I wish Kent COunty Conucil would stop messing with the server that hteir results are on. Every time I get on the results page has changed and now it tells us nothing!
Silly Iceland. Don't they know small nations don't have enough weight to sign these things? They certainly having got the economic might to do it when one isn't in sight for the EU, which is more competitive because of its size...
I wonder if the rise of UKIP might provide the long term detox strategy that the Tories need in the anti-Tory parts of the country.
Labour and the left in general have spent almost all their time and energy for the last 50 years telling everyone how evil and nasty the Tories are and rely on people voting for them "to stop the Tories getting in". Now a new right-leaning party is hoovering up voters they're going to have to modify that tactic a bit. "The Tories are evil and er...so are UKIP as well" doesn't have quite the same ring to it.
More pithy stuff that I concur with from Mr Stanley
"...My mum’s a classic Labour voter: ie she didn’t bother to vote yesterday. I don’t write that in a snobby way – it’s a sad statement of fact. Back when I was a Labour stooge, we had terrible trouble trying to get our people out to the polling booths and we wasted hours conjuring up messages bright and bold enough to motivate them to abandon the sofa and do the decent thing. It was a lesson in the political importance of excitement.
And that’s why Ukip’s rise is such a problem for Ed Miliband. Yes, he won a lot a seats in the local elections and easily held South Shields. But, as Dan Hodges writes, the headlines are all about Ukip and the excitement is entirely on the Right of the political spectrum. For the Left, this situation is counter-intuitive. They thought that the Credit Crunch would ruin the reputation of the free market and revive Keynesianism. But they didn’t realise that while people do broadly despise banksters and the vampiric rich, they have equal contempt for the state and its managerial class. The Credit Crunch bred not socialism but nihilism. We don’t trust anyone anymore.
Ergo, Labour’s drift to social democracy hasn’t helped it. The politics of “nationalise the railways, school milk and free pottery classes for everyone” is out of date and out of touch. Not only does it overlook how much the ordinary Joe is getting stiffed by taxes and rising prices (don’t live in Britain if you want to smoke or drive a car) but it skirts the issues that really boil the blood: violent crime, the despoiling of the countryside, old people left to die in careless NHS hospitals, and the price tag of mass immigration. Miliband is focusing his attention on the wrong side of the political debate, sewing up a Left-wing vote that is shrinking fast.
Sky protection for a general election: Lab 325 Con 247 L/D 52 Oth 26
Not sure how Sky are doing that and whether you need to adjust for government recovery, but IIUC that's pretty much the same as you'd expect from Rod's by-election swing-back method (plus common sense for the LD score).
Sky claim it is an extrapolation of the known vote shares from yesterday's council elections.
So it does not take into account any 'swingback'.
A very dismal performance from Labour in the circumstances and indicative that a 2015 overall majority is very unlikely.
AND THE GOOD NEWS KEEPS COMING
looks like the blues aren't singing in Warwickshire Mr Pole.
Sky protection for a general election: Lab 325 Con 247 L/D 52 Oth 26
Not sure how Sky are doing that and whether you need to adjust for government recovery, but IIUC that's pretty much the same as you'd expect from Rod's by-election swing-back method (plus common sense for the LD score).
Sky claim it is an extrapolation of the known vote shares from yesterday's council elections.
So it does not take into account any 'swingback'.
A very dismal performance from Labour in the circumstances and indicative that a 2015 overall majority is very unlikely.
Can't really say that without knowing how they've done it...
I put forward a tentative theory that Norfolk Council wanting to build a large incinerator at vast cost has made a considerable voting impact throughout the county .I believe it is being sat upon by Eric Pickles at the moment. UKIP is on the march and took 8 seats from their 'right wing coalition partner' (2015)
Hooray, my wager a fortnight ago with a Tory candidate who retained his seat today against my reckoning of a NOC result makes for a good weekend - now if we can beat the Villians tomorrow and stay in the 'greatest league in the world' haha, my other wager from last October will come good.
Sky protection for a general election: Lab 325 Con 247 L/D 52 Oth 26
Not sure how Sky are doing that and whether you need to adjust for government recovery, but IIUC that's pretty much the same as you'd expect from Rod's by-election swing-back method (plus common sense for the LD score).
Sky claim it is an extrapolation of the known vote shares from yesterday's council elections.
So it does not take into account any 'swingback'.
A very dismal performance from Labour in the circumstances and indicative that a 2015 overall majority is very unlikely.
AND THE GOOD NEWS KEEPS COMING
looks like the blues aren't singing in Warwickshire Mr Pole.
My congrats to George.
I hear the duff bits were lost to Labour, Mr. Pole.
Time to take a leaf out of JK's book and start a separatist movement for Shakespeare country.
The Lib dem rate of losses is now the same as the tories at about 22% .
I never understood the theory that they were somehow going to do alright out of this. I suppose this is better than the proportions lost in the last two sets of locals since the Coalition was formed but it is not great. The tory losses are going to cost them relatively few councils given their absurd starting point. The Lib dems really are down to the core.
The Lib dem rate of losses is now the same as the tories at about 22% .
After 24 of 34 councils declared the BBC are showing the Conservatives down 22% and the LDs down 19%. But I do agree that the rate of LD losses is higher than most LD activists expected a few days ago.
Sky protection for a general election: Lab 325 Con 247 L/D 52 Oth 26
Not sure how Sky are doing that and whether you need to adjust for government recovery, but IIUC that's pretty much the same as you'd expect from Rod's by-election swing-back method (plus common sense for the LD score).
Sky claim it is an extrapolation of the known vote shares from yesterday's council elections.
So it does not take into account any 'swingback'.
A very dismal performance from Labour in the circumstances and indicative that a 2015 overall majority is very unlikely.
AND THE GOOD NEWS KEEPS COMING
looks like the blues aren't singing in Warwickshire Mr Pole.
My congrats to George.
I hear the duff bits were lost to Labour, Mr. Pole.
Time to take a leaf out of JK's book and start a separatist movement for Shakespeare country.
You can keep SO pour encourager les autres.
Ah the duff bits, you mean like North Warks where people actually do real work, and where until recently the blues controlled the council.
I'm sure the local MP Marcus Jones ( Con. ) will be delighted with your support.
Mark Wallace @wallaceme 12h Never let them tell you politics is divisive. Almost everyone is united in mirth at the Bridgwater South Lib Dem getting zero votes.
Labour and Davies are way ahead of everybody else according to BBC man. Davies asked to re-recheck first prefs because it's very tight between him and Lab. Every vote can count..even the ones in the wrong column
I suppose Con and others may transfer to him to keep Labour out. But if he's high, they have probably been squeezed in first prefs
Interesting. In that case, I'd expect Davies to win. When it's an independent / party run-off in an SV election, the independent invariably pulls in more support on transfers. That ought to be the case (without having seen the figures) this time as you'd think that a populist right-winger ought to do better from the eliminated candidates' supporters than a party-backed centre-left candidate.
Labour 32 (+15) Conservative 21 (+4) Liberal Democrat 11 (-15) Independent 3 (-4)
Cripes - LDs MInus 15?! And losing to both Lab and Tory? Is there a local scandal or something?
I've no local knowledge Plato, but guessing that if you have to fight 67 seats in one go with a seriously reduced activist base, Northumberland is about the hardest place in the county to do so.
I know ancient history is really a specialist subject on here but according to ye ancient BBC with 25 councils in out of 34 the tories are down 182. Not good but hardly armageddon. Losses look likely to be less than 250. Given the starting point the tories would have taken that, albeit they would not have wanted UKIP to get such a boost.
COBHAM Con Hold EAST MOLESEY AND ESHER Res Ass Gain(Con) HERSHAM Con Hold HINCHLEY WOOD, CLAYGATE AND OXSHOTT Con Hold THE DITTONS Res Ass Hold WALTON Res Ass Hold WALTON SOUTH AND OATLANDS Con Hold WEST MOLESEY Res Ass Hold WEYBRIDGE Con Hold
I'm begining to get the feeling Farage is a gifted politiican is because he's not a Politician. If you see what I mean.
The focusgroupthinky, weaselly, evasive, machine robotic crappiness of 90% of ur pols is wilting in the heat of a bit of openly spoken common sense.
Farage says the EU is a monster that is detroying wealth and democracy across Europe. Well DUH! Dave/Redward/Clegg/etc all just showing their toenails from out of Barroso's fundament.
Farage happy to admit he's bee to a lapdancing club and doesn't seem to have suffered - quite the opposite. Can you imagine how the liblabcon robotwats would have handled the same?
The Lib dem rate of losses is now the same as the tories at about 22% .
After 24 of 34 councils declared the BBC are showing the Conservatives down 22% and the LDs down 19%. But I do agree that the rate of LD losses is higher than most LD activists expected a few days ago.
After 25 results it is 23%!. I do agree it will bounce around and there may be some better results to come but jeez... They are being thrashed into fourth place on the popular vote as well.
Disaster. The Idle Toad party has lost its seat in Lancashire. What were the locals thinking? Who could resist voting for a party with a name like that?
LOL quick take any sharp implements away from Avery !
Leave my wit alone, Mr. Brooke.
How many councils will change principal colour as a result of these elections?
seriously you want to play the protest vote card Mr P. ? When a chap like me who even voted blue in the lost cause of 1997 changes his vote, you're neck deep in guano my friend.
I really don't know why Cameron wants to split the rightwing vote with that protest party of his.
I put forward a tentative theory that Norfolk Council wanting to build a large incinerator at vast cost has made a considerable voting impact throughout the county .I believe it is being sat upon by Eric Pickles at the moment. UKIP is on the march and took 8 seats from their 'right wing coalition partner' (2015)
Hooray, my wager a fortnight ago with a Tory candidate who retained his seat today against my reckoning of a NOC result makes for a good weekend - now if we can beat the Villians tomorrow and stay in the 'greatest league in the world' haha, my other wager from last October will come good.
So UKIP didn't do that well here either? Doesn't this somewhat knock Southam's East-West theory?
"1449: Collin Brewer, the independent Cornish councillor who said disabled children should be "put down", has been re-elected. Mr Brewer resigned from representing Wadebridge East in February, but decided to run again, saying he had a "good record" of service."
BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%
How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??
If it is indeed true (at tim keeps reminding us) that UKIP damages the Tories most of all, that is pretty disastrous for Labour, given that the protest element will subside in a GE.
Bugger.. my computer crashed, does anyone have the old link to the Kent CC website. I can't seem to find the tabulated results on their website anymore.
So let's imagine there's a little bit of swingback by 2015 and we end up with a Lib-Lab coalition. The Lib Dems would almost certainly demand STV as part of the deal. That means a very, very interesting 2020 election.
BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%.
How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??
But don't worry, within a week or so we will all be believing Yougov's version of the Labour lead again. 11% I think it was this morning? Snigger.
A seat projection's credibility (in advance of an election) is as good as the analysis or explanation that comes with it. If there were such a revolutionary set of vote shares, the only single answer to the question of how the seat totals would pan out is "it depends". From there, you'd need to do a number of scenarios, from UNS to proporational to targetted to some mixed version of all three, and provide a set of ranges for the total.
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
That rather shows Warwickshire up as a dank and dreary bunch of pessimists.
Time for Messrs. Brooke and Observer to move North to the sunlit uplands.
Nah it was the voters in Bedworth and Nuneaton (which look and feel like Northern scuzzy towns) which voted in loads of Labourites. the bits of Warwickshire which accept their status as bordering on the South of England were true blue
BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%
How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??
If it is indeed true (at tim keeps reminding us) that UKIP damages the Tories most of all, that is pretty disastrous for Labour, given that the protest element will subside in a GE.
The suggestion from the poll the other day that up to 16% they damaged the tories the most but after that the other parties caught up does seem consistent with these results. UKIP has undoubtedly hoovered up huge number of votes that would otherwise have gone to Labour midterm.
Where they go next, who knows? There are a lot of very disenchanted people out there. After all these were the one's who were sufficiently motivated to vote in locals. The majority were not even that enthusiastic about any of the choices.
Dr Eynon is a popular local GP, but with quite a mandate as Labour councillor. With Public Health now based at the County council offices, nice to have a Dr on board.
If the BBC rate of losses could be applied to the starting point then a straight extrapolation of the rates of change on the 2009 figures are C -349, Lab +204, LD -104. Not far off R&T forecast except for Labour!
BBC General Election Projection: LAB 29% CON 25% UKIP 23% LD 14%.
How the hell do you get a credible seat projection out of that??
But don't worry, within a week or so we will all be believing Yougov's version of the Labour lead again. 11% I think it was this morning? Snigger.
A seat projection's credibility (in advance of an election) is as good as the analysis or explanation that comes with it. If there were such a revolutionary set of vote shares, the only single answer to the question of how the seat totals would pan out is "it depends". From there, you'd need to do a number of scenarios, from UNS to proporational to targetted to some mixed version of all three, and provide a set of ranges for the total.
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
As a former SDP supporter in the 1987 election I know exactly what you mean. But you are right, if UKIP do anything like this we are off the map and anything could happen.
Comments
Confirmed: #ukip take seven of the #thanet seats #kccelection
Lab 1394
Con 1265
UKIP 524
Green 235
LD 154
https://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/Election2013/division/beeston-south-and-attenborough
2 gains in West Mansfield
Iceland and China enter a free trade agreement
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/business/global/16iht-iceland16.html?_r=0
Silly Iceland. Don't they know small nations don't have enough weight to sign these things? They certainly having got the economic might to do it when one isn't in sight for the EU, which is more competitive because of its size...
"...My mum’s a classic Labour voter: ie she didn’t bother to vote yesterday. I don’t write that in a snobby way – it’s a sad statement of fact. Back when I was a Labour stooge, we had terrible trouble trying to get our people out to the polling booths and we wasted hours conjuring up messages bright and bold enough to motivate them to abandon the sofa and do the decent thing. It was a lesson in the political importance of excitement.
And that’s why Ukip’s rise is such a problem for Ed Miliband. Yes, he won a lot a seats in the local elections and easily held South Shields. But, as Dan Hodges writes, the headlines are all about Ukip and the excitement is entirely on the Right of the political spectrum. For the Left, this situation is counter-intuitive. They thought that the Credit Crunch would ruin the reputation of the free market and revive Keynesianism. But they didn’t realise that while people do broadly despise banksters and the vampiric rich, they have equal contempt for the state and its managerial class. The Credit Crunch bred not socialism but nihilism. We don’t trust anyone anymore.
Ergo, Labour’s drift to social democracy hasn’t helped it. The politics of “nationalise the railways, school milk and free pottery classes for everyone” is out of date and out of touch. Not only does it overlook how much the ordinary Joe is getting stiffed by taxes and rising prices (don’t live in Britain if you want to smoke or drive a car) but it skirts the issues that really boil the blood: violent crime, the despoiling of the countryside, old people left to die in careless NHS hospitals, and the price tag of mass immigration. Miliband is focusing his attention on the wrong side of the political debate, sewing up a Left-wing vote that is shrinking fast.
Labour cannot afford to dismiss the rise of Ukip as a fratricidal war on the Right: it has to compete for the same level of excitement and public interest..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100215203/ed-miliband-needs-to-fear-ukip-too-right-wing-populism-is-in-the-ascendant/
Northumberland
Labour 32 (+15)
Conservative 21 (+4)
Liberal Democrat 11 (-15)
Independent 3 (-4)
Current vote shares in Staffordshire: Con 35% Lab 31% UKIP 24% LDs 4%. A Labour council from 1981 to 2009.
It seems at least 1 Lab gain in West Bridgford South after the 200 recounts
looks like the blues aren't singing in Warwickshire Mr Pole.
My congrats to George.
LDs have lost fewer seats than Con.
Does he realise Con are defending three times as many seats?
Things appear to be lurching Right as the LD vote disappears into oblivion.
2009 in brackets
Conservatives 40, 32.6% ( 60, 45.9% )
UKIP 15, 23.47% ( 1, 4.6% )
Labour 14, 22.75% ( 3, 13.5% )
LD 10 10.97% ( 13, 22.7% )
Green 4, 6.55% ( 7, 10.9% )
Ind 1 3.27% ( 0, 1.4%)
I put forward a tentative theory that Norfolk Council wanting to build a large incinerator at vast cost has made a considerable voting impact throughout the county .I believe it is being sat upon by Eric Pickles at the moment. UKIP is on the march and took 8 seats from their 'right wing coalition partner' (2015)
Hooray, my wager a fortnight ago with a Tory candidate who retained his seat today against my reckoning of a NOC result makes for a good weekend - now if we can beat the Villians tomorrow and stay in the 'greatest league in the world' haha, my other wager from last October will come good.
Time to take a leaf out of JK's book and start a separatist movement for Shakespeare country.
You can keep SO pour encourager les autres.
I never understood the theory that they were somehow going to do alright out of this. I suppose this is better than the proportions lost in the last two sets of locals since the Coalition was formed but it is not great. The tory losses are going to cost them relatively few councils given their absurd starting point. The Lib dems really are down to the core.
LD support in Northumberland was mainly in Labour areas so reaction to the coalition was always going to sink them there.
UKIP on 113.
I'm sure the local MP Marcus Jones ( Con. ) will be delighted with your support.
Is it honey for tea or is it tears before bedtime ??
Miliband's nose just doesn't seem to be functioning.
Farage's is small but projecting like Pinocchio's.
LOL quick take any sharp implements away from Avery !
COBHAM Con Hold
EAST MOLESEY AND ESHER Res Ass Gain(Con)
HERSHAM Con Hold
HINCHLEY WOOD, CLAYGATE AND OXSHOTT Con Hold
THE DITTONS Res Ass Hold
WALTON Res Ass Hold
WALTON SOUTH AND OATLANDS Con Hold
WEST MOLESEY Res Ass Hold
WEYBRIDGE Con Hold
The focusgroupthinky, weaselly, evasive, machine robotic crappiness of 90% of ur pols is wilting in the heat of a bit of openly spoken common sense.
Farage says the EU is a monster that is detroying wealth and democracy across Europe. Well DUH! Dave/Redward/Clegg/etc all just showing their toenails from out of Barroso's fundament.
Farage happy to admit he's bee to a lapdancing club and doesn't seem to have suffered - quite the opposite. Can you imagine how the liblabcon robotwats would have handled the same?
How many councils will change principal colour as a result of these elections?
Lab 29
Con 25
UKIP 23
LD 14
Lab lead by only 4% in MID TERM!
I really don't know why Cameron wants to split the rightwing vote with that protest party of his.
I thought you had gone No Overall Comment.
If the UKIP vote breaks back more to Con than Lab and then any swingback will lead to .........
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-22396064
https://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/Election2013/division/west-bridgford-central-and-south
But don't worry, within a week or so we will all be believing Yougov's version of the Labour lead again. 11% I think it was this morning? Snigger.
.........................................
Andrea - Thanks.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/330318425845035009/photo/1
UKIP only two points behind the Tories nationwide. Just stunning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240020
Time for Messrs. Brooke and Observer to move North to the sunlit uplands.
Not a bad result for the Blue Team.
They might not keep control this time.
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
Where is this FPTP advantage for the LDs? 1.4%?
Where they go next, who knows? There are a lot of very disenchanted people out there. After all these were the one's who were sufficiently motivated to vote in locals. The majority were not even that enthusiastic about any of the choices.
Good to see the BNP out in Coalville decisively, their candidate stood as a British Democrat and got less than 10% of the vote.
http://www.leics.gov.uk/index/your_council/local_democracy/aboutthecountycouncil/useyourvote/election_results/election_2013/election_2013_division/election_2013_coalville.htm?Division_ID=43
Dr Eynon is a popular local GP, but with quite a mandate as Labour councillor. With Public Health now based at the County council offices, nice to have a Dr on board.
If UKIP did poll 23% at a general election, it is possible that they might still fail to win a single seat if their vote were extremely uniform. At the other end, they might win upwards of fifty if they could concentrate their vote well enough. In reality, I think 12-20 would be the most likely range.
As a former SDP supporter in the 1987 election I know exactly what you mean. But you are right, if UKIP do anything like this we are off the map and anything could happen.
I see the blues were even pushed in to 3rd place in Witney.
Con 36%
Lab 27%
UKIP 24%
LD 4%
http://moderngov.staffordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=15&RPID=32042808