"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid."
Weren't 200,000 deaths predicted without any measures?
This 'avoidable deaths' argument is pure sophistry. These are deaths that can also be avoided, without deliberately increasing Covid deaths. People aren't stupid, they can spot that a greater focus on mental health services, on setting up a national effort on rehousing victims of domestic abuse, on keeping and enhancing the financial safety net, etc. will avoid many of those deaths as well. Nelson is trying it on, he knows full well that it isn't either/or. I notice that he isn't also claiming 'well, they would have died anyway, it's just that they'll die a bit earlier'. Funny, that.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid."
1 in 400 of the population is going to commit suicide or be killed as a result of domestic violence, because of the lockdown?
I think that kind of claim would need to be backed up by strong evidence.
I assume they are talking about the long-term effects on NHS funding, for example (if the study/analysis ever actually took place, that is).
Why do you assume that?
This is the claim as reported by the Mail: "A tentative estimate circulating in Whitehall suggests a six-figure death toll from a long-term lockdown, caused by a spike in suicides and domestic violence. "
Sorry, misread "a long-term lockdown" as "effects of a long-term lockdown". I agree that it is not believable.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We have a long road ahead for sure
Sending you and your good lady my best wishes and hope the better weather aids her recovery
All the best Malc
Thanks G, we are better off than many at present
Best wishes Malcolm. Hope it all works out okay for you and your good lady.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
In the long term it will definitely be an improvement in efficiency.
Though successive governments have prompted education as an industry in itself. So in the short to medium term there will be a fair amount of displaced, and maybe quite vocal lecturing and support staff.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
Scientists warn of Spain's 'premature' exit from lockdown Spanish authorities say they trust that plans to allow the return of nonessential workers to factories and construction sites next week won't cause a significant resurgence in coronavirus infections, as some scientists have warned.
The move would not see a return of commercial activity in restaurants or shops other than supermarkets, pharmacies or newsstands, but has raised questions about the timing in easing some restrictions as the outbreak remains intense.
"We are not under the impression that these measures will increase in an important way the transmission (of the virus)," the spokeswoman of Spain's health emergency coordination center, Maria Jose Sierra, said Friday. "We wouldn't be adopting them otherwise."
Some experts had warned that relaxing the two-week lockdown on a broader part of the manufacturing and construction sector comes too early.
Margarita del Val, a virologist from CSIC, Spain's main public scientific body, said that loosening the lockdown on industry is "hasty" and that any rollback needs to be be accompanied by a program to isolate new coronavirus carriers. Del Val supported the idea of a Europe-wide mobile app that shows the proximity of people to those who have tested positive.
"Apple and Google are jointly developing technology to alert people if they have recently come into contact with others found to be infected with coronavirus."
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
It also hides a lot of potential unemployment among 'academics'.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
In the long term it will definitely be an improvement in efficiency.
Though successive governments have prompted education as an industry in itself. So in the short to medium term there will be a fair amount of displaced, and maybe quite vocal lecturing and support staff.
It is the economic impact that will be felt. The main reason that overseas student numbers have gone up so much has because of the money it brings into the British economy.
Restrictions will remain in place in Italy for another three weeks, the country’s prime minister has said, although a few types of shop will be allowed to reopen from next Tuesday. Giuseppe Conte has said:
This is a difficult but necessary decision for which I take all political responsibility.
The curbs on movement and the shutdown imposed on most shops and businesses across Italy were imposed on 9 March and were scheduled to expire on Monday.
Among a few exceptions to the lockdown, which will now run until 3 May, Conte said bookshops, stationers and shops selling children’s clothes could reopen from 14 April.
He also said the economic package put together by eurozone finance ministers on Thursday is “still insufficient”, adding Italy will continue to battle for the issuance of common debt through euro bonds.
US Fearless Leader is a meaner, dumber Hoover. Without the medicine ball, but with the same basic playbook: over-promise, under-deliver, personalize everything, blame others & refuse all blame.
Big difference is, Hoover had several years after the October 1929 stock market crash to shred his reputation before he had to face the voters in November 1932.
For Trump, the interval between the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic and 2020 election is much shorter, months instead of years.
On the other hand, in 1928 Hoover won by a landslide, which was of course NOT the case for The Donald in 2016.
I hold a minority view that Trump will lose and it will not even be close.
I think the Dems will win the Electoral College but only by a majority similar to Trump got in 2016. I think that Trump will lose a lot of votes in states where it doesn't make any difference like Oregon (safe Dem) and Texas (safe GOP) where lots of normally Republican voters will stay at home. So the popular vote will be heavily on the side of the Dems. Remember the Republicans have only got more votes than the dems once in the last 30 years.
A Chinese writer who published a diary during her time under lockdown in Wuhan has been subjected to widespread online criticism for publishing her book in English and German.
Fang Fang has been accused of contributing to a negative international narrative on China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The popular Wuhan writer began chronicling the lockdown in late January, including criticism of the official response.
“How many people have died in Wuhan and their families destroyed?” she wrote on 31 January. “But so far not a single person has said sorry or taken responsibility. I’ve even seen a writer use the phrase ‘complete victory’. What are they talking about?”
Her posts were shared widely on social media even as each was quickly deleted by censors, according to the Diplomat magazine.
Her Weibo account, which had more than 3.8 million followers, was shut down in February. It has since been reinstated.
But her writing was picked up and turned into a book, due to be published by Harper Collins in June, translated and published in English and German.
For publishing in the western languages, Fang Fang has been accused of helping foreign countries attack China, giving them “a giant sword”.
As I've been saying on here for weeks: for China it's all about Face.
Not the truth, not the right thing: saving face.
This is a big part of several East Asian cultures anyway (and it's corrosive as it means truth is suppressed, and therefore progress) but it's particularly acute in China. They have a totalitarian government too and we know how much they warp and manipulate the narrative to preserve the myths of themselves in power.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We have a long road ahead for sure
Sending you and your good lady my best wishes and hope the better weather aids her recovery
All the best Malc
Thanks G, we are better off than many at present
Best wishes Malcolm. Hope it all works out okay for you and your good lady.
Doesn't the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 suggest that the current pandemic is likely to continue, for the whole of 2020 and a bit beyond, with at least two "waves" and varying intensity from time-to-time and place-to-place?
Recent story in NYT about how in USA in 1918, cities that imposed quarantines & lock-downs earlier and more stringently, did better in the long run with respect to both public health and economic recovery, than cities where measures were less stringent and less timely.
For example, Los Angeles did better than San Francisco, in keeping death rates down AND in bouncing back in terms of jobs & business after the pandemic was over.
Same thing with Minneapolis & St Paul the Twin Cities of Minnesota, separated only by a city line.
I've been working from home, and my study looks out the front of our house. It's been interesting seeing what's happening outside, and it has been fairly well as I predicted.
There are a few families on our road that are all friends. A couple of weeks ago, you saw them standing across the road from each other talking. After a few days, they were crossing the road and talking over the hedge.
I predicted at the time that it would be about three weeks before they were in each others houses. Gradually, they have got closer and this week, the kids have been playing on the street together.
Today, a few days earlier than I predicted, they are all in one of the gardens together.
It's the gradual drift that causes the problems. You could see it happening here, and I'm sure it is happening all over the place.
Call Crimestoppers. Those daft sods need teaching a lesson.
Generally the families here seem to be following the letter of the law. It's generally thr 16-20 year old demographic who are pushing it a bit. Still, as we've seen, the extent to which people are following guidelines massively exceds expectations. Can't be too cross about it.
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
A Chinese writer who published a diary during her time under lockdown in Wuhan has been subjected to widespread online criticism for publishing her book in English and German.
Fang Fang has been accused of contributing to a negative international narrative on China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The popular Wuhan writer began chronicling the lockdown in late January, including criticism of the official response.
“How many people have died in Wuhan and their families destroyed?” she wrote on 31 January. “But so far not a single person has said sorry or taken responsibility. I’ve even seen a writer use the phrase ‘complete victory’. What are they talking about?”
Her posts were shared widely on social media even as each was quickly deleted by censors, according to the Diplomat magazine.
Her Weibo account, which had more than 3.8 million followers, was shut down in February. It has since been reinstated.
But her writing was picked up and turned into a book, due to be published by Harper Collins in June, translated and published in English and German.
For publishing in the western languages, Fang Fang has been accused of helping foreign countries attack China, giving them “a giant sword”.
As I've been saying on here for weeks: for China it's all about Face.
Not the truth, not the right thing: saving face.
This is a big part of several East Asian cultures anyway (and it's corrosive as it means truth is suppressed, and therefore progress) but it's particularly acute in China. They have a totalitarian government too and we know how much they warp and manipulate the narrative to preserve the myths of themselves in power.
Look at the Soviet Union and Chernobyl.
So we can look forward to an awesome drama series in about 25 years?
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
It's quite telling that their prediction graph has been almost completely wrong the whole time.
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
As I say.. pointless to estimate on "facts" that have no firm foundation
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
It's quite telling that their prediction graph has been almost completely wrong the whole time.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
Universality education is for the most part a consumption good packaged and sold as an investment good, I.e. the benefit is having 3 or 4 years of fun, while telling yourself that this will help you long term, which encourages people to overpay, it may be fun and slightly improve your salary, but when you include 3 or 4 years when you are not working to the debt that you get at universality, its not worth it for a lot who now go.
Christ, Channel 4 news on Ecuador just now. The situation looks horrendous, a medical system that has buckled under the pressure in Guayaquil and bodies left in homes to rot. Kudos to Eadric who picked up on this well before the media. Just awful, and the future in similar countries can’t be any better.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We have a long road ahead for sure
Sending you and your good lady my best wishes and hope the better weather aids her recovery
All the best Malc
Thanks G, we are better off than many at present
Best wishes Malcolm. Hope it all works out okay for you and your good lady.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid."
Weren't 200,000 deaths predicted without any measures?
This 'avoidable deaths' argument is pure sophistry. These are deaths that can also be avoided, without deliberately increasing Covid deaths. People aren't stupid, they can spot that a greater focus on mental health services, on setting up a national effort on rehousing victims of domestic abuse, on keeping and enhancing the financial safety net, etc. will avoid many of those deaths as well. Nelson is trying it on, he knows full well that it isn't either/or. I notice that he isn't also claiming 'well, they would have died anyway, it's just that they'll die a bit earlier'. Funny, that.
Death is never avoidable. Ultimately 100% of births will result in deaths. All we are doing is shunting around the timing. Which is perfectly understandable.
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
Very insulting to link him to Branson, polar opposites.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We have a long road ahead for sure
Sending you and your good lady my best wishes and hope the better weather aids her recovery
All the best Malc
Thanks G, we are better off than many at present
Best wishes Malcolm. Hope it all works out okay for you and your good lady.
Got to go for the evening but governments (even democracies) do not usually put so much effort in shutting down everything to save perhaps 20000 lives (manly people near the end of their lives anyway) . It was only 75 years ago the UK government deliberately raised Dresden to the ground actually wanting to kill more than 20000. Governments are full of people who like to control others (its self fulfilling sadly) - The instinct should be to resist in a reasoned way - Sweden is about the only county that seems to have not become a control freak place in this
Er, we are saving half a million lives. The 20,000 are those we are sadly unable to save.
Now, please tell us the price you put on a human life, multiply by half a million and that is what we can justify spending on preventative measures.
Thank you Sandy. It drives me nuts how many people seem to think that this disease and the mitigation effort is only about the number of deaths.
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
I think we can safely ignore their "predictions".
That said, a prediction of 37,000 dead looks about right to me. I’ve been guessing 20-40k for a while, for the UK first wave
Why guess.. i cannot understand why there is such a fixation about it?
There will have to be another set of big economic measures. What is needed is a period where all rents and all loan payments and all interest payments (apart from government bonds) are suspended without accruing any debt. That will cost the government little but provide a lifeline to businesses and many workers. The rational is that we are pausing large sections of the economy. Landlords will take a hit but they are going nowhere whilst productive businesses could be killed off otherwise.
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
It's quite telling that their prediction graph has been almost completely wrong the whole time.
not great work is an understatement
Aye, their new 'worst case' for the UK is now significantly below their 'best estimate' only 4 days ago.
And looks like their big jump in the dutch death rate is down to a single days peak on the 7th april.
Doesn't the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 suggest that the current pandemic is likely to continue, for the whole of 2020 and a bit beyond, with at least two "waves" and varying intensity from time-to-time and place-to-place?
Recent story in NYT about how in USA in 1918, cities that imposed quarantines & lock-downs earlier and more stringently, did better in the long run with respect to both public health and economic recovery, than cities where measures were less stringent and less timely.
For example, Los Angeles did better than San Francisco, in keeping death rates down AND in bouncing back in terms of jobs & business after the pandemic was over.
Same thing with Minneapolis & St Paul the Twin Cities of Minnesota, separated only by a city line.
Iv seen other analysis that clam to show the opposite, I think/suspect, that if you know the outcome you want to show there are enough city's that you can cherry pick to back up your opinion.
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
I think we can safely ignore their "predictions".
That said, a prediction of 37,000 dead looks about right to me. I’ve been guessing 20-40k for a while, for the UK first wave
Why guess.. i cannot understand why there is such a fixation about it?
He hopes that posts like that might make us forget he was predicting that millions of Brits would die not so long ago?
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid."
Weren't 200,000 deaths predicted without any measures?
This 'avoidable deaths' argument is pure sophistry. These are deaths that can also be avoided, without deliberately increasing Covid deaths. People aren't stupid, they can spot that a greater focus on mental health services, on setting up a national effort on rehousing victims of domestic abuse, on keeping and enhancing the financial safety net, etc. will avoid many of those deaths as well. Nelson is trying it on, he knows full well that it isn't either/or. I notice that he isn't also claiming 'well, they would have died anyway, it's just that they'll die a bit earlier'. Funny, that.
Death is never avoidable. Ultimately 100% of births will result in deaths. All we are doing is shunting around the timing. Which is perfectly understandable.
I know you didn't intend it like this but "All I was doing was shunting around the timing of deaths" sounds like the defence of a mass murderer.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
Universality education is for the most part a consumption good packaged and sold as an investment good, I.e. the benefit is having 3 or 4 years of fun, while telling yourself that this will help you long term, which encourages people to overpay, it may be fun and slightly improve your salary, but when you include 3 or 4 years when you are not working to the debt that you get at universality, its not worth it for a lot who now go.
Yep - I've got to the point where I can't see the benefit unless you know exactly what you want to do trouble is most 18 year olds don't.
The daughter who is off to university this year wants to work in film composition and has got herself onto the best appropriate course. It has still taken her (and me) 9 months to convince my wife that a conservatoire was a better place than a proper (Russell Group) university as she is still thinks things are the same as they were back in the 90's.
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
Other friends of mine report the same
You missed out plenty of tapping the wifey...
I think for a lot of middle class professionals, whose jobs can be done from home and own large-ish houses with gardens, life is probably not that bad at all. More time with the family, no commuting etc.
I really wouldn't fancy being crammed in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months though, and where you know a significant proportion are going out to work every day and potentially coming back covering every surface with the CV.
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
I am not surprised at all. Once you get outside of the urban centres, population density gets real thin really quickly and with that far fewer facilities.
Go to places like Idaho or Montana and there there are literally one or two cities in the whole state of any size. I know they are low populous states, but I could go on and on with examples from other states and it soon adds up in terms of total numbers.
And even say NY state, its gets really rural upstate an hour out of NYC.
They aren't even really cities.
Boise, Idaho, is home to about 200,000 people. That's a little smaller than Luton.
Cheyenne is the largest city in Wyoming. And it's smaller than Bedford.
Wyoming is 100,000 square miles. England is 50,000 square miles.
One of the biggest complaints of recent years has been that people having been getting enough sleep in the "24/7 society". They've got plenty of time for it now.
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
Universality education is for the most part a consumption good packaged and sold as an investment good, I.e. the benefit is having 3 or 4 years of fun, while telling yourself that this will help you long term, which encourages people to overpay, it may be fun and slightly improve your salary, but when you include 3 or 4 years when you are not working to the debt that you get at universality, its not worth it for a lot who now go.
Yep - I've got to the point where I can't see the benefit unless you know exactly what you want to do trouble is most 18 year olds don't.
The daughter who is off to university this year wants to do Film Composition and has got onto the best appropriate course. It has still taken her (and me) 9 months to convince my wife that a conservatoire was a better place than a proper (Russell Group) university as she is still thinks things are the same as they were back in the 90's.
Some of the former polys (for example) took the bit in their teeth and really changed. Others turned into degree mills of the worst type.
I have always thought that mandating going to university at 18 is a disaster for many.
"at the same predicted peak date for daily COVID-19 deaths, the prediction is now 1,674 deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) on the peak day and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave."
So apparently 4 days of extra data and they have quietly reduced their prediction by 44%. They don't appear to have updated their predictions on their front page.....
meanwhile they;ve trebled the netherlands death prediction
not great work from the people the guardian were eager to tell us were "World-leading disease data analysts"
I think we can safely ignore their "predictions".
That said, a prediction of 37,000 dead looks about right to me. I’ve been guessing 20-40k for a while, for the UK first wave
Why guess.. i cannot understand why there is such a fixation about it?
We’re been through this, FFS.
This is a site which discusses major politics and future political events.
The expected death toll from coronavirus is absolutely critical to so many things: how long lockdown should last, how the NHS will cope, which kind of lockdown is best, and so on and so forth. Without a sense of the possible death toll (however morbid it is to speculate) we cannot sensibly discuss anything about coronavirus
It's also just human nature to speculate about such a thing, I'd not understand if there wasn't a fixation.
I am not surprised at all. Once you get outside of the urban centres, population density gets real thin really quickly and with that far fewer facilities.
Go to places like Idaho or Montana and there there are literally one or two cities in the whole state of any size. I know they are low populous states, but I could go on and on with examples from other states and it soon adds up in terms of total numbers.
And even say NY state, its gets really rural upstate an hour out of NYC.
They aren't even really cities.
Boise, Idaho, is home to about 200,000 people. That's a little smaller than Luton.
Cheyenne is the largest city in Wyoming. And it's smaller than Bedford.
Wyoming is 100,000 square miles. England is 50,000 square miles.
I know...I have been to Boise, Idaho....I was using the American terminology of city.
Got to go for the evening but governments (even democracies) do not usually put so much effort in shutting down everything to save perhaps 20000 lives (manly people near the end of their lives anyway) . It was only 75 years ago the UK government deliberately raised Dresden to the ground actually wanting to kill more than 20000. Governments are full of people who like to control others (its self fulfilling sadly) - The instinct should be to resist in a reasoned way - Sweden is about the only county that seems to have not become a control freak place in this
Er, we are saving half a million lives. The 20,000 are those we are sadly unable to save.
Now, please tell us the price you put on a human life, multiply by half a million and that is what we can justify spending on preventative measures.
Thank you Sandy. It drives me nuts how many people seem to think that this disease and the mitigation effort is only about the number of deaths.
It's about the number of living people at the other end.
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
Very insulting to link him to Branson, polar opposites.
Rare to agree - but definitely.
For one thing, he is genuinely rich. And empathetic. And a good family man..
In fact it is hard to think of much the two have in common
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
The purpose of the rules is to reduce transmission. It's the purpose that matters, not the rules themselves. Sunbathing, if you are more than 2 metres from anyone, doesn't cause transmission.
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
Very insulting to link him to Branson, polar opposites.
Rare to agree - but definitely.
For one thing, he is genuinely rich. And empathetic. And a good family man..
In fact it is hard to think of much the two have in common
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Those Italians would have died even if their system hadn't crashed?
Why are CH4 news even raising the conspiracy of government death numbers? Does anybody really think the UK government is deliberately fiddling the figures? And the likes of Italy and Spain aren't counting deaths outside of hospitals.
The reality is this is incredibly fast moving, unprecedented rate of deaths and while hospitals are fighting at near max capacity and the rest of us trying to hide away.
And it is also clear, that the ONS is going to pick up the data. There is no China style suppression going on.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
The Supermarkets failure to adapt their Just In Time stock keeping in the face of increased home delivery has pushed us past breaking point with them
Put in and order for delivery 3 weeks in advance and they still fail to have items we ordered.
Not having stock on day of delivery was annoying but okay in the old world but now when I've given you 20 days notice to fulfill an order it is ridiculous.
It has pushed us towards ordering with wholesalers and smaller retailers who do radical things like "only list the stock they have" and setup recurring orders and such like.
My other half is braving it physically for now. But that's not a sensible option if you've got mandatory contact with a vulnerable person (Or are yourself) in your household.
You've basically no choice if you're in my situation. Husband has been told to shield but there's zero chance of our getting Government handout parcels because those are only for people who live alone and have nobody else to fetch and carry for them. Supermarket home delivery services are hopelessly overloaded and, as has been correctly pointed out and as my Mum has also experienced, even when a delivery arrives after about three weeks half the items are missing or have been substituted.
I have to go to work anyway (it can't be done from home,) so I consider the additional risk posed by going shopping twice a week, especially since the bunfight was replaced by orderly queueing to get into half-empty stores, to be fairly low.
Ultimately, social distancing is about reducing close contact with other people and, therefore, reducing risk. You can't eliminate risk altogether and you have to live your life - and things may even get more risky for people in my situation rather than less when the lockdown is eased, at least for a while. But what are we all meant to do?
We need, essentially, to keep buggering on and hope for the best. That's not an easy thing to do when you're as frightened as I am of bringing Covid home with me, but if I spent all my time cowering in the flat thinking about it then I'd be fired from my job, end up paranoid and depressed, and I'd still have to go out to get the stupid bloody shopping in the end anyway. Then if we do, hopefully, both get through this disaster in one piece then our lives would be blighted by the permanent loss of income, because I work in a very niche business and I'd probably end up either as a shelf-stacker or long-term unemployed if I got the sack.
This plague is going to be with us, in all probability, for a very long time, because there is no particular reason to suppose that the magic bullet - a vaccine - will be developed on anything less than a timescale of years and it might very well never come along at all. So we just have to learn to live with it as best we can.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Those Italians would have died even if their system hadn't crashed?
At one point some hospitals were denying ventilators to over 60s. I know with CV ventilators aren't anywhere near as effective as saving lives in comparison to normal pneumonia, but there still must have been a significant excess.
And Sky showed some front line doctors working from 5/6am until 1am, 7 days a week. One guy had done that for the past 6 weeks, sleeping in his office. You are going to make mistakes when it gets to that sort of state.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Possibly because we've built these huge new temporary hospitals at the Excel Centre, NEC, etc.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Possibly because we've built these huge new temporary hospitals at the Excel Centre, NEC, etc.
But only the Excel is the only one being used and only for a few patients and the death numbers are historical, dating back up to a week ago.
The government and NHS appear to have done brilliantly expanding capacity within hospitals, but we started from a much lower level for things like ICU.
Now part is probably because of warning managed to empty out non-emergency cases, but still. I think it is worth exploring.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
Here's the problem I have. I am allowed, as the rules stand at the moment, to EXERCISE once a day and SHOP once a day. I do not have access to a car, therefore have to WALK to the shops in order to shop. WALKING is an EXERCISE therefore I have to either SHOP but not EXERCISE or EXERCISE but not SHOP. This is why I have come down in favour of a complete national lockdown with the army delivering supplies because although 95% are following the rules (based on that poll a few days ago) it is the 5% who are not that is ruining it for everyone else.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Would be interesting to have some other European comparisons.
My wife's niece is working on the front line in Toulon & we get weekly updates. She phoned us three weeks ago asking if we could send her some P2 or P3 respirators, continuous shortages of PPE in the hospitals there . They are receiving patients in the south from other parts of France which have run out of bed capacity. At the beginning of this week they hit 10,000 tests per day.
They have been told that the EU tender for ventilators ,PPE etc.should be signed very soon & they should expect to get new ventlators in July. They currently have 8,000 ventilators.
Here's the problem I have. I am allowed, as the rules stand at the moment, to EXERCISE once a day and SHOP once a day. I do not have access to a car, therefore have to WALK to the shops in order to shop. WALKING is an EXERCISE therefore I have to either SHOP but not EXERCISE or EXERCISE but not SHOP. This is why I have come down in favour of a complete national lockdown with the army delivering supplies because although 95% are following the rules (based on that poll a few days ago) it is the 5% who are not that is ruining it for everyone else.
I wouldn't count walking to the shop as exercise, since the primary purpose is to get to the shop.
Here's the problem I have. I am allowed, as the rules stand at the moment, to EXERCISE once a day and SHOP once a day. I do not have access to a car, therefore have to WALK to the shops in order to shop. WALKING is an EXERCISE therefore I have to either SHOP but not EXERCISE or EXERCISE but not SHOP. This is why I have come down in favour of a complete national lockdown with the army delivering supplies because although 95% are following the rules (based on that poll a few days ago) it is the 5% who are not that is ruining it for everyone else.
If you walk to the shop you are exercising as well as shopping
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Would be interesting to have some other European comparisons.
My wife's niece is working on the front line in Toulon & we get weekly updates. She phoned us three weeks ago asking if we could send her some P2 or P3 respirators, continuous shortages of PPE in the hospitals there . They are receiving patients in the south from other parts of France which have run out of bed capacity. At the beginning of this week they hit 10,000 tests per day.
They have been told that the EU tender for ventilators ,PPE etc.should be signed very soon & they should expect to get new ventlators in July. They currently have 8,000 ventilators.
Here's the problem I have. I am allowed, as the rules stand at the moment, to EXERCISE once a day and SHOP once a day. I do not have access to a car, therefore have to WALK to the shops in order to shop. WALKING is an EXERCISE therefore I have to either SHOP but not EXERCISE or EXERCISE but not SHOP. This is why I have come down in favour of a complete national lockdown with the army delivering supplies because although 95% are following the rules (based on that poll a few days ago) it is the 5% who are not that is ruining it for everyone else.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
I think that the answer to that question lies in sub-national variations, that is the extremely high concentration of Italian cases in Lombard by comparison to the more modest concentration in the UK by the time we experienced levels comparable as a whole to those in Italy. There's also the fact that Italy wasn't able to anticipate what hit in Lombardy, whereas the UK had several weeks warning of what was about to hit. Hence they did at least use the time available to build in additional capacity in London.
So I would not like a journalist to ask your question, because it would allow the eggheads to bask in wholly undeserved self-praise. The UK doesn't deserve any plaudits, because overall we've still been caught napping in too many areas despite the advance warning. Shame that we didn't prepare for mass testing (with the UK still having conducted fewer tests per capita than any other developed nation), or gear up earlier for predictable shortages of medical equipment (eg. ventilators) or PPE.
Here's the problem I have. I am allowed, as the rules stand at the moment, to EXERCISE once a day and SHOP once a day. I do not have access to a car, therefore have to WALK to the shops in order to shop. WALKING is an EXERCISE therefore I have to either SHOP but not EXERCISE or EXERCISE but not SHOP. This is why I have come down in favour of a complete national lockdown with the army delivering supplies because although 95% are following the rules (based on that poll a few days ago) it is the 5% who are not that is ruining it for everyone else.
The purpose of the rules is to reduce transmission. It's the purpose that matters, not the rules themselves. Sunbathing, if you are more than 2 metres from anyone, doesn't cause transmission.
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
Sorry, you went to Italy in early March because, ho ho ho, what a lot of fuss about a silly old virus which kills so many fewer Italians than road deaths do (Italian road deaths: 3300 annually) and you are presenting yourself as someone whose independent judgment is such that adherence to the letter of the rules is not for you?
The purpose of the rules is to reduce transmission. It's the purpose that matters, not the rules themselves. Sunbathing, if you are more than 2 metres from anyone, doesn't cause transmission.
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
Sorry, you went to Italy in early March because, ho ho ho, what a lot of fuss about a silly old virus which kills so many fewer Italians than road deaths do (Italian road deaths: 3300 annually) and you are presenting yourself as someone whose independent judgment is such that adherence to the letter of the rules is not for you?
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
This is very interesting, thanks for posting. However I don't think it undermines the central point. It's not where the Commandments came from, it is what they achieved.
The purpose of the rules is to reduce transmission. It's the purpose that matters, not the rules themselves. Sunbathing, if you are more than 2 metres from anyone, doesn't cause transmission.
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
Sorry, you went to Italy in early March because, ho ho ho, what a lot of fuss about a silly old virus which kills so many fewer Italians than road deaths do (Italian road deaths: 3300 annually) and you are presenting yourself as someone whose independent judgment is such that adherence to the letter of the rules is not for you?
Seriously?
Please just do exactly what you are told to do.
It's funny how all this brings out the school prefect in some people very quickly. "Follow the rules but don't trouble to understand them".
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
Other friends of mine report the same
You missed out plenty of tapping the wifey...
I think for a lot of middle class professionals, whose jobs can be done from home and own large-ish houses with gardens, life is probably not that bad at all. More time with the family, no commuting etc.
I really wouldn't fancy being crammed in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months though, and where you know a significant proportion are going out to work every day and potentially coming back covering every surface with the CV.
I'd go further than that. For a lot of comfortably off homeowners who can continue to work remotely - and especially if their wider family circle is managing to steer clear of the disease - life is probably better under lockdown than it was before this all started. I mean, it would feel awfully constricting and be ultimately unsustainable if it went on indefinitely, but as a short-term thing it has some aspects of a holiday. Lots of time with the kids, going out on the daily walk or bike ride in the nice sunny weather. Playtime, sunbathing and barbecues out in the garden. Work probably done on a flexible schedule with breaks when you feel like taking them. And above all, waving goodbye to the sheer hideousness of commuting, which is an immensely stressful and hugely expensive waste of time for the hundreds of thousands of people whom both employers and employees will now be twigging really don't, in this day and age, need to traipse in and out of London and other urban cores, just to go and sit in an office building in order to do their jobs.
For people in that category, if they and their families all get through this in one piece, then the Plague may end up having a substantial positive impact on both their net incomes and wider quality of life, because many of them will never go back to full-time commuting. They'll work entirely from home or only go into the office one day every week or two. The medium-term net movement of economic activity and leisure expenditure from the cities into their commuter belts (and, in the longer term, right out through the rest of the country) is likely to be considerable.
For those of us stuck in titchy homes, however, things aren't so smart and easy. We're relatively lucky - this is a small flat, but it's only in a little block of six and it's in a nice area - but if you're a whole family stuck on the 15th floor somewhere in a grotty, inner city ex-council estate then this must already be a testing and pretty miserable slog.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
I think that the answer to that question lies in sub-national variations, that is the extremely high concentration of Italian cases in Lombard by comparison to the more modest concentration in the UK by the time we experienced levels comparable as a whole to those in Italy. There's also the fact that Italy wasn't able to anticipate what hit in Lombardy, whereas the UK had several weeks warning of what was about to hit. Hence they did at least use the time available to build in additional capacity in London.
So I would not like a journalist to ask your question, because it would allow the eggheads to bask in wholly undeserved self-praise. The UK doesn't deserve any plaudits, because overall we've still been caught napping in too many areas despite the advance warning. Shame that we didn't prepare for mass testing (with the UK still having conducted fewer tests per capita than any other developed nation), or gear up earlier for predictable shortages of medical equipment (eg. ventilators) or PPE.
Do you think we should have shut our borders in February?
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
This is very interesting, thanks for posting. However I don't think it undermines the central point. It's not where the Commandments came from, it is what they achieved.
Didn't stop you Christianists from colonising or enslaving people on five continents.
I would like to a journalist to ask the eggheads do they know why it is that the NHS, despite starting with a lower capacity then many European nations, hasn't crashed, but we are running at the same level of deaths as the likes of Italy whose did.
Possibly because we've built these huge new temporary hospitals at the Excel Centre, NEC, etc.
But only the Excel is the only one being used and only for a few patients and the death numbers are historical, dating back up to a week ago.
The government and NHS appear to have done brilliantly expanding capacity within hospitals, but we started from a much lower level for things like ICU.
Now part is probably because of warning managed to empty out non-emergency cases, but still. I think it is worth exploring.
Unfortunately many of these emptied out non-emergency cases will become emergency cases in their own good time.
The purpose of the rules is to reduce transmission. It's the purpose that matters, not the rules themselves. Sunbathing, if you are more than 2 metres from anyone, doesn't cause transmission.
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
Sorry, you went to Italy in early March because, ho ho ho, what a lot of fuss about a silly old virus which kills so many fewer Italians than road deaths do (Italian road deaths: 3300 annually) and you are presenting yourself as someone whose independent judgment is such that adherence to the letter of the rules is not for you?
Seriously?
Please just do exactly what you are told to do.
I already know which tribe you are in!
Are you are so senile that you still do not see your beginning-of-March calculation, *even with hindsight,* as something to be even slightly ashamed of?
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
Why would he want to be President?
At the moment he can go where he wants, talk to whoever he wants and do whatever he wants.
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
Other friends of mine report the same
You missed out plenty of tapping the wifey...
I think for a lot of middle class professionals, whose jobs can be done from home and own large-ish houses with gardens, life is probably not that bad at all. More time with the family, no commuting etc.
I really wouldn't fancy being crammed in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months though, and where you know a significant proportion are going out to work every day and potentially coming back covering every surface with the CV.
I'd go further than that. For a lot of comfortably off homeowners who can continue to work remotely - and especially if their wider family circle is managing to steer clear of the disease - life is probably better under lockdown than it was before this all started. I mean, it would feel awfully constricting and be ultimately unsustainable if it went on indefinitely, but as a short-term thing it has some aspects of a holiday. Lots of time with the kids, going out on the daily walk or bike ride in the nice sunny weather. Playtime, sunbathing and barbecues out in the garden. Work probably done on a flexible schedule with breaks when you feel like taking them. And above all, waving goodbye to the sheer hideousness of commuting, which is an immensely stressful and hugely expensive waste of time for the hundreds of thousands of people whom both employers and employees will now be twigging really don't, in this day and age, need to traipse in and out of London and other urban cores, just to go and sit in an office building in order to do their jobs.
For people in that category, if they and their families all get through this in one piece, then the Plague may end up having a substantial positive impact on both their net incomes and wider quality of life, because many of them will never go back to full-time commuting. They'll work entirely from home or only go into the office one day every week or two. The medium-term net movement of economic activity and leisure expenditure from the cities into their commuter belts (and, in the longer term, right out through the rest of the country) is likely to be considerable.
For those of us stuck in titchy homes, however, things aren't so smart and easy. We're relatively lucky - this is a small flat, but it's only in a little block of six and it's in a nice area - but if you're a whole family stuck on the 15th floor somewhere in a grotty, inner city ex-council estate then this must already be a testing and pretty miserable slog.
I have had to self isolate away from home this week, and small glimpse into how much harder it is if you don't have the comfortable detached house / garden. In comparison, the previous 3-4 weeks at Chez Urquhart self isolating weren't really that hard. Mrs U might not be quite so pleased though, as she won't have the house to herself anymore!
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
Other friends of mine report the same
You missed out plenty of tapping the wifey...
I think for a lot of middle class professionals, whose jobs can be done from home and own large-ish houses with gardens, life is probably not that bad at all. More time with the family, no commuting etc.
I really wouldn't fancy being crammed in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months though, and where you know a significant proportion are going out to work every day and potentially coming back covering every surface with the CV.
Oh, of course. I cant imagine what it must be like for large families in urban flats. Or indeed two young people in a studio flat. Or a wife and a husband trapped in a dead marriage now trapped for real.
And then we might reach an Ecuador situation, where living people are literally trapped with the dead.....
Inshallah the UK does better than that.
I have never appreciated my garden so much as in the last two weeks. I am blessed.
He won't run, but I think if he ran as an independent he'd have a real chance. He's got credibility with both sides, a businessman billionaire who has spent a decade or more on social enterprise which isn't politically controversial to either side.
He feels a bit Branson/very soft Left/globalist and Remainy to me (and yes I know he's American but that sort).
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
Why would he want to be President?
At the moment he can go where he wants, talk to whoever he wants and do whatever he wants.
Why would he give that up?
Cos his country needs him? Otherwise another 4 years of Orange Man awaits. With the only other alternative, some old bloke who appears to be possible senile.
I’m doing loads of long (legal!) walks, getting plenty of fresh air and sunshine, eating lots of healthy home cooked food, doing exercise in my mini gym, and getting plenty of rest and sleep, and not worrying about work so much
As a result, I now feel healthier and calmer during this plague than I felt for several years before
Other friends of mine report the same
Perhaps you are financiallly secure Eadric.
My neighbour is chuffed to bits with lockdown. He said to me yesterday that he wants it to go on for 2-3 years because that will take him nicely to retirement as long as government continue to pay 80% of his salary.
RE: Chinese students abandoning UK Universities and leave a massive financial hole.
I think another risk is potential students realise that they are better off doing some sort of online further education, rather than racking up crazy debts moving away from home and starting a course that doesn't almost guarantee a financial pay off.
Could be tough times in the further education sector, how many people are teaching not very valuable courses at lower end universities, that could simply be replaced by a £9.99 Udemy course?
If so, and I think you are right, then that would improve the the efficiency of post school education, and consistently have overall positive effects to the economy
But the entire reason for sending 50% of to university was to hide young adult unemployment.
Universality education is for the most part a consumption good packaged and sold as an investment good, I.e. the benefit is having 3 or 4 years of fun, while telling yourself that this will help you long term, which encourages people to overpay, it may be fun and slightly improve your salary, but when you include 3 or 4 years when you are not working to the debt that you get at universality, its not worth it for a lot who now go.
Yep - I've got to the point where I can't see the benefit unless you know exactly what you want to do trouble is most 18 year olds don't.
The daughter who is off to university this year wants to do Film Composition and has got onto the best appropriate course. It has still taken her (and me) 9 months to convince my wife that a conservatoire was a better place than a proper (Russell Group) university as she is still thinks things are the same as they were back in the 90's.
Some of the former polys (for example) took the bit in their teeth and really changed. Others turned into degree mills of the worst type.
I have always thought that mandating going to university at 18 is a disaster for many.
I don't think Britons are intrinsically thicker than their peers in international competitors, in which much the same proportion of the population gets tertiary educated. In South Korea it is 70%. In a world where service and intellect industries are the future that level of education is to be expected, and needs paying for.
That many British universities are piss poor at educating students, while ripping off the government for fees is a slightly different issue to whether 50% of Brits should go to University.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Don't be absurd. Societies across the entire world whether they had heard of the Commandments or not have heard have the same basic common decency. The fact that you think it's got anything to do with the Commandments shows an absurd bias and ignorance of other cultures.
Do you think the Aborigines or Native Americans or others had no respect for parents and were thieving murderers until Christians civilised them?
Strange you didn't list the Incans, who were inordinately fond of human sacrifice, or the Romans, who fed people to wild animals in the arena as a form of mass entertainment. Why indeed do you think the Hebrews needed a commandment to stop killing people if they were already not doing it through this 'common decency' that we are magically born with? Your tendency to connect every outdated cultural practise (like first cousin marriage) back to religion, but to completely ignore the link between the Commandments and the teachings of Jesus and the current norms, values and laws that make modern society work, is shallow, hypocritical, and unscholarly.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
This is very interesting, thanks for posting. However I don't think it undermines the central point. It's not where the Commandments came from, it is what they achieved.
Didn't stop you Christianists from colonising or enslaving people on five continents.
Comments
Some activities such as bookshops and shops selling clothes for babies will be allowed to re-open.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/apr/09/le-cinq-paris-restaurant-review-jay-rayner
Though successive governments have prompted education as an industry in itself. So in the short to medium term there will be a fair amount of displaced, and maybe quite vocal lecturing and support staff.
Spanish authorities say they trust that plans to allow the return of nonessential workers to factories and construction sites next week won't cause a significant resurgence in coronavirus infections, as some scientists have warned.
The move would not see a return of commercial activity in restaurants or shops other than supermarkets, pharmacies or newsstands, but has raised questions about the timing in easing some restrictions as the outbreak remains intense.
"We are not under the impression that these measures will increase in an important way the transmission (of the virus)," the spokeswoman of Spain's health emergency coordination center, Maria Jose Sierra, said Friday. "We wouldn't be adopting them otherwise."
Some experts had warned that relaxing the two-week lockdown on a broader part of the manufacturing and construction sector comes too early.
Margarita del Val, a virologist from CSIC, Spain's main public scientific body, said that loosening the lockdown on industry is "hasty" and that any rollback needs to be be accompanied by a program to isolate new coronavirus carriers. Del Val supported the idea of a Europe-wide mobile app that shows the proximity of people to those who have tested positive.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52246319
This is a difficult but necessary decision for which I take all political responsibility.
The curbs on movement and the shutdown imposed on most shops and businesses across Italy were imposed on 9 March and were scheduled to expire on Monday.
Among a few exceptions to the lockdown, which will now run until 3 May, Conte said bookshops, stationers and shops selling children’s clothes could reopen from 14 April.
He also said the economic package put together by eurozone finance ministers on Thursday is “still insufficient”, adding Italy will continue to battle for the issuance of common debt through euro bonds.
Not the truth, not the right thing: saving face.
This is a big part of several East Asian cultures anyway (and it's corrosive as it means truth is suppressed, and therefore progress) but it's particularly acute in China. They have a totalitarian government too and we know how much they warp and manipulate the narrative to preserve the myths of themselves in power.
Look at the Soviet Union and Chernobyl.
Recent story in NYT about how in USA in 1918, cities that imposed quarantines & lock-downs earlier and more stringently, did better in the long run with respect to both public health and economic recovery, than cities where measures were less stringent and less timely.
For example, Los Angeles did better than San Francisco, in keeping death rates down AND in bouncing back in terms of jobs & business after the pandemic was over.
Same thing with Minneapolis & St Paul the Twin Cities of Minnesota, separated only by a city line.
Still, as we've seen, the extent to which people are following guidelines massively exceds expectations. Can't be too cross about it.
I think he's be branded pretty quickly as democrat in all but name.
not great work is an understatement
So I suspect I know more about the police than you.
And looks like their big jump in the dutch death rate is down to a single days peak on the 7th april.
But I have not done my own resurch on this.
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/announcements/392764-a-message-on-behalf-of-sir-kenny-dalglish-and-family
The daughter who is off to university this year wants to work in film composition and has got herself onto the best appropriate course. It has still taken her (and me) 9 months to convince my wife that a conservatoire was a better place than a proper (Russell Group) university as she is still thinks things are the same as they were back in the 90's.
I think for a lot of middle class professionals, whose jobs can be done from home and own large-ish houses with gardens, life is probably not that bad at all. More time with the family, no commuting etc.
I really wouldn't fancy being crammed in a one / two bed flat in a tower block for 3 months though, and where you know a significant proportion are going out to work every day and potentially coming back covering every surface with the CV.
Watch the video and then ask yourself - is it really that hard to stay inside?
Boise, Idaho, is home to about 200,000 people. That's a little smaller than Luton.
Cheyenne is the largest city in Wyoming. And it's smaller than Bedford.
Wyoming is 100,000 square miles. England is 50,000 square miles.
For example: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/05/21/british-people-sleep-less-theyd-like
I have always thought that mandating going to university at 18 is a disaster for many.
Rare to agree - but definitely.
For one thing, he is genuinely rich. And empathetic. And a good family man..
In fact it is hard to think of much the two have in common
On the blogs there seem to be two tribes. There are the sensible adults who can interpret the purpose of the rules and behave appropriately, and the parent/child types who are proto Stasi.
The reality is this is incredibly fast moving, unprecedented rate of deaths and while hospitals are fighting at near max capacity and the rest of us trying to hide away.
And it is also clear, that the ONS is going to pick up the data. There is no China style suppression going on.
https://houseoftruth.education/en/library/sacred-writings/egyptian-book-of-the-dead-42-negative-confessions
I have to go to work anyway (it can't be done from home,) so I consider the additional risk posed by going shopping twice a week, especially since the bunfight was replaced by orderly queueing to get into half-empty stores, to be fairly low.
Ultimately, social distancing is about reducing close contact with other people and, therefore, reducing risk. You can't eliminate risk altogether and you have to live your life - and things may even get more risky for people in my situation rather than less when the lockdown is eased, at least for a while. But what are we all meant to do?
We need, essentially, to keep buggering on and hope for the best. That's not an easy thing to do when you're as frightened as I am of bringing Covid home with me, but if I spent all my time cowering in the flat thinking about it then I'd be fired from my job, end up paranoid and depressed, and I'd still have to go out to get the stupid bloody shopping in the end anyway. Then if we do, hopefully, both get through this disaster in one piece then our lives would be blighted by the permanent loss of income, because I work in a very niche business and I'd probably end up either as a shelf-stacker or long-term unemployed if I got the sack.
This plague is going to be with us, in all probability, for a very long time, because there is no particular reason to suppose that the magic bullet - a vaccine - will be developed on anything less than a timescale of years and it might very well never come along at all. So we just have to learn to live with it as best we can.
And Sky showed some front line doctors working from 5/6am until 1am, 7 days a week. One guy had done that for the past 6 weeks, sleeping in his office. You are going to make mistakes when it gets to that sort of state.
The government and NHS appear to have done brilliantly expanding capacity within hospitals, but we started from a much lower level for things like ICU.
Now part is probably because of warning managed to empty out non-emergency cases, but still. I think it is worth exploring.
Would be interesting to have some other European comparisons.
My wife's niece is working on the front line in Toulon & we get weekly updates. She phoned us three weeks ago asking if we could send her some P2 or P3 respirators, continuous shortages of PPE in the hospitals there . They are receiving patients in the south from other parts of France which have run out of bed capacity.
At the beginning of this week they hit 10,000 tests per day.
They have been told that the EU tender for ventilators ,PPE etc.should be signed very soon & they should expect to get new ventlators in July. They currently have 8,000 ventilators.
Watching an animal eat isn't very interesting.
So I would not like a journalist to ask your question, because it would allow the eggheads to bask in wholly undeserved self-praise. The UK doesn't deserve any plaudits, because overall we've still been caught napping in too many areas despite the advance warning. Shame that we didn't prepare for mass testing (with the UK still having conducted fewer tests per capita than any other developed nation), or gear up earlier for predictable shortages of medical equipment (eg. ventilators) or PPE.
Seriously?
Please just do exactly what you are told to do.
For people in that category, if they and their families all get through this in one piece, then the Plague may end up having a substantial positive impact on both their net incomes and wider quality of life, because many of them will never go back to full-time commuting. They'll work entirely from home or only go into the office one day every week or two. The medium-term net movement of economic activity and leisure expenditure from the cities into their commuter belts (and, in the longer term, right out through the rest of the country) is likely to be considerable.
For those of us stuck in titchy homes, however, things aren't so smart and easy. We're relatively lucky - this is a small flat, but it's only in a little block of six and it's in a nice area - but if you're a whole family stuck on the 15th floor somewhere in a grotty, inner city ex-council estate then this must already be a testing and pretty miserable slog.
At the moment he can go where he wants, talk to whoever he wants and do whatever he wants.
Why would he give that up?
Moses came down from Mount Sinai with the commandments. "Good and bad news, lads," he said. "I got him down to ten, but adultery is still among them."
BTW, I streamed 'Jesus Christ, Superstar' from youtube. Very good. Even with Chemical Spice as Mary Magdalene.
My neighbour is chuffed to bits with lockdown. He said to me yesterday that he wants it to go on for 2-3 years because that will take him nicely to retirement as long as government continue to pay 80% of his salary.
That many British universities are piss poor at educating students, while ripping off the government for fees is a slightly different issue to whether 50% of Brits should go to University.