I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.
We have allocated people to the office / DR / WFH as a contingency plan. We have not triggered the plan because guidance is it is a one way valve - once people are formally WFH they are there for the duration of the disease (to avoid cross contamination)
Even there the tweeter says "same sorts" which is subtly different from "the same people".
I've not watched either video because it is 3am and Cheltenham starts in a few hours. Is the editing unfair? Has Boris been hoist by his own petard after CCHQ was caught doing the same thing to Keir Starmer last year?
Last I checked two wrongs dont make a right. Nor are two wrongs always equal.
In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.
LOL.
Plus my personal bellwether - the L*nd*n *nd*rg**nd.
Meanwhile I am self isolating along with several thousand like minded folk this week in a distant and therefore surely safe spa town in Gloucestershire.
Just on R4 that Italian government has advised that all tourists returning from anywhere in Italy should self-isolate in their home country for two weeks.
Barnesian?
Which would seem sensible.
I note Hancock was asked directly about this yesterday, and completely avoided (or completely missed the point of) the question with some crap about temperature testing not being diagnostic...
Will Austria allow Barnesian across the border to catch his flight in Innsbruck? If I were Barnesian I would have fleed Italy by now and spent the last few days of my skiing holiday in Austria. Maybe he has.
He's close enough to get across on skis, although his suitcases might have to be left behind.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
We have allocated people to the office / DR / WFH as a contingency plan. We have not triggered the plan because guidance is it is a one way valve - once people are formally WFH they are there for the duration of the disease (to avoid cross contamination)
Basically every government in the world: Shall we try doing what that one country that's not like the others is doing, since it's not all that costly or disruptive? Nah, let's just wash our hands and see how things go.
Indeed.
And let's gather 1/4 million people together at a race course just because we're a bit frightened to cancel it.
Utter and absolute insanity.
Bit of your usual grandstanding , it is four days and roughly 50K a day so not quite the way you put it as 1/4 million.
And as the Chief Medical Officer said yesterday it makes little difference for transmission if there's people outside in a 70,000 seater stadium or inside in a pub or church, if they're not isolating they would spread it to a comparable number of people either way.
Yes, any behind-closed-doors sporting event needs to go on free-to-air TV, otherwise everyone just congregates in pubs or bookies to watch.
There is a difference though. People go to their local pub to watch football rather than travel from Bradford to Liverpool to watch it live (and that's a "Home supporter"). The spread throughout the country, from hotspot to hotspot, would be significantly slower.
And there's a massive international element to something like Cheltenham which means thousands of those in attendance have been through airports, in close proximity in planes etc which I suspect means that the "average" of maybe 1 infected person is probably not meaningful. I think it is a mistake but hopefully not too an expensive one.
But if we are really going to slow things down we are going to need to do more than wash our hands of the problem.
I've just told my daughter (who lives in Sydney) to stop fighting over toilet rolls. It looks embarrassing. My granny used squares of the Daily Express in her outside toilet (the only one she ever had).
Is it a sign of modernity to panic about everything? No matter how trivial. If you're under sixty and fit, it's not any sort of Armageddon.
I have promised myself I am not going to do this again today but this really is silly. It's not about how ill you are going to get, its about whether you facilitate the spread to those who are seriously at risk, specifically older/sicker members of your own family. We need to slow down the spread. It really is that simple.
In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.
Some of these may be cargo-only flights, or flying empty thanks to EU rules on slot allocations (use it or lose it basis). There could also be foreigners evacuating Italy on board, who are happy to be quarantined at their destination.
I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.
Good. Lots needs to be done. Park my points and look at the NHS. Park the large scale lack of beds and capacity. Look at the support staff responsible for keeping facilities clean and disease free. As has been pointed out these staff are largely on contracts that do not pay sick pay. Which means they will be in work spreading illness if the government isn't going to step on and pay them to self-quarantine.
The government did that a week ago. SSP now available from day 1 not day 4.
Basically every government in the world: Shall we try doing what that one country that's not like the others is doing, since it's not all that costly or disruptive? Nah, let's just wash our hands and see how things go.
Indeed.
And let's gather 1/4 million people together at a race course just because we're a bit frightened to cancel it.
Utter and absolute insanity.
Bit of your usual grandstanding , it is four days and roughly 50K a day so not quite the way you put it as 1/4 million.
And as the Chief Medical Officer said yesterday it makes little difference for transmission if there's people outside in a 70,000 seater stadium or inside in a pub or church, if they're not isolating they would spread it to a comparable number of people either way.
Yes, any behind-closed-doors sporting event needs to go on free-to-air TV, otherwise everyone just congregates in pubs or bookies to watch.
There is a difference though. People go to their local pub to watch football rather than travel from Bradford to Liverpool to watch it live (and that's a "Home supporter"). The spread throughout the country, from hotspot to hotspot, would be significantly slower.
And there's a massive international element to something like Cheltenham which means thousands of those in attendance have been through airports, in close proximity in planes etc which I suspect means that the "average" of maybe 1 infected person is probably not meaningful. I think it is a mistake but hopefully not too an expensive one.
But if we are really going to slow things down we are going to need to do more than wash our hands of the problem.
Cheltenham is mostly British and Irish people
Plus even Coronavirus will surely not be resistant to the likely 100% alcohol environment there.
I haven’t been following closely but reports on what Italy are actually doing to combat this are very confusing. It sounds as if they are implementing grandiose measures (“self isolating the country”) cancelling football matches, closing schools) which may actually be doing very little to control it. Maybe this is what was meant by UK “govt sources” saying that Italy are pursuing “populist” measures (and very important to distinguish populist from “popular”) here, but not actually following the science or evidence on what is important.
Travel is only for necessary and verifiable work purposes. Cafes, restaurants and bars have to shut at 6pm and before then you should keep a 1m distance from other customers. All corona positive people must self quarrantine.
These and the measures you mentioned will have a noticeable effect on delaying the spread assuming they are actually practised. In Italy the hospitals are overrun. The more emergency cases that are pushed into the future the less deaths there will be.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
US a media lost the plot a long time ago, and the UK media are going down the same path.
Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
Probably because Trump is quite obviously not a Christian ?
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Just on R4 that Italian government has advised that all tourists returning from anywhere in Italy should self-isolate in their home country for two weeks.
Barnesian?
Which would seem sensible.
I note Hancock was asked directly about this yesterday, and completely avoided (or completely missed the point of) the question with some crap about temperature testing not being diagnostic...
Will Austria allow Barnesian across the border to catch his flight in Innsbruck? If I were Barnesian I would have fleed Italy by now and spent the last few days of my skiing holiday in Austria. Maybe he has.
From the Guardian: "“Austrian travellers are urgently advised to return to Austria,” the foreign ministry said on its website on Tuesday [Today]. So at the moment it looks like it should be possible.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
Yeah we don't know exactly what it will be. But with even a fraction of 6bn quid we could cover quite a few bases and be more ready next time. We knew that SARS and MERS were coronaviruses.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
Quite. As there are about 2 billion Christians in the world you can safely conclude that between them they do a bit more than earnestly bow their heads; just as Parliament manages to do a little more than begin each day with prayers.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
Basically every government in the world: Shall we try doing what that one country that's not like the others is doing, since it's not all that costly or disruptive? Nah, let's just wash our hands and see how things go.
Indeed.
And let's gather 1/4 million people together at a race course just because we're a bit frightened to cancel it.
Utter and absolute insanity.
Bit of your usual grandstanding , it is four days and roughly 50K a day so not quite the way you put it as 1/4 million.
And as the Chief Medical Officer said yesterday it makes little difference for transmission if there's people outside in a 70,000 seater stadium or inside in a pub or church, if they're not isolating they would spread it to a comparable number of people either way.
You're supposed to close the pub as well...
PS I don't know but I'd have thought the contact tracing would be way easier with the pub or church.
Close the pubs?! Impossible! An outrageous suggestion.
We need to know how many people have died from coronavirus who didn't have any serious underlying medical conditions. So far none in the UK according to reports.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, the govt should instead spend much more money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
How do you develop a vaccine for a pandemic virus that doesn’t yet exist? Also, I doubt the Government are operating “on the hoof”. The plans they are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades. That is why we are lucky that we have a Government prepared to listen and follow those plans, rather than try and substitute their own ideas. The politicians job in these circumstances is in many ways to help sell the actions that are (or aren’t as not deemed currently necessary) being taken. And not undermine them - see America.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Oh hondootedly. Just that there is a variety of standards.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
It shouldn't require the benefit of hindsight to realise that the 2005 effort to develop a SARS vaccine (alongside other SARS research) should not have been defunded by governments just because the outbreak was contained.
We had two coronavirus transmissions (SARS & MERS) from other species that we got away with, and all responsible scientists were warning it was only a matter of time...
I've just told my daughter (who lives in Sydney) to stop fighting over toilet rolls. It looks embarrassing. My granny used squares of the Daily Express in her outside toilet (the only one she ever had).
Is it a sign of modernity to panic about everything? No matter how trivial. If you're under sixty and fit, it's not any sort of Armageddon.
It is a sign of modernity to spread the panic of a few quickly around the world via social media, causing an exponential infection rate of panic.
I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.
This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'. Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions. And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.
That's the crucial point, of course. To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.
In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.
Some of these may be cargo-only flights, or flying empty thanks to EU rules on slot allocations (use it or lose it basis). There could also be foreigners evacuating Italy on board, who are happy to be quarantined at their destination.
Quite a few are Easyjet and Ryanair. Of course they may not be very full but the time to treat such arrivals with mandatory confinement for 14 days has surely arrived.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
It shouldn't require the benefit of hindsight to realise that the 2005 effort to develop a SARS vaccine (alongside other SARS research) should not have been defunded by governments just because the outbreak was contained.
We had two coronavirus transmissions (SARS & MERS) from other species that we got away with, and all responsible scientists were warning it was only a matter of time...
Except its not scientifically possible to do a coronavirus vaccine that halts all coronavirus any more than its possible to do an influenza vaccine or common cold vaccine that does all of them.
Every strain needs its own vaccine developing, which needs rigorous testing.
I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.
On an individual level it is important that both you and your brother start taking this very seriously indeed. Self isolation for your brother would be the bare minimum. You might want to consider it yourself too.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, the govt should instead spend much more money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
How do you develop a vaccine for a pandemic virus that doesn’t yet exist? Also, I doubt the Government are operating “on the hoof”. The plans they are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades. That is why we are lucky that we have a Government prepared to listen and follow those plans, rather than try and substitute their own ideas. The politicians job in these circumstances is in many ways to help sell the actions that are (or aren’t as not deemed currently necessary) being taken. And not undermine them - see America.
Sorry, obviously my post wasn't clear. I meant do more research into related viruses and then we are ready when a new type comes up.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Oh hondootedly. Just that there is a variety of standards.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
I wasnt disagreeing with the premise that people mock christianity in a way they would not with other faiths for example, I think it's true. I just dont get an attack of the vapours about it. Much as I respect people practicing their faith there are those who act like its the end of the world if that faith is mocked, and I happen to think faith, including the Christian faith which has been tested over thousands of years, is tougher than that.
So I'm quite content with how it reads, thank you. People are too sensitive about faith, and too insecure about its ability to endure mockery.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Oh hondootedly. Just that there is a variety of standards.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
I wasnt disagreeing with the premise that people mock christianity in a way they would not with other faiths for example, I think it's true. I just dont get an attack of the vapours about it. Much as I respect people practicing their faith there are those who act like its the end of the world if that faith is mocked, and I happen to think faith, including the Christian faith which has been tested over thousands of years, is tougher than that.
So I'm quite content with how it reads, thank you. People are too sensitive about faith, and too insecure about its ability to endure mockery.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
It shouldn't require the benefit of hindsight to realise that the 2005 effort to develop a SARS vaccine (alongside other SARS research) should not have been defunded by governments just because the outbreak was contained.
We had two coronavirus transmissions (SARS & MERS) from other species that we got away with, and all responsible scientists were warning it was only a matter of time...
I agree with you, but... Each vaccine has to be developed for each virus, so it will be impossible to have a vaccine for a new virus ready to mass produce on demand. Of course the background research and having the infrastructure ready to cope with a new viral outbreak should not have been cut back.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
If you unpacked that graph with a normal Y axis, I reckon it would show something a bit different. There’s an underlying assumption that we will track the same exponential path, and the graph has been designed to make that point.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
If it was funny, why not?
And even if it wasnt funny if someone found it funny thats their right. Itd be a bit dickish to do it to someone's face but plenty of scope to mock non religious meeting techniques. I was at one when they got everyone to do a jumping jack to get the blood flowing.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, the govt should instead spend much more money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
How do you develop a vaccine for a pandemic virus that doesn’t yet exist? Also, I doubt the Government are operating “on the hoof”. The plans they are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades. That is why we are lucky that we have a Government prepared to listen and follow those plans, rather than try and substitute their own ideas. The politicians job in these circumstances is in many ways to help sell the actions that are (or aren’t as not deemed currently necessary) being taken. And not undermine them - see America.
Sorry, obviously my post wasn't clear. I meant do more research into related viruses and then we are ready when a new type comes up.
As Alex says, the Govt "are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades".
That will be the result of research -- research into epidemiology, mathematical modelling of spreads of diseases, simulations of the economic effect of different measures, and so on.
We are ready. It is not realistic to be able to escape the emergence of a new virus with zero deaths, or to have a vaccine ready almost immediately, but it is realistic to be prepared, and to understand the effects of different measures, and to have simulation codes ready to run for different scenarios, and to implement policy based on that evidence.
And, as far as I can see, that is what has been done & is being done.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
If it was funny, why not?
I haven't seen any mockery of Presidential prayer sessions that is (or tries to be) funny. More just about how terrible it is. There are plenty of things to criticise Trump and his inner circle for. I don't think this is one of them.
I've just told my daughter (who lives in Sydney) to stop fighting over toilet rolls. It looks embarrassing. My granny used squares of the Daily Express in her outside toilet (the only one she ever had).
Is it a sign of modernity to panic about everything? No matter how trivial. If you're under sixty and fit, it's not any sort of Armageddon.
It is a sign of modernity to spread the panic of a few quickly around the world via social media, causing an exponential infection rate of panic.
Not Armageddon, but quite possibly the worst real threat for a very long time. Certainly since AIDS, maybe since World War 2. We have been a blessed run of generations, a run that in the grand scheme of things is likely to continue.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, we could instead spend money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
Except that's scientifically impossible. We don't know what the "next" pandemic is going to be which is why its the next one. It'd take more than £6 billion to develop a TARDIS required to make your plan work.
It shouldn't require the benefit of hindsight to realise that the 2005 effort to develop a SARS vaccine (alongside other SARS research) should not have been defunded by governments just because the outbreak was contained.
We had two coronavirus transmissions (SARS & MERS) from other species that we got away with, and all responsible scientists were warning it was only a matter of time...
I agree with you, but... Each vaccine has to be developed for each virus, so it will be impossible to have a vaccine for a new virus ready to mass produce on demand. Of course the background research and having the infrastructure ready to cope with a new viral outbreak should not have been cut back.
I'm well aware of the particular vaccine point. But we do not even have a reliable animal model, fifteen years later !
I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.
On an individual level it is important that both you and your brother start taking this very seriously indeed. Self isolation for your brother would be the bare minimum. You might want to consider it yourself too.
I Agree. People with COPD are high risk, and people over 68 are also high risk. If I were your brother I would be taking much more strict measures that I am at the moment.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
Quite. As there are about 2 billion Christians in the world you can safely conclude that between them they do a bit more than earnestly bow their heads; just as Parliament manages to do a little more than begin each day with prayers.
Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.
So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.
which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.
I think they have limited incentive to respond until they know there is a big market for sales. That's obviously not ideal from a societal perspective.
My view would be that rather than blowing billions on defence toys we don't need and which don't keep us safe, the govt should instead spend much more money researching the next pandemic.
As a bonus, if we already had a vaccine for coronavirus we could probably now make our money back by licensing it cheaply to the rest of the world.
As a silly back of the envelope comparison, 2 aircraft carriers cost 6 billion quid, plus 600m in an operating costs. The medical research council spends around 800m a year on research. Let's nearly double their budget and be more prepared next time.
How do you develop a vaccine for a pandemic virus that doesn’t yet exist? Also, I doubt the Government are operating “on the hoof”. The plans they are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades. That is why we are lucky that we have a Government prepared to listen and follow those plans, rather than try and substitute their own ideas. The politicians job in these circumstances is in many ways to help sell the actions that are (or aren’t as not deemed currently necessary) being taken. And not undermine them - see America.
There is also the question of bulk manufacturing capacity for vaccines. It is very expensive to maintain unused, and when you do need it, very difficult to build out quickly.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
US a media lost the plot a long time ago, and the UK media are going down the same path.
Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.
My personal annoyance is how they breathlessly seek out and report on (usually retired) “experts” criticising “the Government’s” approach. Implying that the Govt is just Boris and co sitting in a room making it up, fight to keep “the experts” out of the process.
It’s something that’s fine during eg. an election but completely inappropriate in current situation.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Oh hondootedly. Just that there is a variety of standards.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
I wasnt disagreeing with the premise that people mock christianity in a way they would not with other faiths for example, I think it's true. I just dont get an attack of the vapours about it. Much as I respect people practicing their faith there are those who act like its the end of the world if that faith is mocked, and I happen to think faith, including the Christian faith which has been tested over thousands of years, is tougher than that.
So I'm quite content with how it reads, thank you. People are too sensitive about faith, and too insecure about its ability to endure mockery.
When Tulsi Gabbard becomes president and starts meetings with Hindu prayers we'll have a chance to see if anyone mocks her
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.
Laying Trump for Rep nominee is a low risk lay. I mentioned this two weeks ago - worth repeating I think.
Is it? How do you figure?
Value at the odds I think. I`ve layed him at 1.08 and 1.09. He may choose not to run (if he thinks he won`t win), he may develop health problems (virus or other).
I think it’s actuarial only. I can’t see him not running.
Except its not scientifically possible to do a coronavirus vaccine that halts all coronavirus any more than its possible to do an influenza vaccine or common cold vaccine that does all of them.
Every strain needs its own vaccine developing, which needs rigorous testing.
I'm not a scientist, but I don't think that is known or even accepted by scientists.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.
I disagree. Bad arguments should be confronted.
I 100% agree. Which is why I agree with scientists and not the deluded who think closing schools is evidence based. Hint: It's not!
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.
At this stage very few, if any, are infected. That is precisely the point.
If you delay such measures until the escalating number of cases make it inevitable, then what you say applies many times over. A concerted effort to stop this thing in its tracks now - given that government itself seems to accept such escalation is inevitable - would be every bit as, almost certainly more effective.
And the Easter holiday starts shortly, so a two week break starting next week would become a four week break.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.
I disagree. Bad arguments should be confronted.
Even if the original "appartchik" does not change his view, the other listeners/readers will be able to weigh up the issues.
Just on R4 that Italian government has advised that all tourists returning from anywhere in Italy should self-isolate in their home country for two weeks.
Barnesian?
Which would seem sensible.
I note Hancock was asked directly about this yesterday, and completely avoided (or completely missed the point of) the question with some crap about temperature testing not being diagnostic...
Will Austria allow Barnesian across the border to catch his flight in Innsbruck? If I were Barnesian I would have fleed Italy by now and spent the last few days of my skiing holiday in Austria. Maybe he has.
He's close enough to get across on skis, although his suitcases might have to be left behind.
In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.
Some of these may be cargo-only flights, or flying empty thanks to EU rules on slot allocations (use it or lose it basis). There could also be foreigners evacuating Italy on board, who are happy to be quarantined at their destination.
Quite a few are Easyjet and Ryanair. Of course they may not be very full but the time to treat such arrivals with mandatory confinement for 14 days has surely arrived.
Yes, I’d now be quarantining arrivals from northern Italy in the same way as those from China.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.
I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.
which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy
No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.
This has annoyed me more than anything else this week. All PBers will know that I am no fan of Boris; yet he was quite reasoned and measured in the Phil and Holly interview (I made a point to watch the whole thing). Sending this clip around out of context is social media at its absolute worst.
Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die
Why do people keep on mocking this point?
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.
Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.
Christianity has survived worse than gentle mockery, fair or otherwise, I'm sure it will manage.
Oh hondootedly. Just that there is a variety of standards.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
I wasnt disagreeing with the premise that people mock christianity in a way they would not with other faiths for example, I think it's true. I just dont get an attack of the vapours about it. Much as I respect people practicing their faith there are those who act like its the end of the world if that faith is mocked, and I happen to think faith, including the Christian faith which has been tested over thousands of years, is tougher than that.
So I'm quite content with how it reads, thank you. People are too sensitive about faith, and too insecure about its ability to endure mockery.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.
It really isn't if they end up infecting each other in the playground and then bring the virus home to their families. From what we know they may well do so even if they are asymptomatic themselves.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.
I disagree. Bad arguments should be confronted.
I 100% agree. Which is why I agree with scientists and not the deluded who think closing schools is evidence based. Hint: It's not!
And I note you didn't even address the first two points I made. Which were direct replies to your original question.
Just on R4 that Italian government has advised that all tourists returning from anywhere in Italy should self-isolate in their home country for two weeks.
Barnesian?
Which would seem sensible.
I note Hancock was asked directly about this yesterday, and completely avoided (or completely missed the point of) the question with some crap about temperature testing not being diagnostic...
Will Austria allow Barnesian across the border to catch his flight in Innsbruck? If I were Barnesian I would have fleed Italy by now and spent the last few days of my skiing holiday in Austria. Maybe he has.
He's close enough to get across on skis, although his suitcases might have to be left behind.
Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.
So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.
I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.
As Alex says, the Govt "are implementing will have been developed and refined over many decades".
That will be the result of research -- research into epidemiology, mathematical modelling of spreads of diseases, simulations of the economic effect of different measures, and so on.
We are ready. It is not realistic to be able to escape the emergence of a new virus with zero deaths, or to have a vaccine ready almost immediately, but it is realistic to be prepared, and to understand the effects of different measures, and to have simulation codes ready to run for different scenarios, and to implement policy based on that evidence.
And, as far as I can see, that is what has been done & is being done.
I have confidence in the UK public health system. But we could have been more prepared if we'd been funding research into coronaviruses properly and not abandoned it when it was contained previously. 3 novel coronaviruses in 18 years I think.
The same thing is happening with Zika. Johnson and Johnson have a potential vaccine, but they've stopped testing because the outbreak is slowing and there may not be much of a market by the time it's ready.
It seems obvious to me that we want that research to continue, the incentives are wrong and we need to somehow reform the system. Public money for public goods.
As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately. But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.
Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.
Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate.... Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.
It is not as clear cut as you make out. Most school children are not at school for 24 hours a day, and if the grandparents live nearby, the children will meet their grandparents regularly anyway. The commuting aspect of day time at school and night time with the family spreads the virus more quickly than day and night with the family.
Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.
Comments
We have allocated people to the office / DR / WFH as a contingency plan. We have not triggered the plan because guidance is it is a one way valve - once people are formally WFH they are there for the duration of the disease (to avoid cross contamination)
FPT @Luckyguy1983
Doctors can prescribe any approved drug on an “off label” basis (ie for a non approved indication) that they like
Plus my personal bellwether - the L*nd*n *nd*rg**nd.
Meanwhile I am self isolating along with several thousand like minded folk this week in a distant and therefore surely safe spa town in Gloucestershire.
It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.
That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing
What did @Foxy say, 60%? Pah!
These and the measures you mentioned will have a noticeable effect on delaying the spread assuming they are actually practised. In Italy the hospitals are overrun. The more emergency cases that are pushed into the future the less deaths there will be.
"We asked people whose job it is to negotiate a fee for someone's services and were shocked when they came back with a high initial fee".
Stop the presses.
Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.
And fighting over toilet rolls counts as a measured response?
We will have 1000 cases by the weekend.
https://twitter.com/markjhandley/status/1237144386569416712?s=21
https://twitter.com/Imm_Judges_NAIJ/status/1237153046666362881
https://twitter.com/Imm_Judges_NAIJ/status/1237153306037944320
WTF?
So at the moment it looks like it should be possible.
"“Had we not set the SARS-vaccine-research program aside, we would have had a lot more of this foundational work that we could apply to this new, closely related virus, ”
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.
Substitute "people who like pineapple on pizza" for Christians in a whole range of situations and see how that reads.
We had two coronavirus transmissions (SARS & MERS) from other species that we got away with, and all responsible scientists were warning it was only a matter of time...
I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.
U.K. 9.6%
Germany 11.7%
*ministers*...
Every strain needs its own vaccine developing, which needs rigorous testing.
So I'm quite content with how it reads, thank you. People are too sensitive about faith, and too insecure about its ability to endure mockery.
It may be Armageddon, but it's not the end of the world.
Sorry, I couldn't resist that.
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.
One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.
That will be the result of research -- research into epidemiology, mathematical modelling of spreads of diseases, simulations of the economic effect of different measures, and so on.
We are ready. It is not realistic to be able to escape the emergence of a new virus with zero deaths, or to have a vaccine ready almost immediately, but it is realistic to be prepared, and to understand the effects of different measures, and to have simulation codes ready to run for different scenarios, and to implement policy based on that evidence.
And, as far as I can see, that is what has been done & is being done.
But we do not even have a reliable animal model, fifteen years later !
It is very expensive to maintain unused, and when you do need it, very difficult to build out quickly.
It’s something that’s fine during eg. an election but completely inappropriate in current situation.
I’d only lay him at 1.05 or 1.06 or beneath.
E.g.
https://www.livescience.com/universal-flu-vaccine-closer.html
https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/03/02/senator-markey-introduces-legislation-to-invest-1-billion-in-universal-coronavirus-vaccine/
That is precisely the point.
If you delay such measures until the escalating number of cases make it inevitable, then what you say applies many times over. A concerted effort to stop this thing in its tracks now - given that government itself seems to accept such escalation is inevitable - would be every bit as, almost certainly more effective.
And the Easter holiday starts shortly, so a two week break starting next week would become a four week break.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237245644848300032?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237194323453571072?s=20
Which were direct replies to your original question.
The same thing is happening with Zika. Johnson and Johnson have a potential vaccine, but they've stopped testing because the outbreak is slowing and there may not be much of a market by the time it's ready.
It seems obvious to me that we want that research to continue, the incentives are wrong and we need to somehow reform the system. Public money for public goods.
Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.