BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%.
How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??
But don't worry, within a week or so we will all be believing Yougov's version of the Labour lead again. 11% I think it was this morning? Snigger.
A seat projection's credibility (in advance of an election) is as good as the analysis or explanation that comes with it. If there were such a revolutionary set of vote shares, the only single answer to the question of how the seat totals would pan out is "it depends". From there, you'd need to do a number of scenarios, from UNS to proporational to targetted to some mixed version of all three, and provide a set of ranges for the total.
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
It does look as if the UKIP prospects would be best in East Anglia and the South Coast, Perhaps Lincs, Norfolk, Sussex, and of course Eastleigh etc.
If they concentrate well and do a long campaign (and provided that their new councillors do not have too many skeletons in their cupboards) they have realistic prospects.
Silly Iceland. Don't they know small nations don't have enough weight to sign these things? They certainly having got the economic might to do it when one isn't in sight for the EU, which is more competitive because of its size...
While I completely agree that small countries can enter free trade agreements (and I seriously doubt that we would much disadvantaged in terms of trade by leaving the EU), it's worth reading the article in its entirety. Specifically this point:
Iceland’s exports to China last year, mainly fish, totaled $61 million, while it imported Chinese goods and services valued at $341 million.
But while Iceland cannot offer much in the way of significant new market growth, it could help China in its quest for more influence in the Arctic
If it is indeed true (at tim keeps reminding us) that UKIP damages the Tories most of all, that is pretty disastrous for Labour, given that the protest element will subside in a GE.
Spot on.
Remember the Alliance only won 23 seats with 26% of the vote in 2010. Even if UKIP got 20% in a GE they wouldn't win any seats.
The killer stat is that in mid term, Lab leads Con by only 4%. In mid term! Factor in:
1) UKIP vote goes back more to Con than Lab 2) Swingback
..... and Con should be well ahead in votes at a GE. We could even be looking at a Con majority - astonishing as that may seem!
Dave has led the Tories to their worst projected vote share since the BBC started doing it in the 1980's. Nick has done the same for the Libdems and even though both Government parties have been put through the ringer all Miliband's misfits have been able to achieve is the same projected vote share as Gordon Brown actually achieved with the manifesto that Miliband himself wrote for him.
The other consideration is that on those figures nominally the right of centre vote is 47% and the left of centre vote is 43%
Do I gather correctly that Plaid Cymru are doing pretty well in Anglesey?
They have won 8 seats so far. They held 8 seats pre election. 5 divisions still to declare. I don't have a clue if they are potential good divisions for them given boundary changes and all the Indies they have there.
Mark Thompson @MarkReckons 17m Here in a nutshell is why FPTP is so stupid. Winner in Cornwall under 20%: *Lab 19.76% UKIP 18.98% Ind 16.76% MK 16.2% LD 6.77% Green 6.44%
So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.
Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.
If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
While I completely agree that small countries can enter free trade agreements (and I seriously doubt that we would much disadvantaged in terms of trade by leaving the EU), it's worth reading the article in its entirety. Specifically this point:
Iceland’s exports to China last year, mainly fish, totaled $61 million, while it imported Chinese goods and services valued at $341 million.
But while Iceland cannot offer much in the way of significant new market growth, it could help China in its quest for more influence in the Arctic
Worth pointing out that those numbers are before the FTA. I actually think China is a bit of a special case because of exchange rate manipulation, although that is likely to change as they gradually revalue.
I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?
LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"
Uniform swing calculators are a total nonsense on these shares - the calculators have no base on knowledge on how UKIP spreads, so they 'flat phase' the votes and show 0, which would be an impressive result to manage on that share, even with FPTP.
Dear God, does he know how ridiculous, desperate and needy this sounds, now?
UK PM David Cameron says Conservatives must "show respect" for voters backing UKIP in council elections http://bbc.co.uk/vote2013 #vote2013
A year too late, Dave. Sorry.
He had his chance to bow out gracefully from his earlier faux pas and stupidly didn't take it.
Yes. Just imbecilic. If he'd politely retracted the fruitcake thing in 2011 or 2012, it wouldn't be an issue today.
Doing it now looks absurd and hypocritical.
As for Ken Clarke, there is absolutely no excuse at all. How many thousands of votes did his "clown" comment cost the Tories? Usher him gently into retirement.
So now the fun bit starts as UKIP will get more members and cash from serious backers which will allow them to take a hack at more seats. Likewise in certain areas they will now be able to play the old LD trick back and claim they are the only credible opposition to any of the big 3 parties. UKIP winning here plus a bar chart, how long until Mark Senior defects ?
LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"
So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.
Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.
If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
I really don't think they would lose a referendum. Among a lot of people I know who voted against AV, one of the leading reasons was that it wasn't proportional and thus didn't seem like a worthwhile change. The benefits of AV were hard to make clearly. A system that can be classed as PR, which STV definitely will be, has a very clear argument that makes sense to most non-political people.
COBHAM Con Hold EAST MOLESEY AND ESHER Res Ass Gain(Con) HERSHAM Con Hold HINCHLEY WOOD, CLAYGATE AND OXSHOTT Con Hold THE DITTONS Res Ass Hold WALTON Res Ass Hold WALTON SOUTH AND OATLANDS Con Hold WEST MOLESEY Res Ass Hold WEYBRIDGE Con Hold
Two ERRORS from the legendary Andrea in one post...off to the naughty corner for you, young man!!
Molesey East and Esher was a RA hold (not gain) by a nail-biting 24 votes after three recounts Walton was a Tory GAIN from RA by over 100 (And technically Weybridge is a Con GAIN from UKIP as the incumbent had defected to the kippers - he was a poor third.
In Hersham, thanks to Neil (gorgeous pouting greenies) and Jack (Jacobite hoards) we almost tripled our majority.
The Tories relationship with FPTP is that of a junky to a dealer with an impure supply
I think that the FPTP discussion will be more nuanced as the analysis deepens. The Tories have lost seats, but not the wipeout predicted, but the gains are going to UKIP as well as Labour. The LibDems customarily do well in the locals compared with the GE, and adjusting for that face a number of losses of seats, some of which will go Tory.
UNS does not work when the parties are so unevenly placed, indeed the gearing works against Labour when their vote drops enough, as we saw in the 80'S when it was mooted that Labour could not win under FPTP.
There will not be many three or four way marginals in 2015.
What is the UKIP total, as of now: i.e, have they passed my 117 seat gain prediction? I've been out getting a bit of southern sun; the same sun that's shining on UKIP.
The Tories relationship with FPTP is that of a junky to a dealer with an impure supply
Ignoring the party names here and imagine there are Party A, B, C, D etc, should anything like this happen (there's a long way to go yet let's not extrapolate too much), UK democracy has a serious issue, as the voting system would be well and truly broken as a means of reflecting the people's will at all. A two party voting system won't work with 4 (5 in Wales/Scotland).
Now we would all need to reflect if things are in fact long term trends and not blips etc, and I would never advocate pure PR which ends up as a kaleidascopic zoo (some mix of constituency/top up but ensuring in a genuine soild landslide a majority is possible?),but 5 years of any party having a fairly solid majority on 29% and leading two others by only 4 and 5% isn't right is it? I'm sure we all deep down know it.
I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?
I mean that I do not believe the rules with which we trade with the rest of the world would be adversely impacted by us leaving the EU. (There a few exceptions to this, such as the auto industry where we are very integrated into pan-Euro supply chains, but I suspect we'd negotiate a position with the EU where we remained effectively part of the SEA for this sector.)
Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.
Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
There are only 6 counties to fully declare in England and the tories have currently lost a net 214. How do you get to 400? Are there still some very big ones to come?
So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.
Or not. I doubt Labour could get a move to STV through parliament without a referendum, which they'd lose. If they tried to force it, I could easily see a big enough backbench rebellion to cause the bill to fail.
If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
I really don't think they would lose a referendum. Among a lot of people I know who voted against AV, one of the leading reasons was that it wasn't proportional and thus didn't seem like a worthwhile change. The benefits of AV were hard to make clearly. A system that can be classed as PR, which STV definitely will be, has a very clear argument that makes sense to most non-political people.
And the Yes campaign would hopefully have learned some lessons from last time, like the need to include UKIP and the fact that you can't get majority support in a British election purely by targeting pro-European liberal metropolitan transvestites.
"And the Yes campaign would hopefully have learned some lessons from last time"
I hope the main lesson they'd learn is to call the No campaign out on all the lies, and not accept the outrageous stuff (that people astonishingly believed) about "babies/soldiers/kittens will die because of AV".
Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.
Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
A lot of it is down to immigration and in particular cheap European farm Labour coming into that region. Its been a while since I've been up there but I withessed open hostility in the region to the influx of immigrant labour.
LD rate of loss now marginally ahead of Conservatives on BBC stats. LD -22.7% vs C -22.3%. LD losses so far -68 and C -214. If this holds, the narrative cannot just be "a bad day for the Conservatives"
but it's my fault...as the last few councils finish, they win more seats and so the - tally decrease rather than increase (just like Durham will put Labour over 500 seats won overall). They will probably go over 300 losses, but not closer to 400.
I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?
I mean that I do not believe the rules with which we trade with the rest of the world would be adversely impacted by us leaving the EU. (There a few exceptions to this, such as the auto industry where we are very integrated into pan-Euro supply chains, but I suspect we'd negotiate a position with the EU where we remained effectively part of the SEA for this sector.)
Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.
Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
Going back to the East/West divide, it's noteable that UKIP didn't make the breakthrough in the South West that I expected. They won 5 in Cornwall, 4 in Devon, 3 in Somerset, and 1 in Dorset, and the Conservatives held all three of their councils.
Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
but it's my fault...as the last few councils finish, they win more seats and so the - tally decrease rather than increase (just like Durham will put Labour over 500 seats won overall). They will probably go over 300 losses, but not closer to 400.
Sorry, that's my crappy method of calculating the change!
Am I missing something on Rob's sheet? The net gain/loss is a long long way from tallying to 0 across all parties. Is it understating Lab gains, or overstating Tory losses (2nd seems more likely from comparison to TV numbers) or has there been a sizable reduction in seat numbers?
Many thanks for your work on this - it seems to be the only coherent place where you can actually get the results promptly.
Running my eye down the counties still to declare fully, it looks to me as though the total Con losses will be something like 320. If I'm right, that's not too bad considering the starting point and the Ukipalypse.
Type the word 'Cornwall' into Twitter and you get hundreds of tweets about just one thing -
Richard Blaber @RichardBlaber 57s Words fail me. The electors of Wadebridge East ward in Cornwall should hang their heads in shame for re-electing this man to public office.
The BBC methods of reporting these elections is spectacularly, incredibly pathetic. Despite the number of councils fully declared on their website (which hasn't moved for a very long time) staying the same the number of councillors and the losses keep changing.
They really need to employ someone competent like Rob to help them provide a public service.
What a sensational day. The day, perhaps, when FPTP died as a credible electoral system in this country. If that is the case, for me it will be the most significant and joyous event of my little political life. God bless UKIP. I agree with little of what they say, but should they have helped to bring about the end of our awful voting system if they achieve nothing else they will have made this country a better place.
"David Cameron’s ‘modernising’ agenda has been a disaster. It’s time for the Tories to return to Thatcherism."
What ever that is......
Just the start, I suspect.
That Gove thing was on the wireless earlier, sounding a bit panicky as he tried to pre-emptively squash any leadership speculation.
Not as entertaining as the R5 panel a while ago. Kevin Maguire was the calm, analytical voice of reason. The other two panelists being Dan Hodges and James Delingpole...
Type the word 'Cornwall' into Twitter and you get hundreds of tweets about just one thing -
Richard Blaber @RichardBlaber 57s Words fail me. The electors of Wadebridge East ward in Cornwall should hang their heads in shame for re-electing this man to public office.
That's democracy for you. Don't have to like it though.
Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?
Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.
All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
I said yesterday I had a feeling that UKIP would do much better in the East than in the West, and that we might have to start thinking about another divide in England alongside the North South one. It goes way back in history and it may just be starting to reassert itself.
Many thanks for your work on this - it seems to be the only coherent place where you can actually get the results promptly.
Running my eye down the counties still to declare fully, it looks to me as though the total Con losses will be something like 320. If I'm right, that's not too bad considering the starting point and the Ukipalypse.
James Vincent @BBCJamesVincent Ros Jones of Labour 590 votes ahead of Peter Davies on 1st preference. The all important 2nd preferences are being counted. #Doncaster
What a sensational day. The day, perhaps, when FPTP died as a credible electoral system in this country. If that is the case, for me it will be the most significant and joyous event of my little political life. God bless UKIP. I agree with little of what they say, but should they have helped to bring about the end of our awful voting system if they achieve nothing else they will have made this country a better place.
Agree.
FPTP is surely untenable now. With only the Tories and a few Labour dinosaurs to fight its corner, versus 3 of the 4 main parties, something's got to give.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn Looks like Tories may lose less seats than Labour did in 2009 (291), and Labour may only gain 250-ish. That's terrible for Ed.
Comments
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
It does look as if the UKIP prospects would be best in East Anglia and the South Coast, Perhaps Lincs, Norfolk, Sussex, and of course Eastleigh etc.
If they concentrate well and do a long campaign (and provided that their new councillors do not have too many skeletons in their cupboards) they have realistic prospects.
Con 32, LD 14, UKIP 12, Lab 7, Ind 4.
Iceland’s exports to China last year, mainly fish, totaled $61 million, while it imported Chinese goods and services valued at $341 million.
But while Iceland cannot offer much in the way of significant new market growth, it could help China in its quest for more influence in the Arctic
Remember the Alliance only won 23 seats with 26% of the vote in 2010. Even if UKIP got 20% in a GE they wouldn't win any seats.
The killer stat is that in mid term, Lab leads Con by only 4%. In mid term! Factor in:
1) UKIP vote goes back more to Con than Lab
2) Swingback
..... and Con should be well ahead in votes at a GE. We could even be looking at a Con majority - astonishing as that may seem!
Can you remind me which university was the first to introduce a PPE degree after Oxford?
Dave has led the Tories to their worst projected vote share since the BBC started doing it in the 1980's. Nick has done the same for the Libdems and even though both Government parties have been put through the ringer all Miliband's misfits have been able to achieve is the same projected vote share as Gordon Brown actually achieved with the manifesto that Miliband himself wrote for him.
The other consideration is that on those figures nominally the right of centre vote is 47% and the left of centre vote is 43%
Con 1,253
LD 1,252
UKiP 346
Lab 269
http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections-2013/south-cambs.htm#Linton
They have won 8 seats so far. They held 8 seats pre election.
5 divisions still to declare. I don't have a clue if they are potential good divisions for them given boundary changes and all the Indies they have there.
Here in a nutshell is why FPTP is so stupid. Winner in Cornwall under 20%:
*Lab 19.76%
UKIP 18.98%
Ind 16.76%
MK 16.2%
LD 6.77%
Green 6.44%
[P.S. I am not a PPEer]
If the Lib Dems had any sense they'd demand STV for a reformed Lords, which should be far more easily accomplished. But then if they'd had any sense they'd have demanded that in 2010 too.
I'm also not clear what you your point is around "terms of trade"? Do you mean balance of payments, the standard definition of terms of trade, or something else I'm missing?
As far as I can tell from http://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsDetail.aspx?division=2&locationGroup=102 and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_and_Skegness_(UK_Parliament_constituency) UKIP have a complete lock on councillors for Boston & Skegness now.
RT @jackwyllie1 Did Miliband mistake one nation for one county?
Con -400
Lab +just over 200
LD -150
UKIP +120
?
Remember the councillor who said "disabled children should be put down"? He's just been re-elected in Cornwall.
UNS does not work when the parties are so unevenly placed, indeed the gearing works against Labour when their vote drops enough, as we saw in the 80'S when it was mooted that Labour could not win under FPTP.
There will not be many three or four way marginals in 2015.
I've been out getting a bit of southern sun; the same sun that's shining on UKIP.
Now we would all need to reflect if things are in fact long term trends and not blips etc, and I would never advocate pure PR which ends up as a kaleidascopic zoo (some mix of constituency/top up but ensuring in a genuine soild landslide a majority is possible?),but 5 years of any party having a fairly solid majority on 29% and leading two others by only 4 and 5% isn't right is it? I'm sure we all deep down know it.
We're clearly love Nigel here ;^ )
I mean that I do not believe the rules with which we trade with the rest of the world would be adversely impacted by us leaving the EU. (There a few exceptions to this, such as the auto industry where we are very integrated into pan-Euro supply chains, but I suspect we'd negotiate a position with the EU where we remained effectively part of the SEA for this sector.)
I cut and pasted from the Surrey council website! Do you re-elect them when they can't even post proper results?!
Yet, they won 61 seats in East Anglia and Lincolnshire.
Hopefully? Isn't that mainly up to you?
I think they are at 116 gains at the moment...1 more for you
What are you these days ? Blue or Purple ?
I hope the main lesson they'd learn is to call the No campaign out on all the lies, and not accept the outrageous stuff (that people astonishingly believed) about "babies/soldiers/kittens will die because of AV".
I was following here thanks to RobD's work
https://docs.google.com/a/campus.unimib.it/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0
but it's my fault...as the last few councils finish, they win more seats and so the - tally decrease rather than increase (just like Durham will put Labour over 500 seats won overall). They will probably go over 300 losses, but not closer to 400.
Don't you think we'd benefit from trade deals with people like the US, Canada, India, Japan, Australia etc? Not to mention cheap food from Africa...
One month ago, 13 gains in the South West would have seemed a decent result for UKIP, but now it looks rather paltry.
Thanks for the fantastich job.
I slept too little and so my mind is working well at the moment :-)
If Labour wins an absolute majority with circa 30% of the votes, that would be fun indeed !!
Many thanks for your work on this - it seems to be the only coherent place where you can actually get the results promptly.
Running my eye down the counties still to declare fully, it looks to me as though the total Con losses will be something like 320. If I'm right, that's not too bad considering the starting point and the Ukipalypse.
#durhamelections Barnard Castle East result: George Richardson (CON) and James Rowlandson (CON) elected.
Richard Blaber @RichardBlaber 57s
Words fail me. The electors of Wadebridge East ward in Cornwall should hang their heads in shame for re-electing this man to public office.
Running total Anglesey - PC 10, Ind 7, Lab 3, LD 1 #vote2013
They really need to employ someone competent like Rob to help them provide a public service.
Nile Gardiner in the UKIPgraph:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100214478/david-camerons-modernising-agenda-has-been-a-disaster-its-time-for-the-tories-to-return-to-thatcherism/
"David Cameron’s ‘modernising’ agenda has been a disaster. It’s time for the Tories to return to Thatcherism."
What ever that is......
All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
#Anglesey RUNNING TOTAL VOTE SHARE
@Plaid_Cymru 36%
Indies (4 groups) 28%
@welshlabour 18%
@WelshLibDems 7%
@UKIP 7%
@WelshConserv 4%
Brewer Ind 335
LD 331
UKIP 208
Lab 161
Con 150
Maguire Ind 146
On the plus side I gather he only won by four votes.
That Gove thing was on the wireless earlier, sounding a bit panicky as he tried to pre-emptively squash any leadership speculation.
Not as entertaining as the R5 panel a while ago. Kevin Maguire was the calm, analytical voice of reason. The other two panelists being Dan Hodges and James Delingpole...
Or reforming union legislation so there is no strike without a democratic vote and no secondary picketing.
Or bringing inflation under control.
Yes modern conservatism has so much to learn from a leader of 30 years ago. Sigh.
Their LAB figure is going to be very much out
Ros Jones of Labour 590 votes ahead of Peter Davies on 1st preference. The all important 2nd preferences are being counted. #Doncaster
Lab 21,996
Peter Davies 21,406
EngDem 4,651
Ind 4,555
Con 2,811
TUSC 1,916
LD 1,122
Ind Ward 1,110
Nationl Front 1,066
Save your Services 786
Not looking good for Labour.
FPTP is surely untenable now. With only the Tories and a few Labour dinosaurs to fight its corner, versus 3 of the 4 main parties, something's got to give.
Looks like Tories may lose less seats than Labour did in 2009 (291), and Labour may only gain 250-ish. That's terrible for Ed.