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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Endillion said:

    On topic, for the first time I've started thinking that maybe Trump won't run for another term. Psychologically he's a weird case and I don't know what the impact of people around him dying would be, but that combined with terrible polling might give him pause?

    Trump has nearly all the GOP delegates, so he can effectively hand-pick his successor, and make sure it's someone he can rely on to shut down any investigations into his crimes, and if necessary pardon him. He's got until the end of August.

    Who do we think he'd choose?

    Bloomberg. Obviously.

    In all seriousness, it's surely Pence's if he wants it, under those circumstances?
    Haley.
    I think she’s worth a pint at 400. Most likely to be a contender next time though.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

    Certainly going to speed up China becoming the world super power.
    It was China who started it in the first place!
    That is such a child like comment. You started it first !!!!!!
    No, it is a factual comment, China started it by allowing open live animal meat markets and experiments on bats
    Nobody disputes that but it is a childish argument
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    Just looked - honestly looked like nothing much to me.

    Looks pretty bad to me, I had assumed you were making a joke about how it would be proven.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    Just looked - honestly looked like nothing much to me.

    I guess we can wait for the independent commissioner to report.

    Let's see if they agree with the two Jolly Englishman, eadric & Benpointer.

    The famously partial BBC seem to have given up hope,

    "Marler could be in for a long lay-off, with four levels of punishment length under World Rugby rules. The shortest ban for "grabbing, twisting or squeezing the genitals" is 12 weeks, with a top-end level of 24 weeks or more, up to a maximum of 208."

    208 weeks sounds right to me, that is 4 years (or a BBC typo).
    The score will always be England 33 - Wales 30 :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dear Daily Telegraph,

    Don’t run with “Why Britain Could Be Weeks Away From Italian-Style Lockdown” on your front page.

    Right now, you need to understand that your role is to inform and calm the public, not to generate clicks and hysteria.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-britain-will-need-do-avoid-lockdown-fate-italy/

    We are now at the same level of coronavirus cases Italy was less than a month ago
    A fortnight behind Italy, in terms of numbers, but the future is not yet written, it depends on our actions today and this week if we go down the same route, or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Isn't Trump meant to be a germophobe? A viral outbreak is probably his worst nightmare then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dear Daily Telegraph,

    Don’t run with “Why Britain Could Be Weeks Away From Italian-Style Lockdown” on your front page.

    Right now, you need to understand that your role is to inform and calm the public, not to generate clicks and hysteria.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-britain-will-need-do-avoid-lockdown-fate-italy/

    We are now at the same level of coronavirus cases Italy was less than a month ago
    A fortnight behind Italy, in terms of numbers, but the future is not yet written, it depends on our actions today and this week if we go down the same route, or not.
    I think Wednesday is the big day. They are going to make another set of announcements. I am sure they are weighing up how hard to go.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:


    Mayhap. If he wants presidential pardon to be a thing, he needs his successor to be able to win. Which immediately rules out all his family members, which presumably he knows.

    How would he know? Who's going to tell him?
    If your point is that no-one dares tell Trump anything he doesn't already think is true, then I wholeheartedly agree.

    My guess is that he's pretty comfortable with the idea that becoming President was due entirely to his own brilliance, and not a trick that anyone else could just replicate: not even his own daughter, and certainly not his son-in-law who doesn't share his blood and only has a job because Trump gave him one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Monkeys said:
    This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
    I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
    Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
    And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
    Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
    It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
    As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.
    That's the crucial point, of course.
    To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.
    And in this current crisis the number of extra beds is insignificant compared to the number who will need it. I'm not sure that's worth paying 3x extra for (that seems awfully large, given the size of the NHS budget!)
    I guess we will see how prudent that investment was.
    Germany really spends 30% of GDP on health?
    No, a bit above 20%, I seem to recall.
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true

    More like 11.5%.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    kle4 said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    Just looked - honestly looked like nothing much to me.

    Looks pretty bad to me, I had assumed you were making a joke about how it would be proven.
    I confess the video had passed me by.

    He'll be banned of course - I guess he'll just retire (again).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

    Certainly going to speed up China becoming the world super power.
    It was China who started it in the first place!
    That is such a child like comment. You started it first !!!!!!
    No, it is a factual comment, China started it by allowing open live animal meat markets and experiments on bats
    Nobody disputes that but it is a childish argument
    MERS started in the Gulf, Ebola and HIV in Africa, but before we get too smug, we caused BSE.

    I am as keen to regulate the wildlife trade, and animal husbandry as anyone, but it is asinine to point the finger over other countries new viruses.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    Proving yet again you know fuck all about rugby.
    I played in my school's first XV. Grabbing testicles was de rigueur
    And people thump each other a lot playing Rugby too, it's still wrong and gets punished even if the guy on the receiving end is not that hurt (well, I do recall a rather hilarioud aussie rugby league example where a guy was absolutely clocked but the refs for some reason said the penalty was going against him), grabbing genitals is not being a cheekly little scamp.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kle4 said:

    Isn't Trump meant to be a germophobe? A viral outbreak is probably his worst nightmare then.

    Yep. Although in his head it probably proves he was right all along that microbes are everywhere and out to get him.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Monkeys said:
    This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
    I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
    Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
    And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
    Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
    It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
    As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.
    That's the crucial point, of course.
    To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.
    And in this current crisis the number of extra beds is insignificant compared to the number who will need it. I'm not sure that's worth paying 3x extra for (that seems awfully large, given the size of the NHS budget!)
    I guess we will see how prudent that investment was.
    Germany really spends 30% of GDP on health?
    No, a bit above 20%, I seem to recall.
    ONS suggests it's 11%, compared to 10% in the UK.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
    I'm unsure what metrics have been used there. I would be somewhat astonished if it were possible to deliver more than 4 times as many hospital beds for basically the same money.
    I thought the same but everywhere I look for information the numbers come up basically the same with the UK spending 10% of GDP and Germany and France spending 11%. In all cases this is taking into account private provision and insurance based systems as well as public provision.

    It does seem that, all joking apart, you do seem to have a far more efficient health care system in Germany compared to the UK.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    Proving yet again you know fuck all about rugby.
    I played in my school's first XV. Grabbing testicles was de rigueur
    But did you ever do it while playing rugby?
    What happens in the locker room, stays in the locker room.

    *ahem*
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    Proving yet again you know fuck all about rugby.
    I played in my school's first XV. Grabbing testicles was de rigueur
    When I was school, I played prop and the kid who also played prop loved nothing more than a cheeky smack on the back of the head when going down for a scrum or grabby grabby of the opposing players in close quarters, but always did it in a way that when they reacted the first face they saw was me....

    The amount of fighting I had to do and the best bit was mr testicle grabber was about 10x harder than me and could easily have duffed them up, but thought it was highly amusing to watch me have to do the rough and tumble for a while before he piled in.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Jonathan said:
    We are seeing a huge amount of Darwin Award contenders this season
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Andy_JS said:
    Everyone knows that if you get shot or stabbed, you pour whisky into the wound and then you're good to go. You don't see Liam Neeson getting a bottle of tea tree soap out if he's had to go 10 rounds with some hell crazed Albanian traffickers do you?
    That’s apparently true(ish). If you have no antiseptic to clean the wound, whisky is better than nothing,
    But not much - to be effective alcohol needs to be about 80% - whisky (Gin, vodka) is generally 40%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited March 2020

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dear Daily Telegraph,

    Don’t run with “Why Britain Could Be Weeks Away From Italian-Style Lockdown” on your front page.

    Right now, you need to understand that your role is to inform and calm the public, not to generate clicks and hysteria.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-britain-will-need-do-avoid-lockdown-fate-italy/

    We are now at the same level of coronavirus cases Italy was less than a month ago
    A fortnight behind Italy, in terms of numbers, but the future is not yet written, it depends on our actions today and this week if we go down the same route, or not.
    I think Wednesday is the big day. They are going to make another set of announcements. I am sure they are weighing up how hard to go.
    It was pissing down with rain, but a full crowd tonight at the KingPower*, but I think that will be our final match with spectators this season.

    * the Villa fans left early for some reason. Maybe it was past their bedtime.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    There is, but a Welsh player was tweaking his nipple at the same time, which surely should come under the same bracket?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Monkeys said:
    This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
    I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
    Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
    And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
    Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
    Sensible measures can spread out the outbreak. Look at South Korea or Japan. They've implemented measures - that while painful - dramatically slow the infection rate.

    And that means that having 2-3x the number of beds might make a big difference.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    It was barely sillier than trying to assign any other modern national label onto an ancient tribeswoman from 2000 years ago and getting stroppy about it, I'd be wary of getting up on a high horse about nationalistic chips on the shoulder.

    Pleasant covid free dreams to all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dear Daily Telegraph,

    Don’t run with “Why Britain Could Be Weeks Away From Italian-Style Lockdown” on your front page.

    Right now, you need to understand that your role is to inform and calm the public, not to generate clicks and hysteria.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-britain-will-need-do-avoid-lockdown-fate-italy/

    We are now at the same level of coronavirus cases Italy was less than a month ago
    As the expert on Newsnight said, in Italy the pattern is of the virus spreading outwards from one location without being detected for many days, whereas in the UK it's happening in small patches all over the place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    Just looked - honestly looked like nothing much to me.

    I was at Twickenham, it was a great match, played in a good spirit.

    Face it, you just weren't good enough on the day.
    You had a good day out at HQ? :+1:

    I just realised it’s been nine years since I was there, the famous autumn 2011 win against the Aussies.
    Indeed - it was a very enjoyable day, even with beer at £6.20 a pint + £1 for the cup (wtf?!)

    Been a few years since I was there but I intend to not leave it as long next time.

    Btw the Welsh fans were, as ever, great!
    How much for a beer? :open_mouth:

    I found that the parents of the lemonade stand kids between the station and the stadium could usually be bribed for a tenner to bring out a half bottle of something to go in it. ;)

    I’ve been living abroad for a while now, and things like the 6N are on the list of reasons to go back. Sevens tournaments in HK and Dubai are pretty good fun though. I think.

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.




    It’s bred into them in Scottish, Welsh and Irish homes and schools and also via English funded local tv networks.

    Happily the internet will bypass in time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    There is, but a Welsh player was tweaking his nipple at the same time, which surely should come under the same bracket?
    It's like classifications of acceptable nudity on screen or expletives, not all get the same level of reaction.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    There is, but a Welsh player was tweaking his nipple at the same time, which surely should come under the same bracket?
    The citing commissioner is independent.

    I guess he looked to find the dirty players and -- surprise, surprise -- they all play for Dirty Eddie.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    Andy_JS said:
    Everyone knows that if you get shot or stabbed, you pour whisky into the wound and then you're good to go. You don't see Liam Neeson getting a bottle of tea tree soap out if he's had to go 10 rounds with some hell crazed Albanian traffickers do you?
    That’s apparently true(ish). If you have no antiseptic to clean the wound, whisky is better than nothing,
    But not much - to be effective alcohol needs to be about 80% - whisky (Gin, vodka) is generally 40%.
    Not even my rare cask strengths :wink:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Wow. Great article.

    The biggest ego on the planet scared of a microbe.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited March 2020

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    And did those feet... ? :wink:

    Let me just say, for the avoidance of doubt: there is no such thing as English exceptionalism, except in the mind of a few twisted f*ckers, and every nation has them.

    There are good and bad English men and women, same as every other country.

    And to reiterate, The Welsh fans we sat near on Saturday were great fun, nice people, cheered the Welsh tries, but accepted that the better team won on the day. And we'd have done the same had it been the other way round.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Jonathan said:
    We are seeing a huge amount of Darwin Award contenders this season
    Cocaine is likely to result in you being convinced the virus is out to get you personally and no one else.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    Oh Dr Foxy, I expected better. That video is basically fake news...it is heavily edited and takes his comments totally out of context. Its "persons of colour" type stuff.

    I genuinely angry about the person who tweeted it and think twitter should take it down. Now is not the time for this kind of crap or Tory Fact Checks type twitter bollocks.

    He gave that interview last week (on the most watched daytime tv show) and if he was really advocating what the edited clip is trying to suggest all the media would have come down on him like a tonne of bricks straight away...now somebody tweets this Monday. It is actually f##king disgraceful from a blue check mark journalist.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    And did those feet... ? :wink:

    Let me just say, for the avoidance of doubt: there is no such thing as English exceptionalism, except in the mind of a few twisted f*ckers, and every nation has them.

    There are good and bad English men and women, same as every other country.

    And to reiterate, The Welsh fans we sat near on Saturday were great fun, nice people, cheered the Welsh tries, but accepted that the better team won on the day. And we'd have done the same had it been the other way round.
    International rugby crowds are generally always well behaved. No-one who watches rugby wants to see segregated crowds as they have in football, and the stadium generally polices itself.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    Isn't this an edited version of the full answer that is deliberately misleading?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1237061881543544833

    Ok, Michigan. Let's wrap this up and focus on beating Trump.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    I think you just did a bit of co-opting. Freeman Dyson died an American citizen.

    Do the English need to be reminded of **why** he took American citizenship?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2020
    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    Isn't this an edited version of the full answer that is deliberately misleading?
    How can this video get reported to Twitter as fake news, so they can take it down for everyone who posted it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Germany seems have its first COVID19 deaths.

    https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1237163835754024960?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    I don't understand this.

    "Travelling into and out of northern Italy was continuing by rail, road and air on Monday – despite a government lockdown that was meant to isolate the area in the grip of a coronavirus outbreak.
    Airlines including EasyJet, Ryanair, British Airways were still serving airports in Milan and Venice -- the region's two biggest transport hubs -- even as all three companies announced fresh cuts to their flight schedules serving northern Italy."

    https://www.thelocal.it/20200309/travel-continues-in-and-out-of-northern-italy-despite-coronavirus-lockdown
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    Foxy said:

    Germany seems have its first COVID19 deaths.

    https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1237163835754024960?s=19

    If Western Europe sees only 2 in 1000 deaths and basically 89 year olds, we will be like the second coming of Christ.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Wouldn't that get them into severe legal trouble ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    James Joyce decided, to his own chagrin, that English was the greatest language in the world. And he spoke about 12, and was a genius in 9.

    English is the best language in the world. And I speak as someone with English as 100th language or summat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    Germany seems have its first COVID19 deaths.

    https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1237163835754024960?s=19

    If Western Europe sees only 2 in 1000 deaths and basically 89 year olds, we will be like the second coming of Christ.
    It is still the Phoney War, outside Italy
    I know, I obviously don't believe that will be the rate.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    edited March 2020
    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Tony Blair’s Civil Contingencies Act 2004 basically allows a government to do what they want in time of crisis. It even allows elections to be suspended.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Contingencies_Act_2004

    The choice given to the kidnapped former NHS workers would be to get with the programme or go to jail.

    Shouldn’t we applaud Tony Blair for such foresighted legislation?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    James Joyce decided, to his own chagrin, that English was the greatest language in the world. And he spoke about 12, and was a genius in 9.

    Didn't Joyce object so strongly to the Irish Free State that he refused its passport and moved away?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    I am not sure anyone would reasonably regard Feynman as an 'also ran'.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706

    Jonathan said:
    We are seeing a huge amount of Darwin Award contenders this season
    Cocaine is likely to result in you being convinced the virus is out to get you personally and no one else.
    This comment should be read in conjunction with the Vanity Fair piece.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    Poor show Foxy. This was already shown on the previous thread to be an edited version which missed out him rejecting that suggestion. If you are really bothered you can hunt down my posting where I link ti the full interview.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    That clip is fake news, look for the splice where they glue together two different parts of the interview.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Simple. Hold their family members hostage too. ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
    I cannot see it myself. They will be unregistered practitioners.

    The problem will be more in terms of physical assets than personnel. Supplies of Personal Protective Equipment look rather scanty to me.

    I do hope the DOH has more on the way.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Retired doctors and nurses are going to murder patients to get back to watching daytime TV? Sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    edited March 2020
    US mortality rate is 4.2% compared to 3.9% in China.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand this.

    "Travelling into and out of northern Italy was continuing by rail, road and air on Monday – despite a government lockdown that was meant to isolate the area in the grip of a coronavirus outbreak.
    Airlines including EasyJet, Ryanair, British Airways were still serving airports in Milan and Venice -- the region's two biggest transport hubs -- even as all three companies announced fresh cuts to their flight schedules serving northern Italy."

    https://www.thelocal.it/20200309/travel-continues-in-and-out-of-northern-italy-despite-coronavirus-lockdown

    Part of the issue is stupid air line slot rules. Even if the flights are empty the carriers will still fly them because if they don't then they can have the slots taken away from them, permanently. So until one or other of the Governments shuts them down it is often in their best interests to fly the planes even with no passengers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    That clip is fake news, look for the splice where they glue together two different parts of the interview.
    It ought to be reported to Twitter so they can remove it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    James Joyce decided, to his own chagrin, that English was the greatest language in the world. And he spoke about 12, and was a genius in 9.

    Didn't Joyce object so strongly to the Irish Free State that he refused its passport and moved away?

    He had a very ambivalent attitude towards Irish independence. He abhorred much of British rule - "beer and beef and bishops" - but he was quite skeptical of the nation that would emerge from Home Rule.

    I suspect he'd be jolly pleased by how well Ireland has done, economically, but severely lament the loss of its uniqueness.

    Ireland now feels like a more prosperous but faintly underfunded Lancashire, for the most. But then maybe that is the fate of all nations, under globalisation (pre virus). To meld into one general mass.
    I thought it was more a matter of seeing all nation states as archaic throwback, and wanting international socialism, but I never really enjoyed Joyce, so never read much.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923

    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?

    Yes.

    Because on the Diamond Princess, of the 3,711 passengers and staff on board, the total number who contracted the disease was 707.

    This meant that on a ship, before anyone knew how dangerous it was, and then afterwards, when everyone was crammed together in the same space, only one-in-five people caught it. Viral loads on the ship were probably an order of magnitude higher than any of us will see, given sensible precautions.

    Just as a cold - where little is done to prevent its spread - doesn't reach 100% of the world's population, COVID-19 will not reach 100%. Indeed, one in five people is probably about right.

    Now, combine that with 10% in serious conditions, and we have 2% of the population requiring hospitalisation. That's pretty bloody serious. But if we manage to get the transmission rates down (via sensible precautions), then the peak is lowered and extended. Sure it will be extremely unpleasant. But it will not be an existential threat.

    We're talking 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, not one million.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
    I cannot see it myself. They will be unregistered practitioners.

    The problem will be more in terms of physical assets than personnel. Supplies of Personal Protective Equipment look rather scanty to me.

    I do hope the DOH has more on the way.
    What do you think of the various rumours of the Govt recruiting extremely low risk but untrained individuals to help? It sounds like a nightmare, but if done competently could maybe work. If manpower is the limiting factor with treatment it may help, if done well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Andy_JS said:

    US mortality rate is 4.2% compared to 3.9% in China.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    If you think that the US knows all the cases...
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    rcs1000 said:

    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?

    Yes.

    Because on the Diamond Princess, of the 3,711 passengers and staff on board, the total number who contracted the disease was 707.

    This meant that on a ship, before anyone knew how dangerous it was, and then afterwards, when everyone was crammed together in the same space, only one-in-five people caught it. Viral loads on the ship were probably an order of magnitude higher than any of us will see, given sensible precautions.

    Just as a cold - where little is done to prevent its spread - doesn't reach 100% of the world's population, COVID-19 will not reach 100%. Indeed, one in five people is probably about right.

    Now, combine that with 10% in serious conditions, and we have 2% of the population requiring hospitalisation. That's pretty bloody serious. But if we manage to get the transmission rates down (via sensible precautions), then the peak is lowered and extended. Sure it will be extremely unpleasant. But it will not be an existential threat.

    We're talking 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, not one million.

    And amazingly none of the kids contracted it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
    I cannot see it myself. They will be unregistered practitioners.

    The problem will be more in terms of physical assets than personnel. Supplies of Personal Protective Equipment look rather scanty to me.

    I do hope the DOH has more on the way.
    Two of the nurse practitioners at the local GP are former ICU nurses. I wonder if we might see some of those who have moved on from ICU being called back in.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    There is, but a Welsh player was tweaking his nipple at the same time, which surely should come under the same bracket?
    The citing commissioner is independent.

    I guess he looked to find the dirty players and -- surprise, surprise -- they all play for Dirty Eddie.
    Of course my friend, but at the end of the day the scoreline is the final arbiter of right and wrong.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    US mortality rate is 4.2% compared to 3.9% in China.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    If you think that the US knows all the cases...
    I doubt that the US knows 1 in every 100 cases.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    The UK government's advice video on how to wash your hands properly has been watched by 703 people so far.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQCP7waTRWU
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Endillion said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Retired doctors and nurses are going to murder patients to get back to watching daytime TV? Sure.
    Nobody suggested that! Unwilling,resentful staff would have every incentive to go off sick themselves with - say - 'stress'.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?

    Yes.

    Because on the Diamond Princess, of the 3,711 passengers and staff on board, the total number who contracted the disease was 707.

    This meant that on a ship, before anyone knew how dangerous it was, and then afterwards, when everyone was crammed together in the same space, only one-in-five people caught it. Viral loads on the ship were probably an order of magnitude higher than any of us will see, given sensible precautions.

    Just as a cold - where little is done to prevent its spread - doesn't reach 100% of the world's population, COVID-19 will not reach 100%. Indeed, one in five people is probably about right.

    Now, combine that with 10% in serious conditions, and we have 2% of the population requiring hospitalisation. That's pretty bloody serious. But if we manage to get the transmission rates down (via sensible precautions), then the peak is lowered and extended. Sure it will be extremely unpleasant. But it will not be an existential threat.

    We're talking 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, not one million.

    We differ at the final number, a 5% mortality rate of found cases among an overwhelmed healthcare system seems more accurate, so many people need respirators and ECMOs to survive this. At which point we're at 650,000 deaths, which would be substantial
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Retweeted by the hapless James O’Brien, big odds on that he’s got the wrong end of the stick. Looks to me like Harry is talking to Boris at the start of the clip

    https://twitter.com/dminghella/status/1237076155259371521?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
    I cannot see it myself. They will be unregistered practitioners.

    The problem will be more in terms of physical assets than personnel. Supplies of Personal Protective Equipment look rather scanty to me.

    I do hope the DOH has more on the way.
    What do you think of the various rumours of the Govt recruiting extremely low risk but untrained individuals to help? It sounds like a nightmare, but if done competently could maybe work. If manpower is the limiting factor with treatment it may help, if done well.
    Our final year medical students have been notified by the University that they may be called upon. As they are in their early Twenties they would be much less at risk than the retired.

    Probably the best role for the retired would be to backfill other workers, who could then have more time for the Coronavirus patients.

    In practice, the peak is six weeks away, so by the time these are conscripted and updated, they would be obsolete

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    justin124 said:

    Endillion said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Retired doctors and nurses are going to murder patients to get back to watching daytime TV? Sure.
    Nobody suggested that! Unwilling,resentful staff would have every incentive to go off sick themselves with - say - 'stress'.
    Well, that's not quite "foul up the works", but ok.

    I guess I have more faith in the goodwill of people who've spent decades working in the health sector that they'd be prepared to step up and help your younger colleagues if the need was great enough.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    I am not sure anyone would reasonably regard Feynman as an 'also ran'.
    Compared to Newton?

    I would have picked a better composer than Dyson though, like Henry Purcell.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    isam said:

    Retweeted by the hapless James O’Brien, big odds on that he’s got the wrong end of the stick. Looks to me like Harry is talking to Boris at the start of the clip

    https://twitter.com/dminghella/status/1237076155259371521?s=21

    Perhaps the woke definition of being "blanked" involves actually talking to them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Andy_JS said:
    "outrageous"? Does she have no sense of perspective.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington has received new #coronavirus test results for 35 residents:

    31 positive
    1 negative
    3 inconclusive

    They are still awaiting test results for the remaining 20 Life Care residents.
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    They’ve clearly not read the Civil Contingencies Act, and mistakingly think they may have a choice in the matter.
    How can they be coerced into returning to work against their will? Such people would have a clear incentive to foul up the works to encourage the NHS to dispense with their services.
    Yep its a stupid idea. But I don't think health care workers forget a lifetime of Hippocratic oath just like that whatever their view of the Government. I have more faith in humanity than that. There will be some bluster and bear in mind that this was not a proper poll, just a call out for responses from readers of the Guardian with 120 replies. Not at all sure you could call it representative of the group as a whole.
    I cannot see it myself. They will be unregistered practitioners.

    The problem will be more in terms of physical assets than personnel. Supplies of Personal Protective Equipment look rather scanty to me.

    I do hope the DOH has more on the way.
    What do you think of the various rumours of the Govt recruiting extremely low risk but untrained individuals to help? It sounds like a nightmare, but if done competently could maybe work. If manpower is the limiting factor with treatment it may help, if done well.
    Our final year medical students have been notified by the University that they may be called upon. As they are in their early Twenties they would be much less at risk than the retired.

    Probably the best role for the retired would be to backfill other workers, who could then have more time for the Coronavirus patients.

    In practice, the peak is six weeks away, so by the time these are conscripted and updated, they would be obsolete

    Yeah, I have a large number of friends that are final year medical students who have received similar notice.

    That seems sensible, make the retired workers take over the non-coronavirus related cases.

    The flexibility of the reactions across different countries will be fascinating.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Retweeted by the hapless James O’Brien, big odds on that he’s got the wrong end of the stick. Looks to me like Harry is talking to Boris at the start of the clip

    https://twitter.com/dminghella/status/1237076155259371521?s=21

    Perhaps the woke definition of being "blanked" involves actually talking to them.
    Never mind that, who the hell is "Windsor"?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Dirty England.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51806678

    A red card, a yellow card & two more players cited by the independent citing commissioner.

    Dirty, dirty.

    The red card was utter bollocks. The grabbing of the bollocks was just average rugby.
    How are they going to prove Marler's alleged grope - is there video footage?
    It is on the site I linked to. It is pretty explicit.

    I am sure it make you proud to be English.
    The inferiority complex of the Celtic nations (indeed many nations around the world) vis-a-vis the English, is quite spectacular.

    I was in a London pub with a Welsh friend for the match on Saturday. It turned out we were surrounded by Irish, Aussies, Welsh, Scots, and others. They were all embarrassingly desperate for England to lose. It bordered on the pathological.

    When England won they all sulkily fled the pub, and went home. After being quite chatty and buoyant earlier.

    I kind of get it. England won the great culture war. The world speaks English (not French, or Spanish, or Arabic - or Mandarin). English norms dominate. England is a kind of global default. But it is still very odd to witness this resentment in such a raw form.

    After the extraordinary performance of Gallowgate & Co on pb.com the other day -- in which Boudicca was discovered to be English all along -- the simplest solution is for Wales, Scotland and Ireland to be formally merged into England.

    In fact, I can't wait for pb.com to discover that Albert Einstein was English all along.

    And Richard Feynman. And James Joyce. And Seamus Heaney.
    Newton. Dyson. Dickens. Keats.

    Why would we need to coopt the also-rans?
    I am not sure anyone would reasonably regard Feynman as an 'also ran'.
    Compared to Newton?

    I would have picked a better composer than Dyson though, like Henry Purcell.
    He could have meant James Dyson.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Andy_JS said:
    That's bad by Angela.

    Everyone knows that all evil goes back to 1979 and the coming of Fatcha.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

    Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

    Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

    Not an easy one to judge.

    This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

    But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

    And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.
    I'm +1ing this, because it's absolutely correct.

    Modest measures make a big difference.
    I agree entirely. We can reduce casualties by 30% or more via public health measures, if we choose.

    The economic costs of just letting it rip are not inconsequential either.

    https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1236778356105981953?s=19
    Surprised at you Foxy - I thought you were better than this. Full video:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vOHiaPwtGl4
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?

    Yes.

    Because on the Diamond Princess, of the 3,711 passengers and staff on board, the total number who contracted the disease was 707.

    This meant that on a ship, before anyone knew how dangerous it was, and then afterwards, when everyone was crammed together in the same space, only one-in-five people caught it. Viral loads on the ship were probably an order of magnitude higher than any of us will see, given sensible precautions.

    Just as a cold - where little is done to prevent its spread - doesn't reach 100% of the world's population, COVID-19 will not reach 100%. Indeed, one in five people is probably about right.

    Now, combine that with 10% in serious conditions, and we have 2% of the population requiring hospitalisation. That's pretty bloody serious. But if we manage to get the transmission rates down (via sensible precautions), then the peak is lowered and extended. Sure it will be extremely unpleasant. But it will not be an existential threat.

    We're talking 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, not one million.

    We differ at the final number, a 5% mortality rate of found cases among an overwhelmed healthcare system seems more accurate, so many people need respirators and ECMOs to survive this. At which point we're at 650,000 deaths, which would be substantial
    You're assuming that we're not able to extend and lower the peak.

    Look at South Korea and Japan.

    Cancel sporting events, encourage people to work from home and avoid non-essential travel.

    Nothing that serious. Not like a total quarantine. But a cutting of people's physical interactions by 40-70%.

    Sure, it's a negative for economic growth. But it also (as seen in Korea and Japan) results in new cases plateauing relatively quickly. In this way, hospitals are able to treat the sick. And the virus never goes completely unconstrained. Exponential growth suddenly becomes arithmetic.

    Now it's still pretty serious and pretty scary. And you can't put the genie back in the bottle. But you can slow its spread so it doesn't overwhelm us.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is a rather head scratching fact...

    And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

    Are we really to believe it?

    Yes.

    Because on the Diamond Princess, of the 3,711 passengers and staff on board, the total number who contracted the disease was 707.

    This meant that on a ship, before anyone knew how dangerous it was, and then afterwards, when everyone was crammed together in the same space, only one-in-five people caught it. Viral loads on the ship were probably an order of magnitude higher than any of us will see, given sensible precautions.

    Just as a cold - where little is done to prevent its spread - doesn't reach 100% of the world's population, COVID-19 will not reach 100%. Indeed, one in five people is probably about right.

    Now, combine that with 10% in serious conditions, and we have 2% of the population requiring hospitalisation. That's pretty bloody serious. But if we manage to get the transmission rates down (via sensible precautions), then the peak is lowered and extended. Sure it will be extremely unpleasant. But it will not be an existential threat.

    We're talking 100,000 excess deaths in the UK, not one million.

    We differ at the final number, a 5% mortality rate of found cases among an overwhelmed healthcare system seems more accurate, so many people need respirators and ECMOs to survive this. At which point we're at 650,000 deaths, which would be substantial
    You're assuming that we're not able to extend and lower the peak.

    Look at South Korea and Japan.

    Cancel sporting events, encourage people to work from home and avoid non-essential travel.

    Nothing that serious. Not like a total quarantine. But a cutting of people's physical interactions by 40-70%.

    Sure, it's a negative for economic growth. But it also (as seen in Korea and Japan) results in new cases plateauing relatively quickly. In this way, hospitals are able to treat the sick. And the virus never goes completely unconstrained. Exponential growth suddenly becomes arithmetic.

    Now it's still pretty serious and pretty scary. And you can't put the genie back in the bottle. But you can slow its spread so it doesn't overwhelm us.
    If you're somewhere near the age threshold where mortality spikes up, you might personally have a better outcome from getting it now rather than in two-years time, all things being equal. I'm sure Dominic Cummings has some game theorists working on it.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2020
    Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...

    How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020

    This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.

    But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Monkeys said:
    This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.
    I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
    Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
    And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.
    Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.
    It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.
    As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.
    That's the crucial point, of course.
    To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.
    And in this current crisis the number of extra beds is insignificant compared to the number who will need it. I'm not sure that's worth paying 3x extra for (that seems awfully large, given the size of the NHS budget!)
    I guess we will see how prudent that investment was.
    Germany really spends 30% of GDP on health?
    No, a bit above 20%, I seem to recall.
    ONS suggests it's 11%, compared to 10% in the UK.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
    I'm unsure what metrics have been used there. I would be somewhat astonished if it were possible to deliver more than 4 times as many hospital beds for basically the same money.
    I thought the same but everywhere I look for information the numbers come up basically the same with the UK spending 10% of GDP and Germany and France spending 11%. In all cases this is taking into account private provision and insurance based systems as well as public provision.

    It does seem that, all joking apart, you do seem to have a far more efficient health care system in Germany compared to the UK.
    It's been a while since I have looked into this issue in detail. It's notoriously difficult to determine the real output and cost, due to the fractured and mixed nature of the German system.

    The numbers that I had in the back of my mind were around 20% GDP (which will certainly have included the health cure, and care home and ambulant care sector, funded in Germany via compulsory care insurance on top of the regular health insurance) and in comparison to the UK numbers a ratio of either 1/2.6 or 1/2.8.

    I really can't remember where I took these numbers from, my best guess for an explanation would be inconsistencies in the metrics applied to compile numbers like those from the world bank etc.

    As much as I would appreciate such a feat of Teutonic efficiency, I hesitate to believe that it should be possible to generate that much more output per expenditure.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Random thoughts:

    - We are simply never going to know whether Brexit was a negative to the economy in the short to medium term. I mean, we weren't going to know anyway, but now we're really not going to know.

    - The above notwithstanding, the impacts of this on any one country are unlikely to be particularly long lasting. Even in Italy, once the virus burns itself out, I reckon everything will return to normal pretty quickly. Weeks, maybe a few months from most people's point of view. Some medium term economic effects that will be harder to discern from ground level.

    - Coronavirus is a Nationalist plot by the SNP to distract attention away from the Salmond trial. Discuss.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...

    How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020

    This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.

    But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.

    Thanks - fascinating - well worth a read:

    First among the important unknowns about COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR), which requires information on the denominator that defines the number infected. We are unaware of any completed large-scale serology surveys to detect specific antibodies to COVID-19. Best estimates suggest a CFR for COVID-19 of about 0·3–1%, which is higher than the order of 0·1% CFR for a moderate influenza A season.
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