We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening. I went out for my daily exercise and shop today and it was almost like a normal weekend day in the sun in this part of NW London.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
That was featuring as a slide in the press briefing, did they not show it again today?
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening. I went out for my daily exercise and shop today and it was almost like a normal weekend day in the sun in this part of NW London.
As someone who cycles and jogs a bit, it is distressing that while cyclers and joggers do get some unearned crap, they do still earn plenty of the crap they get. Something about both activities that turns those doing the activity and those interacting with them into arseholes.
Its observation bias. The arsehole cyclists/joggers (of which there are too many) are the ones that you remember. The decent ones (which are probably a majority to be fair) get forgotten about as moot.
If I'm going through a set of traffic lights I don't think about the cyclist respecting the lights. I do think about the idiots that don't think the red light applied to them.
On the way to my daughters school there is a crossroads. The number of cyclists who think it is ok to shoot through red lights at speed when hordes of kids are trying to cross always amazes me
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That consistency is a encouraging sign, The rate of increase is steady, if not falling slightly, and shows much the same pattern as Italy did at this stage. That is what is important. It will plateau (it could be said to be doing so already) that and then start falling. And we have not had today’s figures yet.
It just reflects the fact that the number of people tested is nearly the same every day!
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
I am fairly sure its been said, but that's not the infection rate.
At most, its a ca. 5-7 day lag on something that might be related to the infection rate.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
Vodka, Malc? Take it that's a translation, or the local SNP Committee will be taking action.
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
Handy that you are at such a high latitude. In the winter, at least.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
That was featuring as a slide in the press briefing, did they not show it again today?
Up 34% since last week but down 0.5% in the last 24 hours I thought it said?
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Not the first time he has spouted incorrect figures for Sweden
I was looking at the worldometer numbers for Sweden yesterday. Someone a couple of weeks ago made a comparison between Sweden and Portugal as they are very close to each other in terms of population.
Sweden now has (or had yesterday) almost twice the number of deaths per million people compared to Portugal. Actually just went and checked and today it is exactly double.
86 deaths per million people in Sweden 43 deaths per million people in Portugal.
Although interestingly Portugal has over 60% higher number of detected cases.
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Still wrong to sack people for this no matter how obnoxious their comments are. I can understand the union wanting to distance themselves and probably some sort of punishment but taking away someone's livelihood for speaking their minds just seems wrong to me. Same with the idiot Mayor the other day. Right to sack her from her political opposition where she is supposed to be representing her whole community but wrong to sack her from her job as well.
I doubt Toby sees it this way though. Courage of convictions doesn't seem to be one of his strong points.
Given the RMT bang on about safety, I don't think it's acceptable for their leader to make such a comment.
The slides on hospital admissions and admissions to ICU units shows that both have declined over the last 24h (2% and 0.5%) - that's (I think) the first time we've seen declines in both. Certainly better than massive rises... let's hope it starts to form a trend over the next few days.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Not the first time he has spouted incorrect figures for Sweden
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
That was featuring as a slide in the press briefing, did they not show it again today?
Do you mean the slide showing the number of people in hospital?
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Still wrong to sack people for this no matter how obnoxious their comments are. I can understand the union wanting to distance themselves and probably some sort of punishment but taking away someone's livelihood for speaking their minds just seems wrong to me. Same with the idiot Mayor the other day. Right to sack her from her political opposition where she is supposed to be representing her whole community but wrong to sack her from her job as well.
I doubt Toby sees it this way though. Courage of convictions doesn't seem to be one of his strong points.
Given the RMT bang on about safety, I don't think it's acceptable for their leader to make such a comment.
In both cases keeping the person brings the organisation they work for into disrepute.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
That was featuring as a slide in the press briefing, did they not show it again today?
Do you mean the slide showing the number of people in hospital?
Ah, yes, I now remember the confusion over what that plot was showing.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening. I went out for my daily exercise and shop today and it was almost like a normal weekend day in the sun in this part of NW London.
Then the lockdown will continue.
But it's not a proper lockdown. It's an economic lockdown, not a population lockdown.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
Vodka, Malc? Take it that's a translation, or the local SNP Committee will be taking action.
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
See what you mean; whisky drinking needs rain. Actually, IME, gin is better in the sun. Mrs C is drinking G&T in the sunshine as I write! How's Mrs Malc coming along?
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That consistency is a encouraging sign, The rate of increase is steady, if not falling slightly, and shows much the same pattern as Italy did at this stage. That is what is important. It will plateau (it could be said to be doing so already) that and then start falling. And we have not had today’s figures yet.
It just reflects the fact that the number of people tested is nearly the same every day!
The yellow line is the most relevant answer to what Max is saying.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Not the first time he has spouted incorrect figures for Sweden
I was looking at the worldometer numbers for Sweden yesterday. Someone a couple of weeks ago made a comparison between Sweden and Portugal as they are very close to each other in terms of population.
Sweden now has (or had yesterday) almost twice the number of deaths per million people compared to Portugal. Actually just went and checked and today it is exactly double.
86 deaths per million people in Sweden 43 deaths per million people in Portugal.
Although interestingly Portugal has over 60% higher number of detected cases.
I'm taking all COVID-19 statistics with a huge pinch of salt.
That must include a backlog from Scotland I think, which should really have been allocated to the last few days.
missing the huge backlog from England as well. PS: Scotland was only around 40
You really do take any comment about Scotland by anyone not from Scotland far too personally.
Scotland changed the way it recorded cases recently, which led to a couple of days where only 2 deaths were recorded. This has led to artificially high numbers of cases due to the change over the past couple of days. Indeed, the First Minister clearly explained this...
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Funny, Tobes seem to think him being pushed out of his education post 'cos of him exercising free speech as persecution rather than a demonstration of freedom.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That will mostly be more testing, not necessarily more infections, (it could also be both)
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
“ At the end of last week, the Prime Minister was beginning to wonder if the country was taking his advice too much to heart. He asked us to stay at home - and we have. At each daily press conference, medical and scientific advisers talk about the plunge in use of transport and how well rules are being observed. What they don’t say is that this was not quite in their original plan. Government modellers didn’t expect such obedience: the expected workers to carry on and at least a million pupils to be left in school by parents.”
The government's terrible response and plans for a #ToryGenocide can be identified through the fact that all their advice and supporting data is open access.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
Its still rising I believe, its the rate of increase that we need to look at, once it hits zero rate of increase that's one milestone. Next milestone of reducing significantly so we have notably more recoveries going out than coming in, ie we have capacity.
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
Longer surely? Those reported as deaths today died on average several days ago and would have been infected weeks before that. So we're talking back in early March and possibly into February.
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Funny, Tobes seem to think him being pushed out of his education post 'cos of him exercising free speech as persecution rather than a demonstration of freedom.
FWIW I thought Young was treated harshly, but that's life. I'd note that Young was sacked for talking about ideas, whilst the union boss has gone for talking about a person.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That consistency is a encouraging sign, The rate of increase is steady, if not falling slightly, and shows much the same pattern as Italy did at this stage. That is what is important. It will plateau (it could be said to be doing so already) that and then start falling. And we have not had today’s figures yet.
It just reflects the fact that the number of people tested is nearly the same every day!
The yellow line is the most relevant answer to what Max is saying.
That's what I'm saying. The rate of positive tests is around 40%, with some fluctuations from day to day. So the number of positive tests is about 40% of the number of people tested. And the number of people tested is almost the same every day. Ergo the number of positive tests is about the same every day.
Do you see how that doesn't tell us anything about the number of new cases, which is 50-100 times larger?
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
You keep spouting this bollocks and you keep on being told with evidence that you are wrong
we won't know the impacts of the various responses for years. any one claiming sweden, korea, singapore, USA, China, Germany, Norway as 'proving' anything either way right now are talking nonsense.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
Yes, I fear you may be correct, with the caveat that it is still too soon to be sure of the effect of our half-hearted lockdown. I have always advocated an immediate, full lockdown, perhaps enforced by the army, as the best option. This would hopefully have had a rapid effect in stifling the spread of the disease, and by now we could have been starting to relax the lockdown. Instead, though, we may have, as you say, the worst of both worlds: a never-ending, economy-destroying semi-lockdown that grinds down our patience and fails to contain the virus.
You haven't enough data to make that pessimistic analysis. Hospital deaths and (probably) hospital admissions testing positive for the virus are the two most reliable statistics. They are subsets of total cases in population not tested and deaths from the virus outside hospital respectively. The deaths figure includes those dying from something else but with the virus (a lot of controversy over how large that is) but that doesn't matter for the sake of looking at trends and lock down effect. A big unknown is average time from exposure to symptoms to hospital but there must be a significant lag. The indicators appear to be flattening (rate not increasing much, maybe not increasing at all) and that is quite an optimistic sign.
Have we really ended up with yet more idiotic questions
I would not give anyone a comeback question
I stopped watching the briefings days ago because of this (had a quick look again yesterday and soon regretted it). Please update on here if anything interesting comes out of it, I can't bear the BBC's innane Live feed either.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
Its still rising I believe, its the rate of increase that we need to look at, once it hits zero rate of increase that's one milestone. Next milestone of reducing significantly so we have notably more recoveries going out than coming in, ie we have capacity.
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
It decreased today. Hope this is start of a trend...
The government's terrible response and plans for a #ToryGenocide can be identified through the fact that all their advice and supporting data is open access.
-_-
One... aquaintance accused me of being "brutal", by sending her links to the various published government documents.
Apparently providing people with links to information is the new brutal.
Bit like the "new fascism" was advocating free elections in Poland in the 1980s.
Lombardy (Italy) will have a special commission investigating the management of the crisis in nursery elderly homes. On a sample of 164 out of 677 Lombardia nursery homes, 1,822 deaths were reported from 1 February to 6 April 60 of them had a positive test for Covid. Therefore, they are in the official statistics. 874 had symptoms linkeable to flu.
The government's terrible response and plans for a #ToryGenocide can be identified through the fact that all their advice and supporting data is open access.
-_-
One... aquaintance accused me of being "brutal", by sending her links to the various published government documents.
Apparently providing people with links to information is the new brutal.
Bit like the "new fascism" was advocating free elections in Poland in the 1980s.
How dare you expose people to facts when they don't want to see them. You should be ashamed of yourself.
I fail to see why a tighter definition is needed? After all sunbathing or picknicking alone in the park keeps greater social distancing than jogging, cycling or walking through it with a group of other people.
Because the basic guidance is *essential* trips out only. Exercise is a category of essential.
If sunbathing or picnicking were allowed it would be the same as no lock down
No, that would include non essential shops, theatres, restaurants, cinemas etc being allowed to stay open
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
Its still rising I believe, its the rate of increase that we need to look at, once it hits zero rate of increase that's one milestone. Next milestone of reducing significantly so we have notably more recoveries going out than coming in, ie we have capacity.
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
It's not only recoveries that free up a hospital bed. Deaths work too.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
Its still rising I believe, its the rate of increase that we need to look at, once it hits zero rate of increase that's one milestone. Next milestone of reducing significantly so we have notably more recoveries going out than coming in, ie we have capacity.
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
I mean the number of people admitted to hospital per day. Does anyone know whether that is now going up or down?
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
Its still rising I believe, its the rate of increase that we need to look at, once it hits zero rate of increase that's one milestone. Next milestone of reducing significantly so we have notably more recoveries going out than coming in, ie we have capacity.
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
It decreased today. Hope this is start of a trend...
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
It's petty and pathetic. Cornwall Council and the police in Cornwall coming across as complete morons. The fact is the great majority of people are being sensible and respecting the rules. No need to track down every single one of the few transgressors. We are not in a police state - yet.
Whilst attempting to keep millions of people largely confined to flats you cannot possibly be seen to be allowing others to zip off to their second homes in the country for the weekend. It is also unacceptable for the people living there full time.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
ridiculous. the implication is any society that had never heard of the bloody 10 commandments couldn't have had any of this "common decency"
The government's terrible response and plans for a #ToryGenocide can be identified through the fact that all their advice and supporting data is open access.
-_-
One... aquaintance accused me of being "brutal", by sending her links to the various published government documents.
Apparently providing people with links to information is the new brutal.
Bit like the "new fascism" was advocating free elections in Poland in the 1980s.
How dare you expose people to facts when they don't want to see them. You should be ashamed of yourself.
There is a whole trope of this kind of thing. I have long been accustomed to the following accusations -
1) It is disgusting that you know so much about horrible topic X 2) Cold hearted science vs warmed hearted "feels" 3) Hurting people by proving their beliefs false
etc etc.
Did you know that double blind scientific trials are racist?
And so, media lasted two questions before they were back on about how can decisions be made with the PM in hospital.
It's strange more than anything else. Of course the question arose when the PM was taken into hospital, that's not unreasonable, but legally decisions can be made, and political direction is being steered by medical and scientific advice, it's not complicated or confusing about how decisions can be made.
This sort of signage loses peoples goodwill . People on the whole will comply with laws and direction if they think the maker is doing so reluctantly and against their instinct (Its why Boris Johnson can get away with it and still be popular).Unfortunately too many people in police and local government are control freaks - Sunbathing in itself is not dangerous for spreading this . Its the distance between people. Councils should stop being so mard arses
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Funny, Tobes seem to think him being pushed out of his education post 'cos of him exercising free speech as persecution rather than a demonstration of freedom.
I know it is inconsistent, but I don't have sympathy for this character unlike the Labour paralegal lady who said Boris had it coming. Three reasons, he has only been 'suspended' whatever that means, his outburst was worse and more sustained, and I don't like the RMT.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
ridiculous. the implication is any society that had never heard of the bloody 10 commandments couldn't have had any of this "common decency"
Most religions give much the same social advice as the Abrahamic.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Albeit, if you'd quoted the same figure yesterday it would have been 43% and then 52% the day before that...
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
As someone who cycles and jogs a bit, it is distressing that while cyclers and joggers do get some unearned crap, they do still earn plenty of the crap they get. Something about both activities that turns those doing the activity and those interacting with them into arseholes.
Its observation bias. The arsehole cyclists/joggers (of which there are too many) are the ones that you remember. The decent ones (which are probably a majority to be fair) get forgotten about as moot.
If I'm going through a set of traffic lights I don't think about the cyclist respecting the lights. I do think about the idiots that don't think the red light applied to them.
On the way to my daughters school there is a crossroads. The number of cyclists who think it is ok to shoot through red lights at speed when hordes of kids are trying to cross always amazes me
Here on the Glamorgan Heritage Coast today has been like The Tour de France. Cyclists in Lycra everywhere.
This sort of signage loses peoples goodwill . People on the whole will comply with laws and direction if they think the maker is doing so reluctantly and against their instinct (Its why Boris Johnson can get away with it and still be popular).Unfortunately too many people in police and local government are control freaks - Sunbathing in itself is not dangerous for spreading this . Its the distance between people. Councils should stop being so mard arses
The problem, sadly, is the existence of morons.
This is why we can't have nice things. Well, dangerous things.
I would like to experiment with some truly..... interesting materials. I can't. Because a small number of people have repeatedly misused them.
That's a little bit annoying for me.
It is less annoying to the non-trivial number of people who would be effected by the combination of moronic bad people + the materials in question.
So I put up with my disappointment.
Sadly we need a clear, wide, well protected gap between what we need and what is allowed. A moat to protect us from the morons.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
ridiculous. the implication is any society that had never heard of the bloody 10 commandments couldn't have had any of this "common decency"
Most religions give much the same social advice as the Abrahamic.
Indeed, which suggests that it is "common", just as Philip Thompson said.
The ten commandments are hardly the be all and end all of how to live in a good way.
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Personally, I would leave them stranded, but I don't think that would go down very well.
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
These are only preliminary conclusions from 400 out of 1,000 tests. There are still more tests to be evaluated from the Gangelt study.
The Munich study (metropolitan population pattern, 3,000 households=5,000 tests) had started last Sunday. The testing hasn't yet concluded. No results published yet.
Once these (and maybe some others that are currently in preparation) are evaluated we may be on firmer ground regarding conclusions.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Albeit, if you'd quoted the same figure yesterday it would have been 43% and then 52% the day before that...
I think we're headed in the right direction.
My own hunch is lockdown will last until mid to end May, then we'll have some restrictions lifted, but a lot of social distancing in place for a while (such as one in one out in shops) and things back to normalish in August/September but with the proviso we'll have strict lockdown if people stop act like twats later on in the year.
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Haven't people had enough time to get back home by now. The least we could do is actually state a repatriation/freight only rule.
As someone who cycles and jogs a bit, it is distressing that while cyclers and joggers do get some unearned crap, they do still earn plenty of the crap they get. Something about both activities that turns those doing the activity and those interacting with them into arseholes.
Its observation bias. The arsehole cyclists/joggers (of which there are too many) are the ones that you remember. The decent ones (which are probably a majority to be fair) get forgotten about as moot.
If I'm going through a set of traffic lights I don't think about the cyclist respecting the lights. I do think about the idiots that don't think the red light applied to them.
On the way to my daughters school there is a crossroads. The number of cyclists who think it is ok to shoot through red lights at speed when hordes of kids are trying to cross always amazes me
Here on the Glamorgan Heritage Coast today has been like The Tour de France. Cyclists in Lycra everywhere.
It has been my theory, supported by personal, anecdotal data, that the twats who made themselves hated in various kinds of motor vehicle have colonised the cycling space.
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Haven't people had enough time to get back home by now. The least we could do is actually state a repatriation/freight only rule.
How many people are traveling for tourism/non-essential work these days?
Comments
At most, its a ca. 5-7 day lag on something that might be related to the infection rate.
Sweden now has (or had yesterday) almost twice the number of deaths per million people compared to Portugal. Actually just went and checked and today it is exactly double.
86 deaths per million people in Sweden
43 deaths per million people in Portugal.
Although interestingly Portugal has over 60% higher number of detected cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
I do not think this is back-logged like deaths, it doesn't have the issues of the tested data, its big enough to shake off random changes.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#
COVID19 Inpatients tab in this is what I would call a green shoot.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/intensive-care-doctors-question-overly-aggressive-use-ventilators/
How's Mrs Malc coming along?
https://twitter.com/Egbert_PengWu/status/1248319864877584385
I would not give anyone a comeback question
The medical officer who was just on said they think they are *at* the peak - not going to go down yet.
3,197 Critical care beds occupied as of yesterday.
Lady earlier stated that they had 30,000 beds cleared and assigned to COVID19
Which is another point against the Washington University model.
Large numbers may have been infected without knowing it – and that means lockdown could soon be lifted, scientists in Germany say" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/09/boris-worried-lockdown-has-gone-far-can-end/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586466176
-_-
It would be positive if the government did publish the recoveries amongst the hospitalised that have since left the hospital. I haven't seen that so far. So far I believe there is one possible, a Mr B Johnson.
Incredible. How dare it when the media have decided it can't.
There's a famous quote about that...
Do you see how that doesn't tell us anything about the number of new cases, which is 50-100 times larger?
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
Apparently providing people with links to information is the new brutal.
Bit like the "new fascism" was advocating free elections in Poland in the 1980s.
On a sample of 164 out of 677 Lombardia nursery homes, 1,822 deaths were reported from 1 February to 6 April
60 of them had a positive test for Covid. Therefore, they are in the official statistics. 874 had symptoms linkeable to flu.
1) It is disgusting that you know so much about horrible topic X
2) Cold hearted science vs warmed hearted "feels"
3) Hurting people by proving their beliefs false
etc etc.
Did you know that double blind scientific trials are racist?
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
He is an MIT AI expert, but I don't doubt he hasn't done a lot of research.
How is Coronavirus Transmitted and Do Masks Work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA2BOT3A70w
This is why we can't have nice things. Well, dangerous things.
I would like to experiment with some truly..... interesting materials. I can't. Because a small number of people have repeatedly misused them.
That's a little bit annoying for me.
It is less annoying to the non-trivial number of people who would be effected by the combination of moronic bad people + the materials in question.
So I put up with my disappointment.
Sadly we need a clear, wide, well protected gap between what we need and what is allowed. A moat to protect us from the morons.
The ten commandments are hardly the be all and end all of how to live in a good way.
Personally, I would leave them stranded, but I don't think that would go down very well.
These are only preliminary conclusions from 400 out of 1,000 tests. There are still more tests to be evaluated from the Gangelt study.
The Munich study (metropolitan population pattern, 3,000 households=5,000 tests) had started last Sunday. The testing hasn't yet concluded. No results published yet.
Once these (and maybe some others that are currently in preparation) are evaluated we may be on firmer ground regarding conclusions.
My own hunch is lockdown will last until mid to end May, then we'll have some restrictions lifted, but a lot of social distancing in place for a while (such as one in one out in shops) and things back to normalish in August/September but with the proviso we'll have strict lockdown if people stop act like twats later on in the year.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
They are now entitled, smug, twats.