Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
And getting a "we're following the science" answer - so Singapore and all the others who are have got it wrong?
I think it is a far east culture thing
No, I think its "following the flu pandemic" plan and they haven't updated it for a much more infectious and lethal pandemic.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
I have no problem quarantining new arrivals for 14 days and an surprised it is not happening but on the subject of masks I have only seen a handful worn in our area since this crisis began, including in hospital, A & E, and our surgery
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Haven't people had enough time to get back home by now. The least we could do is actually state a repatriation/freight only rule.
In all seriousness, there have been some stories of people who are in countries were the lockdowns haven't allowed them to even leave their hotel or hostel, let alone get to an airport to be repatriated.
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
How's Mrs G?
TSE , She is not too bad but not great, obviously cannot get to see Doctor's at present , her lungs still not great and the heart flutter caused by illness treatment delayed. Doing not too bad but the steroids and other treatments have lots of side affects , but all in all gievn the situation I think she is doing well though she might not agree. Looks like it will be a long slog to get back to being healthy, doctors did say a year was likely. Thank you for asking.
“ At the end of last week, the Prime Minister was beginning to wonder if the country was taking his advice too much to heart. He asked us to stay at home - and we have. At each daily press conference, medical and scientific advisers talk about the plunge in use of transport and how well rules are being observed. What they don’t say is that this was not quite in their original plan. Government modellers didn’t expect such obedience: the expected workers to carry on and at least a million pupils to be left in school by parents.”
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
Really? I am sure that Ur-Nammu and Hammurabi would both disagree with you there.
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
How's Mrs G?
TSE , She is not too bad but not great, obviously cannot get to see Doctor's at present , her lungs still not great and the heart flutter caused by illness treatment delayed. Doing not too bad but the steroids and other treatments have lots of side affects , but all in all gievn the situation I think she is doing well though she might not agree. Looks like it will be a long slog to get back to being healthy, doctors did say a year was likely. Thank you for asking.
Thanks, make sure you look after yourself as well, I know how much of a toll it can be looking after a loved one.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Albeit, if you'd quoted the same figure yesterday it would have been 43% and then 52% the day before that...
I think we're headed in the right direction.
My own hunch is lockdown will last until mid to end May, then we'll have some restrictions lifted, but a lot of social distancing in place for a while (such as one in one out in shops) and things back to normalish in August/September but with the proviso we'll have strict lockdown if people stop act like twats later on in the year.
Schools should be opening far sooner than that - the government has been clear their closure has little benefit in supressing the virus, and it does more economic damage than any other measure. I would expect to see movement on that as soon as we see sustained improvement in the death figures.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
I suspect there's a major worldview difference here.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Funny, Tobes seem to think him being pushed out of his education post 'cos of him exercising free speech as persecution rather than a demonstration of freedom.
FWIW I thought Young was treated harshly, but that's life. I'd note that Young was sacked for talking about ideas, whilst the union boss has gone for talking about a person.
There's a famous quote about that...
'Ideas' is an interesting way to describe tweeting about Helen Mirren's, Claudia Winkelman's and Danny Boyle's wife's (among others) tits. I'd assume you'd accept that they're people nevertheless.
Still, Tobes had his supporters as well as his knockers.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
I suspect there's a major worldview difference here.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Among others, less so.
If I was in New York, suspected I had Covid-19 and could get on a plane to a place with an effectively free health service...
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
I suspect there's a major worldview difference here.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Among others, less so.
If I was in New York, suspected I had Covid-19 and could get on a plane to a place with an effectively free health service...
You can probably count the number of people who actually did that on one hand.
These are only preliminary conclusions from 400 out of 1,000 tests. There are still more tests to be evaluated from the Gangelt study.
The Munich study (metropolitan population pattern, 3,000 households=5,000 tests) had started last Sunday. The testing hasn't yet concluded. No results published yet.
Once these (and maybe some others that are currently in preparation) are evaluated we may be on firmer ground regarding conclusions.
Also worth noting that the Gangelt study picked a place that was known to have a high concentration of cases, I guess about the highest %wise in Germany (and also where the epidemic started earlier) so 15% there already having immunity would translate to much lower rates elsewhere.
But the overall infection mortality rate coming in at well under 1% is encouraging, I think, and isn't that far from a recent estimate published in the Lancet.
While we are comparing death rates in different nations, I note that Sweden where down to 20 dead yesterday, form a peak of 74 at the start of the week, with the number entering ICU also down.
Is the badly named 'Herd Immunity' strategy relay looking so bad now?
Let it spread amounts the strong and young, to protect the weak old and venerable.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Its almost as if the facts need to be altered to fit the conclusion...
980 is horrible again. A lot depends on which days that they are allocated to, I suppose.
We have a long road ahead for sure
Sending you and your good lady my best wishes and hope the better weather aids her recovery
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
So thats 953 hospital deaths reported in UK today - Europes highest I believe
1,417 died in France reported yesterday and they have not yet reported today.
Per head the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing higher increases in death rates than the UK
That includes care homes so you can’t use that comparison. The UK total today is the worst in Europe . Somethings gone badly wrong in the UK .
Until we also have the UK care home figures France can still be said to have the highest rise in the death rate in Europe.
On a per head basis as I also pointed out the Netherlands and Belgium are also seeing their death rate increase faster than the UK.
The UK also locked down about a week or 2 after most of Europe so inevitably it will take longer for the UK to pass the peak too (albeit Sweden is still not in lockdown).
Other than that the UK is about at the European average, though it could expand testing much further as Germany has if it really wants to cut the rate further than average
You can't use the care home death figures, that is merely an estimate since the start of the outbreak. There will be more care home deaths in every country. They are simply not counting them.
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
I suspect there's a major worldview difference here.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Among others, less so.
If I was in New York, suspected I had Covid-19 and could get on a plane to a place with an effectively free health service...
It's not the New Yorkers that could afford to up stakes and fly to London for COVID treatment that would need to.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Unusual state of affairs. The hopes of many a controversialist opinion-monger in the UK are resting right now on the shoulders of one Scandinavian nation.
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Personally, I would leave them stranded, but I don't think that would go down very well.
It should be made clear that anyone leaving the country now does so at their own risk.
The soft touch on Heathrow in particular has an invidious effect on behaviour during the lockdown. Many people will look at the planes arriving from JFK etc and think sod it why should I bother.
It was much harder to get my oldies to understand how serious things were with the government doing nothing about flights from Italy, Spain and China.
I suspect there's a major worldview difference here.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Among others, less so.
Not so sure there. Facebook recently reminded me that last April I hopped on a cheap flight to Romania and spent a long weekend in Transylvania. I'd hoped to be spending my retirement doing something similar.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
We desperately need to make basic masks available to all and make wearing them in public compulsory for the duration of the crisis. It would keep transmission low even during a relaxation of other measures, and allow some semblance of normal life to return.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
I wish I could understand people who think the NHS can be paid for by a nation sat in permanent lockdown.
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
Yes, there could be a message, but the cost comes in the enforcement. New arrivals will still be subject to the same restrictions as everyone else in terms of going out anyway. And I come back to my earlier point, we are talking what, a few hundred people a day? As someone else put it here, a drop in the ocean.
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Personally, I would leave them stranded, but I don't think that would go down very well.
It should be made clear that anyone leaving the country now does so at their own risk.
It's remarkable such a statement wasn't made at the beginning of March.
Where does that number (20) come from? World-o-meter shows 106 for yesterday and 77 (so far) for today.
Unusual state of affairs. The hopes of many a controversialist opinion-monger in the UK are resting right now on the shoulders of one Scandinavian nation.
They're already reeling from their massive air shot over EU not imploding in acrimony yesterday. Let's hope they don't do themselves a mischief.
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Enforced lockdown of vulnerable groups.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
For example I'm not expecting any spectators at sporting events in 2020 nor am I expecting any gigs to take place in 2020.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
I wish I could understand people who think the NHS can be paid for by a nation sat in permanent lockdown.
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
What I'm asking is why you think the passing of a peak has any relevance whatsoever to anything to do with loosening restrictions.
“ At the end of last week, the Prime Minister was beginning to wonder if the country was taking his advice too much to heart. He asked us to stay at home - and we have. At each daily press conference, medical and scientific advisers talk about the plunge in use of transport and how well rules are being observed. What they don’t say is that this was not quite in their original plan. Government modellers didn’t expect such obedience: the expected workers to carry on and at least a million pupils to be left in school by parents.”
How come they are surprised that people would prefer not to get a dangerous virus? What did they think would happen? It also shows how little they understand parents, who will do anything to keep their offspring safe (so leaving them with family rather than a bunch of random others, whose parents may well be working in an environment that exposes them to infection).
I suspect the behavioural scientists are looked at with much greater suspicion now, at least.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
I wish I could understand people who think the NHS can be paid for by a nation sat in permanent lockdown.
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
Education is also not just an economic thing but a great leveler in opportunity for children . Also its an escape from a spectrum of abuses at home for a significant some. There definitely needs to be a balance in this and we need to get out of this lockdown very soon .If Sweden can cope so can we. Lockdown like this is not worth it
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
Less than 1% of Austria infected with Covid, which would indicate that Herd Immunity is miles away from being feasible.
Quite different from the German test, but not that it used the standard test, to see who had it not the antibody test to see how many people have had it and recovered.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
I wish I could understand people who think the NHS can be paid for by a nation sat in permanent lockdown.
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
What I'm asking is why you think the passing of a peak has any relevance whatsoever to anything to do with loosening restrictions.
If you were discussing in good faith I really struggle to see how you could not see the answer to that.
It is 100% clear that the current lockdown can not continue forever. If you believe we're going to continue as per this and not seek to make any relaxation whatsoever until a mythical vaccine is found and several billion doses are produced, then you have a much more relaxed attitude than me about the capacity of the world to fulfill people's needs with so few people actually working.
Re-opening schools does not equal a total return to normal, and need not increase the average transmission rate above 1, but would have a massive impact on the productivity of parents and so leave us much better placed to fight that out for the long term.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
Why? - the UK has traditionally done a fair bit in international co-operative aid. Not to mention the foreign aid budget.
Realistically until we have a real time test, there isn't that much we can do in regards to international travel. And if we didn't allow any flights in, what about all those British citizens stranded abroad, the media would be screaming blue murder about poor gap yaaaaaaa students stuck in Timbuktu.
Haven't people had enough time to get back home by now. The least we could do is actually state a repatriation/freight only rule.
In all seriousness, there have been some stories of people who are in countries were the lockdowns haven't allowed them to even leave their hotel or hostel, let alone get to an airport to be repatriated.
I flew home from Cyprus on 16 March. On my scheduled flight, as it happens, but they had just closed Cyprus to tourists, closed restaurants and bars, and given hotels 6 days notice to close. It was pretty obvious you should do something about coming home in the next few days. I'm on the High Commission Facebook feed... and there's still bloody people out there. Twats.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
And getting a "we're following the science" answer - so Singapore and all the others who are have got it wrong?
I think it is a far east culture thing
No, I think its "following the flu pandemic" plan and they haven't updated it for a much more infectious and lethal pandemic.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
I have no problem quarantining new arrivals for 14 days and an surprised it is not happening but on the subject of masks I have only seen a handful worn in our area since this crisis began, including in hospital, A & E, and our surgery
I cannot see much in the way of flying happening this year. Can the airlines survive?
Hopefully will be safe to go to the Isle of Wight in June though.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
This sort of signage loses peoples goodwill . People on the whole will comply with laws and direction if they think the maker is doing so reluctantly and against their instinct (Its why Boris Johnson can get away with it and still be popular).Unfortunately too many people in police and local government are control freaks - Sunbathing in itself is not dangerous for spreading this . Its the distance between people. Councils should stop being so mard arses
What worries me is not people staying put in the same space away from others for long periods, but the sanctioned trips to the supermarket for so-called "essentials" where you find many moving around without any regard for maintaining social distancing in stores where far too many are still being allowed in at any one time.
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Enforced lockdown of vulnerable groups.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
Removing vulnerable groups would just take them out of the equation. There has to be something else to stop the second wave in the remainder of the population - to render it only "minor". It seems to be social distancing, from what you say. But if social distancing could render an outbreak minor, we wouldn't have needed a lockdown in the first place!
OKC, out of beer , and too early for anything else. Whisky is not for drinking in the sun.
How's Mrs G?
TSE , She is not too bad but not great, obviously cannot get to see Doctor's at present , her lungs still not great and the heart flutter caused by illness treatment delayed. Doing not too bad but the steroids and other treatments have lots of side affects , but all in all gievn the situation I think she is doing well though she might not agree. Looks like it will be a long slog to get back to being healthy, doctors did say a year was likely. Thank you for asking.
Thanks, make sure you look after yourself as well, I know how much of a toll it can be looking after a loved one.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
After all, when the Kursk went down, the Royal Navy worked 24/7 to get our rescue sub up there to try and save the crew. So that's what we would do for Russia under Putin....
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
And getting a "we're following the science" answer - so Singapore and all the others who are have got it wrong?
I think it is a far east culture thing
No, I think its "following the flu pandemic" plan and they haven't updated it for a much more infectious and lethal pandemic.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
I have no problem quarantining new arrivals for 14 days and an surprised it is not happening but on the subject of masks I have only seen a handful worn in our area since this crisis began, including in hospital, A & E, and our surgery
I cannot see much in the way of flying happening this year. Can the airlines survive?
Hopefully will be safe to go to the Isle of Wight in June though.
I agree and some airlines will collapse.
Airbus is cutting back on it's A320 planes with obvious job loses in France, Germany and UK
Both airlines and cruise ships are facing a longish period of decline IMHO
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Enforced lockdown of vulnerable groups.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
Removing vulnerable groups would just take them out of the equation. There has to be something else to stop the second wave in the remainder of the population - to render it only "minor". It seems to be social distancing, from what you say. But if social distancing could render an outbreak minor, we wouldn't have needed a lockdown in the first place!
As my father's friend who is fairly senior in the front line of the NHS, 'there are no good outcomes, only bad ones, we can only hope we choose the least bad one.'
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
Can't believe the answer. Why are they not at least being qustioned, and followed up?
Because as the good Professor said, the virus is all over the place in UK anyway.
Granted that the stable door has been wide open for ages, but IF we are getting the situation under control, suely we should be checking on why new cases arise, if we can.
I'd suggest we aren't in that phase now. I still haven't seen stats on the number of incoming passengers each day. I suspect the number is negligible when you discount urgent/necessary travel.
What's the harm in quarantining all arrivals?
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
Yes, there could be a message, but the cost comes in the enforcement. New arrivals will still be subject to the same restrictions as everyone else in terms of going out anyway. And I come back to my earlier point, we are talking what, a few hundred people a day? As someone else put it here, a drop in the ocean.
Or just close the border completely. No one in or out without appointment.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Given that he seems to despise Trump - openly mocked him in concert with other world leaders at a recent conference, why do you think that?
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
The warning sign for me is the number of private schools still charging and wanting fees paid for the summer term, and not even offering refunds.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
They chose that path - tough luck.
Lots of Uni staff on defined benefit pensions - no way the govt should be bailing that out.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
They chose that path - tough luck.
Lots of Uni staff on defined benefit pensions - no way the govt should be bailing that out.
What percentage of uni staff are on DB schemes? What's the cost?
PS - It was a path encouraged by successive governments, I believe our current PM when Foreign Secretary praised and encouraged unis for making the UK global for attracting so many foreign students.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Maybe a wee bit of political bias in that statement
So numbers of patients in hospital are now falling. Deaths likely to go up for a few more days given the heavily lagged reporting, but pretty soon lower ICU occupancy will feed through.
I will stress again, do not read too much into one day's worth of data.
I'm not. It's a trend.
I don't blame anyone at the press conference from playing a very straight bat to stop idiots going out on the piss this weekend, but the evidence is now very clear that cases peaked weeks ago and hospital numbers are now following. If you look at the detailed stats on what days reported deaths actually occured, as opposed to when they were reported, the same pattern is there.
I'm looking at the week on week increase being 34%.
Yes, that has been written on the slide to match up with the pre-agreed message that this is VERY SERIOUS, and it is TOO SOON TO SLACKEN OFF. It's a metric designed to try and stop people who shouldn't making their own decision on the end of lockdown.
I am sat at home and will remain so until they say I shouldn't, but I'm not going to pretend I can't see that diagnosis peaked 3 weeks ago, hospital usage has been largely flat for several days now and is beginning to fall in line with the expected lag, and death stats on an actual day as opposed to reported day basis are also showing significant flattening.
Why would anyone imagine that passing the peak of infections, or deaths, or hospital admissions, or anything would make it safe to raise the lockdown?
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
I wish I could understand people who think the NHS can be paid for by a nation sat in permanent lockdown.
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
What I'm asking is why you think the passing of a peak has any relevance whatsoever to anything to do with loosening restrictions.
If you were discussing in good faith I really struggle to see how you could not see the answer to that.
It is 100% clear that the current lockdown can not continue forever. If you believe we're going to continue as per this and not seek to make any relaxation whatsoever until a mythical vaccine is found and several billion doses are produced, then you have a much more relaxed attitude than me about the capacity of the world to fulfill people's needs with so few people actually working.
Re-opening schools does not equal a total return to normal, and need not increase the average transmission rate above 1, but would have a massive impact on the productivity of parents and so leave us much better placed to fight that out for the long term.
I'm asking why the peak is relevant. You didn't even mention the peak in your latest.
Please just think about it. The point is that whatever level of active cases we are at when the lockdown is lifted, or loosened, or whatever, from that point the virus will again begin to spread exponentially at whatever rate is determned by the new conditions.
PAST HISTORY IS IRRELEVANT, EXCEPT INASMUCH AS IT DETERMINES THE NUMBER OF ACTIVE CASES AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH IMMUNITY. In particular, the fact that there has been a peak is irrelevant.
What you need to look at is the number of people with immunity and the number of active cases. That's the basis on which a decision will have to be made. Nothing to do with whether some kind of peak has been passed.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
The warning sign for me is the number of private schools still charging and wanting fees paid for the summer term, and not even offering refunds.
So far I have given (unasked) 10% fee cut - at two leading schools in London. Both are implementing distance learning for the next term - unless the lockdown ends.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
Girlfriend's cousin (studying at Redbrick) just flew back to China. One of the last of her classmates to do so. She kept getting bumped off flights, before her parents paid big $$$ to fixer back home to get a guaranteed slot. Who know's if she'll return after this - parents are terrified of the situation over here.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
They chose that path - tough luck.
Lots of Uni staff on defined benefit pensions - no way the govt should be bailing that out.
It's not all the unis fault though, the government has for over 20 years now heavily encouraged the UK universities to take so many Chinese students.
Indeed the rules made sense in the past. They belong to the past, which is what I said originally but for some reason Luckyguy1983 objected to that.
The Ten Commandments still stand up pretty well in the modern world, can’t imagine many people disagree with any of them.
*Raised Hand*
I do. I dislike the 10 Commandments.
People tend to interpret the 10 Commandments in a way that suits them. Or associate it with just the later ones which should be bloody obvious and part of any other moral code too.
I disagree with the First, Second, Third, Fourth and Tenth Commandments. That's half of them.
I consider the Fifth to Ninth to be basic common decency.
They are only 'common decency' because of the 10 Commandments.
A rip-off from the 42 Negative Confessions in ancient Egypt! Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
But, rationally, lying down sunbathing (alone or with members of your own household) is far less likely to spread the virus than running around. If you want to be really careful exercise at home where you won't be breathing heavily in anyone else's airspace, then go to the park for fresh air and to see some greenery - which has proven health benefits.
You can't do any useful cardiovascular exercise at home, unless you're lucky enough to have found yourself at the start of this outbreak in possession of at least one piece of bulky, expensive stationary kit (e.g. a treadmill or exercise bike) on which to do it, which means in turn that you must also have the large amount of space to house such a piece of clutter.
For a large slice of the population, these are luxuries that are beyond our means. We can't even jog round and round in circles in our gardens until we get dizzy, because we don't have those either. Nor am I convinced that passing someone at speed is likely to be any more hazardous to either you or them than sitting still in the same place for a couple of hours, once the persons in question are sufficiently densely packed, as is the risk if a park becomes sufficiently crowded.
Of course, whatever risks there are to outdoor exercise can be mitigated by other means, such as pacing the streets instead of going to the park in the first place, or going out early or late - although I don't think that makes much difference outside of some very densely populated city areas in any event. I pass very few other people when I'm out running, regardless of what time of day it is.
Have to say that this is complete BS. I do 30-40 minutes in my lounge every day. Press Ups Sit Ups Burpees Leg Kicks Sprint on the spot Lifting small weights Step on chair etc etc
Its easy to find exercises online and you could literally spend as long as you want without repetition and getting bored. Fittest i've been in decades (except when i hurt my calf going full on!)
Hmmmmm... I'm sure that jumping up and down on the spot for an hour every day won't drive me mad (or, for that matter, my poor downstairs neighbours having the rhythmic thumping echoing through their ceiling.) And it's still no substitute for stretching your limbs properly. Or not being effectively imprisoned.
People really do need to get out, especially those of us not fortunate enough both to still have jobs and to have to go out and do them, because they cannot be done from home. Without outdoor exercise, children would be totally incarcerated and home workers would also be locked away completely, except for one or two trips to and from the supermarket each week (which is a pretty grim experience itself nowadays.)
I know the consequences of being sealed in a small home for months from living with a member of the shielded group and being friends with another. It's very destructive, demoralising and very hard to stick to. If we aren't very careful then the long term consequences of the measures being taken to squash this disease will end up being worse than those of the disease itself.
Yes, totally. But joggers in my experience in Cardiff seem disproportionately brain dead about social distancing, especially as they are breathing hard.
Just be spatially aware and bear in mind that keeping a very very wide berth as a jogger is way more important in the present circumstances than the bloody jogging itself.
Where does Toby Young's free speech union stand on this?
He's free to say it and the union is free to sack him for it.
Funny, Tobes seem to think him being pushed out of his education post 'cos of him exercising free speech as persecution rather than a demonstration of freedom.
FWIW I thought Young was treated harshly, but that's life. I'd note that Young was sacked for talking about ideas, whilst the union boss has gone for talking about a person.
There's a famous quote about that...
'Ideas' is an interesting way to describe tweeting about Helen Mirren's, Claudia Winkelman's and Danny Boyle's wife's (among others) tits. I'd assume you'd accept that they're people nevertheless.
Still, Tobes had his supporters as well as his knockers.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at a top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
They chose that path - tough luck.
Lots of Uni staff on defined benefit pensions - no way the govt should be bailing that out.
What percentage of uni staff are on DB schemes? What's the cost?
PS - It was a path encouraged by successive governments, I believe our current PM when Foreign Secretary praised and encouraged unis for making the UK global for attracting so many foreign students.
The DB scheme is part of the USS, which is semi-separate from the universities. It operates a last man standing scheme.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Given that he seems to despise Trump - openly mocked him in concert with other world leaders at a recent conference, why do you think that?
Johnson has a tendency to say whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear.
I have no doubt that Johnson feels closer to the US than to Europe (he was after all a US citizen until he decided he didn't want to pay taxes there), and regards the UK's relationship with the US as much more important than the relationship with Germany.
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Enforced lockdown of vulnerable groups.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
Removing vulnerable groups would just take them out of the equation. There has to be something else to stop the second wave in the remainder of the population - to render it only "minor". It seems to be social distancing, from what you say. But if social distancing could render an outbreak minor, we wouldn't have needed a lockdown in the first place!
As my father's friend who is fairly senior in the front line of the NHS, 'there are no good outcomes, only bad ones, we can only hope we choose the least bad one.'
That's all very well, but why on earth do you think social distancing alone can keep the second wave "minor"???
It sounds as though what you are really envisaging is the original herd immunity strategy shifted a few months later, with better planning of the isolation of people with certain medical conditions and - perhaps - the over 70s. Frankly, I think it's pretty much as lunatic an idea as it ever was.
The Supermarkets failure to adapt their Just In Time stock keeping in the face of increased home delivery has pushed us past breaking point with them
Put in and order for delivery 3 weeks in advance and they still fail to have items we ordered.
Not having stock on day of delivery was annoying but okay in the old world but now when I've given you 20 days notice to fulfill an order it is ridiculous.
It has pushed us towards ordering with wholesalers and smaller retailers who do radical things like "only list the stock they have" and setup recurring orders and such like.
Good one on economic caused deaths vs COVID19 deaths - actual getting a semi useful answer as a result of asking specifics.
You see? It's a long game.
They could have asked that question 2 weeks ago.
Not really. They had to take their audience, and the politicians with them. People are now at a stage whereby they understand this.
Oh well of course everyone on PB knew this ages ago, @Chris I believe wrote some of the seminal texts on it, albeit he had to dumb it down for you and others on here. But that's not really try point.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Maybe a wee bit of political bias in that statement
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
And getting a "we're following the science" answer - so Singapore and all the others who are have got it wrong?
I think it is a far east culture thing
No, I think its "following the flu pandemic" plan and they haven't updated it for a much more infectious and lethal pandemic.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
I have no problem quarantining new arrivals for 14 days and an surprised it is not happening but on the subject of masks I have only seen a handful worn in our area since this crisis began, including in hospital, A & E, and our surgery
I cannot see much in the way of flying happening this year. Can the airlines survive?
Hopefully will be safe to go to the Isle of Wight in June though.
I agree and some airlines will collapse.
Airbus is cutting back on it's A320 planes with obvious job loses in France, Germany and UK
Both airlines and cruise ships are facing a longish period of decline IMHO
Airlines will lose out on international tourist travel for maybe 12 months, but once borders start reopening, people will want to visit their overseas family/extended family and go on buisness trips again.
The cruise ship business is much more heavily tied to one type of customer, and they will have it very hard in the next 12 months.
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
The warning sign for me is the number of private schools still charging and wanting fees paid for the summer term, and not even offering refunds.
We've offered parents a pretty good discount, so hopefully that will help. I expect that asking them to pay full fees next term, to pay for any return to school will be met with opposition, though, as many will have had their own finances affected at this time. Considering that rehiring, unfurloughing, electric/gas etc., would bump costs up again, they'd probably start to withdraw in greater numbers, leaving the school even shorter.
Further to that, via the TES, here's what RLB just asked about the situation -
"In a letter to education secretary Gavin Williamson published this afternoon, she writes: "It is reported that many private educational settings are likely to face an impending financial crisis as a result of the pandemic and the loss of international students in particular.
"What steps is your Department taking to support such settings, particularly, integrating them into the state sector?""
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
The warning sign for me is the number of private schools still charging and wanting fees paid for the summer term, and not even offering refunds.
So far I have given (unasked) 10% fee cut - at two leading schools in London. Both are implementing distance learning for the next term - unless the lockdown ends.
Most are offering substantial cuts. Eton has cut its fees by 30% and 15-20% is typical.
Finally! LBC ask why we're not checking or quarantining arrivals in the UK.
And getting a "we're following the science" answer - so Singapore and all the others who are have got it wrong?
I think it is a far east culture thing
No, I think its "following the flu pandemic" plan and they haven't updated it for a much more infectious and lethal pandemic.
What's the harm in at least quarantining all arrivals? Its already being done in the British Isles (Guernsey).
I have no problem quarantining new arrivals for 14 days and an surprised it is not happening but on the subject of masks I have only seen a handful worn in our area since this crisis began, including in hospital, A & E, and our surgery
I cannot see much in the way of flying happening this year. Can the airlines survive?
Hopefully will be safe to go to the Isle of Wight in June though.
I agree and some airlines will collapse.
Airbus is cutting back on it's A320 planes with obvious job loses in France, Germany and UK
Both airlines and cruise ships are facing a longish period of decline IMHO
Airlines will lose out on international tourist travel for maybe 12 months, but once borders start reopening, people will want to visit their overseas family/extended family and go on buisness trips again.
The cruise ship business is much more heavily tied to one type of customer, and they will have it very hard in the next 12 months.
After 9/11 it took almost 3 years for passenger numbers to recover.
It's a small number, but did anyone notice the 60 ventilators Germany gave to the UK yesterday? I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
I have no doubt if we had an excess of ventilators and Germany needed them they would get them
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
If the UK was 100% sure that they had more than enough ventilators (which Germany cannot be sure of at this point), still not convinced Germany would get any. Johnson probably more likely to send them to Trump.
Given that he seems to despise Trump - openly mocked him in concert with other world leaders at a recent conference, why do you think that?
Johnson has a tendency to say whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear.
I have no doubt that Johnson feels closer to the US than to Europe (he was after all a US citizen until he decided he didn't want to pay taxes there), and regards the UK's relationship with the US as much more important than the relationship with Germany.
Well, it is worth pointing out that when Cameron was Prime Minister, Johnson was one of those Conservatives being criticised by the Opposition (along with Cameron) for being openly in favour of Obama's re-election. Not really very Trumpian.
The Johnson=Trump thing is a comfort blanket for some. It doesn't seem to be related to any actual facts.
Mr. Eagles, that's a plausible timeline, though it's hard to say if/how a second wave will happen.
I'm expecting two further waves this year, one a minor one when the lockdown is eased and people ignore social distancing, and a second one in the normal flu season.
What are the mechanics of your second, minor wave? What is going to stop it?
Enforced lockdown of vulnerable groups.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
Removing vulnerable groups would just take them out of the equation. There has to be something else to stop the second wave in the remainder of the population - to render it only "minor". It seems to be social distancing, from what you say. But if social distancing could render an outbreak minor, we wouldn't have needed a lockdown in the first place!
As my father's friend who is fairly senior in the front line of the NHS, 'there are no good outcomes, only bad ones, we can only hope we choose the least bad one.'
That's all very well, but why on earth do you think social distancing alone can keep the second wave "minor"???
It sounds as though what you are really envisaging is the original herd immunity strategy shifted a few months later, with better planning of the isolation of people with certain medical conditions and - perhaps - the over 70s. Frankly, I think it's pretty much as lunatic an idea as it ever was.
Even if the government said that every restriction was lifted, I think some behavioural changes would persist. Perhaps that would help reduce somewhat a second wave?
Looking at the data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, we may be at the peak. The whole idea of the policy was to spread the peak out so that the NHS could cope, and perhaps that is just what we see. These are the the number of daily new cases for the last 3 weeks:
One of my predictions for this year is that we and many other countries will ban flights from the USA.
And I presume the Chinese won't be that keen to come to the West and test their luck at the plague lottery.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
A friend works at top university, says their Chinese student numbers over the next few years are going to crater, hardly expecting next academic year.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
This is a major issue and expect a number of higher education establishments to close by Christmas. The same goes for independent schools (an area that I am, obviously, invested in). With the lack of overseas students and their money and parents unable to pay fees the suggestion is that, apart from a few here and there, the whole private school industry outside the South East will collapse. The Chinese are, apparently, ready to pounce on any decent schools close to London that are in trouble, outside that area, not so much,
The warning sign for me is the number of private schools still charging and wanting fees paid for the summer term, and not even offering refunds.
So far I have given (unasked) 10% fee cut - at two leading schools in London. Both are implementing distance learning for the next term - unless the lockdown ends.
Most are offering substantial cuts. Eton has cut its fees by 30% and 15-20% is typical.
The schools in question don't have particularly high overseas numbers. Wouldn't be surprised to see a big percentage of overseas students at Eton.
Comments
Good one on economic caused deaths vs COVID19 deaths - actual getting a semi useful answer as a result of asking specifics.
All but 11 countries have now closed their borders, cancelled international flights and/or introduced compulsory quarantine measures for foreign arrivals
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/advice/coronavirus-countries-on-lockdown-to-british-tourists/
The scientists and government are asleep at the wheel.
For politicians, Sir Humphreys and journalists unrestricted world travel is viewed as a fundamental necessity.
Among others, less so.
Still, Tobes had his supporters as well as his knockers.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/948469085557411841?s=20
But the overall infection mortality rate coming in at well under 1% is encouraging, I think, and isn't that far from a recent estimate published in the Lancet.
All the best Malc
There has been a peak only because of the lockdown. If the lockdown was lifted we would go back to exponential growth, regardless of any past history.
I really wish I could understand the thinking.
You can't use the care home death figures, that is merely an estimate since the start of the outbreak. There will be more care home deaths in every country. They are simply not counting them.
We're well out of line with most other countries:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/04/02/april-update-coronavirus-travel-update-90-of-countries-have-travel-restrictions/#3e30ebad3024
The answer of course is a balanced middle way. School closures, per the SAGE modelling release, make very little difference to the viral spread, but are enormously damaging to the ability of the country to pay for the NHS over a sustained period.
Less than 1% of Austria infected with Covid, which would indicate that Herd Immunity is miles away from being feasible.
The tourist industry is in for a really rough time.
Rest of the country works as normal, supporting the vulnerable groups, but plenty of social distancing.
For example I'm not expecting any spectators at sporting events in 2020 nor am I expecting any gigs to take place in 2020.
I fully expect by the autumn the government will have nationalised the home delivery system.
I suspect the behavioural scientists are looked at with much greater suspicion now, at least.
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to imagine, if things were the other way round, that the UK would be donating any ventilators to Germany.
They charge them 3 times what they charge UK students, which means a lot of universities are going to need a bailout.
It is 100% clear that the current lockdown can not continue forever. If you believe we're going to continue as per this and not seek to make any relaxation whatsoever until a mythical vaccine is found and several billion doses are produced, then you have a much more relaxed attitude than me about the capacity of the world to fulfill people's needs with so few people actually working.
Re-opening schools does not equal a total return to normal, and need not increase the average transmission rate above 1, but would have a massive impact on the productivity of parents and so leave us much better placed to fight that out for the long term.
Hopefully will be safe to go to the Isle of Wight in June though.
While we have left the EU there is no reason why we cannot have a good relationship with all EU states.
We do not want some idiotic cold war nonsense
Airbus is cutting back on it's A320 planes with obvious job loses in France, Germany and UK
Both airlines and cruise ships are facing a longish period of decline IMHO
Lots of Uni staff on defined benefit pensions - no way the govt should be bailing that out.
PS - It was a path encouraged by successive governments, I believe our current PM when Foreign Secretary praised and encouraged unis for making the UK global for attracting so many foreign students.
Please just think about it. The point is that whatever level of active cases we are at when the lockdown is lifted, or loosened, or whatever, from that point the virus will again begin to spread exponentially at whatever rate is determned by the new conditions.
PAST HISTORY IS IRRELEVANT, EXCEPT INASMUCH AS IT DETERMINES THE NUMBER OF ACTIVE CASES AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH IMMUNITY. In particular, the fact that there has been a peak is irrelevant.
What you need to look at is the number of people with immunity and the number of active cases. That's the basis on which a decision will have to be made. Nothing to do with whether some kind of peak has been passed.
Remember, Moses was brought up in the Egyptian court...
https://houseoftruth.education/en/library/sacred-writings/egyptian-book-of-the-dead-42-negative-confessions
Just be spatially aware and bear in mind that keeping a very very wide berth as a jogger is way more important in the present circumstances than the bloody jogging itself.
Ditto cyclists.
I have no doubt that Johnson feels closer to the US than to Europe (he was after all a US citizen until he decided he didn't want to pay taxes there), and regards the UK's relationship with the US as much more important than the relationship with Germany.
It sounds as though what you are really envisaging is the original herd immunity strategy shifted a few months later, with better planning of the isolation of people with certain medical conditions and - perhaps - the over 70s. Frankly, I think it's pretty much as lunatic an idea as it ever was.
Put in and order for delivery 3 weeks in advance and they still fail to have items we ordered.
Not having stock on day of delivery was annoying but okay in the old world but now when I've given you 20 days notice to fulfill an order it is ridiculous.
It has pushed us towards ordering with wholesalers and smaller retailers who do radical things like "only list the stock they have" and setup recurring orders and such like.
Oh well of course everyone on PB knew this ages ago, @Chris I believe wrote some of the seminal texts on it, albeit he had to dumb it down for you and others on here. But that's not really try point.
The cruise ship business is much more heavily tied to one type of customer, and they will have it very hard in the next 12 months.
Further to that, via the TES, here's what RLB just asked about the situation -
"In a letter to education secretary Gavin Williamson published this afternoon, she writes: "It is reported that many private educational settings are likely to face an impending financial crisis as a result of the pandemic and the loss of international students in particular.
"What steps is your Department taking to support such settings, particularly, integrating them into the state sector?""
That's going to go down well......
The Johnson=Trump thing is a comfort blanket for some. It doesn't seem to be related to any actual facts.
These are the the number of daily new cases for the last 3 weeks: