The BBC's projection is a bit odd because if UKIP are averaging 25% in contested seats you'd expect them to go a lot lower than the projected share of 23% once you include places like London, Scotland, Wales, Birmingham, etc.
I can't see UKIP only dropping 2 percentage points once you include those areas.
They'll be on about 2/3rds of that once Scotland,London, Wales and the Northern conurbations are accounted for
Yes but this BBC projection is supposed to have already taken into account how the whole country would have voted. They're saying that even with London, Scotland, Wales, etc, UKIP would be on 23%. That doesn't sound right to me.
Are you sure that's what it means? I haven't got the telly but looking at the numbers on the website I'm reading "national projected" as meaning "when all the local elections in the nation have finished counting".
Following delays from PP earlier, it's now high time for Ladbrokes to settle winning bets on UKIP winning >100 seats. According to Rob's brilliant spreadsheet they have now reached 140 seats.
I imagine that this market is going to cost the Magic Sign dear - this betting opportunity was well flagged on PB and the likes of OGH (by his own admission in this instance) and PtP don't exactly bet in conkers.
Sorry - my question should have been - you appear to be far ahead of the mainstream media outlets with your numbers..
I'm being naughty and including incomplete councils in my tallies. This means my change figures are wrong, but composition numbers are more up to date.
Will Nigel Farage be the candidate for skegness/boston or will he target a southern seat?
Well he's a Herne Bay boy. He's a South East MEP and just down the road in Thanet are two Conservative constituencies which have just returned 7 out of 8 UKIP candidates.
Not only that in Thanet South is a Roon loyalist named Laura Sandys who is drenched in Europhilia. Her father just happened to be one of the founders of the European Movement (Duncan Sandys) in the UK. How symbolic would it be for Farage to defeat his daughter?
I agree that it makes sense for Farage to stick the south and that suggestion seems as good as any. He should just pick early and dig in and stay dug in between now and May 2015. If he stays away from airplanes he might even do it.
Sorry - my question should have been - you appear to be far ahead of the mainstream media outlets with your numbers..
I'm being naughty and including incomplete councils in my tallies. This means my change figures are wrong, but composition numbers are more up to date.
Cool - no I prefer that - I guess that means that the losses in change figures for blue and yellow are the max they can be now - and will actually be less?
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver Green Leader @natalieben said they'd win more seats than UKIP. Greens on 16. UKIP on 108. Fringe vs. mainstream.
Aah! Revenge is sweet.
I'm not her biggest fan but I really doubt she said the Greens would win more seats in yesterday's elections (they're the weakest part of the electoral cycle for us). Surely she said we'd have more Cllrs in total than UKIP after yesterday's elections. Something that looks like a close run thing but will probably come to pass (though I'm missing a few councils so could be wrong).
I'm so sorry to disillusion you but the Aussi Greens chief did indeed say that the greens would gain more seats than UKIP. I know. I heard and saw her say that on TV a few nights ago.
Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?
Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.
All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
It's not just Slovaks picking sprouts: UKIP have done well in eastern areas less impacted by immigration. It is perhaps an archaic cultural thing, as I speculate on a Telegraph blog, where I shamelessly nicked Morris Dancer's "ukipalypse".
"Why is eastern England the cradle of English rebellion? That is more difficult to say"
It's fairly easy to say really, namely you're picking selectively to create a pattern (If you were really trying hard you could include Kett's rebellion etc). There are certain factors involved to do with the type of land (agricultural vs pastoral) but you could construct a similar pattern in the north (The Rising of the North being one of the most famous).
Or the West: the Cornish Rebellion, the Prayer Book Rebellion, the Western Rising etc. I'm note even sure how concrete this UKIP East-West split is. Sussex, Kent, Hampshire were all good performances from UKIP yet are the wrong side of the Danelaw line. They also did better in Cumbria than Northumbria.
I'm so sorry to disillusion you but the Aussi Greens chief did indeed say that the greens would gain more seats than UKIP. I know. I heard and saw her say that on TV a few nights ago.
Indeed, someone since posted the link. You can see why I thought it was too crazy a thing for anyone with any sense to say though.
Mr. Tokyo, thanks for posting that fascinating map. I knew the area around The Wash was previously swampy, but I was unaware of the Yorkshire swampiness.
It's also mildly amusing that when considering 21st century politics we're looking at the impact of a 9th century division.
Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?
Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.
All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
It's not just Slovaks picking sprouts: UKIP have done well in eastern areas less impacted by immigration. It is perhaps an archaic cultural thing, as I speculate on a Telegraph blog, where I shamelessly nicked Morris Dancer's "ukipalypse".
You miss possibly the most cricial event of all - the division of England into Wessex and Danelaw in the 9th century. The place names of eastern England are very different to those of the west, as are the accents (of course). Inheritance, land holding, all kinds of things were affected by the split, long after it ended - including, no doubt, how peope view the world. Alfred and Guthrum created a monster that Nigel Farage, with some help from Dave and George, has begun to reawaken. And there is nothing that EdM can do about it. We are going back to the future.
Amazingly, a genetic map of the UK shows that UKIP do best in areas of the most intense Anglo-Saxon settlement (not Viking):
That is interesting. But what is certain is that things developed very differently east and west of Watling Street. Perhaps it's more a case of who was in charge rather than who lived on the land. Even now, when you cross the A5 just past Rugby you see the place name style change almost immediately, along with the accent. I believe there are under 10 place names in the whole of England to the west of the A5 that have a Danish/Viking element, and most of them are within 10 miles of the border (Rugby is one of them). It's a different country.
Labour doing well where they need footsoldiers and resources.
Frankly it was a disgrace that in marginals in the midlands labour were spending nothing and having no footsoldiers while the conservatives were carpet bombing constituencies with people and leaflets.
Thank goodness I kept Nicky Morgans leaflets in 2010. I've already given some copies to UKIP who raise a smile when seeing how she has voted once in power.
It's strange that UKIP didn't pick up more seats in the South West. UKIP expected more there and and they'll be disappointed. Perhaps SeanT can give us an answer.
UKIP claiming 144 gains. Going to be perilously close to that symbolic 150.
An exceptional performance, from a standing start. When was the last local election like this? Where a party has gone from almost zero to 25% of the vote?
You need to look no further than Beppe Grillo and the Five Star Movement in Italy.
Party formed in 2009 and share of vote in 2013 Parliamentary elections 25.55% (Chamber of Deputies) and 23.79% (Senate).
Very similar phenomenon, except Farage is probably the better comic.
And the UK still has FPTP to protect us from the bond markets.
On that note I'm off to bed. Hope everyone enjoyed the spreadsheet idea! I think we beat the BBC to declaration for the majority of the councils !
Maybe for next year I'll have a bit more time in advance and I can have proper gains/losses programmed in, so we can get a sense of how things are moving with every single seat declaration, and not just council declaration!
Election 2015 midland marginals - Leicestershire; Labour would gain Leicestershire NW + Loughborough - Nottinghamshire; Labour would gain Broxtowe, Sherwood, - Derbyshire; Labour would gain Amber Valley, High Peak, Erewash, - Staffordshire; Labour would gain Cannock Chase and Stafford. - Lincolnshire; Labour would gain Lincoln - Warwickshire; Labour would gain Nuneaton, Warwickshire North, Leamington.
Looking at the Leics council scores, it does look as if Labour would win both of the Conservative marginals, Loughborough and less easily NW Leics.
A lot would depend on tactical voting, personal votes UKIP returners etc, but It does look likely that these bellwhether seats would change back to Labour. They were both Labour in 2005, so I would expect a Miliband Majority.
I'm so sorry to disillusion you but the Aussi Greens chief did indeed say that the greens would gain more seats than UKIP. I know. I heard and saw her say that on TV a few nights ago.
Indeed, someone since posted the link. You can see why I thought it was too crazy a thing for anyone with any sense to say though.
I thought she said they wouild have as many as UKIP after the election not gain as many?
An amazing day. Given everyone a headache I think.
For UKIP, how to maintain momentum and make inroads (given FPTP) before the moment passes.
For Labour, faced with the changing dynamics, how to hold on to that Brown + lefty lib dem coalition that will see them back in power.
The Tories have by far the most worries. UKIP splitting their vote unpredictably, Labour winning marginals, Lib Dems not budging against Tory assaults. A perfect storm, and I see no way out for them.
The Lib Dems, strangely, have the easiest task. Fight like cornered dogs to keep the incumbency / tactical vote intact.
On that note I'm off to bed. Hope everyone enjoyed the spreadsheet idea! I think we beat the BBC to declaration for the majority of the councils !
Maybe for next year I'll have a bit more time in advance and I can have proper gains/losses programmed in, so we can get a sense of how things are moving with every single seat declaration, and not just council declaration!
Many thanks for your efforts they are much appreciated!
Can I take the UKIP East/West divide as making up for my catastrophic Romney error?
Your obsession with a Romney win was a bit whimsical. Particularly, when it was reinforced by your visit to the States.
All is forgiven. I don't remember anyone else actually mentioning the East/West divide. What's behind it ? East Europeans settling numbers ?
It's not just Slovaks picking sprouts: UKIP have done well in eastern areas less impacted by immigration. It is perhaps an archaic cultural thing, as I speculate on a Telegraph blog, where I shamelessly nicked Morris Dancer's "ukipalypse".
You miss possibly the most cricial event of all - the division of England into Wessex and Danelaw in the 9th century. The place names of eastern England are very different to those of the west, as are the accents (of course). Inheritance, land holding, all kinds of things were affected by the split, long after it ended - including, no doubt, how peope view the world. Alfred and Guthrum created a monster that Nigel Farage, with some help from Dave and George, has begun to reawaken. And there is nothing that EdM can do about it. We are going back to the future.
Amazingly, a genetic map of the UK shows that UKIP do best in areas of the most intense Anglo-Saxon settlement (not Viking):
That is interesting. But what is certain is that things developed very differently east and west of Watling Street. Perhaps it's more a case of who was in charge rather than who lived on the land. Even now, when you cross the A5 just past Rugby you see the place name style change almost immediately, along with the accent. I believe there are under 10 place names in the whole of England to the west of the A5 that have a Danish/Viking element, and most of them are within 10 miles of the border (Rugby is one of them). It's a different country.
You can argue it several ways, but basically I agree with you that there is an East/West division, and it reflects - coincidentally or not - the intensity of Anglo-Saxon and Viking settlement in England.
UKIP and the Tories, sorry, Anglo-Saxon and Nordic genes are red. Whereas the Cornish are an entirely different genetic cluster, reflecting older patterns of settlement by Celts, Beaker people, and neolithic Iberians.
And even today Cornish politics are completely distinct from the rest of the country.
So my friend in Truro has today been elected independent councillor for Tregolls ward.... because a bunch of Basques migrated to Penzance just after the Ice Age, 10,000 years ago.
Fairly remarkable, really.
It's marvellous.
"The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose"
Following the Northamptonshire results closely as I was working there on polling day. The Tories have a stack of seats with wafer thin majorities. This suggests both UKIP and Labour have made a mess of their targeting, and both missed 3/4 seats they could have won. There are 5 seats still to come where the Lib Dems are in serious contention including Kingsthorpe South we were working yesterday.
The seat numbers are very flattering for the Tories given their vote share - looks like they have run a smart campaign.
I agree that it makes sense for Farage to stick the south and that suggestion seems as good as any. He should just pick early and dig in and stay dug in between now and May 2015. If he stays away from airplanes he might even do it.
They've got a bloke in Eastleigh already and whatever they're doing in Boston seems to be working fine as it is, so maybe he should try Folkestone.
And the minute I post that, Kingsthorpe South comes through as LD by 260 votes - very solid result given the amount of the ward that came in from a strongly Labour area.
So my friend in Truro has today been elected independent councillor for Tregolls ward.... because a bunch of Basques migrated to Penzance just after the Ice Age, 10,000 years ago.
Labour achieved a mighty 3% swing in Stevenage, compared to 2009. The results Labour got today are on a par with the results the Conservatives were getting in 1998-2002. Any improvement is nice, but it comes from a very low base, and really doesn't point to significant gains in the future.
It is going to be one hell of a spinathon on here for the next few days.
My own tuppence worth is that anyone spinning anything is talking bollocks. We are in completely uncharted territory. It's been a slap in the face for the same old same old. And FPTP must die.
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
Now where's the 'Like' or 'Agree' button when you need it?
Glad to see its not just the right cleaving to their delusions.....
Another article by a lefty saying what the Cons should or shouldn't do - but offers nothing for Labour than "hold fast comrades and we will win". Which is perfect frankly.
Mr. Observer, a few points in response: Labour have never won a majority with 29% of the vote People don't vote for parties. They vote for individuals A majority government is better for strong government and accountability to the electorate
Mr. Kelly, that's a good point (actually, I made it myself the other day but forgot about it). They'll have tons of councillors and if vetting's as poor as reported they might have some difficult stories surfacing.
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
Yep. This is UKIP's "moment". They've got to capitalise or they could easily slide back under the rock from whence they came.
That said, you'd clearly rather be in Nigel Farage's shoes tonight than David Cameron's.
Speaking of paper candidates, a LD activists coming back from Hampshire count posted that a UKIP candidate didn't ask for a recount in tight division because he didn't want to be elected.....
LibDems: Done ok, but only because they were facing Cons - seats results 'flatter to deceive'
Lab: Disappointing - difficult to argue made progress vs last local elections.
UKIP: 'Spectacular' - clearly well ahead of LibDems and only a bit behind Cons - have we seen a change to 4 party politics in England? Or do they do a 'Greens'?
Mr. Tokyo, thanks for posting that fascinating map. I knew the area around The Wash was previously swampy, but I was unaware of the Yorkshire swampiness.
It's also mildly amusing that when considering 21st century politics we're looking at the impact of a 9th century division.
Not really, we're looking at a correlation, and making wild guesses at causation.
Labour achieved a mighty 3% swing in Stevenage, compared to 2009. The results Labour got today are on a par with the results the Conservatives were getting in 1998-2002. Any improvement is nice, but it comes from a very low base, and really doesn't point to significant gains in the future.
Sean - trust me when I say this - there is a land/people north of stevenage. They call this land northern england.
In northern england there are tory mps. Based on results the tories would lose the following seats
Loughborough Leicestershire nw north warwickshire sherwood broxtowe lancaster/fleetwood morecambe/lunesdale weaver vale carlisle burnley nuneaton erewash blackpool north cannock cahse warwick north/leamington high peak rossendale/darwin lincoln south ribble stafford south derbyshire
Overall, I think the Conservatives will be somewhat relieved. Losing 320+ seats and control of 10 councils is not nice, of course, but it was from the massively high 2009 starting point when Labour was all but wiped out in these areas, and it could have been a lot worse. What's more, losing voters to UKIP is not as bad as losing voters to Labour, given the likelihood of getting a good proportion of them back in a GE.
However, I wouldn't expect the stuff about 'respecting what the voters said' to mean quite what people expect. The risk from UKIP's point of view will be that the ranks of rookie UKIP councillors do indeed include a fair smattering of fruitcakes and loons, or at least of the naive and inexperienced. Their opponents in the other three parties are unlikely to give them a free ride, whatever they say about respecting the people who voted UKIP, and the press will of course be looking for stories. Don't expect a sudden political ceasefire - the manoeuvering will involve attempting to prise UKIP voters away from the party, and to do that you use wedge issues.
Edit: Good Lord, I see I've just made much the same point as JamesKelly. This must be a first!
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
A good point, James.
These new UKIP councillors will need to keep their right arms in check and stay out of lap-dancing clubs.
There will be a Sun reporter tracking their every move.
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
Yep. This is UKIP's "moment". They've got to capitalise or they could easily slide back under the rock from whence they came.
That said, you'd clearly rather be in Nigel Farage's shoes tonight than David Cameron's.
You mean you would rather be wandering around Westminster looking for a photographer than Prime Minister?
Labour achieved a mighty 3% swing in Stevenage, compared to 2009. The results Labour got today are on a par with the results the Conservatives were getting in 1998-2002. Any improvement is nice, but it comes from a very low base, and really doesn't point to significant gains in the future.
Sean - trust me when I say this - there is a land/people north of stevenage. They call this land northern england.
In northern england there are tory mps. Based on results the tories would lose the following seats
Loughborough Leicestershire nw north warwickshire sherwood broxtowe lancaster/fleetwood morecambe/lunesdale weaver vale carlisle burnley nuneaton erewash blackpool north cannock cahse warwick north/leamington high peak rossendale/darwin lincoln south ribble stafford south derbyshire
Trust me when I say that it's not unheard of for opposition parties to achieve modest leads in marginal seats in mid-term elections, only to find that fall short in the subsequent general election. Labour's net gain in this round of elections was at the bottom end of expectations.
Look forward to seeing the transfer patterns! (Though there was a rump of TUSC / Save our Services / LD candidates that you would expect to break to Labour.)
So once again we can only infer that the tories really don't like or get this second go thing. If their votes had transferred to the independent in sizeable numbers it would have been a cakewalk.
Tories may be daft but they are consistent to their principles. Is that a good thing?
Mr. Observer, a few points in response: Labour have never won a majority with 29% of the vote People don't vote for parties. They vote for individuals A majority government is better for strong government and accountability to the electorate
Mr. Kelly, that's a good point (actually, I made it myself the other day but forgot about it). They'll have tons of councillors and if vetting's as poor as reported they might have some difficult stories surfacing.
People vote for parties Mr Dancer, de jure it may be individuals with party endorsement, but in practice the second column is many orders of magnitude more important than the first.
That's one million clowns, cranks, closet racists, fruitcakes, gadflies and loonies.
Well done, Ken & Dave.
It was a very stupid thing to say all that time ago - to not just apologise and get over it months ago by Cameron was even more idiotic. I've never been very keen on Ken for all his bonhomie - but his remarks were immensely arrogant, insulting and politically inept.
I still remember EdM and Gordon calling me a Flat Earther and Anti-Science for not buying AGW - that was over 3yrs ago -insulting voters on a personal level is very dangerous and it sticks.
I didn't vote yesterday - I can't recall the last time I didn't. Frankly, I'm delighted the Kippers did so well - I'd never vote for them but they're shaking up the smuggery of the Westminster Class.
"Presumably, James, as a Nat, you must be quite pleased at UKIP's performance?"
No, I was hoping they wouldn't do as well as this. It seems to me that the UKIP surge is disguising Labour's poor position - Labour might well have been outpolled by the Tories in these elections (in the projected figures) had UKIP not been around.
The projected national vote shares have "Tory victory in 2015" written all over them, but the challenge for the Yes campaign will be to get that message across. UKIP is complicating matters, but hopefully not too much.
That's one million clowns, cranks, closet racists, fruitcakes, gadflies and loonies.
Well done, Ken & Dave.
It was a very stupid thing to say all that time ago - to not just apologise and get over it months ago by Cameron was even more idiotic. I've never been very keen on Ken for all his bonhomie - but his remarks were immensely arrogant, insulting and politically inept.
I still remember EdM and Gordon calling me a Flat Earther and Anti-Science for not buying AGW - that was over 3yrs ago -insulting voters on a personal level is very dangerous and it sticks.
I didn't vote yesterday - I can't recall the last time I didn't. Frankly, I'm delighted the Kippers did so well - I'd never vote for them but they're shaking up the smuggery of the Westminster Class.
Sunil means "blue" - yet I'm toying with the idea of voting UKIP at least at the Euro Election next year.
That's one million clowns, cranks, closet racists, fruitcakes, gadflies and loonies.
Well done, Ken & Dave.
It was a very stupid thing to say all that time ago - to not just apologise and get over it months ago by Cameron was even more idiotic. I've never been very keen on Ken for all his bonhomie - but his remarks were immensely arrogant, insulting and politically inept.
I still remember EdM and Gordon calling me a Flat Earther and Anti-Science for not buying AGW - that was over 3yrs ago -insulting voters on a personal level is very dangerous and it sticks.
I didn't vote yesterday - I can't recall the last time I didn't. Frankly, I'm delighted the Kippers did so well - I'd never vote for them but they're shaking up the smuggery of the Westminster Class.
Sunil means "blue" - yet I'm toying with the idea of voting UKIP at least at the Euro Election next year.
There, I said it!
My MEP is Dan Hannan. I'll vote Tory in the Euros because of him as a personal vote.
In response to the UKIP Surge, the prime minister insisted he had ‘got the message’ and would now walk around with a combat knife clenched in his foaming jaws.
Mr Cameron added: “Most UKIP voters used to support the Conservatives. Or, perhaps, one of the other right wing parties… Anyway.
“We used to welcome candidates who would strip to the waist and photograph themselves in front of a Union Jack. Or use an incredibly dangerous dog as their Facebook photo.
“In our pursuit of the middle ground we decided that these people were strange and frightening and way, way too angry about an enormous number of things.
Although the Conservatives have suffered significant losses, they do still have more councillors than the other three parties combined. BBC running total (32/34) says that Labour have gained 2 councils, which must be below expectations.
Amongst all this election talk - this is divertingly amusing - the pix really is spot on.
"In London we have the Gherkin and the Cheesegrater, so-called for the skyscrapers' physical resemblance to their namesakes. So one must wonder what the people of China will begin to call the headquarters of the state newspaper, the People's Daily, that recently popped up in Beijing.
With its imposing oblong structure and rounded conical top, the tower has drawn more than a few comparisons with a certain part of the male anatomy. Criticism of the ongoing construction project has forced moderators on Sina Weibo - China's answer to Twitter - to censor those discussing the unique piece of architecture.
However, some comments have managed to sneak through the vetting process, allowing users to poke fun at the recent erection. "Of course the national mouthpiece should be imposing," said one user.
Comments
I imagine that this market is going to cost the Magic Sign dear - this betting opportunity was well flagged on PB and the likes of OGH (by his own admission in this instance) and PtP don't exactly bet in conkers.
Not only that in Thanet South is a Roon loyalist named Laura Sandys who is drenched in Europhilia. Her father just happened to be one of the founders of the European Movement (Duncan Sandys) in the UK. How symbolic would it be for Farage to defeat his daughter?
C -328, Lab +251, LD -126
Final tally #kent_cc: Conservatives 45, #UKIP 17, #labour 13, Lib Dems 7, Green 1, Independent 1 #kccelection
Yet another council now has Kippers as the Official Opposition - WTF? How many is that? Kent and Norfolk - any others?
Never mind ooor-Emma's on the job and she's promising to do what the Labour Council should have done....
....just as soon as she's moved from Jarrow....
I agree that it makes sense for Farage to stick the south and that suggestion seems as good as any. He should just pick early and dig in and stay dug in between now and May 2015. If he stays away from airplanes he might even do it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240025
What did Ios predict?
It's also mildly amusing that when considering 21st century politics we're looking at the impact of a 9th century division.
UKIP splitting the Tory vote.
Lib Dems holding their own against the Tories.
A perfect storm is brewing for the Blue Team.
Frankly it was a disgrace that in marginals in the midlands labour were spending nothing and having no footsoldiers while the conservatives were carpet bombing constituencies with people and leaflets.
Thank goodness I kept Nicky Morgans leaflets in 2010. I've already given some copies to UKIP who raise a smile when seeing how she has voted once in power.
Roger thinks he comes across like Adolf Hitler!!
One nation..
Party formed in 2009 and share of vote in 2013 Parliamentary elections 25.55% (Chamber of Deputies) and 23.79% (Senate).
Very similar phenomenon, except Farage is probably the better comic.
And the UK still has FPTP to protect us from the bond markets.
Maybe for next year I'll have a bit more time in advance and I can have proper gains/losses programmed in, so we can get a sense of how things are moving with every single seat declaration, and not just council declaration!
For UKIP, how to maintain momentum and make inroads (given FPTP) before the moment passes.
For Labour, faced with the changing dynamics, how to hold on to that Brown + lefty lib dem coalition that will see them back in power.
The Tories have by far the most worries. UKIP splitting their vote unpredictably, Labour winning marginals, Lib Dems not budging against Tory assaults. A perfect storm, and I see no way out for them.
The Lib Dems, strangely, have the easiest task. Fight like cornered dogs to keep the incumbency / tactical vote intact.
"The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose"
The seat numbers are very flattering for the Tories given their vote share - looks like they have run a smart campaign.
My own tuppence worth is that anyone spinning anything is talking bollocks. We are in completely uncharted territory. It's been a slap in the face for the same old same old. And FPTP must die.
Today we find out which of the 3 traditional parties do not draw lessons from these elections....they will be the 'stupid party'....
Farage would be perfectly suited to the parliamentary constituency.
350+ voted Con and 200 voted Green.
All literature was focussed on who was the most Green/Lefty and the Con rump was written off - seems to have been a mistake by the Yellers.
We are in uncharted waters. Save UKIP, all parties have problems.
Last two Kent seats now in. Both Kipper in Herne Bay.
Farage would be perfectly suited to the parliamentary constituency.
Yes he would!
Especially as Roger Gale is quite likely to stand down at the next GE
labour 10,164 votes
conservative 8,697
all labour footsoldiers were asked to work in nottinghamshire and not campaign in loughborough or leics nw last weekend and last few days.
'BBC losses showing a more even % loss rate after 2,172 results. C -320 -22.9%, LD -106 -23.9%. LAB at +260, well short of R&T expectation.'
Hadn't realized it was so poor for Labour,explains why Tim has gone silent.
De haut en bas:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ukip-wins-hearts-not-minds-8603066.html
Stupid voters....
Glad to see its not just the right cleaving to their delusions.....
Actually, I think UKIP might find they have a few problems as well. This result reminds me a little bit of the SNP's unexpected breakthrough in the 1968 local elections, when many of their candidates were 'paper' candidates who just weren't ready or suited for office. Bad publicity swiftly followed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22387361
...oh yes.....
Labour have never won a majority with 29% of the vote
People don't vote for parties. They vote for individuals
A majority government is better for strong government and accountability to the electorate
Mr. Kelly, that's a good point (actually, I made it myself the other day but forgot about it). They'll have tons of councillors and if vetting's as poor as reported they might have some difficult stories surfacing.
That said, you'd clearly rather be in Nigel Farage's shoes tonight than David Cameron's.
Speaking of paper candidates, a LD activists coming back from Hampshire count posted that a UKIP candidate didn't ask for a recount in tight division because he didn't want to be elected.....
What a twat
Cons: in line with expectations...its tough
LibDems: Done ok, but only because they were facing Cons - seats results 'flatter to deceive'
Lab: Disappointing - difficult to argue made progress vs last local elections.
UKIP: 'Spectacular' - clearly well ahead of LibDems and only a bit behind Cons - have we seen a change to 4 party politics in England? Or do they do a 'Greens'?
And if so, and there are alternatives, what will Conservative policy be. Bring them in or isolate them?
In northern england there are tory mps. Based on results the tories would lose the following seats
Loughborough
Leicestershire nw
north warwickshire
sherwood
broxtowe
lancaster/fleetwood
morecambe/lunesdale
weaver vale
carlisle
burnley
nuneaton
erewash
blackpool north
cannock cahse
warwick north/leamington
high peak
rossendale/darwin
lincoln
south ribble
stafford
south derbyshire
However, I wouldn't expect the stuff about 'respecting what the voters said' to mean quite what people expect. The risk from UKIP's point of view will be that the ranks of rookie UKIP councillors do indeed include a fair smattering of fruitcakes and loons, or at least of the naive and inexperienced. Their opponents in the other three parties are unlikely to give them a free ride, whatever they say about respecting the people who voted UKIP, and the press will of course be looking for stories. Don't expect a sudden political ceasefire - the manoeuvering will involve attempting to prise UKIP voters away from the party, and to do that you use wedge issues.
Edit: Good Lord, I see I've just made much the same point as JamesKelly. This must be a first!
These new UKIP councillors will need to keep their right arms in check and stay out of lap-dancing clubs.
There will be a Sun reporter tracking their every move.
Interesting times - next years Euro's coincide with locals in more traditional Labour areas - could be more fun for the Kippers.
if another recount is not asked....
https://twitter.com/DarrenBurkeDFP/status/330355539823435776/photo/1
What a load of carolingian bollocks!
More than 1,000,000 votes cast for @UKIP
Tories may be daft but they are consistent to their principles. Is that a good thing?
Peter Davies 24725
So Jones +3,368
Davies +3,319
11,330 not transfered
The constituency includes a lot of safe Tory areas from South Staffs District.
Hell of a day, though, huh.
There were 2,8k Tories and 4,5k EngDem
who didn't transfer? The incumbent was elected as EngDem in 2009 before leaving them. UKIP didn't run to give him a clear run this year.
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesVincent/status/330357314345373697/photo/1
I still remember EdM and Gordon calling me a Flat Earther and Anti-Science for not buying AGW - that was over 3yrs ago -insulting voters on a personal level is very dangerous and it sticks.
I didn't vote yesterday - I can't recall the last time I didn't. Frankly, I'm delighted the Kippers did so well - I'd never vote for them but they're shaking up the smuggery of the Westminster Class.
No, I was hoping they wouldn't do as well as this. It seems to me that the UKIP surge is disguising Labour's poor position - Labour might well have been outpolled by the Tories in these elections (in the projected figures) had UKIP not been around.
The projected national vote shares have "Tory victory in 2015" written all over them, but the challenge for the Yes campaign will be to get that message across. UKIP is complicating matters, but hopefully not too much.
Lib Dems beaten by bright orange and yellow fascist.
There, I said it!
Tories not sufficiently unhinged, concedes Cameron
In response to the UKIP Surge, the prime minister insisted he had ‘got the message’ and would now walk around with a combat knife clenched in his foaming jaws.
Mr Cameron added: “Most UKIP voters used to support the Conservatives. Or, perhaps, one of the other right wing parties… Anyway.
“We used to welcome candidates who would strip to the waist and photograph themselves in front of a Union Jack. Or use an incredibly dangerous dog as their Facebook photo.
“In our pursuit of the middle ground we decided that these people were strange and frightening and way, way too angry about an enormous number of things.
“That was wrong.”
"In London we have the Gherkin and the Cheesegrater, so-called for the skyscrapers' physical resemblance to their namesakes. So one must wonder what the people of China will begin to call the headquarters of the state newspaper, the People's Daily, that recently popped up in Beijing.
With its imposing oblong structure and rounded conical top, the tower has drawn more than a few comparisons with a certain part of the male anatomy. Criticism of the ongoing construction project has forced moderators on Sina Weibo - China's answer to Twitter - to censor those discussing the unique piece of architecture.
However, some comments have managed to sneak through the vetting process, allowing users to poke fun at the recent erection. "Of course the national mouthpiece should be imposing," said one user.
"It seems the People's Daily is going to rise up, there's hope for the Chinese dream," said another, referencing a Communist Party slogan. China's obscure state architecture has attracted attention before, with the China Central Television headquarters being nicknamed The Big Underpants... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/internet-critics-point-out-the-phallic-nature-of-chinas-peoples-daily-newspaper-new-headquarters-8603256.html