politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders trailing by 22% in Michigan – a state where he beat Hi
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It is having a big Democratic majority in both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency that will initiate change, not just an external movement, probably even bigger than that which passed the Obamacare compromise in 2010WhisperingOracle said:
Without an external movement to match the crisis like Sanders', I expect the vested interests to reassert themselves - even in this crisis. The corrupting of the american political system by special interests runs incredibly deep.HYUFD said:
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/16/20694598/joe-biden-health-care-plan-public-optionWhisperingOracle said:
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.HYUFD said:
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHSWhisperingOracle said:
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.eadric said:
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.Casino_Royale said:I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.1 -
Early study showed one thing, later study has shown another. It is this particular virus that we have still to learn much about.YBarddCwsc said:
That is not correct. Yours is a fundamentally medievalist and anti-scientific outlook.ukpaul said:
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.GideonWise said:
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.ukpaul said:Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
The modelling of epidemics is a mature science. It is much easier than modelling climate change, for example.
There is an abundance of data in a number of countries. The data are constraining.
So, it is not true that the government, or Whitty, have just "chosen to believe [something] at this point in time."0 -
It’s also an issue with things like that too, yes.Anabobazina said:
My son’s school has had its Poppy Day mural up since October.Casino_Royale said:There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
People are so nervous and desperate to be seen to be doing the right thing these days (or perhaps too accurately: too afraid of taking the risk to be seen not to be, which they perhaps calculate simply isn’t worth it)0 -
The first two cases were school children who had been to Italy. It might be that a raft of kids and parents tie back to one or two events.Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
Criticism of Trump's Covid-19 related behaviour is valid on several grounds. The argument that opponents from the media and the Democratic Party are critical simply by their own partisanship in this instance is not true.Sandpit said:
Another example, of political journalists this time, not knowing when to STFU.TheScreamingEagles said:
The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.0 -
The media focus tends to be on professional women aspiring to the top of the career ladder in major Western countries.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1236660267376873472Casino_Royale said:There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.1 -
Just seen the news of 2 deaths in Germany. Not good.0
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The general public will begin to take the virus more seriously, once the media stop reporting that the Don is not taking it seriously? Seriously?Sandpit said:
Another example, of political journalists this time, not knowing when to STFU.TheScreamingEagles said:
The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.0 -
God he’s a twat. I would vote for senile sleepy Joe. In a heartbeat.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Nah that was @IanB2.eadric said:
Not strictly true. I believe I helped Ishmael to offload his shares some time before the Crash. About five weeks ago. When I told you all exactly what was going to happen, and predicted that this story would dominate the news for the next year.Luckyguy1983 said:
Whilst I appreciate there is some humour intended in this post, what you've actually been is utterly, unconstructively ghoulish. However the Coronavirus situation turns out, nobody here will have been helped one tiny bit by your histrionic oeuvre.eadric said:
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.Chameleon said:
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?eadric said:
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.Chameleon said:
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.Floater said:203 new cases / 11 deaths in France
428 / 11 Spain
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
You said the same pointless adolescent know-nothing shit to me then, as well, and you then went back to arguing about care home wage structure. So it's all good. Carry on.0 -
I agree that criticism of the US action on Covid-19 is valid, but this is a UK political media story talking about UK government “insiders”, rather than domestic US opposition to the Administration.Mexicanpete said:
Criticism of Trump's Covid-19 related behaviour is valid on several grounds. The argument that opponents from the media and the Democratic Party are critical simply by their own partisanship in this instance is not true.Sandpit said:
Another example, of political journalists this time, not knowing when to STFU.TheScreamingEagles said:
The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.
Most of the Lobby have never known a genuinely serious domestic crisis before, certainly not in the age of Twitter and 24-hour news channels. It shows, and not in a good way.
If they want to be taken seriously, they need to start printing the advise of the government and their advisors, with as little “opinion” as possible.1 -
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
A girl in my daughter's class flew back from Turin at the weekend after a week in Italy. Slightly surprised that rather than self-isolating she's gone into school. Not entirely sure what I should be expecting.0
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I think they mean Devon and Torbay combined.TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
How many of your senior management do not identify as men? Without that, it’s just a pathetic exercise in PR. I can name a number of other major UK companies whose LinkedIn pages will be filled with this and yet if one looks at who is in charge, testicles not competence is king.Casino_Royale said:There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.1 -
There was an Italian man yesterday who tweeted that he'd visited northern Italy for a couple of days and then returned to the UK, with no checks whatsoever at the airport.0
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Don't understand your post. The point is Germany had managed to avoid deaths until today despite a large number of cases.matt said:
Car crash? Heart attack? Liver failure? Cancer? Or are those irrelevant as you hunt for the margins?Andy_JS said:Just seen the news of 2 deaths in Germany. Not good.
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That change is limited by the backgrounds of those involved. Clyburn was a kingmaker in the affordable care act, and Biden's recent comeback, for instance, and is expected to be so again. He's taken millions from pharmaceutical companies and excluded them from the Act.HYUFD said:
It is having a big Democratic majority in both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency that will initiate change, not just an external movement, probably even bigger than that which passed the Obamacare compromise in 2010WhisperingOracle said:
Without an external movement to match the crisis like Sanders', I expect the vested interests to reassert themselves - even in this crisis. The corrupting of the american political system by special interests runs incredibly deep.HYUFD said:
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/16/20694598/joe-biden-health-care-plan-public-optionWhisperingOracle said:
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.HYUFD said:
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHSWhisperingOracle said:
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.eadric said:
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.Casino_Royale said:I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
If anything, campaign finance reform in America has to come first, however urgent the health crisis.0 -
I see you've scarpered to the sanctity of London.MarqueeMark said:
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
So let's assume that some proportion of people in the UK don't get the flu vaccination.
Does everyone in the UK then go on to develop flu?1 -
It's being done at upper tier and unitary authority level, so they were "carved out" in 1996.MarqueeMark said:
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237084872793100290?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8508/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-sanders-trailing-by-22-in-michigan-a-state-where-he-beat-hi/p1
Interesting polls. I'm not at all convinced that a questionably competent Biden can outperform some of those Sanders numbers in the autumn, but this crisis may be his one get-out, as it could have been Sanders' one rare opportunity for radical change on health.1 -
Starting to hit Bernie now to ease off my 'if it's Sanders my wallet dies' position.0
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Well, think harder about risk.Andy_JS said:0 -
...And I go green on the Dem nominee book.*
* unless it is Tulsi. In which case the whole world has finally flipped.
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No. Nothing like. Which is why I remain extremely doubtful about the extrapolations of exponential maths in the real world. But that doesn’t make this anything but bad.TOPPING said:So let's assume that some proportion of people in the UK don't get the flu vaccination.
Does everyone in the UK then go on to develop flu?0 -
Oh absolutely. The problem as we are seeing is if everyone isn't going to get it but thinks they are going to get it.DavidL said:
No. Nothing like. Which is why I remain extremely doubtful about the extrapolations of exponential maths in the real world. But that doesn’t make this anything but bad.TOPPING said:So let's assume that some proportion of people in the UK don't get the flu vaccination.
Does everyone in the UK then go on to develop flu?0 -
If all the candidates get coronavirus, she'll likely be last one standing.....rottenborough said:...And I go green on the Dem nominee book.*
* unless it is Tulsi. In which case the whole world has finally flipped.0 -
Yes, she seemed to have a talent for putting together a terrible team. Remember Mark Penn from the race against Obama? And apparently the campaigns that fished most heavily from her pool this time were the Warren and Harris ones, two promising-looking candidates who ended up face-planting.Malmesbury said:
True. Hillary also has two terrible flaws as a candidate - not trusting anyone outside "her" group and having no in depth knowledge of "how it works". Relatives of mine in New York (Democrats since FDR etc) saw her come in as Senator, and demand that large swathes of the party infrastructure be turned over to her people. Alot of deep knowledge was removed and replaced with new people, often on inflated salaries. She managed to p**s off a very large number of people in the NY party by doing this.
The attempted takeover of the national party was on similar lines. And there her lack of understanding of where to campaign meant she over-ruled the genuine experts. Including Bill.0 -
The ELE asteroid is no doubt on its way so that eadric can escalate to the next level upmatt said:
We all die, apparently. It’s a direct straight line.TOPPING said:So let's assume that some proportion of people in the UK don't get the flu vaccination.
Does everyone in the UK then go on to develop flu?
0 -
Which is why it would take a big Democratic Senate majority as well as in the House and a Democratic President to over come resistance even internally, however as I have said I think a public option as Biden wants is both better and more realistic than single payer as Sanders wantsWhisperingOracle said:
That change is limited by the backgrounds of those involved. Clyburn was a kingmaker in the affordable care act, and Biden's recent comeback, for instance, and is expected to be so again. He's taken millions from pharmaceutical companies and excluded them from the Act.HYUFD said:
It is having a big Democratic majority in both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency that will initiate change, not just an external movement, probably even bigger than that which passed the Obamacare compromise in 2010WhisperingOracle said:
Without an external movement to match the crisis like Sanders', I expect the vested interests to reassert themselves - even in this crisis. The corrupting of the american political system by special interests runs incredibly deep.HYUFD said:
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/16/20694598/joe-biden-health-care-plan-public-optionWhisperingOracle said:
I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.HYUFD said:
A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHSWhisperingOracle said:
However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.eadric said:
I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.Casino_Royale said:I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.
But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.
She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.
If anything, campaign finance reform in America has to come first, however urgent the health crisis.0 -
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.FF43 said:
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.Scott_xP said:
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.0 -
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:
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Casino_Royale said:
Congratulations on missing (wilfully) the point entirely, and entirely predictably.Alistair said:
Year round equality.Casino_Royale said:There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.
International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.
Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.
The horror.
For your comment to be true it would need to be the case that equality only happened on those two days, and didn’t happen on any other day of the year.
That is palpably not the case. Almost all companies now have very well developed diversity and equality policies, and it’s now also the law, so what these events do to “advance” either cause is marginal. Instead they are basically about people and companies grandstanding to earn a bit of kudos.
The trouble is that when you grandstand constantly it ceases to become grandstanding at all: it just becomes meaningless and background noise.
And doesn’t change a thing.RobD said:
I think they mean Devon and Torbay combined.TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.
It really beggars belief.DavidL said:
Not this. It’s irresponsible and should be stopped.Cookie said:A girl in my daughter's class flew back from Turin at the weekend after a week in Italy. Slightly surprised that rather than self-isolating she's gone into school. Not entirely sure what I should be expecting.
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via the GWR Flying Test-tube of Doom.....TOPPING said:
I see you've scarpered to the sanctity of London.MarqueeMark said:
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.0 -
And that's why President Trump may have made a terrible error.HYUFD said:
(From a political point of view) he should have said "This is terrible! And it's all the fault of foreigners! Specifically Chinese foreigners!"
Because the power of positive thinking breaks down when someone you know gets the disease. Or you lose a relative.
At that point, you start to stress. And the first question you ask is "why didn't the government do more?"3 -
Wait, aren't the UK government doing loads of testing? There was a stat earlier saying the detection rate was under 1%.FF43 said:
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.FF43 said:
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.Scott_xP said:
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.1 -
Would be evidence of Russian bio engineering at that point.MarqueeMark said:
If all the candidates get coronavirus, she'll likely be last one standing.....rottenborough said:...And I go green on the Dem nominee book.*
* unless it is Tulsi. In which case the whole world has finally flipped.0 -
As I write I am standing on Didcot Parkway station because the windscreen wipers broke on the (GWR) train I was travelling on.MarqueeMark said:
via the GWR Flying Test-tube of Doom.....TOPPING said:
I see you've scarpered to the sanctity of London.MarqueeMark said:
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.
EDIT: WINDSCREEN WIPERS0 -
I think there is now a good chance the Democrats will take both the Presidency and the Senate.rcs1000 said:
And that's why President Trump may have made a terrible error.HYUFD said:
(From a political point of view) he should have said "This is terrible! And it's all the fault of foreigners! Specifically Chinese foreigners!"
Because the power of positive thinking breaks down when someone you know gets the disease. Or you lose a relative.
At that point, you start to stress. And the first question you ask is "why didn't the government do more?"0 -
Yet, almost won. Despite her manifest flaws. Biden is palpably leaking his brains from his ears, but provided he doesn’t say something indelibly stupid in the final Democratic debates, he has every opportunity. That’s before his vaunted “charisma” (a euphemism for reminding people of their avoidable, slightly handsy, great uncle?) takes hold.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, she seemed to have a talent for putting together a terrible team. Remember Mark Penn from the race against Obama? And apparently the campaigns that fished most heavily from her pool this time were the Warren and Harris ones, two promising-looking candidates who ended up face-planting.Malmesbury said:
True. Hillary also has two terrible flaws as a candidate - not trusting anyone outside "her" group and having no in depth knowledge of "how it works". Relatives of mine in New York (Democrats since FDR etc) saw her come in as Senator, and demand that large swathes of the party infrastructure be turned over to her people. Alot of deep knowledge was removed and replaced with new people, often on inflated salaries. She managed to p**s off a very large number of people in the NY party by doing this.
The attempted takeover of the national party was on similar lines. And there her lack of understanding of where to campaign meant she over-ruled the genuine experts. Including Bill.0 -
Alistair said:
Would be evidence of Russian bio engineering at that point.MarqueeMark said:
If all the candidates get coronavirus, she'll likely be last one standing.....rottenborough said:...And I go green on the Dem nominee book.*
* unless it is Tulsi. In which case the whole world has finally flipped.
"All the candidates" would be any person who ever held office for the Dems.0 -
The Met elite Coronavirus posts are pretty hackneyed and unfunny. I’ve seen four variations on the olives/focaccia theme plus at least one saying how Met eliters won’t be able to bear holidaying in the UK, when holidaying the UK is actually rather popular with the urban middle classes!JohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:1 -
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).rural_voter said:More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.0 -
Happened to me on a Hull Trains service in November at Newark. Had to get a taxi to connect with the Saturday only Brigg line service at Retford!TOPPING said:
As I write I am standing on Didcot Parkway station because the windscreen wipers broke on the (GWR) train I was travelling on.MarqueeMark said:
via the GWR Flying Test-tube of Doom.....TOPPING said:
I see you've scarpered to the sanctity of London.MarqueeMark said:
+2 +3 in Torbay (not sure why they have been carved out).TOPPING said:
Yep. Devon. "+2".Chameleon said:I've got the local authority stats since they started doing precise numbers on the 7th. Current hotspots (growth from 7th March):
Hertfordshire: 13 (+5)
Devon excl. Torbay: 12 (+2)
Brighton: 8 (+1)
Hampshire: 8 (+6!!)
K&C: 8 (+2)
Torbay: 7 (+3).
Devon is very clearly the big hotspot in the UK right now.
EDIT: WINDSCREEN WIPERS0 -
The 35% will look very different when their local hospital is breaking down with ICU requiring patients and members of their own extended family are lying on the floor desperate for a ventilator.rcs1000 said:
And that's why President Trump may have made a terrible error.HYUFD said:
(From a political point of view) he should have said "This is terrible! And it's all the fault of foreigners! Specifically Chinese foreigners!"
Because the power of positive thinking breaks down when someone you know gets the disease. Or you lose a relative.
At that point, you start to stress. And the first question you ask is "why didn't the government do more?"
Trump's crazy world of through the looking glass all news except my news is fake is about to hit brute, terrible reality.
0 -
So basically nothing new there thenChameleon said:
I have to say, even by your standards, this is quite an overreaction to France's cases not soaring, which is likely largely the case because of the weekend. Regardless, their neighbours to the south, east, and north are all increasing rapidly, so even if they have somehow contained this it won't last for long. Bar a few nations, this isn't a war that can be won on a national level.eadric said:
Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.Chameleon said:
Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?eadric said:
I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.Chameleon said:
Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.Floater said:203 new cases / 11 deaths in France
428 / 11 Spain
Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?
We must hope so.
You're emotionally swinging like a possessed pendulum.0 -
Made me laugh.dr_spyn said:0 -
It doesn't seem the government/medical officers expect those with mild flu like symptoms to be tested early enough not to spread the virus onto others, if it turns out they do have the novel coronavirus. They are not asking them to self isolate. The UK is testing at one tenth the rate of South Korea.RobD said:
Wait, aren't the UK government doing loads of testing? There was a stat earlier saying the detection rate was under 1%.FF43 said:
It seems countries that are successful at reducing the death rate have three lines of defence. The first line is lots of testing to ensure cases are picked up early. Those then go into quarantine to ensure they don't pass the virus on. The second line of defence is effective separation of those with the virus from those without. The third line is the availability of high quality intensive care for those that are seriously ill.Philip_Thompson said:
No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.FF43 said:
So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.Scott_xP said:
If our government says we assume those with mild symptoms don't have the Coronavirus we effectively bypass the first line of defence. It also makes the second line much less effective because mild cases are probably just as infectious as serious ones, but these won't be in quarantine. So we are relying on the third line of defence in a system that is likely to be overwhelmed, cf Italy and Hubei.
It may just be that we don't have the resources to test at the required level. Which is disappointing, especially as Korea is testing at ten times the rate we are. We are where we are, I guess. So we fall back on the second line of defence, but we are not really doing that either at the moment. The only form of containment we have in place right now is the government urging people to wash their hands.
None of this fills me with confidence.0 -
It's interesting to compare modelling epidemics and climate.YBarddCwsc said:
That is not correct. Yours is a fundamentally medievalist and anti-scientific outlook.ukpaul said:
Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.GideonWise said:
Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.ukpaul said:Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.
Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.
Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article
Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.
The modelling of epidemics is a mature science. It is much easier than modelling climate change, for example.
There is an abundance of data in a number of countries. The data are constraining.
So, it is not true that the government, or Whitty, have just "chosen to believe [something] at this point in time."
Both ultimately reduce to two parameters. For epidemics it is R0, the number of people each infected person passes the infection onto, and CFR, the case fatality rate, the number of infected people who will die. Climate modelling hinges on delta-F, the change in radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, and ECS, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, the amount of warming that will result from each unit of radiative forcing.
It is much easier to measure the two parameters for epidemics than for climate change - which is why much climate modelling allows those parameters to be an emergent property created by the model physics, rather than set by the modeller. Modelling epidemics in the same way as the climate would require modelling directly the interaction of the virus with the hosts immune system, etc.
However, there is another thing that both systems have in common. Our choices have an effect on the value of the parameters. We can choose how much radiative forcing perturbs the Earth's climate, and we can reduce the transmission rate by changing our behaviour.0 -
0
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My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale todayJohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:0 -
Waitrose was short of toilet paper and strong bread flour last Wednesday, had no problem finding both products in Tesco a mile away. How far it reflects smaller stock level in store, or rise in demand is open to question.JohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:
No signs of fist fights or trolley wars over last sun dried foccacia loaf.0 -
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?isam said:
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale todayJohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:0 -
This is an eloquently argued exposition of my position. I had a semi argument with my wife earlier, who is still rather relaxed about the whole thing.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).rural_voter said:More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.0 -
Volunteers paid £3,500 to be infected with coronavirus in UK lab
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/volunteers-paid-3500-infected-coronavirus-17888089#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare0 -
Toilet toll in Aldi?Jonathan said:
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?isam said:
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale todayJohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:0 -
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.0 -
Extremely worrying twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680331706675200
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/12366803338876682250 -
That sentence can be read in two ways. I read it in the wrong way, which was an order of magnitude more amusing than rationed olive gags.Big_G_NorthWales said:Volunteers paid £3,500 to be infected with coronavirus in UK lab
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/volunteers-paid-3500-infected-coronavirus-17888089#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare1 -
What isn't?Anabobazina said:0 -
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.0 -
They shake hands and pray together every morning?rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.0 -
10 confirmed cases in the DMV (District, Maryland, Virginia) metro area.
DC Public Health lab has the capacity to test 50 per day, VA 400, MD 1000 with plans to double by Friday. Private lab testing should come online this week too, cutting the wait time for results from 1 week (!!!) when CDC did it all, to a couple of hours to even less.
So we'll probably have surplus testing capacity by the end of the week, but it is way too late to be getting there.
I'll be at a National Defense University/Johns Hopkins workshop on Thursday, so might have more accurate data on the situation in the US after that.1 -
I just got the slightly sinking feeling we might be having a little bit of reverse psychology played on us.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, people make a big deal of the authoritarian nature of the Chinese response but by and large people *want* to reduce their risk. This is an unusual case where the irrational fear response (scared of an unusual but new risk with, so far, a low base rate) serves the common good (a strong reaction everywhere reduces spread in the crucial few cases where it counts).rural_voter said:More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
What you need is for the government to take a lead. Japan has shut down nearly all events with no coercion, and got millions of people working from home with just a recommendation. People want to do this, but they don't want to look like they're panicking or not taking their jobs seriously.
The countries like Britain that refuse to do the things that are working in east Asia will just end up doing far more disruptive things when the problem is worse.
CMO: you know, we might have tell all mild fevers to self isolate in 10-14 days time.
People: Wtaf, do it NOW!! (All exit to self isolate)0 -
Just been reminded that I failed to replenish stock of black olives.rottenborough said:0 -
The 320,000 sample - without knowing the corresponding known infection rate for the area - doesn't tell you much. If it was an area with 5,000 known cases, and they found another 1,600, well that's quite a lot.Chameleon said:Extremely worrying twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680331706675200
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680333887668225
If it was one with 50,000, then it's obviously not.0 -
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.0 -
-
Sure.TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
But wouldn't they choose the sitting Vice President rather that someone else?
It's simply the path of least resistance.0 -
-
TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
Either case would seem to give the Establishment GOP greater relative influence than the current primary process does, so someone more centrist who'd presumably normally have a tough time getting through the primary process might have more chance via this route.
0 -
I think it's quite inspiring. It shows what you can do if you put energy behind a policy. I'm sure there are things we can learn from this without having to go all police state.
.Chameleon said:Extremely worrying twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680331706675200
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/12366803338876682251 -
Any odds on Mitt Romney?rcs1000 said:
Sure.TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
But wouldn't they choose the sitting Vice President rather that someone else?
It's simply the path of least resistance.0 -
Jeb Bush it is then.TimT said:TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
Either case would seem to give the Establishment GOP greater relative influence than the current primary process does, so someone more centrist who'd presumably normally have a tough time getting through the primary process might have more chance via this route.0 -
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_09/coronavirus-l-estensione-tutta-italia-restrizioni-spostamenti-solo-comprovati-motivi-salute-o-lavoro-ddea9980-623d-11ea-9897-5c6f48cf812d.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
The government is ready to extend to the whole of Italy the measures launched in the night between Saturday and Sunday for Lombardy and 14 provinces: it will be possible to move only for "proven work needs or situations of need" or "health reasons".
From the signing of the decree - which according to sources consulted by the Corriere will take place in the next few hours - anyone moving from one municipality to another must have a justification and submit a self-certification for control. The procedures for self-certifying the reasonableness of one's move have been defined on Monday: a form is required (download it here) to be presented at the time of the check. Those who cannot download and print it can copy the text and take the declaration with them. Those who have to make the same move can use a single form specifying that it is a fixed commitment. The same applies also to those who have family needs that are repeated daily or at fixed intervals and can therefore indicate the frequency of the trips without the need to use different forms.
0 -
0
-
-
Why wouldn't normal personal ambition and brutal politics not pertain? All the vultures would be eying their chances, surely?rcs1000 said:
Sure.TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
But wouldn't they choose the sitting Vice President rather that someone else?
It's simply the path of least resistance.0 -
Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.1
-
I took a pic!Jonathan said:
Are you counting toilet toll in Aldi?isam said:
My local Aldi had about 800 packets of toilet roll for sale todayJohnLilburne said:
I was pleased to find my local branch was still stocked with coffee filters, would have hated to have been unable to make coffee on my return from Cyprus next week.dr_spyn said:
0 -
Again, a nice warning period before implementation.Chameleon said:https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_09/coronavirus-l-estensione-tutta-italia-restrizioni-spostamenti-solo-comprovati-motivi-salute-o-lavoro-ddea9980-623d-11ea-9897-5c6f48cf812d.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
The government is ready to extend to the whole of Italy the measures launched in the night between Saturday and Sunday for Lombardy and 14 provinces: it will be possible to move only for "proven work needs or situations of need" or "health reasons".
From the signing of the decree - which according to sources consulted by the Corriere will take place in the next few hours - anyone moving from one municipality to another must have a justification and submit a self-certification for control. The procedures for self-certifying the reasonableness of one's move have been defined on Monday: a form is required (download it here) to be presented at the time of the check. Those who cannot download and print it can copy the text and take the declaration with them. Those who have to make the same move can use a single form specifying that it is a fixed commitment. The same applies also to those who have family needs that are repeated daily or at fixed intervals and can therefore indicate the frequency of the trips without the need to use different forms.0 -
Sorry to hear that. Always hard.Luckyguy1983 said:Had my Mum and Dad's much beloved family pooch put down today. Me and Mum stayed with her, Dad couldn't do it. Not been the best day. Apologies if I've been tetchier than usual.
1 -
My son has just 'whats app' me to say that he is having difficulty obtaining wedding insurance for 22nd August0
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I fear we (the West) might be making a serious strategic mistake here based on some faulty baseline assumptions.
The basic assumption which pervades the whole strategy is that contact tracing and hand washing is the only serious containment measure.
The view seems to be that serious lockdown can only ever be used to mitigate the effects once the virus has taken hold. This view seems to be based on the fact that the costs of lockdown are too high for containment and should only be used once the virus has definitely taken off.
But..
The WORLD is choosing to lock down NOW. So the costs of lockdown are there anyway, they are baked in everywhere. So we are going to bear the costs but never reap the benefits.
0 -
I hear whats app is a more modern form of the telegram. It'll never catch on.Big_G_NorthWales said:My son has just 'whats app' me to say that he is having difficulty obtaining wedding insurance for 22nd August
0 -
Does the insurance company know something about his fiancee?Big_G_NorthWales said:My son has just 'whats app' me to say that he is having difficulty obtaining wedding insurance for 22nd August
0 -
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
Jeb Bush it is then.TimT said:TimT said:
If the Republican nominee were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by (re)convening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote.rcs1000 said:
If Trump succumbs (not necessarily death, but -say- getting seriously sick), then why wouldn't Pence be the nominee?rottenborough said:
I am tempted to say what I think, but I think some people may think of less of me.TheScreamingEagles said:Holy fucksticks
https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1237107093548740608
So, I will only say Nikki Haley is 95 for GOP nominee.
Either case would seem to give the Establishment GOP greater relative influence than the current primary process does, so someone more centrist who'd presumably normally have a tough time getting through the primary process might have more chance via this route.0
