politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post
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Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
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Sorry NickNickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Corbyn is toxic to labour0 -
On the third of August you said this:rcs1000 said:
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.Black_Rook said:A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.
That day there was 938 reported cases.
Today, twelve days afterwards, there were 1012 reported cases.
An increase in reported cases which is lower than the increase in testing.5 -
And that is why electronic voting is such a bad idea: much easier to move a few electrons around than to dispose of millions of ballots.Scott_xP said:3 -
Good goal City0
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America would be in a very sorry state if "President trying to steal election" wasn't a big story across the country.rottenborough said:0 -
Hi Nick,NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
You have a great deal more experience and knowledge than me but I simply think Momentum has become utterly toxic and something that is only bad for the future electoral prospects of our party.
I think we will simply have to agree to disagree - but thanks for your service all the same. I had not realised it was you.0 -
Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
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If a new left-wing group wants to setup, something like Progress for the left, then that's fine for me. But Momentum is utterly toxic now.0
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I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.
https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/1 -
I've watched live sport at the ground with other spectators while drinking beer this afternoon.
It was village cricket but it was great.2 -
He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.Foxy said:
I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.
https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/0 -
Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)glw said:
Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
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Adopt the US Second Amendment? I didn't think they had moved that far right...SandyRentool said:
Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
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Interesting points in the comments about how one of the reasons this might be cutting through is not necessarily to do with the direct issue of the effect of mail in ballots. It is that by playing politics with the USPS for the purpose of disrupting them, Trump is actually putting in jeopardy things that matter more to people - medicine, social security cheques, pay cheques (and even things like birthday presents!). That's what you get when all you think about is politics, and forget that the business of Government is about far more than getting elected or putting one over on your opponents.glw said:
America would be in a very sorry state if "President trying to steal election" wasn't a big story across the country.rottenborough said:0 -
It will come in handy as an excuse for Starmer to remove them.SandyRentool said:
Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Ah, my coat...0 -
I think we need to go all out to get the Third Amendment adopted in the UK.Foxy said:
Adopt the US Second Amendment? I didn't think they had moved that far right...SandyRentool said:
Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
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I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.Fysics_Teacher said:
Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)glw said:
Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
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I don't think Momentum will be expelled, for what it is worth. I think a significant bulk of their membership will leave when Corbyn and co are expelled.0
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I agree, but that manifesto is still on his website. He is no Blairite.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.Foxy said:
I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.
https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/0 -
It’s much easier just to use logs.ydoethur said:
I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.Fysics_Teacher said:
Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)glw said:
Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
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To protect us from a pandemic.Scott_xP said:
A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.0 -
I’ll take your word for it.Fysics_Teacher said:
It’s much easier just to use logs.ydoethur said:
I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.Fysics_Teacher said:
Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)glw said:
Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
I’ve only ever used logs for burning in my stove, but I could have a go at using them for division if you think it would help.0 -
I believe it's not linked to anymore, am I correct?Foxy said:
I agree, but that manifesto is still on his website. He is no Blairite.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.Foxy said:
I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changerCorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.
https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/
I never believed he was a Blairite, he's slightly to the left of Miliband just pragmatic and based on what the evidence actually says is popular.
Hence the patriotic angle0 -
I am Jeremy Corbyn0
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I watched the whole thing this morning, and I thought it went well.Theuniondivvie said:Fred Scuttle doing his thing.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1294701129478045702?s=20
Photos of Boris looking like a bit of a prat are not exactly news.0 -
I would tend to agree that we need a little longer to be sure that foreign travel isn't going to cause a big uplift in cases, but holidays did resume some time ago and haven't caused any apparent problems up until now, so we shall see.rcs1000 said:
(1) Because we've reduced social distancing measuresBlack_Rook said:
That much is obvious. I merely question why we should assume that cases are about to skyrocket.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.Black_Rook said:
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.rcs1000 said:
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.Black_Rook said:A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
and
(2) Lots of people will be returning from places which have had big CV19 second waves
Don't forget that people are at their most infectious in the week before they show symptoms.
Let me turn the question around: given everywhere else that has lots of travel with infected parts of the world and have reduced social distancing measures, why shouldn't we have a second wave?
As for the reduction of social distancing measures, none of the major loosening measures adopted prior to August (i.e. long enough ago to have fed through into more widespread illness) have caused any generalised increase in cases at all; there have been some isolated outbreaks associated with pubs, and that's about it.
It remains the case that, whilst detected cases are gradually creeping upwards - something that can easily be explained as a consequence of more, and more targeted, testing - all of the other indicators (triage calls, hospitalisations, ventilator bed occupancy and mortality) are either low and stable or continuing to trend downwards. There is no evidence at all of any sustained deterioration in the Covid situation at any juncture since we passed the peak in April, and no particular reason to suppose that this will change imminently, either.0 -
This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.rottenborough said:
Are you referring to this?CorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/12947120023220142110 -
The overwhelming majority of the public will sigh relief when they see Corbyn removed IMHOYokes said:
This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.rottenborough said:
Are you referring to this?CorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/12947120023220142111 -
People have short memories, particularly about BJ being lots of things.Fysics_Teacher said:
I watched the whole thing this morning, and I thought it went well.Theuniondivvie said:Fred Scuttle doing his thing.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1294701129478045702?s=20
Photos of Boris looking like a bit of a prat are not exactly news.0 -
City 3 - 1 down0
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Oh I just can't bear it.Theuniondivvie said:Fred Scuttle doing his thing.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1294701129478045702?s=20
And no election till 2024.0 -
It's a bit weird all these Twitter users saying Labour isn't left-wing anymore.
As far as I know, they still support mostly all the policies from 2019, which even I don't agree with0 -
https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
Nick, I'm not and never have been a Labour member or supporter - I've had enough problems with my own Party.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
Nobody compels anyone to be a member of a party - if you want to stay and argue a viewpoint, fine, but if that is rejected in favour of a policy platform which you might not personally support but may find enough favour with the public to win Labour sufficient votes to form the next Government, what will you do?
Jeremy Corbyn was happy enough to stand on Blair's manifesto in 1997 just as Blair himself stood on Foot's programme in 1983 and I suspect neither was wholly enamoured.
My Party right or wrong only gets you so far as I've discovered and while loyalty is a virtue often to be admired it can cause personal issues with principle.
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Putting the charlatans who run the Test and Trace system in charge? What could possibly go wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
The Scottish subsample has an unreasonably low SNP share give the overall figure is SNP 4%.Foxy said:
What was the Green? And the Scottish subsample...CorrectHorseBattery said:Big problem for Labour is how low that Lib Dem vote is.
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That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.0 -
Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
I forget how young some posters are...ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for it.Fysics_Teacher said:
It’s much easier just to use logs.ydoethur said:
I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.Fysics_Teacher said:
Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)glw said:
Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.Black_Rook said:
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.CorrectHorseBattery said:Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here
I’ve only ever used logs for burning in my stove, but I could have a go at using them for division if you think it would help.
It’s easy enough. You convert both numbers to their respective logarithms, then subtract the divisor from the dividend which gives you the logarithm of the answer. All you then have to do is convert that to a normal number and there you are! What could be simpler?
And yes, I used this method at school because it is easier than trying to do long division by hand once the numbers have more than a couple of digits.0 -
It’s called the No True Scotsman fallacy.CorrectHorseBattery said:It's a bit weird all these Twitter users saying Labour isn't left-wing anymore.
As far as I know, they still support mostly all the policies from 2019, which even I don't agree with
Roughly, what they think is right, and anyone who doesn’t agree with them even on the tiniest detail is wrong.
It’s profoundly anti-democratic and stupid, especially as most of their ideas don’t actually work and/or are terribly damaging in practice, and is the reason why much though I despise Johnson and Cummings I was hugely relieved to see Corbyn get his arse handed to him last December.
Such people even if they are not actually evil - although some are - are very dangerous.
Good night.0 -
So they can skip their first term of A levels?another_richard said:
That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.0 -
Merged as far as I readalex_ said:
Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
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TUSC tended to get about 300 votes per candidate.Yokes said:
This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.rottenborough said:
Are you referring to this?CorrectHorseBattery said:We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/12947120023220142110 -
No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed1 -
Oh dearwilliamglenn said:0 -
Probably over-egging it.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
More confirmation that they're a dick, if such confirmation were needed.0 -
Exams take about two weeks.Foxy said:
So they can skip their first term of A levels?another_richard said:
That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.
If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.0 -
She's finally accepted that the Brexiteers have won.williamglenn said:0 -
Not a terrible idea. Hopefully there will be a lot of fundamental changes to both in the process.Scott_xP said:0 -
And the award for most unsurprising news of the month goes to...
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/12947374476251299850 -
OK, many thanks for that. I see a fair amount of outdoor pig rearing in this area which I also understood was unusual in Denmark, although I may be years out of date as to the extent of purely indoor rearing in the UK. It is a shame labelling isn't clearer, particularly when it comes to prepared foods.NickPalmer said:
Britain chose to outlaw sow stalls (basically cages BEFORE giving birth) in 1999 - it was a government decision which as I recall I was slightly involved in. They're still legal in Denmark, so you're right on that. Basically EU legislation gives a fairly low level playing field, and some countries choose to improve on it. In the same way, some EU countries have pulled ahead of us by banning the farrowing crates that I was talking about - Germany is now starting to phase them out. At some point, I expect this to be levelled up across the EU.Flatlander said:
The 'level playing field' in other words?
As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?
I would disagree with you on lots of things but not on this, although I'm not someone who would ban animal rearing entirely as some would seem to want to. Grazing (and foraging) animals have always been part of the landscape.
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I think it is true.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
What the PM is doing in that photo I don’t know, but it is not a salute that I’ve ever seen given that his fingers are curled.
I would like to see the full clip before passing judgement.0 -
I'm quite taken by my vision of Trump as a third world dictator.
Its easy to imagine him hosting the Rumble in the Jungle or declaring himself King of Scotland.
The corruption and persecutions even more so.0 -
Wasn't PHE set up by Lansley? Another Grayling-level fool.0
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The trouble with all this "protect against a pandemic" stuff. Knowing what we know now, how do we think the country would collectively respond to a repeat of the Swine flu pandemic of 2010? What lessons are actually going to be learnt from this? Will any new body set up end up dealing permanently in 'worst case' scenarios, or would there be scope for balanced responses that didn't wreck the economy and normal life?
Is it likely that we would pick up early enough that despite being destined to infect 1/3 of the planet, it would be basically completely harmless? And/or despite extremely low death rates, would enough anecdotal stories of long term damage in isolated cases emerge that everyone would be confined to their homes anyway?0 -
How long to mark? What about the pupils going to separate sixth forms?another_richard said:
Exams take about two weeks.Foxy said:
So they can skip their first term of A levels?another_richard said:
That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.
If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.
Sure, anyone can produce an algorithm to give the same proportions of grades as last year. Indeed give some monkeys some dice.
The point though is to give marks out in proportion to performance...0 -
Most pupils would do worse than their predictions and probably worse than the algorithm given that most will not have looked at the subjects since March.another_richard said:
That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.0 -
Twitter screen grab says "scrapped and replaced". But then says "Covid 19 work to be merged with NHS test and trace". Covid-19 may have been PHE's biggest test. But it's hardly the only thing it's responsible for.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Merged as far as I readalex_ said:
Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
As there are more GCSE grades than A-level grades I would expect there to be more change.CorrectHorseBattery said:
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my half time bet on Lyon at 45 to win the CL looks good, all they have to do is beat Bayern on Tuesday.0
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Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
Maybe they just have pretty good public administration and data collection agencies and are actually doing a lot of testing and counting of cases.Andy_JS said:Why is Peru doing so badly re Covid-19?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/2 -
Total, epic fuck up by Guardiola tonight. He can't stop himself arseing about with his team selection and formation and yet again has lost a Champions League Quarter Final he should have won. City have lost against a team they are miles better than and it's Pep's fault.0
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What else do you expect from a clown?moonshine said:
Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
That is exactly the sort of mistake I would make, so I’m going to sympathise with Dawn on this one.williamglenn said:0 -
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For what it's worth, I reckon Watson should not be in the Lords but I just am watching the Corbynite response to this with popcorn0
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I thought jazz hands were the preferred way of applauding now?kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/clapping-banned-manchester-university-students-union-jazz-hands-applause-a8566531.html1 -
Probably right, 'piccanninies' and 'water melons smiles' is more like being a racist.moonshine said:
Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
It's like everything. Case by case. Just depends. The context. The atmosphere. The saluter and the salutee. In this case I think a smile and a bow - and possibly an elbow bump - would have been better.Yokes said:
No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed0 -
Maybe Dawn entered the letter in the computer wrong0
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You are right. This is a mistake by Starmer.CorrectHorseBattery said:For what it's worth, I reckon Watson should not be in the Lords but I just am watching the Corbynite response to this with popcorn
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There's always a multitude of reasons for not doing something when you don't want to do it.Foxy said:
How long to mark? What about the pupils going to separate sixth forms?another_richard said:
Exams take about two weeks.Foxy said:
So they can skip their first term of A levels?another_richard said:
That's an easy one to solve.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.
Then we compare grades to predictions.
And wont that be interesting.
If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.
Sure, anyone can produce an algorithm to give the same proportions of grades as last year. Indeed give some monkeys some dice.
The point though is to give marks out in proportion to performance...
And there will be no shortage of pupils who will be very happy with their GCSEs and will certainly not want the last bit of their five month summer holiday being interrupted.
Want an easy way to to give marks in proportion to performance ?
Then take each individual's predictions and reduce one of their A levels down by one grade, if they did four A levels then reduce two down by one grade.
Random certainly but the whole country would be treated the same.0 -
Thanks! Yes, Compassion in World Farming (the charity whose UK arm I run) isn't vegan or vegetarian - we argue that for the forseeable future there will be all kinds of food, so the priority is to treat the animals decently. We do think that over time people should eat less meat, partly because of the environmental impact of intensive farms based on massive grain imports, but if the animals get a decent period out of doors and are treated well, that's fine. We're friends with the Pasture-Fed Livestock Association, which is all about outdoor cattle farming etc.Flatlander said:
OK, many thanks for that. I see a fair amount of outdoor pig rearing in this area which I also understood was unusual in Denmark, although I may be years out of date as to the extent of purely indoor rearing in the UK. It is a shame labelling isn't clearer, particularly when it comes to prepared foods.NickPalmer said:
Britain chose to outlaw sow stalls (basically cages BEFORE giving birth) in 1999 - it was a government decision which as I recall I was slightly involved in. They're still legal in Denmark, so you're right on that. Basically EU legislation gives a fairly low level playing field, and some countries choose to improve on it. In the same way, some EU countries have pulled ahead of us by banning the farrowing crates that I was talking about - Germany is now starting to phase them out. At some point, I expect this to be levelled up across the EU.Flatlander said:
The 'level playing field' in other words?
As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?
I would disagree with you on lots of things but not on this, although I'm not someone who would ban animal rearing entirely as some would seem to want to. Grazing (and foraging) animals have always been part of the landscape.
One of our campaigns is for clearer labelling, and there Denmark is ahead of us in their domestic sales - they have four welfare levels above the legal minimum for each of chickens and pigs, agreed by government, industry and animal welfare groups, and it's agreed that supermarkets can charge 10% more for each level. So people who are feeling reasonably well off can go for level 4 and pay 40% more, etc. We'd love to see something like that here, and a consultation is expected in the autumn. In general, the current government has made lots of positive noises on farm animal welfare, and the whole Defra team is helpful. They know my politics but we don't let that get in the way.0 -
Which does rather beg the question of why any dictatorial regime, when deciding upon how much theatre to employ in its fake elections, does not just go with electronic? Not that I wish to be in the business of advising dictators how to be more effective. The Chinese government probably provide that service.Fysics_Teacher said:
And that is why electronic voting is such a bad idea: much easier to move a few electrons around than to dispose of millions of ballots.Scott_xP said:0 -
I'd rather never show appreciation for anything ever again.Fysics_Teacher said:
I thought jazz hands were the preferred way of applauding now?kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/clapping-banned-manchester-university-students-union-jazz-hands-applause-a8566531.html0 -
Good to hear that you support Starmer, Nick. I trust then that you won't be voting for the 6 on the Momentum NEC constituency slate, because they patently don't. There is a difference between a left-wing ginger group and an organised faction which from its public voice at least now seems to spend every waking hour doing everything in its power to undermine the person who is clearly and obviously the party's best and indeed only hope in 2024.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
Personally I'm going to put Ann Black as No 1 on my ballot, because I am sick and tired of the factionalism within the party. That by Momentum's warped definition will put me on the "right", even though she used to be on the left slate until Momentum booted her off because she couldn't be relied on to always toe the party-within-a-party line.2 -
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-and-the-piccaninny-smearTheuniondivvie said:
Probably right, 'piccanninies' and 'water melons smiles' is more like being a racist.moonshine said:
Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
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It's worth a chuckle, but is clearly not a big deal. It's not as though I had known it was VJ day until I saw the news, so I'm not one to judge.Fysics_Teacher said:
That is exactly the sort of mistake I would make, so I’m going to sympathise with Dawn on this one.williamglenn said:0 -
Starmer also has my full support and I am probably as left wing as many of Momentum but I simply cannot support such a toxic organisation who spend time attacking people like me as BlairitesWulfrun_Phil said:
Good to hear that you support Starmer, Nick. I trust then that you won't be voting for the 6 on the Momentum NEC constituency slate, because they patently don't. There is a difference between a left-wing ginger group and an organised faction which from its public voice at least now seems to spend every waking hour doing everything in its power to undermine the person who is clearly and obviously the party's best and indeed only hope in 2024.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
Personally I'm going to put Ann Black as No 1 on my ballot, because I am sick and tired of the factionalism within the party. That by Momentum's warped definition will put me on the "right", even though she used to be on the left slate until Momentum booted her off because she couldn't be relied on to always toe the party-within-a-party line.0 -
IMO people need to stop taking offence so easily, especially "on behalf" of other people who probably don't agree with them anyway.moonshine said:
Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...kinabalu said:
It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed3 -
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I'm not familiar with the expression 'tawny skinned' before.rottenborough said:0 -
The context was a minute or so of chat between a nonagenarian veteran of the war against Japan and the PM. I don’t remember this one being shown, but the one they did show looked fine (Prince Charles was getting a lot more air time).kinabalu said:
It's like everything. Case by case. Just depends. The context. The atmosphere. The saluter and the salutee. In this case I think a smile and a bow - and possibly an elbow bump - would have been better.Yokes said:
No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873
Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53786610
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You're capable of self reflection, so that's clearly not true.CorrectHorseBattery said:I am Jeremy Corbyn
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Was talking to CHB about his proposed purge! As for me, it'd have to be pretty drastic to make me leave - sudden embrace of austerity to fgill the gap left by Boris, perhpasl. I always felt that there were enough good things to enthuse about that I could put up with stuff I was more dubious about. I think most members feel that way, and mass expulsions would be picking an unnecessary fight.stodge said:
Nick, I'm not and never have been a Labour member or supporter - I've had enough problems with my own Party.NickPalmer said:
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
Nobody compels anyone to be a member of a party - if you want to stay and argue a viewpoint, fine, but if that is rejected in favour of a policy platform which you might not personally support but may find enough favour with the public to win Labour sufficient votes to form the next Government, what will you do?
Jeremy Corbyn was happy enough to stand on Blair's manifesto in 1997 just as Blair himself stood on Foot's programme in 1983 and I suspect neither was wholly enamoured.
My Party right or wrong only gets you so far as I've discovered and while loyalty is a virtue often to be admired it can cause personal issues with principle.2
This discussion has been closed.