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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    JackW said:

    BBC - LAB GAIN Amber Valley Council from CON

    https://twitter.com/johnbhess

    Is that thanks to UKIP?

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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    MaxU said:

    Interestingly, Good Energy provide a 20% discount on their electricity prices to people who live near to one of their wind turbine farms.

    That would give me as much extra money each month as Osborne's latest increase to the personal tax allowance.
    Does it work or is there still local resistance and what sort of radius to they draw. I am not sure that 20% off would be enough to persuade me.



    You'd find that as soon as Miliband gets in, courtesy of UKIP, he'd withdraw that from higher rate taxpayers.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    BBC - LAB GAIN Amber Valley Council from CON

    https://twitter.com/johnbhess

    Is that thanks to UKIP?

    No detailed figures yet.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262



    At the quaint belief that we can rewind the clock back to a 1950's Britain, and that your actions will actually end up having the opposite effect to what is being wished for.

    All those MEP's who want urgent and drastic reform of the EU, but can't be bothered to turn up and represent their constituents make me smile too.

    Except of course none of us want to wind the clock back to the 1950s. That is just a myth perpetuated by the terminally bewildered, out of touch dinosaurs like yourself. We are looking forward and out to the rest of the world whilst you are still lost in the mire of the European backwater.

    Nor do UKIP MEPs want "urgent and drastic reform of the EU". They know it is pointless. What they want is for us to leave entirely.

    I know this has been a hard night for the dinosaurs of the old parties but you might as well get used to it. Either evolve or become extinct.
    'dinosaurs' - that's what I see every time fuddy, duddy Nigel's on TV in his mustard cords, supping on an old mans pint in a dingy pub. Tee hee hee.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    Mr. F, must admit, I hadn't heard the boiling alive story. That is quite horrid.

    Mr. Fett, given you seem outraged that an individual might not travel to London simply to admire its delights I'm not sure your view of London being hated is necessarily correct.

    You claim it as an English city, its capital, and can't even take a two-hour train journey to check it out. Not even once in your life, even though you are in your thirties. If you did visit, you might actually think better of us rather than moaning about us all the time.
    The reason UKIP dont do well in London is that relatively few people who live there were born there, and very few people have elderly relatives there. UKIP voters are generally people who dont like what is happening to the place they knew as home growing up, but still live nearby

    If your parents or Grandparents are stuck in a place they used to love but now dont recognize, surrounded by a load of people talking a different language/all the old shops have changed, UKIP voters empathise with them and vote accordingly.

    My own area is full of people who went to school here and whose families have roots here.. .no one really moves out, hence UKIP will do well

    But inner London is full of newcomers (British and foreign) with no roots there who celebrate the fast pace of change, and cant get their heads round why anyone wouldnt feel the same... so they call them names!!
    LOL – our favourite subject ;-)

    To you, I am classed as a newcomer even though I have lived here longer than I have lived anywhere else and have started a family here. At least you'll consider my little son to be a Londoner – he was born in Shepherd's Bush!
    I am not making a judgement on who is or isnt a Londoner.. that was a petty distraction from the point which is that people with family roots in an area object to a rapid pace of change more than those without any. If your parents or grandparents had lived in Shepherds Bush all their lives and were unhappy at how things have changed there you might not think it was all so wonderful, thats all.

    London doesnt have many of those people compared to the rest of the country, hence UKIP dont make much of an impact. As @SouthamObserver1 said, it is another country now
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    So, the afternoon thread is going to be about Ed being crap.

    Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 17s

    And they're off. @JohnMannMP tells me: Labour had a tremendously ill-judged campaign, in particular the delib dec not to attack @UKIP
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    taffys said:

    Alistair Heath made the point this morning that opposition to fracking boils down to locals feeling they are not being properly compensated for disruption.

    Nope, that is wrong. The opposition is visceral, very deep-rooted, and won't be swayed by argument or promises of compensation. Small, local, anti-fracking groups are very well organised, are very passionate, and are winning the argument hands-down before the other side even starts to put its case.
    This is one of those issues that shows Alistair Heath, despite all his economic framing of the issues, doesn't actually know much about economics. There's very clear behavioural research that show people become even less likely to support this sort of thing in their back yard if they are offered money for it. The logic seems to be "if I'm being compensated, there must really be something wrong with it".
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    As ever, a balanced view on the locals from Anthony Wells:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8840
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Halton council Lab 16 seats LD 1 Labour gain 1 from LD ( seat where Labour failed to nominate a candidate in 2010 )
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    taffys said:

    Fracking is a big unexploded electoral bomb, as I've been saying for a while.

    It's not suprising when people feel they are being royally shafted for people outside the area to make money.

    Same with property development. Compensate locals properly, and the opposition disappears.

    As usual, the tories are far too much on the side of the big guy against the little guy.

    Interestingly, Good Energy provide a 20% discount on their electricity prices to people who live near to one of their wind turbine farms.

    That would give me as much extra money each month as Osborne's latest increase to the personal tax allowance.
    20% would give me about £15 a month or so.
    They could and should be way more generous than that.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Holy Crap on a cracker, just seen the Sutton results.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    This Other party is doing well - more councillors than UKIP
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    AveryLP said:

    Has Miliband resigned yet?

    Christ, I hope not.

    It's all looking very well-timed: Miliband has been exposed as a fool, but too close to the GE for it to be plausible to replace him.

    He's unlucky in his enemies but lucky in his opponents. The PLP is still stuffed with the vicious, mediocre buffoons who wrecked the economy. Every one is just as stunted a pygmy as Ed Moribund.

    If the Tories can win in 2015 they'll win in 2020 as well.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    As ever, a balanced view on the locals from Anthony Wells:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8840

    Yes. A very sane appraisal.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Nuneaton and Bedworth DC final results Lab 14 Con 2 Green 1

    Labour gain 3 from Con , Green gain 1 from Con
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Jim WatersonVerified account

    @jimwaterson

    UKIP got more votes than Labour in Rotherham. More:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-support-has-surged-and-the-old-parties-are-absolutely

    pic.twitter.com/oCxwtuAYpG
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    Or, to put it another way: if PR is the solution to political disenchantment, then surely everyone should be delighted with the coalition we have at the moment - which is exactly the kind of effect you'd get with PR. I don't see too much sign of such enthusiasm.

    I've seen a fair bit of enthusiasm for the government from you, so by similarly convoluted reasoning you should be delighted with PR.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138

    Jim WatersonVerified account

    @jimwaterson

    UKIP got more votes than Labour in Rotherham. More:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-support-has-surged-and-the-old-parties-are-absolutely

    pic.twitter.com/oCxwtuAYpG

    Well deserved given what has happened there.



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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxU said:

    Interestingly, Good Energy provide a 20% discount on their electricity prices to people who live near to one of their wind turbine farms.

    That would give me as much extra money each month as Osborne's latest increase to the personal tax allowance.
    Does it work or is there still local resistance and what sort of radius to they draw. I am not sure that 20% off would be enough to persuade me.I think the radius is roughly 3km, and they are finding that there is still a fair bit of local resistance at first, but that this reduces as people either get used to the turbines or move away. They do also find local support as well - places seem to get quite split on this sort of thing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Not sure why media and PBers are being so critical of Labour. They've done very well in London, they are gaining seats all over the country, more than UKIP and will be well over 200+. Weird Ed will defo. be PM nexy year on this swings. We Tories will be in oppo for another 5 miserable years.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    edited May 2014
    Looks like my home patch of Redbridge has turned Red for the first time since its inception in 1965 (Greater London Council act).

    Lab 35 +9
    Con 25 -5
    LD 3 -4

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/councils/E09000026
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    Jim WatersonVerified account

    @jimwaterson

    UKIP got more votes than Labour in Rotherham. More:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-support-has-surged-and-the-old-parties-are-absolutely

    pic.twitter.com/oCxwtuAYpG

    Interesting that the people counting votes need to wear hi viz vests.
    I didn't know it was that dangerous

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138

    As ever, a balanced view on the locals from Anthony Wells:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8840

    For me the key takeaway from these results is this: if we do have a four party system in many parts of England now, it is going to be very difficult to say what parties *should* be doing based on what has happened in the past. What may have applied just four years ago could well be no longer applicable. I guess it all depends on how well the UKIP vote holds up - as Wells notes, this was Euro election time and UKIP's supporters were much more motivated.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Socrates said:

    There's very clear behavioural research that show people become even less likely to support this sort of thing in their back yard if they are offered money for it. The logic seems to be "if I'm being compensated, there must really be something wrong with it".

    Yes, well that would make sense.

    In any case the amounts of money which could realistically be offered are nothing like enough to make a difference, even if people were prepared to accept monetary compensation for loss of peace, quiet and beautiful countryside. Osborne's dad-in-law might be tactless and would no doubt be better advised to shut up, but he was actually right when he said “Spending time and money trying to bribe and cajole rural communities is a complete waste, as well as putting backs up and losing rural votes. Villages ... where homes are worth a million will be unimpressed by £100k offers.”

    The only way to get fracking in rural England accepted would be to decisively win the argument that the environmental damage can be made minimal. I'm not qualified to judge whether that is in fact the case, but my point is that that argument has already been lost. It's too late.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Jim WatersonVerified account

    @jimwaterson

    UKIP got more votes than Labour in Rotherham. More:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-support-has-surged-and-the-old-parties-are-absolutely

    pic.twitter.com/oCxwtuAYpG

    Interesting that the people counting votes need to wear hi viz vests.
    I didn't know it was that dangerous

    Paper cuts are no laughing matter.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    First results from Leeds Labour gain Headingley from Lib Dems but Lib Dems hold Rothwell , both wards won by Labour in both 2011 and 2012
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Comrade Sunilsky needs to present to Dr. Sox with symptoms of schizophrenia.

    A tin foil hat may help.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I fail to see where the ed is crap conclusion is coming from.

    Labour has done very well indeed with a certain type of voter in Britain's big cities.Ed plays very well with generation rent.

    If there is a pattern its voters' distaste for Cameron's turquoise big state, big corporate, europhile conservatism.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    On topic, great news about Neil Hamilton. What on earth were UKIP thinking when they took him on board?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Have your eyes swivelled yet, have you joined a golf club, bought a flat cap, been on a tour of London's pubs ?

    Bought the blazer and old school tie yet ;) ?
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    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Snap.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Villages ... where homes are worth a million will be unimpressed by £100k offers.”

    They'd much prefer it if I paid them nothing instead. LOL....
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138
    Dixie said:

    Not sure why media and PBers are being so critical of Labour. They've done very well in London, they are gaining seats all over the country, more than UKIP and will be well over 200+. Weird Ed will defo. be PM nexy year on this swings. We Tories will be in oppo for another 5 miserable years.

    Not sure that Ed will ever be PM, but I am also struggling to see why people are claiming this is a dismal performance by Labour. It strikes me as steady as she goes, with a few bright spots and a few worrisome spots. I don't see any results indicating that Labour will lose seats to anyone next year. And it seems likely that the party will make a decent number of gains. They won't win outright, but they are certainly in with a chance of being the biggest party.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Good to see Labour going backwards in Solihull

    Cons +1
    Greens +4
    LD -3
    Lab -3
    Ukip +1
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Holy Crap on a cracker, just seen the Sutton results.

    The Lib Dems do seem tremendously resilient still in their strongholds.

    If Solihull stays Yellow at GE2015, it'll not be a good night for the Tories.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2014

    I've seen a fair bit of enthusiasm for the government from you, so by similarly convoluted reasoning you should be delighted with PR.

    Not really, because whilst I am very pleased with this government - the best, bar Maggie, for 50 years - it is so only because of the very precise parliamentary arithmetic. In any case, it is not clear that the tensions inherent in coalition are such that it can last beyond the very particular circumstances of immediate the post-crash period. So, yes, we were extremely lucky this time round that it worked out so well, but I certainly would count on being so lucky in future hung parliaments.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Damn right he's a splitter. He's splitting the An Independence From Europe vote.

    As I contemplated the toilet-roll-sized Euros ballot paper last night I was depressed to see how much of its length was in consequence of all the various loony anti-prosperity parties: UKIP, NO2EU, AIFE, Labour...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Pulpstar said:

    Holy Crap on a cracker, just seen the Sutton results.

    The Lib Dems do seem tremendously resilient still in their strongholds.

    If Solihull stays Yellow at GE2015, it'll not be a good night for the Tories.
    Then again you have Kingston.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2014

    MaxU said:

    Interestingly, Good Energy provide a 20% discount on their electricity prices to people who live near to one of their wind turbine farms.

    That would give me as much extra money each month as Osborne's latest increase to the personal tax allowance.

    Does it work or is there still local resistance and what sort of radius to they draw. I am not sure that 20% off would be enough to persuade me.
    I think the radius is roughly 3km, and they are finding that there is still a fair bit of local resistance at first, but that this reduces as people either get used to the turbines or move away. They do also find local support as well - places seem to get quite split on this sort of thing.
    At a distance of 3km the 125m tall turbines [to blade tip] will look about the same size as an adults outstretched thumb.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Damn right he's a splitter. He's splitting the An Independence From Europe vote.

    As I contemplated the toilet-roll-sized Euros ballot paper last night I was depressed to see how much of its length was in consequence of all the various loony anti-prosperity parties: UKIP, NO2EU, AIFE, Labour...
    Didn't you vote for AIFE ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2014
    Amber Valley con leader blaming UKIP....same as Croydon
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is there a projected national share of the vote yet?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    yes sir they are

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    I would be stunned if they didn't win by atleast 5%.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: BBC vote share in 'key wards': Lab 32% Con 28% LD16% UKIP 15%. Lab only up 4% on 2010, and Lab actually 10% *down* on 2012.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    I bloody hope so after my slight error in leaving a lay at 5.0 for £20 on Labour overnight ^_~


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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Has Richmond declared yet?
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    If the Labour party gave everyone a quid for every time they mention the cost of living crisis there wouldn't be a cost of living crisis
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    On topic, great news about Neil Hamilton. What on earth were UKIP thinking when they took him on board?

    That with his attitude to expenses he'd fit in very well?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    Has Richmond declared yet?

    Yes . Apart from one ward which has to recount on Sunday
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
    Like Sheffield? Or Manchester? :)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    Betfair doesn't seem to think so, they're at much the same price as they were yesterday. I'd rather back it today, mind, though perhaps the relative failure of UKIP London is weighing on the price?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
    Move out to Thurrock Sunil, will be a kipper seat at next GE ^_~
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    And why are Labour slagging off Ed's Euro campaign when they don't know the results? Again, I hate the Reds but give the weirdo a chance before you vilify him.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    UKIP will win the Euros and win big!

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    Betfair doesn't seem to think so, they're at much the same price as they were yesterday. I'd rather back it today, mind, though perhaps the relative failure of UKIP London is weighing on the price?
    If that's the only reason then its definitely a back.

    Are Labour on 39%, Con 22, UKIP 22 or so ?

    That was the expectation from the poll which lead to us all smashing into Labour there.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481

    Am I right to assume that based on the council elections declared so far, UKIP are going to storm the Euros?

    Betfair doesn't seem to think so, they're at much the same price as they were yesterday. I'd rather back it today, mind, though perhaps the relative failure of UKIP London is weighing on the price?
    Re Betfair: London and add in anticipated under performance by UKIP in Scotland could explain it.
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    A downturn this morning for the Tories in Stephen Fisher's weekly projection of the 2015 GE outcome, based on UKPR's latest averaging of the polls.

    He now goes (with changes from last week) as follows:

    Con ......... 307 seats (-9)
    Lab .......... 284 seats (+10)
    LibDem ...... 31 seats (+1)
    Other .........28 seats (-2)

    Total ........ 650 seats
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    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
    Hertsmere is not that far from you and apart from a smidgen in the late 90's is reliably Tory
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Damn right he's a splitter. He's splitting the An Independence From Europe vote.

    As I contemplated the toilet-roll-sized Euros ballot paper last night I was depressed to see how much of its length was in consequence of all the various loony anti-prosperity parties: UKIP, NO2EU, AIFE, Labour...
    You said you voted for AIFE.

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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993

    Not sure that Ed will ever be PM, but I am also struggling to see why people are claiming this is a dismal performance by Labour. It strikes me as steady as she goes, with a few bright spots and a few worrisome spots. I don't see any results indicating that Labour will lose seats to anyone next year. And it seems likely that the party will make a decent number of gains. They won't win outright, but they are certainly in with a chance of being the biggest party.

    Its been a good night for Labour! Some good wins in some interesting places. In other Labour heartland places UKIP have made inroads - which for me is also a good thing as various Labour one party states are awful. And the main reason why its good is the rise and rise of UKIP - the more they score in Tory seats the better for Labour. And theyre doing very well.

    Remember, this is a 4 party election in a 4 party world. Comparisons to 3 party elections in a 3 party world are old hat - the challenge for both Labour and Tory hopes for the election is what impact the Kippers have on their chance of winning/retaining marginal seats. And my take on what I am seeing so far is that its better for us than the Blues. the "why haven't Labour hoovered up a bazillion seats" question seems silly - remember that the electorate hates all of us now.

    But in that anti-politics hate under FPTP we will still end up with either Labour or Tory as the government regardless of how poorly they do compared to past elections. We saw Blair have a decent majority on just 35% in 2005 - I think the "winning" party will do very well to clear 33% this time. Not that national % matters when it comes to seats.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138

    UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.

    Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.

    It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Mark Wallace ‏@wallaceme 1m

    All 15 Lib Dem councillors wiped out in Brent. #Vote2014
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Has Richmond declared yet?

    Yes . Apart from one ward which has to recount on Sunday
    Mark

    Can I assume the result is not to your liking as you didn't state it?

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    edited May 2014
    Dixie said:

    Not sure why media and PBers are being so critical of Labour. They've done very well in London, they are gaining seats all over the country, more than UKIP and will be well over 200+. Weird Ed will defo. be PM nexy year on this swings. We Tories will be in oppo for another 5 miserable years.

    Oppositions ALWAYS gain seats from the governing party through mid-term local elections. It's the scale of the gains that's important and Ed Milliband is falling well short of where he should be, as he has throughout this Parliament in a variety of elections, by elections, opinion polls, etc...

    That's not to say Labour can't be the largest party in a hung parliament, but nothing that's happened so far with these election results makes me change my view that the 2015 election will see Con winning the national share of the vote and securing most seats and retaining power either from another coalition or maybe a minority government.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Pulpstar said:

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
    Move out to Thurrock Sunil, will be a kipper seat at next GE ^_~
    Tempting! Tempting! OTOH next-door Basildon is home town of my favourite band.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    AveryLP said:

    Has Richmond declared yet?

    Comrade Chancellor! Yes they have:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/councils/E09000027

    Tory up 9 to 39
    LD down 9 to 15
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited May 2014
    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have gained 7 on Dudley MBC.

    collecting slightly more votes than labour or the tories in the process by my calculations.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    So, the afternoon thread is going to be about Ed being crap.

    Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 17s

    And they're off. @JohnMannMP tells me: Labour had a tremendously ill-judged campaign, in particular the delib dec not to attack @UKIP

    A more interesting question is should UKIP have stood at all -- or have they shot their bolt on local elections that have sod all to do with Europe? The risk is they have a bunch of councillors who may prove erratic and *will* have views at odds with many of their voters. Ask Nick Clegg about that.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.

    Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.

    It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.

    Incorrect. 50 Seconds for UKIP will win me £50 off of Antifrank :D
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Has Richmond declared yet?

    Comrade Chancellor! Yes they have:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/councils/E09000027

    Tory up 9 to 39
    LD down 9 to 15
    Thank you, Comrade.

    And I wasn't even teasing the Senior.

    It was a genuine question.

    Dare I ask about Twickenham?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    edited May 2014

    So, the afternoon thread is going to be about Ed being crap.

    Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 17s

    And they're off. @JohnMannMP tells me: Labour had a tremendously ill-judged campaign, in particular the delib dec not to attack @UKIP

    A more interesting question is should UKIP have stood at all -- or have they shot their bolt on local elections that have sod all to do with Europe? The risk is they have a bunch of councillors who may prove erratic and *will* have views at odds with many of their voters. Ask Nick Clegg about that.
    I think UKIP (correctly) are following the Lib Dem strategy from the 90s.

    Get yourself elected to the council, build up a base of activists, then take the seat at the general election.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138

    Not sure that Ed will ever be PM, but I am also struggling to see why people are claiming this is a dismal performance by Labour. It strikes me as steady as she goes, with a few bright spots and a few worrisome spots. I don't see any results indicating that Labour will lose seats to anyone next year. And it seems likely that the party will make a decent number of gains. They won't win outright, but they are certainly in with a chance of being the biggest party.

    Its been a good night for Labour! Some good wins in some interesting places. In other Labour heartland places UKIP have made inroads - which for me is also a good thing as various Labour one party states are awful. And the main reason why its good is the rise and rise of UKIP - the more they score in Tory seats the better for Labour. And theyre doing very well.

    Remember, this is a 4 party election in a 4 party world. Comparisons to 3 party elections in a 3 party world are old hat - the challenge for both Labour and Tory hopes for the election is what impact the Kippers have on their chance of winning/retaining marginal seats. And my take on what I am seeing so far is that its better for us than the Blues. the "why haven't Labour hoovered up a bazillion seats" question seems silly - remember that the electorate hates all of us now.

    But in that anti-politics hate under FPTP we will still end up with either Labour or Tory as the government regardless of how poorly they do compared to past elections. We saw Blair have a decent majority on just 35% in 2005 - I think the "winning" party will do very well to clear 33% this time. Not that national % matters when it comes to seats.

    I agree with much of that - especially the four party bit. We don't know what Labour *should* be doing under that. If UKIP are a permanent part of the game comparisons with previous electoral cycles are pretty much pointless in terms of projecting what will happen next year from today's results.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The disparity between London and the rest of the country is really startling. Labour are apparently doing about as well in London as Blair in full pomp, while elsewhere it's below Kinnock/Foot levels.

    Made even more baffling by the fact London is supposed to be one of the few places where the economic recovery is actually happening. So much for "it's the economy stupid".
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pulpstar said:

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Splitter.
    Sunil means 'blue' but Redbridge council has been captured by the Reds!
    Move to somewhere with a Tory council.
    Move out to Thurrock Sunil, will be a kipper seat at next GE ^_~
    Tempting! Tempting! OTOH next-door Basildon is home town of my favourite band.
    That could have a Kipper MP too

    As could Hornchurch and Upminster!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Not sure that Ed will ever be PM, but I am also struggling to see why people are claiming this is a dismal performance by Labour. It strikes me as steady as she goes, with a few bright spots and a few worrisome spots. I don't see any results indicating that Labour will lose seats to anyone next year. And it seems likely that the party will make a decent number of gains. They won't win outright, but they are certainly in with a chance of being the biggest party.

    Its been a good night for Labour! Some good wins in some interesting places. In other Labour heartland places UKIP have made inroads - which for me is also a good thing as various Labour one party states are awful. And the main reason why its good is the rise and rise of UKIP - the more they score in Tory seats the better for Labour. And theyre doing very well.

    Remember, this is a 4 party election in a 4 party world. Comparisons to 3 party elections in a 3 party world are old hat - the challenge for both Labour and Tory hopes for the election is what impact the Kippers have on their chance of winning/retaining marginal seats. And my take on what I am seeing so far is that its better for us than the Blues. the "why haven't Labour hoovered up a bazillion seats" question seems silly - remember that the electorate hates all of us now.

    But in that anti-politics hate under FPTP we will still end up with either Labour or Tory as the government regardless of how poorly they do compared to past elections. We saw Blair have a decent majority on just 35% in 2005 - I think the "winning" party will do very well to clear 33% this time. Not that national % matters when it comes to seats.

    Yes. Some people seemed to have decided it was a bad night for Labour before the results came in. That includes a lot of Labour people.

    Steady as she goes is about right, with some eye-catching results down in here in the People's Republic of Londonium.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    Quick Question:

    Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?

    West Ham ?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.

    Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.

    It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.
    That's true, but the pattern appears to be that the Labour vote is down in its strong wards, even compared to 2008, largely because of the growth of UKIP.

    Potentially it puts a lot more seats in play at the next election, because the UKIP effect could be very variable.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP are getting around 25% of the vote in traditionally strong Labour wards in Exeter. Enough to put them second, but still some distance from winning councillors.

    Lots of strong seconds for UKIP. But with FPTP second gets you nothing.

    It will be interesting to see how UKIP approaches practical, council opposition to Labour in the places where it has emerged as the main challenger.

    Incorrect. 50 Seconds for UKIP will win me £50 off of Antifrank :D
    More interesting to see whether UKIP get the opportunity to go into coalition and govern at council level.

    For all the noise, there seem to be very few opportunities for them to show their capabilities.

    And it will have to be quick. Kipper councillors tend to have a very short half-life. You can't run
    a council from a prison cell!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    A downturn this morning for the Tories in Stephen Fisher's weekly projection of the 2015 GE outcome, based on UKPR's latest averaging of the polls.

    He now goes (with changes from last week) as follows:

    Con ......... 307 seats (-9)
    Lab .......... 284 seats (+10)
    LibDem ...... 31 seats (+1)
    Other .........28 seats (-2)

    Total ........ 650 seats

    I'm not sure how useful Fisher is. The genius of the model from its inventor's point of view is that it will never be wrong as he just tweaks it every so often, presumably he'll make the final tweaks a few days before the election.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Kirklees no seats changed hands at all Lab 10 Con 6 LD 5 Green 1 Ind 1
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Pulpstar said:

    Quick Question:

    Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?

    West Ham ?

    Millwall.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    UKIP apparently FOURTH in projected national share!

    Labour on 32%, Tories 28%.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Pulpstar said:

    Quick Question:

    Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?

    West Ham ?

    Millwall?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Danny565 said:

    The disparity between London and the rest of the country is really startling. Labour are apparently doing about as well in London as Blair in full pomp, while elsewhere it's below Kinnock/Foot levels.

    Made even more baffling by the fact London is supposed to be one of the few places where the economic recovery is actually happening. So much for "it's the economy stupid".

    It's immigration, Danny.

    Sunil did a series of interesting charts a couple of years ago.

    He may repost them if you ask nicely.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    LabourList ‏@LabourList 3s

    Lib Dems could have no councillors in Lambeth by the end of the day - they ran the council until 2006 #liveblog http://ow.ly/xbd2P
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481

    Pulpstar said:

    Quick Question:

    Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?

    West Ham ?

    Millwall?
    Actually thinking about it, wouldn't Millwall fans be more EDL, and Britain First than Kippers?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Dixie said:

    And why are Labour slagging off Ed's Euro campaign when they don't know the results? Again, I hate the Reds but give the weirdo a chance before you vilify him.

    Hate is a strong word.

    Labour have a long standing record of blaming the leadership for projected defeats. After all, who can remember Bob Marshall-Andrews laying into Brewers Court for his losing his seat, only to then be informed that he had held the seat...
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,490

    malcolmg said:


    You seem confused. The committee including cross party MSP's wrote the report and published it , that is democracy. It was not an SNP report.
    You are trying to conflate sour grapes with democracy and not painting a pretty picture.

    I know 'facts' aren't your strong suit.....

    Nationalist MSPs on a Holyrood committee examining the issue softened criticisms of the Scottish Government's stance in a major report to be published today, against the will of opposition members.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10850525/SNP-uses-majority-to-stifle-criticism-of-Alex-Salmonds-EU-membership-stance.html
    You do not seem to get the fact that a committee is made up of a number of members and the majority opinion is what is produced. Trying to say that because the minority parties did not get everything they wanted in the report as being suppression is laughable. Do you think the Tories do everything Nick Clegg tells them he wants, be serious. You have lost sight of reality with your hatred, I certainly do not expect David Cameron to implement SNP or Labour policies, why do you think it is sensible the other way round.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Pulpstar said:

    I voted Tory in the local election, and UKIP in the Euro election.

    Have your eyes swivelled yet, have you joined a golf club, bought a flat cap, been on a tour of London's pubs ?

    Bought the blazer and old school tie yet ;) ?
    Hmmm... not pubs, but as many of you know, I have been on a tour of every single London railway station - all 661 of them :)
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Quick Question:

    Which London football team probably has the most kipper voters in it's ranks ?

    West Ham ?

    Almost certainly

    Dagenham and Redbridge may have a similar % I reckon, but obviously not as many supporters

    Arsenal fans are poncy Labour types that dont know the offside rule in the main I reckon.. who didnt support them as a kid! (Myself being an exception!)

    EDIT: Milwall is another UKIP club I agree
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    So pleased for Lewis Herbert over in Cambridge as the city turns a nice shade of red.That one has been gestating for a few years now and is a victory for persistence and hard work.

    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Elections-2014-Labour-take-control-of-Cambridge-City-Council-20140523052655.htm
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    Lol I am so using this tweet in the next thread

    Michael Savage ‏@michaelsavage 34s

    I see the Guardian have a nice behind-the-scenes piece on Labour's strategy meeting this morning:

    pic.twitter.com/MV5lENadJJ
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: BBC vote share in 'key wards': Lab 32% Con 28% LD16% UKIP 15%. Lab only up 4% on 2010, and Lab actually 10% *down* on 2012.

    What is the change in the Tory vote in those wards since 2010? Given the Ukip surge, your data is meaningless without that figure...
This discussion has been closed.