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Can we prioritise those who already take deliveries?RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?Malmesbury said:
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.RochdalePioneers said:
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...Malmesbury said:
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
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If they are keeping Parliament open, they need to quarantine it.0
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Anyone know how to watch the presser?0
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Fetishising youth support, where does it get you I wonder.HYUFD said:
Interestingly someone in the room with me in their 60s glanced at my screen as I was typing the above, and their reaction was 'Who is that? They look like they're about to die'
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Because they pass it on to each other, then they take it home to their parents and siblings, who then pass it on etc. The school setting is the perfect place for this virus, with it leaving the young as being asymptomatic or with limited symptoms, ensuring that they unknowingly and rapidly affect a community. This is why most other governments see it as a first point of call. That government pandemic plan is either remarkably naive or remarkably defeatist, the idea that ‘well, they won’t take any notice’ is shocking,geoffw said:
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.Black_Rook said:
Speaking as a resident of Hertfordshire - God alone knows. But it's not pleasing news, needless to say.Chameleon said:Hampshire and Hertfordshire are now the two leading growth points in the UK.
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.Time_to_Leave said:So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
Looking at Italy we will soon see one of the outcomes of such a weak lockdown; when idiots flout it and the clever ones stay at home, natural selection takes hold. No lockdown condemns the clever as well, a remarkably unfair option.0 -
I found this a few years ago. It took me a few attempts to realise you can effectively choose the order you tackle them in (via the left/right arrows). Assuming it's the same thing.Lennon said:
Getting Rhode Island first up felt slightly harsh... I mean I must have been about a pixel off.Richard_Tyndall said:For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield
Edit: it is the same, and it's still bloody hard, even after you've got all the obvious ones.1 -
Parliament to stay open0
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Disappointing. Only seems to be about Parliament, not the country.0
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I wonder if the greater cultural similarities in terms of tactile and non-tactile cultures of Britain and Germany on the one hand, and France and Italy on the other, have got something to do with these apparenly different trajectories.Chameleon said:500 cases, 15 new deaths in France.
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456 positive cases, 8 deaths.0
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All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?Malmesbury said:
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.RochdalePioneers said:
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...Malmesbury said:
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.0 -
I know. WTF!!!!!!!DavidL said:Disappointing. Only seems to be about Parliament, not the country.
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Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?0 -
Did he just announce another 2 deaths?0
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He seems to be suggesting you can only spread the virus when you have symptoms0
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Within 2m, for 15 mins or longer is the 'close contact' test.0
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Emergency Bill next week0
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Says need legislation for the plan, meetings with opposition tomorrow, bill first thing next week.
Lockdown needs powers I guess?0 -
Indeed, i've played it before and it's not screwing around.Lennon said:
Getting Rhode Island first up felt slightly harsh... I mean I must have been about a pixel off.Richard_Tyndall said:For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield0 -
Holding statement.
COBRA with Boris tomorrow is very important0 -
Well that was a nothing statement0
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This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.1 -
All the more so given that the credo of Brexit was that people didn't like being patronised by an out-of-touch elite.ukpaul said:
Because they pass it on to each other, then they take it home to their parents and siblings, who then pass it on etc. The school setting is the perfect place for this virus, with it leaving the young as bing asymptomatic or with limited symptoms, ensuring that they unknowingly and rapidly affect a community. This is why most other governments see it as a first point of call. That government pandemic plan is either remarkably naive or remarkably defeatist, the idea that ‘well, they won’t take any notice’ is shockinggeoffw said:
Well why shut the schools if children are not at severe risk if they do catch the virus? Many even seem to be asymptomatic. If the young people acquire immunity they represent an element of resistance to the spread of the disease and slow it down. The big threat of this epidemic is that it overwhelms the NHS because the old and less robust need treatment, not young people.Black_Rook said:
Speaking as a resident of Hertfordshire - God alone knows. But it's not pleasing news, needless to say.Chameleon said:Hampshire and Hertfordshire are now the two leading growth points in the UK.
I'm still of the opinion that the Government will try not to shut the schools at all - but a work colleague posited that the authorities might try to keep them going until the Easter holidays to minimise disruption to working parents.Time_to_Leave said:So, given the lack of pre-briefing, do we assume the Hancock statement will be a non-event? Change to the approach at the weekend to allow people to adapt/discuss away from work? Maybe try and get the schools to Easter?
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Waste of time. Pathetic waffle.0
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I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
Wall Street now breaking lower; they must have Parliament channel on live feed0
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The government may be following a particular pattern of expert advice in taking a relatively hands-off approach so far, but they're not explaining what that advice or strategy is. That's not going to reassure a lot of people, unfortunately ; although I expect for Dominic Cummings reassurance is a long way down the list.0
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I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.FF43 said:
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?0 -
I would have thought it would be covered by the Civil Contingencies Act, but maybe they are preferring to change the law, rather than use the provisions of that Act.FrancisUrquhart said:Says need legislation for the plan, meetings with opposition tomorrow, bill first thing next week.
Lockdown needs powers I guess?0 -
Ashworth asking decent questions.
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It is easy to say that but it does look like this is a process including , emergency legislation, and reassurance to mps and their staffIanB2 said:Well that was a nothing statement
And good response from Jonathan Ashworth0 -
We're less than 2 weeks behind Italy, that's going to be too late.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!0
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Did not a few weeks ago, took me about a dozen goes to get through it without an error!Richard_Tyndall said:For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield0 -
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.Malmesbury said:
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?Malmesbury said:
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.RochdalePioneers said:
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...Malmesbury said:
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.0 -
You can`t make folk do things in a liberal democracy without the backing of law.FrancisUrquhart said:Says need legislation for the plan, meetings with opposition tomorrow, bill first thing next week.
Lockdown needs powers I guess?0 -
That will be the WHO pandemic announcement, it is not about point scoringIanB2 said:Wall Street now breaking lower; they must have Parliament channel on live feed
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These must be terrible, finely balanced decisions.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
Brexit looks like a mere parlour game compared to this. History will be watching the actions of the key players in all this.0 -
The key is to skip the tricky ones till you have the easier ones in place then go back to them. RI is easy once NY and Mass are in placeLennon said:
Getting Rhode Island first up felt slightly harsh... I mean I must have been about a pixel off.Richard_Tyndall said:For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield0 -
Don't they want to throw money at the EU instead?HYUFD said:1 -
A bipartisan bill is a good idea. Acknowledging that his shadow was the first to raise the the SSP issue was quite classy. All very grown up if not very dramatic.1
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The suggestion of home delivery was only for those that were self isolating relatively early on. There's been no suggestion that they expect the majority of the population to switch to it instead of supermarkets.RochdalePioneers said:
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.Malmesbury said:
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?Malmesbury said:
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.RochdalePioneers said:
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...Malmesbury said:
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.0 -
I suspect the reality is this - the virus is already here and spreading. A few thousand Spanish football fans probably incurs less risk to the UK than the impacts of starting a shut down now so that its less effective when needed in a few weeks.nichomar said:Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!
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But we're also have a doubling rate in days that's greater than Italy was at this stage - principally due to the fact that we are more aware/can see what's happening there, and people are starting to do some social distancing themselves I suspect.Chameleon said:
We're less than 2 weeks behind Italy, that's going to be too late.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.1 -
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
O
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?DavidL said:
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.FF43 said:
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?0 -
William Weld has now won more delegates and votes in the Republican primary against Trump than Tulsi Gabbard has in the Democratic primary against Biden and Sanders
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-and-caucuses1 -
Will it? Or perhaps in person meetings are more effective at connecting job seekers with jobs?Alistair said:1 -
Stay the distance Tulsi!HYUFD said:William Weld has now won more delegates and votes in the Republican primary against Trump than Tulsi Gubbard has in the Democratic primary against Biden and Sanders
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-and-caucuses0 -
A lot turns on the question asked by the SNP woman: are children spreaders or not? Didn't get an answer.ukpaul said:O
It’s three and a half weeks until most schools break up. Madness if that’s what they are trying to do, given what we see elsewhere,FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
Yes, we could have an earlier, British Easter. Just the sort of flexibility Henry VIII surely had in mind when he passed his Withdrawal Bill.tlg86 said:
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.1 -
That's why I said near, and then they will just extend them continuously.tlg86 said:
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
I am rather nervous now of the strategy. I can only think that the numbers (which aren't public) are still looking ok-ish and not doing an Italy of 50% increase day on day.0 -
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Well we already have an Act to give authority to bring Easter foward if we need to, though it might need amendment.IanB2 said:
Yes, we could have an earlier, British Easter. Just the sort of flexibility Henry VIII surely had in mind when he passed his Withdrawal Bill.tlg86 said:
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Act_19280 -
Quite apart from anything else there are exams starting after Easter. You'd think it would be better to bring a shutdown forward in the hope that you can relax it to allow exams to go ahead later.tlg86 said:
I don't get playing for Easter - surely just bring forward the holidays.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think they are desperately trying to get it through to near Easter, then schools off anyway, and you can start with the off for 2 weeks, which turns to 4-6.rottenborough said:This sounds like a stalling announcement.
I know we should trust the medical experts, but I am beginning to wobble. I can't help thinking we should be in lock down now.
We have a big problem if we see a sharp increase and in a week are like Italy.0 -
It is indeed a superb header and it's a shame that probably most people didn't read it all the way through.WhisperingOracle said:Interesting header from Ms Cyclefree. Cultural complacency is a big problem in Britain, even more so when having an unwritten constitution requires you *not* to be complacent at all times.
She is right to point to the populist warning signs. Being partisan for a moment, it is clear that the risk of the illiberal horrors Cyclefree mentions are asymmetric.
There is no chance that Starmer is going to sacrifice human rights. There is a danger with Johnson, and I'd suggest there's an even higher chance under some of his potential successors, Priti Patel springs to mind.3 -
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.IanB2 said:0 -
A microbiology professor? What do they know.rottenborough said:
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I commented on that earlier, who on earth let it happen? Liverpool FC I suspect.nichomar said:Anyway all quiet on costa Blanca with health services operating as normal and no sign of panic. When asked we apparently have one patient in Torrevieja icu who is infected but has arrived to spread the 8 cases in Valencia out amongst the available facilities. Reached 27 today and higher in the sun. It is looking dire in Madrid though how on earth has the UK let athletics Madrid fans come for a football match in Liverpool? Someone is culpabl!
Madrid has been a hotspot for a few days.0 -
That's the posh term.GideonWise said:
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.Sunil_Prasannan said:Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".0 -
Aren’t there stacks of cases that show to the contrary? For example I don’t believe anyone was actually unwell in the ski chalet.rottenborough said:0 -
Could be worth a repeat once Covid fever tempers down, as it were.rkrkrk said:
It is indeed a superb header and it's a shame that I imagine most people didn't read it.WhisperingOracle said:Interesting header from Ms Cyclefree. Cultural complacency is a big problem in Britain, even more so when having an unwritten constitution requires you *not* to be complacent at all times.
She is right to point to the populist warning signs. Being partisan for a moment, it is clear that the risk of the illiberal horrors Cyclefree mentions are asymmetric. There is no chance that Starmer is going to sacrifice human rights. There is a danger with Johnson, and I'd suggest there's an even higher chance under some of his potential successors, Priti Patel springs to mind.0 -
Derriere parchment, if you please.SandyRentool said:
That's the posh term.GideonWise said:
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.Sunil_Prasannan said:Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".0 -
0
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What is Latham on about? A constituent has invented a test for the virus that works in 10 minutes. Seriously?0
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But also added “while she had symptoms”Malmesbury said:
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.IanB2 said:0 -
I`m glad I planted that bed of hostas last year.kle4 said:
Derriere parchment, if you please.SandyRentool said:
That's the posh term.GideonWise said:
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.Sunil_Prasannan said:Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".1 -
Not a joking issue no one knows what he is thinkingwilliamglenn said:What's he going to do? Nuke it?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12378202302960107520 -
Devil's Arse Wipe is my term of choice for a select band of people - including Piers Morgan....SandyRentool said:
That's the posh term.GideonWise said:
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.Sunil_Prasannan said:Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".0 -
I am very confused by this statement.IanB2 said:
But also added “while she had symptoms”Malmesbury said:
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.IanB2 said:
There are loads of papers on the pre-print medical sites that say you are infectious before showing symptoms and speculate that is why it has travelled so quickly.
Are we to take that our experts think this is flawed science?0 -
Papel hygienicaSandyRentool said:
That's the posh term.GideonWise said:
Love the way we have normalised the use of the term bog roll on pb.Sunil_Prasannan said:Certain brands of bog roll sold out, some others plentiful at Sainsbury Aberdeen. Notes saying "certain sanitary products rationed to 5 per household" and "store pharmacy no longer has any face masks or sanitiser".
Heading back to London tomorrow...
Arse wipe is my term of choice for "bathroom tissue".0 -
There is a surprising amount of "flex space" in the food home delivery system - particularly when they are straight from the warehouse. Amazon Pantry is very useful there, since it piggy backs onto the existing delivery system for... everything else.Chameleon said:
The suggestion of home delivery was only for those that were self isolating relatively early on. There's been no suggestion that they expect the majority of the population to switch to it instead of supermarkets.RochdalePioneers said:
Sure. But there is a finite capacity that can be offered. Even Ocado with its automated robot warehouses can only process so many orders. Regardless of demand, the vast majority of the population is not going to be able to switch to home delivery.Malmesbury said:
All the major home delivery outfits are offering slots Monday next week at the moment - at least for the areas I am interested in.RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed - people have been told repeatedly by this government that we have had enough of experts with their inconvenient facts. Why should people now listen to experts telling them facts when they can just do a Brexit and believe more?Malmesbury said:
The point I was trying to get across was that it is interesting how people defend their "common sense" ideas in the face of evidence.RochdalePioneers said:
I suspect this is coming. Lets see what is announced at 7pm. Either way I have bought a goodly load of food so that we're prepped for various scenarios without having to fight people off for the last pack of Quinoa...Malmesbury said:
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
Order food deliveries online - that way the shops stay full. Yes, it takes a couple of days at the moment, but it makes the most sense from the point of view of managing the supply chain.
As for food deliveries, I believe the government's "we're consulting the supermarkets" lie assumed that supermarkets could just home deliver. Yes. To the c. 7% of the population they deliver to. Want to scale it up? They don't have the drivers / trucks / stock / pick space etc etc. So its impossible, but again, down with facts...
You can also order quite a lot via Amazon.
It's almost as if, if you increase demand for a thing, people respond by trying to provide more of it.
And of course the stuff being delivered has to be made, distributed, physically handled etc etc. So "work from home" won't work if people want to keep eating.
In the case of deliveries scheduled 3-4 days into the future, this gives the supply chain a space to adapt to the order flow, and really max out.
Obviously the economy stops if everyone is at home. Note that in Italy etc it is not a shutdown of the economy - shops and restaurants are open. The idea is to reduce contact as much as is possible.0 -
As I said, I think he just wants to duck the question of the very many politicians who doubtless were with Nad before she got ill. Something they may come to regret.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am very confused by this statement.IanB2 said:
But also added “while she had symptoms”Malmesbury said:
He was saying that only those who have been within x metres for y minutes are at risk.IanB2 said:
There are loads of papers on the pre-print medical sites that say you are infectious before showing symptoms and speculate that is why it has travelled so quickly.
Are we to take that our experts think this is flawed science?0 -
I still think this might be air-conditioning borne. Yuck. Horrid virus being pumped everywhere in luscious cool air that it loves. It would explain the way it jumps. Doctors wear PPE, they shouldn't really get it.0
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I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material. I expect us to get a tariff free, free trade agreement with a lot of mutual recognition of standards which are, of course, currently identical. The way some of these things are organised will of course change as they will become bilateral rather than as a member of the club.williamglenn said:
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?DavidL said:
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.FF43 said:
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?
We have already seen significant new investment in our car industry, an acceptance of the position by Airbus, a very favourable arrangement in relation to space and some movement in relation to the City. But I really don't want to refight the whole Brexit argument yet again. As I have said we have far more important concerns which will have significant effect on our economy, our safety and even our relationship with our near neighbours.0 -
It’s an emotional response from a politician. I don’t think he appreciates the purpose of the quarantine nor what is expected afterwards.eadric said:This is so depressing. The ex Italian prime minister is right. We are wasting time. We are not learning from Italy, we are repeating their errors.
https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1237822000787271687?s=200 -
Does (s)he post here under several names?Malmesbury said:
Had an interesting conversation at work. "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc"DavidL said:
Hopefully that's coming at 7.00pm.Chris said:
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.DavidL said:
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?Chris said:
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?DavidL said:
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151)
Deaths: 827(+196)
Healed 1045 (+41)
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Pointed him at the links to the pandemic plan on the gov.uk site, mentioned earlier - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu
A couple of hours later - "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because I don't see any reason not to in those documents"
So I sent him links to the specific bits - i.e. school closure possibly being a bad idea.
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"1 -
The other, more metaphysical theory is that the more you preoccupy yourself with Coronavirus, the more you attract it to you.eadric said:Something particularly chilling about this
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1237800337588748288?s=201 -
I've invented a 5 second coronavirus test. Albeit one where test specificity and sensitivity is 50%.rottenborough said:What is Latham on about? A constituent has invented a test for the virus that works in 10 minutes. Seriously?
1 -
More accurate to say it's a hostile environment for shirkers.Alistair said:1 -
Sporcle will save a nation in lockdown.OllyT said:
Did not a few weeks ago, took me about a dozen goes to get through it without an error!Richard_Tyndall said:For anyone who has an interest in the US elections but is unsure of where all the states are. If you end up self isolating for a couple of weeks then try this. But I warn you it is kind of addictive.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/mhershfield/us-states-no-outlines-minefield
See how many goes before you can fill out the Periodic Table.....1 -
No - he has shown no signs of having a chronic case of "travel writer/airport thrilleritis".matt said:
Does (s)he post here under several names?Malmesbury said:
Had an interesting conversation at work. "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc"DavidL said:
Hopefully that's coming at 7.00pm.Chris said:
They were effective enough to make the rate of new cases drop by 99%.DavidL said:
That is the uncertainty. Chinese figures outside Wuhan seem almost too good to be true. Italy's infection rate is already nearly 4x that of China's and climbing fast. Were the Chinese steps really that effective?Chris said:
But what percentage of the cases do you think they are finding?DavidL said:
In resolved cases a death rate of 44%. Even of all found cases the rate is over 7%. This is markedly different from China.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
Currently infected 10590 (+1531) including 1,028 in intensive care (+151)
Deaths: 827(+196)
Healed 1045 (+41)
And I think things in Italy have changed too. The official numbers don't seem to be showing exponential growth. I think they're only detecting a small fraction of cases, but presumably they are detecting a certain fraction now.
Unfortunately this virus spreads relatively easily. But it doesn't spread by magic - indeed the WHO/China report shows that it doesn't spread all that often to people living in the same house or "close contacts."
If people change their behaviour the growth rate can be slowed or even put in reverse. But I think it needs more than advice to wash your hands more frequently and otherwise carry on normally!
Pointed him at the links to the pandemic plan on the gov.uk site, mentioned earlier - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu
A couple of hours later - "The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because I don't see any reason not to in those documents"
So I sent him links to the specific bits - i.e. school closure possibly being a bad idea.
A little later...
"The Government should be closing everything! Roads, schools etc. because they need to prove that they are in charge and doing something"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trw1PbQt_Yo explains it quite clearly, I feel.
0 -
Yes, but that would fit with my theory, which is more all-encompassing.eadric said:
Or that it attacks health workers and their bosses, such as the UK Health Minister, Nadine DorriesLuckyguy1983 said:
The other, more metaphysical theory is that the more you preoccupy yourself with Coronavirus, the more you attract it to you.eadric said:Something particularly chilling about this
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1237800337588748288?s=20
I still think it's more likely to be the air con. But I suppose it could be both.0 -
How is Joe Biden the best the Dems have?
Like seriously. Where is the Bill Clinton or Obama type figure? Biden can barely finish a thought, and no that isnt just his stutter0 -
Then what's the point? This is not a trivial question - posing it is what propelled Boris Johnson to Downing Street.DavidL said:
I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material.williamglenn said:
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?DavidL said:
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.FF43 said:
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?0 -
A coin toss?Chameleon said:
I've invented a 5 second coronavirus test. Albeit one where test specificity and sensitivity is 50%.rottenborough said:What is Latham on about? A constituent has invented a test for the virus that works in 10 minutes. Seriously?
0 -
Sort of on topic, Boris isn't parricularly loved in the Tory party. He doesn't have a natural base.
He was chosen because MPs were terrified of annihilation under May and he could win an election and get Brexit done.
Life gets harder for him from 2021 onwards. If he starts to seriously challenge the fundamentals of the constitution or operate a dictatorship then as it shows up in the polls and rumblings amongst the base, he will be swiftly dispatched.
I agree with David Herdson that I can't see him lasting a full Parliament.1 -
You saved me posting a similar thing, but it's possible the correct model is SIRS or SEIRS (rather than SIR or SEIR). Recovered people may become susceptible again (immunity fades or virus mutates). This seems a more plausible worst-case, rather than R0=5.Chris said:
Obviously the 80% figure is based on an estimate of the effective reproduction number of the virus, called R. The number of new cases produced by each case, in the absence of any existing immunity. Your 50% argument is the reason why it's 80%, not 100%. The fraction that will remain uninfected is 1/R. This is all very basic epidemiology modelling.rcs1000 said:
I think the 80% is probably high.DavidL said:
There was a virologist on yesterday morning. His assumption was still that about 80% of us were going to get this, maybe over as long as 4 years. It put the containment into perspective. What China and SK have done is bring the spread now to a virtual stop by aggressive action. But the virus is still there. When the containment slides it will, if that virologist is right, pick up again. In this scenario the Chinese etc are not so much flattening the curve as creating a series of humps.eadric said:
Containment only really started in Italy a day or two ago. Early days to say it has or hasn't worked.DavidL said:
I fear that they are going to be bad. The indication yesterday was that the numbers were not in fact complete, bad as they were.Chameleon said:Italy numbers today are really important, if sub 2k then it's pretty good news. If 3k+ then very bad.
This seems to be the government's assumption too. Talking of having 20% of our workforce off "at any one time" as the Chancellor did today indicates more than 6m people of working age either infected or contained to prevent spread. This is vastly bigger than anything seen in any country to date in terms of cases if not lock down. Italy currently has 168 cases per million. The government are indicating scenarios when that might be in the low hundreds of thousands.
My imagination fails me at that point. When you see what has happened in Italy at the current level of infection I cannot imagine 10 or 100 times more. I just don't believe it but it may be because I just don't want to.
Why? Because we may well have a cure (or something that severely limits the virus's infection capability, like Tamiflu does with influenza), or a vaccine.
And even if we don't get those things, there are fewer and fewer people who can catch the disease each time around. Once 50% of people have had it, it's effectively 50% less likely to spread as you need to have twice the contact to come into the same number of vulnerable people.
But yes, the humps is right. And it's the right way to deal with. It allows health services not to be overloaded. It gives us time to improve our capability to deal with the virus.
There is a meaningful economic hit. Lots of people die. But it's not an existential threat.
Apparently that 80% figure is based on an assumption that R=5, which seems extremely large. I don't know where it comes from. The estimate for R0 in the WHO-China Joint Mission report is 2-2.5. But of course even that is the _basic_ number, not the _effective_ number. That is, it's the number in the absence of any intervention to change people's natural behaviour. In China, the epidemic has been effectively stopped because the effective number was reduced to less than 1. The same seems to have been done in South Korea.
It's a matter of policy whether we try to do the same here, or whether we just go for "herd immunity" by allowing the majority of the population to contract the infection. That would "get it over with," with significant but relatively small fatality among the working-age population, but at the cost of a huge number of elderly people dying. But anyway, it seems to have been decided that we're going to do that, rather than follow the Chinese/Korean route.0 -
If you do close schools to slow/stop the outbreak when do you open them again? When there's a vaccine? When there are 0 cases? That could be weeks or months. And if you reopen before either of those dont we just start the infection curve off all over again?1
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Does this theory say anything about whether it can track you through a VPN?Luckyguy1983 said:
The other, more metaphysical theory is that the more you preoccupy yourself with Coronavirus, the more you attract it to you.eadric said:Something particularly chilling about this
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1237800337588748288?s=200 -
This is absolutely my last one on this tonight. The point was to be able to make our own decisions and hold those responsible for making those decisions to account in a democratic way. That was and is important.williamglenn said:
Then what's the point? This is not a trivial question - posing it is what propelled Boris Johnson to Downing Street.DavidL said:
I do not believe that the changes will prove to be material.williamglenn said:
You would concede that nothing substantive has happened on Brexit other than giving up our say in the EU institutions?DavidL said:
I really find it remarkable that people persist in these beliefs. But whatever.FF43 said:
Brexit isn't inconsequential to those in the automotive, financial services, food and drink, pharma, aviation, haulage and chemical industries, which adds up to a substantial chink of the UK's economy, who won't be able to trade on anything like current terms from January next year, who are deliberately kept away from anything to do with the Brexit negotiations because this government firmly believes the last people who should have any say in a trade agreement is anyone who actually trades. This isn't about them.DavidL said:
Richard Brexit is exposed for what it always was. A trivial inconsequential factor that might put a slight pressure on the tiller of the ship of state in a stormy sea combating strong currents.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's got to get through the actual implementation of Brexit first, and every indication is that the government is deliberately and perversely planning to make it as big a disaster as it possibly can, on multiple fronts simultaneously.Stark_Dawning said:
Wow. I'm actually starting to think that, despite being in government for yonks under previous leaders, Boris's Tories will enjoy the same political favour as New Labour in 1997. If so, then many more years in power will await Boris.RobD said:
Only the complete ineptitude and arrogance of our political class allowed it to paralyse us for the best part of 3 years. Now, we have far more important things to worry about. We always did of course but too few people could see it.
Brexit isn't inconsequential to the Union, which at the very least will be highly stressed by it, if not destroyed. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are firmly opposed to Brexit and this government has no intention of taking Scottish and Irish interests into account.
Brexit isn't inconsequential just because you say it is. I suspect you don't even believe it in your heart of hearts, otherwise why bother?3
This discussion has been closed.