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  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Dear God, does he know how ridiculous, desperate and needy this sounds, now?

    UK PM David Cameron says Conservatives must "show respect" for voters backing UKIP in council elections http://bbc.co.uk/vote2013 #vote2013

    A year too late, Dave. Sorry.

    And fairly meaningless while he hasn't retracted his fruitcakes and closet racists slur.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%.

    How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??

    But don't worry, within a week or so we will all be believing Yougov's version of the Labour lead again. 11% I think it was this morning? Snigger.
    A seat projection's credibility (in advance of an election) is as good as the analysis or explanation that comes with it. If there were such a revolutionary set of vote shares, the only single answer to the question of how the seat totals would pan out is "it depends". From there, you'd need to do a number of scenarios, from UNS to proporational to targetted to some mixed version of all three, and provide a set of ranges for the total.

    If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.

    It does look as if the UKIP prospects would be best in East Anglia and the South Coast, Perhaps Lincs, Norfolk, Sussex, and of course Eastleigh etc.

    If they concentrate well and do a long campaign (and provided that their new councillors do not have too many skeletons in their cupboards) they have realistic prospects.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cambridgeshire-Final
    Con 32, LD 14, UKIP 12, Lab 7, Ind 4.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,001
    Socrates said:

    I missed this from a couple weeks ago:

    Iceland and China enter a free trade agreement

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/global/16iht-iceland16.html?_r=0

    Silly Iceland. Don't they know small nations don't have enough weight to sign these things? They certainly having got the economic might to do it when one isn't in sight for the EU, which is more competitive because of its size...

    While I completely agree that small countries can enter free trade agreements (and I seriously doubt that we would much disadvantaged in terms of trade by leaving the EU), it's worth reading the article in its entirety. Specifically this point:

    Iceland’s exports to China last year, mainly fish, totaled $61 million, while it imported Chinese goods and services valued at $341 million.

    But while Iceland cannot offer much in the way of significant new market growth, it could help China in its quest for more influence in the Arctic
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    SeanT said:

    Dear God, does he know how ridiculous, desperate and needy this sounds, now?

    UK PM David Cameron says Conservatives must "show respect" for voters backing UKIP in council elections http://bbc.co.uk/vote2013 #vote2013

    A year too late, Dave. Sorry.

    He had his chance to bow out gracefully from his earlier faux pas and stupidly didn't take it.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:


    Neil. Flailing here since 2009.

    I've been flailing here since 2004!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    adamboultonSKY UKIP hit 100 gains on @skynews councillor tally. Apologies to the bookies for doubting you.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited May 2013
    Do I gather correctly that Plaid Cymru are doing pretty well in Anglesey?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695

    If it is indeed true (at tim keeps reminding us) that UKIP damages the Tories most of all, that is pretty disastrous for Labour, given that the protest element will subside in a GE.

    Spot on.

    Remember the Alliance only won 23 seats with 26% of the vote in 2010. Even if UKIP got 20% in a GE they wouldn't win any seats.

    The killer stat is that in mid term, Lab leads Con by only 4%. In mid term! Factor in:

    1) UKIP vote goes back more to Con than Lab
    2) Swingback

    ..... and Con should be well ahead in votes at a GE. We could even be looking at a Con majority - astonishing as that may seem!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cameron sounds more like Brown every day. Hard working families BINGO.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Mr Pole the two universities have turned their backs on you.

    Pah! They famously turned their backs on Maggie, didn't they?
    Ah yes Mr Louis Seize, that's true but the hinterland traditionally hosts many of the people who work in the towns as opposed the scumbag students.

    I see the blues were even pushed in to 3rd place in Witney.
    Mr. Brooke

    Can you remind me which university was the first to introduce a PPE degree after Oxford?
  • So according the BBC's vote share

    Dave has led the Tories to their worst projected vote share since the BBC started doing it in the 1980's. Nick has done the same for the Libdems and even though both Government parties have been put through the ringer all Miliband's misfits have been able to achieve is the same projected vote share as Gordon Brown actually achieved with the manifesto that Miliband himself wrote for him.

    The other consideration is that on those figures nominally the right of centre vote is 47% and the left of centre vote is 43%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    NOC hold Cornwall
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Cambridgeshire-Final
    Con 32, LD 14, UKIP 12, Lab 7, Ind 4.

    I assume the LD vote has dropped as a result of tuition fees - lost 9 councillors? And Kippers up 8.
  • Oops typo "Is 48% per cent"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    AveryLP said:

    Mr Pole the two universities have turned their backs on you.

    Pah! They famously turned their backs on Maggie, didn't they?
    Ah yes Mr Louis Seize, that's true but the hinterland traditionally hosts many of the people who work in the towns as opposed the scumbag students.

    I see the blues were even pushed in to 3rd place in Witney.
    Mr. Brooke

    Can you remind me which university was the first to introduce a PPE degree after Oxford?
    Ha trick question Mr P, given the way you PPEs run finances I suspect it closed shortly afterwards and no longer exists !
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    Do I gather correctly that Plaid Cymru are doing pretty well in Anglesey?


    They have won 8 seats so far. They held 8 seats pre election.
    5 divisions still to declare. I don't have a clue if they are potential good divisions for them given boundary changes and all the Indies they have there.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Kent hold for Tories according to local reporter
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Mark Thompson ‏@MarkReckons 17m
    Here in a nutshell is why FPTP is so stupid. Winner in Cornwall under 20%:
    *Lab 19.76%
    UKIP 18.98%
    Ind 16.76%
    MK 16.2%
    LD 6.77%
    Green 6.44%
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    @afneil 4m
    Lowest ever Lib Dem performance, even worse than disastrous performances of 2011 and 2012. First time that party has conceded 3rd place.

    Yet UKIP stop the Tories winning Lib Dems seats in the south.



    dismal Labour performance tim, One nation Ed is still preaching to Doncaster.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    AveryLP said:

    Mr Pole the two universities have turned their backs on you.

    Pah! They famously turned their backs on Maggie, didn't they?
    Ah yes Mr Louis Seize, that's true but the hinterland traditionally hosts many of the people who work in the towns as opposed the scumbag students.

    I see the blues were even pushed in to 3rd place in Witney.
    Mr. Brooke

    Can you remind me which university was the first to introduce a PPE degree after Oxford?
    Ha trick question Mr P, given the way you PPEs run finances I suspect it closed shortly afterwards and no longer exists !
    Still going strong Mr. Brooke and paying, I believe, for the services of our very own Prof. on PB!

    [P.S. I am not a PPEer]
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699
    Socrates said:

    So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.

    Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.

    If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Thanks, Andrea.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    rcs1000 said:


    While I completely agree that small countries can enter free trade agreements (and I seriously doubt that we would much disadvantaged in terms of trade by leaving the EU), it's worth reading the article in its entirety. Specifically this point:

    Iceland’s exports to China last year, mainly fish, totaled $61 million, while it imported Chinese goods and services valued at $341 million.

    But while Iceland cannot offer much in the way of significant new market growth, it could help China in its quest for more influence in the Arctic

    Worth pointing out that those numbers are before the FTA. I actually think China is a bit of a special case because of exchange rate manipulation, although that is likely to change as they gradually revalue.

    I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2013
    LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Uniform swing calculators are a total nonsense on these shares - the calculators have no base on knowledge on how UKIP spreads, so they 'flat phase' the votes and show 0, which would be an impressive result to manage on that share, even with FPTP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Expected UKIP to win the Euros next year. I didn't expect them to come within 6% of winning the projected share this year.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Is big lesson of this that UKIP is not evenly spread - they have done very well in quite a small number of Counties.

    This will enable UKIP to target at GE (and basically forget about much of the country).

    But this also means other parties know where they need to campaign against UKIP.

    Thurrock/Eastleigh targets for next GE ?
    I think UKIP would be favs to win a bye election in S Basildon & Thurrock or Thurrock

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    RT @jackwyllie1 Did Miliband mistake one nation for one county?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Dear God, does he know how ridiculous, desperate and needy this sounds, now?

    UK PM David Cameron says Conservatives must "show respect" for voters backing UKIP in council elections http://bbc.co.uk/vote2013 #vote2013

    A year too late, Dave. Sorry.

    He had his chance to bow out gracefully from his earlier faux pas and stupidly didn't take it.
    Yes. Just imbecilic. If he'd politely retracted the fruitcake thing in 2011 or 2012, it wouldn't be an issue today.

    Doing it now looks absurd and hypocritical.

    As for Ken Clarke, there is absolutely no excuse at all. How many thousands of votes did his "clown" comment cost the Tories? Usher him gently into retirement.

    So now the fun bit starts as UKIP will get more members and cash from serious backers which will allow them to take a hack at more seats. Likewise in certain areas they will now be able to play the old LD trick back and claim they are the only credible opposition to any of the big 3 parties. UKIP winning here plus a bar chart, how long until Mark Senior defects ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    But on the BBC national vote share projection there is a CON to LD swing of 1.5%

    LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.

    Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.

    If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
    I really don't think they would lose a referendum. Among a lot of people I know who voted against AV, one of the leading reasons was that it wasn't proportional and thus didn't seem like a worthwhile change. The benefits of AV were hard to make clearly. A system that can be classed as PR, which STV definitely will be, has a very clear argument that makes sense to most non-political people.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    it looks like

    Con -400
    Lab +just over 200
    LD -150
    UKIP +120

    ?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    <

    Jack

    COBHAM Con Hold
    EAST MOLESEY AND ESHER Res Ass Gain(Con)
    HERSHAM Con Hold
    HINCHLEY WOOD, CLAYGATE AND OXSHOTT Con Hold
    THE DITTONS Res Ass Hold
    WALTON Res Ass Hold
    WALTON SOUTH AND OATLANDS Con Hold
    WEST MOLESEY Res Ass Hold
    WEYBRIDGE Con Hold

    Jack

    Two ERRORS from the legendary Andrea in one post...off to the naughty corner for you, young man!!

    Molesey East and Esher was a RA hold (not gain) by a nail-biting 24 votes after three recounts
    Walton was a Tory GAIN from RA by over 100
    (And technically Weybridge is a Con GAIN from UKIP as the incumbent had defected to the kippers - he was a poor third.

    In Hersham, thanks to Neil (gorgeous pouting greenies) and Jack (Jacobite hoards) we almost tripled our majority.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Ella B ‏@vedamaladie 1m
    Remember the councillor who said "disabled children should be put down"? He's just been re-elected in Cornwall.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Plato said:


    Not a bad result for the Blue Team.

    Are you following the same elections as the rest of us?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    UKPR

    Con 25
    Lab 29
    LD 14
    UKIP 24


    Con 232
    Lab 335
    LD 53
    UKIP 0


    Lab Maj 20.
    On under 30% of the vote.

    The Tories relationship with FPTP is that of a junky to a dealer with an impure supply

    I think that the FPTP discussion will be more nuanced as the analysis deepens. The Tories have lost seats, but not the wipeout predicted, but the gains are going to UKIP as well as Labour. The LibDems customarily do well in the locals compared with the GE, and adjusting for that face a number of losses of seats, some of which will go Tory.

    UNS does not work when the parties are so unevenly placed, indeed the gearing works against Labour when their vote drops enough, as we saw in the 80'S when it was mooted that Labour could not win under FPTP.

    There will not be many three or four way marginals in 2015.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    What is the UKIP total, as of now: i.e, have they passed my 117 seat gain prediction?
    I've been out getting a bit of southern sun; the same sun that's shining on UKIP.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    UKPR

    Con 25
    Lab 29
    LD 14
    UKIP 24


    Con 232
    Lab 335
    LD 53
    UKIP 0


    Lab Maj 20.
    On under 30% of the vote.

    The Tories relationship with FPTP is that of a junky to a dealer with an impure supply

    Ignoring the party names here and imagine there are Party A, B, C, D etc, should anything like this happen (there's a long way to go yet let's not extrapolate too much), UK democracy has a serious issue, as the voting system would be well and truly broken as a means of reflecting the people's will at all. A two party voting system won't work with 4 (5 in Wales/Scotland).

    Now we would all need to reflect if things are in fact long term trends and not blips etc, and I would never advocate pure PR which ends up as a kaleidascopic zoo (some mix of constituency/top up but ensuring in a genuine soild landslide a majority is possible?),but 5 years of any party having a fairly solid majority on 29% and leading two others by only 4 and 5% isn't right is it? I'm sure we all deep down know it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    E Sx - UKIP share 27% - LDs 14%, Labour vote up just 6% - Amber Rudd in Hastings will have to work hard though as she doesn't have much margin.

    We're clearly love Nigel here ;^ )
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,001
    Socrates said:



    I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?

    @Socrates,

    I mean that I do not believe the rules with which we trade with the rest of the world would be adversely impacted by us leaving the EU. (There a few exceptions to this, such as the auto industry where we are very integrated into pan-Euro supply chains, but I suspect we'd negotiate a position with the EU where we remained effectively part of the SEA for this sector.)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    John

    I cut and pasted from the Surrey council website! Do you re-elect them when they can't even post proper results?!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,241
    Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.

    Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Nadine : "hopefully I'll remain a Conservative".

    Hopefully? Isn't that mainly up to you?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    it looks like

    Con -400
    Lab +just over 200
    LD -150
    UKIP +120

    ?

    There are only 6 counties to fully declare in England and the tories have currently lost a net 214. How do you get to 400? Are there still some very big ones to come?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    MikeK

    I think they are at 116 gains at the moment...1 more for you
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.

    Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.

    If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
    I really don't think they would lose a referendum. Among a lot of people I know who voted against AV, one of the leading reasons was that it wasn't proportional and thus didn't seem like a worthwhile change. The benefits of AV were hard to make clearly. A system that can be classed as PR, which STV definitely will be, has a very clear argument that makes sense to most non-political people.
    And the Yes campaign would hopefully have learned some lessons from last time, like the need to include UKIP and the fact that you can't get majority support in a British election purely by targeting pro-European liberal metropolitan transvestites.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FPT: @Plato

    What are you these days ? Blue or Purple ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    15.00 Jan Ozog, a Tory, has beaten his UKIP mother in law Jo Shippam, to win Dartford West. (Christmas in their house - imagine).
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "And the Yes campaign would hopefully have learned some lessons from last time"

    I hope the main lesson they'd learn is to call the No campaign out on all the lies, and not accept the outrageous stuff (that people astonishingly believed) about "babies/soldiers/kittens will die because of AV".
  • Sean_F said:

    Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.

    Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.

    A lot of it is down to immigration and in particular cheap European farm Labour coming into that region. Its been a while since I've been up there but I withessed open hostility in the region to the influx of immigrant labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    But on the BBC national vote share projection there is a CON to LD swing of 1.5%

    LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"

    Confident of holding Solihull :D ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still waiting for a final result from Nottinghamshire.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    @DavidL

    I was following here thanks to RobD's work
    https://docs.google.com/a/campus.unimib.it/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0

    but it's my fault...as the last few councils finish, they win more seats and so the - tally decrease rather than increase (just like Durham will put Labour over 500 seats won overall). They will probably go over 300 losses, but not closer to 400.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:



    I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?

    @Socrates,

    I mean that I do not believe the rules with which we trade with the rest of the world would be adversely impacted by us leaving the EU. (There a few exceptions to this, such as the auto industry where we are very integrated into pan-Euro supply chains, but I suspect we'd negotiate a position with the EU where we remained effectively part of the SEA for this sector.)
    Ah ok. The economist in me was thinking this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terms_of_trade

    Don't you think we'd benefit from trade deals with people like the US, Canada, India, Japan, Australia etc? Not to mention cheap food from Africa...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.

    Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.

    Labour have won seats in Dorset after many years.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Sean_F said:

    Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.

    Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.

    I am so clever!!!!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    I think Euroscepticism in the south west may have peaked a few years ago, maybe because a łot of young families are moving to that area.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    surbiton said:

    FPT: @Plato

    What are you these days ? Blue or Purple ?

    Neither.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Plato said:

    15.00 Jan Ozog, a Tory, has beaten his UKIP mother in law Jo Shippam, to win Dartford West. (Christmas in their house - imagine).

    Still doesn't beat the daughter defeating her father. But then she was Labour and you know what they are like with families.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    @DavidL

    I was following here thanks to RobD's work
    https://docs.google.com/a/campus.unimib.it/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0

    but it's my fault...as the last few councils finish, they win more seats and so the - tally decrease rather than increase (just like Durham will put Labour over 500 seats won overall). They will probably go over 300 losses, but not closer to 400.

    Sorry, that's my crappy method of calculating the change!

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    You're neither, Plato? You voted Conservative yesterday - correct?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,241

    One month ago, 13 gains in the South West would have seemed a decent result for UKIP, but now it looks rather paltry.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Am I missing something on Rob's sheet? The net gain/loss is a long long way from tallying to 0 across all parties. Is it understating Lab gains, or overstating Tory losses (2nd seems more likely from comparison to TV numbers) or has there been a sizable reduction in seat numbers?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @RobD

    Thanks for the fantastich job.

    I slept too little and so my mind is working well at the moment :-)
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Plato said:

    surbiton said:

    FPT: @Plato

    What are you these days ? Blue or Purple ?

    Neither.
    Lol.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    AndyJS said:

    Still waiting for a final result from Nottinghamshire.

    Labour need to win 6 out of the last 6, all in Gedling, for an overall majority.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    it looks like

    Con -400
    Lab +just over 200
    LD -150
    UKIP +120

    ?

    Tories not only support FPTP but even pay for it !

    If Labour wins an absolute majority with circa 30% of the votes, that would be fun indeed !!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @RobD

    Many thanks for your work on this - it seems to be the only coherent place where you can actually get the results promptly.

    Running my eye down the counties still to declare fully, it looks to me as though the total Con losses will be something like 320. If I'm right, that's not too bad considering the starting point and the Ukipalypse.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    DurhamCountyCouncil @DurhamCouncil
    #durhamelections Barnard Castle East result: George Richardson (CON) and James Rowlandson (CON) elected.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Type the word 'Cornwall' into Twitter and you get hundreds of tweets about just one thing -

    Richard Blaber ‏@RichardBlaber 57s
    Words fail me. The electors of Wadebridge East ward in Cornwall should hang their heads in shame for re-electing this man to public office.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?

    You may, Southam!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,241
    Corby Rural saw a Conservative re-elected on 28% of the vote. The Lib Dem cane fourth on 23%.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Tomos Livingstone ‏@TomosL 1m
    Running total Anglesey - PC 10, Ind 7, Lab 3, LD 1 #vote2013
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News saying that UKIP have gained 93 seats so far.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    The BBC methods of reporting these elections is spectacularly, incredibly pathetic. Despite the number of councils fully declared on their website (which hasn't moved for a very long time) staying the same the number of councillors and the losses keep changing.

    They really need to employ someone competent like Rob to help them provide a public service.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And....they're off!

    Nile Gardiner in the UKIPgraph:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100214478/david-camerons-modernising-agenda-has-been-a-disaster-its-time-for-the-tories-to-return-to-thatcherism/

    "David Cameron’s ‘modernising’ agenda has been a disaster. It’s time for the Tories to return to Thatcherism."

    What ever that is......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Still waiting for a final result from Nottinghamshire.

    Labour need to win 6 out of the last 6, all in Gedling, for an overall majority.

    As we know Gedling is moving towards Labour demographically so maybe they can win all 6.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?

    Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.

    All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    ElectoralReformCymru ‏@ERS_Cymru 56s
    #Anglesey RUNNING TOTAL VOTE SHARE
    @Plaid_Cymru 36%
    Indies (4 groups) 28%
    @welshlabour 18%
    @WelshLibDems 7%
    @UKIP 7%
    @WelshConserv 4%
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    What a sensational day. The day, perhaps, when FPTP died as a credible electoral system in this country. If that is the case, for me it will be the most significant and joyous event of my little political life. God bless UKIP. I agree with little of what they say, but should they have helped to bring about the end of our awful voting system if they achieve nothing else they will have made this country a better place.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    Corby Rural saw a Conservative re-elected on 28% of the vote. The Lib Dem cane fourth on 23%.

    You just love FPTP, don't you ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I really do need Ukip to get to 100 gains. I staked more than I would like to admit on that outcome.
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News saying that UKIP have gained 93 seats so far.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    This is how Colin Brewer was reelected in Wadebridge East, the man who said disabled children should be put down:

    Brewer Ind 335
    LD 331
    UKIP 208
    Lab 161
    Con 150
    Maguire Ind 146
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    surbiton said:


    If Labour wins an absolute majority with circa 30% of the votes, that would be fun indeed !!

    I don't think it would do them much good in the long run.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "In that light it is much less surprising that he was re-elected. Plus the Cornish are simply contrary."

    On the plus side I gather he only won by four votes.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    And....they're off!

    Nile Gardiner in the UKIPgraph:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100214478/david-camerons-modernising-agenda-has-been-a-disaster-its-time-for-the-tories-to-return-to-thatcherism/

    "David Cameron’s ‘modernising’ agenda has been a disaster. It’s time for the Tories to return to Thatcherism."

    What ever that is......

    Just the start, I suspect.

    That Gove thing was on the wireless earlier, sounding a bit panicky as he tried to pre-emptively squash any leadership speculation.

    Not as entertaining as the R5 panel a while ago. Kevin Maguire was the calm, analytical voice of reason. The other two panelists being Dan Hodges and James Delingpole...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772

    Type the word 'Cornwall' into Twitter and you get hundreds of tweets about just one thing -

    Richard Blaber ‏@RichardBlaber 57s
    Words fail me. The electors of Wadebridge East ward in Cornwall should hang their heads in shame for re-electing this man to public office.

    That's democracy for you. Don't have to like it though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    And....they're off!

    Nile Gardiner in the UKIPgraph:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100214478/david-camerons-modernising-agenda-has-been-a-disaster-its-time-for-the-tories-to-return-to-thatcherism/

    "David Cameron’s ‘modernising’ agenda has been a disaster. It’s time for the Tories to return to Thatcherism."

    What ever that is......

    Clearly they think that the government should focus on privatising the nationalised industries like steel and coal and utilities.

    Or reforming union legislation so there is no strike without a democratic vote and no secondary picketing.

    Or bringing inflation under control.

    Yes modern conservatism has so much to learn from a leader of 30 years ago. Sigh.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    surbiton said:

    Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?

    Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.

    All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?

    I said yesterday I had a feeling that UKIP would do much better in the East than in the West, and that we might have to start thinking about another divide in England alongside the North South one. It goes way back in history and it may just be starting to reassert itself.

  • samsam Posts: 727
    surbiton said:

    Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?

    Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.

    All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
    Probably, although it will be interesting to hear the Jackanory that the dogmatic pro immigration police try to deflect this with

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    320 CON losses is almost bang in line with the Rallings and Thrasher projection.

    Their LAB figure is going to be very much out

    @RobD

    Many thanks for your work on this - it seems to be the only coherent place where you can actually get the results promptly.

    Running my eye down the counties still to declare fully, it looks to me as though the total Con losses will be something like 320. If I'm right, that's not too bad considering the starting point and the Ukipalypse.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    James Vincent @BBCJamesVincent
    Ros Jones of Labour 590 votes ahead of Peter Davies on 1st preference. The all important 2nd preferences are being counted. #Doncaster
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    First Prefs in Doncaster

    Lab 21,996
    Peter Davies 21,406
    EngDem 4,651
    Ind 4,555
    Con 2,811
    TUSC 1,916
    LD 1,122
    Ind Ward 1,110
    Nationl Front 1,066
    Save your Services 786

    Not looking good for Labour.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    What a sensational day. The day, perhaps, when FPTP died as a credible electoral system in this country. If that is the case, for me it will be the most significant and joyous event of my little political life. God bless UKIP. I agree with little of what they say, but should they have helped to bring about the end of our awful voting system if they achieve nothing else they will have made this country a better place.

    Agree.

    FPTP is surely untenable now. With only the Tories and a few Labour dinosaurs to fight its corner, versus 3 of the 4 main parties, something's got to give.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    Looks like Tories may lose less seats than Labour did in 2009 (291), and Labour may only gain 250-ish. That's terrible for Ed.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    I really do need Ukip to get to 100 gains. I staked more than I would like to admit on that outcome.

    Relax, Mike. They're already on 133 on RobD's spreadsheet.
This discussion has been closed.