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Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Then there's this.

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608

We saw how quickly it spread through the Iranian (and now French) political class.

HM in her isolation suite, I hope.

I am shocked I tell you...shocked it wasn't the dog that got paid...

https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1237071903866499072?s=20

FrancisUrquhart said:

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

Good. Lots needs to be done. Park my points and look at the NHS. Park the large scale lack of beds and capacity. Look at the support staff responsible for keeping facilities clean and disease free. As has been pointed out these staff are largely on contracts that do not pay sick pay. Which means they will be in work spreading illness if the government isn't going to step on and pay them to self-quarantine.

Donald the corvid.

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.

The interesting question will be where that power shifts to. China looks severely wounded by this and will take time to recover. One worry for them will be if they are shown to have spread the virus into Africa which still seems to me to be an area that is horribly underreporting.

No political leadership looks to have come out of (or rather come into) this particularly well at this point.

dr_spyn said:

Donald the corvid.

It's nothing to crow about.

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

I am now firmly of the opinion it will be horrific whatever they do and they will be making decisions that they hope will transform 500,000 deaths to the 100,000 they are talking about.

Just as in war, lots of mistakes will be made, we just hope that ultimately we come through it and our experts have made as few as mistake as possible.

I can only imagine sitting there with their mathematical models tweaking parameters and running sims trying to find the balance that gets them the optimal number of deaths.

I used to have models and run sims as a professional gambler and that was hugely stressful, but ultimately all that was at stake was my money, not human life.

Richard_Tyndall said:

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

Totally agree. Trump's finger prints are all over this disaster. Dumping Pence in there at the last minute will do nothing.

He'll be known as Trump the Terrible or something similar. Nursery rhymes will be passed on about him from generation to generation.

This disaster will also be the key moment in the global power shift unfortunately.

The interesting question will be where that power shifts to. China looks severely wounded by this and will take time to recover. One worry for them will be if they are shown to have spread the virus into Africa which still seems to me to be an area that is horribly underreporting.

No political leadership looks to have come out of (or rather come into) this particularly well at this point.

The Japanese appear to have made by far the best fist of it of any global power, on the early evidence.

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

Or ignorance, more accurately...

Wilful ignorance.

Benpointer said:

dr_spyn said:

Donald the corvid.

It's nothing to crow about.

You sound chough-ed.

Floater said:

Speechless

"Greece's powerful Orthodox Church has rejected calls to stop communion that has been identified a risk for spreading the coronavirus, Instead, priests have been instructed nationwide to pray against the spread of the disease.

The Church of Greece's governing body said Monday that the spoonful of wine inserted into believers' mouths during communion "clearly cannot cause the spread of disease."

It called communion is an "act of love" that conquers fear in a statement."

Similar stuff coming out of the US unfortunately.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

dr_spyn said:

Donald the corvid.

It's nothing to crow about.

You sound chough-ed.

Donald Jay Trump.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1237140517172936704/photo/1

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

There was a discussion of this on the last thread.

The more centralised systems will be better at co-ordination, but will suffer from a lack of resources. This is the UK.

The less centralised systems (Germany, Italy, USA) will find co-ordination much more difficult, with layers of bureaucracy between the ministry of health and the patient, but with potentially more ICU beds available.

UK can expect to see visible contingency measures (routine medical services postponed, military field hospitals turning up in car parks) earlier than the less centralised systems.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I am no fan of this government but they have an unenviable challenge.

I am prepared to believe they are doing the right things at present. Whatever they do they will be criticised and inevitably some of the decisions they make now in good faith will turn out to be misguided.

I am comforted by the feeling that they seem to be listening to experts and we do actually have a talented civil service to make things happen.

Fingers-crossed that between them they get it largely right. Picking over the mistakes can wait for later.

I am now firmly of the opinion it will be horrific whatever they do and they will be making decisions that they hope will transform 500,000 deaths to the 100,000 they are talking about.

Just as in war, lots of mistakes will be made, we just hope that ultimately we come through it and our experts have made as few as mistake as possible.

I can only imagine sitting there with their mathematical models tweaking parameters and running sims trying to find the balance that gets them the optimal number of deaths.

I used to have models and run sims as a professional gambler and that was hugely stressful, but ultimately all that was at stake was my money, not human life.

Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

Not an easy one to judge.

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

Boris could always demand some from Germany as belated war reparations.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

So true

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1237060903889252354?s=09

There we have it, the British government cannot be wrong, by definition.

When they finally belatedly do the things that are already working in Japan and South Korea, those things will go from being a hysterical panic reaction to being sensible commonsense things to do, in a matter of seconds.

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.

Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...

Are we about to see an irony so great that it will cause the universe to collapse in on itself?

Sometime soon Mexico decides to shut the border with the United States to stop Americans fleeing to Mexico to avoid the coronavirus.

Sandpit said:

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

Or ignorance, more accurately...

COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?

With apologies to Paul Hardcastle:

C-c-c-c-covid 19

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are we about to see an irony so great that it will cause the universe to collapse in on itself?

Sometime soon Mexico decides to shut the border with the United States to stop Americans fleeing to Mexico to avoid the coronavirus.

Build a wall and make America pay for it?

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

That's very good to know.

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

Why are people buying bottled water? I can't see why the water supply might fail.

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

That's very good to know.

Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.

Benpointer said:

Agreed. There's a very fine balance to be struck:

Lock down too tightly, too early and the economic impact will be disasterous and potentially people won't stand for it, leading to civil unrest.

Leave it too late and the health service will be overrun, leading to high fatalities and the risk of economic and civil disrpution.

Not an easy one to judge.

This is where the western take on what's happened in Asia has got all twisted. People are looking at the *Chinese* response, which was a complete lockdown in an authoritarian country, and thinking that they have to do that.

But that's not what Japan and South Korea are doing. "Please work from home if practical. Please consider cancelling public events. We're extending the school holidays." It's somewhat disruptive, but it's not a devastating shutdown of everything. And by doing it earlier, you reduce the risk that you will need to do a devastating shutdown of everything.

And it's almost entirely voluntary. People don't want to get sick, and they don't want other people to get sick. The government doesn't need to coerce. It needs to lead.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sandpit said:

bookseller said:

Chameleon said:

IanB2 said:

The US response to this crisis will be seen as one of the most catastrophic failures of public policy of all time.

How many excess deaths will be attributed to Trump's response? Will he be the President that killed hundreds of thousands or millions due to laziness?

Or ignorance, more accurately...

COVID-19. Don’t die of ignorance.

Nah, not as catchy, is it...?

With apologies to Paul Hardcastle:

C-c-c-c-covid 19

LOL. Yes, someone has to remake this.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=b3LdMAqUMnM

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

I am no fan of Boris and in normal circumstances he definitely sees every decision first and foremost through a lens of how it will work out for him personally.

But watch the press conference this afternoon, you can see the fear, you can see just how massive this is and also that he keeps his crap to a minimum and defers to the two experts.

He thought on his watch the worst that would happen were some big lorry park in Kent and arguing with the French about whose fishing boat has the right to a certain spot...now he knows perhaps 100,000s of people are going to die on his watch and all he can do it try and do is hold it together.

Yes - I thought there was less of the Pound Shop Churchill about him, and that's to his credit. As the saying goes "this shit just got real"...

Actually, it's "Shit just got real":

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shit just got real

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives

India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.

Plus Indians are focussed on killing Muslims on the moment.

It's a toxic mix.

There's so much fake news in India at the moment, the cow botherers are spreading messages that say Muslims are responsible for the coronavirus because they kill/eat cows.

Trump live on Sky

He is going to be responsible for thousands of lost lives

Be gone

Mike Pence just said the risk of serious disease remains low

Idiots the pair of them

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Interesting one - phone companies in India are playing an automated public health announcement at the start of all calls:

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/telecom-operators-in-india-warn-people-of-coronavirus-outbreak-share-tips/

47 cases in India
16 in Pakistan
3 in Bangladesh
1 in Nepal
1 in Sri Lanka
4 in Maldives

India is the next Iran. But with worse healthcare and 15 times the population. Discuss.

"On 3 March 2020, the Indian government suspended the issuing of new visas and visas already issued for nationals of Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.[38] On 4 March 2020, the Minister of Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, announced compulsory screening of all international passengers arriving in India. He also said that so far, 589,000 people have been screened at airports, over one million screened at borders with Nepal and around 27,000 were currently under community surveillance.[39][40] The government shall also now start universal screening for all passengers flying into India from abroad. Earlier, only passengers coming in from China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia were checked."

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.

That's the crucial point, of course.
To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.

FCO

Returnees to UK from Italy have to self isolate for 14 days

welshowl said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

That's very good to know.

Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.

Waitrose here was out of toilet roll, split red lentils and porridge oats. What that tells you, I don't know!

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

As I said, a rounding error. If there was a routine need for many more critical care beds, I could see an argument for increasing them. To double the number just for spare capacity in case something like this doesn't seem sensible, especially given that the NHS only has a finite budget.

That's the crucial point, of course.
To have 4.5 times the capacity we have to pay roughly 3 times as much as you as % of GDP.

And in this current crisis the number of extra beds is insignificant compared to the number who will need it. I'm not sure that's worth paying 3x extra for (that seems awfully large, given the size of the NHS budget!)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FCO

Returnees to UK from Italy have to self isolate for 14 days

Is that a "should" or "must".

Trevor Phillips doesn’t understand Islamophobia - Sayeeda Warsi

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/09/trevor-phillips-islamophobia-muslims

Sayeeda Warsi does appear to have turned into "everybody is a Islamophobe"

bookseller said:

welshowl said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

matt said:

bookseller said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do you not think that if the government is planning for massive social changes, large scale lock downs, only certain individuals to work etc, that they will perhaps want to keep the number of people who know about it to a bare minimum and let things come out when they are ready?

I highly doubt they are going to ring up the Grocer and say hey you know we had all the supermarkets in yesterday and they have all agreed come April, they will work together and the nation will live on rations.

Even the report of the supermarkets know nothing about any meetings...well the press clearly ring up their contact in the PR department of Asda, Tescos etc and say are you meeting with the government....to the answer will be no. But do we really know where the MDs were in meetings and they were asked no to say anything about it?

I really see this now as we are on a war footing (I don't think the press have grasped it yet). It isn't normal operation of government leaking to their friendly journos, flying kites etc. Noticed how nobody knows anything about the budget.

I took from the PM press conference today is we are being primed for Wednesday, then primed for another step say Friday.

I think you give too much credit to a government led by Boris "Come on, we're British, we won two world wars, etc." Johnson.

If there is any deliberate intent behind all this, I think it's 'a heads-we-win, tails-you-lose' scenario: if we contain it, they'll get praise for not over-reacting, if it blows up, it'll be largely older people who will suffer, and that solves the care situation...

What I would agree with is that we are on a war footing and rationing will come. Largely because of what the Germans call 'hamsterkaüfer' (hoarders)...

Deleted

Have you been into a supermarket in the last few days?

We grow 61% of our food (approx - NFU figures). If there is a large-scale lockdown, you will get disrupted supply chains, and people will start to hoard. Sorry. The bloke three doors down from me came home with his car boot full of toilet roll, water bottles and pasta...he's not alone.

Yes, I was in a CoOp this morning. It was fully stocked. Including lavatory rolls, kitchen rolls, wipes, pasta (crunchy for wiping I’m guessing) and Evian. That’s a fact though. I appreciate that fuckwits on Twitter are the approved information source du jour.

That's very good to know.

Ditto Sainsbury’s Cardiff. Bit short on pasta and bog roll compared to normal ( and cat food and cat litter which I thought was really sweet, if hoarding can be, that folks are thinking about their four footed friends), but nothing was not available that I could see. You could buy pasta, bog roll, and pet stuff and everything else looked totally normal.

Waitrose here was out of toilet roll, split red lentils and porridge oats. What that tells you, I don't know!

Toilet roll, lentils and oats sounds like an "interesting" culinary combination...

Chameleon said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

RobD said:

Monkeys said:

https://twitter.com/groote_tom/status/1237139686914764800

This point gets bandied about a lot, but it's utterly meaningless when you need 50-100x as many beds. Doubling it would be a drop in the ocean, and a waste of resources to have had them and not needed them for the past years.

I guess it's a view that this is 'utterly meaningless'.
Adifferent view is that the existing capacities will in fact have to be multiplied, mostly not to the existing high standards, but as makeshift emergency solutions.
And that this will be more easy the bigger the base that you can start from.

Having 8,000 beds vs 4,000 will make no difference if hundreds of thousands need one.

It will make a difference to 4,000 people. And the aggregate numbers will be a bit higher.

It's essentially meaningless though. If it takes 4 weeks to recover (which is a generous assumption), that's about 10,000 people over the entire outbreak, potentially a rounding error.

I'm struggling to follow your numbers. The "4,000" I quoted were taken from Rob's comment. The difference in ICU beds will in total numbers be much higher than 4,000, and, as I said, the existing facilities will only be a base from where to expand rapidly.

GideonWise said:

Why are people buying bottled water? I can't see why the water supply might fail.

My take would be with so many people off ill, imagine the water mains burst. Normally they will out later that day to sort, but short staffed they might not get there for several days.