Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Almost certainly the denominator in Italy is too small, but the non-exponential increase in positive tests over the past few days is at least a little hopeful perhaps
He's thinking: don't give me bloody corona, you bastard
Can you catch it at the same time as having a cold? Or could he have a cold, test negative, and then catch it? I think he should be isolating anyway...
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
It is quite an extraordinary government. There has never been anything like it before in the UK. Both intensely ideological and, as you say, populist.
We shall see, but it for all Boris was mocked for essentially seem to run as if his was a brand new government, it has seemed about as close to that as you can get 10 years into power. As refreshes of direction go its pretty dramatic. What's weird is those who have been in it the whole time.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
IF everyone stays home, and the indications are that compliance was pretty well total, how does the infection spread ? So yes, it’s possible.
Given that they seem to be attempting a return to work of sorts, we’ll find out fairly soon if it’s also true.
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Almost certainly the denominator in Italy is too small, but the non-exponential increase in positive tests over the past few days is at least a little hopeful perhaps
I really hope so too. Welcome to the site.
Thank you!! I'm a very long-time lurker (15 years or so), but this crisis has induced me to finally comment. As a statistician the numbers are fascinating, if alarming, but the more recent Italian data does suggest some hope I think, albeit the number of data points is very small still.
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I would like to eat cream cakes and drink red wine to my heart's desire, while simultaneously losing weight. A government that told the public that was possible would be hugely popular. It wouldn't mean that its policies were good ones.
But this government is like no other in recent times, and is addressing concerns across the divide and will be very voter friendly if it works
He's thinking: don't give me bloody corona, you bastard
Can you catch it at the same time as having a cold? Or could he have a cold, test negative, and then catch it? I think he should be isolating anyway...
He could have it, and simply not yet have it show on the test, by now a trodden path
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Is it that hard to believe given the way Italians tend to interact? One thing in our favour is that we are a bunch of miserable bar stewards. Things like that will really help.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Almost certainly the denominator in Italy is too small, but the non-exponential increase in positive tests over the past few days is at least a little hopeful perhaps
I really hope so too. Welcome to the site.
Thank you!! I'm a very long-time lurker (15 years or so), but this crisis has induced me to finally comment. As a statistician the numbers are fascinating, if alarming, but the more recent Italian data does suggest some hope I think, albeit the number of data points is very small still.
If you are going to stick around, do you really want to be Test1 ??
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
I don't follow your point. My issue was on a neutral issue of phrasing which struck me as odd, not whether it could be transformed into overt political commentary. Obviously it could (my goto example is when a headline had been 'Osbourne wields spending cuts ax' which was then toned down) do that.
It is quite an extraordinary government. There has never been anything like it before in the UK. Both intensely ideological and, as you say, populist.
There comes a time when the ideological and the populist clash. The only person who can juggle with all the balls at once is a thoroughgoing charlatan. But probably it will all come to grief in the near future, and inevitably.
OK, hands up all those suckers who thought that Boris Johnson was going to turn on his client base and reform pensions taxation to the detriment of higher earners?
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Almost certainly the denominator in Italy is too small, but the non-exponential increase in positive tests over the past few days is at least a little hopeful perhaps
I really hope so too. Welcome to the site.
Thank you!! I'm a very long-time lurker (15 years or so), but this crisis has induced me to finally comment. As a statistician the numbers are fascinating, if alarming, but the more recent Italian data does suggest some hope I think, albeit the number of data points is very small still.
If you are going to stick around, do you really want to be Test1 ??
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Almost certainly the denominator in Italy is too small, but the non-exponential increase in positive tests over the past few days is at least a little hopeful perhaps
I really hope so too. Welcome to the site.
Thank you!! I'm a very long-time lurker (15 years or so), but this crisis has induced me to finally comment. As a statistician the numbers are fascinating, if alarming, but the more recent Italian data does suggest some hope I think, albeit the number of data points is very small still.
If you are going to stick around, do you really want to be Test1 ??
Good point!! I think a change to JM1 would be in order
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I would like to eat cream cakes and drink red wine to my heart's desire, while simultaneously losing weight. A government that told the public that was possible would be hugely popular. It wouldn't mean that its policies were good ones.
But this government is like no other in recent times, and is addressing concerns across the divide and will be very voter friendly if it works
This government is hosing money like a fireman hoses water at an inferno, running up a huge deficit when the national debt is already sky high and ducking every tough decision that needs to be made. That will be very voter friendly in the short term. But at some point it will need to be paid for.
He's thinking: don't give me bloody corona, you bastard
Can you catch it at the same time as having a cold? Or could he have a cold, test negative, and then catch it? I think he should be isolating anyway...
He could have it, and simply not yet have it show on the test, by now a trodden path
I was canvassing with him on Friday and he was still coughing badly from a nasty cold. And he had tested negatively for the virus then. So I don't feel particularly anxious from being close in proximity though I am concerned more generally.
OK, hands up all those suckers who thought that Boris Johnson was going to turn on his client base and reform pensions taxation to the detriment of higher earners?
Doubling the junior ISA limits and child trust funds more to his clients taste! Exactly what we need to pull the country together!
OK, hands up all those suckers who thought that Boris Johnson was going to turn on his client base and reform pensions taxation to the detriment of higher earners?
Not in this budget because it had to be expansionary (and sort out those "poor" doctors that we need back).
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Is it that hard to believe given the way Italians tend to interact? One thing in our favour is that we are a bunch of miserable bar stewards. Things like that will really help.
I am trying to imagine a country largely composed of Yorkshiremen and Aberdonians. It's not attractive.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I would like to eat cream cakes and drink red wine to my heart's desire, while simultaneously losing weight. A government that told the public that was possible would be hugely popular. It wouldn't mean that its policies were good ones.
But this government is like no other in recent times, and is addressing concerns across the divide and will be very voter friendly if it works
You did say "If it works". What they are doing is inherently self-contradictory. So it cannot work. Except in the very short term. Of course.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Is it that hard to believe given the way Italians tend to interact? One thing in our favour is that we are a bunch of miserable bar stewards. Things like that will really help.
Italians are VERY tactile. Lots of hugs and kisses. Between all ages and genders.
They find our need for personal space quite odd, and aloof.
I'd like to think this gives us a fighting chance, but then I look at Scandinavia, Holland etc, who are much more like us in their social behaviour. Some of their numbers are shockingly bad:
Sweden, Holland and Norway all have more cases than us, and Denmark is about the same as us, despite a population less than a tenth the size
On the other hand, a less cold nation than Scandinavia, with a less tactile culture than the Mediterranean, might be reasonably well placed.
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I would like to eat cream cakes and drink red wine to my heart's desire, while simultaneously losing weight. A government that told the public that was possible would be hugely popular. It wouldn't mean that its policies were good ones.
But this government is like no other in recent times, and is addressing concerns across the divide and will be very voter friendly if it works
You did say "If it works". What they are doing is inherently self-contradictory. So it cannot work. Except in the very short term. Of course.
But it can work long term and to be fair Boris has stepped into the labour vacuum much like the SNP in Scotland
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
The cruise companies will collapse anyway, resolving the need for any ban
But before how many plague ships infest our ports?
Can't blame him - everything he thought he loved about Boris has evaporated before his eyes.
Yes, those who thought they had elected a Conservative promising "Thatcherism on steroids" now discover they have elected a big spending social democrat.
It's no surprise the Conservatives are polling 50% - everyone loves big public spending especially if there are no tax rises. Blair did something similar and he was very popular for a while.
The Conservatives have their own Tony Blair - I wonder if in 20 years time Johnson's reputation will be the same as Blair's is now.
Bozza must be the most leftwing Tory PM of all time.
The word you're looking for is "populist".
Sky explained the dismissive word 'populist' as a government listening to the electorate and reflecting their wishes in their policies
I would like to eat cream cakes and drink red wine to my heart's desire, while simultaneously losing weight. A government that told the public that was possible would be hugely popular. It wouldn't mean that its policies were good ones.
But this government is like no other in recent times, and is addressing concerns across the divide and will be very voter friendly if it works
You did say "If it works". What they are doing is inherently self-contradictory. So it cannot work. Except in the very short term. Of course.
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
I think those familar with cruises will give them a wide 'berth' for a very long time.
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
I think those familar with cruises will give them a wide 'berth' for a very long time.
But aircraft still worry me, especially long haul
Yeah, being in any enclosed space with even a single plague carrier doesn't sound like a good idea.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
I don't follow your point. My issue was on a neutral issue of phrasing which struck me as odd, not whether it could be transformed into overt political commentary. Obviously it could (my goto example is when a headline had been 'Osbourne wields spending cuts ax' which was then toned down) do that.
OK, hands up all those suckers who thought that Boris Johnson was going to turn on his client base and reform pensions taxation to the detriment of higher earners?
I thought that was a kite "leaked" by Cummings to discredit Javid.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
I really doubt the Chinese are going to go back to work just as they would have done in 2019. This is a new world.
They will go to work but do things radically differently. They know there is a bomb ready to explode if they allow it to spread again.
No doubt they are already developing new and innovative technologies to help them.
Anyone coughing or sneezing will also probably be dragged away by the men in white coats and face masks.
There was a guy in the supermarket today. He was coughing away, vaguely into his hand, then picking up fruit to examine, then putting it back. And so on.
I had a momentary urge to drive a knife into his brain.
How long before these urges become real, and people act on them?
Sneezing on someone will soon feel like an act of attempted homicide, and people will react accordingly. There are videos of terrible fights in China over just this issue.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
If I'm going to treat a dry cough at home I need to stock up on opiates. Gee's linctus, Collis Brown's and tincture of codeine should all be available over the counter. Boots needs to start stocking antitussives.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
So why did Leavers persist, indeed continue to persist, in pursuing the most extreme, disruptive, alienating and damaging version of Brexit that they can conceive?
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
So why did Leavers persist, indeed continue to persist, in pursuing the most extreme, disruptive, alienating and damaging version of Brexit that they can conceive?
Well some of them are idiots. And others got totally pissed off at those who thought they knew better. But most of us didn't. Which is why I (like you in fairness) supported May's deal. And I still think we will end up not a million miles from there in substance.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
So why did Leavers persist, indeed continue to persist, in pursuing the most extreme, disruptive, alienating and damaging version of Brexit that they can conceive?
Alastair an asteroid could be hitting the planet next week and you'd still be banging on about Brexit.
If this dreadful virus can do anything positive it might help bring together the nation and heal those particular wounds. There is more to life etc..
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Hopefully that's coming at 7.00pm.
Had an interesting conversation at work. "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc"
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
I think those familar with cruises will give them a wide 'berth' for a very long time.
But aircraft still worry me, especially long haul
The Braemar has told its passengers that they are heading for Bahamas, hoping to be allowed to dock on Saturday. Otherwise its passengers don’t know what’s going on (twitter hashtag #Braemar).
But anyone with a ship tracker can see its not heading that way right now.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
Is it that hard to believe given the way Italians tend to interact? One thing in our favour is that we are a bunch of miserable bar stewards. Things like that will really help.
I am trying to imagine a country largely composed of Yorkshiremen and Aberdonians. It's not attractive.
For some reason I find it weird that the BBC homepage headline is 'Sunak pumps billions into economy...' rather than 'Government pumps billions...' etc etc. I mean, he is chancellor and he's announced it, but its not not it was his decision alone.
Or it could say 'Pension funds with no choice but to pile money into gilts at nil interest pump billions of hard working people's funds into giant Ponzi scheme'.
Which Ponzi scheme?
The one where money goes in from one lot of people and out to another lot until the organiser runs away/loses the election.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
Renewal in power is a tricky act to pull off. To be fair to Shagger and Sunak the residents of Downing Street have pulled off a genuinely good budget that steps a lot of things on.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
So why did Leavers persist, indeed continue to persist, in pursuing the most extreme, disruptive, alienating and damaging version of Brexit that they can conceive?
Well some of them are idiots. And others got totally pissed off at those who thought they knew better. But most of us didn't. Which is why I (like you in fairness) supported May's deal. And I still think we will end up not a million miles from there in substance.
The government continues to pursue the most extreme version of Brexit that it can conceive. It is wilfully closing down compromises and continuing to grandstand against the EU in pursuit of easy applause. Why on earth would it start selling messy compromises now?
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
The government continues to pursue the most extreme version of Brexit that it can conceive. It is wilfully closing down compromises and continuing to grandstand against the EU in pursuit of easy applause. Why on earth would it start selling messy compromises now?
I've suspected for a while that it is grandstanding for a voter base who respectfully haven't a clue what the EU actually is and swallow any absurdity that their side throw at them. Not a word in the budget about throwing oceans of cash at HM Border Force and HM Customs and Exise to hurriedly recruit the army of red tape pushers and inspectors needed to do the checks that extreme Brexit requires to move stuff within the UK never mind onto the continent.
Its not physically possible to no deal and do what Gove threatens in the time given. No preparations are being made to implement any of it, indeed they have removed the M20 truck park and the truck fields plan. We are staying aligned to the EEA/CU, they will simply tell the tiny of brain that we have won back our sovereignty and the Mail and Sun will weave softly spoken lies about how amazing the new deal is to disguise that its the reality that its the old deal.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
So why did Leavers persist, indeed continue to persist, in pursuing the most extreme, disruptive, alienating and damaging version of Brexit that they can conceive?
Alastair an asteroid could be hitting the planet next week and you'd still be banging on about Brexit.
If this dreadful virus can do anything positive it might help bring together the nation and heal those particular wounds. There is more to life etc..
If we leave the European Space Agency, and with it the co-operative Asteroid Project with NASA, our country could be left naked to the skies...l
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Well, the Braemar is heading for the Bahamas now. A small batch of crew have got positive test results now, as well as the two passengers. Only those testing positive are being isolated, otherwise passengers are free to go about the ship as they please. I don’t see this ending well.
Surely cruises will/should be banned before flights?
I think those familar with cruises will give them a wide 'berth' for a very long time.
But aircraft still worry me, especially long haul
The Braemar has told its passengers that they are heading for Bahamas, hoping to be allowed to dock on Saturday. Otherwise its passengers don’t know what’s going on (twitter hashtag #Braemar).
But anyone with a ship tracker can see its not heading that way right now.
We will need the liners as hospital ships so it’s not all bad
I'd like to see some comparison of the death rate, rather than positive cases, growth in Italy a few weeks back and ours now. We seem to be on a slower trajectory, if I'm not very much mistaken.
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.
Some professor guy was on radio this morning taking calls from the public. He was asked whether if you caught Covid-19 you could catch it again. He said that catching the virus would likely give you immunity (assuming it hadn`t mutated), but this would wear off gradually over a few years.
Theres a name from the past. Got paid £10.8m to leave News International after the phone hacking scandal. Now same role in its direct successor NewsUK. All right for some.
The Zero Accountability Nation. At some point even mild-mannered liberals like me are going to be calling for the People's Justice Firing Squads.
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
To add to theory about conferences, I have just seen a guy from Singapore has tested positive after attending 2 big cryptocurrency events in London and Paris.
Actually, the stats from Italy is +2076 but around 600 were from yesterday's delay in tests from Lombardy
Thanks, that makes a bit more sense. That implies a slight slowdown, after 8 days around +24/25%, the last two would be 17% and 16%.
A fragile glimmer of hope. Grazie.
The last two days of figures have been very promising. Reports from my in-laws In Veneto also reflect what we are seeing in the stats. Although some of the videos I'm getting sent from Naples of people ignoring the curfew give me cause for worry.
That aside, very promising, and seems to match the slow down of the disease seen in Asia with similar measures implemented.
There is now a clear blue print for governments and citizens to follow in order to defeat this thing.
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.
I don't pretend to any special insight into this subject, but you do wonder if it mightn't be a good idea to allow the disease to proliferate amongst the young in exactly the fashion you describe.
Locking down everybody is an emergency response that's clearly unsustainable. Maybe better to try to isolate the elderly and vulnerable to slow down the proliferation of acute cases whilst building up herd immunity, and to give the healthcare system a fighting chance of coping in the process?
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
Comments
So yes, it’s possible.
Given that they seem to be attempting a return to work of sorts, we’ll find out fairly soon if it’s also true.
Thank you!! I'm a very long-time lurker (15 years or so), but this crisis has induced me to finally comment. As a statistician the numbers are fascinating, if alarming, but the more recent Italian data does suggest some hope I think, albeit the number of data points is very small still.
If you are going to stick around, do you really want to be Test1 ??
But probably it will all come to grief in the near future, and inevitably.
Some of us are stuck with terrible usernames
Other viruses are also available for party goers to enjoy.
Good point!! I think a change to JM1 would be in order
They will go to work but do things radically differently. They know there is a bomb ready to explode if they allow it to spread again.
No doubt they are already developing new and innovative technologies to help them.
Anyone coughing or sneezing will also probably be dragged away by the men in white coats and face masks.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1237719745450971136
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
But aircraft still worry me, especially long haul
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
If this dreadful virus can do anything positive it might help bring together the nation and heal those particular wounds. There is more to life etc..
Pointed him at the links to the pandemic plan on the gov.uk site, mentioned earlier - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu
A couple of hours later - "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because I don't see any reason not to in those documents"
So I sent him links to the specific bits - i.e. school closure possibly being a bad idea.
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
But anyone with a ship tracker can see its not heading that way right now.
another death 70+ patient.
Its not physically possible to no deal and do what Gove threatens in the time given. No preparations are being made to implement any of it, indeed they have removed the M20 truck park and the truck fields plan. We are staying aligned to the EEA/CU, they will simply tell the tiny of brain that we have won back our sovereignty and the Mail and Sun will weave softly spoken lies about how amazing the new deal is to disguise that its the reality that its the old deal.
Now 8 deaths.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Coronavirus case CONFIRMED in Desborough care home
https://www.northantstelegraph.co.uk/news/people/coronavirus-case-confirmed-desborough-care-home-2447384
Does this chime with others` understanding. Foxy?
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1237795211469783041?s=20
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield
That aside, very promising, and seems to match the slow down of the disease seen in Asia with similar measures implemented.
There is now a clear blue print for governments and citizens to follow in order to defeat this thing.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
Locking down everybody is an emergency response that's clearly unsustainable. Maybe better to try to isolate the elderly and vulnerable to slow down the proliferation of acute cases whilst building up herd immunity, and to give the healthcare system a fighting chance of coping in the process?
The real killers are the states between the Appalachians and the Mississippi.