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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post

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  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
  • We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Sorry Nick

    Corbyn is toxic to labour
  • Scott_xP said:
    And that is why electronic voting is such a bad idea: much easier to move a few electrons around than to dispose of millions of ballots.
  • Good goal City
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    America would be in a very sorry state if "President trying to steal election" wasn't a big story across the country.
  • We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Hi Nick,

    You have a great deal more experience and knowledge than me but I simply think Momentum has become utterly toxic and something that is only bad for the future electoral prospects of our party.

    I think we will simply have to agree to disagree - but thanks for your service all the same. I had not realised it was you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?
  • If a new left-wing group wants to setup, something like Progress for the left, then that's fine for me. But Momentum is utterly toxic now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.

    Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.

    https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/
  • I've watched live sport at the ground with other spectators while drinking beer this afternoon.

    It was village cricket but it was great.
  • Foxy said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.

    Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.

    https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/
    He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.
  • glw said:

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
    Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?
    Adopt the US Second Amendment? I didn't think they had moved that far right...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    glw said:

    America would be in a very sorry state if "President trying to steal election" wasn't a big story across the country.
    Interesting points in the comments about how one of the reasons this might be cutting through is not necessarily to do with the direct issue of the effect of mail in ballots. It is that by playing politics with the USPS for the purpose of disrupting them, Trump is actually putting in jeopardy things that matter more to people - medicine, social security cheques, pay cheques (and even things like birthday presents!). That's what you get when all you think about is politics, and forget that the business of Government is about far more than getting elected or putting one over on your opponents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?
    It will come in handy as an excuse for Starmer to remove them.

    Ah, my coat...
  • Foxy said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    Nick, what do you think about yesterday's tweet from the Leeds branch of Momentum that advocated arming the proletariat?
    Adopt the US Second Amendment? I didn't think they had moved that far right...
    I think we need to go all out to get the Third Amendment adopted in the UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    glw said:

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
    Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)
    I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.
  • I don't think Momentum will be expelled, for what it is worth. I think a significant bulk of their membership will leave when Corbyn and co are expelled.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.

    Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.

    https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/
    He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.
    I agree, but that manifesto is still on his website. He is no Blairite.
  • ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
    Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)
    I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.
    It’s much easier just to use logs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
    Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)
    I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.
    It’s much easier just to use logs.
    I’ll take your word for it.

    I’ve only ever used logs for burning in my stove, but I could have a go at using them for division if you think it would help.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Expelling Corbyn would be a game changer
    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.
    I don't think SKS is inclined to expel anyone for ideological reasons, though some of the more egregious antisemites might be if they refuse to repent. Some may leave by their own accord, and perhaps Jezza may stand down in 2024, though I doubt it.

    Corbynites who think SKS too centrist may be reassured by his leadership manifesto, which was more left wing than any GE manifesto of my memory.

    https://keirstarmer.com/plans/10-pledges/
    He simply must not stand on half of those pledges. They are toxic.
    I agree, but that manifesto is still on his website. He is no Blairite.
    I believe it's not linked to anymore, am I correct?

    I never believed he was a Blairite, he's slightly to the left of Miliband just pragmatic and based on what the evidence actually says is popular.

    Hence the patriotic angle
  • I am Jeremy Corbyn
  • I watched the whole thing this morning, and I thought it went well.

    Photos of Boris looking like a bit of a prat are not exactly news.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A new record for Covid cases now also reported for Malta. I've read a little about what's been going on there - seems the authorities permitted a number of festivals to take place, and the Italians are also linking a lot of cases that they have had to young adults returning from parties in Malta.

    It's no wonder that the UK Government have knocked it off the travel corridor list. Greece is apparently next in the crosshairs. Pretty soon, the only countries that people from the UK will be allowed to visit are remote British territories like Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands, and countries like Australia and New Zealand that will lock you in quarantine on the way in even if you don't need to self-isolate after you get back.

    Why Johnson doesn't just cut to the chase and tell the population that holidays abroad are cancelled until further notice I don't know. An awful lot of voters, not least businesspeople and workers in the domestic tourist sector, would be delighted.

    Worth remembering, though, that the UK already has lots of infected people, they just aren't showing up in the numbers yet.

    So whether people go abroad or to Blackpool, then cases are going to be spiking in the next couple of weeks.
    Depends on your definition of "lots." UK cases have been trickling upwards for six weeks; however, there is still no sign of a sharp uptick, which continues to suggest that carpet bombing of the problem areas is at least largely responsible for bumping the numbers up.

    It still looks like rather different things are going on in different countries in Europe. If we look at differences in behaviours - amongst them the range of social distancing measures and how well they are being adhered to; the proportion the of the population still voluntarily self-isolating; the numbers of people working from home; those businesses that have been permitted to open, and those that remain shuttered; and the amount of social activity taking place (where people are gathering, how frequently, in how great a number of density, and the age cohorts involved) - then we might begin to better understand the situation.
    The problem is that you're looking at the numbers now and think they are telling you the current level of infections in the UK. They're not. They're telling you what the level of infections was two weeks ago.

    You could lock everyone up in their rooms today, and disallow all contact with other human beings, and the numbers would still keep rising for the next two weeks or so.
    That much is obvious. I merely question why we should assume that cases are about to skyrocket.
    (1) Because we've reduced social distancing measures
    and
    (2) Lots of people will be returning from places which have had big CV19 second waves

    Don't forget that people are at their most infectious in the week before they show symptoms.

    Let me turn the question around: given everywhere else that has lots of travel with infected parts of the world and have reduced social distancing measures, why shouldn't we have a second wave?
    I would tend to agree that we need a little longer to be sure that foreign travel isn't going to cause a big uplift in cases, but holidays did resume some time ago and haven't caused any apparent problems up until now, so we shall see.

    As for the reduction of social distancing measures, none of the major loosening measures adopted prior to August (i.e. long enough ago to have fed through into more widespread illness) have caused any generalised increase in cases at all; there have been some isolated outbreaks associated with pubs, and that's about it.

    It remains the case that, whilst detected cases are gradually creeping upwards - something that can easily be explained as a consequence of more, and more targeted, testing - all of the other indicators (triage calls, hospitalisations, ventilator bed occupancy and mortality) are either low and stable or continuing to trend downwards. There is no evidence at all of any sustained deterioration in the Covid situation at any juncture since we passed the peak in April, and no particular reason to suppose that this will change imminently, either.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Maybe but good move
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Are you referring to this?

    https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/1294712002322014211

    This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Plenty more pale horses sleeping in the pandemic stables
  • Yokes said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Are you referring to this?

    https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/1294712002322014211

    This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.
    The overwhelming majority of the public will sigh relief when they see Corbyn removed IMHO
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    I watched the whole thing this morning, and I thought it went well.

    Photos of Boris looking like a bit of a prat are not exactly news.
    People have short memories, particularly about BJ being lots of things.
  • City 3 - 1 down
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Oh I just can't bear it.

    And no election till 2024.
  • It's a bit weird all these Twitter users saying Labour isn't left-wing anymore.

    As far as I know, they still support mostly all the policies from 2019, which even I don't agree with
  • https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898


    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.

    Nick, I'm not and never have been a Labour member or supporter - I've had enough problems with my own Party.

    Nobody compels anyone to be a member of a party - if you want to stay and argue a viewpoint, fine, but if that is rejected in favour of a policy platform which you might not personally support but may find enough favour with the public to win Labour sufficient votes to form the next Government, what will you do?

    Jeremy Corbyn was happy enough to stand on Blair's manifesto in 1997 just as Blair himself stood on Foot's programme in 1983 and I suspect neither was wholly enamoured.

    My Party right or wrong only gets you so far as I've discovered and while loyalty is a virtue often to be admired it can cause personal issues with principle.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Maybe but good move
    Putting the charlatans who run the Test and Trace system in charge? What could possibly go wrong?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    Big problem for Labour is how low that Lib Dem vote is.

    What was the Green? And the Scottish subsample...
    The Scottish subsample has an unreasonably low SNP share give the overall figure is SNP 4%.
  • That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Maybe but good move
    Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Wait, we have this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer, as a member here

    AFAIK he's our leading politician. The bloke who won Newcastle-under-Lyme for the Tories last year used to post here regularly, but left when he won his seat.
    Occasionally the cognoscenti drop hints that a couple of the people who post here are very prominent people, but never enough of a hint to work out who.
    Several of us are teachers: do we count? (And no, I didn’t ask if we could count...)
    I can count, it’s long division that I find a bugger.
    It’s much easier just to use logs.
    I’ll take your word for it.

    I’ve only ever used logs for burning in my stove, but I could have a go at using them for division if you think it would help.
    I forget how young some posters are...

    It’s easy enough. You convert both numbers to their respective logarithms, then subtract the divisor from the dividend which gives you the logarithm of the answer. All you then have to do is convert that to a normal number and there you are! What could be simpler?

    And yes, I used this method at school because it is easier than trying to do long division by hand once the numbers have more than a couple of digits.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    It's a bit weird all these Twitter users saying Labour isn't left-wing anymore.

    As far as I know, they still support mostly all the policies from 2019, which even I don't agree with

    It’s called the No True Scotsman fallacy.

    Roughly, what they think is right, and anyone who doesn’t agree with them even on the tiniest detail is wrong.

    It’s profoundly anti-democratic and stupid, especially as most of their ideas don’t actually work and/or are terribly damaging in practice, and is the reason why much though I despise Johnson and Cummings I was hugely relieved to see Corbyn get his arse handed to him last December.

    Such people even if they are not actually evil - although some are - are very dangerous.
    Good night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
    So they can skip their first term of A levels?
  • alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Maybe but good move
    Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!
    Merged as far as I read
  • Yokes said:

    We simply must expel Momentum, if we are to move forward

    Are you referring to this?

    https://twitter.com/Labour_Insider/status/1294712002322014211

    This is perhaps not as high risk a move as meets the eye. The two big UK political parties are broad churches, its just about the idealogues not being in charge so in that way its not so good if Labour can't encompass the hard left, even if it is effectively muzzled. On the risk of a breakaway party, I'm not sure in electoral terms how much damage it would really do to Labour IF Starmer can connect with the public on a personal level whilst steering a don't frighten the horses Social Democrat path. Those hard left Labour types prepared to die in a ditch vs getting the Conservatives out may be surprisingly small.
    TUSC tended to get about 300 votes per candidate.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    Probably over-egging it.
    More confirmation that they're a dick, if such confirmation were needed.
  • Foxy said:

    That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
    So they can skip their first term of A levels?
    Exams take about two weeks.

    If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    She's finally accepted that the Brexiteers have won.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Scott_xP said:
    Not a terrible idea. Hopefully there will be a lot of fundamental changes to both in the process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    And the award for most unsurprising news of the month goes to...

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1294737447625129985
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited August 2020



    The 'level playing field' in other words?

    As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?

    Britain chose to outlaw sow stalls (basically cages BEFORE giving birth) in 1999 - it was a government decision which as I recall I was slightly involved in. They're still legal in Denmark, so you're right on that. Basically EU legislation gives a fairly low level playing field, and some countries choose to improve on it. In the same way, some EU countries have pulled ahead of us by banning the farrowing crates that I was talking about - Germany is now starting to phase them out. At some point, I expect this to be levelled up across the EU.
    OK, many thanks for that. I see a fair amount of outdoor pig rearing in this area which I also understood was unusual in Denmark, although I may be years out of date as to the extent of purely indoor rearing in the UK. It is a shame labelling isn't clearer, particularly when it comes to prepared foods.

    I would disagree with you on lots of things but not on this, although I'm not someone who would ban animal rearing entirely as some would seem to want to. Grazing (and foraging) animals have always been part of the landscape.



  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited August 2020

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    I think it is true.

    What the PM is doing in that photo I don’t know, but it is not a salute that I’ve ever seen given that his fingers are curled.

    I would like to see the full clip before passing judgement.
  • I'm quite taken by my vision of Trump as a third world dictator.

    Its easy to imagine him hosting the Rumble in the Jungle or declaring himself King of Scotland.

    The corruption and persecutions even more so.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Wasn't PHE set up by Lansley? Another Grayling-level fool.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    The trouble with all this "protect against a pandemic" stuff. Knowing what we know now, how do we think the country would collectively respond to a repeat of the Swine flu pandemic of 2010? What lessons are actually going to be learnt from this? Will any new body set up end up dealing permanently in 'worst case' scenarios, or would there be scope for balanced responses that didn't wreck the economy and normal life?

    Is it likely that we would pick up early enough that despite being destined to infect 1/3 of the planet, it would be basically completely harmless? And/or despite extremely low death rates, would enough anecdotal stories of long term damage in isolated cases emerge that everyone would be confined to their homes anyway?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
    So they can skip their first term of A levels?
    Exams take about two weeks.

    If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.
    How long to mark? What about the pupils going to separate sixth forms?

    Sure, anyone can produce an algorithm to give the same proportions of grades as last year. Indeed give some monkeys some dice.

    The point though is to give marks out in proportion to performance...
  • That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
    Most pupils would do worse than their predictions and probably worse than the algorithm given that most will not have looked at the subjects since March.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    To protect us from a pandemic.

    A phrase about stable doors and horses bolting springs to mind.
    Maybe but good move
    Abolished, or having responsibility for Covid-19 removed? I doubt it could be abolished completely in a month!
    Merged as far as I read
    Twitter screen grab says "scrapped and replaced". But then says "Covid 19 work to be merged with NHS test and trace". Covid-19 may have been PHE's biggest test. But it's hardly the only thing it's responsible for.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited August 2020

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
  • As there are more GCSE grades than A-level grades I would expect there to be more change.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    my half time bet on Lyon at 45 to win the CL looks good, all they have to do is beat Bayern on Tuesday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    Why is Peru doing so badly re Covid-19?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is Peru doing so badly re Covid-19?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Maybe they just have pretty good public administration and data collection agencies and are actually doing a lot of testing and counting of cases.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Total, epic fuck up by Guardiola tonight. He can't stop himself arseing about with his team selection and formation and yet again has lost a Champions League Quarter Final he should have won. City have lost against a team they are miles better than and it's Pep's fault.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...
    What else do you expect from a clown?
  • That is exactly the sort of mistake I would make, so I’m going to sympathise with Dawn on this one.
  • For what it's worth, I reckon Watson should not be in the Lords but I just am watching the Corbynite response to this with popcorn
  • kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    I thought jazz hands were the preferred way of applauding now?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/clapping-banned-manchester-university-students-union-jazz-hands-applause-a8566531.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...
    Probably right, 'piccanninies' and 'water melons smiles' is more like being a racist.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Yokes said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.
    It's like everything. Case by case. Just depends. The context. The atmosphere. The saluter and the salutee. In this case I think a smile and a bow - and possibly an elbow bump - would have been better.
  • Maybe Dawn entered the letter in the computer wrong
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    For what it's worth, I reckon Watson should not be in the Lords but I just am watching the Corbynite response to this with popcorn

    You are right. This is a mistake by Starmer.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    That's an easy one to solve.

    Everyone takes their GCSEs next term.

    Then we compare grades to predictions.

    And wont that be interesting.
    So they can skip their first term of A levels?
    Exams take about two weeks.

    If schools and pupils want them taken they will be taken.
    How long to mark? What about the pupils going to separate sixth forms?

    Sure, anyone can produce an algorithm to give the same proportions of grades as last year. Indeed give some monkeys some dice.

    The point though is to give marks out in proportion to performance...
    There's always a multitude of reasons for not doing something when you don't want to do it.

    And there will be no shortage of pupils who will be very happy with their GCSEs and will certainly not want the last bit of their five month summer holiday being interrupted.

    Want an easy way to to give marks in proportion to performance ?

    Then take each individual's predictions and reduce one of their A levels down by one grade, if they did four A levels then reduce two down by one grade.

    Random certainly but the whole country would be treated the same.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533



    The 'level playing field' in other words?

    As far as pork welfare goes, I always understood that Danish pork was generally of a lower welfare standard than British pork and I normally refuse to buy it. I assume, then, that this was just a choice of the UK farmer rather then the EU legislation?

    Britain chose to outlaw sow stalls (basically cages BEFORE giving birth) in 1999 - it was a government decision which as I recall I was slightly involved in. They're still legal in Denmark, so you're right on that. Basically EU legislation gives a fairly low level playing field, and some countries choose to improve on it. In the same way, some EU countries have pulled ahead of us by banning the farrowing crates that I was talking about - Germany is now starting to phase them out. At some point, I expect this to be levelled up across the EU.
    OK, many thanks for that. I see a fair amount of outdoor pig rearing in this area which I also understood was unusual in Denmark, although I may be years out of date as to the extent of purely indoor rearing in the UK. It is a shame labelling isn't clearer, particularly when it comes to prepared foods.

    I would disagree with you on lots of things but not on this, although I'm not someone who would ban animal rearing entirely as some would seem to want to. Grazing (and foraging) animals have always been part of the landscape.



    Thanks! Yes, Compassion in World Farming (the charity whose UK arm I run) isn't vegan or vegetarian - we argue that for the forseeable future there will be all kinds of food, so the priority is to treat the animals decently. We do think that over time people should eat less meat, partly because of the environmental impact of intensive farms based on massive grain imports, but if the animals get a decent period out of doors and are treated well, that's fine. We're friends with the Pasture-Fed Livestock Association, which is all about outdoor cattle farming etc.

    One of our campaigns is for clearer labelling, and there Denmark is ahead of us in their domestic sales - they have four welfare levels above the legal minimum for each of chickens and pigs, agreed by government, industry and animal welfare groups, and it's agreed that supermarkets can charge 10% more for each level. So people who are feeling reasonably well off can go for level 4 and pay 40% more, etc. We'd love to see something like that here, and a consultation is expected in the autumn. In general, the current government has made lots of positive noises on farm animal welfare, and the whole Defra team is helpful. They know my politics but we don't let that get in the way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    Scott_xP said:
    And that is why electronic voting is such a bad idea: much easier to move a few electrons around than to dispose of millions of ballots.
    Which does rather beg the question of why any dictatorial regime, when deciding upon how much theatre to employ in its fake elections, does not just go with electronic? Not that I wish to be in the business of advising dictators how to be more effective. The Chinese government probably provide that service.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    I thought jazz hands were the preferred way of applauding now?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/clapping-banned-manchester-university-students-union-jazz-hands-applause-a8566531.html
    I'd rather never show appreciation for anything ever again.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780


    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.

    Good to hear that you support Starmer, Nick. I trust then that you won't be voting for the 6 on the Momentum NEC constituency slate, because they patently don't. There is a difference between a left-wing ginger group and an organised faction which from its public voice at least now seems to spend every waking hour doing everything in its power to undermine the person who is clearly and obviously the party's best and indeed only hope in 2024.

    Personally I'm going to put Ann Black as No 1 on my ballot, because I am sick and tired of the factionalism within the party. That by Momentum's warped definition will put me on the "right", even though she used to be on the left slate until Momentum booted her off because she couldn't be relied on to always toe the party-within-a-party line.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...
    Probably right, 'piccanninies' and 'water melons smiles' is more like being a racist.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-and-the-piccaninny-smear
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    That is exactly the sort of mistake I would make, so I’m going to sympathise with Dawn on this one.
    It's worth a chuckle, but is clearly not a big deal. It's not as though I had known it was VJ day until I saw the news, so I'm not one to judge.

  • I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.

    Good to hear that you support Starmer, Nick. I trust then that you won't be voting for the 6 on the Momentum NEC constituency slate, because they patently don't. There is a difference between a left-wing ginger group and an organised faction which from its public voice at least now seems to spend every waking hour doing everything in its power to undermine the person who is clearly and obviously the party's best and indeed only hope in 2024.

    Personally I'm going to put Ann Black as No 1 on my ballot, because I am sick and tired of the factionalism within the party. That by Momentum's warped definition will put me on the "right", even though she used to be on the left slate until Momentum booted her off because she couldn't be relied on to always toe the party-within-a-party line.
    Starmer also has my full support and I am probably as left wing as many of Momentum but I simply cannot support such a toxic organisation who spend time attacking people like me as Blairites
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    It's crass. Like greeting a black guy with jazz hands.
    Yes saluting a veteran is just like being a racist. Jeez...
    IMO people need to stop taking offence so easily, especially "on behalf" of other people who probably don't agree with them anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    I'm not familiar with the expression 'tawny skinned' before.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited August 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Yokes said:

    https://twitter.com/TheTweetofShaun/status/1294702067030863873

    Is this correct? I am afraid I am ignorant of such customs, I feel very ashamed

    No, unless you are jumped up arsehole who takes yourself too seriously. Civvies have saluted uniforms forever. That the military personnel might find them a bit of a dick isn't the same thing as being them being disrespectful by saluting.
    It's like everything. Case by case. Just depends. The context. The atmosphere. The saluter and the salutee. In this case I think a smile and a bow - and possibly an elbow bump - would have been better.
    The context was a minute or so of chat between a nonagenarian veteran of the war against Japan and the PM. I don’t remember this one being shown, but the one they did show looked fine (Prince Charles was getting a lot more air time).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53786610
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    I am Jeremy Corbyn

    You're capable of self reflection, so that's clearly not true.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    stodge said:


    I'm a member of Momentum, CHB - you want to expel me? I'm been in the party for 49 years and I support Starmer, but I still favour having a left-wing ginger group, and if it didn't exist I'd want to set one up.

    Nick, I'm not and never have been a Labour member or supporter - I've had enough problems with my own Party.

    Nobody compels anyone to be a member of a party - if you want to stay and argue a viewpoint, fine, but if that is rejected in favour of a policy platform which you might not personally support but may find enough favour with the public to win Labour sufficient votes to form the next Government, what will you do?

    Jeremy Corbyn was happy enough to stand on Blair's manifesto in 1997 just as Blair himself stood on Foot's programme in 1983 and I suspect neither was wholly enamoured.

    My Party right or wrong only gets you so far as I've discovered and while loyalty is a virtue often to be admired it can cause personal issues with principle.

    Was talking to CHB about his proposed purge! As for me, it'd have to be pretty drastic to make me leave - sudden embrace of austerity to fgill the gap left by Boris, perhpasl. I always felt that there were enough good things to enthuse about that I could put up with stuff I was more dubious about. I think most members feel that way, and mass expulsions would be picking an unnecessary fight.
This discussion has been closed.