politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP
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London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.Grandiose said:
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.kle4 said:
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.TheScreamingEagles said:Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
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If Labour come 3rd, is Ed M a goner?0
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I can confirm that Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections, 3 days after other councils had already finished. I assume this will delay the London Euro result, unless they've got 2 separate counting centres which I doubt.0
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So where does EdM do for his photostunt ?
Eating a bacon buttie at Doncaster Market
Comparing prices in a Doncaster supermarket
Looking 'interested' in a Doncaster factory
Paying pool in a Doncaster miners welfare
'Enjoying' a pint in a Doncaster pub
Looking at a motorway sign to Doncaster and wondering where it is
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I doubt a UKIP MEP gain in Scotland will bode well for the Yes vote betting in the Indy Ref?Stuart_Dickson said:
CON win in Jim Murphy's seat.fitalass said:Twitter
Rob Murray @robmurray11 3m
East Renfrewshire council: @ScotTories 8,044, Labour: 7,623, SNP: 6,564 #EPScot0 -
Because the average swing Con to Lab in the announced results so far is not enough.bigjohnowls said:Why do people think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour finishing 3rd?
Lab will probably get a very big boost from London and get over the line, but they're well behind the run rate in Scotland, and the South East is not a natural hunting ground.
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What is the overall state of affairs when it comes to vote share?0
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Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.0
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Will we have the results for Tower Hamlets before the next general election?AndyJS said:I can confirm that Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections, 3 days after other councils had already finished. I assume this will delay the London Euro result, unless they've got 2 separate counting centres which I doubt.
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@hugorifkind: Scotland's Ukip MEP is a man who told me I was being racist against kebabs when I said Farage looked like one. Good luck with that, guys.0
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More crap from London - the London returning officer is refusing to release individual council results. We will have to wait for the London-wide result, and since Tower Hamlets are still counting the local elections that could be a long time in the future.0
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Would be no worse than the coverage they had in the week up to this vote.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
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He sounds quite funny!Scott_P said:@hugorifkind: Scotland's Ukip MEP is a man who told me I was being racist against kebabs when I said Farage looked like one. Good luck with that, guys.
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London returning officer not allowing ANY London results to be issued until all of London is 100% complete.0
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The relative change after 6 regions is Con -3.4%, Lab +8.2%...bigjohnowls said:Why do people think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour finishing 3rd?
IMHO Lab will be circa 26% and Con 22 or 23%
Adds to 11.6%.
Con were 12.0% ahead of Lab in 2009.
Therefore Lab need to do better than average (in aggregate) against the Tories in SE, LON, WM, NW and SCO.0 -
Lets go to bed London will not declare a single result until Tower Hamlets are finished, so nothing until Tuesday at least.0
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LOL hibs!
Hibs = salmond!!
Goodnight!!!
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Isabel Hardman @sighs@0
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I look forward to Darling welcoming UKIP into the Better Together teamfitalass said:I doubt a UKIP MEP gain in Scotland will bode well for the Yes vote betting in the Indy Ref?
Stuart_Dickson said:
CON win in Jim Murphy's seat.fitalass said:Twitter
Rob Murray @robmurray11 3m
East Renfrewshire council: @ScotTories 8,044, Labour: 7,623, SNP: 6,564 #EPScot
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Whilst UKIP will crow for a while, the true victors of these elections have - as ever - been the Can't Be Arsed Party......0
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What, accused being racist?TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
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And they're well behind the run rate in Scotland - they need Jos Butler to come in and smack it around in London if they want to chase this down.RodCrosby said:
The relative change after 6 regions is Con -3.4%, Lab +8.2%...bigjohnowls said:Why do people think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour finishing 3rd?
IMHO Lab will be circa 26% and Con 22 or 23%
Adds to 11.6%.
Con were 12.0% ahead of Lab in 2009.
Therefore Lab need to do better than average against the Tories in SE, LON, WM, NW and SCO.0 -
Final two official declarations of the night come in. SNP retain West Lothian, and Conservatives retain Scottish Borders. West Lothian - SNP: 14,279, Labour: 13,932, UKIP: 5,228. Scottish Borders - Conservatives: 9,972, SNP: 6,775, Lib Dems: 5,465.0
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In the outer london boroughs that will certainly have been the case..MrJones said:
London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.Grandiose said:
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.kle4 said:
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.TheScreamingEagles said:Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
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No - but tsunamis go both ways. And remember this is a party political election not the indy ref, and that both SNP and the Coalition are the parties of government at present, in the middle of their terms.SouthamObserver said:
There's certainly no tidal wave for the nationalist parties, is there?DavidL said:
No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.SouthamObserver said:
Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?DavidL said:My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.
The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.
SNP down (so far) -0.07 percentage points (I think the BBC means), and still first, with same no of MEPs - and almost got a third. Tories down 3.52 points, lose 1/4 of their MEPs. LDs lose 100% of MEPs. [Edit: on results so far.] I think the Tories and LDs would have been happy with the kind of 'defeat' inflicted on 'Salmond'!
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I was speaking to a guy of Bengali descent the other day, who was an atheist, so felt fairly disillusioned with his local Tower Hamlets community. He said he always rolled his eyes at how much people in the area seemed to praise Saudi Arabia as a perfect society. That depressed me.another_richard said:
Embrace your inner multicultural and appreciate how the electoral practices of Bangladesh are enriching British politics.Socrates said:
Is there not going to be an investigation into the turnout nearly doubling in one election cycle? The whole postal voting seems an affront to the secret ballot too.AndyJS said:
Big surprise. Tower Hamlets council are an absolute disgrace in every way.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. h/t labourlist
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if clegg resigns, could a more left leaning libdem leader cause some lab lib switchers to
return and cause labour share to drop?
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Scotland: 2 SNP 2 LAB 1 CON 1 UKIP0
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Did we expect anything less from the mainstream media, who are obsessed with smearing UKIP? I suppose they will bury deep down the fact that UKIP refuse to work with them, if they mention it at all.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
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Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?0
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In my inner London borough UKIP weren't on the ballot for the council elections, so who knows what the read across is.timmo said:
In the outer london boroughs that will certainly have been the case..MrJones said:
London *might* have a much bigger Ukip Euro vote than the locals.Grandiose said:
I wasn't convinced by Kellner. London is, however, possibly the exception because of the exceptionally low UKIP % there. Labour gains in e.g. West Midlands likely to be the same as elsewhere IMO.kle4 said:
Not trolled, but apparently London and othes will see Labour through.TheScreamingEagles said:Seriously, I'm not being trolled when I'm reading that the Tories could push Labour into third?
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Yes, Labour are toast in 2015.JamesM said:Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?
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Shhh... let them whip themselves into a frenzy of SUKIP pleasure tonight. It'll be swiftly followed by their IndyRef hangover.Carnyx said:
No - but tsunamis go both ways. And remember this is a party political election not the indy ref, and that both SNP and the Coalition are the parties of government at present, in the middle of their terms.SouthamObserver said:
There's certainly no tidal wave for the nationalist parties, is there?DavidL said:
No. About 36% at the moment. As I say not unencouraging for a unionist.SouthamObserver said:
Do SNP plus Greens get over 40%?DavidL said:My guess is that London will yet again help out a very ordinary Labour campaign and get them into second, if only just.
The SNP are currently 20K short of that third seat. It is looking increasingly unlikely. I don't know how much this can be read across to the Indyref but it is not exactly nationalism rampant. The Unionist parties are going to have a larger share despite the demise of the Scottish Lib Dems.
SNP down (so far) -0.07 percentage points (I think the BBC means), and still first, with same no of MEPs - and almost got a third. Tories down 3.52 points, lose 1/4 of their MEPs. LDs lose 100% of MEPs. I think the Tories and LDs would have been happy with the kind of 'defeat' inflicted on 'Salmond'!
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NW declaration...0
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Twitter sphere reporting LibDems have won an MEP in the southeast...0
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LDs on nearly 8% in SE.
Looks like UKIP 4, Con 3, Lab 1, Green 1, LD 1?0 -
BBC needs bars not colour for their heat map.
Not much colour contrast on TV.0 -
North West incoming0
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What a comb over. Good effort lad0
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@DPJHodges: Genuinely coming to the view broadcasters take no notice of their own coverage. No analysis of fact Ukip is not taking votes from Tories.JamesM said:Surely this is no too bad for the Conservatives? Don't get me wrong losing seats and votes is bad, but they seem to be down 4% on a 2009 score when they were an opposition just a year from the General Election. They have been in government for 4 years and have seen UKIP rise massively, but have not suffered as badly as one would have thought...no?
@DPJHodges: Ukip on 30%. Tory vote down just 3%.0 -
fitalass said:
What is the overall state of affairs when it comes to vote share?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/vote2014/eu-uk-results0 -
That'll be a change then.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
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The difference is that Sinn Fein can hide behind the "peacemaker" tag by agreeing to a deal. Le Pen can't do that.SeanT said:
Sinn Fein used to be the electoral wing of the IRA, and SF leaders ordered the torture of execution of single mothers given to comforting dying British soldiers.Grandiose said:
Marine is the acceptable face of a deeply unacceptable party.SeanT said:
Marine le Pen is a very different politician to her (undoubtedly unsavoury) father. She could be the Gerry Adams/Alex Salmond that leads a reprehensible and downright nasty party into respectable government.TheScreamingEagles said:I've always said France was a nation of T*ssers.
Now they've proved it.
Front national win France.
We have seen the same process dozens of times, elsewhere.
Sinn Fein are now an established party of NI government.
I see no reason why the mildly quasi-fascist party of the FN could not evolve into a relatively sensible party of French elite politics. This surely is the unique gift of democracy: it absorbs and tames the wild and violent radicals.0 -
Big swing to Lab in North West. Very solid 2nd for UKIP0
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North West declaration:
Lab 594,063
UKIP 481,932
Con 351,000
Green 123,075
LD 105,487
BNP 32,826
Pirate 8,597
NO2EU 5,402
Soc Equ 5,0670 -
Labour were always going to win in the NW with their strongholds in Manchester, Liverpool and Knowsley.0
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Remember this folks.
A good proportion of the UKIP vote has "swing voter" stamped all over it.
Policies are being rewritten as we speak.0 -
Wow. I knew the Lib Dems had done badly in terms of seats, but losing HALF of you vote. That's disastrous.0
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Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?0 -
If UKIP are to stand a chance in Doncaster North, they need exactly the right candidate (a factor which doesn't apply in the Euros, of course). Without that, EdM will be safe.IOS said:TSE
You are factually wrong UKIP did not win Ed Milibands seat. They won doncaster. Ed Milibands seat voted solidly Labour.
So yes, David does seem outlandish.0 -
@patrickwintour: The LDs say they have got one seat in the South East. They may be on the board.0
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Kippers get the last seat, good lads.0
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They did a whole bit on exactly that just before interviewing Farage.Socrates said:
Did we expect anything less from the mainstream media, who are obsessed with smearing UKIP? I suppose they will bury deep down the fact that UKIP refuse to work with them, if they mention it at all.TheScreamingEagles said:Looking at the front pages, there's a danger for Farage, that UKIP get lumped in with Front national.
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Bye bye Chris Davies MEP ,saviour of fish, pubs, cars, europe and mountain rescue.0
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All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.0
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Good news for the Lib Dems in the NW: they beat the BNP for that oh-so-important fifth place.....0
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Northwest:
3 UKIP
3 Lab
2 Con0 -
Must be nice living in a more relaxed age. (Not being sarcastic).Stuart_Dickson said:All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.
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Combined right-wing vote tonight is 54%. Might be worth considering when people say we need to aim for median voter.0
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Labour now going to **** on about the BNP. Milliband comments laughable and get the due treatment.0
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Oh dear...laughs0
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Between LD and 2nd Lab for last seat, I think. Depends on any areas still to come in.MikeL said:LDs on nearly 8% in SE.
Looks like UKIP 4, Con 3, Lab 1, Green 1, LD 1?
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The Labour 'victory' speech in NW region is drawing derision. No doubting they did well there, though.0
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North West Labour wins, UKIP second, Greens again beat UKIP. 3 Lab, 3 UKIP, 2 Tory, Griffin out, Greens again beat LDs0
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Why should the Euro-election change anything in that respect?Stuart_Dickson said:
I look forward to Darling welcoming UKIP into the Better Together teamfitalass said:I doubt a UKIP MEP gain in Scotland will bode well for the Yes vote betting in the Indy Ref?
Stuart_Dickson said:
CON win in Jim Murphy's seat.fitalass said:Twitter
Rob Murray @robmurray11 3m
East Renfrewshire council: @ScotTories 8,044, Labour: 7,623, SNP: 6,564 #EPScot0 -
Lib Dems won Shetland.JackW said:Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?
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Feeling a bit sorry for my parents at the moment who are both staunch LD supporters.0
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Even the sound system thinks Lib Dems are not worth a hearing.0
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I'm not holding my breath.Socrates said:Combined right-wing vote tonight is 54%. Might be worth considering when people say we need to aim for median voter.
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Good result for Labour in NW.
But it looks like I might win my bet with Mr Fett.0 -
Andy JS And his distant descendant, David Campbell Bannermann, the Tory-UKIP-Tory switcher, has retained his Eastern MEP seat tonight0
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UNS forecast update after 7 regions
UKIP 25
Con 20
Lab 19 (third in votes)
LD 0
Green 3
Tories ahead of Lab by 1.9% now0 -
OK, so excluding the Western Isles (an SNP seat), the final(ish) tally is:
Scottish National Party 386,193 28.91% (-0.07)
Labour 346,377 25.93% (+5.11)
Conservative 230,569 17.26% (+0.39)
UK Independence Party 139,687 10.46% (+5.23)
Green 107,805 8.07 (+0.77)
Liberal Democrat 95,076 7.12% (-4.42)
Britain First 13,551 1.01% (n/a)
British National Party 10,150 0.76% (-1.70)
NO2EU 6,388 0.48% (-0.40)0 -
..and down here for the reasons I gave upthread. Yes, top and bottom. Just nothing in between!Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Lib Dems won Shetland.JackW said:Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?
Edit: I meant on the previous thread, not upthread. Champagne is kicking in!
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Defeated Pox MEP - a "typical mid teem protest vote". Yes mate, losing all your seats happens to governing parties all the time.
Which cretin in party high command decided that "we're proud of our campaign" and "mid term protest" were suitable lines to take?0 -
Lab 14.96No_Offence_Alan said:
Between LD and 2nd Lab for last seat, I think. Depends on any areas still to come in.MikeL said:LDs on nearly 8% in SE.
Looks like UKIP 4, Con 3, Lab 1, Green 1, LD 1?
LD 7.91
LD look safe - comfortably above 50% of Lab.
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And Orkney, too, of course.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Lib Dems won Shetland.JackW said:Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?0 -
McMillan Scott.
Ewww.0 -
Yes to both. Ladbrokes just tweeted:JackW said:Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?
Ladbrokes: Nick Clegg is 25/1 to be next Governor of Gibraltar
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So in fact the Tories were well ahead of UKIP in Scotland, in contrast to the polls.0
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Just updated the thread header with the North West result
Now 'scuse me whilst I'm go and cheer the fact Nick Griffin lost.0 -
Thanks.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Lib Dems won Shetland.JackW said:Do we have the numbers from Shetland and Gibraltar.
Might the yellow peril win top and bottom ?
Will the apes on the Rock swing it for the LibDems ?
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Eh...pundits thought clegg beat farage?0
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Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk 6m
D’hondt you want me baby? >> “@Conorpope: Nick Griffin will lose his seat tonight.
pic.twitter.com/hkmTVlMUIk”0 -
Lib Dem line is now that the voters have made a terrible mistake and are now coming to realise that.0
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I've met Graham Watson a few times, liked him. Seemed a very decent bloke fwiw.0
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They will have the last laugh when the rest of Europe including the UK mainland are burning in satans sulphurous fires.AndyJS said:
Must be nice living in a more relaxed age. (Not being sarcastic).Stuart_Dickson said:All Scottish councils - with the exception of the Western Isles - have declared their results. As mentioned previously, the Western Isles will declare on Monday afternoon because they don't count votes on a Sunday.
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Correction (Sky figures changing)
UNS forecast update after 7 regions
UKIP 25
Lab 20
Con 19
LD 0
Green 3
Labour ahead again0 -
Theresa Griffin MeP was almost unlistenable0
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Lib Dem guy from Leeds clearly has no clue. "Im not going to fade away" No mate you arent cos no bugger has ever heard of you to begin with.0
