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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

0430 seat totals at @guardian http://t.co/LCb9tPkDZs
LAB 915
CON 712
LD 153
UKIP 87

Read the full story here

surbiton

What's happening in London ?

old_labour

Castlepoint has a service called 'coping with change'. It must be a work in progress.

Oliver_PB

old_labour said:

Castlepoint has a service called 'coping with change'. It must be a work in progress.

Don't worry, I'm sure UKIP will cut it.

MarkSenior

Eastleigh final figures LD 13 seats Con 2 a clean sweep in the Eastleigh wards

old_labour

@AndyJS
I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.

AndyJS

FPT:

Birmingham popular votes:

Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
Con 55,011 (23.19%)
LD 37,214 (15.69%)
UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
Green 7,638 (3.22%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +5.59%
Con -4.34%
LD -8.37%
UKIP +12.85%
Green +0.66%

Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

RobD

Any reason why Peterborough's UKIP councillors are listed as independents by the BBC?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/councils/E06000031

AndyJS

Sandwell popular votes:

Lab 41,031 (58.45%)
UKIP 14,868 (21.18%)
Con 10,841 (15.44%)
Green 2,263 (3.22%)
LD 1,044 (1.49%)
TUSC 150 (0.21%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +11.03%
UKIP + 21.18%
Con -12.43%
Green +2.14
LD -9.05%
BNP -11.53 (didn't contest any seats this time)

Labour doing very well in an area where they having absolutely nothing to gain in general election terms.

surbiton

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Birmingham popular votes:

Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
Con 55,011 (23.19%)
LD 37,214 (15.69%)
UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
Green 7,638 (3.22%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +5.59%
Con -4.34%
LD -8.37%
UKIP +12.85%
Green +0.66%

Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

Sometimes headlines can be misleading.

Birmingham was avery good result for Labour in 2010. The local elections were fought with a general election turnout.

The swing from Tory to Labour is 5%.

surbiton

Initially, it was all UKIP. But once London votes start to come in, the Labour gains will rack up.
Labour even gained 6 councillors in Wandsworth. Best result since 1990 !

surbiton

Labour has gained two full wards, North End and Fulham Broadway, from the Tories in the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham.

- BBC

AndyJS

Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

LD 10728 45.53
Lab 6862 29.12
UKIP 3450 14.64
Con 1260 5.35
Grn 708 3.00
TUSC 372 1.58
SDP 98 0.42
Ind 86 0.36

AndyJS

old_labour said:

@AndyJS
I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.

RobD found it at the end of the previous thread. But they do make them very difficult to find sometimes.

surbiton

SeanT said:

Yes, keep talking about "Eastleigh".

FFS does anyone normal know where "Eastleigh" is?

A fantastic night for Ukip, no getting round it. A bad night for Tories and LDs, but a terrible night for Labour - inasmuch as this drubbing in their heartlands was never predicted, whereas we expected the Coalition to suffer.

But who did worst of all? Probably the legacy media, the newspapers, who went after Ukip with a vengeance and yet with zero effect. Or maybe my Telegraph article on UKIP was so seminal it counteracted all the hysterical bollox.

Fun night. Roll on Sunday.

So, UKIP is out of contention from it's only likely GE seat. Maybe one or two may emerge from the Tories in Mondeo country.

Oliver_PB

If the loss of a few councillors in Labour heartlands turns UKIP into a credible fourth party then it will have been a good nights work for them.

RobD

AndyJS said:

old_labour said:

@AndyJS
I can find nothing on the Castlepoint web site about this year's election results.

RobD found it at the end of the previous thread. But they do make them very difficult to find sometimes.

Tell me about it!

surbiton

Oliver_PB said:

If the loss of a few councillors in Labour heartlands turns UKIP into a credible fourth party then it will have been a good nights work for them.

Are UKIP lovers saying they will win Rotherham in GE2015 ?

MikeSmithson

AndyJS said:

Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

LD 10728 45.53
Lab 6862 29.12
UKIP 3450 14.64
Con 1260 5.35
Grn 708 3.00
TUSC 372 1.58
SDP 98 0.42
Ind 86 0.36

That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

AndyJS

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

surbiton

Labour gain six councillors in Hammersmith and Fulham so far. 6 in Wandsworth too !

AndyJS

I can't post the Gosport results because this page is missing data for one ward, Bridgemary South. Maybe there's another page with the information:

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/gosport-borough-council-election-results-1-6076992?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it

surbiton

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

LD 10728 45.53
Lab 6862 29.12
UKIP 3450 14.64
Con 1260 5.35
Grn 708 3.00
TUSC 372 1.58
SDP 98 0.42
Ind 86 0.36

That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

Yellows defending very well where it matters. Let's see what happens in my borough !

MarkSenior

Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community

AndyJS

MarkSenior said:

Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community

Do you have a link to the detailed results?

SouthamObserver1

Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

AndyJS

surbiton said:

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

Labour will be disappointed with the votes cast in their target from the LDs of Birmingham Yardley:

LD 10728 45.53
Lab 6862 29.12
UKIP 3450 14.64
Con 1260 5.35
Grn 708 3.00
TUSC 372 1.58
SDP 98 0.42
Ind 86 0.36

That is truly dreadful for Labour. LD seats should be easy pickings Thanks for the data once again AndyJS

Yellows defending very well where it matters. Let's see what happens in my borough !

The main problem for Labour in B'ham Yardley was the Sheldon ward:

LD 2750
UKIP 1262
Lab 850
Con 338
TUSC 80

old_labour

BBC
Labour claims it hit has won Hammersmith and Fulham. To be confirmed.

MikeK

A very good early morning (for me)
So what happened to the famous late Green surge everyone was commenting on?

AndyJS

On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.

surbiton

old_labour said:

BBC
Labour claims it hit has won Hammersmith and Fulham. To be confirmed.

If true, a monumental victory ! All those council tax cuts and council house sales - for nothing !

SouthamObserver1

Looks like London is becoming another country.

anotherDave

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

surbiton

SouthamObserver1 said:

Looks like London is becoming another country.

London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

Stuart_Dickson

SouthamObserver1 said:

Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

UKIP 1.11
Lab 4.3
Con 30
LD 330
Grn 1000

Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.

surbiton

Labour gains catching up on the kippers.

anotherDave

MikeK said:

A very good early morning (for me)
So what happened to the famous late Green surge everyone was commenting on?

Perhaps London will deliver that?

RobD

AndyJS said:

MarkSenior said:

Brentwood final figures Con 6 wards LD 5 wards Lab 1 ward Community 1 ward

Con lose 2 to LD , 1 to Lab and 1 to Community

Do you have a link to the detailed results?

You have to download a CSV from here: http://opendata.brentwood.gov.uk/

Stuart_Dickson

Looking a lot better for LAB on the In Play Euros Most Seats market (104,779):

UKIP 1.38
Lab 1.61
Con 75
Grn 1000
LD 1000

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

SouthamObserver1

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Looks like London is becoming another country.

London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.

Stuart_Dickson

Betfair - Next UK GE - Most Seats (267,463 pounds matched)

Lab 1.95
Con 2.06
LD 470
Any other 95

anotherDave

AndyJS said:

On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.

There's quite an active UKIP organisation in Basingstoke. They didn't get a result last year, perhaps another 12 months was what they needed?

MikeK

SouthamObserver1 said:

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Looks like London is becoming another country.

London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.

I love it! Southam and Surbiton hugging London with all their might.

SouthamObserver1

Very big result for Labour in Hammersmith & Fulham. London might just save Ed's bacon sandwich.

surbiton

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

MikeK

Now back to bed.

Slackbladder

Stuart_Dickson said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

UKIP 1.11
Lab 4.3
Con 30
LD 330
Grn 1000

Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.

Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.

Stuart_Dickson

LAB drifting again in Newark by-election market. Best prices:

Con 1/3 (Coral)
UKIP 4/1 (various)
Lab 9/1 (Betfair)
LD 250/1 (various)

SouthamObserver1

surbiton said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

MrJones

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

AndyJS

I'm going to add Gosport to the totals even though one ward hasn't been reported. It's been declared but they haven't put the result up.

Stuart_Dickson

Slackbladder said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

UKIP 1.11
Lab 4.3
Con 30
LD 330
Grn 1000

Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.

Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.

But how many got the timing just right? Very, very few I suspect. Not that many will fess up.

RobD

AndyJS said:

I'm going to add Gosport to the totals even though one ward hasn't been reported. It's been declared but they haven't put the result up.

Where are the Gosport results, I couldn't find those. And what was the final declaration?

SouthamObserver1

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

old_labour

BBC
Labour takes control of Cambridge.

Stuart_Dickson

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

On the face of it the Tories appear to be having a bad night in Basingstoke & Deane, winning just 4 of 15 wards declared so far, although maybe their best areas aren't up for election this year. But still this is usually a good area for them generally speaking.

There's quite an active UKIP organisation in Basingstoke. They didn't get a result last year, perhaps another 12 months was what they needed?

That can't be right. Avery told me that Basingstoke was under a thousand year Tory reich and that no matter how many Maria Millers the CONS would forever reign supreme there.

Please tell me that Avery is not an idiot.

surbiton

SouthamObserver1 said:

surbiton said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.

Slackbladder

Stuart_Dickson said:

Slackbladder said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Great night for UKIP. Looks like they'll run away with the Euros.

Still looks like a Hung Parliament after GE2015.

Yepp. Betfair's latest In Play prices - Euros Most Votes (102,134 matched)

UKIP 1.11
Lab 4.3
Con 30
LD 330
Grn 1000

Looks like all those CON bets at long prices was money down the drain after all.

Not if you used those bets to trade out, which the smart people (cough) would have done.

But how many got the timing just right? Very, very few I suspect. Not that many will fess up.

Lets just say im happy with my position.

Stuart_Dickson

old_labour said:

BBC
Labour takes control of Cambridge.

PONWAS

MrJones

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

surbiton

old_labour said:

BBC
Labour takes control of Cambridge.

Does Cambridge count as part of East Anglia ?

Stuart_Dickson

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

surbiton said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.

If a second Lib-Con coalition starts to look likely then it is gonna be fun and games on the IndyRef market as an awful lot of folk try to limit their losses.

MrJones

SouthamObserver1 said:

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

Looks like London is becoming another country.

London is the heartbeat of Britain. A great place to live in.

As London becomes ever-more successful, so it pulls away from the rest of England. Ironically, given what the SNP says about the place, in being to the left of the rest of the south of England resembles Scotland.

Most of London is getting poorer.

SouthamObserver1

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

surbiton said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

AndyJS said:

Eastleigh popular votes:

LD 13,298 (42.75%)
UKIP 8,015 (25.77%)
Con 6,415 (20.62%)
Lab 3,187 (10.25%)
Ind 106 (0.34%)
TUSC 86 (0.28%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

LD -8.57%
UKIP +21.30%
Con -14.31%
Lab +1.11%

That's in line with the Survation Eastleigh poll.

"Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%
UKIP 27%
CON 23%
LAB 9%"

http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

So UKIP _are_ still on track to win the Westminster seat.

Nope , the BC results includes 4 wards in the Winchester Parliamentary seat .

The kippers lost badly in Eastleigh. Unless immigration is an issue, they are nowhere.

Not sure that's right. Immigration's not a huge issue in Sunderland and a lot of the other northern Labour heartlands where UKIP is doing well.

But Labout is highly unlikely to lose any of the heartland seats. But majority unlikely.

The election is looking hung, CON-LD coalition could ciontinue.

Not sure of the aftermath, but hung Parliament definitely on the cards.

AndyJS

London spreadsheet, just started entering Hammersmith & Fulham figures:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE#gid=0

anotherDave

Is there a turnout figure?

SouthamObserver1

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

old_labour

It is, according to Wikipedia.

surbiton said:

old_labour said:

BBC
Labour takes control of Cambridge.

Does Cambridge count as part of East Anglia ?

AndyJS

Current popular vote in Hammersmith & Fulham with 6 wards still to come:

Lab 41.83%
Con 40.15%
LD 9.99%
Green 4.59%
UKIP 2.55%

In 2010 the Tories led by 8.91%.

anotherDave

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

The Survation Eastleigh poll predicted a lot of split votes. UKIP for Westminster, LD for council.

We may see that picture when the EU Parliament votes come out (if they are broken down by Westminster seats).

MrJones

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

That would depend on whether the local vs general turnout differential for LDs is less than most other voter segments.

foxinsoxuk

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Birmingham popular votes:

Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
Con 55,011 (23.19%)
LD 37,214 (15.69%)
UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
Green 7,638 (3.22%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +5.59%
Con -4.34%
LD -8.37%
UKIP +12.85%
Green +0.66%

Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

SouthamObserver1

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

SouthamObserver1 said:

MrJones said:

If Ukip are gaining a lot wwc votes then they'll have the same issue with differential turnout between local and GE. Worth bearing in mind.

Yes - it wasn't UKIP voters staying at home yesterday.

No, you missed the point. There'll be more Ukip votes in Eastleigh at the GE.

That's possible. But there'll also be more LD ones. Across the country - outside London - UKIP voters seem to have been disproportionately motivated to vote. It's no surprise - it's what the polls predicted. When turnouts go up next year, it will probably effect UKIP adversely too.

That would depend on whether the local vs general turnout differential for LDs is less than most other voter segments.

Yes, I was talking more generally. Eastleigh might be a special case.

AndyJS

Tories gain Avonmouth by 16 votes over Labour:

http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=9

anotherDave

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Birmingham popular votes:

Lab 100,726 (42.47%)
Con 55,011 (23.19%)
LD 37,214 (15.69%)
UKIP 32,215 (13.58%)
Green 7,638 (3.22%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +5.59%
Con -4.34%
LD -8.37%
UKIP +12.85%
Green +0.66%

Swing, Con to Lab: 4.97%

The BNP collapsed from 20,578 votes in 2010 to 292 this time.

From the numbers AndyJS posted, it looks like UKIP took their votes from Conservatives and LDs, which are the same groups they've done best with in the past.

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Oliver_PB

I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election, though. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general. I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think this was an extremely favourable situation for UKIP.

AndyJS

UKIP were 25 votes from winning Kingsweston in Bristol from the LDs.

anotherDave

Oliver_PB said:

I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

Oliver_PB

anotherDave said:

Oliver_PB said:

I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

Sure, but I believe making UKIP more electable will hurt the Tories more than Labour, so that represents a net positive for Labour.

UKIP is not a threat in safe Labour seats and in marginals the LD->Lab and Con->UKIP switchers are likely to outnumber the Lab->UKIP switchers.

foxinsoxuk

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Millsy

Good couple of gains for the Tories in Birmingham.

I scrolled through the posts on here and I could see lots of councils with the Labour vote declining. They might pick up a few seats but I wonder what the projected vote will be

AndyJS

Labour beat the LDs by 7 votes in Windmill Hill, Bristol:

http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=12

Freggles

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.

Freggles

UKIP gain 2 councillors from IND in Hartlepool (no other changes)

UKIP lose 1 councillor to IND in South Tyneside (no other changes)

LAB lose 1 councillor to IND in Sunderland (no other changes)

If the other North-Eastern results are similar (North Tyneside, Newcastle, Gateshead) we might ask if UKIP are gaining traction in the North-East. Of course, they'll likely gain a Euro seat but people are more willing to shop around in the Euros.

foxinsoxuk

There are going to be more UKIP councillors, but that does not always lead to further support. A lot will be unexpected winners, who lack enthusism for the daily grind.

UKIP records in defending seats gained last year in by council by elections are not good.

anotherDave said:

Oliver_PB said:

I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

Oliver_PB

AndyJS said:

Labour beat the LDs by 7 votes in Windmill Hill, Bristol:

http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionWard=true&ElectionId=68&WardId=12

Wow at that swing away from the Lib Dems.

anotherDave

Oliver_PB said:

anotherDave said:

Oliver_PB said:

I still go with what I said early in the night: poor for Labour, bad for the Tories (and Lib Dems obviously), and great for UKIP.

I don't think these results are a bad sign for Labour at the next general election. UKIP picking up a few councillors in areas with safe Labour seats won't have any significant effect at the general election. In general, I don't think local and European elections are favourable cirumstances for Labour voter turnout, whereas I think they are extremely favourable circumstances for UKIP.

Sure, but if UKIP leave the locals and EU elections with momentum, they could increase their vote share again next year.

The more UKIP candidates that get elected, the more electable UKIP candidates become.

Sure, but I believe making UKIP more electable will hurt the Tories more than Labour, so that represents a net positive for Labour.

UKIP is not a threat in safe Labour seats and in marginals the LD->Lab and Con->UKIP switchers are likely to outnumber the Lab->UKIP switchers.

It may be out of date now, but Survation did produce a graph suggesting that UKIP hurt the Conservatives more, up to x% of the vote, and then started to hurt Labour more.

http://survation.com/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/

Analysis of this year's locals and EU results will no doubt tell us more.

Richard_Tyndall

Freggles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?

How do you stop them voting for any other party? And why would you? So long as BNP members are banned from UKIP membership then exactly how do you think they will be able to 'change the party' as Fox claims?

woody662

A crude look at big samples such as Birmingham and Fulham indicates a 4-5% swing to Labour, pretty much what the polls are saying. A year away from an election, surely that's not good for Labour. Remember at this point in 2009 they were 17 points down in yougov polls. They now they are neck and neck.

AndyJS

Bristol popular votes:

Lab 21,644 (28.55%)
Con 17,942 (23.67%)
LD 12,848 (16.95%)
Green 11,781 (15.54%)
UKIP 8,874 (11.71%)
TUSC 1,579 (2.08%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +1.76%
Con -3.55%
LD -17.33%
Green +7.60%
UKIP +11.71%
TUSC +2.08%

Swing, Con to Lab: 2.66%

foxinsoxuk

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.

Oliver_PB

AndyJS said:

Bristol popular votes:

Lab 21,644 (28.55%)
Con 17,942 (23.67%)
LD 12,848 (16.95%)
Green 11,781 (15.54%)
UKIP 8,874 (11.71%)
TUSC 1,579 (2.08%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +1.76%
Con -3.55%
LD -17.33%
Green +7.60%
UKIP +11.71%
TUSC +2.08%

Swing, Con to Lab: 2.66%

Expect Labour to campaign aggressively in Bristol West and Bristol North West.

anotherDave

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.

All voters are moving away from the LDs.

Freggles

Richard_Tyndall said:

Freggles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

What a politician's answer! Foxy was talking about voters, not membership. How do you stop former BNP voters voting UKIP?

How do you stop them voting for any other party? And why would you? So long as BNP members are banned from UKIP membership then exactly how do you think they will be able to 'change the party' as Fox claims?

Fair enough, though I would argue as UKIP has grown to include more of the white van man vote, they've become less libertarian and more traditionalist - parties modulate their message to improve their appeal.

But I do think Farage is not a racist and there are lines he won't cross.

Richard_Tyndall

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.

MrJones

foxinsoxuk said:

Take your tinfoil hat off!

The world is always changing, as are parties.

But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I was saying that I hope the kippers do not inherit the BNP mentality! hardly a smear!

I know BNP members are not allowed in UKIP, but former voters are.

Where other than UKIP have these 20 000 BNP votes gone? BNP got 8%+ in the last Euros, probably Will get around 1% this year.

Richard_Tyndall said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Looks like all the BNP voters have gone kipper. Lets hope that does not change the party too much too much.

Amazing. Even now still trying the smears and fear mongering. Just to repeat, UKIP is the only party that actively bans former BNP members from membership. The BNP will not have any effect on UKIP.

Of course it is a smear. It is a classic 'are you thinking what I am thinking' comment.

Of course it is exactly what we should expect given that the coalition supporters still haven't grasped that the world is changing and you are utterly unequipped to deal with it.

The BNP would never have got those votes in the first place if the political class hadn't ignored thousands of working class children being forced into prostitution.

AndyJS

Hammersmith & Fulham, popular votes (using top vote):

Lab 22,025 (42.25%)
Con 19,763 (37.91%)
LD 4,585 (8.79%)
Green 3,249 (6.23%)
UKIP 1,926 (3.69%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +8.26%
Con -4.99%
LD -11.82%
Green +4.35%
UKIP +3.45%

Swing, Con to Lab: 6.63%

Andypet

Professor Curtice on Today saying Ukip on about 25%, which is the same as last year. Labour 3% up on 2010 but considerably down on 2012 when similar seats were fought.