And why are Labour slagging off Ed's Euro campaign when they don't know the results? Again, I hate the Reds but give the weirdo a chance before you vilify him.
Hate is a strong word.
Labour have a long standing record of blaming the leadership for projected defeats. After all, who can remember Bob Marshall-Andrews laying into Brewers Court for his losing his seat, only to then be informed that he had held the seat...
Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?
West Ham ?
Almost certainly
Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters
Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)
Not sure that Ed will ever be PM, but I am also struggling to see why people are claiming this is a dismal performance by Labour. It strikes me as steady as she goes, with a few bright spots and a few worrisome spots. I don't see any results indicating that Labour will lose seats to anyone next year. And it seems likely that the party will make a decent number of gains. They won't win outright, but they are certainly in with a chance of being the biggest party.
Its been a good night for Labour! Some good wins in some interesting places. In other Labour heartland places UKIP have made inroads - which for me is also a good thing as various Labour one party states are awful. And the main reason why its good is the rise and rise of UKIP - the more they score in Tory seats the better for Labour. And theyre doing very well.
Remember, this is a 4 party election in a 4 party world. Comparisons to 3 party elections in a 3 party world are old hat - the challenge for both Labour and Tory hopes for the election is what impact the Kippers have on their chance of winning/retaining marginal seats. And my take on what I am seeing so far is that its better for us than the Blues. the "why haven't Labour hoovered up a bazillion seats" question seems silly - remember that the electorate hates all of us now.
But in that anti-politics hate under FPTP we will still end up with either Labour or Tory as the government regardless of how poorly they do compared to past elections. We saw Blair have a decent majority on just 35% in 2005 - I think the "winning" party will do very well to clear 33% this time. Not that national % matters when it comes to seats.
Nice try. Labour have done well in London; the Tories should never have lost H&F and there should be some searching questions asked about that. Otherwise, Labour have little to be pleased about. As Antony Wells says these are very modest gains on the back of a lacklustre performance. UKIP are likely to make 35-40% of all the council gains.
This really shouldn't be happening to the main opposition party less than a year from a general election it aspires to win. For me, it has strong echos of the Duncan-Smith and Howard results from 2003 and 2004. Except it was the Lib Dems competing with them then and it's UKIP now.
And why are Labour slagging off Ed's Euro campaign when they don't know the results? Again, I hate the Reds but give the weirdo a chance before you vilify him.
Hate is a strong word.
Labour have a long standing record of blaming the leadership for projected defeats. After all, who can remember Bob Marshall-Andrews laying into Brewers Court for his losing his seat, only to then be informed that he had held the seat...
Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?
West Ham ?
Almost certainly
Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters
Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)
EDIT: Milwall is another UKIP club I agree
Certainly I am a life long Hammers fan. :-)
I nearly was... I asked my Gunners fan of a mum to get me a West Ham shirt in the week before the 1980 FA Cup final, and she came back from Romford market with Arsenals away kit saying they didnt have any West Ham ones!
UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.
Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.
It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.
Incorrect. 50 Seconds for UKIP will win me £50 off of Antifrank
More interesting to see whether UKIP get the opportunity to go into coalition and govern at council level.
For all the noise, there seem to be very few opportunities for them to show their capabilities.
And it will have to be quick. Kipper councillors tend to have a very short half-life. You can't run a council from a prison cell!
I can think of more Tory councillors that have had run ins with the police than Kipper ones.
It's a good Labour result in a target seat, considering that it's in the former coalfield area where UKIP have been doing particularly well. Again shows that each area is reacting differently as the 3-party monopoly comes under assault.
Sir Robin Wales re-elected as Mayor of Newham with 61% of first preference votes. Conservative second on 18%, UKIP third on 6%, Green fourth, Lib Dem sixth and CPA eighth and last.
Looks odds-on a clean sweep of the 60 council seats for Labour with counting due this afternoon.
Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?
West Ham ?
Almost certainly
Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters
Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)
EDIT: Milwall is another UKIP club I agree
Certainly I am a life long Hammers fan. :-)
I nearly was... I asked my Gunners fan of a mum to get me a West Ham shirt in the week before the 1980 FA Cup final, and she came back from Romford market with Arsenals away kit saying they didnt have any West Ham ones!
Mums and football eh?
When I was schoolboy, Liverpool played in the UEFA cup match whilst I was in school, so I asked my Mum to record the match (this was on VHS, in the days before Sky plus)
I got home, and the following conversation took place
Me: Did you record the match?
Mum: I did.
Me: Thanks, don't tell me the score
Mum: I couldn't even I wanted to, there weren't any goals in it.
I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.
Splitter.
Damn right he's a splitter. He's splitting the An Independence From Europe vote.
As I contemplated the toilet-roll-sized Euros ballot paper last night I was depressed to see how much of its length was in consequence of all the various loony anti-prosperity parties: UKIP, NO2EU, AIFE, Labour...
Oppositions ALWAYS gain seats from the governing party through mid-term local elections. It's the scale of the gains that's important and Ed Milliband is falling well short of where he should be, as he has throughout this Parliament in a variety of elections, by elections, opinion polls, etc...
3 party thinking mate. Oppositions ARE gaining seats, and in many cases the specific opposition is UKIP. There is a clear, distinct and importantly growing trend of people who are sick of politicians. UKIP have played this tune very well and are reaping the rewards. Too many people - do I include you or not? - think UKIP will melt away over the next 12 months and the voters will "return home".
They won't.
On that basis comparisons to previous election cycles where there wasn't this sizable anti-politics vote and just 3 main parties are simply wrong. It doesn't matter that the vote share for any of the big three doesn't compare well to prior years because its now a big 4, and the new entrant splits the vote in all kinds of ways. Labour won the Witney Central council seat after UKIP split the Tory vote last time. This time its Croydon council. Replicate this across marginal seats across the country and the UKIP effect will benefit Labour more than it benefits the Tories in places like Rotherham when UKIP take from Labour.
Again, national % shares, UNS - all of that is irelevant where its fought seat by seat and the majority you need is 1. I think Labour will win a majority next year and I think the national % for what its worth might be as low as 33%. An "awful" performance "far short of where it needs to be" and yet sufficient for a majority in a 4 party world.
Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?
West Ham ?
Almost certainly
Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters
Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)
EDIT: Milwall is another UKIP club I agree
Certainly I am a life long Hammers fan. :-)
I nearly was... I asked my Gunners fan of a mum to get me a West Ham shirt in the week before the 1980 FA Cup final, and she came back from Romford market with Arsenals away kit saying they didnt have any West Ham ones!
West Ham now have a shop in Romford, next to the Liberty Shopping Centre (they also have one in Lakeside Thurrock)
UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.
Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.
It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.
Incorrect. 50 Seconds for UKIP will win me £50 off of Antifrank
More interesting to see whether UKIP get the opportunity to go into coalition and govern at council level.
For all the noise, there seem to be very few opportunities for them to show their capabilities.
And it will have to be quick. Kipper councillors tend to have a very short half-life. You can't run a council from a prison cell!
I can think of more Tory councillors that have had run ins with the police than Kipper ones.
We need a bit of proportional representation here, Richard.
At least you avoided the risk of having Neil Hamilton elected.
Clearly an excellent night for UKIP, for me its hard to work out whether its been a particularly good or bad night for the the tories & labour and the Lib Dems have performed to expectations. I would think though that if Labour want to win an outright majority at the GE they should have done better.
One small but interesting point is the performance of UKIP in areas where they have a good ground organization and some Council representation. They have actually lost some seats and in Eastleigh where they were close 2nd favourites to win the seat at the GE they did not win a single seat. I dont know if this means anything or could be down to local matters but on a night of astonishing gains to seem them losing seats and not gaining any in Eastleigh is a surprise. Its like Labour losing seats at the 1997 GE.
UKIPs best performance is in areas where they have had no representation at all.
An interesting betting spread would be the number of new UKIP Councillors whose seat comes up for a by-election in the next 12 months.
Not sure why. My chosen party of the moment is doing better than expected. The arguments I believe in are clearly being won with the public and the blocks to leaving the EU - primarily Cameroons and the Lib Dems - are getting the mauling they deserve.
Are the Lib Dems really a major stumbling block to Brexit? They're unusual in being avowedly pro-European integration, and unafraid to campaign for it (far more vocal than Labour on joining the euro, for instance) but in practical terms just how influential are they? They hardly built up a wave of support to carry us into the single currency, and their decision to play "the party of in" card at this election might best be described as "brave", which is a generous euphemism for a stupid, or at least failed, gamble. They might block an EU referendum in any potential 2015 Coalition deal (with hypocrisy beyond nauseating and well into gut-wrenching territory, though in fairness, I shall incorporate a LD right to reply) but in the long run the Labour party is a far more significant blocking force.
That's partly why I voted NO2EU in the Euros. In my constituency, they were running a decent comedy-earnest student candidate from the Communist Party, and a bevvy of good old-fashioned trade unionists. Not so many decades ago, Labourites. I wanted to remind them, and the Lib Dems (who, European policy aside, might be my more natural home - if they could pull themselves together) that there are eurosceptic votes to be won in the central and leftwards spectrum. As I'm in the south of England, I think a UKIP vote would be counterproductive for that. Most lefty types I know down here regard every vote for UKIP as evidence that firstly you are some sort of uneducated alien species deserving only contempt, and secondly, that the right-wing nasties are still hopelessly split over Europe (titter). Both analyses being heaving piles of unmitigated crap. But on current form, every additional ballot for UKIP only seems to bolster these views among the chattering classes, not prompt the reassessment I desire.
I hope that a UKIP upswing in Labour heartlands will cause more pennies to drop. Though I fear a mere readjustment of attitudes from contempt to patronisation. "Oh the poor northern dears, they are probably suffering still from decades of Tory cultural and educational policies, they must have post-traumatic stress from Thatcher so no wonder they voted for Nasty Nigel. Such a shame Hull isn't as multicultural yet as London, that would so very much help them all to just learn how to get along. We really must send some more spads up from London to understand their concerns and represent them all in parliament."
UKIP's vote was hugely boosted by the llocal election's coinciding with the euros.
Most of these voters will go back to the Tories in 2015. If enough return, Cameron will be PM, not Miliband.
You can't sensibly argue that UKIP is taking votes from Labour and then predict they'll "go back to the Tories". The only recent data we have was the poll last week of UKIP supporters on what they expect to do next year. 71% expect to stay with UKIP, 15% to go to the Tories, and 11% to go to Labour (I met lots of these during knock-up, and I'm sure Tories will have met promised returners too). That 4% difference of the 15% UKIP are getting is around 0.5% of the overall vote.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Kippers return to their former parties differentially, but we're all in wild speculation territory there. At present the most plausible outcome is Labour largest party but no overall majority, but there's a huge range of possible variations.
Am I the only one who think UKIP have done merely good but not brilliant given these seats were last fought at a non-euro election year. Tories and Labour have done ok as well . Far from being a game changer nothing much has changed imo
The disparity between London and the rest of the country is really startling. Labour are apparently doing about as well in London as Blair in full pomp, while elsewhere it's below Kinnock/Foot levels.
Made even more baffling by the fact London is supposed to be one of the few places where the economic recovery is actually happening. So much for "it's the economy stupid".
It's immigration, Danny.
Sunil did a series of interesting charts a couple of years ago.
It was a particularly bad night for Labour, which saw heavy defections among voters with tattoos. First there was a massive swing to Ukip in their northern strongholds, parts of which have been voting Labour since 1066. This was followed by the Conservatives holding onto Swindon: the leader of the Swindon Labour Party blamed Mr Miliband and Mr Miliband released a statement in which he blamed “wasisname”. Mr Miliband told party workers in his Nottinghill garden, “We know this much: Swindon is somewhere in England and its major industries are something important. Swindon matters a great deal to the Labour Party, which is why I intend to Google it as soon as someone gets the laptop up and running.” Insiders say that they never expected Labour to gain more than 12 council seats and they were happy with the final tally of eight. David Axelrod, the American brought in to help Labour win, is said to be focusing his attention on “the vote that really counts – next year’s presidential election between Ed and that other guy.”
At the quaint belief that we can rewind the clock back to a 1950's Britain, and that your actions will actually end up having the opposite effect to what is being wished for.
All those MEP's who want urgent and drastic reform of the EU, but can't be bothered to turn up and represent their constituents make me smile too.
Except of course none of us want to wind the clock back to the 1950s. That is just a myth perpetuated by the terminally bewildered, out of touch dinosaurs like yourself. We are looking forward and out to the rest of the world whilst you are still lost in the mire of the European backwater.
Nor do UKIP MEPs want "urgent and drastic reform of the EU". They know it is pointless. What they want is for us to leave entirely.
I know this has been a hard night for the dinosaurs of the old parties but you might as well get used to it. Either evolve or become extinct.
'dinosaurs' - that's what I see every time fuddy, duddy Nigel's on TV in his mustard cords, supping on an old mans pint in a dingy pub. Tee hee hee.
Of course unlike the bigoted Tories and Lib Dems I judge people by their words and actions, not by how they look.
According to the BBC with 73 councils in Labour have gained 156 councillors and 5 councils. So unless there is a preponderance of London votes to come they are on target for something like 350 gains.
When Labour were in government they got repeatedly thrashed in local elections leaving the tories with more local councillors than all other parties put together. I don't think Labour are making the kind of progress that an opposition should but this is clearly because of UKIP who are winning seats that the main opposition should have got and have done surprisingly well in some Labour areas reducing the net gains.
For the Lib Dems the disaster continues. In every set of local elections since the Coalition has formed they have been losing about 1/3 of all councillors standing. This looks slightly worse although in fairness they had a higher base this time as they were riding high the last time these seats were fought. Years and years of very hard work are being undone.
For the tories these results are disappointing but not at all surprising. London is clearly a concern. Boris won London with a lot of help from Crosby. There is no doubt where his priorities should lie.
Am I the only one who think UKIP have done merely good but not brilliant given these seats were last fought at a non-euro election year. Tories and Labour have done ok as well . Far from being a game changer nothing much has changed imo
The Locals are merely an electoral appetiser before Sunday's European Psephological Banquet!
You seem confused. The committee including cross party MSP's wrote the report and published it , that is democracy. It was not an SNP report. You are trying to conflate sour grapes with democracy and not painting a pretty picture.
I know 'facts' aren't your strong suit.....
Nationalist MSPs on a Holyrood committee examining the issue softened criticisms of the Scottish Government's stance in a major report to be published today, against the will of opposition members.
You do not seem to get the fact that a committee is made up of a number of members and the majority opinion is what is produced. Trying to say that because the minority parties did not get everything they wanted in the report as being suppression is laughable. Do you think the Tories do everything Nick Clegg tells them he wants, be serious. You have lost sight of reality with your hatred, I certainly do not expect David Cameron to implement SNP or Labour policies, why do you think it is sensible the other way round.
Except when a minority report setting out the political agenda of the SNP is annexed to the main report, as in this case:
17. The previous Scotland Bill Committee published its final report on 3 March 2011.17 The SNP members of the then Committee submitted a minority report, appended to the main report as Annex A, in which they rejected the tax proposals and advanced their position on full financial responsibility for Scotland. http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/45321.aspx
If Salmond is so totalitarian at this stage, the thought of Scotland post-Yes is seriously frightening. Which is a shame, because independence - but under a true statesman - might have been the best thing for Scotland.
Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?
West Ham ?
Almost certainly
Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters
Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)
EDIT: Milwall is another UKIP club I agree
Certainly I am a life long Hammers fan. :-)
I nearly was... I asked my Gunners fan of a mum to get me a West Ham shirt in the week before the 1980 FA Cup final, and she came back from Romford market with Arsenals away kit saying they didnt have any West Ham ones!
West Ham now have a shop in Romford, next to the Liberty Shopping Centre (they also have one in Lakeside Thurrock)
I think its the only lie Mother has ever told! I would have thought every stall was selling WHU shirts
I was in Rommo on Weds and it was quite nostalgic. I had lunch in the Teapot Cafe where I used the get the breakfast in when I worked on the market 20 odd years ago (although it has moved and been developed)...
Rumford Shopping Hall is now called Romford! Disgrace!
UKIP's vote was hugely boosted by the llocal election's coinciding with the euros.
Most of these voters will go back to the Tories in 2015. If enough return, Cameron will be PM, not Miliband.
You can't sensibly argue that UKIP is taking votes from Labour and then predict they'll "go back to the Tories". The only recent data we have was the poll last week of UKIP supporters on what they expect to do next year. 71% expect to stay with UKIP, 15% to go to the Tories, and 11% to go to Labour (I met lots of these during knock-up, and I'm sure Tories will have met promised returners too). That 4% difference of the 15% UKIP are getting is around 0.5% of the overall vote.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Kippers return to their former parties differentially, but we're all in wild speculation territory there. At present the most plausible outcome is Labour largest party but no overall majority, but there's a huge range of possible variations.
Interesting point! It might be worth considering that if a voter has made a decision to switch from their traditional party, there must be a greater chance that if they switch again, they'll take more interest in the actual policies being touted at the GE and choose, rather than blindly jumping back from where they came from.
Nigel Farage has been visiting Thurrock, where Ukip gained five seats.
But he ruled out standing as a candidate in Essex himself at the general election.
"No, that's not for me to do. The point about Essex is, yes, the public are receptive to us but we have got good, local voluntary structures here and that was what the Lib Dems built up during the 1990s.
I would have thought that if I put myself up in Essex to stand the local Ukip branches would reject me on the basis that I wasn't one of them."
He always looks like he has been dragged through a hedge backwards.
However, he gives a better analysis of the Labour performance than you want to record:
" Labour not doing better in key marginals John Curtice Professor of politics at Strathclyde University
There is no clear evidence that Labour are doing better in the places that might be thought crucial to the outcome of the 2015 general election. So far Labour's vote is up by 2.5 points in wards located in Conservative-Labour marginals. This figure is actually slightly less than the 3.5 point increase in Labour's vote across the BBC's key ward marginals "
Simply scaling up current losses, since we're almost t the halfway stage, the Tories and LibDems can expect to lose 270, UKIP to gain 200, Labour to gain 330.
The disparity between London and the rest of the country is really startling. Labour are apparently doing about as well in London as Blair in full pomp, while elsewhere it's below Kinnock/Foot levels.
Made even more baffling by the fact London is supposed to be one of the few places where the economic recovery is actually happening. So much for "it's the economy stupid".
It's immigration, Danny.
Sunil did a series of interesting charts a couple of years ago.
Nigel Farage has been visiting Thurrock, where Ukip gained five seats.
But he ruled out standing as a candidate in Essex himself at the general election.
"No, that's not for me to do. The point about Essex is, yes, the public are receptive to us but we have got good, local voluntary structures here and that was what the Lib Dems built up during the 1990s.
I would have thought that if I put myself up in Essex to stand the local Ukip branches would reject me on the basis that I wasn't one of them."
Oppositions ALWAYS gain seats from the governing party through mid-term local elections. It's the scale of the gains that's important and Ed Milliband is falling well short of where he should be, as he has throughout this Parliament in a variety of elections, by elections, opinion polls, etc...
3 party thinking mate. Oppositions ARE gaining seats, and in many cases the specific opposition is UKIP. There is a clear, distinct and importantly growing trend of people who are sick of politicians. UKIP have played this tune very well and are reaping the rewards. Too many people - do I include you or not? - think UKIP will melt away over the next 12 months and the voters will "return home".
Nigel Farage has been visiting Thurrock, where Ukip gained five seats.
But he ruled out standing as a candidate in Essex himself at the general election.
"No, that's not for me to do. The point about Essex is, yes, the public are receptive to us but we have got good, local voluntary structures here and that was what the Lib Dems built up during the 1990s.
I would have thought that if I put myself up in Essex to stand the local Ukip branches would reject me on the basis that I wasn't one of them."
Nigel Farage has been visiting Thurrock, where Ukip gained five seats.
But he ruled out standing as a candidate in Essex himself at the general election.
"No, that's not for me to do. The point about Essex is, yes, the public are receptive to us but we have got good, local voluntary structures here and that was what the Lib Dems built up during the 1990s.
I would have thought that if I put myself up in Essex to stand the local Ukip branches would reject me on the basis that I wasn't one of them."
Oppositions ALWAYS gain seats from the governing party through mid-term local elections. It's the scale of the gains that's important and Ed Milliband is falling well short of where he should be, as he has throughout this Parliament in a variety of elections, by elections, opinion polls, etc...
3 party thinking mate. Oppositions ARE gaining seats, and in many cases the specific opposition is UKIP. There is a clear, distinct and importantly growing trend of people who are sick of politicians. UKIP have played this tune very well and are reaping the rewards. Too many people - do I include you or not? - think UKIP will melt away over the next 12 months and the voters will "return home".
Simply scaling up current losses, since we're almost t the halfway stage, the Tories and LibDems can expect to lose 270, UKIP to gain 200, Labour to gain 330.
Very close to my forecast in here some weeks ago .
Amazing really, when you think of its wealth and power.
The tories need to do something for struggling 20 and 30-somethings unable to move out from parents homes or seeing everything they earn eaten up in rent and transport. As these people return home from another tough day at the coalface, millionaires sail by in Maseratis.
Am I the only one who think UKIP have done merely good but not brilliant given these seats were last fought at a non-euro election year. Tories and Labour have done ok as well . Far from being a game changer nothing much has changed imo
I wonder how many Tories are pondering the long-run impact of falling outside the Top Two in swathes of the north of England. Regardless of whether the bulk of the votes are amassed from ex-Lab or ex-Con, that phenomenon has the potential to be regionally transformative. In the parliamentary arithmetic, they have never really recovered from relegation from the Top Two in Scotland and they can't afford to repeat that experience elsewhere. The London results should be concerning for the next election. The northern results may just be a passing wind. But if it instead represents the turning of a tide, then the big picture could change for decades to come.
Another good example of an unfair voting system in local government.
Electoral Reform Soc @electoralreform 1m Moving north 2 Wigan. Lab - 2/3s of vote but a huge 94% seats. Cons/UKIP - 26% vote btwn them &no seats pic.twitter.com/0JxgmtJ5RX
Quite how anyone can claim that a voting system where a full two-thirds of voters get the individual councillor and the council they voted for is unfair is a mystery to me.
You have to be a special kind of circular-logic enthusiast to use the reasoning implied here: only a proportional system can be fair; look at the results, this isn't a proportional system; therefore this isn't a fair system.
Amazing really, when you think of its wealth and power.
The tories need to do something for struggling 20 and 30-somethings unable to move out from parents homes or seeing everything they earn eaten up in rent and transport. As these people return home from another tough day at the coalface, millionaires sail by in Maseratis.
You seem confused. The committee including cross party MSP's wrote the report and published it , that is democracy. It was not an SNP report. You are trying to conflate sour grapes with democracy and not painting a pretty picture.
I know 'facts' aren't your strong suit.....
Nationalist MSPs on a Holyrood committee examining the issue softened criticisms of the Scottish Government's stance in a major report to be published today, against the will of opposition members.
You do not seem to get the fact that a committee is made up of a number of members and the majority opinion is what is produced. Trying to say that because the minority parties did not get everything they wanted in the report as being suppression is laughable. Do you think the Tories do everything Nick Clegg tells them he wants, be serious. You have lost sight of reality with your hatred, I certainly do not expect David Cameron to implement SNP or Labour policies, why do you think it is sensible the other way round.
In Westminster' Parliamentary Cttes aim for consensus, and when that is not possible, publish minority reports.
In SNPLand, the SNP bulldoze dissenting opinion and veto the publication of a minority dissenting view.....
Am I the only one who think UKIP have done merely good but not brilliant given these seats were last fought at a non-euro election year. Tories and Labour have done ok as well . Far from being a game changer nothing much has changed imo
I must admit after the Rotherham result I thought that was going to be repeated in a lot of places but it seems not. I guess having an actual leak from Rotherham child services is what pushed it over the tipping point there.
How are the Tories likely to do against the Rallings projection? I don't know, but without that your analysis is meaningless. I picked Scott_P up on similar earlier today...
How come Rallings & Thrasher get their prediction wrong, and this is somehow Labour's fault?
The only comparison that matters is Labour v Tories, and we are ahead.
Because they have an excellent track record, and well, when parties don't meet R&T expectations, they generally don't go on to win subsequent general elections.
UKIP's vote was hugely boosted by the local election's coinciding with the euros.
Most of these voters will go back to the Tories in 2015. If enough return, Cameron will be PM, not Miliband.
You think the Kippers in the likes of Sheffield and Rotherham are in fact disaffected Tories? Well, it's a theory...
I think northern Labour Kippers are probably angrier than Tory Kippers (they must be, to make such a leap from Miliband to Farage), so they are, perhaps, more likely to stay with UKIP.
But anyway, there are more Tory Kippers than Labour Kippers, so more Kipper votes to squeeze for Cameron.
I think the quiet winner here is the Tory party: Labour should be doing better, the Lib Dems are collapsing. There is a clear route to a Tory plurality, maybe even a Tory majority, from this point.
London is a big problem for Tories, though. And Scotland could change everything.
Right so the northern Kippers are sufficient in number to lose Labour its held seats in the north?
Pulpstar - this result is a particularly big ouch for the LDs
Stocksbridge and Upper Don Ward (UKIP GAIN from Lib Dems)
Liberal Democrat: Susan Elaine Auckland - Votes: 353 Labour Party: Lisa Anne Jean Banes - Votes: 1207 Independent: Martin Charles Brelsford - Votes: 526 UK Independence Party (UKIP): Jack Clarkson - Votes: 2496 Green Party: Dan Lyons -Votes: 419 Conservative Party: Nigel Owen -Votes: 621
He always looks like he has been dragged through a hedge backwards.
However, he gives a better analysis of the Labour performance than you want to record:
" Labour not doing better in key marginals John Curtice Professor of politics at Strathclyde University
There is no clear evidence that Labour are doing better in the places that might be thought crucial to the outcome of the 2015 general election. So far Labour's vote is up by 2.5 points in wards located in Conservative-Labour marginals. This figure is actually slightly less than the 3.5 point increase in Labour's vote across the BBC's key ward marginals "
What has happened to the Tory score in those marginals?
Incidentally, looking at the current table on the BBC website, if the same results happened next time for these seats, UKIP would have more seats than the Lib Dems (for these particular elections, of course).
Pulpstar - this result is a particularly big ouch for the LDs
Stocksbridge and Upper Don Ward (UKIP GAIN from Lib Dems)
Liberal Democrat: Susan Elaine Auckland - Votes: 353 Labour Party: Lisa Anne Jean Banes - Votes: 1207 Independent: Martin Charles Brelsford - Votes: 526 UK Independence Party (UKIP): Jack Clarkson - Votes: 2496 Green Party: Dan Lyons -Votes: 419 Conservative Party: Nigel Owen -Votes: 621
And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.
Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.
How come Rallings & Thrasher get their prediction wrong, and this is somehow Labour's fault?
The only comparison that matters is Labour v Tories, and we are ahead.
Because they have an excellent track record, and well, when parties don't meet R&T expectations, they generally don't go on to win subsequent general elections.
Well this time they got their calcs wrong by not allowing for UKIP. Their mistake.
Some professor - John Curtice (?) - on The World at One pointing out that Labour are doing no better in London than anywhere else. He said (if I've remembered correctly) that because the elections in London are for whole councils the results are skewed. Labour's underlying position is not as good as it looks.
How come Rallings & Thrasher get their prediction wrong, and this is somehow Labour's fault?
The only comparison that matters is Labour v Tories, and we are ahead.
Because they have an excellent track record, and well, when parties don't meet R&T expectations, they generally don't go on to win subsequent general elections.
Well this time they got their calcs wrong by not allowing for UKIP. Their mistake.
They did, see the next thread that goes up in a few mins
The only comparison that matters is Labour v Tories, and we are ahead.
Well of course Labour's ahead - It really would be meltdown time if Labour was actually behind, LOL!!!!!
Why 'of course'? The latest YouGov has a tie for GE vote share.
Because the main Opposition party will always (ALWAYS) make gains against the governing party in local elections - It's like clockwork - You build up your local government base in Opposition and lose it in government. Then when your turfed out of government you start building your local base again and so it goes on.
What matters is the size and scale of the gains. Labour have done well in London, but otherwise an election to forget for Lab and not a good portent for the general election.
He always looks like he has been dragged through a hedge backwards.
However, he gives a better analysis of the Labour performance than you want to record:
" Labour not doing better in key marginals John Curtice Professor of politics at Strathclyde University
There is no clear evidence that Labour are doing better in the places that might be thought crucial to the outcome of the 2015 general election. So far Labour's vote is up by 2.5 points in wards located in Conservative-Labour marginals. This figure is actually slightly less than the 3.5 point increase in Labour's vote across the BBC's key ward marginals "
What has happened to the Tory score in those marginals?
Think you are missing the point there m8 - there's none so blind as will not see:). At some point it's gonna dawn on you that Labour are not where they need to be to win next year.
And the ??? is why their "forecast" was a guess. As was Prof Fisher who gave Labour a projection of +130 but "doesn't have a figure for UKIP because his model doesn't cover it" according to The Guardian.
Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.
RP
Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.
There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.
Comments
This really shouldn't be happening to the main opposition party less than a year from a general election it aspires to win. For me, it has strong echos of the Duncan-Smith and Howard results from 2003 and 2004. Except it was the Lib Dems competing with them then and it's UKIP now.
Wafer thin margins in former northern strongholds to UKIP, an efficiency of vote that will never be seen the likes of before or aft.
AB makes DH look neutral
He is a scruffy sod!
Sir Robin Wales re-elected as Mayor of Newham with 61% of first preference votes. Conservative second on 18%, UKIP third on 6%, Green fourth, Lib Dem sixth and CPA eighth and last.
Looks odds-on a clean sweep of the 60 council seats for Labour with counting due this afternoon.
When I was schoolboy, Liverpool played in the UEFA cup match whilst I was in school, so I asked my Mum to record the match (this was on VHS, in the days before Sky plus)
I got home, and the following conversation took place
Me: Did you record the match?
Mum: I did.
Me: Thanks, don't tell me the score
Mum: I couldn't even I wanted to, there weren't any goals in it.
They won't.
On that basis comparisons to previous election cycles where there wasn't this sizable anti-politics vote and just 3 main parties are simply wrong. It doesn't matter that the vote share for any of the big three doesn't compare well to prior years because its now a big 4, and the new entrant splits the vote in all kinds of ways. Labour won the Witney Central council seat after UKIP split the Tory vote last time. This time its Croydon council. Replicate this across marginal seats across the country and the UKIP effect will benefit Labour more than it benefits the Tories in places like Rotherham when UKIP take from Labour.
Again, national % shares, UNS - all of that is irelevant where its fought seat by seat and the majority you need is 1. I think Labour will win a majority next year and I think the national % for what its worth might be as low as 33%. An "awful" performance "far short of where it needs to be" and yet sufficient for a majority in a 4 party world.
(they also have one in Lakeside Thurrock)
At least you avoided the risk of having Neil Hamilton elected.
'Its been a good night for Labour! Some good wins in some interesting places.'
So you are confident Labour will end up with +490 seats as per the Railings & Thrasher forecast?
One small but interesting point is the performance of UKIP in areas where they have a good ground organization and some Council representation. They have actually lost some seats and in Eastleigh where they were close 2nd favourites to win the seat at the GE they did not win a single seat. I dont know if this means anything or could be down to local matters but on a night of astonishing gains to seem them losing seats and not gaining any in Eastleigh is a surprise. Its like Labour losing seats at the 1997 GE.
UKIPs best performance is in areas where they have had no representation at all.
An interesting betting spread would be the number of new UKIP Councillors whose seat comes up for a by-election in the next 12 months.
I await the normal attacks from Kippers.
http://order-order.com/2014/05/23/bbc-today-editor-wishes-every-ukip-voter-would-die/
That's partly why I voted NO2EU in the Euros. In my constituency, they were running a decent comedy-earnest student candidate from the Communist Party, and a bevvy of good old-fashioned trade unionists. Not so many decades ago, Labourites. I wanted to remind them, and the Lib Dems (who, European policy aside, might be my more natural home - if they could pull themselves together) that there are eurosceptic votes to be won in the central and leftwards spectrum. As I'm in the south of England, I think a UKIP vote would be counterproductive for that. Most lefty types I know down here regard every vote for UKIP as evidence that firstly you are some sort of uneducated alien species deserving only contempt, and secondly, that the right-wing nasties are still hopelessly split over Europe (titter). Both analyses being heaving piles of unmitigated crap. But on current form, every additional ballot for UKIP only seems to bolster these views among the chattering classes, not prompt the reassessment I desire.
I hope that a UKIP upswing in Labour heartlands will cause more pennies to drop. Though I fear a mere readjustment of attitudes from contempt to patronisation. "Oh the poor northern dears, they are probably suffering still from decades of Tory cultural and educational policies, they must have post-traumatic stress from Thatcher so no wonder they voted for Nasty Nigel. Such a shame Hull isn't as multicultural yet as London, that would so very much help them all to just learn how to get along. We really must send some more spads up from London to understand their concerns and represent them all in parliament."
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Kippers return to their former parties differentially, but we're all in wild speculation territory there. At present the most plausible outcome is Labour largest party but no overall majority, but there's a huge range of possible variations.
http://t.co/VIluaaHWQN
http://t.co/rURkWBal4B
When Labour were in government they got repeatedly thrashed in local elections leaving the tories with more local councillors than all other parties put together. I don't think Labour are making the kind of progress that an opposition should but this is clearly because of UKIP who are winning seats that the main opposition should have got and have done surprisingly well in some Labour areas reducing the net gains.
For the Lib Dems the disaster continues. In every set of local elections since the Coalition has formed they have been losing about 1/3 of all councillors standing. This looks slightly worse although in fairness they had a higher base this time as they were riding high the last time these seats were fought. Years and years of very hard work are being undone.
For the tories these results are disappointing but not at all surprising. London is clearly a concern. Boris won London with a lot of help from Crosby. There is no doubt where his priorities should lie.
17. The previous Scotland Bill Committee published its final report on 3 March 2011.17 The SNP members of the then Committee submitted a minority report, appended to the main report as Annex A, in which they rejected the tax proposals and advanced their position on full financial responsibility for Scotland.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/45321.aspx
If Salmond is so totalitarian at this stage, the thought of Scotland post-Yes is seriously frightening. Which is a shame, because independence - but under a true statesman - might have been the best thing for Scotland.
I was in Rommo on Weds and it was quite nostalgic. I had lunch in the Teapot Cafe where I used the get the breakfast in when I worked on the market 20 odd years ago (although it has moved and been developed)...
Rumford Shopping Hall is now called Romford! Disgrace!
And yes I got the Push & Pull via Emerson Pk!
For what it's worth, Farage himself said on Andrew Neill's show that Blue kippers tend to return to the tories, whereas a red kipper is for life.
I guess that's why UKIP's real target is labour's northern strongholds.
Ed's going to have some job trying to keep them onside whilst retaining the very good result he has had in London
Looks to me like at least 250 gains looks likely.
Best London results since 1970
But he ruled out standing as a candidate in Essex himself at the general election.
"No, that's not for me to do. The point about Essex is, yes, the public are receptive to us but we have got good, local voluntary structures here and that was what the Lib Dems built up during the 1990s.
I would have thought that if I put myself up in Essex to stand the local Ukip branches would reject me on the basis that I wasn't one of them."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/23/local-election-results-live
" Labour not doing better in key marginals
John Curtice
Professor of politics at Strathclyde University
There is no clear evidence that Labour are doing better in the places that might be thought crucial to the outcome of the 2015 general election. So far Labour's vote is up by 2.5 points in wards located in Conservative-Labour marginals. This figure is actually slightly less than the 3.5 point increase in Labour's vote across the BBC's key ward marginals "
Pleased to see the Lubyanka filing system is still in order.
Tim Aker is standing in Thurrock
I have put myself forward for Hornchurch and Upminster but feel I may be too late as the hustings are on June 10th
Specifically Gary Mabbut, 1987 ^_~
under 15% 100/1
15-20% 33/1
20-25% 4/1
25-30% 7/4
30-35% 7/4
35-40% 5/1
Over 40% 16/1
UKIP 1.35
Lab 3.5
Con 44
Shadsy has two new markets up.
UKIP 1/6
Labour 7/2
Conservatives 25/1
Lib Dems 200/1
Tory voted in for Warfedale ward.
Electoral Reform Soc @electoralreform 1m
Moving north 2 Wigan. Lab - 2/3s of vote but a huge 94% seats. Cons/UKIP - 26% vote btwn them &no seats pic.twitter.com/0JxgmtJ5RX
Amazing really, when you think of its wealth and power.
The tories need to do something for struggling 20 and 30-somethings unable to move out from parents homes or seeing everything they earn eaten up in rent and transport. As these people return home from another tough day at the coalface, millionaires sail by in Maseratis.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/#vanilla-comments
You have to be a special kind of circular-logic enthusiast to use the reasoning implied here: only a proportional system can be fair; look at the results, this isn't a proportional system; therefore this isn't a fair system.
C'est incredible!
They are MEPs.
Might have been a sting to annoy Guido.
Although 'apparently' it's not a real account...
In SNPLand, the SNP bulldoze dissenting opinion and veto the publication of a minority dissenting view.....
The only comparison that matters is Labour v Tories, and we are ahead.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals
CON -160
LAB +500
LD - 340
Ukip ???
9:53 AM - 29 Apr 2014
One of the ones Guido was using was fake. Is it that one?
Stocksbridge and Upper Don Ward (UKIP GAIN from Lib Dems)
Liberal Democrat: Susan Elaine Auckland - Votes: 353
Labour Party: Lisa Anne Jean Banes - Votes: 1207
Independent: Martin Charles Brelsford - Votes: 526
UK Independence Party (UKIP): Jack Clarkson - Votes: 2496
Green Party: Dan Lyons -Votes: 419
Conservative Party: Nigel Owen -Votes: 621
I think that this is the one Guido was quoting.
Incidentally, looking at the current table on the BBC website, if the same results happened next time for these seats, UKIP would have more seats than the Lib Dems (for these particular elections, of course).
Eh? PP has shortened Yes from 3/1 to 11/4 and lengthened No from 2/9 to 1/4.
Oh ha!
Hard to tell!
Two psephologists. Two Labour forecasts at opposite ends of the spectrum. Generated by two models which do not account for the fact that we are now in a 4 party world. In other words useless outdated guesses.
Thankfully the word is no-one is hurt.
Scotsman @TheScotsman 19 mins
Firefighters tackling huge blaze at Glasgow School of Art's Mackintosh building: http://bit.ly/1tsTL5u http://tinyurl.com/q8b5kdf
See the full article: http://ind.pn/1jJBuze
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXYfnWRp1Q0
What matters is the size and scale of the gains. Labour have done well in London, but otherwise an election to forget for Lab and not a good portent for the general election.
Save your energy and imagination for finding a replacement for Ed Miliband.
There is no spin possible that can turn Labour's performance into a triumph.
And it is not the psephologists who are to blame.