is, they set the price at which *all* baseload electricity (with the exception of the c. 5% on feed in tariffs) is sold.

    The 'spark spread' and the 'dark spread' measure the margins made by electricity producers between the cost of an mmcf of gas or a mmbtu of coal and the value of electricity produced. There is no way to make wholesale electricity cheaper without securing cheaper coal or natural gas - neither of which are within the ability of British politicians to implement.

    Of course, there are very sensible things we can do - we can encourage fraccing to ensure that at least it's our gas we're burning, and we can get rid of minimum carbon prices - but ultimately, absent massive subsidies, there is nothing politicians can do to substantially affect the price of electricity.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labourites too busy retweeting Kippers to notice the walking rEd.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Neil said:

    STOP PRESS - most important news of the day - Brian Coleman pleads guilty!

    Poor Brian.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Nottinghamshire so far 27 seats declared;

    4 to LD, 13 to labour, 9 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

    Four changes, all going to Labour. Three from Tories and one from Lib Dems.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    tim said:

    @oflynnexpress: The foundation of a century of Tory electoral success - the party's monopoly of the Right - is over. In fact the leadership threw it away.

    Daves legacy

    LOL! A tad over OTT?

    Actually, the Tories monopoly over "the right" ended in the mid 90's when Blair took over Labour and lead as a small c conservative.

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    This is a nationwide election, in optimal circumstances for Labour, and it is very possible Labour will come third. And Labourite who isn't unsettled by that is brain-dead.

    Not including London, Scotland, Wales and the big cities makes the circumstances far from optimal for Labour.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Come on Beeb.. PB declared Cumbria like half an hour ago!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Romney Marsh seat goes to #ukip from Conservatives Now on 8 #kccelection
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Conservatives retain Devon County Council. Con 38 (-3) LD 9 (-5) UKIP 4 (+4) Lab 7 (+3) Green 1 (-) Ind 3 (+1) - @bbchamish #bbcvote2013
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    CON hold Wiltshire.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Nick Robinson repeats the myth about UKIP and MMR.

    Points out that 10% of UKIP supporters have concerns about MMR whilst only 2% of Lib Dem supporters do.

    Fails to point out that 100% of UKIP supporters polled had their kids vaccinated anyway whilst fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to do so.

  • norfolkcodger
    norfolkcodger Posts: 5
    More Norfolk
    So far UKIP have gained 6 seats from Tories including 3 cabinet members

    ACLE: Brian Iles (Conservative) HOLD
    AYLSHAM: David Harrison (Lib Dem) HOLD
    BLOFIELD AND BRUNDALL: Andrew Proctor (Conservative) HOLD
    BLOFIELD with SOUTH WALSHAM: Susan Lawn (Conservative) HOLD
    CAISTER-ON-SEA: Patrick Hacon (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
    CATTON GROVE: Steve Morphew (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
    COSTESSEY: Tim East (Lib Dem) HOLD
    CROMER: Hilary Cox (Conversative) HOLD
    DOCKING: Michael Baylis (Conservative) HOLD
    DOWNHAM MARKET: Tony White (Conservative) HOLD
    DRAYTON AND HORSFORD: Tony Adams (Conservative) HOLD
    EATON: Brian Watkins (Lib Dem) HOLD
    FAKENHAM: Tom Fitzpatrick (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dem
    FINCHAM: Brian Long (Conservative) HOLD
    GAYWOOD SOUTH: Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
    HELLESDON: Shelagh Gurney (Conservative) HOLD
    HOLT: Michael Baker (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
    HOVETON AND STALHAM: Nigel Dixon (Conservative) HOLD
    MUNDESLEY: Wyndham Northam (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dems
    NECTON AND LAUNDITCH: Mark Kiddle-Morris (Conservative) HOLD
    NELSON: Andrew Boswell (Greens) HOLD
    NORTH WALSHAM EAST: Edward Foss (Lib Dem) HOLD
    OLD CATTON: Judy Leggett (Conservative) HOLD
    REEPHAM: James Joyce (Lib Dem) HOLD
    SEWELL: Julie Brociek-Coulton (Labour) GAIN from Greens
    SOUTH SMALLBURGH: David Thomas (Lib Dem) HOLD
    SWAFFHAM: Paul Smythe (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
    TAVERHAM: Stuart Clancy (Conservative) HOLD
    THETFORD EAST: Denis Crawford (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
    THORPE HAMLET: Adrian Dearnley (Greens) HOLD
    UNIVERSITY: Bert Bremner (Labour) HOLD
    WATTON: Stan Hebborn (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
    WENSUM: Elizabeth Morgan (Greens) HOLD
    WEST FLEGG: Michael Carttiss (Conservative) HOLD
    WROXHAM: Tom Garrod (Conservative) HOLD
    YARE AND ALL SAINTS: Cliff Jordan (Conservative) HOLD.
    YARMOUTH NELSON & SOUTHTOWN: Rex Parkinson-Hare (UKIP) HOLD
    YARMOUTH NORTH & CENTRAL: Michael Castle (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives


  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Plato said:

    Conservatives retain Devon County Council. Con 38 (-3) LD 9 (-5) UKIP 4 (+4) Lab 7 (+3) Green 1 (-) Ind 3 (+1) - @bbchamish #bbcvote2013

    Another example of England's East/West divide.

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Daniel Furr @DanielFurrUK
    UKIP gain Margate/Cliftonville. Thanet should've been easy pickings for Labour.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Lib Dem notional hold "Walton and West" in Derbyshire.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013
    Cambs so far

    Ukip +2
    Con -1
    LD -2
    Lab +2
    Gr -1

    5 holds.
  • JonC
    JonC Posts: 67
    SouthamObserver said:

    JonC said:

    Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)

    Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )

    Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)

    Con 26
    Lab 20
    LD 9
    Green 2
    Other 3

    Well hung...

    Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though

    Labour and the LibDems hoovered up north Leamington, which is the nicest part of a nice town. It's where I live too!

    Some of Leam is lovely of course. Assumed you lived in Southam...

    Driving from Stratford to Oxford through Long Compton etc is really lovely

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Richard Howitt MEP @richardhowitt
    Green bubble burst. Here at #Norwich count the THIRD Labour gain from the Greens just announced.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    CON hold West Sussex
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SouthamObserver said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Did he ever get started?

    Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
    It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn. ;)

    is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?
    YouGov had one yesterday.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2013-05-02/Ukip since Sep-11-01 Rolling.jpg

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/02/local-elections-and-question-ukip/
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    If Labour comes third in the projected national share of the vote, surely Ed Miliband will be facing a summer leadership wobble?

    No amount of Labour gloating at the Tories UKIP discomfort could disguise the main Opposition party coming third in the national projected share of the vote in a national poll is an atrocious result for Labour.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Seems the Conservative vote is about half what it was in 2009 #kccelection
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2013
    That's not a myth - the view of Ukip supporters on MMR are based on surveys jst two wks ago.

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nick Robinson repeats the myth about UKIP and MMR.

    Points out that 10% of UKIP supporters have concerns about MMR whilst only 2% of Lib Dem supporters do.

    Fails to point out that 100% of UKIP supporters polled had their kids vaccinated anyway whilst fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to do so.

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    NOC gain East Sussex.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.

    Rather a chilling statement in my book.

    Yawn. Just another nod, nod, wink, wink pretense that the UKIP are the BNP in disguise. The government currently regularly changes the rules for those non-citizens with residency that come from the rest of the world. Yet doing this for EU migrants is "chilling".
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Key wards:

    Con -9
    Lab +8
    LD -11
    UKIP +17

    What was National Equivalent share in 2009?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.

    East Mids very good for Labour. No kippers in Derbyshire with 1 result to come in.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013
    LDs lost 4 of 21 in Cambs already ..

    Perhaps opposing upgrading the A14 was a big factor.

    Live feed

    http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections-2013/

    And the sole green out too - yay.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Nottinghamshire so far 35 seats declared;

    5 to LD, 17 to labour, 12 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

    Seven changes, all going to Labour. Five from Tories, one from UKIP and one from Lib Dems.

    UKIP increased their vote in Hucknal from 20% to 31% but still lost their seat.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Kippers now on 5 in ESxCC - both seats in Telscombe their way. Another 11 yet to declare of 49. 2009 result was 29 Tories 13 LDs 4 Lab [they've got 7 all in Hastings]

    Tories just head of LDs on 13 to 10
  • tpfkar
    tpfkar Posts: 1,578
    Hearing that Lib Dems have just defeated leader of Cambridgeshire CC, Nick Clarke, in Fulbourn ward.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP almost win Dove in East Staffs:

    Con 1507
    UKIP 1355
    Lab 875

    http://moderngov.staffordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=171&RPID=31862883
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @LucyRigby CON 3rd in David Cameron's backyard @labourpress: Labour GAIN Witney Central from Conservatives
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    France going into recession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22395899
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.

    Looking good for NickP soon to be MP again. :D

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Cameron's fatuous detox strategy has allowed UKIP space to grow.

    Did Tony Blair destroy the conservatives? discuss....
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Looking at the Nottinghamshire results I would suggest that it will go from Tory to NOC. I can't see Labour winning it.
  • sam
    sam Posts: 727
    MikeSmithson said:

    That's not a myth - the view of Ukip supporters on MMR are based on surveys jst two wks ago.



    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nick Robinson repeats the myth about UKIP and MMR.

    Points out that 10% of UKIP supporters have concerns about MMR whilst only 2% of Lib Dem supporters do.

    Fails to point out that 100% of UKIP supporters polled had their kids vaccinated anyway whilst fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to do so.

    The party website view

    http://ukipian.com/2013/04/26/mmr-a-dose-of-reality/

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    NOC gain East Sussex.

    Wot? Their website still has 11 results to declare?! I assume its the Kippers and Indies that have done it for the Tories.

    EDIT 1 more seat to UKIP including my ward - WOW
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    CON hold Worcestershire.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tpfkar said:

    Hearing that Lib Dems have just defeated leader of Cambridgeshire CC, Nick Clarke, in Fulbourn ward.

    But lose Duxford to the Blues...
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    MikeSmithson said:

    @LucyRigby CON 3rd in David Cameron's backyard @labourpress: Labour GAIN Witney Central from Conservatives

    It was close

    Labour 756
    UKIP 746
    Con 697
    Green 132
    LD 85
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    tim said:

    @RichardTyndall

    There were two YouGov polls.

    This one

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2ymajaut1j/YG-Archive-MMR-results-130408.pdf

    Showed 41% of Kippers not having given their children MMR

    Picking your polls to suit your position is a classic from you Tim.

    Nick Robinson specifically referred to the poll that Mike referenced on a thread on here and it was that poll that showed the numbers I quoted.

    Your little tricks don't work so well when people actually bother to go look at the facts.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Smithson, it's misleading to state that 10% of UKIP supporters are concerned about MMR without also reporting that 100% of them opted for it, particularly when 'just' 2% of Lib Dems are concerned but some of them didn't go for it.
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    GIN1138 said:

    If Labour comes third in the projected national share of the vote, surely Ed Miliband will be facing a summer leadership wobble?

    No amount of Labour gloating at the Tories UKIP discomfort could disguise the main Opposition party coming third in the national projected share of the vote in a national poll is an atrocious result for Labour.

    Assuming you mean projection adjusted to take account of the particular regions voting this time, I'd have thought second would be atrocious. In terms of the actual votes being cast today, it's all about direction of travel because it's not a national poll, it's a number of local polls which are distributed in an unrepresentative manner.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    MikeSmithson said:

    That's not a myth - the view of Ukip supporters on MMR are based on surveys jst two wks ago.


    One of which showed that 25% of Lib Dem supporters hadn't bothered to have their children vaccinated. Says a lot about both your partial picking of data and the attitudes of Lib Dems to the welfare of their kids.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. T: oi! I demand a hat-tip, (or a plug for Bane of Souls)!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour just lost a by-election gain in Cornwall. Poor IOS

    Labour not getting an overall maj in Lancashire. An underwhelming performance as in much of the rest of the country
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Plato said:

    RobD said:

    NOC gain East Sussex.

    Wot? Their website still has 11 results to declare?! I assume its the Kippers and Indies that have done it for the Tories.

    EDIT 1 more seat to UKIP including my ward - WOW
    There was no way any party could add enough seats to get a majority :)

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The last remaining ward in Derbyshire is however intriguing. UKIP actually stood here last time and these are the results for the two wards which as far as I can tell roughly make up the new ward in 2009. Glossop/Charlesworth


    Sylvia Hall (Uk Independence Party) 585 votes
    Alistair John Stevens (Liberal Democrats) 528 votes
    George David Wharmby (Conservative) 1823 votes
    Jacqueline Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) 744 votes

    George Kuppan (Liberal Democrats) 514 votes
    David Phillips(UK Independence ) 528 votes
    Jean Wharmby (Conservative) 1262 votes
    Roger Wilkinson (Labour) 934 votes.

    There is only 1 UKIP candidate but it is a 2 vote ward...
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Labour gains another UKIP seat - Kidsgrove, Staffs
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    But Candty Atherton gained a seat for Lab in Cornwall.

    Neil, where are you? Candy is back!
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Sky projecting hung parliament in 2015 with Labour on 325 seats on basis on national vote shares extrapolated from current vote count.

    Hardly a platform for a Labour victory two years out.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.

    The incumbency factor is a difficult one to judge in this case. UKIP actually increased their vote by 10.7%. Unfortunately the collapse of Tory and Lib Dem support scuppered them with Labour overtaking them.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    The homosexuals of Cornwall better watch out!
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Labour just lost a by-election gain in Cornwall. Poor IOS

    All that hard work, Andrea ;)
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    *makes a note of Mr. T's promise*
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News projection:

    Hung parliament with Labour largest party.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    It's being reported that an election count in Kent has been disrupted because someone put a stink bomb in a ballot box.

    http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2013-05-03/stink-bomb-disrupts-election-count/
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are probably heading for a national projected share of about 15% as things stand.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Morris_Dancer said:

    *makes a note of Mr. T's promise*

    Perhaps he'll take you along to his next visit to Bangkok.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Neck and Neck in Doncaster mayoral race

    Doncaster Labour is waste of space.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Shaping up to be tight in Cambs - can the Kippers win enough off the Cons to force NOM - Cons winning a few off the LDs but lost 1.
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    Looks like Cons will just about hold on in Oxon - 24 Con 13 Lab, 5 LD, 4 other so far. About 10 wards to go but more rural than urban wards left.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Neck and Neck in Doncaster mayoral race

    Doncaster Labour is waste of space.

    Well Doncaster Labour chose Ed Miliband as their candidate, the signs point they are a bit sub optimal there.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, keep your private fantasies to yourself!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Camborne Treswithian

    UKIP: 232
    Lab: 220
    Con: 216
    MK-PC: 204


  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, keep your private fantasies to yourself!

    It might be educational for you, Mr Thomas may share his secrets of being a top selling author.

    Or you may end up being like the Lib Dem in South Shields, and losing your "deposit"
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Former MP Charlotte Atkins gains Leek South in Staffs
    Lab 37% UKIP 31% Con 25%
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    @David_Herdson I understand herpes fades away and comes back in times of stress. Whether the comparison with UKIP is prescient remains to be seen..
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    Sorry MD, I stole your word!

    http://tinyurl.com/cb6qhbc

    Sean, I'm surprised a man of your background would be so quick to claim eastern England is the cradle of English rebellion, after the events of 1497 and 1549. There's also the Stafford rebellion. The Oxfordshire Rising also comes to mind...

    EDIT: There's also the Western Rising of course.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Daniel Furr ‏@DanielFurrUK 1m
    Harriet Harman effectively rules out a referendum and states Labour would oppose one.

    Of course it's still 50/50

    LOL...
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    AveryLP said:

    Sky projecting hung parliament in 2015 with Labour on 325 seats on basis on national vote shares extrapolated from current vote count.

    Hardly a platform for a Labour victory two years out.

    Indeed. The longer today goes on the more dismal Labour's performance appears, IMO.

    Dan Hodges will go to war with Red later I bet.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Betfair : 200/1 on ukip maj.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    @SeanT perhaps in your next book the character will need knowledge of 80s pop music, the second punic war and an obscure by-election result, and log on to a website that happens to have commenters expert on all three.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    If projection based on yesterday's votes in MID TERM is a hung parliament that is truly dire for Labour.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Slackbladder said:

    Daniel Furr ‏@DanielFurrUK 1m
    Harriet Harman effectively rules out a referendum and states Labour would oppose one.

    Of course it's still 50/50

    LOL...

    Hattie also claimed on Sky that Labour were "the party with momentum" - I mean seriously? Who is she kidding?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    What you neglect to mention is the MOE on that "10" is +/- 24 - the UKIP "unsafe" numbers are within MOE of everyone else.

    You should know better.

    More helpful (and a much bigger number) is "Total Safe":

    OA: 85
    Con: 90
    Lab: 87
    UKIP: 83
    MikeSmithson said:

    That's not a myth - the view of Ukip supporters on MMR are based on surveys jst two wks ago.



    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nick Robinson repeats the myth about UKIP and MMR.

    Points out that 10% of UKIP supporters have concerns about MMR whilst only 2% of Lib Dem supporters do.

    Fails to point out that 100% of UKIP supporters polled had their kids vaccinated anyway whilst fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to do so.

  • JohnWheatley
    JohnWheatley Posts: 142
    Witney result. Sorry not to live up to your prejudices Tim. Central Witney has a long Labour tradition - it is much to do with how they acquired their houses. Labour holds the District seat. The southern part of the County seat has a long standing Labour core. It was always the best Labour bet in West Oxfordshire.

    The Tory candidate in the ward arouses a lot of dislike in many - including me - and was recently ousted from control of the Town Council which he ran as his own fieffdom.

    That said UKIP nearly sneaked it Tory / UKIP / Lab all got 30%
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    GIN1138 said:

    Dan Hodges will go to war with Red later I bet.

    When Dan Hodges turns against him he's finished.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    Mid Sussex @Mid_Sussex
    #Conservative Candidates win every seat in #MidSussex. Congratulations, clean sweep

    RT @Tom_Waterhouse Latest seats tallies: Con 373 (-109), Lab 122 (+68), Lib 128 (-26), UKIP 52 (+52) #vote2013
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 1m
    Curtice: Labour 5 points down on 2005 score when it last won a majority. 'The scale of Labour's progress in truth will disappoint the party'

    Ouch...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    (I think) NOC gain Isle of Wight.
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    "Here" in Cornwall, Mebyon Kernow still leading those UK-federalist Westminster centralisers UKIP 4 seats to 3 (though a little behind in the vote share). Across the river from Polruan in Fowey it was a close-run thing with LD holding just ahead of MK with Cons in 3rd.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Kent

    UKIP take all Folkestone and Sheppey Seats and most of Swale. They also take Romney in Kent Make further inroads into Tunbridge Wells (clearly outraged). The Boston scenario seems to be happening along the Kent Coast.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Welcome back to pb.com, Mr. Wheatley.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.

    The incumbency factor is a difficult one to judge in this case. UKIP actually increased their vote by 10.7%. Unfortunately the collapse of Tory and Lib Dem support scuppered them with Labour overtaking them.
    My reading FWIW is that Con/LD voters are more likely to have tactically voted UKIP but UKIP lost votes to Labour, rather than Con/LD flocking over to Labour. I believe the UKIP councillor NEVER voted in any council decision.
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