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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results continue to roll in

Norfolk so far is amazing -was rock solid Tory in 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Is Cameron finished?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "BBC News (UK) ‏@BBCNews

    #vote2013: Bristol council remains in no overall control: Lib Dems lose 6 seats, Greens up 2, Conservatives up 2, Labour up 1, Indep up 1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    Pace Harry Hayfield, Warwickshire is almost certainly heading for NOC, currently Con 22, Lab 20, Lib Dem 5, Others 2, 11 seats left to declare.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    LOL
    The DM Reporter ‏@DMReporter

    NICK CLEGG: “Naturally I’m disappointed that we’re less popular than the BNP, which is why I’m launching our new ‘White is Right’ campaign.”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FPT - David Herdson.

    Yes, I think UKIP are here to stay.

    I think their supporters really are enjoying the moment, they've tapped into the anti-politics mood.

    As the above graphic shows, they're picking up 5 votes for every 2 Labour is picking up.

    I remember Wells 2010 for how volatile UKIP candidates can be, I think that might be an omen.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "Jonah Fallon ‏@Jonah_Fallon

    UKIP gained 9 seats for Essex County Council. Tories lost 18, Labour gained 8, Green Party gained 2 and Residents Association Grabbed 1!"
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT

    PtP, etc.

    Ladbrokes' odds of 7/2 against UKIP winning a 10%-15% share of the vote at the next GE equates to a probability factor of 22%. Based on today's election results, common sense surely suggests this should be nearer 33%, i.e a 2/1 shot.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Probably only in June 2015 still. It all depends on whether the party carries on believing its own media spin - that is, it's appropriate to try and spin these results by insisting that Labour also has problems, isn't winning back enough votes it lost between 2005 and 2010 and so on; but it's not a very good idea to privately believe that that line is actually any comfort because Labour doesn't need to win back many votes for Ed to have a majority next time out.

    There seems to be a major problem going on in the blue camp of confusing the effort you have to put in to keeping the media narrative positive with the likely reality (I'm sure that no Tory-leaning posters on PB would fall into that trap, of course...). The fact that Ed's going to cruise to an ignominious victory gives a good spin narrative but it doesn't really address the central problem of being kicked out of No. 10.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Good result for Labour in Matlock, go from not standing to winning the seats by ~28 votes from CON. UKIP only 4th, LD from 1st with 55% of the vote to third.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    The other thing I find interesting is that the Greens didn't manage to increase their vote share, with so many disaffected lefty former Lib Dems one would think that the Greens would have seen a small uptick in their vote share. So chalk up another party that UKIP are affecting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

    Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

    I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

    Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Did he ever get started?

    Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
    It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn. ;)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Kent has 84 seats, 43 for majority!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    PtP, etc.

    Ladbrokes' odds of 7/2 against UKIP winning a 10%-15% share of the vote at the next GE equates to a probability factor of 22%. Based on today's election results, common sense surely suggests this should be nearer 33%, i.e a 2/1 shot.

    Peter, what do you think of this market (with Shadsy)

    UKIP To Win At Least One Seat In The Next General Election 6/4

    To not win 1/2
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Polruan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Probably only in June 2015 still. It all depends on whether the party carries on believing its own media spin - that is, it's appropriate to try and spin these results by insisting that Labour also has problems, isn't winning back enough votes it lost between 2005 and 2010 and so on; but it's not a very good idea to privately believe that that line is actually any comfort because Labour doesn't need to win back many votes for Ed to have a majority next time out.

    There seems to be a major problem going on in the blue camp of confusing the effort you have to put in to keeping the media narrative positive with the likely reality (I'm sure that no Tory-leaning posters on PB would fall into that trap, of course...). The fact that Ed's going to cruise to an ignominious victory gives a good spin narrative but it doesn't really address the central problem of being kicked out of No. 10.

    I would not be that confiodent about Labour given these results. However, what they do indicate is that there may be a pretty strong core to Labour's vote and that it has increased since 2010. After all, why bother with Labour now if you are just dissatisfied and want to send a message to the Tories? If you wanted to do that, you could vote UKIP.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    You write as though you have bitter experience!
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

  • samsam Posts: 727
    Just been invited to my first UKIP local meeting in Hornchurch on June 11th.. I am becoming on old biddy!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    If UKIP get 10-15% the Tories will be massacred, will they follow Dave into the flames?

    I thought the spin was that another hung parliament was somehow on the cards with a strong UKIP voteshare at the GE?

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013
    UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
    Politics is dying because of mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Did he ever get started?

    Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
    It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn. ;)

    is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?

  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    Just watching the Vote 2013 programme on BBC2.

    Why no UKIP person on the panel?

    Clear example of BBC bias.....?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @georgeeaton 1m
    Tories have lost 247 seats so far. Look likely to lose more than 310 forecast by Rallings and Thrasher.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Cumbria stays NOC.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Nottinghamshire so far 8 seats declared;

    3 to LD, 4 to labour and 1 to Independent. Only one of those a change of hands, Retford West Labour gain from Tories.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RobD said:

    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Kent has 84 seats, 43 for majority!

    So it does!

    The 43 is apparently the number yet to declare.

    The table of results are obscured by an interactive map: when the site loads which is about one in ten times of asking.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    MikeSmithson said:

    You write as though you have bitter experience!

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

    Not bitter experience, more a burning experience.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    edited May 2013
    LAB Gain Derbyshire!

    PB beating BBC as per usual! ;)
  • samsam Posts: 727
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
    Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

    Local referendums are one of their policies that may engage the public more than the other parties have managed

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    SouthamObserver said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Cameron finished?

    Did he ever get started?

    Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
    It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn. ;)

    is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?

    Resurging would be more accurate. They were still crawling up, albeit more erratically, before then. Osbrowne's omnishambes just ensured it's steady continuation and increasing strength.


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon
    Cameron's Tories forced to consider local pacts with party they dubbed "clowns". politics http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-surge-nigel-farages-party-lays-claim-to-being-third-force-in-british-politics-8602110.html …

    But where, tim?

    There hasn't been a council that has finished its declarations where a Con-UKIP pact is required.

    Unless I have missed something, which is highly likely.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    AveryLP said:



    So it does!

    The 43 is apparently the number yet to declare.

    The table of results are obscured by an interactive map: when the site loads which is about one in ten times of asking.

    Yeah some of the websites are bad. Northumberland is particularly bad!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Just watching the Vote 2013 programme on BBC2.

    Why no UKIP person on the panel?

    Clear example of BBC bias.....?

    How many UKIP reps are there? They need to find a few faces.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited May 2013
    MikeSmithson said:

    @georgeeaton 1m
    Tories have lost 247 seats so far. Look likely to lose more than 310 forecast by Rallings and Thrasher.

    It's all gone wrong from R & T since they were praised by the Guardian.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/01/in-praise-rallings-thrasher?INTCMP=SRCH
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Neil

    "What does it matter? UKIP can no more do anything about those of us immigrants who are already here legally than they can about Bulgarians and Romanians who might come next year."

    Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    Nigels authenticity vs Daves posturing...

    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 31m

    at half eleven RT @VMcAVSKY: Say what you like about #ukip's @Nigel_Farage but he can down a pint quickly https://twitter.com/VMcAVSKY/status/330271489825837056/photo/1


    http://i2.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article252797.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/david-cameron-drinks-guinness-while-samantha-holds-florence-pic-conservative-party-545377696.jpg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Derbyshire!

    PB beating BBC as per usual! ;)

    I'm going to be disappointed if UKIP don't win a single ward here. Its like theres been a giant party all over the rest of the country and Derbyshire has missed it xD
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,251
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
    Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

    Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

    Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

    Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Martin Watson ‏@Em_Brouhaha

    Cameron mishandled EU referendum, Miliband's mishandling opposition.Clegg is allowed on the sofa if he's a good dog.UKIP success no surprise
    *chortle*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    The one thing UKIP have to do is, properly vet all their candidates in time for next years elections.

    They can't afford to get duffed up over their candidates in 12 months time.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The Tory leader of Warwickshire council has lost his seat to the Greens. The Greens have also taken a seat from Labour. Labour seem to be doing quite well in Warwick and North Leamington, which may be a worry for the sitting Tory MP, who does not have a huge majority. Southam stays resolutely blue!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sadiq Khan is looking more like Chris Huhne everyday...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    I have a hunch that split ballots are giving counters a headache in my ward ^^;;
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.

    Rather a chilling statement in my book.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    According to RobD's brilliant spreadsheet, of the 72 seats won by UKIP so far, 55 of these or 76% relate to the following 6 counties:

    Bucks ..... 6
    Essex ..... 9
    Hants .....10
    Kent ....... 6
    Lincs ......16
    Norfolk ....8
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

    Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?
    I have no idea, Plato. I just do the jokes.

    Perhaps I should be switching to UKIP?

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    Labour gain Frome Vale from Tory in Bristol by 35 - first result with a UKIP vote c. 500.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Interesting obs from an STV man

    Harry Smith @stvharry
    I've been around a few shires in recent days. Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Nottinghamshire so far 14 seats declared;

    4 to LD, 7 to labour, 2 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

    Only one of those a change of hands, Retford West Labour gain from Tories.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
    Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

    Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

    Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.
    "Liked"

    Said with nostalgia for the past.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

    A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

    Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?
    No, Kent has 84 seats.

    Swale West is my ward. Disappointed to see Ukip in here (although I am aware of Mike Baldock - ex Labour - and he's not a bad chap).

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Are the BBC not going to bother with a national vote share projection this year? Raw vote shares in 'key wards' are totally meaningless.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

    Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

    I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

    Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

    From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.

    I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    WHAT!

    Ravi Bopara gets surprise call-up for England's Champions Trophy squad

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/may/03/ravi-bopara-england-champions-trophy
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots."

    Speaks volumes about a party that has the words 'United Kingdom' in its title.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    peter_from_putney said:

    According to RobD's brilliant spreadsheet, of the 72 seats won by UKIP so far, 55 of these or 76% relate to the following 6 counties:

    Bucks ..... 6
    Essex ..... 9
    Hants .....10
    Kent ....... 6
    Lincs ......16
    Norfolk ....8

    Lincolnshire was a particular triumph for the inept tory councillors there after they followed the master strategy of banging on about the Cammies Cast Iron EU referendum pledge.
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    UKIP's sensational result in Lincolnshire pic.twitter.com/r5KTS5bile

    "Motion from Lincolnshire Conservatives calling for EU referendum presented in Brussels

    A motion from Lincolnshire Conservatives calling for a referendum on EU membership has been presented in Brussels.

    County council leader Martin Hill is writing to David Cameron, calling for a national poll Britain's membership of the European Union in 2014."

    http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/Motion-Lincolnshire-Conservatives-calling-EU/story-17814817-detail/story.html#axzz2SDS5wQ46

    What a surprise that was. ;^ )
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Thought I'd post the link again to the spreadsheet for the new thread (last post got deleted, or didn't make it through)

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0

    Consistently beating the BBC for declarations ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
    UKIP to beat Labour on vote share?! "@BBCPolitics: Latest BBC estimate based on key wards: Con 35%, UKIP 22%, Lab 20%, LibDem 14%"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Staffordshire results index:

    http://moderngov.staffordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=15&RPID=31862300
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    edited May 2013
    CON hold Buckinghamshire.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

    Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
    Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

    Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?
    KCC site says 52 declared with 32 remaining. Con on 33 (11 losses). This is one off RobD's total of 83.

    If KCC are right then 43 is majority. If RodD then 42.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

    A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.

    Don't mention Andy Burnham, Mid Staffs Hospital Deaths or administration or the lovely, lovely uncaring nurses.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Polruan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

    Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

    I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

    Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

    From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.

    I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.
    Surely you meant to write "colossal midget", Polruan?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    rcs1000 said:



    Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

    Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

    Robert, I think there are ways to lower energy prices, deregulate the market fully and seed a bunch of energy startups, remove all of the green subsidies and ramp up gas power and shale gas extraction. It worked for the US.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    I think Labour won the popular vote in Cannck Chase by about 2,800 votes over the Tories which is okay for them but nothing spectacular.

    The Tories will win the most votes in Tamworth, a seat Labour need for a decent majority.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Nick Robinson is being utterly thick here.
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    "TheScreamingEagles">WHAT!

    Ravi Bopara gets surprise call-up for England's Champions Trophy squad

    It's one of those crazy days when anything can happen!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Nottinghamshire so far 20 seats declared;

    4 to LD, 11 to labour, 4 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

    Three changes, all going to Labour. Two from Tories and one from Lib Dems.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    dr_spyn said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

    A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.

    Don't mention Andy Burnham, Mid Staffs Hospital Deaths or administration or the lovely, lovely uncaring nurses.
    The people there don't think the nurses are uncaring, and certainly don't want their hospital shut or put in administration for political reasons
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    CON hold Devon!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    JamesKelly said:

    "Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots."

    Speaks volumes about a party that has the words 'United Kingdom' in its title.

    Speaks volumes that the "serial labour voting" "floating voter" seems to have lost her taste for Cameron after surprising nobody by declaring she would vote for Cammie in the locals.

    ;^ )
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JamesKelly said:

    Are the BBC not going to bother with a national vote share projection this year? Raw vote shares in 'key wards' are totally meaningless.

    Not enough results yet for a projection probably...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    @Polruan: there was something in one of the other papers which suggested that Labour was likely - on current predictions - to get in with a wafer-thin majority. That's not a comfortable position for them to be in. A Labour version of the Major government of 1992-1997 is hardly something to look forward to.

    One thought on UKIP: the SDP managed at least 2 by-election wins. So far UKIP have managed zero. Until they can actually win an MP their rise is not quite as exceptional as all that, even with the likely effect on the Tory vote.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Could, could labour come third??

    Amazing, astounding result if that happens.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,767
    Beeston S goes Labour as I predicted
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    The UKIP bloke on BBC far more impressive than the three stooges in the studio. Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding tsk tsk

    Sadiq Khan speaking quite well actually and being gracious to UKIP, Labour obviously learning from Tories mistakes
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    FPT -
    TheScreamingEagles said: I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.
    David Herdson said:I'm assuming that that means you think they'll be here to stay, not personally being an expert in STDs. If so, I'm far from convinced that it's necessarily the case and depends very much on how things pan out.

    UKIP are performing spectacularly well not because of years of toil on the ground but because of a national swing based party on what the national party is, and to a greater extent, on what they're not. This is more akin to the Greens in 1989 rather than the slow but relentless rise of the Liberals or SNP. At the moment.
    Seant said: This is rubbish. UKIP have been doing very well in Europe - the second most important election after the GE - for about a decade. The Greens were a flash in the pan - they came and went. UKIP have been a rising tide.

    Moreover, UKIP's base in Strasbourg gives them a political heartland: they will not do badly in European elections until we have a referendum. So their continuing salience is almost assured.
    But that's precisely the point: until now, UKIP has been a single-issue (or single-election) party. Today marks the point where they have jumped into the mainstream. That they will continue to do well in European elections, subject to a major change in Britain's relationship or attitude to the EU, is certain; that they will remain in the mainstream is not.

    That said, and as I said in my original post, UKIP *are* here to stay unless the three parties can provide positive reasons to pull back the type of voters that voted for them in 1992 and 1997 and are no longer doing so - and are increasingly finding UKIP an attractive alternative.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP could have some very good results to look forward to in Cambridgeshire this afternoon...
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Cyclefree said:

    @Polruan: there was something in one of the other papers which suggested that Labour was likely - on current predictions - to get in with a wafer-thin majority. That's not a comfortable position for them to be in. A Labour version of the Major government of 1992-1997 is hardly something to look forward to.

    One thought on UKIP: the SDP managed at least 2 by-election wins. So far UKIP have managed zero. Until they can actually win an MP their rise is not quite as exceptional as all that, even with the likely effect on the Tory vote.



    Didnt they have incumbents?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Slackbladder said:

    Could, could labour come third??

    Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

    Not when you consider the areas of the country voting.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    FPT -
    SeanT said:
    When will we see a Tory MP do exactly this? -

    KM Sittingbourne ‏@KMSittingbourne 3m
    Adrian Crowther wins Sheppey for UKIP after defecting from Tories. Tory Ken Pugh comes second
    That is a question worthy of a thread in its own right. IMO, the prospects of a retiring / deselected MP defecting are high - better than evens. The prospects of an MP who seeks re-election defecting are much lower, not least because UKIP said recently that they wouldn't challenge MPs who were unambiguous Better Off Out-ers. Whether these elections will cause UKIP to revise that policy is open to question. It's a choice between attempting to force sitting MPs into supporting UKIPs flagship policy and running as big a slate as possible.

    If I was advising Farage, I'd make my number one political objective getting into the leaders' debates in 2015 and one strategy to doing that would be to run MPs in every constituency in the country. For all that the 'stand back for EU Independence' makes sense to a second-tier party, these elections have proven UKIPs ability to become a first-tier party and if they want to be treated like one, they need to behave like one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    Slackbladder said:

    Could, could labour come third??

    Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

    Yes but remember Labour's best areas weren't voting yesterday so the national projection will add about 10 percentage points to whatever share Labour get in the areas being contested in these elections.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)

    Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )

    Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)

    Con 26
    Lab 20
    LD 9
    Green 2
    Other 3

    Well hung...

    Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cambridgeshire CC ‏@CambsCC 11m

    Conservative Mike Rouse takes Ely North and East from Lib Dems #cccelection
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Slackbladder said:

    Could, could labour come third??

    Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

    It's certainly looking possible - their targets aren't coming in, I'm really surprised at this lacklustre performance, the Kippers are bypassing Labour and hoovering up the seats from a standing start.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m

    Good point from Rob Ford. @robfordmancs Lab doing better in working class areas - but so are UKIP. Farage may have stalled a bigger comeback
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
    Tories lose Warwickshire to NoC: Con 24 -13 Lab 18 +12 LD 9 -3 Ind 3 +2 Green 2 +2 #LE2013 #Vote2013
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,251
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

    Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

    Robert, I think there are ways to lower energy prices, deregulate the market fully and seed a bunch of energy startups, remove all of the green subsidies and ramp up gas power and shale gas extraction. It worked for the US.
    @MaxPB

    The UK is fundamentally different in that we pay a world market price for our gas. The US is an anomaly because there is currently no way to export gas. So any as produced there gets only a local market price.

    However, over the next five years there are going to be substantial energy export facilities built in North America. So LNG will be exported from Kitimat to Asia, and from Sabine Pass and Lake Charles to the UK and Europe. This will lower the world market price for gas, but increase the US price. (Why would you sell an mmcf of gas for $4.20 to a buyer in Houston, when you can sell for $14.20 to a buyer in Huddersfield?)

    There is no reasonable possibility that we will see enough shale gas produced in the UK to make us an energy exporter. But, even if we did, then the guys drilling in the UK - like Quadrilla - would sell their excess gas to countries in Europe that import, such as Germany or Ireland. (Although Ireland may soon become a gas exporter.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Come on BBC, Devon can be called, as can Buckinghamshire!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Labour coming third in the popular vote may not be a true reflection of their support if it's true that Labour areas aren't voting. But it may have some effect on their morale.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?"

    That UKIP are able to have a different immigration policy from the others because they would leave the EU.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    !!!!!!

    Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
    Where UKIP and Labour are both standing, UKIP have taken 470,000 votes to Labour's 310,000.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    AndyJS said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Could, could labour come third??

    Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

    Yes but remember Labour's best areas weren't voting yesterday so the national projection will add about 10 percentage points to whatever share Labour get in the areas being contested in these elections.
    Even so...it would be amazing. UKIP are a proper political force now.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Green gain in Surrey - watch out JohnO ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Liz Crudgington @freelanceliz
    Lib Dems in 5th place in Herne and Sturry #KCCelections with 169 votes. Sitting Tory holds with 1,452. Ukip 1,086, Lab 590 Green 217
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