politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In other news Starmer moves to a net 24% lead over Johnson in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In other news Starmer moves to a net 24% lead over Johnson in latest Opinium approval ratings
The latest Opinium poll carried out before the Cummings lockdown affair came out overnight and the big change has been in the approval ratings of the PM and LOTO. The charts above show the recent trends.
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I was hoping for a 6th successive Dom themed header.
Mind you, I expect the next iteration of this poll will be pretty Dom themed, and not in a good way.0 -
It says "no comments" so I guess I'd better not make one.0
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In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.1
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And for Boris it's all downhill from here.0
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Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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Not a very astute tweet, really. He’s saying things need to change because they’re damaging the government. Which of course is the calculation most of them will make, but it would have been more sensible to say that in the national interest at this time of emergency, improvements are needed.Scott_xP said:0 -
As long as it’s about the A4 not the A1, he’s safe enough.Scott_xP said:0 -
But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.IshmaelZ said:
Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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Locking a child in a car for several hours with two coronavirus-carrying parents seems an odd way of going about things, especially if the intention is to hand him over his grandparents for whom covid-19 is more likely to be fatal.
So if Cummings is rational but not wholly truthful, maybe the more obvious explanation is that he thought the green fields of somewhere near Durham a better place to self-isolate for weeks or months than a terraced house in inner London.
Like lots of other people with two or more homes, for instance, other Cabinet members and politicians generally. If I were CCHQ I'd ask a tame journalist to find out where the Shadow Cabinet is holed up. After doing the same for the blue team. Perhaps an enterprising hack might even compare these with MPs' designated first homes on their mortgage and expense claims.1 -
To be fair on Shapps, at least he hasn't gone into self isolation, like the rest of the cabinet including the PM.Scott_xP said:
He is doing the Barry Gardiner job of defending the indefensible.0 -
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Depends whom it is addressed to. Boris might pay more attention to "damages the government" than to "harms the national interest".ydoethur said:
Not a very astute tweet, really. He’s saying things need to change because they’re damaging the government. Which of course is the calculation most of them will make, but it would have been more sensible to say that in the national interest at this time of emergency, improvements are needed.Scott_xP said:0 -
Well, of course he did. So would anyone have preferred to.DecrepiterJohnL said:
So if Cummings is rational but not wholly truthful, maybe the more obvious explanation is that he thought the green fields of somewhere near Durham a better place to self-isolate for weeks or months than a terraced house in inner London.
The problem is that you’re not allowed to do that, and certainly not when one person in the group is spewing virus everywhere.2 -
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Labour’s shadow policing spokesperson getting into a bit of a tangle trying to say Cummings should resign without actually saying it out loud.0
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I do wonder if he was ever ill at all, I am beginning to doubt it, and think because of underlying health conditions he felt safer in Durham. Human nature, but the right thing to do would then have been resign or take a sabbatical based on being high risk.ydoethur said:
Well, of course he did. So would anyone have preferred to.DecrepiterJohnL said:
So if Cummings is rational but not wholly truthful, maybe the more obvious explanation is that he thought the green fields of somewhere near Durham a better place to self-isolate for weeks or months than a terraced house in inner London.
The problem is that you’re not allowed to do that, and certainly not when one person in the group is spewing virus everywhere.0 -
Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker is the only tory MP I would not piss on if he were allergic to piss.Scott_xP said:0 -
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That book is actually a hymn to Brexitry throughout. "The Scouring of the Shire" is an uncomfortable chapter heading now that "ethnic cleansing" has entered the language.ydoethur said:
But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.IshmaelZ said:
Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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It’s also a hammering of the Socialists.IshmaelZ said:
That book is actually a hymn to Brexitry throughout. "The Scouring of the Shire" is an uncomfortable chapter heading now that "ethnic cleansing" has entered the language.ydoethur said:
But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.IshmaelZ said:
Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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The timing of this is interesting
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1264460021557051393
Despite having a majority of 80, BoZo is weak, and potentially now rudderless.
I do think they fear the entire edifice will collapse.0 -
JRM is lucky the virtual Parliament vote was last week
After this I suspect MPs would have told him to piss off, "for the kids"...0 -
The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.0
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As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
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There will be cctv, anpr and mobile phone records so should be trivial to prove or disprove.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
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Do you think you said thst because you are a diehard remainer who would do or say anything to damage Boris...Scott_xP said:The timing of this is interesting
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1264460021557051393
Despite having a majority of 80, BoZo is weak, and potentially now rudderless.
I do think they fear the entire edifice will collapse.1 -
If he is telling the truth, it shouldn't be hard for him to take up the simple sword of truth and prove it from his phone's location on the day in question.ydoethur said:
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
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??? On street parking is free and the car park by Morrisons and behind the high street / Witham charges but it's a council car park with dumb ticket machinesydoethur said:
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
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Perhaps the trauma will see him retreat into one of his multiple personalities. "Andrew, this is Michael Green. Grant was feeling very sad this morning and he couldn't make it out of bed."Scott_xP said:1 -
Shapps just needs to keep denying that the second trip and the Barnard Castle excursion never took place despite any evidence to the contrary. We are now in a post facts era so it probably won't matter that much.Foxy said:
To be fair on Shapps, at least he hasn't gone into self isolation, like the rest of the cabinet including the PM.Scott_xP said:
He is doing the Barry Gardiner job of defending the indefensible.0 -
Really? That’s interesting. I had a terrible time trying to find a place to park when I was last there.eek said:
??? On street parking is free and the car park by Morrisons and behind the high street / Witham charges but it's a council car park with dumb ticket machinesydoethur said:
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
Admittedly, that was in tourist season.0 -
Despite him having few supporters on here, especially amongst former remain voters, I have a bit of time for Steve Baker. As I remember it, nothing he did during the Brexit process was dishonest, incompetent or disloyal, he just had an opinion I strongly disagree with on no deal Brexit and argued for it. The same cant be said for JRM, Boris, Davis, Raab, Francois etcScott_xP said:2 -
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Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).0 -
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The issue is that the car parks are hidden unless you know where they are you really won't spot them.ydoethur said:
Really? That’s interesting. I had a terrible time trying to find a place to park when I was last there.eek said:
??? On street parking is free and the car park by Morrisons and behind the high street / Witham charges but it's a council car park with dumb ticket machinesydoethur said:
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
Admittedly, that was in tourist season.
I find it easier when directing visitors to just go to the Bowes museum first as they are easier to spot on the way back out.0 -
Sunak?ydoethur said:
But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.IshmaelZ said:
Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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I doubt it. As I posted earlier today for Boris it's all downhill from here.squareroot2 said:
Do you think you said thst because you are a diehard remainer who would do or say anything to damage Boris...Scott_xP said:The timing of this is interesting
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1264460021557051393
Despite having a majority of 80, BoZo is weak, and potentially now rudderless.
I do think they fear the entire edifice will collapse.0 -
Its not just the story it probably ends hopes of schools re-opening in June (or at least opened with many more children in them).Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Parents will simply do "what is best for their kids" in their opinion and the government wont dare push them.0 -
Its all downhill for any PM or for that mstter any political.career. they all end up gone and largely forgotten.eek said:
I doubt it. As I posted earlier today for Boris it's all downhill from here.squareroot2 said:
Do you think you said thst because you are a diehard remainer who would do or say anything to damage Boris...Scott_xP said:The timing of this is interesting
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1264460021557051393
Despite having a majority of 80, BoZo is weak, and potentially now rudderless.
I do think they fear the entire edifice will collapse.0 -
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Priti for Lobelia Sackville-Baggins.Mexicanpete said:
Sunak?ydoethur said:
But there’s no Sam. None of them are in any way wise.IshmaelZ said:
Cummings is Dollum to Boris's Frodo.El_Capitano said:In which Johnson's government is thrown into the cracks of Mount Dom.
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Morning all,
Thankfully we have a PM-in-waiting as this government slowly disintegrates over next year or so.2 -
Good morning, everyone.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.2 -
Baker on.
Popcorn on standby...0 -
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I'd decided on 6/4 as the value price so have stayed out so far, though things may change as politicians wake up, read the papers and watch Marr. (ETA I've already backed Dom to go.)Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Looking at things from the other end, what actual value is Cummings adding right now? He's been involved in the pandemic response but most observers agree that has been a bit of a shambles and we are near the top of the covid-19 league tables. If Cummings is not doing anything useful, just shunt him sideways or kick him upstairs to be founding head of UKARPA or suchlike.0 -
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.0 -
At least with them resigning it saves the hassle of firing Cummings sycophantsScott_xP said:0 -
You would not think this Government had just won an 80 seat majority.1
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Blimey.
When Steve Baker sounds almost reasonable on a subject, there’s something very wrong somewhere.0 -
I think the government are more interested in pressing teachers than parents at this point, but that's fair enough.noneoftheabove said:
Its not just the story it probably ends hopes of schools re-opening in June (or at least opened with many more children in them).Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Parents will simply do "what is best for their kids" in their opinion and the government wont dare push them.
In a list of stories the government would prefer everyone to be talking about this morning, SKS sending his own children to school while arguing that everyone else shouldn't have that choice is probably towards the top.0 -
+1 - given that it's one rule for those in power and another for those not in power a lot of people are going to completely ignore what the old advice was ans do what's best in their opinion.noneoftheabove said:
Its not just the story it probably ends hopes of schools re-opening in June (or at least opened with many more children in them).Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Parents will simply do "what is best for their kids" in their opinion and the government wont dare push them.
Which means one lot of people are going to want all their children in school and others won't want any there.0 -
This is another reason why the Cummings story matters -
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They havent ..it was nearly 6 months ago..there has been a medical disaster not seen of its ilk for 100 years ..do.keep.up...CorrectHorseBattery said:You would not think this Government had just won an 80 seat majority.
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Now we know what they were all doing during the 12 hours of silence after Mirror/Guardian broke the story.Scott_xP said:2 -
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Well, he has certainly gone up in my estimation over this issue.noneoftheabove said:
Despite him having few supporters on here, especially amongst former remain voters, I have a bit of time for Steve Baker. As I remember it, nothing he did during the Brexit process was dishonest, incompetent or disloyal, he just had an opinion I strongly disagree with on no deal Brexit and argued for it. The same cant be said for JRM, Boris, Davis, Raab, Francois etcScott_xP said:2 -
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Sunak?IshmaelZ said:
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.0 -
Indeed. You reap what you sow. If the MSM is as irrelevant as Cummings thinks, this will go away. If not, then it won’t.Scott_xP said:0 -
This Government can't even competently manage one of their own team, how on Earth do they intend to negotiate a Brexit deal that isn't shit0
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Leicester Council car parking ticket machines are switched off, presumably for Covid-19 reasons. I parked for free on Vicky Park the other day.eek said:
??? On street parking is free and the car park by Morrisons and behind the high street / Witham charges but it's a council car park with dumb ticket machinesydoethur said:
As I recall, parking is a bugger in Barnard Castle. I wonder where he parked and how he paid.MikeSmithson said:The danger for Dom is if more hard evidence comes out to back up the claims that he was in Barnard Castle. Surely there must be some CCTV footage somewhere to back up the allegation.
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A lot of teachers have children in year groups that aren't going back to school - that is a perfect excuse for them to be militant.Sandpit said:
I think the government are more interested in pressing teachers than parents at this point, but that's fair enough.noneoftheabove said:
Its not just the story it probably ends hopes of schools re-opening in June (or at least opened with many more children in them).Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Parents will simply do "what is best for their kids" in their opinion and the government wont dare push them.
In a list of stories the government would prefer everyone to be talking about this morning, SKS sending his own children to school while arguing that everyone else shouldn't have that choice is probably towards the top.0 -
Shapps looks sick.
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Very young.Mexicanpete said:
Sunak?IshmaelZ said:
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.0 -
I think he is always polite, which is a very good starter, and genuinely polite unlike JRM who is rude with a mask of great politeness.rottenborough said:
Well, he has certainly gone up in my estimation over this issue.noneoftheabove said:
Despite him having few supporters on here, especially amongst former remain voters, I have a bit of time for Steve Baker. As I remember it, nothing he did during the Brexit process was dishonest, incompetent or disloyal, he just had an opinion I strongly disagree with on no deal Brexit and argued for it. The same cant be said for JRM, Boris, Davis, Raab, Francois etcScott_xP said:3 -
Shapps has apparently run out of macassar oil for his wig. The crises just keep coming for the government.0
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Somebody said that he didn’t crash his car on the way to Durham.
I am watching Grant Shapps.
I can confirm there is now a car crash involved.
He has just said that if you are ill you should self isolate where you are.
And therefore he has just admitted Cummings broke the law...
Edit. - now he’s saying he can’t even answer questions when he’s been given the questions in advance because he doesn’t know the answers?2 -
Be kind to everyone on the way up; you'll meet the same people on the way down.
Dom's Rasputin moment coming up.0 -
Of course if Johnson sacks Cummings now he just reinforces the idea he follows, rather than leads.
"Weak, weak, weak"1 -
With hindsight I should have taken some of the 3/1 on him going, that was available yesterday. But hindsight in betting is a wonderful thing!DecrepiterJohnL said:
I'd decided on 6/4 as the value price so have stayed out so far, though things may change as politicians wake up, read the papers and watch Marr. (ETA I've already backed Dom to go.)Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Looking at things from the other end, what actual value is Cummings adding right now? He's been involved in the pandemic response but most observers agree that has been a bit of a shambles and we are near the top of the covid-19 league tables. If Cummings is not doing anything useful, just shunt him sideways or kick him upstairs to be founding head of UKARPA or suchlike.
The reason for the PM standing by Cummings, is that the advisor is the architect of a lot of the reforms the government were planning for this year. Top of the list being a very unpopular (with those affected) turning upside-down of the senior civil service and standing bureaucracy/quangocracy. This article from yesterday gives an idea of what the PM and DC are thinking:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/22/covid-proves-urgently-need-new-quango-bonfire-starting-public/0 -
Shapps claiming he doesn't know the dates and details of Cummings.
Unbelievable.
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William Pitt The Younger?IshmaelZ said:
Very young.Mexicanpete said:
Sunak?IshmaelZ said:
But not somebody else from the current cabinet, is the point.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Instead of worrying about the PM going, perhaps the Cabinet should be welcoming such an eventuality.
Boris Johnson isn't up to the job. From a party political perspective, as well as a national one, the Conservatives are better off with someone else.0 -
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The only realistic way to open schools is to make attendance voluntary. It would help with class sizes too.eek said:
+1 - given that it's one rule for those in power and another for those not in power a lot of people are going to completely ignore what the old advice was ans do what's best in their opinion.noneoftheabove said:
Its not just the story it probably ends hopes of schools re-opening in June (or at least opened with many more children in them).Sandpit said:Just taken some of the evens on Cummings lasting out the month.
Unlike most PMs and advisors, I'm not too sure that either Boris or Dominic give a rat's arse that the advisor is the story - and the DC story's doing a great job of keeping the press pack engaged in trivialities.
(The assumption there is that the advisor has been totally honest with the PM - if that's not the case and it comes out, he'll be the proverbial cooked bread).
Parents will simply do "what is best for their kids" in their opinion and the government wont dare push them.
Which means one lot of people are going to want all their children in school and others won't want any there.2
