politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP
Comments
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London latest (870,000 votes counted):
Lab 33
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
Lab now 3,000 behind Con in whole of UK with approx 50% (?) of London to come.0 -
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job
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I can go to bed happy. See you in the morning.MikeL said:London latest (800,000 votes counted):
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
LD down to 6 - no chance of a seat.0 -
Britain Elects 2014 @britainelects 5m
Scotland will be declaring in the morning. London will hopefully be declaring in forty-five minutes...0 -
1. Tories culd win some back, but only if they pledge to hold the referendum without a futile attempt at renegotiation with a pledge to vote out. Otherwise its Shapps Green restating his one line about "only we can give you a referendum" that no kipper voters are listening to. As it doesn't seem remotely likely I'm reasonably confident that UKIP aren't going to melt away.david_herdson said:
If UKIP is splitting the Tory vote, you ought to be damned worried if any of that 30%+ starts going back, given that Con and Lab are neck and neck.RochdalePioneers said:Hannah describing the elephant in the room. Regardless of national % UKIP will split the Tories vote and let Labour in. And with vast swathes of the country switching from blue to purple as shown on Emily Mmmmmmmmmaitless's map, dismissing Labour's +9% as rubbish seems rather silly. Not with the kippers running amok
Except that isn't the case, as you and I both know. In reality, UKIP is taking votes from Labour too, and in large numbers (yes, they're up on 2009 but that's not saying much).
2. UKIP take votes off us mainly in seats where we can afford to lose the votes like Rotherham. And unlike ex Tory kipper voters who've heard the Tories "please come back" appeal repeatedly, Labour haven't formulated a plea yet never mind had a chance to wear it out.
3. All of the "not good enough" comments are in comparison to 3 party shares rather than the 4 party reality of no. Labour 9% up with gains across the country, Tories 4% down and kippers 12% up all across the country means that % share is even less relevant than ever. Its where you bank the votes that counts.
Of course I'd be delighted with Labour well ahead. But as losing governments on 29% never ever win the forthcoming election allegedly, I'll take what we've got and cheat on the anti-politics Farage machine.
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Hope he didn't stake too much.peter_from_putney said:Q. Where is Mark Senior tonight?
A. Totally invisible.
Quelle surprise!0 -
It would have helped if the SNP had actually ran a European campaign. I certainly didn't get a Freepost election address from them, and my other Scotland contacts in "the other place" report similar.fitalass said:With this Conservative result tonight, its going to get ever more harder to spin that all Ed Miliband and Labour have to do is turn up at the next GE and they will get the keys to No10 with a majority or as the largest party.....
Bang on the money with that comment. The whole SNP campaign was run on gaining a third MEP with a keep UKIP out of Scotland ticket, Salmond and the SNP Government were desperate to be in a position to spin that they had been immune to any UKIP surge elsewhere in the UK. And they can't blame the only right leaning party in Scotland for that failure as our vote held up strongly despite the UKIP performance.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!AndyJS said:SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
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Guesstimate, Lab 100k 85,000 ahead.AndyJS said:
Are you able to separate Con and Lab in terms of popular votes?RodCrosby said:
final result will be... (barring something extraordinary in London or Scotland)marke09 said:SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 17
UKIP 25 (+12)
Lab 19 (+6)
Con 19 (-7)
LD 1 (-10)
Green 3 (+1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)0 -
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Your hero respects Nigel Farage. Perhaps he doesn't consider him typical Ukip, more a gentleman banker.AveryLP said:0 -
You say that like it's a bad thing *gYossariansChild said:Kellner knifing Ed Milliband and Labour
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Does this result mean that the brakes will be applied to the relentless rush for 'ever closer union', or will the powers that be ignore it and carry on as usual?0
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davidherdson Blair would have won in 1994 had had he been leader a few months earlier, Brown and Callaghan both lost and Kinnock lost the 1984 euro elections which Thatcher won, but won the 1989 Euro elections, but Major was not leader then but Thatcher in decline0
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Perhaps he already sat down with the Mess Webley and bottle of whisky?peter_from_putney said:Q. Where is Mark Senior tonight?
A. Totally invisible.
Quelle surprise!
For any other officer contemplating the honourable way out please remember that it's a .445 calibre so you should put down newspaper first or you'll make a nasty stain in the carpet. Your fellow officers will appreciate details like that. Traditionally it's in the third drawer down in the anteroom desk.
(all metaphorical of course before anyone takes that seriously)
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Fitalass Indeed
NoOffenceAlan The SNP were pushing hard to take it0 -
LDs in London are down 50% - from 12 to 6.
And there are 7 LD MPs in London!0 -
Never mind all this filling on the been, can't they help Tower Hamlets stuff the ballot boxes instead so we can go to bed?0
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RodCrosby said:
Guesstimate, Lab 100k ahead.AndyJS said:
Are you able to separate Con and Lab in terms of popular votes?RodCrosby said:
final result will be... (barring something extraordinary in London or Scotland)marke09 said:SKy and BBc out of synch with number of MEP's
BBC has UKIP 22 Labour 14 Cons 16
Sky has Ukip 23 Labour 16
Con 17
UKIP 25 (+12)
Lab 19 (+6)
Con 19 (-7)
LD 1 (-10)
Green 3 (+1)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
Thanks Rod. Well, at least it'll keep Ed in position for the requisite 11 months.0 -
If there was an election contest where Nick Griffin and Ed Miliband were the only candidates and Dan said he was voting for Ed, I'd only be certain it was true if Dan showed me his filled in ballot paper before I put it into the ballot box myself.
Joan Crawford and Bette Davis were the best of buddies compared to Dan's loathing for ED.marke09 said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Guardian reporting Labour may finish 1% ahead of Tories. Probably spin. But if that is true Ed Miliband is in serious trouble.0 -
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SKY given up waiting for Tower Hamlets and gone home an hour early0
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Perhaps they overlooked the number of 3member London wards where UKIP stood (only) one candidate? Surely they couldn't have overlooked its effect on overall voter totals..MikeL said:
Could they?
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Yeah, I'm still waiting for Andy Murray to win Wimbledon.
Glenda Jackson and Myra Hindley's mother need to set up a support group.BobaFett said:
This is the prediction from the man who a few days ago declared Farage's career over.marke09 said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Guardian reporting Labour may finish 1% ahead of Tories. Probably spin. But if that is true Ed Miliband is in serious trouble.0 -
Yes!MikeL said:
London latest (800,000 votes counted):
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
LD down to 6 - no chance of a seat.0 -
Interesting - got a link, please?MikeL said:
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With whom would you repace Ed Miliband?SouthamObserver said:
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job0 -
Didn't some people on Friday say that there was a poll saying 41% of people planned to vote for a party other than UKIP in the locals but UKIP in the Euros (or something) and thus calculate 29% from the 17% in the locals?
I'm a bit drunk, so hopefully you know what I mean.0 -
That's because of the Western Isles and their sabbatarian crap.marke09 said:
Britain Elects 2014 @britainelects 5m
Scotland will be declaring in the morning. London will hopefully be declaring in forty-five minutes...0 -
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.shiney2 said:
Interesting - got a link, please?MikeL said:0 -
3 to 4 recounts ordered in Tower Hamlets, with every vote being carefully watched by rival camps - BBC.0
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I feel I should offer a note of congratulation to the kippers on here. A stunning result. Ridiculously so.
I honestly think some sort of tacit deal is almost certain now in the vein of the Labour and Co-operative parties0 -
Who by?MikeL said:
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.shiney2 said:
Interesting - got a link, please?MikeL said:
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BBC reporter at Tower Hamlets about to collapse from fatique.0
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London latest (945,000 votes counted):
Lab 33
Con 24
UKIP 20
Green 9
LD 6
Lab now 12,000 ahead in total across UK.0 -
Betfair Maj 2015
Lab 3.15
Con 4.0
NOM 2.280 -
Hannan wants a deal, various other Tories want a deal, some of you think there'll be a deal. There won't be a deal.
Where's a bookmaker when you need one?0 -
No idea. At this stage Andy Burnham would probably work best, but there's no outstanding candidate. However, it's hard to think of many who would be less convincing than Ed. He truly is a liability.old_labour said:With whom would you repace Ed Miliband?
SouthamObserver said:
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job
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Bogdanor: Lab in serious trouble if want an overall majority.0
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Professor Vernon Bogdanor — Labour have serious problems if they're expecting to win overall majority next year.0
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I'd rather a Tory had won that Scottish Euro seat than the creepy Ukip guy.
***washes out mouth with sugar soap***viewcode said:0 -
Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.0
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No end justifies all means. There is a point at which you opt out of the process.shiney2 said:
And a party which tolerates public abuse of its opponents on the sole grounds of their race, nationality or religion is not a party I want in power.
If the people elect such a party, I will simply return to living outside the UK.
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Purnellold_labour said:With whom would you repace Ed Miliband?
SouthamObserver said:
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job
(lolz)0 -
Can't Tower Hamlets just give it's Euro results out, noone else gives a hoot who has won their councils.0
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Tower Hamlets keep promising their Euro results.
A bit like David Cameron promising his referendum.0 -
You can follow the progress of the London vote here:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
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Whilst there are still some people here I'd just like to express my appreciation to everyone who has posted on PB for an excellent and informative night. The last few result threads have seen the site at its best. Thank you all.0
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Bad result for Tories in Barnet in local elections:
Popular votes:
Con 39,302 (39.01%)
Lab 36,213 (35.95%)
Green 11,310 (11.23%)
LD 8,115 (8.06%)
UKIP 4,433 (4.40%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Con -1.82%
Lab +5.72%
Green +5.02%
LD -11.56%
UKIP +4.40%0 -
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?RochdalePioneers said:Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.0 -
People with AIFE bets: what is the latest figure on them? The Beeb seems to say 1.51.0
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No name, no link.shiney2 said:
Who by?MikeL said:
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.shiney2 said:
Interesting - got a link, please?MikeL said:
Veracity?
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Spain (97.9% counted)
PP 26% (-16.2%) 16 seats (-8) (EPP)
PSOE 23% (-15.8%) 14 (-9) (S&D)
IU-ICV 10% (+6.3%) 6 (+4) ( 5 GUE-NGL, 1 Greens/EFA)
PODEMOS 7.95% 5 (+5)!!! (GUE-NGL)
UPyD 6.5% (+3.6%) 4 (+3) (NI)
CiU+PNV+CC 5.45% (+0.35%) 3 (nc) (2 ALDE, 1 EPP)
ERC 4.1% 2 (+1) (Greens/EFA)
Cs 3.2% 2 (+2) (NI)
EHBildu+BNG 2.1% 1 (+1) (?)
Compromís+Equo 1.9% 1 (+1) (Greens/EFA)0 -
Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps?
Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster?
It will hapoen0 -
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.MikeL said:
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?RochdalePioneers said:Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.0 -
I was thinking that. Had I gone for under I think I'd win, but in truth I thought it would be barely half the 1.5% figure.Pulpstar said:
Given UKIP's relative unpopularity in London/Scotland surely it'll be under 1.5% ?Quincel said:People with AIFE bets: what is the latest figure on them? The Beeb seems to say 1.51.
I have no skin in this particular game.0 -
I think it's a close call. If I had to bet on it I would say:Quincel said:
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.MikeL said:
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?RochdalePioneers said:Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
LD 12, UKIP 9
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So far the "UK EPP" one seems to have got more than AIFE in London.Pulpstar said:
Given UKIP's relative unpopularity in London/Scotland surely it'll be under 1.5% ?Quincel said:People with AIFE bets: what is the latest figure on them? The Beeb seems to say 1.51.
I have no skin in this particular game.
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Who won in the three borders seats? I'm assuming the Tories took all 3?0
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I remember Tory leadership in 1975 where it was assumed that Whitelaw had it in the bag and that Maggie was mocked by many until 78/79 where it was thought she had no chance of winning the next GE.
Obama and Attlee were no hopers in their various ways, Salmond could never win an overall majority under the Scottish PR system.
The only certainty about politics is that there are none.SouthamObserver said:
No idea. At this stage Andy Burnham would probably work best, but there's no outstanding candidate. However, it's hard to think of many who would be less convincing than Ed. He truly is a liability.old_labour said:With whom would you repace Ed Miliband?
SouthamObserver said:
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job0 -
Christian Alliance down from 1.55% to 0.24%.
I thought everyone was up in arms about gay marriage?
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I'm going to watch a movie. I'll check in later to see if London has declared by then.0
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Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy0
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he has been useless at holding the Tories feet to the fire on what is an issue that is normally a strength for Labour and a weakness for the Conservative Party.MrJones said:
Purnellold_labour said:With whom would you repace Ed Miliband?
SouthamObserver said:
No, Ed is going nowhere whatever happens unfortunately.dyedwoolie said:What would the Tories give for 50,000 NI votes!!
Looks like London has saved Eds job
(lolz)0 -
Thank the great Sky Fairy for small merciesMikeL said:Christian Alliance down from 1.55% to 0.24%.
I thought everyone was up in arms about gay marriage?0 -
That's only London.MrJones said:currently
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
1.23% UK EPP
1.16% AIFE
Whole UK - AIFE 1.51%.0 -
I agree it's still fairly close, but as time goes on and the LDs actually underperform their polling and expectations I'm starting to wonder if they'll really get double figures at the next election. And if they don't I'd make UKIP slim favourites, not 2.38 outsiders,MikeL said:
I think it's a close call. If I had to bet on it I would say:Quincel said:
I tell you this, and I say it as a die-hard left-libertarian who hates UKIP's policies: it's getting increasingly difficult to see how the LDs can be odds on to beat UKIP in votes in 2015. Maybe the LDs will pick up loads of votes, but so far they really really aren't recovering even as the Tories do.MikeL said:
So you think UKIP will get 29% at the GE?RochdalePioneers said:Oh dear. Bogdanor in the "UKIP voters will realise they've been silly and go home to the Tories" camp. I expect much head scratching next year after this doesn't happen.
If so, go to a bookmaker and if you're right you can become a millionaire very easily.
All you are doing is posting what you WANT to happen.
You're just like football fans predicting their team will win or kids cheering on their favourite pop group.
If you really believe what you are posting - go down to the bookies.
LD 12, UKIP 90 -
Sinn Fein got the first Dublin seat. I think they have all gone to bed in Ireland too and will continue tomorrow with all their 1,000 STV rounds0
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Is the London 1.16 in that 1.51, if it isn't then under is surely a winner..MikeL said:
That's only London.MrJones said:currently
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
1.23% UK EPP
1.16% AIFE
Whole UK - AIFE 1.51%.0 -
I don't know if this helps but Mark Senior said on this old thread:shiney2 said:
No name, no link.shiney2 said:
Who by?MikeL said:
No, sorry - was posted on here sometime on Friday.shiney2 said:
Interesting - got a link, please?MikeL said:
Veracity?
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/447/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-hung-parliament-maintains-its-favourite-status-in-the-gener/p1
HYUFD
Mark Senior - Depends if they calculate based on total overall result, or highest vote in a multi-member ward. In any case in 2012 the LDs put up a candidate in Cardigan Mwaldan as well as Cardigan Teifi and Llangeitho and Llansantffraid which they did not do in 2008. Although they did not put up a candidate in Aberystwyth Bronglais, Llandyfriog and Trefeurig unlike 2008, overall they contested one more ward net and put up 2 candidates in Aberystwyth Penpercau in 2012 compared to one in 2008
Mark Senior
A few of the wards are multi member , the no of candidates is not important , it is the number of wards fought that will effect the voting shares .0 -
Necessity is the mutha of invention.HYUFD said:Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy
He is, first and foremost, a career politician with nowhere to go but into history. He is not ready to yet do so.
Q.E.D
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A Con/Kip pact would harm both parties, neither will agree to one.dyedwoolie said:
Necessity is the mutha of invention.HYUFD said:Dadge As Farage said, Cameron will not do a deal with UKIP as he considers them 'the lower orders', unlike Clegg who is descended from Russian aristocracy
He is, first and foremost, a career politician with nowhere to go but into history. He is not ready to yet do so.
Q.E.D0 -
Is the Green vote going to be under or over 8% ?...0
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London is one of the greatest cities in the world, but nights like tonight make it seem like a laughing stock, sadly.0
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Its just a gut feeling, but I think Labour will get back the greens far more easily than the Conservatives will get back UKIP...0
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Yes, but only 50% of London counted so far so the 1.51 will likely fall a bit.Pulpstar said:
Is the London 1.16 in that 1.51, if it isn't then under is surely a winner..MikeL said:
That's only London.MrJones said:currently
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
1.23% UK EPP
1.16% AIFE
Whole UK - AIFE 1.51%.0 -
Everyone can be happy to see the BNP annihilated.0
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Using up the resources of 3 planets ?!
Which ones lol...0 -
I'm going to watch the 1960 classic film "Peeping Tom" which is just mindblowingly good IMO. If you've never watched it, I would recommend it.0
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That was definitely a criticism that I heard from folk in rural areas about all the parties standing in the Euros this time around.BobaFett said:
This is the prediction from the man who a few days ago declared Farage's career over.marke09 said:
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 3m
Guardian reporting Labour may finish 1% ahead of Tories. Probably spin. But if that is true Ed Miliband is in serious trouble.No_Offence_Alan said:
It would have helped if the SNP had actually ran a European campaign. I certainly didn't get a Freepost election address from them, and my other Scotland contacts in "the other place" report similar.fitalass said:With this Conservative result tonight, its going to get ever more harder to spin that all Ed Miliband and Labour have to do is turn up at the next GE and they will get the keys to No10 with a majority or as the largest party.....
Bang on the money with that comment. The whole SNP campaign was run on gaining a third MEP with a keep UKIP out of Scotland ticket, Salmond and the SNP Government were desperate to be in a position to spin that they had been immune to any UKIP surge elsewhere in the UK. And they can't blame the only right leaning party in Scotland for that failure as our vote held up strongly despite the UKIP performance.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks. If true, that's an impressive rearguard action by the Conservatives.GIN1138 said:
Looks like it's gong to finish up:AndyJS said:
You'd think those figures with Scotland would put Labour ahead of the Tories overall.Casino_Royale said:
What does that pump out the forecast national GB totals out?MikeL said:London latest:
Lab 32
Con 24
UKIP 17
Green 10
LD 9
UKIP 29% Lab 25% Con 24% Green 8% Lib-Dem LOL!AndyJS said:SNP were praying that UKIP wouldn't win a seat apparently.
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Yeah that's what I'm saying. There is a second Ukip erm "alternative" party in London with a similar name so the AIFE vote percentage is likely to end up lower in London.MikeL said:
That's only London.MrJones said:currently
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007
1.23% UK EPP
1.16% AIFE
Whole UK - AIFE 1.51%.
Not sure if that's relevant to any bets.
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No it won't. The Conservatives won#t pull out of any seats.dyedwoolie said:Euro sceptic MPs in marginal constituencies will be 'allowed' to run on a joint party ticket, perhaps?
Tories to pull out of Rochdale, Doncaster?
It will hapoen0
