Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Why would you shut down footie when the tube is open ?
Perhaps because they are playing a team that has brought over thousands of fans from Madrid.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
And Liverpool / Manchester area is already looking like a bit of a UK hotspot.
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
Have you ever been to a rock gig....if you go for it in the mosh pit / circle pit you are going to get bashed around a huge number of people as you circle around.
Also, all those queues getting in, the bar, the toilets, etc.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Why would you shut down footie when the tube is open ?
They are playing a team from a city that has over 1200 active cases, I do believe away supporters are in the crowd. Madrid is close to total lockdown but it’s ok to play a game of football with x thousand of away supporters not just in the stadium but in the bars, airport, hotels etc throughout the city.
FCO isn't barring travel from Spain. If they think that's a good idea they should do that not f**k around with high profile events like the football while ignoring everything else.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
You are beyond parody, it’s a stupid unnecessary risk. It’s not about being in the stadium it’s about the bars restaurants and hotels ,the airport tomorrow. Your only concern seems to be that you may have to sort out child care facilities if they close schools and Liverpool may be robbed of their EPL title. Given that it is illegal for Atletico to play in front of a crowd in Spain it’s ridiculous that they can play in front of one in the UK
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Indeed. But if the FCO or COBR want to exclude tourists from Spain they should do that. A few football fans is just a tiny fraction of the tourists coming over so why do just that? Its a half-arsed, half-hearted, half-thought-through suggestion.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Why would you shut down footie when the tube is open ?
They are playing a team from a city that has over 1200 active cases, I do believe away supporters are in the crowd. Madrid is close to total lockdown but it’s ok to play a game of football with x thousand of away supporters not just in the stadium but in the bars, airport, hotels etc throughout the city.
FCO isn't barring travel from Spain. If they think that's a good idea they should do that not f**k around with high profile events like the football while ignoring everything else.
I suppose the other balancing point is that, given that Madrid is the Spanish capital, absent a wider travel ban does this number of away fans register on the “how many people from Madrid are in the U.K. at the minute” metric? Dunno.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
I assume the game theory types in Downing Street have factored in the day in which the newspapers scream and beg for lockdown?
The key thing to consider is how many undiagnosed cases of Coronavirus are in the UK.
The outbreak has doubled in the UK in the last 4 days. If it continues at the same rate then we can expect around 5,000 total cases in 14 days time.
If that is the case then we can guess there are 500 diagnosed and 4,500 undiagnosed cases right now. Is this enough to make a lockdown worthwhile of a population of 60 million?
Based on the Italians struggling to cope with 12,000 cases its suggest we should lock down soon (maybe the next day or 2)
The problem the Italians have is that their cases are mostly in or near a few towns. Our spread should make it easier to deal with.
Back of a fag packet, the UK has about 4000 ICU and high dependency beds. They reckon about one in five hospitalised patients will need intensive care, meaning we can cope with 20000 inpatients. They reckon about one in seven carriers will need hospital hence 140000 carriers.
You get some spare capacity from re-using beds during the quarantine, but need to knock off something for contingency/margin of error, something for uneven regional distribution, and for people unavoidably in intensive care for other conditions. Say half, 70000.
Then allow for the proportion of unidentified carriers, say another half. Meaning the UK trigger point comes two to three weeks ahead of when we can expect 35000 identified carriers. If it is doubling twice a week then that suggests you’d be looking somewhere around 1500 confirmed cases range before you trigger the quarantine (maybe more, if you assume a slowing of infection rate a while after quarantine starts)
These numbers and assumptions may be WAY OFF, but the thought process is likely to replicate what, based on the expert opinions expressed on Newsnight, someone is working through.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Sorry but anyone who quotes Shankly's dictum that football is more important than life and death as a justification for playing a game bringing thousands from Madrid in the current circumstances richly deserves to be called an idiot.
I assume the game theory types in Downing Street have factored in the day in which the newspapers scream and beg for lockdown?
To be fair, that's quite astute psychology - much easier to implement and enforce draconian measures when the public are begging you for them than when they're still blasé resistant.
In case anyone is *still* catching up - lock downs etc. will slow the advance of the disease to something like zero. Which will the return when the measures are lifted . Which will then be required again... lather, rinse, repeat. Until enough of the population has been exposed (or a vaccine is created) to prevent it catching hold again.
That is what flattening the curve will look like in the medium term.
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
Because it doesn't matter how many people are in a venue. You won't pass a contagion from one end of the venue to the other, you need to be in close proximity to pass it on.
You are beyond parody, it’s a stupid unnecessary risk. It’s not about being in the stadium it’s about the bars restaurants and hotels ,the airport tomorrow. Your only concern seems to be that you may have to sort out child care facilities if they close schools and Liverpool may be robbed of their EPL title. Given that it is illegal for Atletico to play in front of a crowd in Spain it’s ridiculous that they can play in front of one in the UK
No I want to follow what the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer recommend.
This is a time for science and experts not every halfwit on Twitter thinking their views matter. I'm not a scientist, if the CMO and CSO say there's no reason to shut down stadias then don't do so. If the CMO and CSO say that closing schools is counterproductive then don't do so.
If the CMO and CSO say that closing down football or schools is a good idea then do it. This is a time for calm rational behaviour and following our chief scientists.
In Sydney, Australia’s most populous city and the centre of the Australian outbreak of Covid-19, the premier of New South Wales Gladys Berejiklian has just announced there are now 77 cases across that state, out of 128 in Australia.
Most of the cases are patients who have travelled overseas or who have had close contact with a confirmed case in Australia.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
Earlier, the UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the number of cases could keep rising for months. He has since said he expects the outbreak not to last a year.
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
Been a shift in rhetoric today, "nobody could have seen this coming etc". Presumably they intend to try take control, move towards emergency powers etc, make him some assertive rather than a victim of events.
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Why would you shut down footie when the tube is open ?
Because it's non-essential, and unless you're going into complete lockdown mode shutting the tube down would cause more crowding elsewhere. If you scale back the non-essential travel, the tube will become less crowded and less dangerous for people who really need to travel.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
Isn't the trouble sustaining it? If you do it too early people will get restless and/or run out of stockpiled bog roll.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
ukpaul.....long time no see...the last time you were posting here Man City were in the championship....
Earlier, the UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the number of cases could keep rising for months. He has since said he expects the outbreak not to last a year.
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
Na, once a good fraction get it there's not point restricting people.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Sorry but anyone who quotes Shankly's dictum that football is more important than life and death as a justification for playing a game bringing thousands from Madrid in the current circumstances richly deserves to be called an idiot.
Anyone who couldn't tell it was a joke deserves to be called an idiot.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
This is what you end up doing if you failed to do less disruptive things earlier, as per the UK's current "fail to do less disruptive things earlier" plan.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
How did she get a job at the Guardian with that CV? No private school, no Oxbridge, I thought that instantly meant your CV went in the bin.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
Been a shift in rhetoric today, "nobody could have seen this coming etc". Presumably they intend to try take control, move towards emergency powers etc, make him some assertive rather than a victim of events.
Problem for Trump is that all those old quotes will come back to haunt him...again and again....
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
Thank you. Somebody here thought her opinion worth sharing. They must have looked at the same thing that you did, read and considered what she wrote and thought - that opinion offers knowledge, nuance, moves people’s thoughts forward and brings expertise that I must share. Genuinely strange.
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
He only said that was what they were doing with Nadine. Because the alternative is sending half the Tory party into self isolation for two weeks.
Earlier, the UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the number of cases could keep rising for months. He has since said he expects the outbreak not to last a year.
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
Na, once a good fraction get it there's not point restricting people.
Matt Hancock is clearly ill looking at him, sweating like his Iranian counterpart.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
Isn't the trouble sustaining it? If you do it too early people will get restless and/or run out of stockpiled bog roll.
Again leadership, also education. Confront people with the consequences of acting later, make sure that they know what is likely to happen if they don’t comply. We aren’t China, not even Singapore but appeal to the Blitz spirit or something. They’ll thank you later.
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Earlier, the UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the number of cases could keep rising for months. He has since said he expects the outbreak not to last a year.
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
Na, once a good fraction get it there's not point restricting people.
Matt Hancock is clearly ill looking at him, sweating like his Iranian counterpart.
I'm guessing he hasn't had all that much sleep these days.
Earlier, the UK’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the number of cases could keep rising for months. He has since said he expects the outbreak not to last a year.
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
Na, once a good fraction get it there's not point restricting people.
Matt Hancock is clearly ill looking at him, sweating like his Iranian counterpart.
Dr Google diagnoses via the medium of Samsung OLED. Should save money, patients can just mail a selfie.
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
He only said that was what they were doing with Nadine. Because the alternative is sending half the Tory party into self isolation for two weeks.
That maybe, but it sends out the message to the wider public that is ok. The Italians did the same initially, i.e. your fine old man going out to the same bar you go everyday, as long as your mate Luigi doesn't come within 1m of you.
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Sorry but anyone who quotes Shankly's dictum that football is more important than life and death as a justification for playing a game bringing thousands from Madrid in the current circumstances richly deserves to be called an idiot.
Anyone who couldn't tell it was a joke deserves to be called an idiot.
That's what you say now, either way it's a flippant and irresponsible attitude to your football club bringing in thousands of people from Madrid through the airports, hotels, restaurants and transport systems of the region just to play a game for 90 minutes.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
How did she get a job at the Guardian with that CV? No private school, no Oxbridge, I thought that instantly meant your CV went in the bin.
She went to Leeds. The greatest university in the land.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
Last paragraph is fake news. From what I saw of last night's BBC Newsnight the mantle of world expert on epidemiology was tacitly bestowed upon Nigel Farage.
Up until now I have been confident with the government response. This evening, I am now starting to have major doubts.
Why aren't oldies being locked down. If we believe outside events are ok, why are we still hosting things like gigs. Sticking 1000 people in a confined hot sweaty space where they jump up and down with one another, sounds a terrible idea.
Also the weird claim from Hannock that 15 mins within 1m of somebody who is showing symptoms is when you are in danger, when all the academic literature published so people infectious before symptoms show and that you need to give people a much wider berth.
He only said that was what they were doing with Nadine. Because the alternative is sending half the Tory party into self isolation for two weeks.
That maybe, but it sends out the message to the wider public that is ok. The Italians did the same initially, i.e. your fine old man going out to the same bar you go everyday, as long as your mate Luigi doesn't come within 1m of you.
He looked a bit shifty saying it, as if he knew he was undermining the wider message. I reckon they’ll be tracing and testing people who had earlier contact with her (they are already doing her Thursday dinner companions) and just praying it hasn’t spread to anyone very critical.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
ukpaul.....long time no see...the last time you were posting here Man City were in the championship....
Hello tyson, it’s been years since I posted here (a bit less than ten?). Lurked on and off for a bit but this situation seems just too serious to not comment on.
Yes, City have come up in the world again. Having lived through the playoff against Gillingham to get us out of the third tier twenty years ago, it’s been a welcome change!
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer."
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
Last paragraph is fake news. From what I saw of last night's BBC Newsnight the mantle of world expert on epidemiology was tacitly bestowed upon Nigel Farage.
I have been out all day working like a dog, so no time to lurk.
By the number of posts on the last two threads, it would appear that most PB posters have been de-mobbed to work at home until the Coronavirus crisis subsides.
Italy announces all shops except pharmacies and food outlets will be CLOSED as coronavirus death toll climbs by 31% to 827 in 24 hours and intensive care units are advise to stop treating the elderly
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
ukpaul.....long time no see...the last time you were posting here Man City were in the championship....
Hello tyson, it’s been years since I posted here (a bit less than ten?). Lurked on and off for a bit but this situation seems just too serious to not comment on.
Yes, City have come up in the world again. Having lived through the playoff against Gillingham to get us out of the third tier twenty years ago, it’s been a welcome change!
I wondered where you disappeared to...one of pbCOM's more urbane and thoughtful posters, a bit left of centre, teacher and fellow City fan.....
Liverpool have just scored....this is possibly one of those seminal games of football...a bit like when Germany played England on Christmas Day during WW1 over the trenches....
I wonder how many extra fatalities will occur as a result of packing 60,000 in a stadium at this stage of the crisis
Worth it to have a home crowd at Anfield
Sport is like many other activities an optional event, it shouldn’t be taking place it is not essential to the functioning of the world. It sends the wrong message to people that everything is normal. More fool those who have gone to the match but I feel sorry for those who will be ‘collateral damage’.
Heretic. Sport in Anfield isn't a matter of life or death, its more important than that.
Liverpool has seen enough of the impact of poor decision making. This could prove to be another case but it really is only a game and irrelevant in the big picture.
Its not only a game, its the Champions League. And there's no scientific reason to shut down stadia without shutting down far more besides it.
Conveniently ignoring the fact it has unnecessarily brought thousands of fans from the virus hotspot of Madrid into the UK. Idiot
Yes I don’t disagree with that bit. We surely could have refused flights from Spain (or required a quarantine period that would make seeing the match impractical). We could have compensated them. Just no reason to exclude the whole crowd.
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
Sorry but anyone who quotes Shankly's dictum that football is more important than life and death as a justification for playing a game bringing thousands from Madrid in the current circumstances richly deserves to be called an idiot.
Anyone who couldn't tell it was a joke deserves to be called an idiot.
That's what you say now, either way it's a flippant and irresponsible attitude to your football club bringing in thousands of people from Madrid through the airports, hotels, restaurants and transport systems of the region just to play a game for 90 minutes.
No I don't just say so now, I said so at the time - I put a emoji in and used the word "Heretic" - does that sound like someone being serious?
Its neither flippant nor irresponsible when COBR and the FCO haven't advised against it. If there is a decision to shut that down it should be a decision made by the CMO or CSO because they think the science calls for it.
As Klopp said the other day he's a football manager and has nothing to say about coronavirus, leave it to the experts.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
We have a plan based on following the advice of the epidemiologists. I may not necessarily like that plan and may decide to take extra precautions myself but, just like you, I am not an expert on this. I assume the CMO is, or at least has a team of experts around him.
Interesting thread on the budget. This, like all other budgets, is ultimately a political statement. Rightly or wrongly the Conservative Party has abandoned all fiscal restraint, which is quite an astonishing thing to say.
They will find once it’s has been lost, credibility is hard to win back. By following the Trump path may have the 80 seat majority and think they are winning, but the whole point of Trumpism is to burn tomorrow’s to have today, promise big burn bright, and as it burns down it takes everything else with it.
but why argue tonight? we will know in short to medium terms if such a big splurge with money we haven’t got is proved a huge mistake, and in the longer term politically, if these stoked promises materialise into reality or just sense of deceit in an even more divided and broken Britain.
And another cabinet minister goes into self isolation
A cabinet minister is self-isolating while they await test results, a government source has confirmed, thought they would not confirm the identity of the minister.
I have been out all day working like a dog, so no time to lurk.
By the number of posts on the last two threads, it would appear that most PB posters have been de-mobbed to work at home until the Coronavirus crisis subsides.
Keep up the good work.
I now work for the Ministry of Justice and have spent a delightful day today ribbing my haughty colleagues that we are likely to be re-deployed to the prisons....
On a serious note though...if we stop prison social visits, who is going to bring in the drugs into the prisons?
” I'll be making some decisions. I've already made some decisions, actually, today, but I'll be making some other ones that are very important," he added.
Trump said the address would include economic and health announcements.
"We'll be talking about that later. All those things we're making a decision on," he added.
Speaking about the global impact of the virus and potential changes to US travel restrictions, Trump said: "We'll be starting some additional solutions."
"We made a great decision on China and Asia and they're healing ... we could start to think about getting back involved in that part of the world," Trump said, adding that Europe is in "very tough shape."
And we'll be making various decisions," he said. "You'll be hearing about them ... tonight."
I have been out all day working like a dog, so no time to lurk.
By the number of posts on the last two threads, it would appear that most PB posters have been de-mobbed to work at home until the Coronavirus crisis subsides.
Keep up the good work.
I now work for the Ministry of Justice and have spent a delightful day today ribbing my haughty colleagues that we are likely to be re-deployed to the prisons....
On a serious note though...if we stop prison social visits, who is going to bring in the drugs into the prisons?
If TV dramas have any basis on reality it will be the prison guards.
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
ukpaul.....long time no see...the last time you were posting here Man City were in the championship....
Hello tyson, it’s been years since I posted here (a bit less than ten?). Lurked on and off for a bit but this situation seems just too serious to not comment on.
Yes, City have come up in the world again. Having lived through the playoff against Gillingham to get us out of the third tier twenty years ago, it’s been a welcome change!
I wondered where you disappeared to...one of pbCOM's more urbane and thoughtful posters, a bit left of centre, teacher and fellow City fan.....
I'm glad to see you back
You’re too kind....
Yep, that’s me. Horrified by Corbyn, terrified of Trump (probably me and millions of others in that group). Creaking towards retirement now though, maybe next year or the year after. It was education matters that brought me back, in fact. I moved a while ago to somewhere with a considerable number of international students so I’m getting an interesting viewpoint. Chinese/Hong Kong students going from being relieved they are here, to thinking they’d be better off back home, for one.
We have a plan based on following the advice of the epidemiologists. I may not necessarily like that plan and may decide to take extra precautions myself but, just like you, I am not an expert on this. I assume the CMO is, or at least has a team of experts around him.
The people I've heard, like the CMO and others, all seem knowledgeable and straight talking. I don't think they will be pulling any punches when advising the Cabinet.
My hunch is that it really is all about picking the best possible time for a lockdown, when the make that call it will happen very quickly.
I recall seeing a chart a few days ago saying it can survive on plastic for (I think) five days.
There has been claims of up to 6-9 days on metal.
Obviously the biggest concern is it being still airborne for hours, if true it is effectively a chemical weapon. Although, the researchers are saying they don't know if this is actually how transmission occurs and tests with SARS produced similar results.
And another cabinet minister goes into self isolation
A cabinet minister is self-isolating while they await test results, a government source has confirmed, thought they would not confirm the identity of the minister.
Well if it isn't Raab, they really are dropping like flies....
And another cabinet minister goes into self isolation
A cabinet minister is self-isolating while they await test results, a government source has confirmed, thought they would not confirm the identity of the minister.
Well if it isn't Raab, they really are dropping like flies....
Now this is what you do (albeit a day late); instead we seem to have a plan based on not doing something until the population tells us it’s okay to do it. Leadership means annoying voters when needed.
We have a plan based on following the advice of the epidemiologists. I may not necessarily like that plan and may decide to take extra precautions myself but, just like you, I am not an expert on this. I assume the CMO is, or at least has a team of experts around him.
The government had a plan to deal with Hitler in the late 30s. The plan was basically: ignore him and hope he'd go away. Meanwhile Churchill demanded rearmament, from the sidelines. Churchill was right
Don’t talk ignorant shit. Britain rearmed like crazy from the mid30s onwards.
To be honest I am not fazed by that. Through my own ignorance I had already assumed it could last on surfaces for several days and had been acting accordingly.
Yeah right Polly you clearly know mch more than the CMO and the CSO - if only you hadn't been held back and forced to be a twitter troll because you're a woman.
Who is Polly Curtis and why is her opinion relevant or valuable?
blue tick.
? She has one? Is that important?
She went Camden High School for Girls. She has a degree in politics from Leeds, and an MA in Journalism from Goldsmiths.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
Thank you. Somebody here thought her opinion worth sharing. They must have looked at the same thing that you did, read and considered what she wrote and thought - that opinion offers knowledge, nuance, moves people’s thoughts forward and brings expertise that I must share. Genuinely strange.
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I’ll explain the word populist. Populism pushes the idea of popular sovereignty above the independence of democratic institutions, and the professionalism of the representatives of those institutions. populism doesn’t respect government, civil service to politicians. This is Trump. This is Boris. And Mussolini and Hitler. populist opportunism masquerading as values and agenda for government, a Moralist ideology believing it is the voice of all the people, deaf to anyone with a different view. They have hi jacked conservatism, and they are trashing it.
So, Codogno, the town of 15000 where the Italy outbreak originated, had its first day today of no new cases.
In the province, Lodi, we have had the 5th consecutive day of sub 10% increments, the 40% compound increase over those 5 days has taken the province's infection rate to around 0.45%.
This is why I cannot get my head around the idea of a 70% infection rate, it simply does not chime with what we are seeing, place-by-place, nor with how previous pandemics have scaled with time. So, if 70% is being bandied around, I'm really not seeing why? OK, 70% is possible and has been seen in flus and plagues, I get that, but this Coronavirus does not seem to be behaving like that kind of beastie, even if you allow that future pandemic waves will be bigger.
Equally, the cries of China must be lying, Iran must be lying are tiresome, bandied about with numbers that are so far out of whack with anything we have seen elsewhere as to be fantastical. OK, Iran could very well be underreporting, their public health response could be so continuingly poor that the numbers are multiples of what we are seeing in Europe. But the lurid made up stuff is just someone pulling a number out of the air like some Tiddler the Storytelling Pandemic Fish?
It is reasonable to ask why not 70%. I don't know. Could it be co-immunity from other strains - might explain kids' immunities, given they tend to be snot factories at the best of times, and in environments of large scale and rotating close mingling. Could it simply be the slower time to onward infection (5 days vs 1.5 for flu) meaning health measures can better keep apace with the somewhat gentler exponent. But it seems, from the evidence, that 70% really is not where we are heading on any sensible reading.
OK, it could be 70% over 10-20 years if this becomes nativised. But there will be a lot of tuning of health care responses, a lot of medical development, a lot of mutation of the virus in the meantime.
It's not just flu if you get it, the deadliness is greater, the chance of needing intensive care is greater - this ICU need appears to be the very crux of the challenge - but the spread - that is clearly less, and it can be used to peg back the whole public health challenge.onto, yes, a scale akin to a really bad flu season, if we do this well.
Comments
NB: Obviously I do disagree with you calling him an idiot. Grow up.
His profile is on LinkedIn.
He has no training in epidemiology, or biology or statistics.
Also, all those queues getting in, the bar, the toilets, etc.
We can find an expert on twitter who costs nothing and knows everything.
Back of a fag packet, the UK has about 4000 ICU and high dependency beds. They reckon about one in five hospitalised patients will need intensive care, meaning we can cope with 20000 inpatients. They reckon about one in seven carriers will need hospital hence 140000 carriers.
You get some spare capacity from re-using beds during the quarantine, but need to knock off something for contingency/margin of error, something for uneven regional distribution, and for people unavoidably in intensive care for other conditions. Say half, 70000.
Then allow for the proportion of unidentified carriers, say another half. Meaning the UK trigger point comes two to three weeks ahead of when we can expect 35000 identified carriers. If it is doubling twice a week then that suggests you’d be looking somewhere around 1500 confirmed cases range before you trigger the quarantine (maybe more, if you assume a slowing of infection rate a while after quarantine starts)
These numbers and assumptions may be WAY OFF, but the thought process is likely to replicate what, based on the expert opinions expressed on Newsnight, someone is working through.
That is what flattening the curve will look like in the medium term.
China is at the end of Round 1 in this....
This is a time for science and experts not every halfwit on Twitter thinking their views matter. I'm not a scientist, if the CMO and CSO say there's no reason to shut down stadias then don't do so. If the CMO and CSO say that closing schools is counterproductive then don't do so.
If the CMO and CSO say that closing down football or schools is a good idea then do it. This is a time for calm rational behaviour and following our chief scientists.
Most of the cases are patients who have travelled overseas or who have had close contact with a confirmed case in Australia.
Perhaps there is hope about summer....
Just think about that...we can write off normal life for most of the rest of the year in the best case scenario.
She writes for the Guardian. She worked for HuffPo. She leads the Tortoise Network, "a new form of inclusive membership for news"
And finally, she is world expert on epidemiology, like everyone else on Twitter.
No scientist would produce a graph like that with its ridiculous 40 per cent vertical line.
Anyone with a reasonable knowledge of statistics would produce a graph that models the uncertainties with confidence limits.
Peter Kolchinsky seems to be a tech entrepreneur, who a while back did a PhD in virology -- not epidemiology.
Good luck to them... and to us in our turn
Yes, City have come up in the world again. Having lived through the playoff against Gillingham to get us out of the third tier twenty years ago, it’s been a welcome change!
Coming to a lot more of Europe soon
By the number of posts on the last two threads, it would appear that most PB posters have been de-mobbed to work at home until the Coronavirus crisis subsides.
Keep up the good work.
https://covid19japan.com/#chart-legend-container
Italy announces all shops except pharmacies and food outlets will be CLOSED as coronavirus death toll climbs by 31% to 827 in 24 hours and intensive care units are advise to stop treating the elderly
I'm glad to see you back
Its neither flippant nor irresponsible when COBR and the FCO haven't advised against it. If there is a decision to shut that down it should be a decision made by the CMO or CSO because they think the science calls for it.
As Klopp said the other day he's a football manager and has nothing to say about coronavirus, leave it to the experts.
but why argue tonight? we will know in short to medium terms if such a big splurge with money we haven’t got is proved a huge mistake, and in the longer term politically, if these stoked promises materialise into reality or just sense of deceit in an even more divided and broken Britain.
A cabinet minister is self-isolating while they await test results, a government source has confirmed, thought they would not confirm the identity of the minister.
On a serious note though...if we stop prison social visits, who is going to bring in the drugs into the prisons?
” I'll be making some decisions. I've already made some decisions, actually, today, but I'll be making some other ones that are very important," he added.
Trump said the address would include economic and health announcements.
"We'll be talking about that later. All those things we're making a decision on," he added.
Speaking about the global impact of the virus and potential changes to US travel restrictions, Trump said: "We'll be starting some additional solutions."
"We made a great decision on China and Asia and they're healing ... we could start to think about getting back involved in that part of the world," Trump said, adding that Europe is in "very tough shape."
And we'll be making various decisions," he said. "You'll be hearing about them ... tonight."
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1237837464938500096
Yep, that’s me. Horrified by Corbyn, terrified of Trump (probably me and millions of others in that group). Creaking towards retirement now though, maybe next year or the year after. It was education matters that brought me back, in fact. I moved a while ago to somewhere with a considerable number of international students so I’m getting an interesting viewpoint. Chinese/Hong Kong students going from being relieved they are here, to thinking they’d be better off back home, for one.
My hunch is that it really is all about picking the best possible time for a lockdown, when the make that call it will happen very quickly.
Obviously the biggest concern is it being still airborne for hours, if true it is effectively a chemical weapon. Although, the researchers are saying they don't know if this is actually how transmission occurs and tests with SARS produced similar results.
In the province, Lodi, we have had the 5th consecutive day of sub 10% increments, the 40% compound increase over those 5 days has taken the province's infection rate to around 0.45%.
This is why I cannot get my head around the idea of a 70% infection rate, it simply does not chime with what we are seeing, place-by-place, nor with how previous pandemics have scaled with time. So, if 70% is being bandied around, I'm really not seeing why? OK, 70% is possible and has been seen in flus and plagues, I get that, but this Coronavirus does not seem to be behaving like that kind of beastie, even if you allow that future pandemic waves will be bigger.
Equally, the cries of China must be lying, Iran must be lying are tiresome, bandied about with numbers that are so far out of whack with anything we have seen elsewhere as to be fantastical. OK, Iran could very well be underreporting, their public health response could be so continuingly poor that the numbers are multiples of what we are seeing in Europe. But the lurid made up stuff is just someone pulling a number out of the air like some Tiddler the Storytelling Pandemic Fish?
It is reasonable to ask why not 70%. I don't know. Could it be co-immunity from other strains - might explain kids' immunities, given they tend to be snot factories at the best of times, and in environments of large scale and rotating close mingling. Could it simply be the slower time to onward infection (5 days vs 1.5 for flu) meaning health measures can better keep apace with the somewhat gentler exponent. But it seems, from the evidence, that 70% really is not where we are heading on any sensible reading.
OK, it could be 70% over 10-20 years if this becomes nativised. But there will be a lot of tuning of health care responses, a lot of medical development, a lot of mutation of the virus in the meantime.
It's not just flu if you get it, the deadliness is greater, the chance of needing intensive care is greater - this ICU need appears to be the very crux of the challenge - but the spread - that is clearly less, and it can be used to peg back the whole public health challenge.onto, yes, a scale akin to a really bad flu season, if we do this well.