"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
Can we prioritise those who already take deliveries?
Fetishising youth support, where does it get you I wonder.
Interestingly someone in the room with me in their 60s glanced at my screen as I was typing the above, and their reaction was 'Who is that? They look like they're about to die'
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.
Because they pass it on to each other, then they take it home to their parents and siblings, who then pass it on etc. The school setting is the perfect place for this virus, with it leaving the young as being asymptomatic or with limited symptoms, ensuring that they unknowingly and rapidly affect a community. This is why most other governments see it as a first point of call. That government pandemic plan is either remarkably naive or remarkably defeatist, the idea that ‘well, they won’t take any notice’ is shocking,
Looking at Italy we will soon see one of the outcomes of such a weak lockdown; when idiots flout it and the clever ones stay at home, natural selection takes hold. No lockdown condemns the clever as well, a remarkably unfair option.
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
Getting Rhode Island first up felt slightly harsh... I mean I must have been about a pixel off.
I found this a few years ago. It took me a few attempts to realise you can effectively choose the order you tackle them in (via the left/right arrows). Assuming it's the same thing.
Edit: it is the same, and it's still bloody hard, even after you've got all the obvious ones.
I wonder if the greater cultural similarities in terms of tactile and non-tactile cultures of Britain and Germany on the one hand, and France and Italy on the other, have got something to do with these apparenly different trajectories.
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.
Because they pass it on to each other, then they take it home to their parents and siblings, who then pass it on etc. The school setting is the perfect place for this virus, with it leaving the young as bing asymptomatic or with limited symptoms, ensuring that they unknowingly and rapidly affect a community. This is why most other governments see it as a first point of call. That government pandemic plan is either remarkably naive or remarkably defeatist, the idea that ‘well, they won’t take any notice’ is shocking
All the more so given that the credo of Brexit was that people didn't like being patronised by an out-of-touch elite.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
The government may be following a particular pattern of expert advice in taking a relatively hands-off approach so far, but they're not explaining what that advice or strategy is. That's not going to reassure a lot of people, unfortunately ; although I expect for Dominic Cummings reassurance is a long way down the list.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.
Says need legislation for the plan, meetings with opposition tomorrow, bill first thing next week.
Lockdown needs powers I guess?
I would have thought it would be covered by the Civil Contingencies Act, but maybe they are preferring to change the law, rather than use the provisions of that Act.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
We're less than 2 weeks behind Italy, that's going to be too late.
Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
These must be terrible, finely balanced decisions.
Brexit looks like a mere parlour game compared to this. History will be watching the actions of the key players in all this.
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
A bipartisan bill is a good idea. Acknowledging that his shadow was the first to raise the the SSP issue was quite classy. All very grown up if not very dramatic.
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.
The suggestion of home delivery was only for those that were self isolating relatively early on. There's been no suggestion that they expect the majority of the population to switch to it instead of supermarkets.
Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!
I suspect the reality is this - the virus is already here and spreading. A few thousand Spanish football fans probably incurs less risk to the UK than the impacts of starting a shut down now so that its less effective when needed in a few weeks.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
We're less than 2 weeks behind Italy, that's going to be too late.
But we're also have a doubling rate in days that's greater than Italy was at this stage - principally due to the fact that we are more aware/can see what's happening there, and people are starting to do some social distancing themselves I suspect.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?
William Weld has now won more delegates and votes in the Republican primary against Trump than Tulsi Gabbard has in the Democratic primary against Biden and Sanders
William Weld has now won more delegates and votes in the Republican primary against Trump than Tulsi Gubbard has in the Democratic primary against Biden and Sanders
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,
A lot turns on the question asked by the SNP woman: are children spreaders or not? Didn't get an answer.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
Yes, we could have an earlier, British Easter. Just the sort of flexibility Henry VIII surely had in mind when he passed his Withdrawal Bill.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
That's why I said near, and then they will just extend them continuously.
I am rather nervous now of the strategy. I can only think that the numbers (which aren't public) are still looking ok-ish and not doing an Italy of 50% increase day on day.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
Yes, we could have an earlier, British Easter. Just the sort of flexibility Henry VIII surely had in mind when he passed his Withdrawal Bill.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.
Quite apart from anything else there are exams starting after Easter. You'd think it would be better to bring a shutdown forward in the hope that you can relax it to allow exams to go ahead later.
Interesting header from Ms Cyclefree. Cultural complacency is a big problem in Britain, even more so when having an unwritten constitution requires you *not* to be complacent at all times.
It is indeed a superb header and it's a shame that probably most people didn't read it all the way through.
She is right to point to the populist warning signs. Being partisan for a moment, it is clear that the risk of the illiberal horrors Cyclefree mentions are asymmetric.
There is no chance that Starmer is going to sacrifice human rights. There is a danger with Johnson, and I'd suggest there's an even higher chance under some of his potential successors, Priti Patel springs to mind.
Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!
I commented on that earlier, who on earth let it happen? Liverpool FC I suspect. Madrid has been a hotspot for a few days.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
That's the posh term.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
Interesting header from Ms Cyclefree. Cultural complacency is a big problem in Britain, even more so when having an unwritten constitution requires you *not* to be complacent at all times.
It is indeed a superb header and it's a shame that I imagine most people didn't read it. She is right to point to the populist warning signs. Being partisan for a moment, it is clear that the risk of the illiberal horrors Cyclefree mentions are asymmetric. There is no chance that Starmer is going to sacrifice human rights. There is a danger with Johnson, and I'd suggest there's an even higher chance under some of his potential successors, Priti Patel springs to mind.
Could be worth a repeat once Covid fever tempers down, as it were.
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
That's the posh term.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
That's the posh term.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
That's the posh term.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
Devil's Arse Wipe is my term of choice for a select band of people - including Piers Morgan....
He seems to be suggesting you can only spread the virus when you have symptoms
Is that not crap?
Surely so. But it allows those MPs who had contact with Nad before she got sweaty to carry on as if nothing has happened.
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.
But also added “while she had symptoms”
I am very confused by this statement.
There are loads of papers on the pre-print medical sites that say you are infectious before showing symptoms and speculate that is why it has travelled so quickly.
Are we to take that our experts think this is flawed science?
Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.
That's the posh term.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.
The suggestion of home delivery was only for those that were self isolating relatively early on. There's been no suggestion that they expect the majority of the population to switch to it instead of supermarkets.
There is a surprising amount of "flex space" in the food home delivery system - particularly when they are straight from the warehouse. Amazon Pantry is very useful there, since it piggy backs onto the existing delivery system for... everything else.
In the case of deliveries scheduled 3-4 days into the future, this gives the supply chain a space to adapt to the order flow, and really max out.
Obviously the economy stops if everyone is at home. Note that in Italy etc it is not a shutdown of the economy - shops and restaurants are open. The idea is to reduce contact as much as is possible.
He seems to be suggesting you can only spread the virus when you have symptoms
Is that not crap?
Surely so. But it allows those MPs who had contact with Nad before she got sweaty to carry on as if nothing has happened.
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.
But also added “while she had symptoms”
I am very confused by this statement.
There are loads of papers on the pre-print medical sites that say you are infectious before showing symptoms and speculate that is why it has travelled so quickly.
Are we to take that our experts think this is flawed science?
As I said, I think he just wants to duck the question of the very many politicians who doubtless were with Nad before she got ill. Something they may come to regret.
I still think this might be air-conditioning borne. Yuck. Horrid virus being pumped everywhere in luscious cool air that it loves. It would explain the way it jumps. Doctors wear PPE, they shouldn't really get it.
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?
I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material. I expect us to get a tariff free, free trade agreement with a lot of mutual recognition of standards which are, of course, currently identical. The way some of these things are organised will of course change as they will become bilateral rather than as a member of the club.
We have already seen significant new investment in our car industry, an acceptance of the position by Airbus, a very favourable arrangement in relation to space and some movement in relation to the City. But I really don't want to refight the whole Brexit argument yet again. As I have said we have far more important concerns which will have significant effect on our economy, our safety and even our relationship with our near neighbours.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Hopefully that's coming at 7.00pm.
Had an interesting conversation at work. "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc"
For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151) Deaths: 827(+196) Healed 1045 (+41)
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Hopefully that's coming at 7.00pm.
Had an interesting conversation at work. "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc"
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?
I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material.
Then what's the point? This is not a trivial question - posing it is what propelled Boris Johnson to Downing Street.
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.
Italy numbers today are really important, if sub 2k then it's pretty good news. If 3k+ then very bad.
I fear that they are going to be bad. The indication yesterday was that the numbers were not in fact complete, bad as they were.
Containment only really started in Italy a day or two ago. Early days to say it has or hasn't worked.
There was a virologist on yesterday morning. His assumption was still that about 80% of us were going to get this, maybe over as long as 4 years. It put the containment into perspective. What China and SK have done is bring the spread now to a virtual stop by aggressive action. But the virus is still there. When the containment slides it will, if that virologist is right, pick up again. In this scenario the Chinese etc are not so much flattening the curve as creating a series of humps.
This seems to be the government's assumption too. Talking of having 20% of our workforce off "at any one time" as the Chancellor did today indicates more than 6m people of working age either infected or contained to prevent spread. This is vastly bigger than anything seen in any country to date in terms of cases if not lock down. Italy currently has 168 cases per million. The government are indicating scenarios when that might be in the low hundreds of thousands.
My imagination fails me at that point. When you see what has happened in Italy at the current level of infection I cannot imagine 10 or 100 times more. I just don't believe it but it may be because I just don't want to.
I think the 80% is probably high.
Why? Because we may well have a cure (or something that severely limits the virus's infection capability, like Tamiflu does with influenza), or a vaccine.
And even if we don't get those things, there are fewer and fewer people who can catch the disease each time around. Once 50% of people have had it, it's effectively 50% less likely to spread as you need to have twice the contact to come into the same number of vulnerable people.
But yes, the humps is right. And it's the right way to deal with. It allows health services not to be overloaded. It gives us time to improve our capability to deal with the virus.
There is a meaningful economic hit. Lots of people die. But it's not an existential threat.
Obviously the 80% figure is based on an estimate of the effective reproduction number of the virus, called R. The number of new cases produced by each case, in the absence of any existing immunity. Your 50% argument is the reason why it's 80%, not 100%. The fraction that will remain uninfected is 1/R. This is all very basic epidemiology modelling.
Apparently that 80% figure is based on an assumption that R=5, which seems extremely large. I don't know where it comes from. The estimate for R0 in the WHO-China Joint Mission report is 2-2.5. But of course even that is the _basic_ number, not the _effective_ number. That is, it's the number in the absence of any intervention to change people's natural behaviour. In China, the epidemic has been effectively stopped because the effective number was reduced to less than 1. The same seems to have been done in South Korea.
It's a matter of policy whether we try to do the same here, or whether we just go for "herd immunity" by allowing the majority of the population to contract the infection. That would "get it over with," with significant but relatively small fatality among the working-age population, but at the cost of a huge number of elderly people dying. But anyway, it seems to have been decided that we're going to do that, rather than follow the Chinese/Korean route.
You saved me posting a similar thing, but it's possible the correct model is SIRS or SEIRS (rather than SIR or SEIR). Recovered people may become susceptible again (immunity fades or virus mutates). This seems a more plausible worst-case, rather than R0=5.
If you do close schools to slow/stop the outbreak when do you open them again? When there's a vaccine? When there are 0 cases? That could be weeks or months. And if you reopen before either of those dont we just start the infection curve off all over again?
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?
I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material.
Then what's the point? This is not a trivial question - posing it is what propelled Boris Johnson to Downing Street.
This is absolutely my last one on this tonight. The point was to be able to make our own decisions and hold those responsible for making those decisions to account in a democratic way. That was and is important.
Comments
Interestingly someone in the room with me in their 60s glanced at my screen as I was typing the above, and their reaction was 'Who is that? They look like they're about to die'
Looking at Italy we will soon see one of the outcomes of such a weak lockdown; when idiots flout it and the clever ones stay at home, natural selection takes hold. No lockdown condemns the clever as well, a remarkably unfair option.
Edit: it is the same, and it's still bloody hard, even after you've got all the obvious ones.
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
Lockdown needs powers I guess?
COBRA with Boris tomorrow is very important
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
And good response from Jonathan Ashworth
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.
Brexit looks like a mere parlour game compared to this. History will be watching the actions of the key players in all this.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-and-caucuses
I am rather nervous now of the strategy. I can only think that the numbers (which aren't public) are still looking ok-ish and not doing an Italy of 50% increase day on day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Act_1928
She is right to point to the populist warning signs. Being partisan for a moment, it is clear that the risk of the illiberal horrors Cyclefree mentions are asymmetric.
There is no chance that Starmer is going to sacrifice human rights. There is a danger with Johnson, and I'd suggest there's an even higher chance under some of his potential successors, Priti Patel springs to mind.
Madrid has been a hotspot for a few days.
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237820230296010752
There are loads of papers on the pre-print medical sites that say you are infectious before showing symptoms and speculate that is why it has travelled so quickly.
Are we to take that our experts think this is flawed science?
In the case of deliveries scheduled 3-4 days into the future, this gives the supply chain a space to adapt to the order flow, and really max out.
Obviously the economy stops if everyone is at home. Note that in Italy etc it is not a shutdown of the economy - shops and restaurants are open. The idea is to reduce contact as much as is possible.
We have already seen significant new investment in our car industry, an acceptance of the position by Airbus, a very favourable arrangement in relation to space and some movement in relation to the City. But I really don't want to refight the whole Brexit argument yet again. As I have said we have far more important concerns which will have significant effect on our economy, our safety and even our relationship with our near neighbours.
See how many goes before you can fill out the Periodic Table.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trw1PbQt_Yo explains it quite clearly, I feel.
I still think it's more likely to be the air con. But I suppose it could be both.
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.