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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,820
    ydoethur said:

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/30/towards-a-rational-immigration-policy/
    Thank you!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,067
    Pagan2 said:

    Debenhams was a dead man walking before covid it just hadn't laid down and died yet. Covid just accelerated the death scene
    Thargest Department store chanin in Germany Galaria Kaufhoff/Karstadt announced in July many shop closures. Interestingly this announcement has allowed then to renegotiate the rent they pay for their shops quite agressively, and save at least 12 stores from the Axe. This is because the buildings are designed to be department stores, and the owners realise they will either have to spend millions changing the buildings for a different purpose or face the prospect of sitting on ghost stores.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    In the sense May was re elected yes though I also said there were more undecideds than ever before a week before polling day
    But she was not re-elected - but propped up by a small minority party.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not normally an authoritarian - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.
    Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

    Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064
    eristdoof said:

    Thargest Department store chanin in Germany Galaria Kaufhoff/Karstadt announced in July many shop closures. Interestingly this announcement has allowed then to renegotiate the rent they pay for their shops quite agressively, and save at least 12 stores from the Axe. This is because the buildings are designed to be department stores, and the owners realise they will either have to spend millions changing the buildings for a different purpose or face the prospect of sitting on ghost stores.
    I believe that Debenhams has already tried that, in a previous cost cutting round.

    Ah yes, found it....

    https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/12/debenhams-seeks-rent-cuts-20-stores/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256

    Yep, by their equivocation shall ye know them.

    I see a distinct possibility that even if the Dems win the EC vote narrowly that Trump will use his own and GOP vote suppression shenanigans (which will have kept the Dem win narrow) as justification for challenging the result. That's just the sort of shameless crooks that they are.
    I happen to think it will not be close but if I'm wrong and it is, yes, god only knows what shenanigans will ensue. I do have a recurring vision of Trump leaving the White House in a horizontal position - a sedative and stretcher type scenario - nothing violent - but that is probably just my way of picturing the result.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited August 2020
    I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Do the independents do a good job? Are they a cohesive group with a plan or "proper" independents. I've never lived in a place where independents have done well, I like the idea in principle but no idea how effective it would be in reality.
    An Independent group though is surely a contradiction in terms!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I do tend to agree that Trump's caution relative dovishness has some benefits. His bone spurs were no bad thing... I think he shies away from that sort of area partly because he know's he's particularly vulnerable to the charge he's sending young people to die when he dodged service.

    But I don't agree he's been benign on the international stage at all - being (to an extent rightly) cautious on commiting troops isn't what makes someone benign by itself. He's allowed - indeed helped - Putin massively to expand his influence in a way that is hugely harmful. He's undermined international bodies like the UN and NATO at every opportunity. He's disengaged completely from global action on climate change. He's set a template for a generation of populists who tend to be damaging to their own countries and distabilising to the world more broadly. These are no small matters.
    Could you explain what you mean by "He's allowed - indeed helped - Putin massively to expand his influence in a way that is hugely harmful. "?

    Under Obama, Putin took Crimea and basically controlled Eastern Ukraine, as well as everything else he was doing in the Caucasus. The biggest increase Russia had in influence was then, in part because Obama didn't want to look stupid after laughing at Mitt Romney in the 2012 debates for saying Russia was a threat. Bar Syria (which is a tragedy but not sure the US should be getting involved there), Russia is causing far fewer issues than it did several years back
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064
    Stocky said:

    I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.
    The bit from that I find interesting is that -

    "in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

    Is that correct?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,541
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    That’s bizarre. Even Lukashenko wasn’t thick enough to admit he’d rigged the elections in advance.
    There's a uniqueness about Trump, where he's both watching predictions of what may unfold on news channels, tweeting about them, and then attempting to actively fulfil and realise these predictions too, to participate in this continuous media process which he lives off.

    The only parallel I can think of is David Bowie's character in The Man Who Fell To Earth, who incessantly watches mounted banks of 20 TV's and different channels at the same time, from the solitude of his hotel room ; although that character was more benign.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    Stocky said:

    I posted the gov.uk link earlier this morning. I agree with its content. Stupid comment by Bendor.
    Are blogs by anonymous 'Media Officers' now a common feature of .gov.uk sites? It's the first time one has come to my attention.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064
    MrEd said:

    Could you explain what you mean by "He's allowed - indeed helped - Putin massively to expand his influence in a way that is hugely harmful. "?

    Under Obama, Putin took Crimea and basically controlled Eastern Ukraine, as well as everything else he was doing in the Caucasus. The biggest increase Russia had in influence was then, in part because Obama didn't want to look stupid after laughing at Mitt Romney in the 2012 debates for saying Russia was a threat. Bar Syria (which is a tragedy but not sure the US should be getting involved there), Russia is causing far fewer issues than it did several years back
    The recent decline in Russia's interventions abroad is probably related to the collapse in oil price. Russia is very much an oil economy now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158

    The bit from that I find interesting is that -

    "in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

    Is that correct?
    In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

    That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

    In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    This appears more like a Belarusian election as the day progresses. What (insider?) information do you base this "tip" on?
    Well, apart from the KGB-inspired rigging (joking), the latest polls in Minnesota have tightened a lot in both the Senate and Presidential polls (+3 for the Dems I think was the last poll for both). Nevada was close in 2016, and I would imagine being seen to want the economy re-open will be a winner in somewhere like Las Vegas that depends on business coming back to normal. In Virginia, there are a lot of anger at the legislature's actions and I wouldn't be surprised to see that as the shock of the night
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256

    No, because Trump is so non-standard I think there's a bigger chance that he will lose and a far bigger chance that he will heavily.
    Ah Ok. Got you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064
    ydoethur said:

    In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

    That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

    In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.
    Thank you - that last sentence is the crucial bit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192
    ydoethur said:

    In 96% of cases the notes I play on the organ are the right note or the note next to it.

    That does not mean 96% of the notes I play are correct.

    In fact they’re both right - 40% were regraded, but 39% were graded down and 1% graded up.

    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1294382373782593539
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    The recent decline in Russia's interventions abroad is probably related to the collapse in oil price. Russia is very much an oil economy now.
    Oil has been a big factor in recent months but it rose up to late 2018 and even then fell to just below levels when Trump was elected. However. the claim was Putin has massively increased his influence under Trump. It is not showing up in too many places bar Syria
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    justin124 said:

    I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.

    Could we use him to set GCSE grades?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    The bit from that I find interesting is that -

    "in 96% of cases grades were the same as submitted by teachers or were just one grade different."

    Is that correct?
    I don`t know for sure, but 61% getting the same as the center assessed grade, 35% geting one grade less and 4% more than one grade less sounds about right from what I`ve read.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256
    edited August 2020
    Stocky said:

    Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

    Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents. For that matter, how did one get anywhere near the Rep nomination in the first place?
    Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    edited August 2020

    Thank you - that last sentence is the crucial bit.
    Roughly speaking 60% of grades were what teachers gave out. 36% were adjusted by one grade, 4% by two or more.

    Next week, it is expected to be 60% of grades adjusted, because the algorithm - which as we can see just by looking at the way it operates and the more or less random results it has been giving out, is deeply flawed, and will have less data to work with - is setting a higher percentage of them due to greater student numbers.

    However, that is in fact less serious because it’s GCSEs and there is time to sort things out. As I said yesterday, A-levels are 24 hours of shit or bust.

    Last Thursday, it was definitely shit.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,541
    edited August 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.
    Absolutely. Trump is a full five-year media and communications course and Phd in himself. A French thinker like Baudrillard would say he's a culmination of endlessly reproduced spectacle overwhelming democratic routes and institutional accountability.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192
    Stocky said:

    Yes, good post. He brings the nation into disrepute.

    Psychopaths shouldn`t be presidents.

    Or Prime Ministers (or their unsackable SPADs)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718

    Debenhams will be missed but the big one would be M & S
    They will close stores but food will save them for sure.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Roughly speaking 60% of grades were what teachers gave out. 36% were adjusted by one grade, 4% by two or more.

    Next week, it is expected to be 60% of grades adjusted, because the algorithm - which as we can see just by looking at the way it operates and the more or less random results it has been giving out, is deeply flawed - is setting a higher percentage of them due to greater student numbers.
    ydoethur - can you provide a link to how the algorithm works? My assumption is that they are looking at last year (or maybe last three year?) average for each particular school and trying to replicate the grade pattern with the teacher submitted pupil ranking order. I suppose it`s more complicated than that?

    Secondly, my daughter is SEN pupil (dyslexia) and is entitled to extra exam time - has this been filtered into the system anywhere - either in the algorithm or in the teacher rankings?
  • kinabalu said:

    I meant "driving" as in plotting out and navigating a complex geopolitical journey with a destination in the interests of the American people and of the wider world. That is (sadly) no can do. And (even more sadly) no want to do. But I do totally agree that he is capable of creeping around the assholes of other autocrats. Loves a "Strongman". Thinks he is one. And yes, that is a matter of serious concern.
    Yes, I think his relative harmlessness in foreign affairs is down mainly to the fact that he doesn't actually do a great deal. He lacks the drive, the intensity and above all he lacks a clear and coherent plan. In this respect I've always regarded him much more of a Mussolini* than a Hitler, an extemporising bullshitter rather than a vindictive zealot.

    *Not that I wish to see him end up like Benito. I have nothing against lampposts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885

    Do the independents do a good job? Are they a cohesive group with a plan or "proper" independents. I've never lived in a place where independents have done well, I like the idea in principle but no idea how effective it would be in reality.
    Locally they seem to have merged with the Greens.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,277
    justin124 said:

    In the UK postal voting has not been a readily available option until fairly recent years - the 1990s I believe.Prior tothat any postal vote application had to be backed by a doctor's signature or a statement by the applicant that their job could require them to be absent on the day of an election. Those away on holiday had no entitlement to a postal vote.
    So things have got better since then. Unless, like the US Republican party, you think the fewer people voting, the better.
  • kinabalu said:

    Now there's a question. Lots of answers, obvs, but I'd pick out the media as one of them. Intense relationship both ways, 24/7 fascination, great for ratings, they thought they were exploiting him but he knew he was exploiting them.
    Trump was the perfect candidate for the twatter era. Or turn that around and say the twatter era was perfect for Trump.

    Another aspect was that it was the failure of the GOP establishment which led to Trump.

    There was a decade ago on PB an American GOP supporter called StarsAndStripes.

    He was scornful of the idea that Trump could get nominated by the GOP and that if he did would suffer enormous defeat.
  • justin124 said:

    I know a guy who works as an astrologer. He has taken account of Trump & Biden's time, date and place of birth details. He gives Trump a 51% chance of winning on November 3rd.

    How do you 'work' as an astrologer? Who pays someone for that - the Met Office?
  • MrEd said:

    Oil has been a big factor in recent months but it rose up to late 2018 and even then fell to just below levels when Trump was elected. However. the claim was Putin has massively increased his influence under Trump. It is not showing up in too many places bar Syria
    In addition to the oil price, Putin has big problems with Covid.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I cannot argue with that as it was always a disaster waiting to happen with Williamson in charge

    I do understand it is quite wrong to give all pupils the teacher assessments this year if it is not normal practice, and of course ,while it is the popular choice, it may not be the correct choice as it stores up problems for future years

    I do not know the perfect answer and it seems the Welsh government is having similar problems to England

    However, if HMG had a competent Education Minister from the start it would have helped credibility but Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing
  • malcolmg said:

    They will close stores but food will save them for sure.
    Debenhams going will assist M & S in the high street to be fair
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,219



    Reagan wasn't just an actor. He had a complex and surprisingly intellectual background - he wrote many of his own speeches over the years. The acting was just his career before he moved into politics full time. Where he became a popular and successful Governor of California for 2 terms.

    As opposed to Trump. Who after a lifetime of staggering from one shitty business deal to another....

    Reagan's Evil Empire speech, combined with Soviet paranoia, damn nearly caused World War 3.

    Telling the truth does that sometimes.

    Thank God for Gordievsky.
  • In addition to the oil price, Putin has big problems with Covid.
    He solved them now he is vaccinating his population against covid !!!!!!!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    edited August 2020

    Yes, I think his relative harmlessness in foreign affairs is down mainly to the fact that he doesn't actually do a great deal. He lacks the drive, the intensity and above all he lacks a clear and coherent plan. In this respect I've always regarded him much more of a Mussolini* than a Hitler, an extemporising bullshitter rather than a vindictive zealot.

    *Not that I wish to see him end up like Benito. I have nothing against lampposts.
    Gramsci says hello from the vindictive zealot front.

    There's been a bit of a stushy about the R4 programme Great Lives because the historian Margaret MacMillan (who I usually have a bit of time for) chose Mussolini as her great life. I could see fascinating or interesting life, but great?
  • Yes, I think his relative harmlessness in foreign affairs is down mainly to the fact that he doesn't actually do a great deal. He lacks the drive, the intensity and above all he lacks a clear and coherent plan. In this respect I've always regarded him much more of a Mussolini* than a Hitler, an extemporising bullshitter rather than a vindictive zealot.

    *Not that I wish to see him end up like Benito. I have nothing against lampposts.
    Benny made the trains run on time whereas the overwhelming aspect of Trump is chaos.

    Trump's natural role is as a third world dictator.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing

    BoZo can't sack him.

    That would be the first crack in the Dam of "never backdown, never explain, never apologise"

    And if the notion catches hold that people can lose their job for being incompetent, well who knows where that could lead !

    Better not to take that risk...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,568
    ydoethur said:

    Roughly speaking 60% of grades were what teachers gave out. 36% were adjusted by one grade, 4% by two or more.

    Next week, it is expected to be 60% of grades adjusted, because the algorithm - which as we can see just by looking at the way it operates and the more or less random results it has been giving out, is deeply flawed, and will have less data to work with - is setting a higher percentage of them due to greater student numbers.

    However, that is in fact less serious because it’s GCSEs and there is time to sort things out. As I said yesterday, A-levels are 24 hours of shit or bust.

    Last Thursday, it was definitely shit.
    As pupils normally take many more GCSEs than A levels, then presumably more individuals would be affected by the wonky algorithm.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

    Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256

    Absolutely. Trump is a full five-year media and communications course and Phd in himself. A French thinker like Baudrillard would say he's a culmination of endlessly reproduced spectacle overwhelming democratic routes and institutional accountability.
    I agree with Baudrillard. Oh yes, what a sentence. Like that.

    But this is right. He is above everything a Trash TV star and he has turned the presidency of the US into Trash TV.

    Perfectly logical when you think about it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur - can you provide a link to how the algorithm works? My assumption is that they are looking at last year (or maybe last three year?) average for each particular school and trying to replicate the grade pattern with the teacher submitted pupil ranking order. I suppose it`s more complicated than that?

    Secondly, my daughter is SEN pupil (dyslexia) and is entitled to extra exam time - has this been filtered into the system anywhere - either in the algorithm or in the teacher rankings?
    1) This is a good article written by actual experts on the subject, not by the lowlifes at the DfE or Ofqual.

    https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/08/a-level-results-2020-how-have-grades-been-calculated/

    2) It should have been part of the teacher rankings, but it will not have been used as part of the algorithm.
  • Scott_xP said:

    BoZo can't sack him.

    That would be the first crack in the Dam of "never backdown, never explain, never apologise"

    And if the notion catches hold that people can lose their job for being incompetent, well who knows where that could lead !

    Better not to take that risk...
    I fully expect a September reshuffle and it is noticeable that conservative back benchers are openly attacking HMG and which hopefully will lead to change

    If not early 2021 should see letters going into the 1922 and if I was a conservative mp I would head the queue
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,343

    Do the independents do a good job? Are they a cohesive group with a plan or "proper" independents. I've never lived in a place where independents have done well, I like the idea in principle but no idea how effective it would be in reality.
    It depends on the Independent Group. Though for Town Councils remember that TCs have virtually no powers and tend to do the old Red Phone Box, 2 sets of swings and a local loo, and that's about it.

    For District Councils, my favourite was the "Boston Bypass Independents".

    Mansfield had an Independent Executive Mayor from 2002 to 2019. and was controlled by the Mansfield Independent for 3 of the 4 terms. I am not sure how well they have done, though much development and industrial growth has happened. But the Town Centre is not good.

    Ashfield District next door is currently independent controlled since last year, but these are a coherent party not a tactically compiled ragbag. They have their roots in LibDems, split off because of reasons, and minus the recent nutty Libdem policies on Brexit. So far they seem to be doing OK to me on balance - town centre funding coming in and good ideas, plus amusing spatettes with the new red wall Tory MP.

    A certain amount of "because we can" stuff from one or two Councillors. Personally I would take them over Tories or Labour at the moment.
  • Fishing said:

    Reagan's Evil Empire speech, combined with Soviet paranoia, damn nearly caused World War 3.

    Telling the truth does that sometimes.

    Thank God for Gordievsky.
    "Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Reagan in Berlin, 1987.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    Foxy said:

    As pupils normally take many more GCSEs than A levels, then presumably more individuals would be affected by the wonky algorithm.
    And many more pupils take GCSEs than A-levels.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

    Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.

    Pretty certain I saw it a week or more ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064
    kamski said:

    So things have got better since then. Unless, like the US Republican party, you think the fewer people voting, the better.
    Hard to see much evidence that it has improved turnout -

    image
  • Pretty certain I saw it a week or more ago.
    Did you have any thoughts on it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,242
    kinabalu said:

    !! I'm not normally an authoritarian !! - let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm afraid this is the only acceptable view on this one. And it really has nothing to do with left/right or lab/con or leave/remain or any of that stuff. Exorcising Trump and his baleful influence brings together all people of sound mind and good character. If you dissent from this assertion you are by definition missing at least one of those things.
    Very drole.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Y2UJUhL74

    Don't know if anyone has seen this but the whole video of the George Floyd death has been released. I believe this isn't the whole video but it's still useful context nonetheless.

    The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,057
    Afternoon all :)

    A thoroughly depressing thread from @david_herdson for which, as always, many thanks.

    Democracy relies on trust - the electorate puts its trust in the people for whom they vote (or its distrust of those for whom they vote against) but there is also the trust that politicians (however cynical we may be about them publicly and privately) are themselves democrats who will respect the wishes of the electorate and allow elections to take place freely and fairly.

    That we are openly talking about the cynical manipulation of the electoral process basically puts Trump in the same camp as Lukashenko. I understand Trump's desire to remain in power - almost all politicians love the power and want to keep it though some (May, Major and Brown to name but three) cross a personal rubicon after which they would rather be anywhere else than 10 Downing Street.

    Regrettably, a free and fair electoral process exists in name only in too many places - allegations of fraud are exaggerated to empower restricting the franchise and we see in too many countries pliant or scared or corrupt officials who, through shameless exercises in intimidation and chicanery, manipulate the electoral results to favour the incumbent.

    If you believe in democracy, you have to respect the will of the people even if you don't like it. That's why I left the Party which I had supported and for which I had campaigned and argued for nearly 40 years. If you believe in democracy you have to allow the free and fair conduct of elections. Now, you might argue even in the freest and fairest of societies, money talks and money can buy votes and there's some truth in that but I don't believe in Britain you would ever have local council officers stuffing ballot boxes with pro-Government votes.

    Unfortunately, we know that happens in some countries which claim to be democracies and whether such abuses of the principles of democracy are flagrant or subtle they have to be condoned by those closest to the incumbent leader, party or administration.

    If you want the definition of true courage, it's to protest the flagrant abuse of your democracy in the knowledge armed police or soldiers will shoot you dead for having the temerity to have that opinion. We should applaud those protesting in Belarus and demand a new election with UN observers - perhaps the US election needs similar. I hope I never have to argue the same for UK elections but the temptation to condone the abuse of democracy in order to either keep the trappings of power for yourself or prevent them falling into the hands of another is powerful and for those with insufficiently robust characters too powerful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064

    The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.
    Shopping centre security guards. With guns.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    I cannot argue with that as it was always a disaster waiting to happen with Williamson in charge

    I do understand it is quite wrong to give all pupils the teacher assessments this year if it is not normal practice, and of course ,while it is the popular choice, it may not be the correct choice as it stores up problems for future years

    I do not know the perfect answer and it seems the Welsh government is having similar problems to England

    However, if HMG had a competent Education Minister from the start it would have helped credibility but Williamson joins quite a number of ministers that are simply not upto the mark and need firing
    I think that`s unfair BigG - and I say that as a parent who has a child going through this right now. What should Ofqual have done?

    They decided on getting as accurate as possible teacher grade expectations for each pupil and to rank them league style. Then they matched that as best they could with the school`s historic performance. The result is grades that are consistent with previous years results so as to maintain their credibility (to give them "equal standing with normal years", as Ofqual says).

    Those that are criticising are saying either 1) that this year`s results should NOT have equal standing, ie they should be higher or 2) the teacher rankings were wrong. If they are alleging 2) then this cannot be proven as subjective judgement is part of it and if Johnny was placed lower in the ranking that he deserved then it follows that Jimmy was higher in the ranking than he deserved.

    The one reason I see for changing to the centre assessed grades is to sacrifice the equal standing with previous years aspect and go with equal standing with Scotland. I see it as a big problem that Scottish pupils have been massively advantaged versus others. Malcy will be at my throat any minute now.
  • Did you have any thoughts on it?
    Ptretty shocking and disgusted by the cops' behavior.
  • Stocky said:

    I think that`s unfair BigG - and I say that as a parent who has a child going through this right now. What should Ofqual have done?

    They decided on getting as accurate as possible teacher grade expectations for each pupil and to rank them league style. Then they matched that as best they could with the school`s historic performance. The result is grades that are consistent with previous years results so as to maintain their credibility (to give them "equal standing with normal years", as Ofqual says).

    Those that are criticising are saying either 1) that this year`s results should NOT have equal standing, ie they should be higher or 2) the teacher rankings were wrong. If they are alleging 2) then this cannot be proven as subjective judgement is part of it and if Johnny was placed lower in the ranking that he deserved then it follows that Jimmy was higher in the ranking than he deserved.

    The one reason I see for changing to the centre assessed grades is to sacrifice the equal standing with previous years aspect and go with equal standing with Scotland. I see it as a big problem that Scottish pupils have been massively advantaged versus others. Malcy will be at my throat any minute now.
    The decision in Scotland was political and it must store up future problems on fairness

    My main point is that Willamson has no street cred and just makes things worse.

    This must have been foreseen and the decision to provide free appeals and have Nick Gibb to lead a task force should have been made at the time and not cobbled together days later by a panicking Williamson
  • Ptretty shocking and disgusted by the cops' behavior.
    The initial approach is hamfisted to put it mildly. If you sitting in a car doing nothing obviously wrong and someone approaches from your blind side and taps sharply on the window you're going to be startled, and that's in this country where it is not common for people to carry guns.

    It isn't obvious why the door has to be opened and the suspect told to show his hands. No obvious offence has been committed. The suspect could just as easily have been asked to lower the window to allow questioning.

    Why was a gun pulled? The suspect was not being violent or showing indications of becomins so. (The suspect was not in fairness helping himself by his hysterical and erratic behaviour, and was contributing to an escalation.)

    Th relevant bigger picture here is of undertrained and overarmed officers being sent out to enforce order in a population where guns are far too widely available and cooperation with the police far too problematic. If you send jerks into an explosive situation, this is what you get.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256
    edited August 2020

    Trump was the perfect candidate for the twatter era. Or turn that around and say the twatter era was perfect for Trump.

    Another aspect was that it was the failure of the GOP establishment which led to Trump.

    There was a decade ago on PB an American GOP supporter called StarsAndStripes.

    He was scornful of the idea that Trump could get nominated by the GOP and that if he did would suffer enormous defeat.
    To my faint surprise we appear to be on the same page. And a confession. For all my opposition to Trump - and I yield to nobody in this - I am not immune to his pull. If he's on, I find it hard to not watch. When he's gone a bit of me will miss him. But that bit of me is not a bit I'm proud of or wish to feed. This is the essence of him imo. He appeals to everything in people that is mean and small and shallow and dumb. We are all to a greater or lesser extent like that and this - forget poll rigging, covid, the economy, all of that superficial stuff - is the real reason he cannot be counted out for 3/11.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,064

    The initial approach is hamfisted to put it mildly. If you sitting in a car doing nothing obviously wrong and someone approaches from your blind side and taps sharply on the window you're going to be startled, and that's in this country where it is not common for people to carry guns.

    It isn't obvious why the door has to be opened and the suspect told to show his hands. No obvious offence has been committed. The suspect could just as easily have been asked to lower the window to allow questioning.

    Why was a gun pulled? The suspect was not being violent or showing indications of becomins so. (The suspect was not in fairness helping himself by his hysterical and erratic behaviour, and was contributing to an escalation.)

    Th relevant bigger picture here is of undertrained and overarmed officers being sent out to enforce order in a population where guns are far too widely available and cooperation with the police far too problematic. If you send jerks into an explosive situation, this is what you get.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/12/police-gun-shooting-training-ferguson/383681/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    kamski said:

    And this is only about electricity generation. People are still *buying* diesel and petrol vehicles, for example, by the millions.
    Leaving it to the industrialists is one of the most stupid ideas I've seen on here. Leaving it to the industrialists has got us to the terrible situation we are in today, 30 years after the science of global warming was clear and almost no progress made since. Even US emissions are higher than in 1990, the country that should be leading the way.

    We basically need to decarbonise extremely rapidly to have a reasonable chance of avoiding catastrophe. This is just not going to happen quickly enough without strong political action.
    The need for large government economic stimuli might just give the required impetus for such action.
    Which is massively more likely under Biden than Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,256

    Very drole.
    But I'm NOT an authoritarian. The only poster I have ever cancelled on here is Philip - and that's only twice, and only for 48 hours each time, and only after the severest provocation when he succumbed to extreme levels of Brownophobia and Borisphilia.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,568
    Some Belarusian paratroops siding with the protestors:

    https://twitter.com/CarmenOfficial_/status/1294648144601415682?s=09
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    Ydoethur - what constitutes a valid mock.

    Have you seen this?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/appeals-based-on-mock-exams
  • PA Media: "Meghan ‘devastated’ to return and see state of US". Reading this report, there can no longer be any doubt about her intended direction of travel. How could she (or Harry) ever imagine that such outspoken political statements could ever have remotely enabled them to continue as any part of the Royal family? A 100% split from The Firm following their 12 month trial period now appears the only realistic option.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    And many more pupils take GCSEs than A-levels.
    More importantly there is a social/class issue. Not every 18 year old takes A Levels.
    Almost every 16 year old takes GCSEs.
    Also. What happens regarding needing a pass at English and Maths or resit during Sixth Form?
    Can see that heightening grievances, with 2 pupils from the same class, both predicted a pass, one down graded and having to spend year 12 repeating English and Maths GCSE, the other free to concentrate fully on A Levels.
    With neither of them having had the chance to prove or disprove the legitimacy of their lot.
  • https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/12/police-gun-shooting-training-ferguson/383681/
    Thanks, that does highlight some of the issues, but they run very deep and wide.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.

    Have you read Malcolm Gladwell, Talking to Strangers?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    How do you 'work' as an astrologer? Who pays someone for that - the Met Office?
    I am not personally into astrology - but nor am I totally dismissive. This guy is no fool and draws up detailed astrological charts for customers based on their time and place of birth. He seems to make a good living from it.
  • The overwhelming impression is of stunning incompetence.
    Many US police forces have an IQ (or equivalent) test as part of the application. If you get too high a score you are rejected.

    I wish this were a joke, but it is not.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CoK4MEI43vI
  • Scott_xP said:

    Have you read Malcolm Gladwell, Talking to Strangers?
    No, is it good?

    Nearest I've ever come to having to deal with this kind of situation is fifteen years as a soccer referee. Mind you, I remember a fellow ref pointing out to me that one person in twenty is a psychopath so on a field of 22 players....

    Then again very few footballers carry guns.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    No, is it good?

    Nearest I've ever come to having to deal with this kind of situation is fifteen years as a soccer referee. Mind you, I remember a fellow ref pointing out to me that one person in twenty is a psychopath so on a field of 22 players....

    Then again very few footballers carry guns.

    Yes.

    It's about all kinds of interactions between people, but it starts and ends with a cop pulling a woman over on a routine stop, and her committing suicide the next day

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/business/malcolm-gladwell-talking-to-strangers.html
  • Utter madness and eco vandalism from the EU

    https://twitter.com/GaiaFawkes/status/1294580050281533440?s=19
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,219

    "Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Reagan in Berlin, 1987.
    Your point being?
  • Many US police forces have an IQ (or equivalent) test as part of the application. If you get too high a score you are rejected.

    I wish this were a joke, but it is not.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CoK4MEI43vI
    Lol! Illuminating. I remember being told that in France you were unlikely to be allowed into the police if you were too smart. Didn't know it applied in the US too.

    As a student working on a gas station in San Francisco many years ago I remember becoming acquainted with a number of the local cops. They were far from dumb, but they did tend to regard themselves as 'hired guns'.

    That same summer I drove across the States and was stopped one night by a couple of cops in a small town in Nebraska. I've met more intelligent cows.

    More recently I've been pulled over in NY State a couple of times. The word arrogance springs to mind rather than stupidity. Guess i t depends where you are.
  • Stocky said:

    Ydoethur - what constitutes a valid mock.

    Have you seen this?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/appeals-based-on-mock-exams

    The last criterion was the one I was worried about as we have not retained the scripts. Just wanting the marks and not the papers makes it a lot more likely that schools will be able to do this.

    The one part that may be a problem is the way the marks are translated into grades: I would think many schools to make an adjustment to allow for the expected improvement between the mock and the real thing.

    One thing I’m hoping this will do is make it much easier to convince future Y11 students to take their mocks seriously...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited August 2020

    The last criterion was the one I was worried about as we have not retained the scripts. Just wanting the marks and not the papers makes it a lot more likely that schools will be able to do this.

    The one part that may be a problem is the way the marks are translated into grades: I would think many schools to make an adjustment to allow for the expected improvement between the mock and the real thing.

    One thing I’m hoping this will do is make it much easier to convince future Y11 students to take their mocks seriously...
    My daughter`s schools just gave her grades - not marks. We have a Mock Exam certificate, issued back in January. I didn`t know about the "marks translated into grades" thing that you mention. That is concerning - as on second reading it does say marks not grades.

    Edit: but then again - higher up it says "mock grade".
  • Scott_xP said:

    Yes.

    It's about all kinds of interactions between people, but it starts and ends with a cop pulling a woman over on a routine stop, and her committing suicide the next day

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/business/malcolm-gladwell-talking-to-strangers.html
    Is it UK or US-based? I have to say in my engagements with the police in this country they have been almost invariably polite and supportive.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Life tip - don't go to Sicily in the middle of a heatwave. It's 34 degrees today and that's the coolest it has been so far.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    Is it UK or US-based? I have to say in my engagements with the police in this country they have been almost invariably polite and supportive.

    US
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    MaxPB said:

    Life tip - don't go to Sicily in the middle of a heatwave. It's 34 degrees today and that's the coolest it has been so far.

    You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,820

    Utter madness and eco vandalism from the EU

    https://twitter.com/GaiaFawkes/status/1294580050281533440?s=19

    Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Stocky said:

    You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.
    Don't it's absolutely fucking terrible. Life sappingly hot. We drove to the beach near Siracusa today, it's the only thing to do to stay cool other than staying in the hotel room where there is AC.
  • Lol! Illuminating. I remember being told that in France you were unlikely to be allowed into the police if you were too smart. Didn't know it applied in the US too.

    As a student working on a gas station in San Francisco many years ago I remember becoming acquainted with a number of the local cops. They were far from dumb, but they did tend to regard themselves as 'hired guns'.

    That same summer I drove across the States and was stopped one night by a couple of cops in a small town in Nebraska. I've met more intelligent cows.

    More recently I've been pulled over in NY State a couple of times. The word arrogance springs to mind rather than stupidity. Guess i t depends where you are.
    I think another problem is the huge number of different police forces. In the UK we have 48; in the US (with admittedly five times the population) they have just under 18 thousand. As there are about 800,000 police officers, this means the mean police force has fewer than 50 officers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718

    The initial approach is hamfisted to put it mildly. If you sitting in a car doing nothing obviously wrong and someone approaches from your blind side and taps sharply on the window you're going to be startled, and that's in this country where it is not common for people to carry guns.

    It isn't obvious why the door has to be opened and the suspect told to show his hands. No obvious offence has been committed. The suspect could just as easily have been asked to lower the window to allow questioning.

    Why was a gun pulled? The suspect was not being violent or showing indications of becomins so. (The suspect was not in fairness helping himself by his hysterical and erratic behaviour, and was contributing to an escalation.)

    Th relevant bigger picture here is of undertrained and overarmed officers being sent out to enforce order in a population where guns are far too widely available and cooperation with the police far too problematic. If you send jerks into an explosive situation, this is what you get.
    You have to say though , given he had been through it all before , knew cops are scared and shoot first , why did he not just stick his hands on the steering wheel and then all of the struggling and not getting in the cop car , does not excuse the cops over the top behaviour but he would be alive today if he had just got in the police car.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    Will the bombshell video reveal Priti to have a droplet of the milk of human kindness? Political reputation destroyed in an instant.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1294607887956934656?s=20

    I'm all of a sudden warming to Priti.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    How do you 'work' as an astrologer? Who pays someone for that - the Met Office?
    My uncle did it for many years - lots of clients paid him for his services - though he's now not well enough to pursue it. FWIW he's perfectly sincere - a very religious man, he believes that the position of the stars indicate the wishes of the Almighty.
  • I think another problem is the huge number of different police forces. In the UK we have 48; in the US (with admittedly five times the population) they have just under 18 thousand. As there are about 800,000 police officers, this means the mean police force has fewer than 50 officers.
    I did say elsewhere that he didn't help himself and contributed to the escalation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    Stocky said:

    You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.
    And I envy you. 4th consecutive day of fog. With this virus about its like living in a Stephen King novel.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    Stocky said:

    You lucky thing - I envy you. Chucking it down here.
    blue sky and sunshine in Ayrshire, hard to keep the beer cold when opened.
  • I think another problem is the huge number of different police forces. In the UK we have 48; in the US (with admittedly five times the population) they have just under 18 thousand. As there are about 800,000 police officers, this means the mean police force has fewer than 50 officers.
    Didn't know that. Again it helps to understand how dreadful incidents like the Floyd killing happen.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    edited August 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.
    Always try to pin it on the EU, they will be stuffed in UK next year when they cannot blame everything on the EU. They will try to blame Labour instead.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    malcolmg said:

    blue sky and sunshine in Ayrshire, hard to keep the beer cold when opened.
    I preferred you when you were being mean
  • Stocky said:

    My daughter`s schools just gave her grades - not marks. We have a Mock Exam certificate, issued back in January. I didn`t know about the "marks translated into grades" thing that you mention. That is concerning - as on second reading it does say marks not grades.

    Edit: but then again - higher up it says "mock grade".
    The school should have a record of what her mark actually was even if they didn’t tell her.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,219
    edited August 2020



    Trump was the perfect candidate for the twatter era. Or turn that around and say the twatter era was perfect for Trump.

    Another aspect was that it was the failure of the GOP establishment which led to Trump.

    There was a decade ago on PB an American GOP supporter called StarsAndStripes.

    He was scornful of the idea that Trump could get nominated by the GOP and that if he did would suffer enormous defeat.

    Yes, but there are other factors that make up Trump. He is best seen as the logical culmination of several trends that go back decades in western democracies, and America in particular:

    - the devaluation of experience at the top of government, i.e. denying that you benefit from expertise
    - identity politics and its associated fostering of grievance
    - the dumbing down of debate through the shortening of attention spans through first TV, then social media
    - the toleration of rampant back-scratching and corruption
    - the relentless focus on personalities and not issues.

    If you take those five trends together, you have President Trump.

    And, for the record, we're on the same road on many of those trends over here. Hence that moron Corbyn.
This discussion has been closed.