So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The only proper comparison can be made is with hospital deaths. The UK has reported the worst anywhere in Europe . That’s it . And given the UK had an advantage in seeing what was coming and more time to prepare then that’s very poor .
You seem to want to spin this but that looks a bit desperate .
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
It's a miracle! Lift the lockdown tomorrow ....
No. There is a lag in the figures. And it is thus not helpful to look at things in isolation.
This is why I find some of the comments by people like Casino about the police...I just think if they spent time with them, they might think differently...
In my career..I've worked with the police, operationally, front facing and latterly strategic...
Even the senior management have a story to tell....they've all walked the walk...they've worked the night shifts and rotas.....and it's probably as grim work as there is......
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
TBH, I think a lot is based on that UW projection, which has made very odd assumptions about the number of ICU beds available (they assume 799 are available in the entire country, which is... strange). Given this, it projected that we would need (on average) > 3 times more ICU beds than we actually are (as of 8th April)...
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too (albeit Sweden is still not in lockdown).
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average</blockquote
We should note the lag in the latest daily figures, there is accumulation there of some stuff from days even weeks back.
On the rate of increase of cases & deaths per million of the population we are on a similar trajectory to France.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The only proper comparison can be made is with hospital deaths. The UK has reported the worst anywhere in Europe . That’s it . And given the UK had an advantage in seeing what was coming and more time to prepare then that’s very poor .
You seem to want to spin this but that looks a bit desperate .
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
It's a miracle! Lift the lockdown tomorrow ....
No. There is a lag in the figures. And it is thus not helpful to look at things in isolation.
But it's a fall of more than 80% in a single day!!!!
Cruises will continue, especially for older people and the retired for whom they offer a great opportunity to travel to multiple places at once, catered for with little effort required from the passengers and with plenty of other people for company
Plus the various talks on board, often from genuine experts. And (if desired) a formal dining experience - Captain's Table. You don't get this in any other type of holiday. It's not for everyone. It's not for me. But loads of people love it and I see no compelling reason why (after a decent interval) it wouldn't be ahoy there me hearties and full steam ahead (again).
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
Do you know what study it was based from? I have been searching since you posted. I can’t find anything on Rai either.
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
It's petty and pathetic. Cornwall Council and the police in Cornwall coming across as complete morons. The fact is the great majority of people are being sensible and respecting the rules. No need to track down every single one of the few transgressors. We are not in a police state - yet.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
It's not based on that dodgy report from those Americans?
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The only proper comparison can be made is with hospital deaths. The UK has reported the worst anywhere in Europe . That’s it . And given the UK had an advantage in seeing what was coming and more time to prepare then that’s very poor .
You seem to want to spin this but that looks a bit desperate .
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
It's a miracle! Lift the lockdown tomorrow ....
No. There is a lag in the figures. And it is thus not helpful to look at things in isolation.
But it's a fall of more than 80% in a single day!!!!
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
TBH, I think a lot is based on that UW projection, which has made very odd assumptions about the number of ICU beds available (they assume 799 are available in the entire country, which is... strange). Given this, it projected that we would need (on average) > 3 times more ICU beds than we actually are (as of 8th April)...
I did think the UW projection probably is a reason....and maybe latched onto....but it might not be...
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too (albeit Sweden is still not in lockdown).
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
As France and the UK are the 2nd and 3rd biggest populations in western Europe no real surprise there.
The odd one out is Germany, 1st in terms of population in western Europe but because of mass testing below France, the UK, Spain and Italy in terms of Covid 19 deaths
This is why I find some of the comments by people like Casino about the police...I just think if they spent time with them, they might think differently...
In my career..I've worked with the police, operationally, front facing and latterly strategic...
Even the senior management have a story to tell....they've all walked the walk...they've worked the night shifts and rotas.....and it's probably as grim work as there is......
Which kind of makes you think they would look pretty kindly on people quietly walking round a supermarket buying birthday cards and bedsocks, or sitting down thinking beautiful thoughts in the sunshine as they do their mental exercise and not biting policemen. Most of us are really keen to be on their side but occasionally the dimmer ones make it a little difficult to be patient with them.
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
You are the one who seems to want to spin this and to score points.
It really isn't a helpful position to take.
But there most definitely were deaths yesterday which were not included in that 140, but will be today or tomorrow or sometime soon. It really isn't a helpful position to take looking at the number of people who died yesterday and were reported to have been a COVID death on the same day, throwing away all the other data.
I fail to see why a tighter definition is needed? After all sunbathing or picknicking alone in the park keeps greater social distancing than jogging, cycling or walking through it with a group of other people.
How long do you you think they would be on their own? Within two hours the park would be packed With people doing the same thing, the kids would organize a footy game and the adults would pool their booze.
Quite. The problem with the sunbathers and picnickers has nothing to do with the nature of the activity per se and everything to do with population density and interaction.
If you could guarantee that the total number of such individuals and little household groups scattered across a park was only about six, and they were all spaced a hundred metres apart, then nobody would care. But because lots of people all turn up to do the activity at once then social distancing becomes very difficult. Even if the adults keep apart from each other religiously then you can bet they'll struggle to prevent the kids from running around with each other.
The best thing to do is to get people to keep moving about and, therefore, to stop the parks from getting too crowded.
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The only proper comparison can be made is with hospital deaths. The UK has reported the worst anywhere in Europe . That’s it . And given the UK had an advantage in seeing what was coming and more time to prepare then that’s very poor .
You seem to want to spin this but that looks a bit desperate .
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
It's a miracle! Lift the lockdown tomorrow ....
No. There is a lag in the figures. And it is thus not helpful to look at things in isolation.
But it's a fall of more than 80% in a single day!!!!
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
It's not based on that dodgy report from those Americans?
I dunno. We’re going to take a hit but I’m not sure why Tyson is relying so heavily on a second hand Italian news report to say we are going to do worse than anyone.
I fail to see why a tighter definition is needed? After all sunbathing or picknicking alone in the park keeps greater social distancing than jogging, cycling or walking through it with a group of other people.
Because the basic guidance is *essential* trips out only. Exercise is a category of essential.
If sunbathing or picnicking were allowed it would be the same as no lock down
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
The reported deaths in English hospitals for yesterday was actually 140. The other deaths occurred before then and are only now being recorded.
You are the one who seems to want to spin this and to score points.
It really isn't a helpful position to take.
But there most definitely were deaths yesterday which were not included in that 140, but will be today or tomorrow or sometime soon. It really isn't a helpful position to take looking at the number of people who died yesterday and were reported to have been a COVID death on the same day, throwing away all the other data.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
Do you know what study it was based from? I have been searching since you posted. I can’t find anything on Rai either.
I'll ask them...they cited TV news...I presume Rai, could be a Berlusconi Channel like Canale....
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
It's petty and pathetic. Cornwall Council and the police in Cornwall coming across as complete morons. The fact is the great majority of people are being sensible and respecting the rules. No need to track down every single one of the few transgressors. We are not in a police state - yet.
They do have troible with emmets in Cornwall, though.
BBC are reporting that Cornwall Council are encouraging people to report those who are seen entering their second home.
Whilst I do understand the need for proper safeguards and controls, encouraging neighbours to spy on one another is not something I want to see become commonplace in our society.
Last night, there was a car parked outside of where I live that has no connection to the locality as far as I can tell. It was there for several hours - so it wasn't someone just dropping off supplies to help someone.
I didn't report it - because that is not how my mind works.
Perhaps I am watching too much of Spooks on iPlayer - but I am wary of this trend
It's petty and pathetic. Cornwall Council and the police in Cornwall coming across as complete morons. The fact is the great majority of people are being sensible and respecting the rules. No need to track down every single one of the few transgressors. We are not in a police state - yet.
What it is showing is that there is a seething undercurrent of resentment towards tourists. You know, those tourists who totally underpin the Cornish economy. This virus is just the perfect sanctimonious outlet.
And then they moan about the number who go to Spain....
But, rationally, lying down sunbathing (alone or with members of your own household) is far less likely to spread the virus than running around. If you want to be really careful exercise at home where you won't be breathing heavily in anyone else's airspace, then go to the park for fresh air and to see some greenery - which has proven health benefits.
You can't do any useful cardiovascular exercise at home, unless you're lucky enough to have found yourself at the start of this outbreak in possession of at least one piece of bulky, expensive stationary kit (e.g. a treadmill or exercise bike) on which to do it, which means in turn that you must also have the large amount of space to house such a piece of clutter.
For a large slice of the population, these are luxuries that are beyond our means. We can't even jog round and round in circles in our gardens until we get dizzy, because we don't have those either. Nor am I convinced that passing someone at speed is likely to be any more hazardous to either you or them than sitting still in the same place for a couple of hours, once the persons in question are sufficiently densely packed, as is the risk if a park becomes sufficiently crowded.
Of course, whatever risks there are to outdoor exercise can be mitigated by other means, such as pacing the streets instead of going to the park in the first place, or going out early or late - although I don't think that makes much difference outside of some very densely populated city areas in any event. I pass very few other people when I'm out running, regardless of what time of day it is.
Have to say that this is complete BS. I do 30-40 minutes in my lounge every day. Press Ups Sit Ups Burpees Leg Kicks Sprint on the spot Lifting small weights Step on chair etc etc
Its easy to find exercises online and you could literally spend as long as you want without repetition and getting bored. Fittest i've been in decades (except when i hurt my calf going full on!)
Hmmmmm... I'm sure that jumping up and down on the spot for an hour every day won't drive me mad (or, for that matter, my poor downstairs neighbours having the rhythmic thumping echoing through their ceiling.) And it's still no substitute for stretching your limbs properly. Or not being effectively imprisoned.
People really do need to get out, especially those of us not fortunate enough both to still have jobs and to have to go out and do them, because they cannot be done from home. Without outdoor exercise, children would be totally incarcerated and home workers would also be locked away completely, except for one or two trips to and from the supermarket each week (which is a pretty grim experience itself nowadays.)
I know the consequences of being sealed in a small home for months from living with a member of the shielded group and being friends with another. It's very destructive, demoralising and very hard to stick to. If we aren't very careful then the long term consequences of the measures being taken to squash this disease will end up being worse than those of the disease itself.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too (albeit Sweden is still not in lockdown).
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
As France and the UK are the 2nd and 3rd biggest populations in western Europe no real surprise there.
The odd one out is Germany, 1st in terms of population in western Europe but because of mass testing below France, the UK, Spain and Italy in terms of Covid 19 deaths
I would stop short of it being called "mass testing" in Germany, but yes there is a lot more testing here than in many other countries. That is somethiing that governments can influence to a large extent. The UK has a strong chemical industry and thousands of labs to do the testing, so lack of kit/testing capacity is only an excuse for a week or two.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
Can you give me a link to the report?
Apparently it was a feature on Rai News (from the last couple of days)....two of my friends noticed it enough to WhatsApp me about it...
It's not based on that dodgy report from those Americans?
I dunno. We’re going to take a hit but I’m not sure why Tyson is relying so heavily on a second hand Italian news report to say we are going to do worse than anyone.
I'm saying..because the political response is critical....Tuscany now testing more widely, and trying to isolate positives in hotels...this was the latter approach in Wuhan...
Just taking a hit is not acceptable if there are measures should be doing that could save thousands of lives...
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too.
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
I had contacts last night from friends in Italy who were asking what the hell was going wrong in the UK? Rai Uno was reporting the UK is set to do the worst out all the Western European economies...
Perhaps though the request for vets to work for the NHS tells us that it isn't quite all right..
TBH, I think a lot is based on that UW projection, which has made very odd assumptions about the number of ICU beds available (they assume 799 are available in the entire country, which is... strange). Given this, it projected that we would need (on average) > 3 times more ICU beds than we actually are (as of 8th April)...
What is interesting about that model is that it predicts the past wrong.
And no, they haven't changed the number of ICU beds - still 799 They are also stating total beds at 17,765 - not sure what category. I would *presume* this means for non-ICU COVID19 patients.
For the record, I believe that there were 4K of ICU beds in *England* before this - this takes no account of the mobilisation of the private sector or the new temporary hospitals.
The drafting of vets was part of the original pandemic plan - as with aircraft cabin crew and as with bringing in final year medical students. All three measures have been taken in Germany, I believe. The idea is to have as many extra hands for basic tasks as possible, to reduce load on the front line medics.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
You keep spouting this bollocks and you keep on being told with evidence that you are wrong
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
The first pledge I think Boris should junk after this is the one to increase police numbers by 20,000 officers. The way they've carried on during this crisis that could prove to be extremely unpopular and it's an obvious way of keeping a lid on spending.
They've demonstrated they have plenty of resources to interfere with our lives as it is when they really want to - so all those old excuses that they're too busy to investigate a burglary or anti social behaviour can go straight out the window.
They have the resources now because crime is probably at an historic low.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
Round here, it seems the pattern is family cycle rides with one parent at the front, and one at the back.
They seem to keep themselves to themselves and generally present no problem to anyone.
The only issue is fools bimbling alone the middle of the pavement - I wait until they are 10m away and then gently say hello. With rude words.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
I fail to see why a tighter definition is needed? After all sunbathing or picknicking alone in the park keeps greater social distancing than jogging, cycling or walking through it with a group of other people.
Because the basic guidance is *essential* trips out only. Exercise is a category of essential.
If sunbathing or picnicking were allowed it would be the same as no lock down
But why is exercising essential but spending time in the park not exercising not essential? . Despite what some people cliam, it is possible to exercise at home (hence the popularity of exercise DVDs) . And I'm sure I saw a study last year saying that spending 20 minutes a day doing nothing in a park has more health benefits than exercising.
Does it need a ban ? The two activities hardly seem complementary.
They need banning because they do not respect 2 meters....many of them...on our walk today I had to tell at least 10 to make some kind of assessment of what 2 meters is....
There's a gap in the market for a costume that extends in a two metre radius outside the body (maybe big circular clown pants or something). Put in on and leave the house and, voila, you are automatically abiding by the regulations.
I saw a suggestion of one of those giant hamster balls
As bad as this might sound to the wallflowers it isn't going to be deaths totals that will make decisions on easing restrictions, its hospitalisation levels and confirmed infection rates.
If you work on the assumption that lots of people will end up getting this thing anyway then people will die whether over a year or 6 months or whatever, its just about the timespan. Everything so far is a delay action to prep the healthcare system. The temporary hospital facilities will exist for some time after restrictions start lifting.
Return to relative normal will be September, notable easing sometime in June.
I posted a few nights ago a daily updated statistical research piece that looks at the trajectory of deaths and cases per head of population and the similiarity in the pattern of rate of increase across multiple nations is.remarkable.
You can't do any useful cardiovascular exercise at home, unless you're lucky enough to have found yourself at the start of this outbreak in possession of at least one piece of bulky, expensive stationary kit (e.g. a treadmill or exercise bike) on which to do it, which means in turn that you must also have the large amount of space to house such a piece of clutter.
Have to say that this is complete BS. I do 30-40 minutes in my lounge every day. Press Ups
[snip] Its easy to find exercises online and you could literally spend as long as you want without repetition and getting bored. Fittest i've been in decades (except when i hurt my calf going full on!)
Hmmmmm... I'm sure that jumping up and down on the spot for an hour every day won't drive me mad (or, for that matter, my poor downstairs neighbours having the rhythmic thumping echoing through their ceiling.) And it's still no substitute for stretching your limbs properly. Or not being effectively imprisoned.
You have massively shifted your argument from "nobody can" to "yes, you can but it would drive me mad"
As bad as this might sound to the wallflowers it isn't going to be deaths totals that will make decisions on easing restrictions, its hospitalisation levels and confirmed infection rates.
If you work on the assumption that lots of people will end up getting this thing anyway then people will die whether over a year or 6 months or whatever, its just about the timespan. Everything so far is a delay action to prep the healthcare system. The temporary hospital facilities will exist for some time after restrictions start lifting.
Return to relative normal will be September, notable easing sometime in June.
I posted a few nights ago a daily updated statistical research piece that looks at the trajectory of deaths and cases per head of population and the similiarity in the pattern of rate of increase across multiple nations is.remarkable.
The UK is indeed distinctly average in that pile.
But, but, but we are the worst ....... and it's all Boris's fault
As bad as this might sound to the wallflowers it isn't going to be deaths totals that will make decisions on easing restrictions, its hospitalisation levels and confirmed infection rates.
If you work on the assumption that lots of people will end up getting this thing anyway then people will die whether over a year or 6 months or whatever, its just about the timespan. Everything so far is a delay action to prep the healthcare system. The temporary hospital facilities will exist for some time after restrictions start lifting.
Return to relative normal will be September, notable easing sometime in June.
I posted a few nights ago a daily updated statistical research piece that looks at the trajectory of deaths and cases per head of population and the similiarity in the pattern of rate of increase across multiple nations is.remarkable.
The UK is indeed distinctly average in that pile.
I think this is a very fair summary (both that we are in the middle of the pack) and in terms of the timeline.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Not the first time he has spouted incorrect figures for Sweden
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Not the first time he has spouted incorrect figures for Sweden
You can't do any useful cardiovascular exercise at home, unless you're lucky enough to have found yourself at the start of this outbreak in possession of at least one piece of bulky, expensive stationary kit (e.g. a treadmill or exercise bike) on which to do it, which means in turn that you must also have the large amount of space to house such a piece of clutter.
Have to say that this is complete BS. I do 30-40 minutes in my lounge every day. Press Ups
[snip] Its easy to find exercises online and you could literally spend as long as you want without repetition and getting bored. Fittest i've been in decades (except when i hurt my calf going full on!)
Hmmmmm... I'm sure that jumping up and down on the spot for an hour every day won't drive me mad (or, for that matter, my poor downstairs neighbours having the rhythmic thumping echoing through their ceiling.) And it's still no substitute for stretching your limbs properly. Or not being effectively imprisoned.
You have massively shifted your argument from "nobody can" to "yes, you can but it would drive me mad"
Does it need a ban ? The two activities hardly seem complementary.
They need banning because they do not respect 2 meters....many of them...on our walk today I had to tell at least 10 to make some kind of assessment of what 2 meters is....
There's a gap in the market for a costume that extends in a two metre radius outside the body (maybe big circular clown pants or something). Put in on and leave the house and, voila, you are automatically abiding by the regulations.
I saw a suggestion of one of those giant hamster balls
1) Eliminates the social distancing problem. 2) With an added HEPA filter - eliminates transmission of the virus 3) The outside can be hosed down with bleach solution 4) PE injuries eliminated 5) Knife crime among students eliminated 6) School busing simplified - use a dump truck 7) Violence between student elimnated 8) Violence against teachers eliminated 9) Allegations against teachers made impossible/ridiculous 10) Truanting made very difficult - hard to escape school in a 4m ball, if all the exits are 1m wide.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
Mr. Tyson, and others, do remember to take gardening equipment and furniture back inside (whether that be shed, garage, or house) to prevent it from being nicked.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
Does it need a ban ? The two activities hardly seem complementary.
They need banning because they do not respect 2 meters....many of them...on our walk today I had to tell at least 10 to make some kind of assessment of what 2 meters is....
If they are part of the same household then you don't need to respect the two meter rule.
My household is precisely 2 people and a dog...not even a proper dog, a walking accessory called Trotsky.. though she is much loved....
Joggers are spluttering, coughing, wheezing and panting as they heave past you not respecting your space...ban them, ban them now, and ban them forever....and if they carry on, lock them up and put them in that sex offenders prison...
You realise that you also can step to one side?
Why should he? If joggers jogged on the road there'd be no problem.
Sure, but for those that don't that is always a fall-back option.
Not if the joggers are coming up to you from behind. If you're overtaking someone it should be on you to move around the person you are overtaking.
If I want to when I'm driving I don't stay in the same lane as the vehicle I'm overtaking.
Fair enough, but I thought the risk of catching it would be higher if they are coming towards you. Having the virus on the back of your head shouldn't be as bad as having it on your face. By either party stepping to one side, the risk is reduced.
Actually there's evidence that having a jogger running ahead of you is dangerous too since what they're exhaling while running hovers in the air more and then you walk through it catching it in their slipstream.
If joggers only run on roads then its cars that are in their slipstream and they ought to be more than 2 metres apart!
Interesting, if counterintuitive. This could all be solved if people were just considerate, but I will concede that is not always the case!
In my experience ordinary cyclists using their bikes primarily to get from A to B are generally considerate of others. The lycra-clads however are the most inconsiderate people I encounter when I am out and about either as a pedestrian or in a car. They act as the onus is for everyone else to get out of their way
You can't do any useful cardiovascular exercise at home, unless you're lucky enough to have found yourself at the start of this outbreak in possession of at least one piece of bulky, expensive stationary kit (e.g. a treadmill or exercise bike) on which to do it, which means in turn that you must also have the large amount of space to house such a piece of clutter.
Have to say that this is complete BS. I do 30-40 minutes in my lounge every day. Press Ups
[snip] Its easy to find exercises online and you could literally spend as long as you want without repetition and getting bored. Fittest i've been in decades (except when i hurt my calf going full on!)
Hmmmmm... I'm sure that jumping up and down on the spot for an hour every day won't drive me mad (or, for that matter, my poor downstairs neighbours having the rhythmic thumping echoing through their ceiling.) And it's still no substitute for stretching your limbs properly. Or not being effectively imprisoned.
You have massively shifted your argument from "nobody can" to "yes, you can but it would drive me mad"
Not really. These are qualitatively different forms of exercise in any event (although the 'it would drive me and the neighbours bonkers' argument also stands on its own merit.)
I can run 10K without too much difficulty. Get me to do bloody push-ups or jump up and down on the spot for any length of time, however, and my muscles will be sore and my joints knackered in no time, and I won't get the exercise that I require.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
You could have written exactly that message at the same point about Italy...
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Still wrong to sack people for this no matter how obnoxious their comments are. I can understand the union wanting to distance themselves and probably some sort of punishment but taking away someone's livelihood for speaking their minds just seems wrong to me. Same with the idiot Mayor the other day. Right to sack her from her political opposition where she is supposed to be representing her whole community but wrong to sack her from her job as well.
I doubt Toby sees it this way though. Courage of convictions doesn't seem to be one of his strong points.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
So you are saying that because the current restrictions are not working we should add new restrictions in case they might work?
Oddly perhaps, I don't think Bob Crow would have posted that.
Bob Crowe and Boris Johnson got on very well, so well that Boris Johnson's staff banned Boris Johnson from negotiating with Bob Crowe because he always gave Bob Crowe what he wanted.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
Vodka, Malc? Take it that's a translation, or the local SNP Committee will be taking action.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening. I went out for my daily exercise and shop today and it was almost like a normal weekend day in the sun in this part of NW London.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That's not the infection rate. The overwhelming majority of those people were infected weeks ago...
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
You could have written exactly that message at the same point about Italy...
No. The rate of new cases peaked in Italy about three weeks ago, less than two weeks after the lockdown.
I’d agree, were it not for the fact that Russian TV has purported to put out new coverage of him that is apparently a month old. Odd.
I wish to dissociate myself from this comment in advance but it would perhaps not be the worst thing that has ever happened in recorded history if the virus and its consequent respiratory disease were to lay low some of these "strongmen" types who plague the planet politic at this moment in time.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The messaging given at the Government daily briefings for the last few days is that the boffins are cautiously optimistic that the lockdown is starting to work.
Nobody has suggested so far that a significant tightening of the lockdown would result in a significant improvement of health outcomes over and above those already being achieved.
There is no point in enacting additional measures, which will cause damage in other ways, just so that the authorities can be seen to be "doing something."
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
I`m wondering whether the criticisms of joggers and cyclists that copiously populate this thread are being made by people who already disliked joggers and cyclists (i.e. before Covid-19)?
I'm a jogger...I can still do 8 min mile pace for 5 or 6 miles, possibly more....and low 7 min mile pace for upto 3 miles
There are though a significant amount of joggers here though who do not respect social distance....
There are a very significant number of people that you run past who have no spatial awareness and string themselves across the width or paths or lanes. I have a regular circuit that I have been doing for years and I have never seen so many people on it walking even at night. They aren't all family parties either unless the parents and kids are all about the same age....
They are called arseholes normally
We see quite a few obvious family parties of cyclists round here. Came back about 30 mins ago from my hours walk round the small town where I live and, other than around the convenience store, it was eerily quiet. All three pubs, which would normally have been noisy at this time, were closed and quiet.
I have had to make do with being out in the garden. Got the garden furniture out and planted a few flowers. Relaxing now with a vodka and listening to the birdsong.
Vodka, Malc? Take it that's a translation, or the local SNP Committee will be taking action.
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down.
How would we know if the infection rate had gone down?
A large reduction in hospital admissions leading to a reduction in positive test results. That clearly isn't happening.
Are hospital admissions going up or down? Does anyone know?
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That consistency is a encouraging sign, The rate of increase is steady, if not falling slightly, and shows much the same pattern as Italy did at this stage. That is what is important. It will plateau (it could be said to be doing so already) that and then start falling. And we have not had today’s figures yet.
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
The lockdown takes 2 weeks to show up in the death rate.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I'm not talking about the death rate, I mean the infection rate. It is constantly at 4-6k extra people per day and not falling.
That will mostly be more testing, not necessarily more infections, (it could also be both)
We are currently in the worst of both worlds with this almost voluntary lock down. We have taken all of the economic pain and yet the infection rate hasn't gone down. We must tighten the lockdown further, even for a short period of time.
Yes, I fear you may be correct, with the caveat that it is still too soon to be sure of the effect of our half-hearted lockdown. I have always advocated an immediate, full lockdown, perhaps enforced by the army, as the best option. This would hopefully have had a rapid effect in stifling the spread of the disease, and by now we could have been starting to relax the lockdown. Instead, though, we may have, as you say, the worst of both worlds: a never-ending, economy-destroying semi-lockdown that grinds down our patience and fails to contain the virus.
Comments
In my career..I've worked with the police, operationally, front facing and latterly strategic...
Even the senior management have a story to tell....they've all walked the walk...they've worked the night shifts and rotas.....and it's probably as grim work as there is......
Give them something for the media to, er, really get their teeth into....
WWHHHHOOOOOPPPEEEEEEEE!
Bonkers
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
The odd one out is Germany, 1st in terms of population in western Europe but because of mass testing below France, the UK, Spain and Italy in terms of Covid 19 deaths
But there most definitely were deaths yesterday which were not included in that 140, but will be today or tomorrow or sometime soon. It really isn't a helpful position to take looking at the number of people who died yesterday and were reported to have been a COVID death on the same day, throwing away all the other data.
WHHOOOPEEEE!!!!
LET'S GO AND HAVE A PICNIC !!!!!
If sunbathing or picnicking were allowed it would be the same as no lock down
And then they moan about the number who go to Spain....
Bringing to mind Keith Richards for some reason.
People really do need to get out, especially those of us not fortunate enough both to still have jobs and to have to go out and do them, because they cannot be done from home. Without outdoor exercise, children would be totally incarcerated and home workers would also be locked away completely, except for one or two trips to and from the supermarket each week (which is a pretty grim experience itself nowadays.)
I know the consequences of being sealed in a small home for months from living with a member of the shielded group and being friends with another. It's very destructive, demoralising and very hard to stick to. If we aren't very careful then the long term consequences of the measures being taken to squash this disease will end up being worse than those of the disease itself.
Just taking a hit is not acceptable if there are measures should be doing that could save thousands of lives...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
And no, they haven't changed the number of ICU beds - still 799
They are also stating total beds at 17,765 - not sure what category. I would *presume* this means for non-ICU COVID19 patients.
For the record, I believe that there were 4K of ICU beds in *England* before this - this takes no account of the mobilisation of the private sector or the new temporary hospitals.
The drafting of vets was part of the original pandemic plan - as with aircraft cabin crew and as with bringing in final year medical students. All three measures have been taken in Germany, I believe. The idea is to have as many extra hands for basic tasks as possible, to reduce load on the front line medics.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
So give it a rest eh
They seem to keep themselves to themselves and generally present no problem to anyone.
The only issue is fools bimbling alone the middle of the pavement - I wait until they are 10m away and then gently say hello. With rude words.
World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Edit: it actually has a name!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zorbing
If you work on the assumption that lots of people will end up getting this thing anyway then people will die whether over a year or 6 months or whatever, its just about the timespan. Everything so far is a delay action to prep the healthcare system. The temporary hospital facilities will exist for some time after restrictions start lifting.
Return to relative normal will be September, notable easing sometime in June.
I posted a few nights ago a daily updated statistical research piece that looks at the trajectory of deaths and cases per head of population and the similiarity in the pattern of rate of increase across multiple nations is.remarkable.
The UK is indeed distinctly average in that pile.
Active cases: 98.273 (+1.396) including 3.497 (-108) in ICU
Deaths: 18.849 (+570)
Healed/discharged: 30.455 (+1.985)
Total cases 147.577 (+3.951 new)
1) Eliminates the social distancing problem.
2) With an added HEPA filter - eliminates transmission of the virus
3) The outside can be hosed down with bleach solution
4) PE injuries eliminated
5) Knife crime among students eliminated
6) School busing simplified - use a dump truck
7) Violence between student elimnated
8) Violence against teachers eliminated
9) Allegations against teachers made impossible/ridiculous
10) Truanting made very difficult - hard to escape school in a 4m ball, if all the exits are 1m wide.
I can run 10K without too much difficulty. Get me to do bloody push-ups or jump up and down on the spot for any length of time, however, and my muscles will be sore and my joints knackered in no time, and I won't get the exercise that I require.
This has been the experience of all the countries that lock down, I believe.
I doubt Toby sees it this way though. Courage of convictions doesn't seem to be one of his strong points.
PS: Scotland was only around 40
Nobody has suggested so far that a significant tightening of the lockdown would result in a significant improvement of health outcomes over and above those already being achieved.
There is no point in enacting additional measures, which will cause damage in other ways, just so that the authorities can be seen to be "doing something."