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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    "Boris won London with a lot of help from Crosby"

    More realistically. Boris won London with a lot of help from Ken. I believe I am right in saying that in the London Assembly on the same day as the last mayoral election Labour won most seats.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    isam said:

    MikeK said:
    C'est incredible!
    I hope you don't speak French on trains.

    But if you do, "incroyable" works quite well.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Sky News reporting about Farge in Thurrock

    "He was mobbed when he got there, I heard someone say 'I havent seen anything like this since Elvis was here.. ' there were two grown men crying saying 'Thank you Thank you Mr Farage' "

    When was Elvis in Thurrock?! Elvis Costello??!!

    Think I got the value w 16/1 though, and I think 6/1 is still value.

    Prob about 9/4 in my book
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Fire at Glasgow School of Art - BBC coverage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-27541883
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    It remains a fact that despite UKIP's successes in the locals in these seats Labour will have 10x more councillors, the tories more than 7 times and even the Lib Dems 2.5x. And they will not control a single council. Impressive but a long way to go.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Gateshead all results in Lab 18 seats Lib Dems 4 seats no gains or loses
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014

    Bugger, a real cultural blow to Glasgow.

    Thankfully the word is no-one is hurt.

    I suspect that was because the occupants were able to use the back of the chairs as exit ladders.

    But this is no time for jokes. A truly irreplacable loss for Glasgow and all if the building and its contents are lost.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Labour have already passed their target of 150 gains.

    Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.

    But well short of what the independent experts suggest they should be doing;

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments


    Quite. Transparently poor spinning from Labour.
    Worth bringing OGH's tweet forward to this thread:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals

    CON -160
    LAB +500
    LD - 340
    Ukip ???

    9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014
    And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.

    Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.

    RP

    Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.

    There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.

    And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.

    Not a triumph, not a disaster. Steady as she goes. A hung parliament in 2015, Labour most seats very possible. UKIP emerging as the main opposition to Labour in many parts of the north, but not winning seats. But Ed is certainly a drag on the Labour vote.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ishmael_X said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:
    C'est incredible!
    I hope you don't speak French on trains.

    But if you do, "incroyable" works quite well.



    I was on the train yesterday going to Fenchurch St from Upminster, on the quiet coach, where phones have to be switched off and converssations are supposed to be hushed. Two African women got on at Barking and were more or less shouting at each other in conversation.

    An old bloke pulled them up and pointed out this was the quiet coach. I must say I couldnt help instinctively feeling he only said it because they were black and spoke in a strange accent. My old lefty spite rearing its ugly head? He may well have said the same to white loudmouths I dont know.

    I was glad they shut up though, was doing my head in.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    SeanT said:

    Despite the UKIP surge, odds on indyref are drifting towards NO.

    e.g. Paddypower now have NO at 1/4 and YES at 11/4

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

    You have a strange perception of drifting , it has hardly moved in a week and still sitting around 62% of votes for YES and odds exactly as they were a week ago give or take a minute fraction either way. Seems it is your brain that is drifting.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Grandiose said:

    54% in according to the BBC and the Conservatives are heading for 250 losses, LibDems 280, UKIP 185 gains, Labour 315, on the naive measure.

    I made a prediction a couple (or 3) of days ago that the results for UKIP would be 34.4% for the Euros and a gain of 171 seats for the locals.

    For the locals I think I will be more or less correct.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:


    You seem confused. The committee including cross party MSP's wrote the report and published it , that is democracy. It was not an SNP report.
    You are trying to conflate sour grapes with democracy and not painting a pretty picture.

    I know 'facts' aren't your strong suit.....

    Nationalist MSPs on a Holyrood committee examining the issue softened criticisms of the Scottish Government's stance in a major report to be published today, against the will of opposition members.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10850525/SNP-uses-majority-to-stifle-criticism-of-Alex-Salmonds-EU-membership-stance.html
    You do not seem to get the fact that a committee is made up of a number of members and the majority opinion is what is produced. Trying to say that because the minority parties did not get everything they wanted in the report as being suppression is laughable. Do you think the Tories do everything Nick Clegg tells them he wants, be serious. You have lost sight of reality with your hatred, I certainly do not expect David Cameron to implement SNP or Labour policies, why do you think it is sensible the other way round.
    In Westminster' Parliamentary Cttes aim for consensus, and when that is not possible, publish minority reports.

    In SNPLand, the SNP bulldoze dissenting opinion and veto the publication of a minority dissenting view.....
    Where did you see there was not a consensus. Some weasely words fro a Tory paper and you make that into "suppression". Have you got names of MSP's who claim they were ignored and that their opinions were suppressed and excluded from the report.
  • UKIP 6 gains in Great Yarmouth so far (compared to 2 Con, 1 Lab). Not surprising but still...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Agree wholeheartedly.

    BTW: May I add my thanks to AndyJS and the others on PB who have been providing a much better and more coherent summary of the results and swings than the mainstream media seem to be able to manage.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TESTING
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    So far,labour are doing pretty well in my eye's,labour doing well in marginal seats,london turning red and I must say the ukip surge is hurting tories in seats than labour.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Labour are doing pretty well in my eye's,labour doing well in marginal seats,london turning red and I must admit the ukip surge is hitting tory seats more than labour.
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