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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

0430 seat totals at @guardian http://t.co/LCb9tPkDZs
LAB 915
CON 712
LD 153
UKIP 87

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What's happening in London ?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Castlepoint has a service called 'coping with change'. It must be a work in progress.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    old_labour said:

    Castlepoint has a service called 'coping with change'. It must be a work in progress.

    Don't worry, I'm sure UKIP will cut it.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Eastleigh final figures LD 13 seats Con 2 a clean sweep in the Eastleigh wards
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @AndyJS
    I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:

    Birmingham popular votes:

    Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
    Con 55,011 (23.19%)
    LD 37,214 (15.69%)
    UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
    Green 7,638 (3.22%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +5.59%
    Con -4.34%
    LD -8.37%
    UKIP +12.85%
    Green +0.66%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

    The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Any reason why Peterborough's UKIP councillors are listed as independents by the BBC?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/councils/E06000031
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Sandwell popular votes:

    Lab 41,031 (58.45%)
    UKIP 14,868 (21.18%)
    Con 10,841 (15.44%)
    Green 2,263 (3.22%)
    LD 1,044 (1.49%)
    TUSC 150 (0.21%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +11.03%
    UKIP + 21.18%
    Con -12.43%
    Green +2.14
    LD -9.05%
    BNP -11.53 (didn't contest any seats this time)

    Labour doing very well in an area where they having absolutely nothing to gain in general election terms.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    Birmingham popular votes:

    Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
    Con 55,011 (23.19%)
    LD 37,214 (15.69%)
    UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
    Green 7,638 (3.22%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +5.59%
    Con -4.34%
    LD -8.37%
    UKIP +12.85%
    Green +0.66%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

    The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

    Sometimes headlines can be misleading.

    Birmingham was avery good result for Labour in 2010. The local elections were fought with a general election turnout.

    The swing from Tory to Labour is 5%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Initially, it was all UKIP. But once London votes start to come in, the Labour gains will rack up.
    Labour even gained 6 councillors in Wandsworth. Best result since 1990 !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour has gained two full wards, North End and Fulham Broadway, from the Tories in the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham.

    - BBC
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

    LD 10728 45.53
    Lab 6862 29.12
    UKIP 3450 14.64
    Con 1260 5.35
    Grn 708 3.00
    TUSC 372 1.58
    SDP 98 0.42
    Ind 86 0.36
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    old_labour said:

    @AndyJS
    I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.

    RobD found it at the end of the previous thread. But they do make them very difficult to find sometimes.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Yes, keep talking about "Eastleigh".

    FFS does anyone normal know where "Eastleigh" is?

    A fantastic night for Ukip, no getting round it. A bad night for Tories and LDs, but a terrible night for Labour - inasmuch as this drubbing in their heartlands was never predicted, whereas we expected the Coalition to suffer.

    But who did worst of all? Probably the legacy media, the newspapers, who went after Ukip with a vengeance and yet with zero effect. Or maybe my Telegraph article on UKIP was so seminal it counteracted all the hysterical bollox.

    Fun night. Roll on Sunday.

    So, UKIP is out of contention from it's only likely GE seat. Maybe one or two may emerge from the Tories in Mondeo country.

  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    If the loss of a few councillors in Labour heartlands turns UKIP into a credible fourth party then it will have been a good nights work for them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AndyJS said:

    old_labour said:

    @AndyJS
    I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.

    RobD found it at the end of the previous thread. But they do make them very difficult to find sometimes.
    Tell me about it!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Oliver_PB said:

    If the loss of a few councillors in Labour heartlands turns UKIP into a credible fourth party then it will have been a good nights work for them.

    Are UKIP lovers saying they will win Rotherham in GE2015 ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

    LD 10728 45.53
    Lab 6862 29.12
    UKIP 3450 14.64
    Con 1260 5.35
    Grn 708 3.00
    TUSC 372 1.58
    SDP 98 0.42
    Ind 86 0.36

    That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour gain six councillors in Hammersmith and Fulham so far. 6 in Wandsworth too !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I can't post the Gosport results because this page is missing data for one ward, Bridgemary South. Maybe there's another page with the information:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/gosport-borough-council-election-results-1-6076992?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

    LD 10728 45.53
    Lab 6862 29.12
    UKIP 3450 14.64
    Con 1260 5.35
    Grn 708 3.00
    TUSC 372 1.58
    SDP 98 0.42
    Ind 86 0.36

    That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

    Yellows defending very well where it matters. Let's see what happens in my borough !
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

    Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarkSenior said:

    Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

    Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community

    Do you have a link to the detailed results?
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

    Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

    LD 10728 45.53
    Lab 6862 29.12
    UKIP 3450 14.64
    Con 1260 5.35
    Grn 708 3.00
    TUSC 372 1.58
    SDP 98 0.42
    Ind 86 0.36

    That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

    Yellows defending very well where it matters. Let's see what happens in my borough !
    The main problem for Labour in B'ham Yardley was the Sheldon ward:

    LD 2750
    UKIP 1262
    Lab 850
    Con 338
    TUSC 80
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2014
    BBC
    Labour claims it hit has won Hammersmith and Fulham. To be confirmed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    A very good early morning (for me)
    So what happened to the famous late Green surge everyone was commenting on?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    old_labour said:

    BBC
    Labour claims it hit has won Hammersmith and Fulham. To be confirmed.

    If true, a monumental victory ! All those council tax cuts and council house sales - for nothing !
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    Looks like London is becoming another country.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Looks like London is becoming another country.

    London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

    Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

    Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

    UKIP 1.11
    Lab 4.3
    Con 30
    LD 330
    Grn 1000

    Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour gains catching up on the kippers.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    A very good early morning (for me)
    So what happened to the famous late Green surge everyone was commenting on?

    Perhaps London will deliver that?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AndyJS said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

    Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community

    Do you have a link to the detailed results?
    You have to download a CSV from here: http://opendata.brentwood.gov.uk/
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Looking a lot better for LAB on the In Play Euros Most Seats market (104,779):

    UKIP 1.38
    Lab 1.61
    Con 75
    Grn 1000
    LD 1000

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    surbiton said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Looks like London is becoming another country.

    London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

    As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Betfair - Next UK GE - Most Seats (267,463 pounds matched)

    Lab 1.95
    Con 2.06
    LD 470
    Any other 95
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.

    There's quite an active UKIP organisation in Basingstoke. They didn't get a result last year, perhaps another 12 months was what they needed?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    surbiton said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Looks like London is becoming another country.

    London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

    As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.
    I love it! Southam and Surbiton hugging London with all their might.
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    Very big result for Labour in Hammersmith & Fulham. London might just save Ed's bacon sandwich.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
    The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Now back to bed. :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

    Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

    Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

    UKIP 1.11
    Lab 4.3
    Con 30
    LD 330
    Grn 1000

    Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.
    Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    LAB drifting again in Newark by-election market. Best prices:

    Con 1/3 (Coral)
    UKIP 4/1 (various)
    Lab 9/1 (Betfair)
    LD 250/1 (various)
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
    The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

    Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm going to add Gosport to the totals even though one ward hasn't been reported. It's been declared but they haven't put the result up.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Slackbladder said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

    Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

    Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

    UKIP 1.11
    Lab 4.3
    Con 30
    LD 330
    Grn 1000

    Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.
    Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.
    But how many got the timing just right? Very, very few I suspect. Not that many will fess up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AndyJS said:

    I'm going to add Gosport to the totals even though one ward hasn't been reported. It's been declared but they haven't put the result up.

    Where are the Gosport results, I couldn't find those. And what was the final declaration?
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    BBC
    Labour takes control of Cambridge.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.

    There's quite an active UKIP organisation in Basingstoke. They didn't get a result last year, perhaps another 12 months was what they needed?
    That can't be right. Avery told me that Basingstoke was under a thousand year Tory reich and that no matter how many Maria Millers the CONS would forever reign supreme there.

    Please tell me that Avery is not an idiot.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
    The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

    Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

    But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

    The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

    Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

    Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

    UKIP 1.11
    Lab 4.3
    Con 30
    LD 330
    Grn 1000

    Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.
    Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.
    But how many got the timing just right? Very, very few I suspect. Not that many will fess up.
    Lets just say im happy with my position.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    old_labour said:

    BBC
    Labour takes control of Cambridge.

    PONWAS
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

    No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    old_labour said:

    BBC
    Labour takes control of Cambridge.

    Does Cambridge count as part of East Anglia ?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    surbiton said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
    The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

    Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

    But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

    The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.
    If a second Lib-Con coalition starts to look likely then it is gonna be fun and games on the IndyRef market as an awful lot of folk try to limit their losses.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    surbiton said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    Looks like London is becoming another country.

    London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

    As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.

    Most of London is getting poorer.
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    surbiton said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    AndyJS said:

    Eastleigh popular votes:

    LD 13,298 (42.75%)
    UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
    Con 6,415 (20.62%)
    Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
    Ind 106 (0.34%)
    TUSC 86 (0.28%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -8.57%
    UKIP +21.30%
    Con -14.31%
    Lab +1.11%

    That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

    "Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

    LD 39%
    UKIP 27%
    CON 23%
    LAB 9%"

    http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

    So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.
    Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .
    The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

    Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

    But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

    The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.

    Not sure of the aftermath, but hung Parliament definitely on the cards.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    London spreadsheet, just started entering Hammersmith & Fulham figures:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE#gid=0
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Is there a turnout figure?
  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    MrJones said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

    No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

    That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It is, according to Wikipedia.
    surbiton said:

    old_labour said:

    BBC
    Labour takes control of Cambridge.

    Does Cambridge count as part of East Anglia ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Current popular vote in Hammersmith & Fulham with 6 wards still to come:

    Lab 41.83%
    Con 40.15%
    LD 9.99%
    Green 4.59%
    UKIP 2.55%

    In 2010 the Tories led by 8.91%.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

    No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

    That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

    The Survation Eastleigh poll predicted a lot of split votes. UKIP for Westminster, LD for council.

    We may see that picture when the EU Parliament votes come out (if they are broken down by Westminster seats).

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

    No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

    That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

    That would depend on whether the local vs general turnout differential for LDs is less than most other voter segments.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    Birmingham popular votes:

    Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
    Con 55,011 (23.19%)
    LD 37,214 (15.69%)
    UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
    Green 7,638 (3.22%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +5.59%
    Con -4.34%
    LD -8.37%
    UKIP +12.85%
    Green +0.66%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

    The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

  • SouthamObserver1SouthamObserver1 Posts: 37
    MrJones said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    SouthamObserver1 said:

    MrJones said:

    If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

    Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

    No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

    That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

    That would depend on whether the local vs general turnout differential for LDs is less than most other voter segments.

    Yes, I was talking more generally. Eastleigh might be a special case.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain Avonmouth by 16 votes over Labour:

    http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=9
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    Birmingham popular votes:

    Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
    Con 55,011 (23.19%)
    LD 37,214 (15.69%)
    UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
    Green 7,638 (3.22%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +5.59%
    Con -4.34%
    LD -8.37%
    UKIP +12.85%
    Green +0.66%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

    The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

    From the numbers AndyJS posted, it looks like UKIP took their votes from Conservatives and LDs, which are the same groups they've done best with in the past.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited May 2014
    I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

    I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election, though. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general. I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think this was an extremely favourable situation for UKIP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP were 25 votes from winning Kingsweston in Bristol from the LDs.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Oliver_PB said:

    I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

    I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

    Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

    The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited May 2014
    anotherDave said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

    I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

    Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

    The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

    Sure, but I believe making UKIP more electable will hurt the Tories more than Labour, so that represents a net positive for Labour.

    UKIP is not a threat in safe Labour seats and in marginals the LD->Lab and Con->UKIP switchers are likely to outnumber the Lab->UKIP switchers.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

    I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

    Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Good couple of gains for the Tories in Birmingham.

    I scrolled through the posts on here and I could see lots of councils with the Labour vote declining. They might pick up a few seats but I wonder what the projected vote will be
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour beat the LDs by 7 votes in Windmill Hill, Bristol:

    http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=12
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

    I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

    Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

    Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    UKIP gain 2 councillors from IND in Hartlepool (no other changes)

    UKIP lose 1 councillor to IND in South Tyneside (no other changes)

    LAB lose 1 councillor to IND in Sunderland (no other changes)

    If the other North-Eastern results are similar (North Tyneside, Newcastle, Gateshead) we might ask if UKIP are gaining traction in the North-East. Of course, they'll likely gain a Euro seat but people are more willing to shop around in the Euros.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    There are going to be more UKIP councillors, but that does not always lead to further support. A lot will be unexpected winners, who lack enthusism for the daily grind.

    UKIP records in defending seats gained last year in by council by elections are not good.
    anotherDave said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

    I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

    Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

    The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    AndyJS said:

    Labour beat the LDs by 7 votes in Windmill Hill, Bristol:

    http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=12

    Wow at that swing away from the Lib Dems.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Oliver_PB said:

    anotherDave said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

    I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

    Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

    The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

    Sure, but I believe making UKIP more electable will hurt the Tories more than Labour, so that represents a net positive for Labour.

    UKIP is not a threat in safe Labour seats and in marginals the LD->Lab and Con->UKIP switchers are likely to outnumber the Lab->UKIP switchers.
    It may be out of date now, but Survation did produce a graph suggesting that UKIP hurt the Conservatives more, up to x% of the vote, and then started to hurt Labour more.

    http://survation.com/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/

    Analysis of this year's locals and EU results will no doubt tell us more.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Freggles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?
    How do you stop them voting for any other party? And why would you? So long as BNP members are banned from UKIP membership then exactly how do you think they will be able to 'change the party' as Fox claims?
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    A crude look at big samples such as Birmingham and Fulham indicates a 4-5% swing to Labour, pretty much what the polls are saying. A year away from an election, surely that's not good for Labour. Remember at this point in 2009 they were 17 points down in yougov polls. They now they are neck and neck.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bristol popular votes:

    Lab 21,644 (28.55%)
    Con 17,942 (23.67%)
    LD 12,848 (16.95%)
    Green 11,781 (15.54%)
    UKIP 8,874 (11.71%)
    TUSC 1,579 (2.08%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +1.76%
    Con -3.55%
    LD -17.33%
    Green +7.60%
    UKIP +11.71%
    TUSC +2.08%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 2.66%
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Take your tinfoil hat off!

    The world is always changing, as are parties.

    But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

    I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

    Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

    Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    AndyJS said:

    Bristol popular votes:

    Lab 21,644 (28.55%)
    Con 17,942 (23.67%)
    LD 12,848 (16.95%)
    Green 11,781 (15.54%)
    UKIP 8,874 (11.71%)
    TUSC 1,579 (2.08%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +1.76%
    Con -3.55%
    LD -17.33%
    Green +7.60%
    UKIP +11.71%
    TUSC +2.08%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 2.66%

    Expect Labour to campaign aggressively in Bristol West and Bristol North West.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Take your tinfoil hat off!

    The world is always changing, as are parties.

    But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

    I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

    Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

    Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.
    All voters are moving away from the LDs.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Freggles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?
    How do you stop them voting for any other party? And why would you? So long as BNP members are banned from UKIP membership then exactly how do you think they will be able to 'change the party' as Fox claims?
    Fair enough, though I would argue as UKIP has grown to include more of the white van man vote, they've become less libertarian and more traditionalist - parties modulate their message to improve their appeal.

    But I do think Farage is not a racist and there are lines he won't cross.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Take your tinfoil hat off!

    The world is always changing, as are parties.

    But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

    Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Take your tinfoil hat off!

    The world is always changing, as are parties.

    But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

    I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

    Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

    Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.
    Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

    Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.
    The BNP would never have got those votes in the first place if the political class hadn't ignored thousands of working class children being forced into prostitution.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Hammersmith & Fulham, popular votes (using top vote):

    Lab 22,025 (42.25%)
    Con 19,763 (37.91%)
    LD 4,585 (8.79%)
    Green 3,249 (6.23%)
    UKIP 1,926 (3.69%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +8.26%
    Con -4.99%
    LD -11.82%
    Green +4.35%
    UKIP +3.45%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 6.63%
  • AndypetAndypet Posts: 36
    Professor Curtice on Today saying Ukip on about 25%, which is the same as last year. Labour 3% up on 2010 but considerably down on 2012 when similar seats were fought.
This discussion has been closed.