politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

Andypet said:

Professor Curtice on Today saying Ukip on about 25%, which is the same as last year. Labour 3% up on 2010 but considerably down on 2012 when similar seats were fought.

Last year was 22%, so 25% would be progress.

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP13-30/local-elections-2013

My world is not disappearing. I think the long term future for the libDems is good; though there will be short term losses. The Tories will become more Europhobic and Euro-obsessed, Milibands Labour couldnt run a Whelk stall. The LibDems will be the sole sane centrist party after the 2015 cull.

But even if my forecast is wrong, after watching QT last night, Jeremy Browne was head and shoulders above the rest of the panel and I will be voting for people like him over the Roger Helmers and Neil Hamiltons of this country.

UKIP has gained a lot of councillors and new supporters tonight. Farages personnel management does not have a great track record, so we shall how effective he has been in keeping out the fruitcake tendency.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

Cambridge, popular vote:

Lab 14,802 (37.15%)
LD 11,302 (28.36%)
Con 6,603 (16.57)
Green 5,700 (14.30%)
Ind 1,113 (2.79%)
UKIP 328 (0.82%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +14.98%
LD -9.48%
Con -5.92%
Green -1.68%
Ind +2.79%
UKIP +0.41%

Swing, LD to Lab: 12.23%

foxinsoxuk said:

My world is not disappearing. I think the long term future for the libDems is good; though there will be short term losses. The Tories will become more Europhobic and Euro-obsessed, Milibands Labour couldnt run a Whelk stall. The LibDems will be the sole sane centrist party after the 2015 cull.

But even if my forecast is wrong, after watching QT last night, Jeremy Browne was head and shoulders above the rest of the panel and I will be voting for people like him over the Roger Helmers and Neil Hamiltons of this country.

UKIP has gained a lot of councillors and new supporters tonight. Farages personnel management does not have a great track record, so we shall how effective he has been in keeping out the fruitcake tendency.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

Alas, you've long passed peak LD councillor numbers. It's been all downhill since 2008. :-(

http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/local-elections-councillors-over-time.png

An interesting perspective. What is UKIP going to do about the issue? Perhaps we could import Ukranian and Thai prostitutes so as to not have British jobs for British workers...

MrJones said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.

The BNP would never have got those votes in the first place if the political class hadn't ignored thousands of working class children being forced into prostitution.

Basingstoke & Deane, popular vote:

Con 12,116 (33.04%)
Lab 8,763 (23.89%)
UKIP 7,618 (20.77%)
LD 4,918 (13.41%)
Ind 3,259 (8.89%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Con -13.77%
Lab +6.57%
UKIP +20.21%
LD -17.09%
Ind +6.24%

Swing, Con to Lab: 10.17%

I take the long view, there will be short term fluctuations.

And being in coalition was always going to lose some support from the other wing of the party, but overall I am pleased by the LD record in government. It is a lot better than UKIPs lamentable performance as elected MEPs.

anotherDave said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My world is not disappearing. I think the long term future for the libDems is good; though there will be short term losses. The Tories will become more Europhobic and Euro-obsessed, Milibands Labour couldnt run a Whelk stall. The LibDems will be the sole sane centrist party after the 2015 cull.

But even if my forecast is wrong, after watching QT last night, Jeremy Browne was head and shoulders above the rest of the panel and I will be voting for people like him over the Roger Helmers and Neil Hamiltons of this country.

UKIP has gained a lot of councillors and new supporters tonight. Farages personnel management does not have a great track record, so we shall how effective he has been in keeping out the fruitcake tendency.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

Alas, you've long passed peak LD councillor numbers. It's been all downhill since 2008. :-(

http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/local-elections-councillors-over-time.png

foxinsoxuk said:

I take the long view, there will be short term fluctuations.

And being in coalition was always going to lose some support from the other wing of the party, but overall I am pleased by the LD record in government. It is a lot better than UKIPs lamentable performance as elected MEPs.

anotherDave said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My world is not disappearing. I think the long term future for the libDems is good; though there will be short term losses. The Tories will become more Europhobic and Euro-obsessed, Milibands Labour couldnt run a Whelk stall. The LibDems will be the sole sane centrist party after the 2015 cull.

But even if my forecast is wrong, after watching QT last night, Jeremy Browne was head and shoulders above the rest of the panel and I will be voting for people like him over the Roger Helmers and Neil Hamiltons of this country.

UKIP has gained a lot of councillors and new supporters tonight. Farages personnel management does not have a great track record, so we shall how effective he has been in keeping out the fruitcake tendency.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

Alas, you've long passed peak LD councillor numbers. It's been all downhill since 2008. :-(

http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/local-elections-councillors-over-time.png

You are aware the coalition began in 2010? The LD decline pre-dated it.

Not to worry, I'm sure there will be other statist, anti-democratic parties looking for support in the future too. A newly demerged SDP perhaps? Chin up.

It may have escaped your notice, but there are other issues than Europe. The LDs stand for a fairer society, with government social support backed by sound finances. This was New Labours appeal, as was Dave Camerons., but both are in danger of abandoning the centre. The LDs policy on Europe is to change the EU from within, which is a policy supported by up to 80% of those polled, so not an extreme position.

SimonStClare said:

@MrSox - The LibDems will be the sole sane centrist party after the 2015 cull.

Define 'centrist' - surely they will remain a pro EU extremist party?

Hertsmere, popular vote:

Con 11,024 (46.22%)
Lab 5,629 (23.60%)
UKIP 5,276 (22.12%)
LD 1,314 (5.51%)
Ind 446 (1.87%)
Green 163 (0.68%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Con -14.69%
Lab -2.59%
UKIP +22.12%
LD -4.80%
Ind +0.93%
Green +0.68%

Lest I be accused of belittling UKIP's progress in the NE, I do think they will become the de facto Opposition up here. But there will be slim pickings compared to down south.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

It'll get worse before it gets better.

Remind you of anyone?

The SNP used its parliamentary majority to water down crucial concerns about an independent Scotland's membership of the European Union, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.....

Sources closes to the European and External Relations Committee claimed the behaviour showed the SNP was censoring legitimate debate about government policy in the run up to the independence referendum.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10850525/SNP-uses-majority-to-stifle-criticism-of-Alex-Salmonds-EU-membership-stance.html

Scott_P said:

@benedictbrogan: London population is 'well educated', which is why Ukip hasn't done well there, says Ukip's @SuzanneEvans1. Eh?

@paulwaugh: UKIP spkswoman @SuzanneEvans1 lost her Merton seat: 'We do hv a more media savvy, well educated population in London"

@DPJHodges: UKIP spokesman "We don't tend to do well in London because it's cultural, educated and young". Their words. Not mine...

She said 'we haven't managed to get our message across in London'. I think, in fact, they've managed to do that only too well.

GeoffM said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Four party politics in England now too. We are definitely in a new place. Looking at what has happened in past electoral cycles to make projection/predictions about this one will be increasingly futile. Roll on PR.

Yawn. Everything that ever happens ever seems to be a cue for the usual suspects to drone on about P bloody R.

If you don't want to see UKIP's support reflected in Parliament FPTP is for you, I guess.

Dr Fox,

Well done for supporting the LDs after a bad night, but your view that they want to reform the EU from within seems to have been lost in the posturing. Unless by reform, they mean seeing how much further they can push their tongues up the EU's wotsit.

I'm not against EU membership, but it has changed a lot in 40 years and does need reform. That probably is the majority view, so why didn't this populist policy get mentioned?

I see UKIP gained 11 in Basildon, 10 in Rotherham, 6 each in Southend and Portsmouth. We've still got a lot of UKIP-friendly authorities to declare. I'd expect 200-250 net gains by close of play.

Bit of a 'double whammy' that then.....

foxinsoxuk said:

I doubt that rUK would fund foreign universities, even Scottish ones where rUK students are entitled to study with the same fees as Scots.

CarlottaVance said:

Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):

Scotland’s universities are being prevented from going public with their “grave concerns” about independence because they rely on SNP ministers for their funding, according to an extraordinary letter signed by some of the world’s most eminent medical academics....

...The Nationalists have claimed that Scotland would continue to receive a disproportionately large amount of UK Research Council grants after separation but this was rejected by the letter’s signatories, who are based at Scotland’s five universities with medical schools.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10850366/Scotlands-universities-prevented-from-speaking-out-against-independence.html

@paulwaugh: Polling analyst John Curtice: "Labour not even doing as well as they were able to do earlier in this Parliament…[1/2]"

@paulwaugh: Curtice: "Reinforcing the doubts that hv always been..not entirely clear the British electorate regard Labour as a clear alternative" [2/2]

Strong result for the Lib Dems in Eastleigh bolsters the argument that they will be hard to shift in seats that they aren't defending against Labour, or in Scotland.

OblitusSumMe said:

Strong result for the Lib Dems in Eastleigh bolsters the argument that they will be hard to shift in seats that they aren't defending against Labour, or in Scotland.

No it doesn't.

The Survation poll that predicted a UKIP win at the General Election, also predicted a LD win at the local election.

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

@paulwaugh: Uh-oh, @DerbyshireUKIP attacks UKIP London's @SuzanneEvans1 for implying voters up north are 'thick'.

So over 1000 seats have been entered so far (getting a bit tired now!)

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

Totally OT, but I hope the weather is nice back home, because I am currently in the middle of a howling blizzard!

Carl Bildt tweets: Exit polls in the Netherlands shows gains for pro-Europeans and losses for anti-Europeans. Against expectations - and most welcome

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?

So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.

RobD said:

So over 1000 seats have been entered so far (getting a bit tired now!)

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

Totally OT, but I hope the weather is nice back home, because I am currently in the middle of a howling blizzard!

Many thanks for your spreadsheet efforts. I particularly like the pie charts showing the proportions of elected councillors, 2010 and 2014.

Bit of a grey morning in Berkshire.

RobD said:

So over 1000 seats have been entered so far (getting a bit tired now!)

http://goo.gl/4AJwpD

Totally OT, but I hope the weather is nice back home, because I am currently in the middle of a howling blizzard!

Thanks very much for this effort!

Rotherham, popular vote:

UKIP 30,084 (44.26%)
Lab 27,793 (40.89%)
Con 6,482 (9.54%)
Ind 1,886 (2.77%)
Green 487 (0.72%)
Respect 484 (0.71%)
TUSC 395 (0.58%)
Patients Not Profits 223 (0.33%)
LD 136 (0.20%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

UKIP +31.89%
Lab -3.49%
Con -13.22%
Ind -7.04%
Green +0.46%
LD -2.98%

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?

So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.

I believe the poster is suggesting that a big increase in the UKIP vote represents, in itself, a good night for Labour.

Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.

Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.

AndyJS said:

Rotherham, popular vote:

UKIP 30,084 (44.26%)
Lab 27,793 (40.89%)
Con 6,482 (9.54%)
Ind 1,886 (2.77%)
Green 487 (0.72%)
Respect 484 (0.71%)
TUSC 395 (0.58%)
Patients Not Profits 223 (0.33%)
LD 136 (0.20%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

UKIP +31.89%
Lab -3.49%
Con -13.22%
Ind -7.04%
Green +0.46%
LD -2.98%

Best result out there for Ukip, especially in the north? Looks like they won 10 of 21 seats on offer?

Rafael Behr: Hmm. Big slice of vote against govt parties not going to main opposition a year before gen election. Not good results for Labour.

I wonder where all these Ukip voters in Rotherham are flocking from?

Birmingham Erdington's village idiot, aka Mr Harman:

"I expect a significant protest vote for UKIP meaning a bad night for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems."

Its not just the Conservatives and LibDems that UKIP voters are protesting against.

But that's something your missus doesn't want to understand is it.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

It seems London and the university towns/cities are immune to UKIP, and strongly against. Interesting that this is where most of our leading politicians and media commentators tend to live.

So, the question remains: will they learn the right lessons from this?

I imagine that the response will be a high degree of preening self-regard.

I'm actually quite interested as to how my soft left friends on Facebook, who live in London, will react. They are intelligent, fun and thoughtful people. They should ask themselves some interesting But they just see red where UKIP is concerned.

So, I'm not holding my breath; I expect a similar angry reaction as some had when the AV vote was lost. But I'm not going to stop hoping I'm wrong.

Betfair is showing a big change in Tory vs Lab Maj this morning and yet most seats is moving a lot less albeit crossover is approaching...

So far with half the votive offerings slaughtered, the entrails are saying, "we live in interesting times"

The Hammersmith humiliation will really be hurting the Conservatives today.

It should also shut up the "Conservatives to do well in London because of gentrification" and "Conservatives to do well in London because of the strong economy" crowds.

But it wont because "Conservatives to do well in London" is an article of faith to the Cameroons and metropolitan rich.

Take into account with London constituency bets.

CarlottaVance said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far.

A Labour MP has attacked his own party leader for an “unforgivably unprofessional” campaign and not knowing his own cost of living after Thursday’s local and European elections.

Graham Stringer MP said the Labour party had not performed as well as it should have, both in terms of policies and organisation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10850921/Ed-Miliband-led-an-unforgivably-unprofessional-campaign-Labour-MP-says.html

Graham Stringer is my favourite Labour MP.

A man unafraid to speak his mind and who often talks good sense.

Don't expect him to be listened to by the Labour leadership.

Scott_P said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far.

@AndrewSparrow: John Curtice says Labour doing worse than 2 years ago - http://t.co/xjNrb1fI4U

And that's not a surprise - every round of council elections compares the result in one set of councils with results in another set of councils. Labour winning more seats is good. Labour having a slap in the face where one party rule has created arrogance (like Rotherham) is also good as it gets the party to pay attention before it comes to a Westminster vote.

As for the GE I noted with amusement the various eminent psephologist luminaries quoted giving a projection of seats then admitting their model doesn't work for UKIP. Well then its not a valid model - UKIP are here, they aren't going away,their voters are their voters. But there are plenty of marginal seats where a rise in UKIP does the Tories and helps us. That is why UKIPs strong night is good for Labour.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.

Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.

Thank you.

I read a very touching story last week. It was about this lovely old Swedish lady who had voted solely Folkpartiet (Liberal Democrat) during the last 80 years. Now, aged 102, she has decided for the first time in her life to vote for a different poilitical party (in her case for the Feminist Initiative, who look highly likely to get an MEP; even my wife who normally votes Con or Lib is voting for them as are several female friends).

Irrespective of the party, it is encumbent on us all to seriously think about our vote, each and every time we cast it. I for one hope that I do not remain an SNP member all my life. In fact, I even have a date for when I intend to send in my resignation letter: independence day.

I hope to do the same thing with UKIP on the day we withdraw from the EU.

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?

So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.

I think Labour exceeded expectations in Merton.

Enfield looks lost to the Conservatives forever as well.

Sean_F said:

Oliver_PB said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?

So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.

I believe the poster is suggesting that a big increase in the UKIP vote represents, in itself, a good night for Labour.

Labour have lost fewer seats to UKIP than the Conservatives have, but they've still lost a substantial number.

Sure, but you could see it as being positive in the context of Westminster if you think UKIP are more likely to be a spoiler.

As I've said, Labour have done poorly but I don't think it's a bad result in the run-up to the general.

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_P said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far.

@AndrewSparrow: John Curtice says Labour doing worse than 2 years ago - http://t.co/xjNrb1fI4U

And that's not a surprise - every round of council elections compares the result in one set of councils with results in another set of councils. Labour winning more seats is good. Labour having a slap in the face where one party rule has created arrogance (like Rotherham) is also good as it gets the party to pay attention before it comes to a Westminster vote.

As for the GE I noted with amusement the various eminent psephologist luminaries quoted giving a projection of seats then admitting their model doesn't work for UKIP. Well then its not a valid model - UKIP are here, they aren't going away,their voters are their voters. But there are plenty of marginal seats where a rise in UKIP does the Tories and helps us. That is why UKIPs strong night is good for Labour.

I am rather hoping that these results will be the wake-up call Labour needs. They must start to take on UKIP, and put an end to the kind of complacent thinking that your post exemplifies.

It’s all been London news for the past couple of hours, which puts a nice spin on things, but the truth is that it has not been a good night. Not by a long stretch – Conor Pope

http://labourlist.org/2014/05/european-and-local-elections-liveblog-2014/

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?

So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.

I think Labour exceeded expectations in Merton.

Enfield looks lost to the Conservatives forever as well.

Merton seems like low-hanging fruit to me (subject to looking at the details). Edmonton, and East Enfield are pretty much like Tottenham, now.