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Norfolk so far is amazing -was rock solid Tory in 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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GIN1138

Is Cameron finished?

TheScreamingEagles

I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

Mick_Pork

"BBC News (UK) ‏@BBCNews

#vote2013: Bristol council remains in no overall control: Lib Dems lose 6 seats, Greens up 2, Conservatives up 2, Labour up 1, Indep up 1

Sean_F

Pace Harry Hayfield, Warwickshire is almost certainly heading for NOC, currently Con 22, Lab 20, Lib Dem 5, Others 2, 11 seats left to declare.

Mick_Pork

LOL

The DM Reporter ‏@DMReporter

NICK CLEGG: “Naturally I’m disappointed that we’re less popular than the BNP, which is why I’m launching our new ‘White is Right’ campaign.”

TheScreamingEagles

So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

TheScreamingEagles

FPT - David Herdson.

Yes, I think UKIP are here to stay.

I think their supporters really are enjoying the moment, they've tapped into the anti-politics mood.

As the above graphic shows, they're picking up 5 votes for every 2 Labour is picking up.

I remember Wells 2010 for how volatile UKIP candidates can be, I think that might be an omen.

Mick_Pork

"Jonah Fallon ‏@Jonah_Fallon

UKIP gained 9 seats for Essex County Council. Tories lost 18, Labour gained 8, Green Party gained 2 and Residents Association Grabbed 1!"

peter_from_putney

FPT

PtP, etc.

Ladbrokes' odds of 7/2 against UKIP winning a 10%-15% share of the vote at the next GE equates to a probability factor of 22%. Based on today's election results, common sense surely suggests this should be nearer 33%, i.e a 2/1 shot.

Polruan

GIN1138 said:

Is Cameron finished?

Probably only in June 2015 still. It all depends on whether the party carries on believing its own media spin - that is, it's appropriate to try and spin these results by insisting that Labour also has problems, isn't winning back enough votes it lost between 2005 and 2010 and so on; but it's not a very good idea to privately believe that that line is actually any comfort because Labour doesn't need to win back many votes for Ed to have a majority next time out.

There seems to be a major problem going on in the blue camp of confusing the effort you have to put in to keeping the media narrative positive with the likely reality (I'm sure that no Tory-leaning posters on PB would fall into that trap, of course...). The fact that Ed's going to cruise to an ignominious victory gives a good spin narrative but it doesn't really address the central problem of being kicked out of No. 10.

Pulpstar

Good result for Labour in Matlock, go from not standing to winning the seats by ~28 votes from CON. UKIP only 4th, LD from 1st with 55% of the vote to third.

MaxPB

The other thing I find interesting is that the Greens didn't manage to increase their vote share, with so many disaffected lefty former Lib Dems one would think that the Greens would have seen a small uptick in their vote share. So chalk up another party that UKIP are affecting.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

Mick_Pork

tim said:

GIN1138 said:

Is Cameron finished?

Did he ever get started?

Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn.

AveryLP

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

RobD

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Kent has 84 seats, 43 for majority!

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

PtP, etc.

Ladbrokes' odds of 7/2 against UKIP winning a 10%-15% share of the vote at the next GE equates to a probability factor of 22%. Based on today's election results, common sense surely suggests this should be nearer 33%, i.e a 2/1 shot.

Peter, what do you think of this market (with Shadsy)

UKIP To Win At Least One Seat In The Next General Election 6/4

To not win 1/2

SouthamObserver

Polruan said:

GIN1138 said:

Is Cameron finished?

Probably only in June 2015 still. It all depends on whether the party carries on believing its own media spin - that is, it's appropriate to try and spin these results by insisting that Labour also has problems, isn't winning back enough votes it lost between 2005 and 2010 and so on; but it's not a very good idea to privately believe that that line is actually any comfort because Labour doesn't need to win back many votes for Ed to have a majority next time out.

There seems to be a major problem going on in the blue camp of confusing the effort you have to put in to keeping the media narrative positive with the likely reality (I'm sure that no Tory-leaning posters on PB would fall into that trap, of course...). The fact that Ed's going to cruise to an ignominious victory gives a good spin narrative but it doesn't really address the central problem of being kicked out of No. 10.

I would not be that confiodent about Labour given these results. However, what they do indicate is that there may be a pretty strong core to Labour's vote and that it has increased since 2010. After all, why bother with Labour now if you are just dissatisfied and want to send a message to the Tories? If you wanted to do that, you could vote UKIP.

MikeSmithson

You write as though you have bitter experience!

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

sam

Just been invited to my first UKIP local meeting in Hornchurch on June 11th.. I am becoming on old biddy!

Mick_Pork

tim said:

If UKIP get 10-15% the Tories will be massacred, will they follow Dave into the flames?

I thought the spin was that another hung parliament was somehow on the cards with a strong UKIP voteshare at the GE?

MonikerDiCanio

UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
Politics is dying because of mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

SouthamObserver

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

GIN1138 said:

Is Cameron finished?

Did he ever get started?

Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn.

is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?

DoubleCarpet

Just watching the Vote 2013 programme on BBC2.

Why no UKIP person on the panel?

Clear example of BBC bias.....?

MikeSmithson

@georgeeaton 1m
Tories have lost 247 seats so far. Look likely to lose more than 310 forecast by Rallings and Thrasher.

RobD

Cumbria stays NOC.

Richard_Tyndall

Nottinghamshire so far 8 seats declared;

3 to LD, 4 to labour and 1 to Independent. Only one of those a change of hands, Retford West Labour gain from Tories.

AveryLP

RobD said:

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Kent has 84 seats, 43 for majority!

So it does!

The 43 is apparently the number yet to declare.

The table of results are obscured by an interactive map: when the site loads which is about one in ten times of asking.

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

You write as though you have bitter experience!

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

Not bitter experience, more a burning experience.

RobD

LAB Gain Derbyshire!

PB beating BBC as per usual!

sam

MonikerDiCanio said:

UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

Local referendums are one of their policies that may engage the public more than the other parties have managed

Mick_Pork

SouthamObserver said:

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

GIN1138 said:

Is Cameron finished?

Did he ever get started?

Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did.
It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn.

is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?

Resurging would be more accurate. They were still crawling up, albeit more erratically, before then. Osbrowne's omnishambes just ensured it's steady continuation and increasing strength.

AveryLP

tim said:

Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon
Cameron's Tories forced to consider local pacts with party they dubbed "clowns". politics http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-surge-nigel-farages-party-lays-claim-to-being-third-force-in-british-politics-8602110.html …

But where, tim?

There hasn't been a council that has finished its declarations where a Con-UKIP pact is required.

Unless I have missed something, which is highly likely.

RobD

AveryLP said:

So it does!

The 43 is apparently the number yet to declare.

The table of results are obscured by an interactive map: when the site loads which is about one in ten times of asking.

Yeah some of the websites are bad. Northumberland is particularly bad!

SouthamObserver

DoubleCarpet said:

Just watching the Vote 2013 programme on BBC2.

Why no UKIP person on the panel?

Clear example of BBC bias.....?

How many UKIP reps are there? They need to find a few faces.

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

@georgeeaton 1m
Tories have lost 247 seats so far. Look likely to lose more than 310 forecast by Rallings and Thrasher.

It's all gone wrong from R & T since they were praised by the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/01/in-praise-rallings-thrasher?INTCMP=SRCH

Socrates

@Neil

"What does it matter? UKIP can no more do anything about those of us immigrants who are already here legally than they can about Bulgarians and Romanians who might come next year."

Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.

sam

Nigels authenticity vs Daves posturing...

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 31m

at half eleven RT @VMcAVSKY: Say what you like about #ukip's @Nigel_Farage but he can down a pint quickly https://twitter.com/VMcAVSKY/status/330271489825837056/photo/1


http://i2.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article252797.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/david-cameron-drinks-guinness-while-samantha-holds-florence-pic-conservative-party-545377696.jpg

Pulpstar

RobD said:

LAB Gain Derbyshire!

PB beating BBC as per usual!

I'm going to be disappointed if UKIP don't win a single ward here. Its like theres been a giant party all over the rest of the country and Derbyshire has missed it xD

rcs1000

MonikerDiCanio said:

UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

Plato

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?

Mick_Pork

Martin Watson ‏@Em_Brouhaha

Cameron mishandled EU referendum, Miliband's mishandling opposition.Clegg is allowed on the sofa if he's a good dog.UKIP success no surprise

*chortle*

TheScreamingEagles

The one thing UKIP have to do is, properly vet all their candidates in time for next years elections.

They can't afford to get duffed up over their candidates in 12 months time.

SouthamObserver

The Tory leader of Warwickshire council has lost his seat to the Greens. The Greens have also taken a seat from Labour. Labour seem to be doing quite well in Warwick and North Leamington, which may be a worry for the sitting Tory MP, who does not have a huge majority. Southam stays resolutely blue!

Plato

Sadiq Khan is looking more like Chris Huhne everyday...

Pulpstar

I have a hunch that split ballots are giving counters a headache in my ward ^^;;

taffys

Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.

Rather a chilling statement in my book.

peter_from_putney

According to RobD's brilliant spreadsheet, of the 72 seats won by UKIP so far, 55 of these or 76% relate to the following 6 counties:

Bucks ..... 6
Essex ..... 9
Hants .....10
Kent ....... 6
Lincs ......16
Norfolk ....8

AveryLP

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?

I have no idea, Plato. I just do the jokes.

Perhaps I should be switching to UKIP?

dr_spyn

Labour gain Frome Vale from Tory in Bristol by 35 - first result with a UKIP vote c. 500.

Plato

Interesting obs from an STV man

Harry Smith @stvharry
I've been around a few shires in recent days. Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots.

Richard_Tyndall

Nottinghamshire so far 14 seats declared;

4 to LD, 7 to labour, 2 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

Only one of those a change of hands, Retford West Labour gain from Tories.

AveryLP

rcs1000 said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

UKIP aren't anti-politics , they are , in fact , the only interesting political party in the UK.
Politics is dying because off mealy-mouthed bores and hypocrites like Miliband , Cameron and Clegg , they're the real anti-politicians.

Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

"Liked"

Said with nostalgia for the past.

AndyJS

Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.

BenM

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?

No, Kent has 84 seats.

Swale West is my ward. Disappointed to see Ukip in here (although I am aware of Mike Baldock - ex Labour - and he's not a bad chap).

JamesKelly

Are the BBC not going to bother with a national vote share projection this year? Raw vote shares in 'key wards' are totally meaningless.

Polruan

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.

I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.

TheScreamingEagles

WHAT!

Ravi Bopara gets surprise call-up for England's Champions Trophy squad

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/may/03/ravi-bopara-england-champions-trophy

JamesKelly

"Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots."

Speaks volumes about a party that has the words 'United Kingdom' in its title.

Mick_Pork

peter_from_putney said:

According to RobD's brilliant spreadsheet, of the 72 seats won by UKIP so far, 55 of these or 76% relate to the following 6 counties:

Bucks ..... 6
Essex ..... 9
Hants .....10
Kent ....... 6
Lincs ......16
Norfolk ....8

Lincolnshire was a particular triumph for the inept tory councillors there after they followed the master strategy of banging on about the Cammies Cast Iron EU referendum pledge.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

UKIP's sensational result in Lincolnshire pic.twitter.com/r5KTS5bile

"Motion from Lincolnshire Conservatives calling for EU referendum presented in Brussels

A motion from Lincolnshire Conservatives calling for a referendum on EU membership has been presented in Brussels.

County council leader Martin Hill is writing to David Cameron, calling for a national poll Britain's membership of the European Union in 2014."

http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/Motion-Lincolnshire-Conservatives-calling-EU/story-17814817-detail/story.html#axzz2SDS5wQ46

What a surprise that was. ;^ )

RobD

Thought I'd post the link again to the spreadsheet for the new thread (last post got deleted, or didn't make it through)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An6GzfHRNpYQdEhrZ3V5a0VSRWNEM3dyNktCQm1RSlE#gid=0

Consistently beating the BBC for declarations

Plato

James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
UKIP to beat Labour on vote share?! "@BBCPolitics: Latest BBC estimate based on key wards: Con 35%, UKIP 22%, Lab 20%, LibDem 14%"

AndyJS

Staffordshire results index:

http://moderngov.staffordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionElectionAreaResults.aspx?EID=15&RPID=31862300

RobD

CON hold Buckinghamshire.

AveryLP

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

Difficult to get the Kent CC website to load, but it looks as if after 41 of 43 sears declared, Tories have held Council with at least 28 seats.

Paul Francis @PaulOnPolitics
Rumours that Swale may see another UKip gain. Yes it has - Swale West. Great shock for Cllr Keith Ferrin - long standing Con #kccelection

Last seat to declare was a Con Hold - isn't it 32 seats to retain OC?

KCC site says 52 declared with 32 remaining. Con on 33 (11 losses). This is one off RobD's total of 83.

If KCC are right then 43 is majority. If RodD then 42.

dr_spyn

AndyJS said:

Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.

Don't mention Andy Burnham, Mid Staffs Hospital Deaths or administration or the lovely, lovely uncaring nurses.

AveryLP

Polruan said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?

Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.

I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.

Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p

From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.

I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.

Surely you meant to write "colossal midget", Polruan?

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

Robert, I think there are ways to lower energy prices, deregulate the market fully and seed a bunch of energy startups, remove all of the green subsidies and ramp up gas power and shale gas extraction. It worked for the US.

AndyJS

I think Labour won the popular vote in Cannck Chase by about 2,800 votes over the Tories which is okay for them but nothing spectacular.

The Tories will win the most votes in Tamworth, a seat Labour need for a decent majority.

JamesKelly

Nick Robinson is being utterly thick here.

RepublicanTory

"TheScreamingEagles">WHAT!

Ravi Bopara gets surprise call-up for England's Champions Trophy squad

It's one of those crazy days when anything can happen!

Richard_Tyndall

Nottinghamshire so far 20 seats declared;

4 to LD, 11 to labour, 4 to Tory and 1 to Independent.

Three changes, all going to Labour. Two from Tories and one from Lib Dems.

BenM

dr_spyn said:

AndyJS said:

Not looking good for Labour in Staffordshire according to Five Live.

A county with a large number of crucial marginal seats.

Don't mention Andy Burnham, Mid Staffs Hospital Deaths or administration or the lovely, lovely uncaring nurses.

The people there don't think the nurses are uncaring, and certainly don't want their hospital shut or put in administration for political reasons

RobD

CON hold Devon!

Mick_Pork

JamesKelly said:

"Interesting view on street - Farage speaks for England in the way Salmond does for Scots."

Speaks volumes about a party that has the words 'United Kingdom' in its title.

Speaks volumes that the "serial labour voting" "floating voter" seems to have lost her taste for Cameron after surprising nobody by declaring she would vote for Cammie in the locals.

;^ )

AndyJS

JamesKelly said:

Are the BBC not going to bother with a national vote share projection this year? Raw vote shares in 'key wards' are totally meaningless.

Not enough results yet for a projection probably...

Cyclefree

@Polruan: there was something in one of the other papers which suggested that Labour was likely - on current predictions - to get in with a wafer-thin majority. That's not a comfortable position for them to be in. A Labour version of the Major government of 1992-1997 is hardly something to look forward to.

One thought on UKIP: the SDP managed at least 2 by-election wins. So far UKIP have managed zero. Until they can actually win an MP their rise is not quite as exceptional as all that, even with the likely effect on the Tory vote.

Slackbladder

Could, could labour come third??

Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

NickPalmer

Beeston S goes Labour as I predicted

sam

The UKIP bloke on BBC far more impressive than the three stooges in the studio. Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding tsk tsk

Sadiq Khan speaking quite well actually and being gracious to UKIP, Labour obviously learning from Tories mistakes

david_herdson

FPT -

TheScreamingEagles said: I also get the feeling, now that UKIP have established themselves (in votes, if not seats) they're going to be as difficult to get rid off as herpes.

David Herdson said:I'm assuming that that means you think they'll be here to stay, not personally being an expert in STDs. If so, I'm far from convinced that it's necessarily the case and depends very much on how things pan out.

UKIP are performing spectacularly well not because of years of toil on the ground but because of a national swing based party on what the national party is, and to a greater extent, on what they're not. This is more akin to the Greens in 1989 rather than the slow but relentless rise of the Liberals or SNP. At the moment.

Seant said: This is rubbish. UKIP have been doing very well in Europe - the second most important election after the GE - for about a decade. The Greens were a flash in the pan - they came and went. UKIP have been a rising tide.

Moreover, UKIP's base in Strasbourg gives them a political heartland: they will not do badly in European elections until we have a referendum. So their continuing salience is almost assured.

But that's precisely the point: until now, UKIP has been a single-issue (or single-election) party. Today marks the point where they have jumped into the mainstream. That they will continue to do well in European elections, subject to a major change in Britain's relationship or attitude to the EU, is certain; that they will remain in the mainstream is not.

That said, and as I said in my original post, UKIP *are* here to stay unless the three parties can provide positive reasons to pull back the type of voters that voted for them in 1992 and 1997 and are no longer doing so - and are increasingly finding UKIP an attractive alternative.

AndyJS

UKIP could have some very good results to look forward to in Cambridgeshire this afternoon...

sam

Cyclefree said:

@Polruan: there was something in one of the other papers which suggested that Labour was likely - on current predictions - to get in with a wafer-thin majority. That's not a comfortable position for them to be in. A Labour version of the Major government of 1992-1997 is hardly something to look forward to.

One thought on UKIP: the SDP managed at least 2 by-election wins. So far UKIP have managed zero. Until they can actually win an MP their rise is not quite as exceptional as all that, even with the likely effect on the Tory vote.

Didnt they have incumbents?

Neil

Slackbladder said:

Could, could labour come third??

Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

Not when you consider the areas of the country voting.

david_herdson

FPT -

SeanT said:
When will we see a Tory MP do exactly this? -

KM Sittingbourne ‏@KMSittingbourne 3m
Adrian Crowther wins Sheppey for UKIP after defecting from Tories. Tory Ken Pugh comes second

That is a question worthy of a thread in its own right. IMO, the prospects of a retiring / deselected MP defecting are high - better than evens. The prospects of an MP who seeks re-election defecting are much lower, not least because UKIP said recently that they wouldn't challenge MPs who were unambiguous Better Off Out-ers. Whether these elections will cause UKIP to revise that policy is open to question. It's a choice between attempting to force sitting MPs into supporting UKIPs flagship policy and running as big a slate as possible.

If I was advising Farage, I'd make my number one political objective getting into the leaders' debates in 2015 and one strategy to doing that would be to run MPs in every constituency in the country. For all that the 'stand back for EU Independence' makes sense to a second-tier party, these elections have proven UKIPs ability to become a first-tier party and if they want to be treated like one, they need to behave like one.

AndyJS

Slackbladder said:

Could, could labour come third??

Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

Yes but remember Labour's best areas weren't voting yesterday so the national projection will add about 10 percentage points to whatever share Labour get in the areas being contested in these elections.

JonC

Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)

Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )

Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)

Con 26
Lab 20
LD 9
Green 2
Other 3

Well hung...

Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though

TGOHF

Cambridgeshire CC ‏@CambsCC 11m

Conservative Mike Rouse takes Ely North and East from Lib Dems #cccelection

Plato

Slackbladder said:

Could, could labour come third??

Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

It's certainly looking possible - their targets aren't coming in, I'm really surprised at this lacklustre performance, the Kippers are bypassing Labour and hoovering up the seats from a standing start.

TheScreamingEagles

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m

Good point from Rob Ford. @robfordmancs Lab doing better in working class areas - but so are UKIP. Farage may have stalled a bigger comeback

Morris_Dancer

What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?

Plato

Politico Daily @Politico_Daily
Tories lose Warwickshire to NoC: Con 24 -13 Lab 18 +12 LD 9 -3 Ind 3 +2 Green 2 +2 #LE2013 #Vote2013

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Yet MonikerDiCanio, they promise affordable energy prices, something that is not in their (or any other politicians') power to implement.

Farage and UKIP are benefiting from the same 'we are different' effect that the LibDems got in 2010. It is possible this will - over the next 10 years - lead them all the way to Number 10 Downing Street. But they are all, still, fundamentally, politicians who make promises that are not in their power to implement.

Robert, I think there are ways to lower energy prices, deregulate the market fully and seed a bunch of energy startups, remove all of the green subsidies and ramp up gas power and shale gas extraction. It worked for the US.

@MaxPB

The UK is fundamentally different in that we pay a world market price for our gas. The US is an anomaly because there is currently no way to export gas. So any as produced there gets only a local market price.

However, over the next five years there are going to be substantial energy export facilities built in North America. So LNG will be exported from Kitimat to Asia, and from Sabine Pass and Lake Charles to the UK and Europe. This will lower the world market price for gas, but increase the US price. (Why would you sell an mmcf of gas for $4.20 to a buyer in Houston, when you can sell for $14.20 to a buyer in Huddersfield?)

There is no reasonable possibility that we will see enough shale gas produced in the UK to make us an energy exporter. But, even if we did, then the guys drilling in the UK - like Quadrilla - would sell their excess gas to countries in Europe that import, such as Germany or Ireland. (Although Ireland may soon become a gas exporter.)

RobD

Come on BBC, Devon can be called, as can Buckinghamshire!

Cyclefree

Labour coming third in the popular vote may not be a true reflection of their support if it's true that Labour areas aren't voting. But it may have some effect on their morale.

JamesKelly

"What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?"

That UKIP are able to have a different immigration policy from the others because they would leave the EU.

Plato

!!!!!!

Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
Where UKIP and Labour are both standing, UKIP have taken 470,000 votes to Labour's 310,000.

Slackbladder

AndyJS said:

Slackbladder said:

Could, could labour come third??

Amazing, astounding result if that happens.

Yes but remember Labour's best areas weren't voting yesterday so the national projection will add about 10 percentage points to whatever share Labour get in the areas being contested in these elections.

Even so...it would be amazing. UKIP are a proper political force now.

Neil

Green gain in Surrey - watch out JohnO

Plato

Liz Crudgington @freelanceliz
Lib Dems in 5th place in Herne and Sturry #KCCelections with 169 votes. Sitting Tory holds with 1,452. Ukip 1,086, Lab 590 Green 217