It appears state media (or whats left of it) are saying that Russia has agreed to help President Big Hat on request. That's a very broad statement. Russia will have no problem sending advisors, though whether its to help the President himself or a broader regime is an open question. The question is what else would they send on request? Unbadged forces or something a little more conventional?
There are notable numbers of Russian ground troops from Western Military district turning up in two locations c30km east and c10km North of the Russia/Belarus border that were not previously there. Both locations are on main transit routes.
This is not new, the repositioning has been happening for days and you'd have to assume some contingency work by Moscow for many reasons, not just rolling the tanks over.
There is an adage that sometimes the size and shape of a military force on a border gets beyond spillover protection or sabre rattling and can only mean one thing; the intention is to use it. Anything from 24-96 hours and we might just get clarity on whether the scale of deployment holds a message.
It's interesting that the Russian media have started presenting the protests very sympathetically and have been detailing some of the abuses of Lukashenko. It's nothing like the way Maidan was covered.
That is an indication of Russian government views on Big Hat himself but they have no interest whatsoever in seeing something akin to a regular democratic regime take power therefore leaving any number of possibilities about the future direction of the country.
They may view him as a dead duck and will long game this. I have noted in previous posts that many many Belarussian's aren't exactly hostile to Russia and aren't all go to be part of the Western European sphere, as represented by the EU, either. What they are, and increasingly so, is forging their own national identity. Russia will need to make a judgement on whether AGL is just a side show, it doesn't matter if he goes and they can attempt to manage their own interests via other means no matter who is in power.
Its either that or a game of chicken. How desperate is Big Hat? Enough to acquiesce to some kind of greater federation or union? Russia has been agitating and pushing that line for ages but the stall has been on the Belarus side.
The bigger picture is the future of Putin within Russia. This could have more in common with 1989 than 2014.
Putin looks, sadly, reasonably secure. Other than sustained popular protest on a mass scale (which there are doubts the critical mass is there right now) , palace coup or, preferably, assassination he has got a decent foundation.
But he's getting short of roubles isn't he Yokes? And Covid isn't sparing Russia, whatever phony numbers he puts out. What then if his puppet in the White House goes in November - would Vlad still be as secure then?
Don't think Trumps future is going to make a difference Peter. I cant see a Biden White House going for a full strangulation of Russia's economy, which they could certainly have a good go at It is true that Russia's economy is not in great shape and I'd consider the place a basket case of a country that is in historical decline. Unless I am missing something he still carries a solid base of support, even if not a majority. It would represent a very sudden drain. Plus his entire approach is one of risk management, he is at heart a functionary, and not inclined to go off the rails.
The irony of all this is that the man has enriched himself to an enormous degree (the figure is reportedly north of $10 billion) but when his day comes what is he going to do with it?
$10 billion! As much as that? Well he could maybe buy Chelsea FC and move into Knightbridge.
Yes, I take your points and appreciate your comments as ever.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
Positivity rates for Pillar 2 have gone from 0.4 to 0.6 in the last couple of weeks.
Doesn't that link to the argument about better targeting?
Anyway, part of the big problem is that the figures from March and April are so differently compiled as to be uncomparable. We have almost no idea how the 1000 odd positive tests a day we are getting now compares to the positive tests we were getting at the end of March. We were testing 10s of thousands (tops) back then, almost all symptomatic, and mostly in hospitals.
We are now testing hundreds of thousands, many asymptomatic and largely in communities. It could well be that the numbers we are getting now are more indicative of the situation in early March or earlier. But this time the Care homes are better protected...
The problem is that all of that is a guess.. Best information is (yet again) ONS -
I hate it when posters disappear, @barnesian hasn`t posted for over two weeks.
Didn't he say he was quarantining in Ireland? Possibly in the middle of nowhere with no access to internet. Wasn't he still sorting out probate issues relating to his wife's death?
Oh, thanks - I didn`t know that. I`ll look back at his last posts.
Yes he was working on his wife’s cottage for two weeks
I`m not sure it has. In today`s announcement Ofqual mentions "non-exam assessment" - I didn`t read this as meaning the same as teacher assessed grades/ centre assessment grades.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
Sunbathers in March and April? The ski resorts definitely, and largely because of the activities people get up to there in the evenings.
Where are the figures, not a big ask is it ?conditions are very different to March and if people obey the rules in the country they are visiting the chances of being infected are low.
If the rules in the countries in question were all working that well then France, for example, would not be recording three times the number of positive tests to the UK, and have five times as many people in hospital and in intensive care beds with Covid.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.
Always try to pin it on the EU, they will be stuffed in UK next year when they cannot blame everything on the EU. They will try to blame Labour instead.
It is the Irish blaming the EU
Really? It reads to me as if an organization in Ireland failed to follow widely known EU-wide administrative procedures and got taken to the ECJ. In no way did the EU specifically mandate the destruction of the saplings.
Surely the problem is that the EU has some minutia of regulation about planting trees. Why is it getting involved in this at all? Planting more trees and reforestation is a hugely important goal, it's one of the tools we have against climate change so why are he EU making it more difficult with regulations?
Well, to make sure they don't make tyhe environmentqal situation even worse?
Off now to do my bit for the environment (saorting out charity shop stuff from the clutter). Have a nice weekend everyone.
Again, why get involved at all? If a country is happy to pursue reforestation or growing a new tree nursery then that in itself is worthwhile, why is he EU making this process unnecessarily complicated with regulations. The national government will know what's best for it's country, it isn't going to approve some kind of invasive species or something that will cause devastation to other forests in the country. It's just another example of EU regulatory overreach and now 400,000 trees are not going to exist that would otherwise have done.
A quick Google finds our own governments environmental assessment guidance. It all sounds pretty reasonable to me, and seems to be in line with EU regulations. Which bit of it do you think is surplus to requirements? The need to understand the human impacts? The fire risks? The preservation of cultural sites and protected species?
But why does the EU have to get involved? How does it help make sure that trade between the different members is on a level playing field? This sort of thing, regulatory overreach, is one of the reasons I seriously considered voting leave.
The European Court ruled that an adequate environmental impact assessment was needed. Seems quite reasonable to me. It is not EU regs per se, just a requirement to assess impacts.
For example plantings near powerlines, railway lines, along some roads, on neolithic sites, on SSI's etc might be bad places to plant.
I not arguing that an environmental impact assessment isn’t a good idea; my argument is that this is something that the Irish state should be perfectly capable of working out for itself. If the Irish Supreme Court had made this decision it would be sad that so many trees were due to be pulped, but unremarkable otherwise. It is the fact that the European Court got involved because this was a European standard rather than an Irish one that I have a problem with.
Is there a compelling reason why this is a European competence rather than a national one? If there is, then I will have to admit that you are right.
As the head of the UK arm of an environmental/animal welfare charity, I think there's a case for the EU pursuing a levelling up approach. In many areas like this, there is actually a penalty for the fastest mover - if a country decides that EIAs are rubbish and it's fine to do whatever makes a profit, they will draw business away from countries that have high standards, and this in turn inhibits progress (if one accepts that a better environment is progress).
To take a different example, pretty much everyone agrees that it's unpleasant that sows should be kept for a month after giving birth in a tight crate where she can't even turn round, as is common practice, but systems that allow movement but protect piglets from the sow rolling over on them are more expensive, and the industry argues in *each* country that they shouldn't end the bad practice in *that* country because other countries will undercut them by selling pork more cheaply. Having an EU-wide phase-out avoids that problem.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
Sunbathers in March and April? The ski resorts definitely, and largely because of the activities people get up to there in the evenings.
Where are the figures, not a big ask is it ?conditions are very different to March and if people obey the rules in the country they are visiting the chances of being infected are low.
If the rules in the countries in question were all working that well then France, for example, would not be recording three times the number of positive tests to the UK, and have five times as many people in hospital and in intensive care beds with Covid.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
I was genuinely surprised about how many had already gone on holiday to France. 400,000? What were they thinking?!
Where I live the infection rate is the same as the UK there are people with second homes., families etc who come out here not to down beer in discos till four in the morning, we have no discos, we have tightly controlled social distancing and have additional restrictions coming in on Tuesday. I’m not saying they shouldn’t impose quarantine but it would be good to see the factual basis for that decision, it can’t be that difficult unless they are not collecting the data which would be grossly negligent if they weren’t.
Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.
Always try to pin it on the EU, they will be stuffed in UK next year when they cannot blame everything on the EU. They will try to blame Labour instead.
It is the Irish blaming the EU
Really? It reads to me as if an organization in Ireland failed to follow widely known EU-wide administrative procedures and got taken to the ECJ. In no way did the EU specifically mandate the destruction of the saplings.
Surely the problem is that the EU has some minutia of regulation about planting trees. Why is it getting involved in this at all? Planting more trees and reforestation is a hugely important goal, it's one of the tools we have against climate change so why are he EU making it more difficult with regulations?
As Carnyx said it is the Irish growers etc that have grown far too many and the EU don't need them , usual made up bollox of blaming the EU when it is nothing to do with them
You can never grow too many trees
Is it the case that Scotland used to be heavily forested? And thus are the bare hills of (say) Glen Coe a human thing? (Anything to stop them building a McDonalds's)
Edit: sorry, Good evening all.
Yes and no. Although it depends how far you go back.
A lot of what is now treeless bog (such as Rannoch Moor) has the remains of trees embedded in the peat. I understand that this loss of cover was actually caused by climate change about 4000 years ago - the UK climate became too wet in some upland areas for trees to survive and nobody is quite sure why.
The western oak forests of the lower slopes (Sessile oak rather than English oak) were cut down by man for charcoal. And the pine forests of both west and east for wood.
It is overgrazing that keeps the hills bare today, though.
I would recommend a visit to Glen Feshie, which shows what can be achieved if you a) Have a lot of money b) Terminate as many deer as you can find with extreme prejudice
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
Sunbathers in March and April? The ski resorts definitely, and largely because of the activities people get up to there in the evenings.
Where are the figures, not a big ask is it ?conditions are very different to March and if people obey the rules in the country they are visiting the chances of being infected are low.
If the rules in the countries in question were all working that well then France, for example, would not be recording three times the number of positive tests to the UK, and have five times as many people in hospital and in intensive care beds with Covid.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
I don't think they've actually stopped anyone travelling? Or at least i hope not!
I'm intending to go to France. During which time i will spend most of the time in glorious isolation. And then come back and do the same!
The exams stuff hasn't made a difference, I am not at all surprised. Let's be honest, the people it impacts don't vote Tory anyway.
I think it is too early to say and to be honest there is lots going on including high public approval for the quarantine decisions
It's fairly mixed on Coronavirus more generally, indeed more time will tell.
I think the economic response also has an impact. If we recover a lot more slowly than other countries perhaps, or Brexit ends up being a complete mess.
Hope for the sake of us all, the Tories do a smashing job.
Big problem for Labour is how low that Lib Dem vote is.
Relying on the Libs to chew away at soft Tory floating voters worked a treat in the past, but Labour may be unable to avoid the hard graft of trying to win them over directly itself this time around.
The exams stuff hasn't made a difference, I am not at all surprised. Let's be honest, the people it impacts don't vote Tory anyway.
It also impacts parents. Red wall and all.
C2DE voted Tory:Lab 48:33 at the last election.
Yes the 18-24 age group was probably about the same the other way, but a lot of shouting has come from parents who are also affected.
(Whether there is actually overall substance to the claims may become more significant than it is in the current heat of the moment. If the actually University outcome is OK for a large majority will draw any sting to an extent.)
The exams stuff hasn't made a difference, I am not at all surprised. Let's be honest, the people it impacts don't vote Tory anyway.
I think it is too early to say and to be honest there is lots going on including high public approval for the quarantine decisions
It's fairly mixed on Coronavirus more generally, indeed more time will tell.
I think the economic response also has an impact. If we recover a lot more slowly than other countries perhaps, or Brexit ends up being a complete mess.
Hope for the sake of us all, the Tories do a smashing job.
A huge proportion of the new Tory core vote (aka "Red Wall") both won't have been going on foreign holidays (so therefore all quarantine decisions are a positive) and won't have children going to university (so are largely indifferent). The media discussions on university regularly take absolutely zero acknowledgement of the fact that less that 50% of school leavers go to University.
The exams stuff hasn't made a difference, I am not at all surprised. Let's be honest, the people it impacts don't vote Tory anyway.
I think it is too early to say and to be honest there is lots going on including high public approval for the quarantine decisions
It's fairly mixed on Coronavirus more generally, indeed more time will tell.
I think the economic response also has an impact. If we recover a lot more slowly than other countries perhaps, or Brexit ends up being a complete mess.
Hope for the sake of us all, the Tories do a smashing job.
Indeed and time will tell
Llandudno is as busy as any summer day at present as is much of North Wales
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
Sunbathers in March and April? The ski resorts definitely, and largely because of the activities people get up to there in the evenings.
Where are the figures, not a big ask is it ?conditions are very different to March and if people obey the rules in the country they are visiting the chances of being infected are low.
If the rules in the countries in question were all working that well then France, for example, would not be recording three times the number of positive tests to the UK, and have five times as many people in hospital and in intensive care beds with Covid.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
I don't think they've actually stopped anyone travelling? Or at least i hope not!
I'm intending to go to France. During which time i will spend most of the time in glorious isolation. And then come back and do the same!
To all intents and purposes it has stopped most people from travelling - an accumulation of the cancellation of package holidays to affected areas, difficulties with obtaining valid travel insurance, and the burden of quarantine (a severe nuisance for those who can work from home; an insurmountable obstacle for most of those who can't.)
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
Sunbathers in March and April? The ski resorts definitely, and largely because of the activities people get up to there in the evenings.
Where are the figures, not a big ask is it ?conditions are very different to March and if people obey the rules in the country they are visiting the chances of being infected are low.
If the rules in the countries in question were all working that well then France, for example, would not be recording three times the number of positive tests to the UK, and have five times as many people in hospital and in intensive care beds with Covid.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
I don't think they've actually stopped anyone travelling? Or at least i hope not!
I'm intending to go to France. During which time i will spend most of the time in glorious isolation. And then come back and do the same!
To all intents and purposes it has stopped most people from travelling - an accumulation of the cancellation of package holidays to affected areas, difficulties with obtaining valid travel insurance, and the burden of quarantine (a severe nuisance for those who can work from home; an insurmountable obstacle for most of those who can't.)
Any views on Matched Betting? I have never been into gambling per se beyond the stock market, but was introduced to this a month or so ago. Have made a small profit of a few hundred pounds.
Are there still big money matched betting oppertunities?
I thought the big offers died off a decade ago.
My advice is always, always read the small print on the bookies offers and DO NOT GET greedy. Don't bet on a 7th division Latvian handball match as your first bet on the site.
Stick to big mainstream matches where you will not stick out.
Yes, the last time I went down that road I had to spend an entire week mindlessly playing normal Blackjack strategy just to realise some sort of $40 bonus.
Of course I don't agree with Guido's ideological slant either but they are not helped by their site.
The Times is pretty good on the UI front, even the Telegraph seems fine. Their annoying use of paywalls is a constant frustration but I can see they need to make money.
It's a blog, not a newspaper. I think it's supposed to be simple.
Simple doesn't mean crap. They could at least follow basic UX guidance.
There are plenty of decent blogging platforms or blogs that are well designed.
This is an insult to anyone that runs a blog quite frankly.
Isn't it the most popular blog in the UK? so I think they are doing just fine.
*political blog!
I’m surprised most guido bloggers are capable of logging on.
Why in God's name would you want to go onto the comments section there? Greater hive of scum and villainy comes to mind.
Not the EU but administrative incompetence within Ireland.
Always try to pin it on the EU, they will be stuffed in UK next year when they cannot blame everything on the EU. They will try to blame Labour instead.
It is the Irish blaming the EU
Really? It reads to me as if an organization in Ireland failed to follow widely known EU-wide administrative procedures and got taken to the ECJ. In no way did the EU specifically mandate the destruction of the saplings.
Surely the problem is that the EU has some minutia of regulation about planting trees. Why is it getting involved in this at all? Planting more trees and reforestation is a hugely important goal, it's one of the tools we have against climate change so why are he EU making it more difficult with regulations?
Well, to make sure they don't make tyhe environmentqal situation even worse?
Off now to do my bit for the environment (saorting out charity shop stuff from the clutter). Have a nice weekend everyone.
Again, why get involved at all? If a country is happy to pursue reforestation or growing a new tree nursery then that in itself is worthwhile, why is he EU making this process unnecessarily complicated with regulations. The national government will know what's best for it's country, it isn't going to approve some kind of invasive species or something that will cause devastation to other forests in the country. It's just another example of EU regulatory overreach and now 400,000 trees are not going to exist that would otherwise have done.
A quick Google finds our own governments environmental assessment guidance. It all sounds pretty reasonable to me, and seems to be in line with EU regulations. Which bit of it do you think is surplus to requirements? The need to understand the human impacts? The fire risks? The preservation of cultural sites and protected species?
But why does the EU have to get involved? How does it help make sure that trade between the different members is on a level playing field? This sort of thing, regulatory overreach, is one of the reasons I seriously considered voting leave.
The European Court ruled that an adequate environmental impact assessment was needed. Seems quite reasonable to me. It is not EU regs per se, just a requirement to assess impacts.
For example plantings near powerlines, railway lines, along some roads, on neolithic sites, on SSI's etc might be bad places to plant.
I not arguing that an environmental impact assessment isn’t a good idea; my argument is that this is something that the Irish state should be perfectly capable of working out for itself. If the Irish Supreme Court had made this decision it would be sad that so many trees were due to be pulped, but unremarkable otherwise. It is the fact that the European Court got involved because this was a European standard rather than an Irish one that I have a problem with.
Is there a compelling reason why this is a European competence rather than a national one? If there is, then I will have to admit that you are right.
As the head of the UK arm of an environmental/animal welfare charity, I think there's a case for the EU pursuing a levelling up approach. In many areas like this, there is actually a penalty for the fastest mover - if a country decides that EIAs are rubbish and it's fine to do whatever makes a profit, they will draw business away from countries that have high standards, and this in turn inhibits progress (if one accepts that a better environment is progress).
To take a different example, pretty much everyone agrees that it's unpleasant that sows should be kept for a month after giving birth in a tight crate where she can't even turn round, as is common practice, but systems that allow movement but protect piglets from the sow rolling over on them are more expensive, and the industry argues in *each* country that they shouldn't end the bad practice in *that* country because other countries will undercut them by selling pork more cheaply. Having an EU-wide phase-out avoids that problem.
The 'level playing field' in other words?
As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?
I was genuinely surprised about how many had already gone on holiday to France. 400,000? What were they thinking?!
They weren't.
There are quite a large numbers of Brits owning second homes in France - 200k. Just part of those would give you your 400k, and there will be campers and self-caterers etc.
All those would be relatively isolated and feel safe.
I`m not sure it has. In today`s announcement Ofqual mentions "non-exam assessment" - I didn`t read this as meaning the same as teacher assessed grades/ centre assessment grades.
Especially as you have that excellent list from your daughter’s school to refer to.
I didn`t read it as being the same thing. It says that if CAG is lower than the mock the pupil can`t have the mock. It also says that non-exam assessment can be used is there was no official mock, and gives details of what it considers a non-exam assessments. So confusing. This may be the key passage:
" Either past assessment(s) produced by the relevant exam board OR assessments developed by teachers to align to exam past assessments e.g. in the curriculum sampled and style of questions.
Marked non examination assessment can be used instead or in addition to mock examination results."
The CAG at my daughter`s school included consideration of things such as cognitive ability test and Year 10 (i.e. end of last year) exams - I don`t think these can be used as part of a mock-substitute.
Of course I don't agree with Guido's ideological slant either but they are not helped by their site.
The Times is pretty good on the UI front, even the Telegraph seems fine. Their annoying use of paywalls is a constant frustration but I can see they need to make money.
It's a blog, not a newspaper. I think it's supposed to be simple.
Simple doesn't mean crap. They could at least follow basic UX guidance.
There are plenty of decent blogging platforms or blogs that are well designed.
This is an insult to anyone that runs a blog quite frankly.
Isn't it the most popular blog in the UK? so I think they are doing just fine.
*political blog!
Look we're clearly looking at this from different points of view.
I am simply saying their site violates a whole load of UX guidelines and that annoys me because it's something I spend a lot of my time working with in my job.
It doesn't mean they are, or are not popular, I was simply raising it as I thought it was something interesting to discuss, perhaps I was wrong.
There are plenty of terribly designed websites that are popular, not disputing that. Doesn't mean they aren't terribly designed.
4Chan, is disgusting. The Guardian isn't very good either, Forbes is horrible, Buzzfeed rubbish. I could go on.
I don't particularly like the new Reddit design either but that's more because it's incredibly slow and inefficient.
I thought Guido was inspired by Popbitch? Which doesn't exactly use modern design...
The exams stuff hasn't made a difference, I am not at all surprised. Let's be honest, the people it impacts don't vote Tory anyway.
It also impacts parents. Red wall and all.
C2DE voted Tory:Lab 48:33 at the last election.
Yes the 18-24 age group was probably about the same the other way, but a lot of shouting has come from parents who are also affected.
(Whether there is actually overall substance to the claims may become more significant than it is in the current heat of the moment. If the actually University outcome is OK for a large majority will draw any sting to an extent.)
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
I hate it when posters disappear, @barnesian hasn`t posted for over two weeks.
Didn't he say he was quarantining in Ireland? Possibly in the middle of nowhere with no access to internet. Wasn't he still sorting out probate issues relating to his wife's death?
Oh, thanks - I didn`t know that. I`ll look back at his last posts.
Yes he was working on his wife’s cottage for two weeks
I hate it when posters disappear, @barnesian hasn`t posted for over two weeks.
Didn't he say he was quarantining in Ireland? Possibly in the middle of nowhere with no access to internet. Wasn't he still sorting out probate issues relating to his wife's death?
Oh, thanks - I didn`t know that. I`ll look back at his last posts.
Yes he was working on his wife’s cottage for two weeks
That's right. It's nice to be missed 🙂
Yeh - he`s back. You`ve been missed.
Got your skiing booked for next year yet, or are you holding off like me?
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
When you were a Notts MP, did anyone try and get anywhere with asbestos in CLASP schools?
I see that it is coming to the end of its design life, and I wonder if now is a good time to raise it with my MP given that investment is being targeted here and Notts has about 100 such schools and we currently have lots of govt party MPs.
Any comments welcome.
Afaics the asbestos APPG etc was mainly driven by Northern Lab MPs eg County Durham.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
All true. Still doesn't mean, however, that applying the precautionary principle isn't the path of least resistance for the Government, and arguably the logical way to act from a political point of view. Like I said, if holidaymakers bring the disease back then the Government will be blamed for not keeping them from travelling, and most of the electorate that wasn't taking, or planning on taking, foreign holidays will approve.
I hate it when posters disappear, @barnesian hasn`t posted for over two weeks.
Didn't he say he was quarantining in Ireland? Possibly in the middle of nowhere with no access to internet. Wasn't he still sorting out probate issues relating to his wife's death?
Oh, thanks - I didn`t know that. I`ll look back at his last posts.
Yes he was working on his wife’s cottage for two weeks
That's right. It's nice to be missed 🙂
Yeh - he`s back. You`ve been missed.
Got your skiing booked for next year yet, or are you holding off like me?
I've got one week booked in March in the Dolomites with friends and one week booked in April in France with the grandchildren. I live in hope.
I've no broadband here in Ireland and very little data left hot spotting my mobile.
I was genuinely surprised about how many had already gone on holiday to France. 400,000? What were they thinking?!
They weren't.
There are quite a large numbers of Brits owning second homes in France - 200k. Just part of those would give you your 400k, and there will be campers and self-caterers etc.
All those would be relatively isolated and feel safe.
Also not much in the way of sunk costs should plans be forced to change.
I hate it when posters disappear, @barnesian hasn`t posted for over two weeks.
Didn't he say he was quarantining in Ireland? Possibly in the middle of nowhere with no access to internet. Wasn't he still sorting out probate issues relating to his wife's death?
Oh, thanks - I didn`t know that. I`ll look back at his last posts.
Yes he was working on his wife’s cottage for two weeks
That's right. It's nice to be missed 🙂
Yeh - he`s back. You`ve been missed.
Got your skiing booked for next year yet, or are you holding off like me?
I've got one week booked in March in the Dolomites with friends and one week booked in April in France with the grandchildren. I live in hope.
I've no broadband here in Ireland and very little data left hot spotting my mobile.
I can`t wait that long Barnesian. I`m targeting December, but dare not book it yet.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
That much is obvious. I merely question why we should assume that cases are about to skyrocket.
They have been mercurial all season. Getting a few chances now, but Lyon playing pretty tight.
I am sure you will know this but if United win the Europa Cup does Leicester qualify for the Champions league
No, as I understand it there is no extra CL spot if Man U win.
Personally I am quite happy with EL. I don't think we are good enough for the CL. We made the last 16 3 Yr ago, but were seeded well, and wouldn't be this time. I think we can go a long way with the EL though, it is more our standard.
I don't think we will spend a fortune this transfer season, just the money that we get for Chilwell, and any of the squad players we can offload. I wouldn't expect any other significant departures.
Our owners are very supportive, but their business is Duty Free shops and I cannot see that being very lucrative at the moment.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
That much is obvious. I merely question why we should assume that cases are about to skyrocket.
(1) Because we've reduced social distancing measures and (2) Lots of people will be returning from places which have had big CV19 second waves
Don't forget that people are at their most infectious in the week before they show symptoms.
Let me turn the question around: given everywhere else that has lots of travel with infected parts of the world and have reduced social distancing measures, why shouldn't we have a second wave?
They have been mercurial all season. Getting a few chances now, but Lyon playing pretty tight.
I am sure you will know this but if United win the Europa Cup does Leicester qualify for the Champions league
I don't think so. England can get a fifth CL spot by a club winning either the Europa League or Champions League (or both) but only if that team was not one of the four that would already qualify based upon league position.
I`m not sure it has. In today`s announcement Ofqual mentions "non-exam assessment" - I didn`t read this as meaning the same as teacher assessed grades/ centre assessment grades.
Especially as you have that excellent list from your daughter’s school to refer to.
I didn`t read it as being the same thing. It says that if CAG is lower than the mock the pupil can`t have the mock. It also says that non-exam assessment can be used is there was no official mock, and gives details of what it considers a non-exam assessments. So confusing. This may be the key passage:
" Either past assessment(s) produced by the relevant exam board OR assessments developed by teachers to align to exam past assessments e.g. in the curriculum sampled and style of questions.
Marked non examination assessment can be used instead or in addition to mock examination results."
The CAG at my daughter`s school included consideration of things such as cognitive ability test and Year 10 (i.e. end of last year) exams - I don`t think these can be used as part of a mock-substitute.
Basically i think it is a not unreasonable assumption that Ministers and (and possibly senior DfE civil servants) cooked up the mock exam "policy" at very short notice and with little knowledge of what "mock exams" actually consisted. Probably they they hadn't envisaged it being part of a complicated appeals process, just another set of grades to feed into the "triple lock equation". Something that could be worked out in seconds. Since then everything has been trying to come up with some sort of framework to actually implement the ignorant policy.
They have been mercurial all season. Getting a few chances now, but Lyon playing pretty tight.
I am sure you will know this but if United win the Europa Cup does Leicester qualify for the Champions league
I don't think so. England can get a fifth CL spot by a club winning either the Europa League or Champions League (or both) but only if that team was not one of the four that would already qualify based upon league position.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
They have been mercurial all season. Getting a few chances now, but Lyon playing pretty tight.
I am sure you will know this but if United win the Europa Cup does Leicester qualify for the Champions league
No, as I understand it there is no extra CL spot if Man U win.
Personally I am quite happy with EL. I don't think we are good enough for the CL. We made the last 16 3 Yr ago, but were seeded well, and wouldn't be this time. I think we can go a long way with the EL though, it is more our standard.
I don't think we will spend a fortune this transfer season, just the money that we get for Chilwell, and any of the squad players we can offload. I wouldn't expect any other significant departures.
Our owners are very supportive, but their business is Duty Free shops and I cannot see that being very lucrative at the moment.
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
Basically they're claiming that the air in the cabin is completely replaced every 10 minutes or so.
When you were a Notts MP, did anyone try and get anywhere with asbestos in CLASP schools?
I see that it is coming to the end of its design life, and I wonder if now is a good time to raise it with my MP given that investment is being targeted here and Notts has about 100 such schools and we currently have lots of govt party MPs.
Any comments welcome.
Afaics the asbestos APPG etc was mainly driven by Northern Lab MPs eg County Durham.
I don't think so. I remember CLASP schools being mentioned as needing replacement in due course, but nothing to do with asbestos, sorry.
Have to say a slightly disquieting headline to the 9pm BBC News - it seems Putin has agreed to "offer assistance to" Lukashenko against any external military threat amid claims of troop build-ups in both Poland and Lithuania.
The choice of words is interesting - Putin makes no commitment to supporting the Lukashenko administration against any internal threat.
I wouldn't be surprised if feints of troop movements were in place to keep the Belorussian military off-balance but there are signs the loyalty of some army units (as distinct from the police) may be questionable.
If I were the Belorussian opposition, I'd make some conciliatory noises toward Putin - this was, in my view the big mistake the Syrian opposition made - the Russian commitment wasn't to Assad but to the Latakia and Tartus bases. In the same way, Putin cannot have an overtly hostile Government in Minsk so the opposition has to convince Putin the departure of Lukashenko would not mean significant changes in the geopolitical positioning of Belarus.
Again, a bit of realpolitik here - the West should offer Putin leverage to ease Lukashenko out in a peaceful transition by refusing NATO or EU membership and recognising the close ties Belarus has to Russia.
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
Basically they're claiming that the air in the cabin is completely replaced every 10 minutes or so.
I`ve found the email: "High-efficiency particulate air filters (HEPA filters) that remove 99.97% of airborne viruses and bacteria, according to the International Air Transport Association".
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Where are the figures showing us that a large % of new cases are from returning holiday makers? It may help justifying quarantine and disruption but I haven’t seen any published.
It appears to be widely accepted that one of the principal reasons why the UK was hit as hard as it was back in March and April was because of mass importation of cases from holidaymakers. First there were the ski tourists from Northern Italy, and later sunbathers from Spain and France. We don't know yet how many new cases may have been imported this time around, but perhaps the Government didn't want to just let things carry on for another few weeks and treat overseas tourism as an exciting epidemiological experiment?
Shutting down foreign holidays would therefore appear to be largely a case of "once bitten, twice shy," although an awful lot of the public are still very frightened and new clampdowns like these will probably please a lot more people than they upset.
There is however a significant difference between then - when a handful of continental virus hotspots multiplied by the risk of travel inside an aeroplane delivered multiple cases of infection straight back to the UK (way more from Spain than Italy, according to virus DNA research), and now - when people are being restricted from driving home in their own cars from parts of France where the virus incidence is way lower than many cities in the UK.
Including Corsica - which has hardly been touched! If I were returning from there I`d stick two fingers up at the government rules.
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
Basically they're claiming that the air in the cabin is completely replaced every 10 minutes or so.
A good article here on flying. The Author is a Public Health Specialist.
As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?
Britain chose to outlaw sow stalls (basically cages BEFORE giving birth) in 1999 - it was a government decision which as I recall I was slightly involved in. They're still legal in Denmark, so you're right on that. Basically EU legislation gives a fairly low level playing field, and some countries choose to improve on it. In the same way, some EU countries have pulled ahead of us by banning the farrowing crates that I was talking about - Germany is now starting to phase them out. At some point, I expect this to be levelled up across the EU.
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward
Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.
It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.
Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.
Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.
It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
That much is obvious. I merely question why we should assume that cases are about to skyrocket.
(1) Because we've reduced social distancing measures and (2) Lots of people will be returning from places which have had big CV19 second waves
Don't forget that people are at their most infectious in the week before they show symptoms.
Let me turn the question around: given everywhere else that has lots of travel with infected parts of the world and have reduced social distancing measures, why shouldn't we have a second wave?
Are they publishing the data on what proportion of positive cases are showing symptoms? Given the very low positivity rate of the tests versus the spring, would it not be the case that they’re catching a lot of cases before symptoms appear this time, shortening the lag effect?
Also a hypothesis. Not only are they using granular geographic data to love bomb the most affected areas with extra testing and the cancellation of religious festivals. They’ve also implemented track and trace. Which was a waste of time at the beginning but with each passing week presumably becomes slightly more effective. Ergo the system finds slightly more asymptomatic cases than the previous week, cases numbers go up and so do positivity rates very slightly. In which case rising case numbers should be a sign of guarded optimism.
Comments
Yes, I take your points and appreciate your comments as ever.
As expected, the exams stuff has made little difference.
Is that Labour's first 39%? Or has there been one previously
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc942/prevalence/index.html
Think it had 43% when it was meant to be 42%
Especially as you have that excellent list from your daughter’s school to refer to.
Every time the Government does anything at all about Covid it is criticized from one side for being reckless, from the other for being Draconian, and often by both over the same decision at the same time. When it comes to holidays, those who have a desperate urge to haul out on beaches in the Balearics will be screaming at it for wrecking their plans, and an awful lot of terrified recluses will be wondering why in the name of God it let anyone take foreign holidays in the first place.
Personally, in this particular case I think the Government is right to raise the drawbridge. Ten days partying in Magaluf is not essential to anybody, and if it were to let holidaymakers just keep on travelling and this were subsequently linked to a spike in virus activity, then a lot of the same people who are now wailing about ruined holidays would be screaming for ministerial heads to roll, for the crime of having failed to learn from the past.
To take a different example, pretty much everyone agrees that it's unpleasant that sows should be kept for a month after giving birth in a tight crate where she can't even turn round, as is common practice, but systems that allow movement but protect piglets from the sow rolling over on them are more expensive, and the industry argues in *each* country that they shouldn't end the bad practice in *that* country because other countries will undercut them by selling pork more cheaply. Having an EU-wide phase-out avoids that problem.
That, and eyesight that could replace a microscope so you can find it to suck.
A lot of what is now treeless bog (such as Rannoch Moor) has the remains of trees embedded in the peat. I understand that this loss of cover was actually caused by climate change about 4000 years ago - the UK climate became too wet in some upland areas for trees to survive and nobody is quite sure why.
The western oak forests of the lower slopes (Sessile oak rather than English oak) were cut down by man for charcoal. And the pine forests of both west and east for wood.
It is overgrazing that keeps the hills bare today, though.
I would recommend a visit to Glen Feshie, which shows what can be achieved if you
a) Have a lot of money
b) Terminate as many deer as you can find with extreme prejudice
I'm intending to go to France. During which time i will spend most of the time in glorious isolation. And then come back and do the same!
I think the economic response also has an impact. If we recover a lot more slowly than other countries perhaps, or Brexit ends up being a complete mess.
Hope for the sake of us all, the Tories do a smashing job.
C2DE voted Tory:Lab 48:33 at the last election.
Yes the 18-24 age group was probably about the same the other way, but a lot of shouting has come from parents who are also affected.
(Whether there is actually overall substance to the claims may become more significant than it is in the current heat of the moment. If the actually University outcome is OK for a large majority will draw any sting to an extent.)
Llandudno is as busy as any summer day at present as is much of North Wales
As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?
All those would be relatively isolated and feel safe.
" Either past assessment(s) produced by the relevant exam board OR assessments developed by teachers to align to exam past assessments e.g. in the curriculum sampled and style of questions.
Marked non examination assessment can be used instead or in addition to mock examination results."
The CAG at my daughter`s school included consideration of things such as cognitive ability test and Year 10 (i.e. end of last year) exams - I don`t think these can be used as part of a mock-substitute.
Got your skiing booked for next year yet, or are you holding off like me?
Re planes - they are boasting new nifty filtrations systems - I can`t remember the details, not being that way inclined, but it sounded impressive.
You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
Can I ask you something else, Nick?
When you were a Notts MP, did anyone try and get anywhere with asbestos in CLASP schools?
I see that it is coming to the end of its design life, and I wonder if now is a good time to raise it with my MP given that investment is being targeted here and Notts has about 100 such schools and we currently have lots of govt party MPs.
Any comments welcome.
Afaics the asbestos APPG etc was mainly driven by Northern Lab MPs eg County Durham.
I've no broadband here in Ireland and very little data left hot spotting my mobile.
Personally I am quite happy with EL. I don't think we are good enough for the CL. We made the last 16 3 Yr ago, but were seeded well, and wouldn't be this time. I think we can go a long way with the EL though, it is more our standard.
I don't think we will spend a fortune this transfer season, just the money that we get for Chilwell, and any of the squad players we can offload. I wouldn't expect any other significant departures.
Our owners are very supportive, but their business is Duty Free shops and I cannot see that being very lucrative at the moment.
and
(2) Lots of people will be returning from places which have had big CV19 second waves
Don't forget that people are at their most infectious in the week before they show symptoms.
Let me turn the question around: given everywhere else that has lots of travel with infected parts of the world and have reduced social distancing measures, why shouldn't we have a second wave?
Middle class people go on holiday to France.
So we are seeing the leveling up that Bozo promised.
Have to say a slightly disquieting headline to the 9pm BBC News - it seems Putin has agreed to "offer assistance to" Lukashenko against any external military threat amid claims of troop build-ups in both Poland and Lithuania.
The choice of words is interesting - Putin makes no commitment to supporting the Lukashenko administration against any internal threat.
I wouldn't be surprised if feints of troop movements were in place to keep the Belorussian military off-balance but there are signs the loyalty of some army units (as distinct from the police) may be questionable.
If I were the Belorussian opposition, I'd make some conciliatory noises toward Putin - this was, in my view the big mistake the Syrian opposition made - the Russian commitment wasn't to Assad but to the Latakia and Tartus bases. In the same way, Putin cannot have an overtly hostile Government in Minsk so the opposition has to convince Putin the departure of Lukashenko would not mean significant changes in the geopolitical positioning of Belarus.
Again, a bit of realpolitik here - the West should offer Putin leverage to ease Lukashenko out in a peaceful transition by refusing NATO or EU membership and recognising the close ties Belarus has to Russia.
https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/1294712002322014211
This new party will get absolutely sod all support outside of Twitter. Anything run by or involving Corbyn will immediately be unpopular.
These people will only do Keir a favour.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/paging-dr-hamblin-flying-safe/614155/
Also a hypothesis. Not only are they using granular geographic data to love bomb the most affected areas with extra testing and the cancellation of religious festivals. They’ve also implemented track and trace. Which was a waste of time at the beginning but with each passing week presumably becomes slightly more effective. Ergo the system finds slightly more asymptomatic cases than the previous week, cases numbers go up and so do positivity rates very slightly. In which case rising case numbers should be a sign of guarded optimism.