politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s handling of the spread of coronavirus is costing him d

System · March 2020

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s handling of the spread of coronavirus is costing him dear and making the situation in the US far worse

New Quinnipiac poll:By 56-40, Biden is seen as better than Trump in a crisis.Among independents, that's 59-33 (!)Among women, that's 63-32 (!!!)The poll is simply awful for Trump. Turns out he doesn't have magical chaos-spreading powers, after all:https://t.co/gM5vA5UTJq

Read the full story here

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

IanB2 · March 2020

Second, again

IanB2 · March 2020

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2020

Then there's this.

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

Certainly going to speed up China becoming the world super power.

RobD · March 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Then there's this.

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608

We saw how quickly it spread through the Iranian (and now French) political class.

HM in her isolation suite, I hope.

GideonWise · March 2020

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

I am shocked I tell you...shocked it wasn't the dog that got paid...

https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1237071903866499072?s=20

GideonWise · March 2020

FPT:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/majority-of-retired-nhs-staff-dont-want-to-return-to-tackle-covid-19-crisis

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

Good. Lots needs to be done. Park my points and look at the NHS. Park the large scale lack of beds and capacity. Look at the support staff responsible for keeping facilities clean and disease free. As has been pointed out these staff are largely on contracts that do not pay sick pay. Which means they will be in work spreading illness if the government isn't going to step on and pay them to self-quarantine.

Benpointer · March 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

dr_spyn · March 2020

Donald the corvid.

Benpointer · March 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Then there's this.

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608

How ironic it would be...

Richard_Tyndall · March 2020

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.

The interesting question will be where that power shifts to. China looks severely wounded by this and will take time to recover. One worry for them will be if they are shown to have spread the virus into Africa which still seems to me to be an area that is horribly underreporting.

No political leadership looks to have come out of (or rather come into) this particularly well at this point.

Sandpit · March 2020

GideonWise said:
FPT:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/majority-of-retired-nhs-staff-dont-want-to-return-to-tackle-covid-19-crisis

They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.

Benpointer · March 2020

dr_spyn said:
Donald the corvid.

It's nothing to crow about.

GideonWise · March 2020

Richard_Tyndall said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.
The interesting question will be where that power shifts to. China looks severely wounded by this and will take time to recover. One worry for them will be if they are shown to have spread the virus into Africa which still seems to me to be an area that is horribly underreporting.

No political leadership looks to have come out of (or rather come into) this particularly well at this point.

I think the Chinese may have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

I am now firmly of the opinion it will be horrific whatever they do and they will be making decisions that they hope will transform 500,000 deaths to the 100,000 they are talking about.

Just as in war, lots of mistakes will be made, we just hope that ultimately we come through it and our experts have made as few as mistake as possible.

I can only imagine sitting there with their mathematical models tweaking parameters and running sims trying to find the balance that gets them the optimal number of deaths.

I used to have models and run sims as a professional gambler and that was hugely stressful, but ultimately all that was at stake was my money, not human life.

RobD · March 2020

Benpointer said:

dr_spyn said:
Donald the corvid.
It's nothing to crow about.

He's made a right tit of himself.

Anabobazina · March 2020

Richard_Tyndall said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.
The interesting question will be where that power shifts to. China looks severely wounded by this and will take time to recover. One worry for them will be if they are shown to have spread the virus into Africa which still seems to me to be an area that is horribly underreporting.

No political leadership looks to have come out of (or rather come into) this particularly well at this point.

The Japanese appear to have made by far the best fist of it of any global power, on the early evidence.

bookseller · March 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Monkeys · March 2020

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

Sandpit · March 2020

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

Well said. A lot of opposition politicians and the media still haven’t worked this out yet.

Every front page tomorrow should be cleared for the government advice, exactly as it’s written, with no editorialising or “opinion” pieces around it.

Chameleon · March 2020

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

RobD · March 2020

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

matt · March 2020

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

bookseller · March 2020

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

Or ignorance, more accurately...

Floater · March 2020

Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."

Philip_Thompson · March 2020

Couldn't be happening to a crappier President. POTWAS.

rottenborough · March 2020

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?
Or ignorance, more accurately...

Wilful ignorance.

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

Benpointer said:

dr_spyn said:
Donald the corvid.
It's nothing to crow about.

You sound chough-ed.

GideonWise · March 2020

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

That's the same figure that Foxy has been posting. I think the army might be dusting down their tents as we speak.

bookseller · March 2020

Floater said:
Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."

Similar stuff coming out of the US unfortunately.

OllyT · March 2020

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

I largely agree but do not understand why people are still flying in from Italy without any form of checking (Assuming that what issuing reported is correct). On the whole Johnson rightly seems to be being guided by the health professionals unlike the moron across the Atlantic.

dr_spyn · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

dr_spyn said:
Donald the corvid.
It's nothing to crow about.
You sound chough-ed.

Donald Jay Trump.

Big_G_NorthWales · March 2020

So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09

rottenborough · March 2020

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1237140517172936704/photo/1

IanB2 · March 2020

Also worth noting that, although the outbreaks started on the west coast with Washington state first affected, then Oregon and California, New York has been slowly climbing the table and now has the most cases of any state. London may well be heading for our top spot also.

bookseller · March 2020

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives

Sandpit · March 2020

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

There was a discussion of this on the last thread.

The more centralised systems will be better at co-ordination, but will suffer from a lack of resources. This is the UK.

The less centralised systems (Germany, Italy, USA) will find co-ordination much more difficult, with layers of bureaucracy between the ministry of health and the patient, but with potentially more ICU beds available.

UK can expect to see visible contingency measures (routine medical services postponed, military field hospitals turning up in car parks) earlier than the less centralised systems.

IanB2 · March 2020

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.
I largely agree but do not understand why people are still flying in from Italy without any form of checking (Assuming that what issuing reported is correct). On the whole Johnson rightly seems to be being guided by the health professionals unlike the moron across the Atlantic.

The quarantine doesn’t apply to foreign residents

Benpointer · March 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.
I am now firmly of the opinion it will be horrific whatever they do and they will be making decisions that they hope will transform 500,000 deaths to the 100,000 they are talking about.

Just as in war, lots of mistakes will be made, we just hope that ultimately we come through it and our experts have made as few as mistake as possible.

I can only imagine sitting there with their mathematical models tweaking parameters and running sims trying to find the balance that gets them the optimal number of deaths.

I used to have models and run sims as a professional gambler and that was hugely stressful, but ultimately all that was at stake was my money, not human life.

Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

Not an easy one to judge.

matthiasfromhamburg · March 2020

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
A different view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Fenman · March 2020

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

Boris could always demand some from Germany as belated war reparations.

Sandpit · March 2020

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?
Or ignorance, more accurately...

COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?

edmundintokyo · March 2020

Big_G_NorthWales said:
So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09

There we have it, the British government cannot be wrong, by definition.

When they finally belatedly do the things that are already working in Japan and South Korea, those things will go from being a hysterical panic reaction to being sensible commonsense things to do, in a matter of seconds.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

Floater said:
Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."

"Islamic cleric Ilyas Sharafuddin said in an audio address that “Allah unleashed Coronavirus on Chinese for persecuting Uighur Muslims”. Ilyas said that "they the Chinese have threatened the Muslims and tried to destroy lives of 20 million Muslims. Muslims were forced to drink alcohol, their mosques were destroyed and their Holy Book was burned. They thought that no one can challenge them, but Allah the most powerful punished them." "

bookseller · March 2020

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.

Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...

RobD · March 2020

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2020

Are we about to see an irony so great that it will cause the universe to collapse in on itself?

Sometime soon Mexico decides to shut the border with the United States to stop Americans fleeing to Mexico to avoid the coronavirus.

RobD · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09
There we have it, the British government cannot be wrong, by definition.

When they finally belatedly do the things that are already working in Japan and South Korea, those things will go from being a hysterical panic reaction to being sensible commonsense things to do, in a matter of seconds.

Not sure about never wrong. Certainly less wrong than a random bloke on twitter.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

Sandpit said:

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?
Or ignorance, more accurately...
COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?

With apologies to Paul Hardcastle:

C-c-c-c-covid 19

Jonathan · March 2020

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference of thousands of lives.

bookseller · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Floater said:
Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."
"Islamic cleric Ilyas Sharafuddin said in an audio address that “Allah unleashed Coronavirus on Chinese for persecuting Uighur Muslims”. Ilyas said that "they the Chinese have threatened the Muslims and tried to destroy lives of 20 million Muslims. Muslims were forced to drink alcohol, their mosques were destroyed and their Holy Book was burned. They thought that no one can challenge them, but Allah the most powerful punished them." "

Just reading Eric Hoffer's 'True Believer' (published 1957). Very sobering...

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

TheScreamingEagles said:
Are we about to see an irony so great that it will cause the universe to collapse in on itself?

Sometime soon Mexico decides to shut the border with the United States to stop Americans fleeing to Mexico to avoid the coronavirus.

Build a wall and make America pay for it?

matt · March 2020

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

Sandpit · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:
FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/
47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives

India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.

bookseller · March 2020

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.
Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

That's very good to know.

RobD · March 2020

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference of thousands of lives.

A rounding error if things go badly.

matthiasfromhamburg · March 2020

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

Philip_Thompson · March 2020

Sandpit said:

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?
Or ignorance, more accurately...
COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?

If ignorance was fatal then Trump would be long gone.

GideonWise · March 2020

Why are people buying bottled water? I can't see why the water supply might fail.

another_richard · March 2020

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Does he not know that water comes out of taps ?

welshowl · March 2020

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.
Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.
That's very good to know.

Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.

Andy_JS · March 2020

Biden is favourite in all the states voting tomorrow with BFE.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.169805382

edmundintokyo · March 2020

Benpointer said:

Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

Not an easy one to judge.

This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.

TOPPING · March 2020

RobD said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09
There we have it, the British government cannot be wrong, by definition.

When they finally belatedly do the things that are already working in Japan and South Korea, those things will go from being a hysterical panic reaction to being sensible commonsense things to do, in a matter of seconds.
Not sure about never wrong. Certainly less wrong than a random bloke on twitter.

Or PB.

Sandpit · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sandpit said:

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:
The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.
How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?
Or ignorance, more accurately...
COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?
With apologies to Paul Hardcastle:

C-c-c-c-covid 19

LOL. Yes, someone has to remake this.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=b3LdMAqUMnM

bookseller · March 2020

another_richard said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.
Does he not know that water comes out of taps ?

Quite. Apparently (and his son is friends with my son) he's a "conspiracy theorist". But quite frankly I can't see what faked moon landings and lizard people have to do with hoarding loo roll, but there you go.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.
Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...

Actually, it's "Shit just got real":

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shit just got real

TheWhiteRabbit · March 2020

Andy_JS said:
Biden is favourite in all the states voting tomorrow with BFE.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.169805382

Washington might be the closest, as it's postal votes

RobD · March 2020

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.

Chameleon · March 2020

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

It's essentially meaningless though. If it takes 4 weeks to recover (which is a generous assumption), that's about 10,000 people over the entire outbreak, potentially a rounding error.

RobD · March 2020

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09
There we have it, the British government cannot be wrong, by definition.

When they finally belatedly do the things that are already working in Japan and South Korea, those things will go from being a hysterical panic reaction to being sensible commonsense things to do, in a matter of seconds.
Not sure about never wrong. Certainly less wrong than a random bloke on twitter.
Or PB.

Forgot about that caveat, sorry!

TheScreamingEagles · March 2020

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/
47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives
India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.

Plus Indians are focussed on killing Muslims on the moment.

It's a toxic mix.

There's so much fake news in India at the moment, the cow botherers are spreading messages that say Muslims are responsible for the coronavirus because they kill/eat cows.

Big_G_NorthWales · March 2020

Trump live on Sky

He is going to be responsible for thousands of lost lives

Be gone

Mike Pence just said the risk of serious disease remains low

Idiots the pair of them

bookseller · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.
Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...
Actually, it's "Shit just got real":

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shit just got real

Bugger. I'm gonna rewatch 'Hot Fuzz'...

Reminds me of Charlie Higson who gets very angry when people quote his Fast Show character saying 'Suits You Sir". Apparently it's "Suit You Sir"...

Andy_JS · March 2020

Why everyone arriving in the UK on flights from northern Italy wasn't put in quarantine is a mystery.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/
47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives
India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.

"On 3 March 2020, the Indian government suspended the issuing of new visas and visas already issued for nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.[38] On 4 March 2020, the Minister of Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, announced compulsory screening of all international passengers arriving in India. He also said that so far, 589,000 people have been screened at airports, over one million screened at borders with Nepal and around 27,000 were currently under community surveillance.[39][40] The government shall also now start universal screening for all passengers flying into India from abroad. Earlier, only passengers coming in from China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia were checked."

matthiasfromhamburg · March 2020

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.

That's the crucial point, of course.
To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.

another_richard · March 2020

Andy_JS said:
Why everyone arriving in the UK on flights from northern Italy wasn't put in quarantine is a mystery.

Why are you surprised that UK immigration policy is a mystery ?

Big_G_NorthWales · March 2020

FCO

Returnees to UK from Italy have to self isolate for 14 days

GideonWise · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:

Benpointer said:

Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

Not an easy one to judge.
This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

There is an all or nothing mentality.

A true phased approach is appropriate. But we have got stuck at 'wash your hands'. That's a perfectly fine measure but it's necessary and not sufficient.

bookseller · March 2020

welshowl said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.
Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.
That's very good to know.
Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.

Waitrose here was out of toilet roll, split red lentils and porridge oats. What that tells you, I don't know!

matt · March 2020

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/
47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives
India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.
"On 3 March 2020, the Indian government suspended the issuing of new visas and visas already issued for nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.[38] On 4 March 2020, the Minister of Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, announced compulsory screening of all international passengers arriving in India. He also said that so far, 589,000 people have been screened at airports, over one million screened at borders with Nepal and around 27,000 were currently under community surveillance.[39][40] The government shall also now start universal screening for all passengers flying into India from abroad. Earlier, only passengers coming in from China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia were checked."

Perhaps they should focus on not encouraging genocide against Muslims. That should save a few more lives a lot more quickly.

RobD · March 2020

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.
That's the crucial point, of course.
To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.

And in this current crisis the number of extra beds is insignificant compared to the number who will need it. I'm not sure that's worth paying 3x extra for (that seems awfully large, given the size of the NHS budget!)

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

bookseller said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.
Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...
Actually, it's "Shit just got real":

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shit just got real
Bugger. I'm gonna rewatch 'Hot Fuzz'...

Reminds me of Charlie Higson who gets very angry when people quote his Fast Show character saying 'Suits You Sir". Apparently it's "Suit You Sir"...

Hott Fuzz? They pinched it from Bad Boys!

RobD · March 2020

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FCO

Returnees to UK from Italy have to self isolate for 14 days

Is that a "should" or "must".

Big_G_NorthWales · March 2020

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
FCO

Returnees to UK from Italy have to self isolate for 14 days
Is that a "should" or "must".

Must

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

Trevor Phillips doesn’t understand Islamophobia - Sayeeda Warsi

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/09/trevor-phillips-islamophobia-muslims

Sayeeda Warsi does appear to have turned into "everybody is a Islamophobe"

rottenborough · March 2020

Lansley on Newsnight talking about NHS capacity.

Give me a break. Lansley???

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

bookseller said:

welshowl said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...
Deleted
Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.
Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.
That's very good to know.
Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.
Waitrose here was out of toilet roll, split red lentils and porridge oats. What that tells you, I don't know!

Toilet roll, lentils and oats sounds like an "interesting" culinary combination...

Big_G_NorthWales · March 2020

rottenborough said:
Lansley on Newsnight talking about NHS capacity.

Give me a break. Lansley???

Trust the BBC

matthiasfromhamburg · March 2020

Chameleon said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:
https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
It's essentially meaningless though. If it takes 4 weeks to recover (which is a generous assumption), that's about 10,000 people over the entire outbreak, potentially a rounding error.

I'm struggling to follow your numbers. The "4,000" I quoted were taken from Rob's comment. The difference in ICU beds will in total numbers be much higher than 4,000, and, as I said, the existing facilities will only be a base from where to expand rapidly.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2020

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1237126549851320320

FrancisUrquhart · March 2020

GideonWise said:
Why are people buying bottled water? I can't see why the water supply might fail.

My take would be with so many people off ill, imagine the water mains burst. Normally they will out later that day to sort, but short staffed they might not get there for several days.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2020

matt said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
FPT

Sandpit said:
Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/
47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives
India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.
"On 3 March 2020, the Indian government suspended the issuing of new visas and visas already issued for nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.[38] On 4 March 2020, the Minister of Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, announced compulsory screening of all international passengers arriving in India. He also said that so far, 589,000 people have been screened at airports, over one million screened at borders with Nepal and around 27,000 were currently under community surveillance.[39][40] The government shall also now start universal screening for all passengers flying into India from abroad. Earlier, only passengers coming in from China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia were checked."
Perhaps they should focus on not encouraging genocide against Muslims. That should save a few more lives a lot more quickly.

Kerala state in southern India has a Muslim population of 25% (along with 20% Christians). No violence down there.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s handling of the spread of coronavirus is costing him d

Comments