Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The other, more metaphysical theory is that the more you preoccupy yourself with Coronavirus, the more you attract it to you.
Or that it attacks health workers and their bosses, such as the UK Health Minister, Nadine Dorries
Yes, but that would fit with my theory, which is more all-encompassing.
I still think it's more likely to be the air con. But I suppose it could be both.
Air con is not a bad guess, to my mind.
IF I caught it back in Bangkok in January (and I pray that I did, immunity!) then I surely got it through sitting in bars and restaurants in steamy Bangkok, alongside lots of Chinese tourists, all of us enjoying the aircon
Especially if you're talking a lot, like at a conference, and/or under stress, like a doctor. It doesn't explain the German carnival outbreak, which would have been outdoors I suppose?
If you do close schools to slow/stop the outbreak when do you open them again? When there's a vaccine? When there are 0 cases? That could be weeks or months. And if you reopen before either of those dont we just start the infection curve off all over again?
Pending a miracle, that’s the expectation - not that any politician will want to spell it out. See yesterday’s Newsnight.
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.
That`s an interesting post. I guess the polls are key.
If 1 person in the world had the virus should we all stop shaking hands? No If 90% of the world have the virus should we all stop shaking hands? Yes Somewhere in between there is therefore a cross over point.
It is not exact or known but the job of the CMO to decide where it is. Ill take their advice gladly and with thanks for the difficult job they are doing.
There's not just raw percentages but also context. Would you handshake...
Someone just back from holiday in a high-risk area? (Additional risk to you)
Someone elderly, a smoker, or with chronic ill-health? (Additional risk to them)
Someone who has a lot of contact with high-risk groups? (Additional risk to those people if you spread it to your contact; also a greater risk to you if your contact might have have acquired it from them)
Someone who shakes an awful lot of hands? (Again, higher risk to you, but also to the people your contact will shake hands with in the near future if you turn out to have infected them)
Someone mission-critical or business-critical? (Additional risk to your mission/business if one of you infects the other)
So to a certain extent we have to use guidance to assess our own risks. But certain groups might get different guidance (MPs live in a fairly close network with top decision-makers and advisers, one might think they'd be told to cut down on the hand-shaking sooner than the rest of us). Moreover if handshakes are not strictly necessary, do their benefits really outweigh risks for any of us at this time? That might at least reduce the threshold at which "stop handshaking" becomes worthwhile advice, to a lower level than more harsh actions like "remain at home where possible".
All good points and questions. Obviously hand shaking is not mandatory and has little benefit beyond maintaining social norms. Its up to us to do is what is right for us and for some that will mean additional precautions. But the stop handshake message should be driven by the CMO rather than twitter.
Problem is, if HMG aren't being upfront about what individual, personal steps we can take (beyond using disposable tissues and washing our hands) to protect ourselves, then well-intentioned people seeking to look after them and theirs are going to turn elsewhere for advice. Like FrancisU of this parish taking extra steps to protect his vulnerable parents. HMG have a far clearer picture than we do about what actions would be effective or ineffective - it's obvious this goes far beyond tissues and handwashing and the most high-risk people could reduce their chances of infection by taking appropriate additional steps - but they're not telling us how.
That is the natural but unfortunate consequence of various tensions in their messaging strategy. Their core focus is on public health and slowing community transmission (rather than risk-minimisation for any individual subgroup), they want to achieve clarity and educate people about the basics (like message discipline during election campaigns, some stuff needs to be repeated hundreds of times until Joe Average "gets it"), they don't want to issue lots of confusing and apparently contradictory messages for different subgroups, they want to control timing of messaging and not ramp up premature panic, yet they need to balance this with a certain level of trust-building and transparency. Tough call, and I'm prepared to cut them a lot of slack.
If they decide the best balance to meet their objectives is some way away from transparency, then so be it and I hope they made the correct call. But if that means leaving us to our own devices to assess the risks/benefits of our own actions, even when they have performed a more thorough and better-evidenced analysis of those actions than us individuals ever could, then it must be accepted that people will look elsewhere for advice. (In fact that's an inherent risk of HMG's information drip-feed strategy, and one they will surely have baked in to their decision-making.)
If a reasonably well-informed person has spent the last week shaking hundreds of hands at conference centres, that may not have been actively inadvisable but it's clearly not risk-minimising. If they then spent their evenings visiting their elderly mum in her care home, how many of us would find that "wise" regardless of whether the CMO hadn't formally proclaimed the kibosh on it?
Unlike most, I actually think both luckyguy's ideas may be right to a certain extent. It may be several centuries before science catches up with the interaction of fear and optimism on the one hand, and disease on the other, though - if we're around that long.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,
A lot turns on the question asked by the SNP woman: are children spreaders or not? Didn't get an answer.
Because the plan revolves around the idea that we don’t know for sure. Admitting otherwise negates the plan.
You’d think that the plan’s contact with the reality would change minds but they seem to have fixated on what they plan to happen. With knowledge of the virus multiplying so quickly, it’s not advisable and is hostage to a large number of fortunes.
It’s a gamble in tune with this site. Unfortunately it appears as though they’ve staked their house on Bernie Sanders.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
That's why I said near, and then they will just extend them continuously.
I am rather nervous now of the strategy. I can only think that the numbers (which aren't public) are still looking ok-ish and not doing an Italy of 50% increase day on day.
Interesting point.
We have lots of Chinese clients and from memory what happened there was that everyone went off from work for Chinese New Year, as normal, then the government locked the country down by extending the holiday for several more weeks.
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.
He'll be dominant as long as he is a winner. He won a GE convincingly and many of the new intake owe him their jobs but as we know the Conservative Parliamentary Party is utterly ruthless when it comes to its own self preservation.
When (not if) Boris starts losing ground in the polls and looking unpopular the very same MPs and activists who cheer him to the rafters now will turn on him and send him packing as long as they can find an alternative who can keep their seats. Without said alternative, Johnson, like Major before him, can continue no matter how bad the polls and the Council seat losses get.
I've spend the evening walking around central London and it doesn't seem particularly abnormal. The number of people is slightly down on what you'd expect, but not massively so. It's a bit like the period between Christmas and New Year (well, up to 30th December). There are still loads of people in certain places like Waterloo station. Restaurants and cafes are reasonably busy. Difficult to imagine London being shut down like Italy has been.
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.
That`s an interesting post. I guess the polls are key.
That's kind of how our system works.
I don't like Boris much either. There are many sensible people on the Tory backbenches.
Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The Iranian regime looks under severe pressure right now thanks to Covid-19, with a side order of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,
A lot turns on the question asked by the SNP woman: are children spreaders or not? Didn't get an answer.
Because the plan revolves around the idea that we don’t know for sure. Admitting otherwise negates the plan.
You’d think that the plan’s contact with the reality would change minds but they seem to have fixated on what they plan to happen. With knowledge of the virus multiplying so quickly, it’s not advisable and is hostage to a large number of fortunes.
It’s a gamble in tune with this site. Unfortunately it appears as though they’ve staked their house on Bernie Sanders.
It's tricky. There is some evidence that adults are not spreaders when they are asymptomatic. Most children are almost always asymptomatic (there are a handful of exceptions). Are they therefore not spreaders? If they are not then the argument for closing the schools is very different.
He seems to be suggesting you can only spread the virus when you have symptoms
Is that not crap?
Not necessarily. A microbiology prof said the other day that there is little evidence of passing on before symptoms.
A microbiology professor? What do they know.
WHO says that studies have shown that people can shed the virus up to 48 hours before symptoms show. They don’t think it’s as likely for this to happen as from the symptomatic but there is a lot of uncertainty.
Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The Iranian regime looks under severe pressure right now thanks to Covid-19, with a side order of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The very best health care systems seem to be coping better with the situation. For instance, Norway has had 602 cases and no fatalities so far. That's 136 cases more than the UK.
Italy numbers today are really important, if sub 2k then it's pretty good news. If 3k+ then very bad.
I fear that they are going to be bad. The indication yesterday was that the numbers were not in fact complete, bad as they were.
Containment only really started in Italy a day or two ago. Early days to say it has or hasn't worked.
There was a virologist on yesterday morning. His assumption was still that about 80% of us were going to get this, maybe over as long as 4 years. It put the containment into perspective. What China and SK have done is bring the spread now to a virtual stop by aggressive action. But the virus is still there. When the containment slides it will, if that virologist is right, pick up again. In this scenario the Chinese etc are not so much flattening the curve as creating a series of humps.
This seems to be the government's assumption too. Talking of having 20% of our workforce off "at any one time" as the Chancellor did today indicates more than 6m people of working age either infected or contained to prevent spread. This is vastly bigger than anything seen in any country to date in terms of cases if not lock down. Italy currently has 168 cases per million. The government are indicating scenarios when that might be in the low hundreds of thousands.
My imagination fails me at that point. When you see what has happened in Italy at the current level of infection I cannot imagine 10 or 100 times more. I just don't believe it but it may be because I just don't want to.
I think the 80% is probably high.
Why? Because we may well have a cure (or something that severely limits the virus's infection capability, like Tamiflu does with influenza), or a vaccine.
And even if we don't get those things, there are fewer and fewer people who can catch the disease each time around. Once 50% of people have had it, it's effectively 50% less likely to spread as you need to have twice the contact to come into the same number of vulnerable people.
But yes, the humps is right. And it's the right way to deal with. It allows health services not to be overloaded. It gives us time to improve our capability to deal with the virus.
There is a meaningful economic hit. Lots of people die. But it's not an existential threat.
Obviously the 80% figure is based on an estimate of the effective reproduction number of the virus, called R. The number of new cases produced by each case, in the absence of any existing immunity. Your 50% argument is the reason why it's 80%, not 100%. The fraction that will remain uninfected is 1/R. This is all very basic epidemiology modelling.
Apparently that 80% figure is based on an assumption that R=5, which seems extremely large. I don't know where it comes from. The estimate for R0 in the WHO-China Joint Mission report is 2-2.5. But of course even that is the _basic_ number, not the _effective_ number. That is, it's the number in the absence of any intervention to change people's natural behaviour. In China, the epidemic has been effectively stopped because the effective number was reduced to less than 1. The same seems to have been done in South Korea.
It's a matter of policy whether we try to do the same here, or whether we just go for "herd immunity" by allowing the majority of the population to contract the infection. That would "get it over with," with significant but relatively small fatality among the working-age population, but at the cost of a huge number of elderly people dying. But anyway, it seems to have been decided that we're going to do that, rather than follow the Chinese/Korean route.
You saved me posting a similar thing, but it's possible the correct model is SIRS or SEIRS (rather than SIR or SEIR). Recovered people may become susceptible again (immunity fades or virus mutates). This seems a more plausible worst-case, rather than R0=5.
A lot of the modelling of this one seems to come up with about 5-7% of the population catching it in a peak year, probably the coming winter. Someone posted a Harvard modelling paper on here a few days ago.
I don't know if coronavirusses are generally less efficient than influenzas, but that is also what Jeremy Hunt tweeted as the most likely trajectory, the 20% being stated as a not expected worst case planning assumption.
The modelling paper also mooted the possibility of some degree of co-immunity between COVID and two strains of common cold Coronavirus that do show co-immunity with each other.
Anyway, I've seen nothing to change my calculations of 2k Italy deaths this time out, and 20k over the 2-3 year course of the pandemic.
Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The Iranian regime looks under severe pressure right now thanks to Covid-19, with a side order of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
US conservative publication National Review nails Trump’s failings:
“In a serious public-health crisis, the public has the right to expect the government's chief executive to lead in a number of crucial ways: by prioritizing the problem properly, by deferring to subject-matter experts when appropriate while making key decisions in informed and sensible ways, by providing honest and careful information to the country, by calming fears and setting expectations, and by addressing mistakes and setbacks. Trump so far hasn't passed muster on any of these metrics."
More accurate to say it's a hostile environment for shirkers.
The one I used to work in was a hostile environment for everyone - particularly the staff and the very many jobseekers who were trying their best to find work while avoiding unwanted attention and often verbal abuse from a minority of clients who made the whole experience an ordeal.
I've spend the evening walking around central London and it doesn't seem particularly abnormal. The number of people is slightly down on what you'd expect, but not massively so. It's a bit like the period between Christmas and New Year (well, up to 30th December). There are still loads of people in certain places like Waterloo station. Restaurants and cafes are reasonably busy. Difficult to imagine London being shut down like Italy has been.
Once they see the evening news with corridors full of non-ventilated virus sufferers gasping their last whilst medics run around in tears, then the bars will empty.
Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The Iranian regime looks under severe pressure right now thanks to Covid-19, with a side order of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
As with Romania, it all looks stable(ish) until it isnt. The question is really, is the Revolutionary Guard interested in revolution?
The other, more metaphysical theory is that the more you preoccupy yourself with Coronavirus, the more you attract it to you.
Or that it attacks health workers and their bosses, such as the UK Health Minister, Nadine Dorries
Yes, but that would fit with my theory, which is more all-encompassing.
I still think it's more likely to be the air con. But I suppose it could be both.
Air con is not a bad guess, to my mind.
IF I caught it back in Bangkok in January (and I pray that I did, immunity!) then I surely got it through sitting in bars and restaurants in steamy Bangkok, alongside lots of Chinese tourists, all of us enjoying the aircon
Especially if you're talking a lot, like at a conference, and/or under stress, like a doctor. It doesn't explain the German carnival outbreak, which would have been outdoors I suppose?
Apparently the German outbreak wasn't outdoors, it was in a party in a community hall.
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
I guess it shows how unusual these figures are.
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
Kennedy-Buttigieg 2024 v Pence in my view if Biden fails to beat Trump in November but I think Biden v Trump will be very close, maybe the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000.
At the moment my closest guess is Biden picks up Pennsylvania and North Carolina but Trump holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida to win 270 to 268
I had yet another conversation this evening with an extended family member which revolved around 'it's all hysteria and media hype'.
I really hope that in three month's time they get to tell me: I told you so.
That thread is quite fascinating.
A common reaction to people who realised all this weeks ago, who try to tell friends, family, colleagues, is outright anger. Born of fear, I suppose.
This in turn is a feature of plagues through the ages, as I've been discovering. The first guy who says Uh, look, all these people with bubos, I don't reckon it's particularly a good sign - is not a popular person.
On declining to shake hands today, I was told I was being politically correct....
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
I guess it shows how unusual these figures are.
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
Kennedy-Buttigieg 2024 v Pence in my view if Biden fails to beat Trump in November but I think Biden v Trump will be very close, maybe the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000
US conservative publication National Review nails Trump’s failings:
“In a serious public-health crisis, the public has the right to expect the government's chief executive to lead in a number of crucial ways: by prioritizing the problem properly, by deferring to subject-matter experts when appropriate while making key decisions in informed and sensible ways, by providing honest and careful information to the country, by calming fears and setting expectations, and by addressing mistakes and setbacks. Trump so far hasn't passed muster on any of these metrics."
And by contrast, Boris passes that test with flying colours.
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
I guess it shows how unusual these figures are.
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
Kennedy-Buttigieg 2024 v Pence in my view if Biden fails to beat Trump in November but I think Biden v Trump will be very close, maybe the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000.
At the moment my closest guess is Biden picks up Pennsylvania and North Carolina but Trump holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida to win 270 to 268
"Everybody knows that The Plague is coming Everybody knows that it's moving fast
Everybody knows that you're in trouble Everybody knows what you've been through From the bloody Cross on top of Calvary to the beach at Malibu Everybody knows it's coming apart Take one last look at this Sacred Heart Before it blows And everybody knows."
Sorry. Just when you're feeling depressed about something there's no-one quite like Leonard Cohen
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.
If Boris is fading the Tories are likely doomed anyway, Boris polls clearly above his party, hence the reason the Tories turned to him in the first place after May became unpopular and hence so many Leavers in the North and Midlands lent their votes to Boris (note Boris not the Tory Party) to get Brexit done. In that sense Boris had a unique appeal to the white working class as Trump has had in the USA
I've spend the evening walking around central London and it doesn't seem particularly abnormal. The number of people is slightly down on what you'd expect, but not massively so. It's a bit like the period between Christmas and New Year (well, up to 30th December). There are still loads of people in certain places like Waterloo station. Restaurants and cafes are reasonably busy. Difficult to imagine London being shut down like Italy has been.
Once they see the evening news with corridors full of non-ventilated virus sufferers gasping their last whilst medics run around in tears, then the bars will empty.
Yep. If you think back to 8 weeks, then 4 weeks, then 2 weeks, then 1 week ago the nation is clearly, very very clearly, getting properly anxious about it. The Normalcy Bias trope is fading fast.
I don't glory in this. I wish to god the dismissives were right. But they aren't and they won't be.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,
A lot turns on the question asked by the SNP woman: are children spreaders or not? Didn't get an answer.
Because the plan revolves around the idea that we don’t know for sure. Admitting otherwise negates the plan.
You’d think that the plan’s contact with the reality would change minds but they seem to have fixated on what they plan to happen. With knowledge of the virus multiplying so quickly, it’s not advisable and is hostage to a large number of fortunes.
It’s a gamble in tune with this site. Unfortunately it appears as though they’ve staked their house on Bernie Sanders.
It's tricky. There is some evidence that adults are not spreaders when they are asymptomatic. Most children are almost always asymptomatic (there are a handful of exceptions). Are they therefore not spreaders? If they are not then the argument for closing the schools is very different.
The study I referred to found that children showed few symptoms, a bit of a cough and suchlike. The supposition is that it’s due to ‘pristine lungs’ as to why children appear with such weak signs of the virus. The opposite being the polluted, heavy smokers of Wuhan.
More accurate to say it's a hostile environment for shirkers.
The one I used to work in was a hostile environment for everyone - particularly the staff and the very many jobseekers who were trying their best to find work while avoiding unwanted attention and often verbal abuse from a minority of clients who made the whole experience an ordeal.
Better to phone it in.
Last time I was in a Job Centre a security man stormed over and demanded that I stopped using my mobile phone. I was speaking to a potential employer about a job interview.
I had yet another conversation this evening with an extended family member which revolved around 'it's all hysteria and media hype'.
I really hope that in three month's time they get to tell me: I told you so.
That thread is quite fascinating.
A common reaction to people who realised all this weeks ago, who try to tell friends, family, colleagues, is outright anger. Born of fear, I suppose.
This in turn is a feature of plagues through the ages, as I've been discovering. The first guy who says Uh, look, all these people with bubos, I don't reckon it's particularly a good sign - is not a popular person.
On declining to shake hands today, I was told I was being politically correct....
Just been speaking to someone related to a Doctor in Iran... probably not a surprise to anyone, but if you took the number of deaths the Iranian govt are reporting from Coronavirus so far, then pick a number between 10 and 20 and multiply it by that number, then double it, then double it again...
The Iranian regime looks under severe pressure right now thanks to Covid-19, with a side order of an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
As with Romania, it all looks stable(ish) until it isnt. The question is really, is the Revolutionary Guard interested in revolution?
If there is a mass outbreak of the virus amongst the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, then the Ayatollahs should be worried.
I must be unusual because everyone I deal with is seriously concerned about Covid-19. The most relaxed person I know is my mother.
You must mix in different circles to me. Up here in the midlands nobody seems concerned. Just annoyed that there`s no bog rolls in Waitrose.
Well, that’s not true of Cannock. I’ve been bombarded with questions all day about what happens if the school has to close. Then I went to Chase Hospital for a routine appointment to find the doors had massive signs saying ‘Do Not Enter’ all over them. Turns out it was intended only for people with Covid 19 symptoms, but it was quite confusing.
I think at the moment the perception, the likes of Eadric, is doing an awful lot of damage - far more, indeed, than the current reality.
Today was the first time people at my work had gotten into an extended discussion about about the coronavirus. Concern without extravagant posturing was the general tone.
I must be unusual because everyone I deal with is seriously concerned about Covid-19. The most relaxed person I know is my mother.
You must mix in different circles to me. Up here in the midlands nobody seems concerned. Just annoyed that there`s no bog rolls in Waitrose.
There are people out there that actually think this is not a serious situation?
Well, I`d say loads of people are sanguine about it, think this is something we will have to learn to live with. Containment won`t work. Death rate will be low enough to temper serious concern (unless old and frail).
I must be unusual because everyone I deal with is seriously concerned about Covid-19. The most relaxed person I know is my mother.
You must mix in different circles to me. Up here in the midlands nobody seems concerned. Just annoyed that there`s no bog rolls in Waitrose.
Well, that’s not true of Cannock. I’ve been bombarded with questions all day about what happens if the school has to close. Then I went to Chase Hospital for a routine appointment to find the doors had massive signs saying ‘Do Not Enter’ all over them. Turns out it was intended only for people with Covid 19 symptoms, but it was quite confusing.
I think at the moment the perception, the likes of Eadric, is doing an awful lot of damage - far more, indeed, than the current reality.
I disagree. We are two weeks or so from Italy. Unless someone can come up with some reasons why it will be different here.
Italy numbers today are really important, if sub 2k then it's pretty good news. If 3k+ then very bad.
I fear that they are going to be bad. The indication yesterday was that the numbers were not in fact complete, bad as they were.
Containment only really started in Italy a day or two ago. Early days to say it has or hasn't worked.
There was a virologist on t don't want to.
I think the 80% is probably high. Lots of people die. But it's not an existential threat.
Obviously the 80% figure is based on an estimate of the effective reproduction number of the virus, called R. The number of new cases produced by each case, in the absence of any existing immunity. Your 50% argument is the reason why it's 80%, not 100%. The fraction that will remain uninfected is 1/R. This is all very basic epidemiology modelling.
Apparently that 80% figure is based on an assumption that R=5, which seems extremely large. I don't know where it comes from. The estimate for R0 in the WHO-China Joint Mission report is 2-2.5. But of course even that is the _basic_ number, not the _effective_ number. That is, it's the number in the absence of any intervention to change people's natural behaviour. In China, the epidemic has been effectively stopped because the effective number was reduced to less than 1. The same seems to have been done in South Korea.
It's a matter of policy whether we try to do the same here, or whether we just go for "herd immunity" by allowing the majority of the population to contract the infection. That would "get it over with," with significant but relatively small fatality among the working-age population, but at the cost of a huge number of elderly people dying. But anyway, it seems to have been decided that we're going to do that, rather than follow the Chinese/Korean route.
You saved me posting a similar thing, but it's possible the correct model is SIRS or SEIRS (rather than SIR or SEIR). Recovered people may become susceptible again (immunity fades or virus mutates). This seems a more plausible worst-case, rather than R0=5.
A lot of the modelling of this one seems to come up with about 5-7% of the population catching it in a peak year, probably the coming winter. Someone posted a Harvard modelling paper on here a few days ago.
I don't know if coronavirusses are generally less efficient than influenzas, but that is also what Jeremy Hunt tweeted as the most likely trajectory, the 20% being stated as a not expected worst case planning assumption.
The modelling paper also mooted the possibility of some degree of co-immunity between COVID and two strains of common cold Coronavirus that do show co-immunity with each other.
Anyway, I've seen nothing to change my calculations of 2k Italy deaths this time out, and 20k over the 2-3 year course of the pandemic.
Christ, I hope you're right but if you are right (and I too saw the Jeremy Hunt tweets), why is a clever, responsible, sober politician like Angela Merkel telling the Germans to expect 60-70% of them to be infected?
I had yet another conversation this evening with an extended family member which revolved around 'it's all hysteria and media hype'.
I really hope that in three month's time they get to tell me: I told you so.
That thread is quite fascinating.
A common reaction to people who realised all this weeks ago, who try to tell friends, family, colleagues, is outright anger. Born of fear, I suppose.
This in turn is a feature of plagues through the ages, as I've been discovering. The first guy who says Uh, look, all these people with bubos, I don't reckon it's particularly a good sign - is not a popular person.
On declining to shake hands today, I was told I was being politically correct....
It’s Social Distancing gone mad?
Happened to me too. The social more is so strong people take offence to it and think you're overreacting.
The implication is that you're saying they're unclean. Hence the offence.
I must be unusual because everyone I deal with is seriously concerned about Covid-19. The most relaxed person I know is my mother.
You must mix in different circles to me. Up here in the midlands nobody seems concerned. Just annoyed that there`s no bog rolls in Waitrose.
Well, that’s not true of Cannock. I’ve been bombarded with questions all day about what happens if the school has to close. Then I went to Chase Hospital for a routine appointment to find the doors had massive signs saying ‘Do Not Enter’ all over them. Turns out it was intended only for people with Covid 19 symptoms, but it was quite confusing.
I think at the moment the perception, the likes of Eadric, is doing an awful lot of damage - far more, indeed, than the current reality.
I disagree. We are two weeks or so from Italy. Unless someone can come up with some reasons why it will be different here.
I would have thought the more pertinent question is why Italy has been hit so very hard so very swiftly. What has been going on there that is not replicated in, say, France?
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
I guess it shows how unusual these figures are.
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
Kennedy-Buttigieg 2024 v Pence in my view if Biden fails to beat Trump in November but I think Biden v Trump will be very close, maybe the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000
Your fascination with Kennedy is an odd one.
If he wins the Massachusetts Senate race this year and Trump is re elected he is in pole position for 2024
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
I guess it shows how unusual these figures are.
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
Kennedy-Buttigieg 2024 v Pence in my view if Biden fails to beat Trump in November but I think Biden v Trump will be very close, maybe the closest election since Bush v Gore in 2000.
At the moment my closest guess is Biden picks up Pennsylvania and North Carolina but Trump holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida to win 270 to 268
2024 is Haley's year.
Probably only if Trump is defeated, if Trump is re elected VP Pence will almost certainly be GOP nominee
I must be unusual because everyone I deal with is seriously concerned about Covid-19. The most relaxed person I know is my mother.
You must mix in different circles to me. Up here in the midlands nobody seems concerned. Just annoyed that there`s no bog rolls in Waitrose.
There are people out there that actually think this is not a serious situation?
Well, I`d say loads of people are sanguine about it, think this is something we will have to learn to live with. Containment won`t work. Death rate will be low enough to temper serious concern (unless old and frail).
I think a lot of people think like that.
But if there is a 10% increase in the demand for icu beds the system will be stretched beyond recognition. If as looks the case 5% of infections require icu care then it’s not difficult to work out when the uk hits trouble.
Yeah it's bollocks. I have friends in the West Midlands and both of today's deaths are from there.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
It's a weird mix. Some of my friends who I expected to be smart and insightful are the worst kind of Just The Fluers. And still at it. Idiots.
Others are now very very worried, where they were entirely unconcerned a week ago. So things are changing, but are they changing fast enough?
No, I don't think they are. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to do an Israel. Ironically creating an island fortress might have been right up some Brexiteers' street. We could have done it. And if we didn't go as far as that, we could have had some really responsible proactive leadership from Johnson. That's simply not his thing though. He's reactive. Lazy. Always has been.
Yeah it's bollocks. I have friends in the West Midlands and both of today's deaths are from there.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
It's a weird mix. Some of my friends who I expected to be smart and insightful are the worst kind of Just The Fluers. And still at it. Idiots.
Others are now very very worried, where they were entirely unconcerned a week ago. So things are changing, but are they changing fast enough?
No, I don't think they are. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to do an Israel. Ironically creating an island fortress might have been right up some Brexiteers' street. We could have done it. And if we didn't go as far as that, we could have had some really responsible proactive leadership from Johnson. That's simply not his thing though. He's reactive. Lazy. Always has been.
We've blown it.
I thought you were one of those who thought it was a good idea to listen to the experts?
So our local supermarket staff are all wearing disposable gloves now, but still no signs of stock shortages. It's a small shop in city centre so I think these types of supermarkets fare better, panic buyers will take their car to a big supermarket to stock up. We have finally been told that we can work from home if we really feel its necessary (the higher ups have their heads completely in the sand).
Macron has announced an official speech tomorrow at 8pm (like a downing Street podium speech), its likely that France will be announcing much more strict measures at that point. Possibly a countrywide "soft" quarantine (work from home, social distancing, close schools and stop transport etc) with more stringent rules in certain regions. The outbreak here is very clustered compared to the UK which seems more spread out.
More accurate to say it's a hostile environment for shirkers.
The one I used to work in was a hostile environment for everyone - particularly the staff and the very many jobseekers who were trying their best to find work while avoiding unwanted attention and often verbal abuse from a minority of clients who made the whole experience an ordeal.
Better to phone it in.
Last time I was in a Job Centre a security man stormed over and demanded that I stopped using my mobile phone. I was speaking to a potential employer about a job interview.
Doesn’t surprise me. The security guys are so on edge. My role was more crowd control / conflict negotiator than employment advisor.
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
My place is now asking staff to take their laptops home at night just in case the decision to stop people coming into London is taken overnight. But they aren’t recommending people work from home where possible, which they could easily have done. It’s a bit naughty really as no one really wants to ask to work from home.
Yeah it's bollocks. I have friends in the West Midlands and both of today's deaths are from there.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
It's a weird mix. Some of my friends who I expected to be smart and insightful are the worst kind of Just The Fluers. And still at it. Idiots.
Others are now very very worried, where they were entirely unconcerned a week ago. So things are changing, but are they changing fast enough?
No, I don't think they are. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to do an Israel. Ironically creating an island fortress might have been right up some Brexiteers' street. We could have done it. And if we didn't go as far as that, we could have had some really responsible proactive leadership from Johnson. That's simply not his thing though. He's reactive. Lazy. Always has been.
We've blown it.
I thought you were one of those who thought it was a good idea to listen to the experts?
Yeah it's bollocks. I have friends in the West Midlands and both of today's deaths are from there.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
It's a weird mix. Some of my friends who I expected to be smart and insightful are the worst kind of Just The Fluers. And still at it. Idiots.
Others are now very very worried, where they were entirely unconcerned a week ago. So things are changing, but are they changing fast enough?
No, I don't think they are. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to do an Israel. Ironically creating an island fortress might have been right up some Brexiteers' street. We could have done it. And if we didn't go as far as that, we could have had some really responsible proactive leadership from Johnson. That's simply not his thing though. He's reactive. Lazy. Always has been.
We've blown it.
Simply not a sustainable strategy. You need to do better than think only one move ahead.
I've spend the evening walking around central London and it doesn't seem particularly abnormal. The number of people is slightly down on what you'd expect, but not massively so. It's a bit like the period between Christmas and New Year (well, up to 30th December). There are still loads of people in certain places like Waterloo station. Restaurants and cafes are reasonably busy. Difficult to imagine London being shut down like Italy has been.
Once they see the evening news with corridors full of non-ventilated virus sufferers gasping their last whilst medics run around in tears, then the bars will empty.
Yep. If you think back to 8 weeks, then 4 weeks, then 2 weeks, then 1 week ago the nation is clearly, very very clearly, getting properly anxious about it. The Normalcy Bias trope is fading fast.
I don't glory in this. I wish to god the dismissives were right. But they aren't and they won't be.
We are in deep, deep, trouble.
As deep as the snowdrifts you predicted for election day last December?
Yeah it's bollocks. I have friends in the West Midlands and both of today's deaths are from there.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
It's a weird mix. Some of my friends who I expected to be smart and insightful are the worst kind of Just The Fluers. And still at it. Idiots.
Others are now very very worried, where they were entirely unconcerned a week ago. So things are changing, but are they changing fast enough?
No, I don't think they are. We had an opportunity a couple of weeks ago to do an Israel. Ironically creating an island fortress might have been right up some Brexiteers' street. We could have done it. And if we didn't go as far as that, we could have had some really responsible proactive leadership from Johnson. That's simply not his thing though. He's reactive. Lazy. Always has been.
We've blown it.
Yet we are not even in the top 10 nations for coronavirus cases.
Not only are we behind China, the US, France, Germany, Italy and Spain and Japan and South Korea for Covid 19 cases but we are even behind smaller countries like Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland.
6,700 new cases today. By far the most so far, excluding the day when the Chinese changed their definitions. Been quite a strong upward trend in daily numbers for more than 2 weeks now.
Italy numbers today are really important, if sub 2k then it's pretty good news. If 3k+ then very bad.
I fear that they are going to be bad. The indication yesterday was that the numbers were not in fact complete, bad as they were.
Containment only really started in Italy a day or two ago. Early days to say it has or hasn't worked.
There was a virologist on t don't want to.
I think the 80% is probably high. Lots of people die. But it's not an existential threat.
Obviously the 80% figure is based on an estimate of the effective reproduction number of the virus, called R. The number of new cases produced by each case, in the absence of any existing immunity. Your 50% argument is the reason why it's 80%, not 100%. The fraction that will remain uninfected is 1/R. This is all very basic epidemiology modelling.
Apparently that 80% figure is based on an assumption that R=5, which seems extremely large. I don't know where it comes from. The estimate for R0 in the WHO-China Joint Mission report is 2-2.5. But of course even that is the _basic_ number, not the _effective_ number. That is, it's the number in the absence of any intervention to change people's natural behaviour. In China, the epidemic has been effectively stopped because the effective number was reduced to less than 1. The same seems to have been done in South Korea.
It's a matter of policy whether we try to do the same here, or whether we just go for "herd immunity" by allowing the majority of the population to contract the infection. That would "get it over with," with significant but relatively small fatality among the working-age population, but at the cost of a huge number of elderly people dying. But anyway, it seems to have been decided that we're going to do that, rather than follow the Chinese/Korean route.
You saved me posting a similar thing, but it's possible the correct model is SIRS or SEIRS (rather than SIR or SEIR). Recovered people may become susceptible again (immunity fades or virus mutates). This seems a more plausible worst-case, rather than R0=5.
A lot of the modelling of this one seems to come up with about 5-7% of the population catching it in a peak year, probably the coming winter. Someone posted a Harvard modelling paper on here a few days ago.
I don't know if coronavirusses are generally less efficient than influenzas, but that is also what Jeremy Hunt tweeted as the most likely trajectory, the 20% being stated as a not expected worst case planning assumption.
The modelling paper also mooted the possibility of some degree of co-immunity between COVID and two strains of common cold Coronavirus that do show co-immunity with each other.
Anyway, I've seen nothing to change my calculations of 2k Italy deaths this time out, and 20k over the 2-3 year course of the pandemic.
Christ, I hope you're right but if you are right (and I too saw the Jeremy Hunt tweets), why is a clever, responsible, sober politician like Angela Merkel telling the Germans to expect 60-70% of them to be infected?
Did she? Have you watched the press conference?
No, I just read the headline. Have I got it wrong? Hope so.
She gave a 90 min press conference today with the sec of health and the head of RKI (PHE equivalent). They repeated what had already been communicated over recent days. They pointed out that the universally accepted (with the exception of the USA and North Korea) WHO reasonable worst case scenario suggested max infection rates of "up to" 40-70%.
6,700 new cases today. By far the most so far, excluding the day when the Chinese changed their definitions. Been quite a strong upward trend in daily numbers for more than 2 weeks now.
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
My place is now asking staff to take their laptops home at night just in case the decision to stop people coming into London is taken overnight. But they aren’t recommending people work from home where possible, which they could easily have done. It’s a bit naughty really as no one really wants to ask to work from home.
Why not? Some of these companies seem completely backward I must say. WFH has been a thing for years.
Horton is the loathsome twat who published a paper linking MMR to autism and refused to retract it for twelve years despite overwhelming evidence that it was fraudulent. He is a fool, a liar and also a noted and dogmatic left wing political activist. I wouldn’t trust him if he said Dominic Cummings was an idiot.
Edit - I find out he was also a supporter of Roy Meadow. He should have been struck off years ago for those two together. He clearly has no interest in science and no understanding of it.
I've spend the evening walking around central London and it doesn't seem particularly abnormal. The number of people is slightly down on what you'd expect, but not massively so. It's a bit like the period between Christmas and New Year (well, up to 30th December). There are still loads of people in certain places like Waterloo station. Restaurants and cafes are reasonably busy. Difficult to imagine London being shut down like Italy has been.
Once they see the evening news with corridors full of non-ventilated virus sufferers gasping their last whilst medics run around in tears, then the bars will empty.
Yep. If you think back to 8 weeks, then 4 weeks, then 2 weeks, then 1 week ago the nation is clearly, very very clearly, getting properly anxious about it. The Normalcy Bias trope is fading fast.
I don't glory in this. I wish to god the dismissives were right. But they aren't and they won't be.
We are in deep, deep, trouble.
As deep as the snowdrifts you predicted for election day last December?
If Italy could look back two weeks they would absolutely quarantine the country...for fucks sake...Italy today....dead people cannot be collected, and anyone over 60 is not being hospitalised.....we have a two week window to do the right thing.....and Liverpool are playing Madrid with a full stadium....
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
Why not just implement it anyway, like several hundreds of other companies have done?
Ours have said that those who "feel it is necessary" may discuss options for working from home. It was said very much with an air of "you will be judged". What makes it more ridiculous is that we all regularly have worked from home previously on odd days or even during a week or so when it's been necessary. So it's just complete denial about the situation.
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
My place is now asking staff to take their laptops home at night just in case the decision to stop people coming into London is taken overnight. But they aren’t recommending people work from home where possible, which they could easily have done. It’s a bit naughty really as no one really wants to ask to work from home.
Yep. Same.
My consulting firm won't do anything unless the client says it's ok. And the client is following the Government.
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
Why not just implement it anyway, like several hundreds of other companies have done?
Ours have said that those who "feel it is necessary" may discuss options for working from home. It was said very much with an air of "you will be judged". What makes it more ridiculous is that we all regularly have worked from home previously on odd days or even during a week or so when it's been necessary. So it's just complete denial about the situation.
That’s my experience so far - it’s completely ridiculous.
Also, in my line of work, people are starting to get pretty keen for the order to work from home to be announced.
And it never does.
My place is now asking staff to take their laptops home at night just in case the decision to stop people coming into London is taken overnight. But they aren’t recommending people work from home where possible, which they could easily have done. It’s a bit naughty really as no one really wants to ask to work from home.
If you are in a job that can be performed effectively from home then there is no need to go in. I'm fortunate enough to be in that position and I've made the decision for myself.
Comments
That is the natural but unfortunate consequence of various tensions in their messaging strategy. Their core focus is on public health and slowing community transmission (rather than risk-minimisation for any individual subgroup), they want to achieve clarity and educate people about the basics (like message discipline during election campaigns, some stuff needs to be repeated hundreds of times until Joe Average "gets it"), they don't want to issue lots of confusing and apparently contradictory messages for different subgroups, they want to control timing of messaging and not ramp up premature panic, yet they need to balance this with a certain level of trust-building and transparency. Tough call, and I'm prepared to cut them a lot of slack.
If they decide the best balance to meet their objectives is some way away from transparency, then so be it and I hope they made the correct call. But if that means leaving us to our own devices to assess the risks/benefits of our own actions, even when they have performed a more thorough and better-evidenced analysis of those actions than us individuals ever could, then it must be accepted that people will look elsewhere for advice. (In fact that's an inherent risk of HMG's information drip-feed strategy, and one they will surely have baked in to their decision-making.)
If a reasonably well-informed person has spent the last week shaking hundreds of hands at conference centres, that may not have been actively inadvisable but it's clearly not risk-minimising. If they then spent their evenings visiting their elderly mum in her care home, how many of us would find that "wise" regardless of whether the CMO hadn't formally proclaimed the kibosh on it?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Buttigieg tried but it seems he was one term too soon.
Kennedy is waiting in the wings.
You’d think that the plan’s contact with the reality would change minds but they seem to have fixated on what they plan to happen. With knowledge of the virus multiplying so quickly, it’s not advisable and is hostage to a large number of fortunes.
It’s a gamble in tune with this site. Unfortunately it appears as though they’ve staked their house on Bernie Sanders.
We have lots of Chinese clients and from memory what happened there was that everyone went off from work for Chinese New Year, as normal, then the government locked the country down by extending the holiday for several more weeks.
When (not if) Boris starts losing ground in the polls and looking unpopular the very same MPs and activists who cheer him to the rafters now will turn on him and send him packing as long as they can find an alternative who can keep their seats. Without said alternative, Johnson, like Major before him, can continue no matter how bad the polls and the Council seat losses get.
I don't like Boris much either. There are many sensible people on the Tory backbenches.
I really hope that in three month's time they get to tell me: I told you so.
GCSEs start on the 11th May. A-levels on the 18th. If schools shut down for six weeks from April 1st, we have a logistical nightmare on our hands.
I don't know if coronavirusses are generally less efficient than influenzas, but that is also what Jeremy Hunt tweeted as the most likely trajectory, the 20% being stated as a not expected worst case planning assumption.
The modelling paper also mooted the possibility of some degree of co-immunity between COVID and two strains of common cold Coronavirus that do show co-immunity with each other.
Anyway, I've seen nothing to change my calculations of 2k Italy deaths this time out, and 20k over the 2-3 year course of the pandemic.
“In a serious public-health crisis, the public has the right to expect the government's chief executive to lead in a number of crucial ways: by prioritizing the problem properly, by deferring to subject-matter experts when appropriate while making key decisions in informed and sensible ways, by providing honest and careful information to the country, by calming fears and setting expectations, and by addressing mistakes and setbacks. Trump so far hasn't passed muster on any of these metrics."
Better to phone it in.
At the moment my closest guess is Biden picks up Pennsylvania and North Carolina but Trump holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida to win 270 to 268
"Everybody knows that
The Plague is coming
Everybody knows
that it's moving fast
Everybody knows that you're in
trouble
Everybody knows what you've been
through
From the bloody Cross on top of Calvary
to the beach at Malibu
Everybody knows it's coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows."
Sorry. Just when you're feeling depressed about something there's no-one quite like Leonard Cohen
I don't glory in this. I wish to god the dismissives were right. But they aren't and they won't be.
We are in deep, deep, trouble.
Lots of handshaking and mwah mwah-ing.
That said another shocking day. Couldn't buy a winner.
I think at the moment the perception, the likes of Eadric, is doing an awful lot of damage - far more, indeed, than the current reality.
I think a lot of people think like that.
Everyone is getting extremely concerned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_greeting
The implication is that you're saying they're unclean. Hence the offence.
And it never does.
We've blown it.
Macron has announced an official speech tomorrow at 8pm (like a downing Street podium speech), its likely that France will be announcing much more strict measures at that point. Possibly a countrywide "soft" quarantine (work from home, social distancing, close schools and stop transport etc) with more stringent rules in certain regions. The outbreak here is very clustered compared to the UK which seems more spread out.
They're Chinese.
Not only are we behind China, the US, France, Germany, Italy and Spain and Japan and South Korea for Covid 19 cases but we are even behind smaller countries like Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland.
Being an island probably also helps a bit
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
They repeated what had already been communicated over recent days.
They pointed out that the universally accepted (with the exception of the USA and North Korea) WHO reasonable worst case scenario suggested max infection rates of "up to" 40-70%.
https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/
Edit - I find out he was also a supporter of Roy Meadow. He should have been struck off years ago for those two together. He clearly has no interest in science and no understanding of it.
My consulting firm won't do anything unless the client says it's ok. And the client is following the Government.