Labour has done really well in London because it has been focusing on seats here. UKIP rising in places like Sunderland is just the anti Labour vote finding a clear home,
Don't listen to these PB Tory cheerleaders, PB Reds. Everything is looking good for Ed in 15.
Rafael Behr@rafaelbehr·49 secs @sundersays and rightly so. Governing parties can recover from local election hammering. Oppositions need to show momentum.
Sunder Katwala@sundersays·3 mins Most Conservatives inclined to keep calm and not panic about Ukip. (Better national polls; Newark byelection). Labour seem rather wobblier
Am I the only one finding the results so far somewhat confusing?
High council tax seems to have hurt the yellows in Richmond but low council tax has hurt the Tories in Hammersmith. Eh?
Labour make some advances like Cambridge but are having their core vote nibbled by UKIP. Is this a class based or regional story emerging?
Dave losing some in the locals but not seeing a swing away that should cause worry for the GE. Should he be happy or nervous this morning?
LD overall vote a disaster but actually doing quite well at retaining many specific councils. Clegg relief or despair?
Either the Euro results aren’t out yet or everyone is obsessing on the Locals. Would someone please put me out of my ignorance.
So…what the hell have we learned about the likely GE outcome? Is a hung parliament with Dave still PM the most likely? Any sensible PB’ers who can see the wood for the trees?
If Labour had hopes of a majority in 2015, they should have been taking Swindon?
OK one more, Dougie seems to think they did....
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·2 mins Oops. Douglas Alexander: Lab 'made gains in Swindon' + Tory MP shd 'be worried’. But Tories increased seats, Lab didn't #CurseOfSwindon
Am I the only one finding the results so far somewhat confusing?
Yup, having four players and only seeing the results of FPTP contests makes it quite hard to read, because you get all kinds of seats changing hands based on the way the opposition vote splits. Hopefully it'll be easier to read when we get some vote share numbers to help compare what's happening now to what happened last time.
You have my sympathy. These are local election results based on parts of England and Northern Ireland, the opportunities for bullcrap are endless. (several on here have indicated different local/EU votes which complicates the matter further)
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
Scotland’s universities are being prevented from going public with their “grave concerns” about independence because they rely on SNP ministers for their funding, according to an extraordinary letter signed by some of the world’s most eminent medical academics....
...The Nationalists have claimed that Scotland would continue to receive a disproportionately large amount of UK Research Council grants after separation but this was rejected by the letter’s signatories, who are based at Scotland’s five universities with medical schools.
That you won't obey EU law on Uni fees, or rUK will fund foreign universities?
Yawn, I thought yesterday we were not going to be in the EU, make up your minds. You might think that even Tories would realise that constantly giving conflicting positions would possibly make people think that you are lying toads of the first order , purely interested in self preservation and not the least interested in Scotland other than to milk it of all its cash and resources. Dave will be occupied soon trying to have a coalition with Nigel, I wish him well.
It does seem that Milibandism plays a lot better in London than in the Midlands and North. We will see on Sunday whether it plays well in Scotland, Wales and English Shires. I expect not.
Are the Euro counts taking place before Sunday, or does the count only start at 2200 on the 25th?
Labour has done really well in London because it has been focusing on seats here. UKIP rising in places like Sunderland is just the anti Labour vote finding a clear home,
You have my sympathy. These are local election results based on parts of England and Northern Ireland, the opportunities for bullcrap are endless. (several on here have indicated different local/EU votes which complicates the matter further)
Am I the only one finding the results so far somewhat confusing?
High council tax seems to have hurt the yellows in Richmond but low council tax has hurt the Tories in Hammersmith. Eh?
Labour make some advances like Cambridge but are having their core vote nibbled by UKIP. Is this a class based or regional story emerging?
Dave losing some in the locals but not seeing a swing away that should cause worry for the GE. Should he be happy or nervous this morning?
LD overall vote a disaster but actually doing quite well at retaining many specific councils. Clegg relief or despair?
Either the Euro results aren’t out yet or everyone is obsessing on the Locals. Would someone please put me out of my ignorance.
So…what the hell have we learned about the likely GE outcome? Is a hung parliament with Dave still PM the most likely? Any sensible PB’ers who can see the wood for the trees?
Labour doing well with well-educated, working people in places like London and Cambridge.
Everyone was up since 2012. Labour actually got a 5% swing to them and won both parliamentary seats. It just looks like the Tories better distributed their votes in seats. To be fair that looks like the Tories just outworked the marginal council seats.
Am I the only one finding the results so far somewhat confusing?
High council tax seems to have hurt the yellows in Richmond but low council tax has hurt the Tories in Hammersmith. Eh?
Labour make some advances like Cambridge but are having their core vote nibbled by UKIP. Is this a class based or regional story emerging?
Dave losing some in the locals but not seeing a swing away that should cause worry for the GE. Should he be happy or nervous this morning?
LD overall vote a disaster but actually doing quite well at retaining many specific councils. Clegg relief or despair?
Either the Euro results aren’t out yet or everyone is obsessing on the Locals. Would someone please put me out of my ignorance.
So…what the hell have we learned about the likely GE outcome? Is a hung parliament with Dave still PM the most likely? Any sensible PB’ers who can see the wood for the trees?
The country's balkanizing except for the upper middle class who exist in a little world of their own.
But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...
Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
LOL, Tories complain that democratically elected government is not implementing opposition policies but unashamedly putting their own policies forward. What can we expect next from Tory clowns, will Dave be implementing Ed's great ideas.
I suspect if Coalition MPs suppressed a minority report critical of the government you'd be among the first to complain......
LOL, where is the poll we paid £50K for with public money not to mention the thousands of reports and enquiries that are hushed up , hidden etc constantly by the rogues in London. Get a grip , your sanctimonious whinging is pathetic to see. We get that you hate the SNP and Scotland but it is like a broken record now.
Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.
Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.
Thank you.
I read a very touching story last week. It was about this lovely old Swedish lady who had voted solely Folkpartiet (Liberal Democrat) during the last 80 years. Now, aged 102, she has decided for the first time in her life to vote for a different poilitical party (in her case for the Feminist Initiative, who look highly likely to get an MEP; even my wife who normally votes Con or Lib is voting for them as are several female friends).
Irrespective of the party, it is encumbent on us all to seriously think about our vote, each and every time we cast it. I for one hope that I do not remain an SNP member all my life. In fact, I even have a date for when I intend to send in my resignation letter: independence day.
Don't mention it.
Can I ask you something? In hindsight, is there anything different the Uk government could have done that might have led to you not supporting independence for Scotland from it?
So one year from the General Election, it looks like something over a quarter of the voters have effectively gone off and formed themselves a new opposition party.
That is the magnitude of the failure of Ed Miliband's Labour Party.
You have my sympathy. These are local election results based on parts of England and Northern Ireland, the opportunities for bullcrap are endless. (several on here have indicated different local/EU votes which complicates the matter further)
If Labour had hopes of a majority in 2015, they should have been taking Swindon?
OK one more, Dougie seems to think they did....
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·2 mins Oops. Douglas Alexander: Lab 'made gains in Swindon' + Tory MP shd 'be worried’. But Tories increased seats, Lab didn't #CurseOfSwindon
Dougie is not too good on elections, he does not have much grip on reality.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
Scotland’s universities are being prevented from going public with their “grave concerns” about independence because they rely on SNP ministers for their funding, according to an extraordinary letter signed by some of the world’s most eminent medical academics....
...The Nationalists have claimed that Scotland would continue to receive a disproportionately large amount of UK Research Council grants after separation but this was rejected by the letter’s signatories, who are based at Scotland’s five universities with medical schools.
Just glanced at Sky News for the numbers before walking the hound. Was mildly surprised (with around 1/3 of the results in, I think) the Conservatives and Lib Dems weren't doing worse, and UKIP were doing so well. At the time, they'd made more gains than Labour.
What if the Rotherham results are repeated in Doncaster ? Would be rather embarrassing for a certain Doncaster MP.
Where we would get the resulting photostunt:
EdM eating a bacon sarnie at Doncaster market ? EdM playing pool in a Doncaster miners welfare ? EdM giving a speech in a Doncaster factory ? EdM looking at prices in a Doncaster supermarket ?
Who is laying UKIP Most Votes at Betfair at 1.3 ? Is it still possible that LAB could come out top on Sunday?
My own suspicion is this, in a lot of the country, both the locals and European election ballot papers went into the same ballot box.
Overnight, when the papers were being separated, some people have made a guesstimate on the actual result as they glanced as the European ballot papers.
You have my sympathy. These are local election results based on parts of England and Northern Ireland, the opportunities for bullcrap are endless. (several on here have indicated different local/EU votes which complicates the matter further)
Am I the only one finding the results so far somewhat confusing?
High council tax seems to have hurt the yellows in Richmond but low council tax has hurt the Tories in Hammersmith. Eh?
Labour make some advances like Cambridge but are having their core vote nibbled by UKIP. Is this a class based or regional story emerging?
Dave losing some in the locals but not seeing a swing away that should cause worry for the GE. Should he be happy or nervous this morning?
LD overall vote a disaster but actually doing quite well at retaining many specific councils. Clegg relief or despair?
Either the Euro results aren’t out yet or everyone is obsessing on the Locals. Would someone please put me out of my ignorance.
So…what the hell have we learned about the likely GE outcome? Is a hung parliament with Dave still PM the most likely? Any sensible PB’ers who can see the wood for the trees?
Labour doing well with well-educated, working people in places like London and Cambridge.
I'm loving the Labour complacency this morning - the reference to 'well-educated' people voting Labour especially symbolic of the arrogant approach shown by the London luvvies.
What if the Rotherham results are repeated in Doncaster ? Would be rather embarrassing for a certain Doncaster MP.
Where we would get the resulting photostunt:
EdM eating a bacon sarnie at Doncaster market ? EdM playing pool in a Doncaster miners welfare ? EdM giving a speech in a Doncaster factory ? EdM looking at prices in a Doncaster supermarket ?
What if the Rotherham results are repeated in Doncaster ? Would be rather embarrassing for a certain Doncaster MP.
Where we would get the resulting photostunt:
EdM eating a bacon sarnie at Doncaster market ? EdM playing pool in a Doncaster miners welfare ? EdM giving a speech in a Doncaster factory ? EdM looking at prices in a Doncaster supermarket ?
There doesn't appear to have been much Miliband campaigning in Doncaster.
Just glanced at Sky News for the numbers before walking the hound. Was mildly surprised (with around 1/3 of the results in, I think) the Conservatives and Lib Dems weren't doing worse, and UKIP were doing so well. At the time, they'd made more gains than Labour.
Think the Tories are actually doing worse than projections...
But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...
Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
LOL, Tories complain that democratically elected government is not implementing opposition policies but unashamedly putting their own policies forward. What can we expect next from Tory clowns, will Dave be implementing Ed's great ideas.
I suspect if Coalition MPs suppressed a minority report critical of the government you'd be among the first to complain......
LOL, where is the poll we paid £50K for with public money
At least that poll exists, unlike the SNP's mythical legal advice on EU membership........
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares? 2) when do we get the next batch of results? 3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares? 2) when do we get the next batch of results? 3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
I believe the next batch should be around lunchtime.
Labour has had a disastrous local election night for three very simple reasons. The first is that four years into the parliament Labour has utterly failed to establish itself as a credible government in its own right. In fact, it hasn’t even tried. It’s simply attempted to claim a vote for Labour was a way of protesting against the nasty, evil, posh, out-of touch Tories and their Lib Dem quislings. And so the voters have said, “Well, if it’s all about casting a protest vote, I’m going with the experts. Hello Mr Farage.”
The second reason is Ed Miliband. Ed Miliband has not had a bad campaign. He’s had Ed Miliband’s campaign. This is who Ed Miliband is, and what he does. He loses elections for the Labour party. If there are people in Labour’s ranks still clinging to the fiction their leader will somehow “come good”, or “confound his critics”, fine. But they have to stop expecting the British voters to buy into it.
But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...
Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
LOL, Tories complain that democratically elected government is not implementing opposition policies but unashamedly putting their own policies forward. What can we expect next from Tory clowns, will Dave be implementing Ed's great ideas.
I suspect if Coalition MPs suppressed a minority report critical of the government you'd be among the first to complain......
We get that you hate the SNP and Scotland but it is like a broken record now.
And we get that you think the SNP is synonymous with Scotland and hate Scots who don't......
Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.
Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.
Thank you.
I read a very touching story last week. It was about this lovely old Swedish lady who had voted solely Folkpartiet (Liberal Democrat) during the last 80 years. Now, aged 102, she has decided for the first time in her life to vote for a different poilitical party (in her case for the Feminist Initiative, who look highly likely to get an MEP; even my wife who normally votes Con or Lib is voting for them as are several female friends).
Irrespective of the party, it is encumbent on us all to seriously think about our vote, each and every time we cast it. I for one hope that I do not remain an SNP member all my life. In fact, I even have a date for when I intend to send in my resignation letter: independence day.
Don't mention it.
Can I ask you something? In hindsight, is there anything different the Uk government could have done that might have led to you not supporting independence for Scotland from it?
No.
But there were an awful lot of things post-war UK governments could have done that would have prevented Scottish independence even getting on the agenda. That it has come to pass that fewer than 50% of Scots want to remain a member of the UK is truly astonishing. There were always going to be Scots like me who would back our country's sovereignty come hell or high water, but we are perhaps only 20-25% of the population. At least as many again are currently backing independence, and that is due almost entirely to appalling mistakes by the UK government and Whitehall, rather than anything the SNP has ever done.
The SNP's key asset is that we are competent. In stark contrast to our Unionist opponents.
A good night for Labour so far. A big swing to UKIP does the Tories far more damage than us, and demolishes the notion of a UNS. As for the LibDems, their only question is do they move to remove Clegg this summer, or do they want to keep being sliced in twain by their angry ex voters?
So far, the only good results (ie above expectations) for Labour I can see are Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey, and Cambridge.
I think Labour exceeded expectations in Merton.
Enfield looks lost to the Conservatives forever as well.
Merton seems like low-hanging fruit to me (subject to looking at the details). Edmonton, and East Enfield are pretty much like Tottenham, now.
Merton was always a likely Labour gain but Labour still did better than expected there. Enfield North constituency looks extremely vulnerable now.
The Conservatives are finished in London's metroland and that's not going to change no matter how many millionaire bankers live in central London.
If the Conservatives are ever to get an overall majority they now need to look much further north for gains.
Their problem is that in the North they're losing middle class voters to UKIP as fast as Labour are losing wwc voters to them.
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares? 2) when do we get the next batch of results? 3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.
Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.
Thank you.
I read a very touching story last week. It was about this lovely old Swedish lady who had voted solely Folkpartiet (Liberal Democrat) during the last 80 years. Now, aged 102, she has decided for the first time in her life to vote for a different poilitical party (in her case for the Feminist Initiative, who look highly likely to get an MEP; even my wife who normally votes Con or Lib is voting for them as are several female friends).
Irrespective of the party, it is encumbent on us all to seriously think about our vote, each and every time we cast it. I for one hope that I do not remain an SNP member all my life. In fact, I even have a date for when I intend to send in my resignation letter: independence day.
Don't mention it.
Can I ask you something? In hindsight, is there anything different the Uk government could have done that might have led to you not supporting independence for Scotland from it?
No.
But there were an awful lot of things post-war UK governments could have done that would have prevented Scottish independence even getting on the agenda. That it has come to pass that fewer than 50% of Scots want to remain a member of the UK is truly astonishing. There were always going to be Scots like me who would back our country's sovereignty come hell or high water, but we are perhaps only 20-25% of the population. At least as many again are currently backing independence, and that is due almost entirely to appalling mistakes by the UK government and Whitehall, rather than anything the SNP has ever done.
The SNP's key asset is that we are competent. In stark contrast to our Unionist opponents.
Thanks Stuart. Do you have a view on what type of things post WWII governments could have done? More devolution earlier? More consultation on Scottish opinion before legislating?
I'm geniunely interested. There may be some parallels with what's happening now with UKIP, and I'm curious to explore those.
But those BNP voters have gone somewhere; and I do not think it is to the LibDems. Will it alter the development of UKIP? We shall see...
Get ready for extinction. You are a dinosaur and your world is disappearing fast - and about time too. All you have left is fear and smear and, as you may have noticed after yesterday, it won't work any more.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
LOL, Tories complain that democratically elected government is not implementing opposition policies but unashamedly putting their own policies forward. What can we expect next from Tory clowns, will Dave be implementing Ed's great ideas.
I suspect if Coalition MPs suppressed a minority report critical of the government you'd be among the first to complain......
We get that you hate the SNP and Scotland but it is like a broken record now.
And we get that you think the SNP is synonymous with Scotland and hate Scots who don't......
One day you will realise that this is not about the SNP. But by then it will be too late.
Long live the Unionist Don Quixotes, tilting at the SNP windmill.
Stuart Dickson: I am a huge unionist. I love Britain and the UK. However, you posted something last night that made me think. I now feel I do understand how Scots may have felt during the Thatcher/Major years.
Even I today am feeling slightly distant and alienated from London. And I live in the south-east, and work there. It feels like a different world, and governs us all in so many ways. Ever so slightly arrogantly and contemptuously.
Thank you.
I read a very touching story last week. It was about this lovely old Swedish lady who had voted solely Folkpartiet (Liberal Democrat) during the last 80 years. Now, aged 102, she has decided for the first time in her life to vote for a different poilitical party (in her case for the Feminist Initiative, who look highly likely to get an MEP; even my wife who normally votes Con or Lib is voting for them as are several female friends).
Irrespective of the party, it is encumbent on us all to seriously think about our vote, each and every time we cast it. I for one hope that I do not remain an SNP member all my life. In fact, I even have a date for when I intend to send in my resignation letter: independence day.
Don't mention it.
Can I ask you something? In hindsight, is there anything different the Uk government could have done that might have led to you not supporting independence for Scotland from it?
No.
But there were an awful lot of things post-war UK governments could have done that would have prevented Scottish independence even getting on the agenda. That it has come to pass that fewer than 50% of Scots want to remain a member of the UK is truly astonishing. There were always going to be Scots like me who would back our country's sovereignty come hell or high water, but we are perhaps only 20-25% of the population. At least as many again are currently backing independence, and that is due almost entirely to appalling mistakes by the UK government and Whitehall, rather than anything the SNP has ever done.
The SNP's key asset is that we are competent. In stark contrast to our Unionist opponents.
Thanks Stuart. Do you have a view on what type of things post WWII governments could have done? More devolution earlier? More consultation on Scottish opinion before legislating?
I'm geniunely interested. There may be some parallels with what's happening now with UKIP, and I'm curious to explore those.
I have an appointment in 56 minutes and I really need to get my stuff together and get going. I will reply ASAP.
Given recent bad press re Green Deputy Mayor, had hoped that they would lose not win anything. Noticed that the ward further away from University area don't vote Green in significant numbers. UKIP results generally weak.
Ah. I now see that the Euro results will only be counted on Sunday. (Why the delay? Scared we'll influence France or some such nonsense?).
FWIW I think the Locals will reflect, shock horror, local level vagaries. The Euro results will show the direction of travel overall for the national level polling. The hard bit will be twofold: 1. Working out what Euro polling moves impoly for GE voting intention likely changes (ie UKIP won't get 30% in the GE so what will happen to their vote? etc); and 2. Modelling seat implications in a solid 4 party world.
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
In 2005 we saw a similar result and nothing happened.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I predict that in the days and weeks to come Labour turmoil will replace Ukip surge as the running story at Westminster, with terrible consequences for Mr Miliband. With no sign of any trouble for Dave worth pursuing, the pack will shift its attention to Labour, which faces a torrid summer.
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
In 2005 we saw a similar result and nothing happened.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I think the anger may be more about the UKIP vote and the lack of MPs rather than the Tories outpolling Labour but not winning.
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
In 2005 we saw a similar result and nothing happened.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I think the anger may be more about the UKIP vote and the lack of MPs rather than the Tories outpolling Labour but not winning.
What happened to David Cameron’s angry men? At one time there were constant predictions that these backbenchers would be organising themselves to beat up the Prime Minister the minute Sunday’s European election results were released. But it doesn’t seem to be happening.
Mr. Eagles, a strong response from England in such a scenario would be further provoked by Miliband's promise to give away more fiscal power to Scotland. Devolution as is is simply unsustainable.
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares? 2) when do we get the next batch of results? 3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
I predict that in the days and weeks to come Labour turmoil will replace Ukip surge as the running story at Westminster, with terrible consequences for Mr Miliband. With no sign of any trouble for Dave worth pursuing, the pack will shift its attention to Labour, which faces a torrid summer.
You are probably right. The irony is that the Blairites who did most to alienate Labour's natural supporters will be leading the charge.
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
In 2005 we saw a similar result and nothing happened.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I think the anger may be more about the UKIP vote and the lack of MPs rather than the Tories outpolling Labour but not winning.
That would be very inequitable
The Tories support FPTP and have to live with what it produces. They can't complain about inequitable results. UKIP can and should - very loudly.
One would hope so. It would be a disastrous result for the country. Labour would have power, but not legitimacy - a very dangerous combination.
How would it be any less legitimate than the Tory victories after the SDP split?
It wouldn’t, but that was then.We’ve had more discussion of “better/alternative” systems since then. Furthermore the Mail and Telegraph’s favourite party ..... or should that be parties now ...... would be left holding the mucky end of the stick!
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares? 2) when do we get the next batch of results? 3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
Combine a four party system with FPTP and 32%/33% of vote could well produce an overall Commons majority for Labour. That's ridiculous.
If that does happen, do you think Labour would engage in electoral reform?
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
Sadly, i think you may be right. But it won't be a sustainable position. On these results, though, it looks like a hung Parliament is just about nailed on. I can see another PR referendum coming and UKIP campaigning very aggressively for change.
In 2005 we saw a similar result and nothing happened.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I think the anger may be more about the UKIP vote and the lack of MPs rather than the Tories outpolling Labour but not winning.
That would be very inequitable
The Tories support FPTP and have to live with what it produces. They can't complain about inequitable results. UKIP can and should - very loudly.
I'm a Tory in favour of Electoral reform, I wish he had more of a choice than AV in 2011.
Such as Multi-Member STV or a directly elected dictator.
One would hope so. It would be a disastrous result for the country. Labour would have power, but not legitimacy - a very dangerous combination.
How would it be any less legitimate than the Tory victories after the SDP split?
It wouldn’t, but that was then.We’ve had more discussion of “better/alternative” systems since then. Furthermore the Mail and Telegraph’s favourite party ..... or should that be parties now ...... would be left holding the mucky end of the stick!
The Tories aren't going to change their support of FPTP and Labour obviously aren't going to buy into the Tories' self-interested attempts to change the border rules.
The only way to solve the status quo is if Conservatives back away from FPTP but that would probably require several successive electoral losses.
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
Scotland’s universities are being prevented from going public with their “grave concerns” about independence because they rely on SNP ministers for their funding, according to an extraordinary letter signed by some of the world’s most eminent medical academics....
...The Nationalists have claimed that Scotland would continue to receive a disproportionately large amount of UK Research Council grants after separation but this was rejected by the letter’s signatories, who are based at Scotland’s five universities with medical schools.
That you won't obey EU law on Uni fees, or rUK will fund foreign universities?
Yawn, I thought yesterday we were not going to be in the EU, make up your minds.
Well, we'll never know will we because the SNP MSPs have suppressed the minority report critical of the SNP government......
......welcome to the Brave New Scotland.....
7 years now and Labour still cannot accept that they are not running Scotland and people like you sit down south and lap up manure from the Torygraph. It is bullshit , you should stop consuming it.
One would hope so. It would be a disastrous result for the country. Labour would have power, but not legitimacy - a very dangerous combination.
How would it be any less legitimate than the Tory victories after the SDP split?
Which was a period that saw growing social divisions, including inner city riots and the miners' strike. I would worry about a GE in which 15-20% of the people voted (largely through a sense of alienation) for UKIP and then found they had no (or barely any) representation at Westminster.
"Labour doing well with well-educated, working people in places like London and Cambridge.
I'm loving the Labour complacency this morning - the reference to 'well-educated' people voting Labour especially symbolic of the arrogant approach shown by the London luvvies."
Yes - the repellent idea that there are no well educated working people outside London - FFS!
Meanwhile, its 'business as usual' in Scotland (I'd missed that Salmond blithely assumes that rUK tax payers will carry on funding Scottish University research post-separation):
Scotland’s universities are being prevented from going public with their “grave concerns” about independence because they rely on SNP ministers for their funding, according to an extraordinary letter signed by some of the world’s most eminent medical academics....
...The Nationalists have claimed that Scotland would continue to receive a disproportionately large amount of UK Research Council grants after separation but this was rejected by the letter’s signatories, who are based at Scotland’s five universities with medical schools.
That you won't obey EU law on Uni fees, or rUK will fund foreign universities?
Yawn, I thought yesterday we were not going to be in the EU, make up your minds.
Well, we'll never know will we because the SNP MSPs have suppressed the minority report critical of the SNP government......
......welcome to the Brave New Scotland.....
7 years now and Labour still cannot accept that they are not running Scotland and people like you sit down south and lap up manure from the Torygraph. It is bullshit , you should stop consuming it.
So you support the suppression of a minority report critical of the SNP government, but piss & moan when one of very many opinion polls is not published?
Mr Eagles, that's the thing about locals. So many results any party can point to something and say it's good news.
I remember many Labour folk telling me, even when Boris won, that London was a Labour city, so Labour are only doing well, where they are already strong.
Interesting , so Lennon must be going elsewhere then. Doubt it will be Spurs but cannot see him wanting to go to Brighton. Any other open positions in higher English leagues.
Mr Eagles, that's the thing about locals. So many results any party can point to something and say it's good news.
I remember many Labour folk telling me, even when Boris won, that London was a Labour city, so Labour are only doing well, where they are already strong.
I don't think it's been said yet, but for me one of the things the London results confirm is that Boris will not attempt to seek re-election as mayor and will head back to Westminster.
Interesting , so Lennon must be going elsewhere then. Doubt it will be Spurs but cannot see him wanting to go to Brighton. Any other open positions in higher English leagues.
West Brom seems logical. I was expecting a managerial merry go round, expecting Sam Allardyce to be sacked, but West Ham have told him he's staying.
But I was expecting Malky Mackay to get either the Norwich or West Ham jobs, so it'll be a fight between those two when any other job comes up?
One would hope so. It would be a disastrous result for the country. Labour would have power, but not legitimacy - a very dangerous combination.
How would it be any less legitimate than the Tory victories after the SDP split?
It wouldn’t, but that was then.We’ve had more discussion of “better/alternative” systems since then. Furthermore the Mail and Telegraph’s favourite party ..... or should that be parties now ...... would be left holding the mucky end of the stick!
The Tories aren't going to change their support of FPTP and Labour obviously aren't going to buy into the Tories' self-interested attempts to change the border rules.
The only way to solve the status quo is if Conservatives back away from FPTP but that would probably require several successive electoral losses.
One good thing about traditional Tories; they’re pragmatic. If it looks like a good idea they’ll adopt it. And as I said, theTory Press wouldn’t necessarily take the same view as the Party itself, which in any case isn’t united in favour of FPTP, although the website CAER used to have seems to have vanished.
Mr Eagles, that's the thing about locals. So many results any party can point to something and say it's good news.
I remember many Labour folk telling me, even when Boris won, that London was a Labour city, so Labour are only doing well, where they are already strong.
I don't think it's been said yet, but for me one of the things the London results confirm is that Boris will not attempt to seek re-election as mayor and will head back to Westminster.
I was thinking that too, and wondering if it means he can stand as a London MP in 2015 without any problems further down the line.
Much as last year this is very simply bad news for all the big 3. Labour are looking really unconvincing (though strength in London is good), the Tories are losing loads of councils and councillors, and the Lib Dems are being battered everywhere they don't run and even a bit where they do. UKIP aren't just winning seats, they're winning clumps of seats.
For GE2015? Labour really need to do better, but tonight generally makes it harder to predict.
Comments
Rafael Behr@rafaelbehr·49 secs
@sundersays and rightly so. Governing parties can recover from local election hammering. Oppositions need to show momentum.
Sunder Katwala@sundersays·3 mins
Most Conservatives inclined to keep calm and not panic about Ukip. (Better national polls; Newark byelection). Labour seem rather wobblier
If Labour had hopes of a majority in 2015, they should have been taking Swindon?
Long weekend more like?
High council tax seems to have hurt the yellows in Richmond but low council tax has hurt the Tories in Hammersmith. Eh?
Labour make some advances like Cambridge but are having their core vote nibbled by UKIP. Is this a class based or regional story emerging?
Dave losing some in the locals but not seeing a swing away that should cause worry for the GE. Should he be happy or nervous this morning?
LD overall vote a disaster but actually doing quite well at retaining many specific councils. Clegg relief or despair?
Either the Euro results aren’t out yet or everyone is obsessing on the Locals. Would someone please put me out of my ignorance.
So…what the hell have we learned about the likely GE outcome? Is a hung parliament with Dave still PM the most likely? Any sensible PB’ers who can see the wood for the trees?
Harry Cole@MrHarryCole·2 mins
Ed claimed he was 're-gaining ground' in 2012 when Labour won Thurrock. Last night he lost it again.
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Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·2 mins
Oops. Douglas Alexander: Lab 'made gains in Swindon' + Tory MP shd 'be worried’. But Tories increased seats, Lab didn't #CurseOfSwindon
http://democracy.merton.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=28&RPID=500337382
You have my sympathy.
These are local election results based on parts of England and Northern Ireland, the opportunities for bullcrap are endless. (several on here have indicated different local/EU votes which complicates the matter further)
Dave will be occupied soon trying to have a coalition with Nigel, I wish him well.
Are the Euro counts taking place before Sunday, or does the count only start at 2200 on the 25th?
"UKIP - The only truly national party?"
Everyone was up since 2012. Labour actually got a 5% swing to them and won both parliamentary seats. It just looks like the Tories better distributed their votes in seats. To be fair that looks like the Tories just outworked the marginal council seats.
We get that you hate the SNP and Scotland but it is like a broken record now.
Can I ask you something? In hindsight, is there anything different the Uk government could have done that might have led to you not supporting independence for Scotland from it?
That is the magnitude of the failure of Ed Miliband's Labour Party.
......welcome to the Brave New Scotland.....
Just glanced at Sky News for the numbers before walking the hound. Was mildly surprised (with around 1/3 of the results in, I think) the Conservatives and Lib Dems weren't doing worse, and UKIP were doing so well. At the time, they'd made more gains than Labour.
What if the Rotherham results are repeated in Doncaster ? Would be rather embarrassing for a certain Doncaster MP.
Where we would get the resulting photostunt:
EdM eating a bacon sarnie at Doncaster market ?
EdM playing pool in a Doncaster miners welfare ?
EdM giving a speech in a Doncaster factory ?
EdM looking at prices in a Doncaster supermarket ?
Overnight, when the papers were being separated, some people have made a guesstimate on the actual result as they glanced as the European ballot papers.
Sutton, popular vote:
LD 25,572 (36.46%)
Con 17,905 (25.53%)
UKIP 12,962 (18.48%)
Lab 8,642 (12.32%)
Green 2,831 (4.04%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
LD -9.85%
Con -9.69%
UKIP +15.89%
Lab +2.02%
http://order-order.com/2014/05/22/all-quiet-on-the-doncaster-front/
1) has anyone yet made any kind of estimate of notional national vote shares?
2) when do we get the next batch of results?
3) is there any electoral event that isn't at some deep level about Scotland?
Where is timmo ?
But there were an awful lot of things post-war UK governments could have done that would have prevented Scottish independence even getting on the agenda. That it has come to pass that fewer than 50% of Scots want to remain a member of the UK is truly astonishing. There were always going to be Scots like me who would back our country's sovereignty come hell or high water, but we are perhaps only 20-25% of the population. At least as many again are currently backing independence, and that is due almost entirely to appalling mistakes by the UK government and Whitehall, rather than anything the SNP has ever done.
The SNP's key asset is that we are competent. In stark contrast to our Unionist opponents.
The Conservatives are finished in London's metroland and that's not going to change no matter how many millionaire bankers live in central London.
If the Conservatives are ever to get an overall majority they now need to look much further north for gains.
Their problem is that in the North they're losing middle class voters to UKIP as fast as Labour are losing wwc voters to them.
2) The most important one is at 3pm, Sheffield, here's a list of the expected times for all councils, http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/local_2014_by_time.php
3) Hehe
You can tell me shove off somewhere where the sun doesn't shine (Suffolk?) but how did you end up voting in the Euros?
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/mike-hancock-beaten-in-portsmouth-election-as-lib-dems-lose-control-of-city-1-6077063
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/portsmouth-city-council-election-results-1-6076990
I'm geniunely interested. There may be some parallels with what's happening now with UKIP, and I'm curious to explore those.
Long live the Unionist Don Quixotes, tilting at the SNP windmill.
I can see many in Labour thinking, nah, the current system favours us, why change it?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFRlQ250bWgzS2JQZDRxcjVfa0lOdmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
Also here:
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/gosport-borough-council-election-results-1-6076992?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
http://www.bristol247.com/2014/05/23/bristol-local-elections-2014-the-results-in-full-33118/
Given recent bad press re Green Deputy Mayor, had hoped that they would lose not win anything. Noticed that the ward further away from University area don't vote Green in significant numbers. UKIP results generally weak.
Local rag describes count process as shambolic.
FWIW I think the Locals will reflect, shock horror, local level vagaries. The Euro results will show the direction of travel overall for the national level polling. The hard bit will be twofold:
1. Working out what Euro polling moves impoly for GE voting intention likely changes (ie UKIP won't get 30% in the GE so what will happen to their vote? etc); and
2. Modelling seat implications in a solid 4 party world.
You have achieved lifetime membership of the political geek club.
That said, if 2015, like in 2005, Labour win a majority in the UK, but a plurality of England voted Tory, then I do suspect we will see more of a response from England.
I predict that in the days and weeks to come Labour turmoil will replace Ukip surge as the running story at Westminster, with terrible consequences for Mr Miliband. With no sign of any trouble for Dave worth pursuing, the pack will shift its attention to Labour, which faces a torrid summer.
Con 7,547 (33.36%)
Lab 6,654 (29.41%)
UKIP 4,444 (19.64%)
Green 2,441 (10.79%)
LD 964 (4.26%)
BNP 492 (2.17%)
TUSC 84 (0.37%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Con -8.40%
Lab -4.24%
UKIP +19.64%
Green -0.03%
LD -4.98%
BNP -2.35%
Swing, Con to Lab: 2.08%
What happened to David Cameron’s angry men? At one time there were constant predictions that these backbenchers would be organising themselves to beat up the Prime Minister the minute Sunday’s European election results were released. But it doesn’t seem to be happening.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10849666/The-Tories-12-angry-men-have-beaten-an-embarrassed-retreat.html
You do realise splitting Green and Yellow, are the colours of Norwich?
Such as Multi-Member STV or a directly elected dictator.
The only way to solve the status quo is if Conservatives back away from FPTP but that would probably require several successive electoral losses.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27530377
"Labour doing well with well-educated, working people in places like London and Cambridge.
I'm loving the Labour complacency this morning - the reference to 'well-educated' people voting Labour especially symbolic of the arrogant approach shown by the London luvvies."
Yes - the repellent idea that there are no well educated working people outside London - FFS!
Labour take Redbridge for the first time ever. London the only real glimmer of good news for Miliband.
Welcome to the Brave New SNPland.....
The Greens appear to be the dog that didn't bark this time around.....
Gareth Davies @Gareth_Davies09 42m
Tory leader Mike Fisher tells @croydonad: "Labour hasn't won Croydon, the Ukip vote has denied us control"
Labour 1.95/1.96
Tory 2.06/2.14
Labour were about 1.82 yesterday
But I was expecting Malky Mackay to get either the Norwich or West Ham jobs, so it'll be a fight between those two when any other job comes up?
Maybe Southampton if their boss goes to Spurs?
Lab 40,006 (42.41%)
Con 25,082 (26.59%)
Green 10,889 (11.54%)
UKIP 10,430 (11.06%)
LD 2,633 (2.79%)
Ind 1,911 (2.03%)
BNP 1,477 (1.57%)
TUSC 1,176 (1.25%)
Patients Not Profit 735 (0.78%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +7.75%
Con -7.70%
Green +1.94%
UKIP +8.97%
LD -13.57%
And as I said, theTory Press wouldn’t necessarily take the same view as the Party itself, which in any case isn’t united in favour of FPTP, although the website CAER used to have seems to have vanished.
For GE2015? Labour really need to do better, but tonight generally makes it harder to predict.