politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and
Options
Comments
-
Maybe it has...AveryLP said:probably the worst as the centre left vote hasn't been split by competing parties.
0 -
What's up with Louth North?
A super terrible Lab result in 2009 or a terrible Con one today?0 -
It was a Con gain from Labour in 2009 . The LD hold in Dorset had been a LD gain from Labour in 2009SeanT said:
I'm no local election expert, but that looks like a good result for Labour, and a bad one for Tories. Dorset? TskMarkSenior said:Dorset Broadwey Labour gain from Con Lab 1037 Con 991 Green 438
2009 Con 1381 LD 672 Lab 633 Green 498
But where are the LDs??
0 -
Lincolnshire Scotter Rural Con Hold
UNDERWOOD-FROST, C. 42 % (717)
Conservative Down -17.3% HELD
PEARSON, C. 25 % (428)
UK Independence Party Up +25%
ROLLINGS, L.A 22.9 % (392)
Liberal Democrat Down -9.5%
INDIAN, J. 10.1 % (172)
Labour Up +1.7%
Electorate: 6168
Turnout: 1709 (27%)0 -
UKIP take West Lindsey in Lincs0
-
0
-
Con survives in - Bracebridge Heath and Waddington
Con 39.4 UKIP 34.6
0 -
You might be right, James. I might well have completely misjudged Labour's failure to capitalise, even in Northern seats, on government unpopularity at a time of unprecedented strain on the public finances, despite assistance from disgruntled left-leaning ex-LibDems.JamesKelly said:
Well under 55% for Labour.
I suspect I'm going to win this prediction contest, and I suspect you suspect the same.
If so, it's a quite remarkable development. This is South Shields!!
0 -
Emma Double-Surname has arrived at the count
Labour believe 50% for them and 26 for UKIP0 -
Labourlist
"Mark: Further to my last update, looks like the Lib Dems will be on 2% in South Shields – losing their deposit…"0 -
Much more romantic to report that Emma Double-Surname has arrived with the Count, Andrea.AndreaParma_82 said:Emma Double-Surname has arrived at the count
0 -
Lincolnshire Gainsborough Trent LD Hold
O'CONNOR, P 41.4 % (571)
Liberal Democrat Down 31% HELD
DE GAVRILAC, L. 27.4 % (378)
UK Independence Party Up 27.4%
HANRAHAN, J. 16.1 % (222)
Labour & Co-op Up 16.1%
PARRY, W.S.R 15.1 % (209)
Conservative Down 12.5%
Electorate: 7741
Turnout: 1380 (17%)
0 -
Will withdraw that - picked area not seat.0
-
"If so, it's a quite remarkable development. This is South Shields!!"
Oh for heaven's sake, man. Main opposition parties do have bad by-election results - but what doesn't tend to happen is that the government party is the beneficiary. If the Tories were anywhere even vaguely close in South Shields, then your "this is astonishing!" routine might be a bit more convincing.0 -
He was certainly permitted to interrupt and interject a great deal, and get second comments to get that opportunity. I think Dimbleby must have been enjoying seeing him draw the increasing ire of the panel, who had to strive to not look really pissed off.SeanT said:
Victoria Coren's remark about "the need for better creches in Bangladesh" will have to go down as one of the most ludicrously luvvie comments ever made on QT. Starkey was right to call her up on it.kle4 said:Hmm, much as I have no idea what to do about bus passes, some classic idiot logic from Victoria Coren from David Starkey talking about the need to look at welfare really hard. To paraphrase 'So you think cutting bas passes will solve the entire 120 billion pound mess' etc
The classic 'Your proposal does not solve the entire problem/I've found one instance of it not working therefore the entire idea of looking in that direction is pointless' argument. Good to see it's not just politicians who use that bit of pablum.
0 -
Count von Count?AveryLP said:
Much more romantic to report that Emma Double-Surname has arrived with the Count, Andrea.AndreaParma_82 said:Emma Double-Surname has arrived at the count
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=count+von+count&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=yPGCUcrqBeqG0AW764GwAg&ved=0CDoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=5380 -
Lincolnshire
Nettleham and Saxilby Con Gain From LD
BROCKWAY, J. 43.7 % (1218)
Conservative Up 9.7% GAIN
THOMPSON, H. 24.4 % (680)
UK Independence Party Up 24.4%
WHITE, A.M 21 % (586)
Liberal Democrat Down 39.5%
COOPLAND, R.A 10.9 % (305)
Labour Up 5.4%
Electorate: 8223
Turnout: 2789 (33%)
0 -
That's more like it. I'm on at 6/4 IIRC,tim said:Labour now predicting Ukip 26% in South Shields
0 -
A spitting image of Ed!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Count von Count?AveryLP said:
Much more romantic to report that Emma Double-Surname has arrived with the Count, Andrea.AndreaParma_82 said:Emma Double-Surname has arrived at the count
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=count+von+count&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=yPGCUcrqBeqG0AW764GwAg&ved=0CDoQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=5380 -
LDs down 31% in Gainsborough Trent.
But since they won 72% last time it didn't stop them winning again.0 -
Lincolnshire Donington Rural
Con Just Hold From UKIP
WRAY, S 38.7 % (770)
Conservative Down 33.1% HELD
DAVIS, T. 37.2 % (741)
UK Independence Party Up 37.2%
KING, J.L 15.1 % (301)
Lincolnshire Independents Up 15.1%
ROSS, S.L. 7.4 % (147)
Labour Down 3.1%
BISNAUTHSING, T 1.6 % (32)
Liberal Democrat Down 16.1%
Electorate: 6924
Turnout: 1991 (28%)
0 -
0
-
Dorset Portland Harbour Labour gain from Con ( con gain from Labour in 2009 )
Lodmoor LD hold0 -
I'm off, and I hope to see many more UKIP gains in the morning, so have fun everyone.
And I found myself almost enjoying Harriet Harman's opening on the NHS about no matter what facts or figures the Tories come out with about the NHS, she remembers the last time they were in control of it....and then I blanked out. Because you see Harriet, I don't remember that, and no-one, pro or con toward the Tories, tends to talk about it without being soul crushingly political, so I really have no idea what it was like so your point becomes lost on me. A good thing only older people vote in numbers, it probably played better with them.0 -
Just got in, SeanT (I think I may be the only person in all of London to leave the pub early to watch local election coverage but I'm already reconciled to being a geek). I stand by everything I have ever posted about Farage. Spending election day in a plane flying above your constituency isnt a sign of a sharp campaigning mind.SeanT said:Any remaining idiot pb-ers who underestimate Farage (neil?) should watch him on TW now.
0 -
Dorset Rodwell Labour gain from Con ( Con gain from Labour in 2009 )0
-
They are having fun at the count
https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/330097783774265345/photo/10 -
o/t what are the odds that the poster who appeared today to ramp (down!) UKIP expectations (only 200 people at a public meeting!!) ever posts again? Was it a reincarnation of Stuart Truth?0
-
Current vote shares in Lincolnshire after 12 declarations
Con 33% (-10.4%)
UKIP 20.2% (+17.6%)
Lab 19.1% (+7.8%)
LD 15.3% (-18.4%)
Other 12.2% (+3.2%)0 -
A great THIS WEEK on tonight. Farage in top form.0
-
Ringing endorsement for FPTP - UKIP 2nd largest party in Lincs on votes - 1 seat out of 13 elected.0
-
Evening all. All ready for the kipper surge
?! 0 -
Lab gain back from Con Hitchin North in Herts0
-
Lincolnshire Holbeach Con Hold (just)
WORTH, N. 44.8 % (979)
Conservative Down -18.6% HELD
FOYSTER, P.C 42 % (918)
UK Independence Party Up +42%
MAYHEW, D. 9.2 % (200)
Labour Up +0.8%
WEST, R.M.B 4 % (88)
British National Party Down -12.6%
Electorate: 7610
Turnout: 2185 (28%)
0 -
"Ringing endorsement for FPTP - UKIP 2nd largest party in Lincs on votes - 1 seat out of 13 elected."
To be fair, at least FPTP is the one antiquated thing about Britain that UKIP actually wants to change.0 -
LD below BNP!0
-
Dorset Weymouth Town Labour gain from LD
Lab 501 UKIP 475 LD 400 Con 379 Green 2410 -
That doesn't mean what SeanT said is untrue - Farage could be both a bit of a crap campaigner and even organizer, but his talents like elsewhere. UKIP needs a talented workhorse behind the scenes to fully exploit those talents with the electorate.Neil said:
Just got in, SeanT (I think I may be the only person in all of London to leave the pub early to watch local election coverage but I'm already reconciled to being a geek). I stand by everything I have ever posted about Farage. Spending election day in a plane flying above your constituency isnt a sign of a sharp campaigning mind.SeanT said:Any remaining idiot pb-ers who underestimate Farage (neil?) should watch him on TW now.
0 -
Lab 12,493
UKIP 5,988
Con 2,857
Khan 1,331
Ind socialist 750
BNP 711
LD 352
Loony 197
Ind 570 -
Libdems came 6th in South Shields....0
-
Pathetic. Dead in any Labour area for generations. People cannot defend it even on the basis that it doesn't matter where you finish in FPTP, because the idea is at some point you can build yourself to a point to challenge for a seat, and they have to start from scratch in every heavy Labour area of the country.smithersjones2013 said:LD below BNP!
0 -
Lab 12493AndreaParma_82 said:Lab 12,something
UKIP 5,988
Con 2,857
Khan 1,331
Ind socialist 750
BNP 711
LD 352
Loony 197
Ind 570 -
Nah, think you are being naive.SeanT said:
Oh please, you're not an idiot. Clarke's stupid "clown" remarks have now been thrown at Hague, and Cameron and every other Tory grandee. Prolonging the pain and intensifying the damage.kle4 said:
But if Clarke is already a chuntering fool, why are his comments so seriously taken as to be damaging? Because he's a minister without portfolio? We know from whenever an ex-Labour or ex-Tory minister attacks their current leadership that not being in the current governmental clique will not prevent their words being used by party opponents as if they were still in their heydey.SeanT said:
He should be sacked for the simple reason that comments like his - i.e. calling kippers "clowns" - are losing the next election for the Tories.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? Do we really want even more politicians to be can't tell them apart, refuses to say anything about anything, always PC, Oxford PPE, lawyerly yes-man?SeanT said:
But that's the damn point. His asinine abuse was aimed at the voters who are leaving the Tory party in droves - disaffected rightwingers. The Tory party, as I understand it, is not experiencing a loss in votes from homosexual europhile Notting Hill millionaires.kle4 said:
Ken Clarke has a majority in his constituency of 15,000, at a time when his views are wildly out of step with what appears to be the driving force of current conservatism in this country, so why should be bother retiring? His voters still like him a lot even if his party appears to have moved on.SeanT said:Ken Clarke should be sacked for calling Kippers clowns. It was just the most asinine, condescending bollocks.
And it was terrible politics. Way to insult 3m people.
Time to retire, Ken.
I suspect what you mean and would prefer is that he be retired from front line politics, which is not in his hands to decide (if they'll give you a job, why not take it?).Take it up with Cameron.
I also suspect had his asinine, condescending bollocks been directed at some other group, no-one on the right would have give two craps, and would be applauding his forthright views and vast experience right now.
Clarke is personally charming, I suppose (I never quite liked him as much as some others). But he has been a perverse, disruptive force in Tory politics for two decades, a man who always elevates his own opinions, even when they are clearly wrong, and have been proven wrong, over the interests of his party.
Yes: sack him. But do it nicely.
So Clarke is outspoken and speaks his mind? Good. He always has been and its refreshing to have someone like that rather than just yet another clone.
Send him to the backbenches where he can chunter away, and trot out his europhile shtick, somewhat less conspicuously. No one seeks to silence him, they just need to stop him damaging Conservative electoral prospects.
If he was just an old cigar-smoking pensioner on the backbenches no one would care, and his idiotic remarks would be ignored. However he remains a minister, and a perceived big beast, so his stupidities get traction.
Just look at the way David Blunkett or Charles Clarke or John Reid get thrown at the current Labour leadership.
Mischievous media mavens making their mark will disinter "Tory grandee" and "one nation Tory" Ken Clarke to be the voice of 'reasonable Conservativism' vs. the 'extremist' current leadership0 -
Labour moron omits customary vote of thanks, and can barely read her scripted speech....0
-
@MarkSenior
Is that in Dorset South - could we see a Lib Dem collapse and strong UKIP vote hand that constituency back to Labour?0 -
Oh dear!
Oh dear! Oh dear!
Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!0 -
Lab 50.5%
UKIP 24.2
Con 11.5
Khan 5.3
Soc 3
BNP 2.8
LD 1.7
Loony 0.8
Ind 0.20 -
It used to be St. Marylebone. Don't know what they did to lose that honour...SeanT said:
Marylebone High Street. lol. Is that the poshest election of the night?AndyJS said:Listen to the result of the Marylebone High Street by-election:
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/Marylebone High Street declaration.mp40 -
Neebody knaas whatits like heer in Sheels .. what with the bedroom tax an aal the uther .... I promise I won't let you down ... Y'know aam the first wumen that's ever been elected for South Sheels ..
As for meself, I'd select Karen Allen rather than that porky social worker with the really red lipstick ...0 -
Approx Vote Shares - South Shields
Lab 50.51%
UKIP 24.21%
Con 11.55%
Ind 5.38%
Ind socialist 3.03%
BNP 2.87%
LD 1.42%
Loony 0.80%
Ind 0.23%
I was wrong LD 7th
0 -
Don't friggin believe it: missed the result because I believed the prediction of 3am.0
-
Emma for Foreign Secretary now
Saved deposti for Khan.0 -
That's about a 19% swing from the Conservatives to UKIP. Which means...
*puts on Canadian accent*
It's another terrrr-ible night for the Conservatives.0 -
What's the turnout is South Shields?0
-
58% Postal Vote in South Shields0
-
1.4%? Unbelievable.0
-
Another near miss for UKIP in Lincolns
Market Rasen Wolds
KEIMACH, B. 31.7 % (573)
Conservative Down 19.1% HELD
RANBY, M.J 29.5 % (534)
UK Independence Party Up 29.5%
GRANGER, G.E.D 19.6 % (355)
Liberal Democrat Down 29.6%
GOODALL, L. 11 % (199)
Labour Up 11%
WISEMAN, G. 8.2 % (149)
Independent Up 8.2%
0 -
UKIP gain Basildon Westley Heights in first Essex declaration0
-
"Don't friggin believe it: missed the result because I believed the prediction of 3am."
That's how I felt when the Pope was elected.0 -
1983 46.5%AndreaParma_82 said:Lab 50.5%
UKIP 24.2
Con 11.5
Khan 5.3
Soc 3
BNP 2.8
LD 1.7
Loony 0.8
Ind 0.2
-----------------
2013 50.5%
-----------------
2010 52.0%
1964 55.1%
1951 56.0%
1974 56.4%
1950 56.5%
1979 57.1%
1987 57.9%
1959 58.0%
1945 59.4%
1955 59.6%
1992 59.8%
1970 60.2%
2005 60.5%
2001 63.2%
1966 64.7%
1997 71.4%
A disastrous performance by a disastrous candidate.
Second worse performance by Labour since WWII.
0 -
Using the Middlesbrough by-election result I predicted a Labour vote of 12,622 in South Shields. They actually received 12,493.0
-
I make it a 4.3% swing to Labour. (paltry by historical standards)
The 1.4% for the LDs is one of the lowest for a major party on record, and their lowest share in a by-election since 1948.0 -
Another near miss for UKIP in Lincolns
This time in Spalding West
Ind gain from Con who droped to third0 -
Avery...er...where is 2010 on your list?0
-
Dorset Portland Tophill Labour gain from Ind
Lab 460 UKIP 418 Ind 356 Con 222 LD 138 Green 640 -
Priti Patel's father gets second place in Bushey South with 15.3%.0
-
"We earned them votes tonight" ... perfect Layba gramma.0
-
0
-
Lincolnshire Spalding West - Independent Gain from Con
NEWTON, A.M 36.9 % (866)
Lincolnshire Independents Up 36.9% GAIN
SHEFFIELD, J. 33.3 % (782)
UK Independence Party Up 33.3%
JOHNSON, H.R 21.5 % (506)
Conservative Down 23.9%
OSBORN, K.M 6.5 % (153)
Labour Down 1.6%
Electorate: 8488
Turnout: 2349 (27%)
0 -
Now, now Neil. I hope you realise that Seth O Logue's hilarious Romney ramping was second only to stuarttruth for comedy value. Good to see he's turned over a new leaf with no more incompetent attempts at expectations management.Neil said:o/t what are the odds that the poster who appeared today to ramp (down!) UKIP expectations (only 200 people at a public meeting!!) ever posts again? Was it a reincarnation of Stuart Truth?
0 -
First Lincoln City division declared...
Lab 40.5% + 16
Con 27.3 -15.8
UKIP 23.2 from nowhere
LD 6.8 -12.8
TUSC 2.20 -
Grandiose, yes I know, I was being facetious because Avery seems to have had a memory lapse.0
-
Lincoln North Lab Gain From Con
RENSHAW, J. 46.6 % (964)
Labour Up 11.1% GAIN
WILLIAMS, A. 24.5 % (506)
Conservative Down 16.6%
WHITE, L.S 22.6 % (467)
UK Independence Party Up 22.6%
THOMAS, E.C 4 % (82)
Liberal Democrat Down 19.3%
WOODHALL, E.J 2.3 % (48)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.3%
Electorate: 7703
Turnout: 2067 (26%)
0 -
0
-
Just Can't Get Enough!AndreaParma_82 said:UKIP gain Basildon Westley Heights in first Essex declaration
0 -
Lincoln Glebe Lab Gain From Con
MURRAY, N 40.5 % (628)
Labour Up 16% GAIN
RIDDICK, M 27.3 % (424)
Conservative Down 15.8%
SMITH, M.D 23.2 % (360)
UK Independence Party Up 23.2%
HARDING-PRICE, D 6.8 % (106)
Liberal Democrat Down 12.2%
MUMBY, S. 2.2 % (34)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 2.2%
Electorate: 6764
Turnout: 1552 (22%)
0 -
0
-
Nice for my betsAveryLP said:
1983 46.5%AndreaParma_82 said:Lab 50.5%
UKIP 24.2
Con 11.5
Khan 5.3
Soc 3
BNP 2.8
LD 1.7
Loony 0.8
Ind 0.2
-----------------
2013 50.5%
-----------------
2010 52.0%
1964 55.1%
1951 56.0%
1974 56.4%
1950 56.5%
1979 57.1%
1987 57.9%
1959 58.0%
1945 59.4%
1955 59.6%
1992 59.8%
1970 60.2%
2005 60.5%
2001 63.2%
1966 64.7%
1997 71.4%
A disastrous performance by a disastrous candidate.
Second worse performance by Labour since WWII.
0 -
The Tories can afford to lose 23 seats in Lincolnshire, but they've already lost quite a few.0
-
Lincoln East Lab Gain From Con
RENSHAW, R.A 44.3 % (634)
Labour Up 10% GAIN
BARHAM, M. 23.2 % (332)
Conservative Down 15.8%
WARDE, E.E 20.4 % (292)
UK Independence Party Up 20.4%
HARDING-PRICE, C.M 6.7 % (96)
Liberal Democrat Down 20%
PARKER, N. 5.3 % (76)
Trade Unionists & Socialist Against Cuts Up 5.3%
Electorate: 6346
Turnout: 1430 (22%)
0 -
LD votes to Labour and Labour votes to Ukip
or just
LD votes to Ukip
or
just confused0 -
How come Lincolnshire is declaring first when it's one of the most remote and largest counties?0
-
Leicestershire should be interesting as a bellwhether county - Ukip standing in what seem to be targeted wards - i.e, not mine, Loughborough East which is a fourway between Labour who will win it, LibDem, Conservative and some knobbers standing in some other wards, whose name I can't recall: Trade Union/Socialists for Boredom or whatever, a couple of hundred votes here and there from a few people in purple cord, which I doubt will make a lot of difference. Seem to be declaring tomorrow. From a betting point of view forwards, the Ukip results will be interesting... Don't know if they intend to stand in 2015 and that would throw the game open - local MP Vicki Morgan is very impressive but it wouldn't take much to dislodge her. Labour likely cnadidate looks worthy but dull and local machine these days not impressive - Morgan and co ran them off the road very effectively last go round and their incumbent was a well-liked Labour man. Re tonight: Conservatives defending - I would expect them to take a hit but for them to retain overall control. But this is an odd election...0
-
Yes, this is an appalling result for Labour. We have a Tory-led government delivering an age of austerity, the only other Leftist party is also in government and Labour get their worst ever result in their spiritual home. Labour should have been notching up 75% minimum at this stage. Miliband is lucky UKIP were about to get the disaffected Labour vote - otherwise the Tories could have been snapping at Labour's heels!AveryLP said:
1983 46.5%AndreaParma_82 said:Lab 50.5%
UKIP 24.2
Con 11.5
Khan 5.3
Soc 3
BNP 2.8
LD 1.7
Loony 0.8
Ind 0.2
2013 50.5%0 -
"Miliband is lucky UKIP were about to get the disaffected Labour vote - otherwise the Tories could have been snapping at Labour's heels!"
And in other news, Jeffrey Archer could still be Prime Minister one day.0 -
At least Clegg can hold his head high and placate the nervous lib dem activists and MPs by proudly proclaiming "We beat the monster raving loony candidate!" Stirring stuff indeed.0
-
Another UKIP gain in Essex...... Rayleigh South0
-
The only good thing you can say for the Lib Dems in S Shields is that they beat the MRLP. Imagine the headlines if they hadn't!0
-
UKIP win another Lincs seat in Boston Coastal0
-
Lincolshire Boston Coastal UKIP Gain From Con
RANSOME, F.E.E 45.8 % (826)
UK Independence Party Up 20.6% GAIN
BEDFORD, P 40.4 % (730)
Conservative Down 14.6%
GLEESON, P.M 13.8 % (249)
Labour Up 4.1%
Electorate: 5796
Turnout: 1805 (31%)
0 -
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage
66% turnout in South Shields is postal voting. It is a total disgrace: postal votes must be scrapped.
Despite this handicap @UKIP has gone from 0% to 24%0 -
From the point of view of running a Council I would expect losses to UKIP are much easier for the Tories to bear than losses to Labour.AndyJS said:The Tories can afford to lose 23 seats in Lincolnshire, but they've already lost quite a few.
It is a different matter nationally of course.
0 -
"Clegg in Seventh Heaven as Libs Lick Lousy Loony"0
-
Essex .....2 Lib Dem holds in Chelmsford,0
-
Borehamwood North
Old Stevenage
Broadwater
St Nicholas
gained by Lab in Herts. All exepected gains.0 -
Must you ignore the sage advice of Seth O Logue? As he would be first to tell you (his humble and self-effacing demeanor prevents it) Seth thinks Andrew Lansley could still be Prime Minister one day.JamesKelly said:And in other news, Jeffrey Archer could still be Prime Minister one day.
0 -
While that is true, past performances have not been that different:SeanT said:The Greens never came second in a euro election.
Green vote share in 1989 Euros - 15% (3rd place in a FPTP election)
UKIP vote share in 2009 Euros - 16.5% (2nd place in a PR election)
My best guess (but it's difficult to tell and this stage so I could well be wrong) is that the Greens will finish the night / tomorrow with more councillors across the UK than UKIP.0 -
'RANSOME, F.E.E 45.8 % (826)
UK Independence Party Up 20.6% GAIN'
Is that the guy's name? No, Ken Clarke had no case at all.0 -
Well, must to bed away. Will be up with the lark to what seems to be a small turning point in British political history since the war.0
This discussion has been closed.