politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders trailing by 22% in Michigan – a state where he beat Hi

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Andrew said:

Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.

So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.

Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.

Recent doubling times =
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)

All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)

UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.


More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.

No way China would run out of kits. They ramped up total production of masks something crazy in the space of week or two, so absolutely no way they wouldn't be able to do the same with testing kits.

Now are the Chinese massaging the figures, to be able to pronounce the great Chinese state has won the battle, I think that is definitely possible. But if they still have 10,000s of new cases, we would be seeing footage again of chaos.

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1237026444703825921?s=20

Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?

Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.

Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.

Dream Dream Dream , all I do is Dream

You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

Touche

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Andrew said:

Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.

So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.

Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.

Recent doubling times =
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)

All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)

UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.


More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.

The rate of infection per million in SK and Italy is almost 3x the rate in China. SK in particular has done pretty much everything that China did. That is a remarkable difference. The numbers in Wuhan are right up with SK and Italy. The numbers in the other Chinese provinces are ...not. Is it possible that incredibly strong action limited the spread of this virus in this way? Maybe. Likely? No.

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1237026444703825921?s=20

Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?

Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.

Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.

Dream Dream Dream , all I do is Dream

You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

You may say I'm a screamer, but Howard Dean isn't the only one!

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

I work with a Chinese lady - she has lost family from this back in China.

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Andrew said:

Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.

So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.

Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.

Recent doubling times =
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)

All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)

UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.


More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -

'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'

Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.

I do. Occam's razor, there's no other evidence they've stopped and the Chinese running out of kits and being unable to produce more seems unlikely.

Is there evidence of ongoing widespread testing in China?

The Chinese have shown an authoritarian and concentrated desire to keep this stamped out so yes I think its reasonable to believe they are doing so.

A belief is one thing, evidence is another.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.

Triage.

And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.

“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.


https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/99428/coronavirus-belgium-enters-enhanced-phase-2-covid-19-risk-management-group-rmg/

I have no issue with the last paragraph. That is clinical sense

Triage happens all the time.

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.

Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.

Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.

Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.

Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article

Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1237071985928220674

So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.

Triage.

And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.

“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.


https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/99428/coronavirus-belgium-enters-enhanced-phase-2-covid-19-risk-management-group-rmg/

I have no issue with the last paragraph. That is clinical sense

Triage happens all the time.

It happened with my sister

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.

Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.

Firstly, do we believe the Chinese numbers? Secondly, it was the governments central estimate, at least last week. My understanding is that the assumption was based on a much lower death rate of something like 0.2% with 50m catching it but 90%+ not being particularly affected.

FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

As was discussed - quite heatedly - on here last night. The Italians are having to choose who to treat.

Triage.

And age is a factor. The younger are more favoured.

“If a person between 80 and 95 years old has severe respiratory failure, it’s likely we will not go ahead. If they have multi-organ failure, with more than two or three vital organs, it means that their mortality rate is 100%,” he added.


https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/99428/coronavirus-belgium-enters-enhanced-phase-2-covid-19-risk-management-group-rmg/

I have no issue with the last paragraph. That is clinical sense

And where does it say the younger are more favoured.

Unless you have a link to that I think you should declare it as yet another one of your own, unqualified, opinions

I think you would find that that multiple organ failure in 80-95 year olds is pretty fatal even if you have all the equipment and time in the world.

Philip_Thompson said:

What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?

Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.

Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.

What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.

Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid 19, has today said the Government should move from the contain phase to the delay phase.

Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-aggressive-action-stop-spreading-a4382176.html

FF43 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1237071985928220674

So what they are saying they are not going to test for Coronavirus either now or later but the assumption now is that people with flu like symptoms now don't have the virus but later they will due to the spread. This means no actual control until the disease is rampant and doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

No that's not what they're saying. They're doing over a thousand tests per day.

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

This is by far the worst day for deaths to date. At least on official figures.

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?

Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.

Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.

What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.

Dr David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on Covid 19, has today said the Government should move from the contain phase to the delay phase.

Stewart has previous experience dealing with Ebola

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-aggressive-action-stop-spreading-a4382176.html

Stewart is not medically qualified

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

DavidL said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.

Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.

You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.

I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.

The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.

I don’t disagree with that. Feels a bit like the phoney war.

The chilling thing for me, when I thought about it, was that on these projected numbers we will all have close friends or family who get very sick or die.

Indeed. 100k is looking quite seriously optimistic now unless there is a real breakthrough with existing anti-virals. Some positive noises out of China on that.

Where does the 100K come from given China has had it for months with a gazillion times the population and they are only just at 3000. Why should it be thousands and thousands times worse in the UK.

Firstly, do we believe the Chinese numbers? Secondly, it was the governments central estimate, at least last week. My understanding is that the assumption was based on a much lower death rate of something like 0.2% with 50m catching it but 90%+ not being particularly affected.

FWIW I think 50m is way too high. And 0.2% is way too low.

I agree. If this becomes a big outbreak times the latter figure by a factor of 25. Halve to fifth the former figure.

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1236966932773036038?s=20

ukpaul said:

Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.

Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.

Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article

Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.

Welcome back Paul. A new old name here.

Yep, children appear to be the ultimate asymptomatic carrier.

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

Panic will not resolve the issue. I am pleased we have medics who know their subject

GideonWise said:

Sandpit said:

GideonWise said:

Sandpit said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

ttps://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1237064877291851776?s=20
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1237059251983593472?s=20

What a total and utter twat.

Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.

I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.

Otherwise he is a prat.

There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.

Twat.

Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.

Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.

There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.

Of course, but so far in the U.K. the scientists and the ministers are speaking from the same page, at the same press conferences.

Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.

I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.

Yes you are right regarding the press pack.

But my point is that there are bits that are science which include modelling the epidemiology of the virus and the likely effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. You might also consider the plotting of costs a science.

The ultimate decision depends on the values of the decision-makers presented with the evidence and how they choose to make a trade-off. There can also be differences in interpretation of the evidence. Scrutiny of this process is appropriate particularly if the preferences of those decision-makers does not align with wider society.

It’s of course fair to disagree with decisions made by politicians (although it seems clear that the politicians in the UK are being very much led by the scientists) - but, at a time of genuine crisis, that criticism needs to be done in much more constructive manner than has been displayed by Mr Stewart and Mr Farage today.

If we had an Ed Miliband opposition leader today, if would have made sense for the PM to involve him in the process, meetings and press conferences, presenting a united front on this issue and seeking to de-politicise it.

That’s a lot more difficult when we have Corbyn, who’s standing down, and a leadership election to replace him in the background, alongside lots of other high-profile elections in May.

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

eadric said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.

I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.

But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.

She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.

However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.

A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS

I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.

Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?

We must hope so.

Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?

Floater said:

Remember all that hot air wasted on how bad Brexit was going to be.

Innocent days .....

Brexit - more manageable than The Plague.

Neither in Project Fear nor on the Bus.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.

Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?

We must hope so.

Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?

Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.

There's no reason to laugh at them, even if they're wrong.
And I strongly believe them to be wrong.

NickPalmer said:

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1237049146101633024?s=21

Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.

'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?

At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.

Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?

We must hope so.

The number of deaths indicates infections a week or two ago. Could be deceptive.

Similarly, for tests I would wait for Wednesdays figures. These are 48 hours to be complete, and the number of tests reduces markedly at Le Weekend as it does here.

No need for either panic or euphoria, what is needed is stoic endurance and fortitude.

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

eadric said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.

I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.

But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.

She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.

However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.

A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS

I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.

https://www.vox.com/2019/7/16/20694598/joe-biden-health-care-plan-public-option

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

eadric said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if it’s not inconceivable that Hillary overtakes Sanders in the betting later this week.

I really don't like Hillary, she irritates me in a way I cannot define.

But if were an American given the choice of Trump, Biden, Sanders - or Hillary, I'd jump at the chance of a first female president.

She is sane, boring, averagely competent, and centrist, and is not quite as likely to die as Sanders or Biden. All quite appealing right now, I'd have thought.

However Sanders could have had a unique opportunity to shift America's healthcare. All water under the bridge now I expect, as a centrist Democrat will only practise limited mitigation rather than solution of the American healthcare problem.

A public option rather than Medicare for all is probably the best solution, the former closer to German public insurance healthcare rather thsn UK taxpayer funder single payer NHS

I doubt that the Democrats under Hilary, Biden or Buttigieg will even pass that.

https://www.vox.com/2019/7/16/20694598/joe-biden-health-care-plan-public-option

Without an external movement to match the crisis like Sanders', I expect the vested interests to reassert themselves - even in this crisis. The corrupting of the american political system by special interests runs incredibly deep.

From Devon to London and pottering around central London and the Palace of Westminster, I have seen precisely ONE person in a mask.

A young Asian lass.

Westminster was still full of groups of young foreigners. Which is....bold.

Jonathan said:

ukpaul said:

GideonWise said:

ukpaul said:

Seems like a lifetime since I last posted on here, Been lurking a bit recently though, lots of old names, lots of new names.

Anyway, I just want to back Stewart on the area that affects me mostly, to say that he probably does know the science and seems to be, in at least this regard, ahead of the government.

Initial studies said that children were not much affected by the virus and were not spreading it to any great degree. More recent evidence coming out of China (Shenzhen) has shown that this has changed, however, so that children are most definitely spreading it, likely often without much in the way of symptoms.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article

Essentially they are primed to catch it from relatives, go to school, infect others and, before anyone know it, pass it to their own family. Keeping them all at home at least stops the last of those and keeps it within initial families. I hope that findings like this are acted upon before its too late.

Different evidence, different interpretations, different trade-offs, different decisions.

Exactly. There is nothing that can be called ‘the science’, given that what we know is rapidly changing. Anything the government is doing is based on what they, or Whitty, has chosen to believe at this point in time.

Some science...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x

I take ACE inhibitors for hypertension (have done for maybe fifteen years), unfortunately the ACE2 receptors are the ones that appear to be the entry point for that virus. Having that condition is making me pretty nervous at the moment (my blood pressure is often controlled but rising over the last month or so).

eadric said:

Ah, some more deaths in France.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


That takes the resolved Case Fatality Ratio up to 71%. Fully 7 out of 10 are dying. Which makes the Black Death look like a mild sniffle.

HOWEVER, look at their critical case percentage: just 2% are in ICU.

What the F is going on? How can this virus vary so much from country to country, or is it just a matter of different health systems using different criteria?

The resolved CFR sounds like an extremely dubious statistic. Those who have a bad bout die quickly and hence resolve quickly. Most will take 14-days if not more to 'recover'. Hence the statistic is totally biased in the short-term towards fatalities.

BluestBlue said:

NickPalmer said:

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1237049146101633024?s=21

Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.

'Prince Andrew has now completely closed the door'?

At least somebody's taking self-isolation seriously...

We need to offer Trump a ‘prisoner exchange’ between Andrew and Anne Sacoolas.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.

Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?

We must hope so.

Or France tightening their testing criteria to no longer test mild cases?

Congrats! You have officially taken over my position as PB's Coronavirus Pessimist-in-Residence. Enjoy the role: it comes with much criticism, but at least you get to laugh, darkly, at the flailing Don't Panickers, as they finally succumb to reality.

I have to say, even by your standards, this is quite an overreaction to France's cases not soaring, which is likely largely the case because of the weekend. Regardless, their neighbours to the south, east, and north are all increasing rapidly, so even if they have somehow contained this it won't last for long. Bar a few nations, this isn't a war that can be won on a national level.

But that's actually not true. Quite a few nations have mastered this (so far). All of them in Asia.

This bitch of a bug can be beat, even on a national level. We just need to wise up. Quickly!

Boris Johnson going from saying "handshaking is fine, ho ho ho" (clearly stupid and wrong) to saying "er, handshaking is probably not wise" (obviously correct) does not entirely fill me with confidence.

"My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are never disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters!"

Foxy said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Floater said:

203 new cases / 11 deaths in France


428 / 11 Spain

Deaths are skyrocketing. Things seem to be ramping up, we're at start of the slope.

I believe the number of new cases in France, today, was actually a little lower.

Still shooting up - but lower. Maybe the first sign of containment working?

We must hope so.

The number of deaths indicates infections a week or two ago. Could be deceptive.

Similarly, for tests I would wait for Wednesdays figures. These are 48 hours to be complete, and the number of tests reduces markedly at Le Weekend as it does here.

No need for either panic or euphoria, what is needed is stoic endurance and fortitude.

Well said Foxy and you are qualified unlike the doom and gloom merchants

Head of New York airports tests positive. When it starts hitting senior officials Goverment members and ministers will start treating this seriously on a personal level, as they will probably all be in meetings together.

alex_ said:

Head of New York airports tests positive. When it starts hitting senior officials Goverment members and ministers will start treating this seriously on a personal level, as they will probably all be in meetings together.

He works in my office building. It's being closed tomorrow for a deep clean and we've all been told to WFH tomorrow. (I'm already doing so under our "WFH if you feel concerned" as I'm in multiple higher-risk groups.

Casino_Royale said:

There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.

International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.

Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.

Year round equality.

The horror.

Casino_Royale said:

There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.

International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.

Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.

My son’s school has had its Poppy Day mural up since October.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1237092718100299778
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1237093123878260738

He seems to have acted entirely in keeping with his known character, I'm not sure why they would be surprised. He's not some ruthlessly controlled man playing at being an uncontrolled man.

Mysticrose said:

This is what we should have done. Stop ALL entries to the UK until quarantined. No exceptions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51809818

We had the golden opportunity: the fortress island the Brexiteers dreamed of and they didn't seize their moment.

Ironically, it turns out the Tory Government isn't the junta of ruthless authoritarians some voters either feared or hoped for...

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1237092718100299778

Another example, of political journalists this time, not knowing when to STFU.

The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.

Getting a bit scary financially now, I have liquidated my peer to peer lending, Zopa and Ratesetter, both are unprotected, although they do have reserve plans in place. I took a small loss, but the cash is now in a protected account.
I took the view that if this gets serious then many borrowers will be unable to repay and the reserve fund arrangements will be inadequate.
Who knows, but I feel a bit safer now, also stopped my SIPP drawdown, I do not need it, so I will leave it to recover for my children, no point in selling shares at such a low.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1237092718100299778

Another example, of political journalists this time, not knowing when to STFU.

The general public are never going to take this seriously, if the usual political backbiting continues in the background.

Agreed. I can't stand these 'insider' takes.

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

There seems to be some scope creep (woke creep?) on the anointed days at the moment.

International Women’s Day now seems to go on for a full week (with all companies noisily proclaim their celebration of it, including mine) and Pride now doesn’t seem far off being a year round thing now with universal flags, lanyards and events.

Of course, it’s impossible to criticise without seeming like a bigot so I wonder if (like how the Iowa caucus ended up where it did, with state after state trying to outbid each other to be first in the nomination race) we’ll simply end up with it all being the new status quo.

Year round equality.

The horror.

Congratulations on missing (wilfully) the point entirely, and entirely predictably.

For your comment to be true it would need to be the case that equality only happened on those two days, and didn’t happen on any other day of the year.

That is palpably not the case. Almost all companies now have very well developed diversity and equality policies, and it’s now also the law, so what these events do to “advance” either cause is marginal. Instead they are basically about people and companies grandstanding to earn a bit of kudos.

The trouble is that when you grandstand constantly it ceases to become grandstanding at all: it just becomes meaningless and background noise.

And doesn’t change a thing.