Labour will be happier winning two Tory seats in Deal. The residual old east Kent mining vote hasn't quite faded away. The picture for Labour is that they aren't doing too badly in some but not all of the marginal seats they need to win but have underperformed in many of the areas they've neglected allowing UKIP a free run.
Robinson's not very impressive generally. A political editor declaring that he knew all the tales of the Brown-Blair war from 10 years ago and didn't report it doesn't inspire confidence.
Very few journalists are all that good. Andrew Neil and Jeff Randall seem exceptions, and Tim Marshall (Sky's foreign affairs chap) seems to know his beans too.
So Labour are only picking up 1 in 4 of the votes the governing parties are shedding?
Labour's performance looks incredibly lacklustre again given the circumstances, IMO.
I know lefties will accuse me of trying to make out Labour should be doing better than they are, but it's true. At this point in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair was reaching his zenith with the Tories losing over 2000 councillors in one huge blood bath.
Ed Miliband just looks plodding abd frankly a bit cr*p
From my leftie perspective I'd sort of agree that Labour should be doing better than they are. But there's maybe a tactical risk/reward equation to consider: if they can plod along and not do anything to scare anybody - essentially hold on to Brown's vote plus a dfew 2010 LD and Tory switchers coming home - then the UKIP effect should see them in with a workable but unspectacular majority (other opinions on the maths are available but with UKIP in the 10-15% band that looks very likely to me). A bolder position could lead to a landslide over such an ineffective government, but there's a non-neglible risk of it being used to scare people off Labour. I suppose you could say that it can be difficult to assess whether a vision is a Blair vision or a Kinnock vision until the votes are weighed.
I'd see Miliband as focussed on the business of getting elected, rather than driven by being elected for a specific vision. He doesn't have anything really to recommend him other than being a bit better at the game than his opponents right now. Think of him as a Sir Timothy Beeswax, in Anthony Trollope's world: bestriding a ridiculously narrow world like a midget colossus.
Surely you meant to write "colossal midget", Polruan?
In a world of midgets, the colossal midget is king. Or something.
What's Nick Robinson deliberately misunderstanding?
The UKIP fellow was saying we would leave the EU and apply the same entry laws to everyone around the world so we get the best skilled immigrants no matter where they are from, but people from the EU werent allowed in willy nilly to have the same rights as UK citizens.
Robinson was saying that was no different from the current system
Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)
Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )
Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)
Con 26 Lab 20 LD 9 Green 2 Other 3
Well hung...
Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though
Labour and the LibDems hoovered up north Leamington, which is the nicest part of a nice town. It's where I live too!
The only poll for these elections showed Lab / UKIP within 2% of each other so it was MOE on which of them might get the best vote share. But in a GE areas like London and Scotland and Wales and the mets all get a vote and that will help Labour pull way ahead.
And just to add to that re power generation - power in the UK is principally produced by combined cycle gas turbines made by Siemens, GE, and (to a lesser extent) Alstom. We also have a number of coal plants of varying efficiency. These coal and gas plants are the marginal producers of electricity. That is, they set the price at which *all* baseload electricity (with the exception of the c. 5% on feed in tariffs) is sold.
The 'spark spread' and the 'dark spread' measure the margins made by electricity producers between the cost of an mmcf of gas or a mmbtu of coal and the value of electricity produced. There is no way to make wholesale electricity cheaper without securing cheaper coal or natural gas - neither of which are within the ability of British politicians to implement.
Of course, there are very sensible things we can do - we can encourage fraccing to ensure that at least it's our gas we're burning, and we can get rid of minimum carbon prices - but ultimately, absent massive subsidies, there is nothing politicians can do to substantially affect the price of electricity.
@oflynnexpress: The foundation of a century of Tory electoral success - the party's monopoly of the Right - is over. In fact the leadership threw it away.
Daves legacy
LOL! A tad over OTT?
Actually, the Tories monopoly over "the right" ended in the mid 90's when Blair took over Labour and lead as a small c conservative.
This is a nationwide election, in optimal circumstances for Labour, and it is very possible Labour will come third. And Labourite who isn't unsettled by that is brain-dead.
Not including London, Scotland, Wales and the big cities makes the circumstances far from optimal for Labour.
More Norfolk So far UKIP have gained 6 seats from Tories including 3 cabinet members
ACLE: Brian Iles (Conservative) HOLD AYLSHAM: David Harrison (Lib Dem) HOLD BLOFIELD AND BRUNDALL: Andrew Proctor (Conservative) HOLD BLOFIELD with SOUTH WALSHAM: Susan Lawn (Conservative) HOLD CAISTER-ON-SEA: Patrick Hacon (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives CATTON GROVE: Steve Morphew (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives COSTESSEY: Tim East (Lib Dem) HOLD CROMER: Hilary Cox (Conversative) HOLD DOCKING: Michael Baylis (Conservative) HOLD DOWNHAM MARKET: Tony White (Conservative) HOLD DRAYTON AND HORSFORD: Tony Adams (Conservative) HOLD EATON: Brian Watkins (Lib Dem) HOLD FAKENHAM: Tom Fitzpatrick (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dem FINCHAM: Brian Long (Conservative) HOLD GAYWOOD SOUTH: Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives HELLESDON: Shelagh Gurney (Conservative) HOLD HOLT: Michael Baker (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative HOVETON AND STALHAM: Nigel Dixon (Conservative) HOLD MUNDESLEY: Wyndham Northam (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dems NECTON AND LAUNDITCH: Mark Kiddle-Morris (Conservative) HOLD NELSON: Andrew Boswell (Greens) HOLD NORTH WALSHAM EAST: Edward Foss (Lib Dem) HOLD OLD CATTON: Judy Leggett (Conservative) HOLD REEPHAM: James Joyce (Lib Dem) HOLD SEWELL: Julie Brociek-Coulton (Labour) GAIN from Greens SOUTH SMALLBURGH: David Thomas (Lib Dem) HOLD SWAFFHAM: Paul Smythe (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative TAVERHAM: Stuart Clancy (Conservative) HOLD THETFORD EAST: Denis Crawford (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative THORPE HAMLET: Adrian Dearnley (Greens) HOLD UNIVERSITY: Bert Bremner (Labour) HOLD WATTON: Stan Hebborn (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives WENSUM: Elizabeth Morgan (Greens) HOLD WEST FLEGG: Michael Carttiss (Conservative) HOLD WROXHAM: Tom Garrod (Conservative) HOLD YARE AND ALL SAINTS: Cliff Jordan (Conservative) HOLD. YARMOUTH NELSON & SOUTHTOWN: Rex Parkinson-Hare (UKIP) HOLD YARMOUTH NORTH & CENTRAL: Michael Castle (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
Warwickshire fully declared. No UKIP (not many standing actually)
Tories did well in the nice parts of the county (South, West, including where I grew up and Southam :-) )
Labour did well in sh1tholes like Bedowrth and Nuneaton which we try and forget are part of Warickshire (shudder). Warwickshire North parliamentary seat is about 50% horrible unlike the rest of the county (outside the big cities like Leamington and Rugby) which is delightful ;-)
Con 26 Lab 20 LD 9 Green 2 Other 3
Well hung...
Uselessly I can't tell you what the result was last time. Around 12-14 losses for tories IIRC though
Labour and the LibDems hoovered up north Leamington, which is the nicest part of a nice town. It's where I live too!
Some of Leam is lovely of course. Assumed you lived in Southam...
Driving from Stratford to Oxford through Long Compton etc is really lovely
Banging on about Europe, immigration and welfare? Yes he did. It was of course a triumph for the incompetent fops and likely will be again since they never, ever learn.
is there a graph showing when UKIP support started to surge, like the one which shows Labour taking the lead after the Pasty budget?
If Labour comes third in the projected national share of the vote, surely Ed Miliband will be facing a summer leadership wobble?
No amount of Labour gloating at the Tories UKIP discomfort could disguise the main Opposition party coming third in the national projected share of the vote in a national poll is an atrocious result for Labour.
Should we leave the EU the government can do plenty about immigrants that are already here but not UK citizens.
Rather a chilling statement in my book.
Yawn. Just another nod, nod, wink, wink pretense that the UKIP are the BNP in disguise. The government currently regularly changes the rules for those non-citizens with residency that come from the rest of the world. Yet doing this for EU migrants is "chilling".
Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
East Mids very good for Labour. No kippers in Derbyshire with 1 result to come in.
Kippers now on 5 in ESxCC - both seats in Telscombe their way. Another 11 yet to declare of 49. 2009 result was 29 Tories 13 LDs 4 Lab [they've got 7 all in Hastings]
Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
Mr. Smithson, it's misleading to state that 10% of UKIP supporters are concerned about MMR without also reporting that 100% of them opted for it, particularly when 'just' 2% of Lib Dems are concerned but some of them didn't go for it.
If Labour comes third in the projected national share of the vote, surely Ed Miliband will be facing a summer leadership wobble?
No amount of Labour gloating at the Tories UKIP discomfort could disguise the main Opposition party coming third in the national projected share of the vote in a national poll is an atrocious result for Labour.
Assuming you mean projection adjusted to take account of the particular regions voting this time, I'd have thought second would be atrocious. In terms of the actual votes being cast today, it's all about direction of travel because it's not a national poll, it's a number of local polls which are distributed in an unrepresentative manner.
That's not a myth - the view of Ukip supporters on MMR are based on surveys jst two wks ago.
One of which showed that 25% of Lib Dem supporters hadn't bothered to have their children vaccinated. Says a lot about both your partial picking of data and the attitudes of Lib Dems to the welfare of their kids.
The last remaining ward in Derbyshire is however intriguing. UKIP actually stood here last time and these are the results for the two wards which as far as I can tell roughly make up the new ward in 2009. Glossop/Charlesworth
Sylvia Hall (Uk Independence Party) 585 votes Alistair John Stevens (Liberal Democrats) 528 votes George David Wharmby (Conservative) 1823 votes Jacqueline Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) 744 votes
George Kuppan (Liberal Democrats) 514 votes David Phillips(UK Independence ) 528 votes Jean Wharmby (Conservative) 1262 votes Roger Wilkinson (Labour) 934 votes.
There is only 1 UKIP candidate but it is a 2 vote ward...
Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
The incumbency factor is a difficult one to judge in this case. UKIP actually increased their vote by 10.7%. Unfortunately the collapse of Tory and Lib Dem support scuppered them with Labour overtaking them.
Sean, I'm surprised a man of your background would be so quick to claim eastern England is the cradle of English rebellion, after the events of 1497 and 1549. There's also the Stafford rebellion. The Oxfordshire Rising also comes to mind...
@SeanT perhaps in your next book the character will need knowledge of 80s pop music, the second punic war and an obscure by-election result, and log on to a website that happens to have commenters expert on all three.
Witney result. Sorry not to live up to your prejudices Tim. Central Witney has a long Labour tradition - it is much to do with how they acquired their houses. Labour holds the District seat. The southern part of the County seat has a long standing Labour core. It was always the best Labour bet in West Oxfordshire.
The Tory candidate in the ward arouses a lot of dislike in many - including me - and was recently ousted from control of the Town Council which he ran as his own fieffdom.
That said UKIP nearly sneaked it Tory / UKIP / Lab all got 30%
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m Curtice: Labour 5 points down on 2005 score when it last won a majority. 'The scale of Labour's progress in truth will disappoint the party'
"Here" in Cornwall, Mebyon Kernow still leading those UK-federalist Westminster centralisers UKIP 4 seats to 3 (though a little behind in the vote share). Across the river from Polruan in Fowey it was a close-run thing with LD holding just ahead of MK with Cons in 3rd.
UKIP take all Folkestone and Sheppey Seats and most of Swale. They also take Romney in Kent Make further inroads into Tunbridge Wells (clearly outraged). The Boston scenario seems to be happening along the Kent Coast.
Interesting Hucknall/Notts result - in 2009, there were two Tories and a UKIP candidate elected. All three have lost to Labour this time, so no UKIP incumbency factor there. Labour now +7 in Notts so far.
The incumbency factor is a difficult one to judge in this case. UKIP actually increased their vote by 10.7%. Unfortunately the collapse of Tory and Lib Dem support scuppered them with Labour overtaking them.
My reading FWIW is that Con/LD voters are more likely to have tactically voted UKIP but UKIP lost votes to Labour, rather than Con/LD flocking over to Labour. I believe the UKIP councillor NEVER voted in any council decision.
Comments
Robinson's not very impressive generally. A political editor declaring that he knew all the tales of the Brown-Blair war from 10 years ago and didn't report it doesn't inspire confidence.
Very few journalists are all that good. Andrew Neil and Jeff Randall seem exceptions, and Tim Marshall (Sky's foreign affairs chap) seems to know his beans too.
Robinson was saying that was no different from the current system
Results coming in on twitter not the official site : #cccelection
And just to add to that re power generation - power in the UK is principally produced by combined cycle gas turbines made by Siemens, GE, and (to a lesser extent) Alstom. We also have a number of coal plants of varying efficiency. These coal and gas plants are the marginal producers of electricity. That is, they set the price at which *all* baseload electricity (with the exception of the c. 5% on feed in tariffs) is sold.
The 'spark spread' and the 'dark spread' measure the margins made by electricity producers between the cost of an mmcf of gas or a mmbtu of coal and the value of electricity produced. There is no way to make wholesale electricity cheaper without securing cheaper coal or natural gas - neither of which are within the ability of British politicians to implement.
Of course, there are very sensible things we can do - we can encourage fraccing to ensure that at least it's our gas we're burning, and we can get rid of minimum carbon prices - but ultimately, absent massive subsidies, there is nothing politicians can do to substantially affect the price of electricity.
4 to LD, 13 to labour, 9 to Tory and 1 to Independent.
Four changes, all going to Labour. Three from Tories and one from Lib Dems.
Actually, the Tories monopoly over "the right" ended in the mid 90's when Blair took over Labour and lead as a small c conservative.
Romney Marsh seat goes to #ukip from Conservatives Now on 8 #kccelection
Points out that 10% of UKIP supporters have concerns about MMR whilst only 2% of Lib Dem supporters do.
Fails to point out that 100% of UKIP supporters polled had their kids vaccinated anyway whilst fully 25% of Lib Dem supporters failed to do so.
So far UKIP have gained 6 seats from Tories including 3 cabinet members
ACLE: Brian Iles (Conservative) HOLD
AYLSHAM: David Harrison (Lib Dem) HOLD
BLOFIELD AND BRUNDALL: Andrew Proctor (Conservative) HOLD
BLOFIELD with SOUTH WALSHAM: Susan Lawn (Conservative) HOLD
CAISTER-ON-SEA: Patrick Hacon (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
CATTON GROVE: Steve Morphew (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
COSTESSEY: Tim East (Lib Dem) HOLD
CROMER: Hilary Cox (Conversative) HOLD
DOCKING: Michael Baylis (Conservative) HOLD
DOWNHAM MARKET: Tony White (Conservative) HOLD
DRAYTON AND HORSFORD: Tony Adams (Conservative) HOLD
EATON: Brian Watkins (Lib Dem) HOLD
FAKENHAM: Tom Fitzpatrick (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dem
FINCHAM: Brian Long (Conservative) HOLD
GAYWOOD SOUTH: Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
HELLESDON: Shelagh Gurney (Conservative) HOLD
HOLT: Michael Baker (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
HOVETON AND STALHAM: Nigel Dixon (Conservative) HOLD
MUNDESLEY: Wyndham Northam (Conservative) GAIN from Lib Dems
NECTON AND LAUNDITCH: Mark Kiddle-Morris (Conservative) HOLD
NELSON: Andrew Boswell (Greens) HOLD
NORTH WALSHAM EAST: Edward Foss (Lib Dem) HOLD
OLD CATTON: Judy Leggett (Conservative) HOLD
REEPHAM: James Joyce (Lib Dem) HOLD
SEWELL: Julie Brociek-Coulton (Labour) GAIN from Greens
SOUTH SMALLBURGH: David Thomas (Lib Dem) HOLD
SWAFFHAM: Paul Smythe (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
TAVERHAM: Stuart Clancy (Conservative) HOLD
THETFORD EAST: Denis Crawford (UKIP) GAIN from Conservative
THORPE HAMLET: Adrian Dearnley (Greens) HOLD
UNIVERSITY: Bert Bremner (Labour) HOLD
WATTON: Stan Hebborn (UKIP) GAIN from Conservatives
WENSUM: Elizabeth Morgan (Greens) HOLD
WEST FLEGG: Michael Carttiss (Conservative) HOLD
WROXHAM: Tom Garrod (Conservative) HOLD
YARE AND ALL SAINTS: Cliff Jordan (Conservative) HOLD.
YARMOUTH NELSON & SOUTHTOWN: Rex Parkinson-Hare (UKIP) HOLD
YARMOUTH NORTH & CENTRAL: Michael Castle (Labour) GAIN from Conservatives
UKIP gain Margate/Cliftonville. Thanet should've been easy pickings for Labour.
Ukip +2
Con -1
LD -2
Lab +2
Gr -1
5 holds.
Driving from Stratford to Oxford through Long Compton etc is really lovely
Green bubble burst. Here at #Norwich count the THIRD Labour gain from the Greens just announced.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2013-05-02/Ukip since Sep-11-01 Rolling.jpg
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/02/local-elections-and-question-ukip/
No amount of Labour gloating at the Tories UKIP discomfort could disguise the main Opposition party coming third in the national projected share of the vote in a national poll is an atrocious result for Labour.
Seems the Conservative vote is about half what it was in 2009 #kccelection
Con -9
Lab +8
LD -11
UKIP +17
What was National Equivalent share in 2009?
Perhaps opposing upgrading the A14 was a big factor.
Live feed
http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections-2013/
And the sole green out too - yay.
5 to LD, 17 to labour, 12 to Tory and 1 to Independent.
Seven changes, all going to Labour. Five from Tories, one from UKIP and one from Lib Dems.
UKIP increased their vote in Hucknal from 20% to 31% but still lost their seat.
Tories just head of LDs on 13 to 10
Con 1507
UKIP 1355
Lab 875
http://moderngov.staffordshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=171&RPID=31862883
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22395899
Did Tony Blair destroy the conservatives? discuss....
http://ukipian.com/2013/04/26/mmr-a-dose-of-reality/
EDIT 1 more seat to UKIP including my ward - WOW
Labour 756
UKIP 746
Con 697
Green 132
LD 85
Nick Robinson specifically referred to the poll that Mike referenced on a thread on here and it was that poll that showed the numbers I quoted.
Your little tricks don't work so well when people actually bother to go look at the facts.
Labour not getting an overall maj in Lancashire. An underwhelming performance as in much of the rest of the country
Sylvia Hall (Uk Independence Party) 585 votes
Alistair John Stevens (Liberal Democrats) 528 votes
George David Wharmby (Conservative) 1823 votes
Jacqueline Margaret Wilkinson (Labour) 744 votes
George Kuppan (Liberal Democrats) 514 votes
David Phillips(UK Independence ) 528 votes
Jean Wharmby (Conservative) 1262 votes
Roger Wilkinson (Labour) 934 votes.
There is only 1 UKIP candidate but it is a 2 vote ward...
Neil, where are you? Candy is back!
Hardly a platform for a Labour victory two years out.
The homosexuals of Cornwall better watch out!
Hung parliament with Labour largest party.
http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2013-05-03/stink-bomb-disrupts-election-count/
Doncaster Labour is waste of space.
UKIP: 232
Lab: 220
Con: 216
MK-PC: 204
Or you may end up being like the Lib Dem in South Shields, and losing your "deposit"
Lab 37% UKIP 31% Con 25%
EDIT: There's also the Western Rising of course.
Harriet Harman effectively rules out a referendum and states Labour would oppose one.
Of course it's still 50/50
LOL...
Dan Hodges will go to war with Red later I bet.
You should know better.
More helpful (and a much bigger number) is "Total Safe":
OA: 85
Con: 90
Lab: 87
UKIP: 83
The Tory candidate in the ward arouses a lot of dislike in many - including me - and was recently ousted from control of the Town Council which he ran as his own fieffdom.
That said UKIP nearly sneaked it Tory / UKIP / Lab all got 30%
#Conservative Candidates win every seat in #MidSussex. Congratulations, clean sweep
RT @Tom_Waterhouse Latest seats tallies: Con 373 (-109), Lab 122 (+68), Lib 128 (-26), UKIP 52 (+52) #vote2013
Curtice: Labour 5 points down on 2005 score when it last won a majority. 'The scale of Labour's progress in truth will disappoint the party'
Ouch...
UKIP take all Folkestone and Sheppey Seats and most of Swale. They also take Romney in Kent Make further inroads into Tunbridge Wells (clearly outraged). The Boston scenario seems to be happening along the Kent Coast.