That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
Exactly we need the government to say it because otherwise most employers simply won't want to start implementing those measures. We are still not allowed to work from home and it is already far worse in France than the UK so far. Too many senior people in denial. Lions led by ostriches as it were.
While it's true that many can't work from home, even for those that must go into work it is an advantage for others to stay home, fewer people around means less risk of spreading it.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
Watching the PM press conference, you know the press went mental over Gove claims of not listening / trusting experts....well the press pack have all stood up and basically said you are wrong aren't you, look at Italy.
On Topic : Biden is a better politician than Hillary - she has very poor skills in elective politics. So he (and the people round him) has done the underlying spadework, relentlessly. The momentum building behind him, as the moderate candidate, is being utilised.
Is it fair to say that in the US organising the electoral support team is a much more important characteristic of the candidate than in the UK, where this responsibility lies more with the party?
Well, yes. It's a corollary of the difference between a presidential style system and parliamentary democracy, surely?
According to this anecdote from Shanghai, the compliance with voluntary quarantining was extraordinary: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/amazing-report-from-shanghai ...Nearly every restaurant/bar/shop shut down for a month. Convenience and grocery stores allowed to remain open and some large food chains for delivery only, but that’s it. No choice in the matter. No “keep the shades and noise down”. No “just let the workers come in to do some cleaning/upkeep”. Sticker/seal over your door, you have no choice in being closed. Now they are slowly coming back online. First, a week of delivery only, and now “fully” open but with very strict restrictions on number of patrons at a time, hours of operation, etc. Even so, you could be shut down for the day with no warning for any perceived issue by patrolling govt workers.
– All residents of Shanghai had to use an app to register their travel back to Shanghai after the new year. Regardless of symptoms or issues, you had to register. This data was also shared/coordinated with many companies and their HR teams to plan returning to the office as well. Everyone registered without thinking. Proactive compliance from the public rather than the govt having to reach out/chase people down once they found a case on a flight/train. My entire company of 400+ had their data in within 24 hours.
– Nearly every apartment complex/building with temp checks at the gate and little to no access for non-residents. I live in a neighborhood of about 50 buildings, it’s generally open to all. Now you need to show a residency card to get in and only one of the 4 entrances is open. Strangely, completely open to delivery guys on scooters, but that’s it.
– All schools still shut down going on 6 weeks with no end in sight. They were “back to school” after a few weeks through e-learning, but all those kids are home. Their parents didn’t have anywhere to go, but if/when they do, it will be a problem.
– Huge, HUGE stigma on going out at all, even to just take a walk, though that’s beginning to relax. Regardless of whether we were allowed to, no one was leaving their apartments....
It amazing what people will do when they know the state watches their every move and will at best get a gold star removed from their social credit score to at worst sent to a labour camp.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Yes, as a Brit who lived in Germany for 10 years, this was very apparent to me. Although medical treatment in Germany is well-funded, with shiny equipment and little to no wait for treatment, its organisation is massively bureaucratic compared to the run-on-a-shoestring but monolithic NHS. This is perhaps one reason why Germany is struggling to contain the epidemic, but is excellent at treating those that have it while, in the UK, the opposite is likely to be the case.
I assume that your premise that "Germany is struggling to contain the epidemic" is derived from the discrepancy in the reported number of positive tests. The DoH has been reporting over the last days that roughly 1.5k tests per day were performed in the UK. The RKI had announced some days ago that the test capacity had been expanded to 12k tests per day. I'm quite certain that the true number of cases will be higher than the number of identified ones in Germany. I'm not certain that the UK is less struggling to contain the spread in real terms.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
I am trying to think why this might be. Is it that Italy had a lot of "low lying fruit" (I apologise in advance for these analogies) of elderly people who didn't need much of an infection to carry them off and those that are left are generally healthier and have much better prospects of survival? The 10% indicates that their death rate should fall sharply although it is hard to imagine it being anything other than very, very high. It's also possible, of course, that some of those with mild symptoms might deteriorate.
My heart goes out to those Italian doctors, it really does.
Still saying its not very important compared to washing hands.
I told you his earlier advice was bollocks and yet you were determined to believe it. You have a strange, touchingly naive faith in the infallibility of this government.
He claimed this morning that the NHS was well placed versus other countries to handle an ICU bed shortage. When questioned specifically why that was the case he said because the 'NHS is well funded'.
He's basically just a party apparatchik. I don't understand why he has any credibility on this site.
Is it just me or Boris clearly has seen the full extent of the modelling and it is very grim. No wiff waff gags, it is 100% grown up Boris. He wants to be Churchill, well he is going to find out if he can do it.
On Topic : Biden is a better politician than Hillary - she has very poor skills in elective politics. So he (and the people round him) has done the underlying spadework, relentlessly. The momentum building behind him, as the moderate candidate, is being utilised.
Is it fair to say that in the US organising the electoral support team is a much more important characteristic of the candidate than in the UK, where this responsibility lies more with the party?
Well, yes. It's a corollary of the difference between a presidential style system and parliamentary democracy, surely?
True. Hillary also has two terrible flaws as a candidate - not trusting anyone outside "her" group and having no in depth knowledge of "how it works". Relatives of mine in New York (Democrats since FDR etc) saw her come in as Senator, and demand that large swathes of the party infrastructure be turned over to her people. Alot of deep knowledge was removed and replaced with new people, often on inflated salaries. She managed to p**s off a very large number of people in the NY party by doing this.
The attempted takeover of the national party was on similar lines. And there her lack of understanding of where to campaign meant she over-ruled the genuine experts. Including Bill.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Both centralised and decentralised systems have their distinct advantages and disadvantages to them.
I agree. However, I think that many more people in Britain are aware of the positves and negatives of the British system are than Germans are of the German system.
I would agree that health care has been (somewhat) less politisised in Germany in the recent past. That would explain a lesser degree of awareness of problems.
While putting out a statement is admittedly overkill he is as entitled to air his views online as anyone on here. Presumably you post on here with the hope someone will care what you think?
Watching the PM press conference, you know the press went mental over Gove claims of not listening / trusting experts....well the press pack have all stood up and basically said you are wrong aren't you, look at Italy.
In business, the number of times I have watched as some lawyer has said "Well, that is the technical advice. But I *feel*..."
Sometimes I've wished I had deep anonymised share trading set up on my mobile. So I can short, then and there. But that would be criminal.
Further - it is interesting to see how people think that science is a pick and mix counter. Believe in Global Warming and Ley lines. Want the government to follow the best advice and also whatever they think will work....
I expect the number is actually greater than 38 thousand.
I was admitted to hospital last weekend with pneumonia, I told staff I had recently been to Italy, as well as Armenia and UAE in the last 21 days. My wife is also from Venice and had visited there early Feb. Upon hearing this, they told me to wait outside the hospital, this was about 2am and around - 3 celcius. They said it was OK after about 10 minutes and brought me back in. 30 minutes or so later I was asked to wait outside the hospital again until being given the all clear that I could come back in. Once again, about an hour later I was asked to wait outside whilst another nurse was having a conversation on a phone to someone I presume higher up, again given the all clear. I asked to be tested but was refused, I then left as it was approaching 7am. I then visited my gp, diagnosed with pneumonia after an x Ray on my chest and given a course of steroids.
After one week I do feel better but still not 100 percent. I am in my early 30s and very fit. I don't believe I have corona virus but do believe I should have been tested given recent travel history and symptons.
There must be thousands of cases similar to myself plus plenty more with mild symptons who refuse to visit their gp.
Ive took a weeks unpaid leave and I'm staying at my uncles empty house in Lancashire, I've done my best to self contain until I feel 100 percent.
Is it just me or Boris clearly has seen the full extent of the modelling and it is very grim. No wiff waff gags, it is 100% grown up Boris. He wants to be Churchill, well he is going to find out if he can do it.
I don't like Boris, but he has always had the ability to get serious and not play the buffoon or showman when he wants.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
You are the one whose actions are encouraging people to underplay the issue, and I don't believe you are unable to see that, meaning you're doing it on purpose. If you're not, why act in a way that you can surely see is counter productive?
I expect the number is actually greater than 38 thousand.
I was admitted to hospital last weekend with pneumonia, I told staff I had recently been to Italy, as well as Armenia and UAE in the last 21 days. My wife is also from Venice and had visited there early Feb. Upon hearing this, they told me to wait outside the hospital, this was about 2am and around - 3 celcius. They said it was OK after about 10 minutes and brought me back in. 30 minutes or so later I was asked to wait outside the hospital again until being given the all clear that I could come back in. Once again, about an hour later I was asked to wait outside whilst another nurse was having a conversation on a phone to someone I presume higher up, again given the all clear. I asked to be tested but was refused, I then left as it was approaching 7am. I then visited my gp, diagnosed with pneumonia after an x Ray on my chest and given a course of steroids.
After one week I do feel better but still not 100 percent. I am in my early 30s and very fit. I don't believe I have corona virus but do believe I should have been tested given recent travel history and symptons.
There must be thousands of cases similar to myself plus plenty more with mild symptons who refuse to visit their gp.
Ive took a weeks unpaid leave and I'm staying at my uncles empty house in Lancashire, I've done my best to self contain until I feel 100 percent.
Very much hope you are feeling better soon. Excellent civic duty locking yourself away like that. Kudos.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
I have thought about this some more and Boris sort of let the cat out of the bag when he talked about what psychologists had been telling him.
I think this is all about managed approach to step us towards lock down, rather than telling us to all get in our homes tomorrow and not move (like they did in Italy and caused people to rush to 4 corners of the land).
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
I am trying to think why this might be. Is it that Italy had a lot of "low lying fruit" (I apologise in advance for these analogies) of elderly people who didn't need much of an infection to carry them off and those that are left are generally healthier and have much better prospects of survival? The 10% indicates that their death rate should fall sharply although it is hard to imagine it being anything other than very, very high. It's also possible, of course, that some of those with mild symptoms might deteriorate.
My heart goes out to those Italian doctors, it really does.
There are some really grim videos coming out of Italy now - which, of course, is exactly what happened in Wuhan, and then Iran.
The videos will trigger the panic. The panic and anger will quickly focus in on the government.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
Things are clearly very bad in Italy - poor people. I'm a great lover of Italian culture. It looks they urgently need a change of approach, if that's possible. A lot of their measures seem to be measures in name only.
It amazing what people will do when they know the state watches their every move and will at best get a gold star removed from their social credit score to at worst sent to a labour camp.
Indeed. I wasn't suggesting we adopt their system, or approval of it. But it gives context to how they have moved the numbers on new infections.
I expect the number is actually greater than 38 thousand.
I was admitted to hospital last weekend with pneumonia, I told staff I had recently been to Italy, as well as Armenia and UAE in the last 21 days. My wife is also from Venice and had visited there early Feb. Upon hearing this, they told me to wait outside the hospital, this was about 2am and around - 3 celcius. They said it was OK after about 10 minutes and brought me back in. 30 minutes or so later I was asked to wait outside the hospital again until being given the all clear that I could come back in. Once again, about an hour later I was asked to wait outside whilst another nurse was having a conversation on a phone to someone I presume higher up, again given the all clear. I asked to be tested but was refused, I then left as it was approaching 7am. I then visited my gp, diagnosed with pneumonia after an x Ray on my chest and given a course of steroids.
After one week I do feel better but still not 100 percent. I am in my early 30s and very fit. I don't believe I have corona virus but do believe I should have been tested given recent travel history and symptons.
There must be thousands of cases similar to myself plus plenty more with mild symptons who refuse to visit their gp.
Ive took a weeks unpaid leave and I'm staying at my uncles empty house in Lancashire, I've done my best to self contain until I feel 100 percent.
Very much hope you are feeling better soon. Excellent civic duty locking yourself away like that. Kudos.
Thanks mate. I work on a very small team, 4 of which have very young children plus my close family are all 60+, so it would be selfish to put anyone at risk. Plenty of books to get through and studying Cheltenham form fills the time 😉
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
Even if they had announced schools would close next week (which I think they might end up doing anyway), it would have had some effect in preparing the public. And with the Easter holiday would provide a four week pause with the least disruption.
I thought the press conference today was very good - the press questions were fairly predictable insomuch as they showed clearly their inability to listen to a word any of the speakers said and then put out their soundbites regardless. The media want drama and a crisis. I suspect the public want reassurance now.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
Even if they had announced schools would close next week (which I think they might end up doing anyway), it would have had some effect in preparing the public. And with the Easter holiday would provide a four week pause with the least disruption.
Yes I agree. We need to show that things are in hand and being planned. Not everything needs to be done now but we need to show we are indeed ready to act and know what to do. Still, a couple of days should not matter too much.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
"getting close to Black Death levels" is not a phrase I ever expected to see on PB. And I for one find it a tad unsettling, but maybe that's just me.
I expected to see it in a thread header about the damage a No Deal Brexit would do to the country
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
I have thought about this some more and Boris sort of let the cat out of the bag when he talked about what psychologists had been telling him.
I think this is all about managed approach to step us towards lock down, rather than telling us to all get in our homes tomorrow and not move (like they did in Italy and caused people to rush to 4 corners of the land).
Surely the government should be gently preparing us for quarantine, so that people will gradually build up a small stock (14 days) of essentials at home. I've done this, but most of my friends are completely oblivious to such things. If quarantine is suddenly sprung on people, there will be panic buying like we've never seen before!
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
I do not see how second-guessing the government on its management of the crisis is helpful right now. We have to trust they’re getting it right. This is not the time for point-scoring.
The Fake News Boris clip is now trending on twitter. This is massively irresponsible.
It is. We need to trust the government on this. If we don’t it can only make matters worse. I think that the people advising UK politicians know what they’re talking about and I cannot imagine our politicians would try to second guess them.
I wish I could be as sanguine here in Spain where today´s figures are awful. True not where I live but I would certainly be considering travel restrictions to the costas from the north as Easter approaches. Otherwise the whole country could easily be inundated rapidly. The area I live contains a lot of holiday homes and the populations swell noticeably at holiday times.
The problem in Spain are the layers of national, regional and local responsibilities. They all have to be untied before concerted country-wide action can be taken. At a time like this you have to have central coordination.
This to a certain extent is a similar problem in Germany, because "health is a state matter". There is a national ministry of health, but they can only advise the states, and there is little coordination between hospitals. However the testing and recording of cases is being coordinated by a central organisation the Robert Koch Institute, which is about 1Km away from where I live.
The RKI is also responsible for issuing guidelines etc for controlling infectious diseases and has proven to be somewhat inadequate, especially in February, with poor guidelines, advice, and too narrow testing criterion. It's nearest equivalent in England is I suppose Public Health England, but Public Health England (which obviously has much wider responsibilities) has an annual budget of 4.5 billion GBP, whereas RKI seems to have around 80 million Euros (for a much larger population).
Doctors here have been dismissive of the RKI to me "It's mostly a bunch of people sitting in offices".
Health is a state matter, but it's even worse as local Gesundsheitsamts, which are a branch of local government, have responsibility in local areas, and as noted, do not coordinate well with hospitals, which are run by various organisations - many by either the Catholic or Evangelical churches. GPs tend to be individual practices, and ambulance services are run by other private organisations - Maltesers, Red Cross, The many University Clinics (=big hospitals) in the big cities are usually the places that should be best equipped to deal with coronavirus cases, but obviously have limited places available.
Towns have set up their own coronavirus hotlines, there is no national coronavirus hotline, although there is a general national phone number which is notoriously difficult to get through to. There are stories of people being given conflicting advice and being sent round in circles.
Very well explained. I don't think that the average German realises how much of a problem this is. The quality of treatment here is very good, but this tends to hide the some very real problems and a very uncoordinated and splintered system is one of them.
Both centralised and decentralised systems have their distinct advantages and disadvantages to them.
I agree. However, I think that many more people in Britain are aware of the positves and negatives of the British system are than Germans are of the German system.
I would agree that health care has been (somewhat) less politisised in Germany in the recent past. That would explain a lesser degree of awareness of problems.
Nye Bevan said when he set up the NHS that all decisions should land on the desk of the SoS. It's command and control and apparently politicians have never discussed devolving it, only argued whether it should be nationalised or privatised. Thatcher wanted to sell it off. I think the systems in Canada and Scandinavia are similar to the NHS but are a bit less centralised.
I'm finding it difficult to disagree with him. The government has been correctly measured and reassuring about this until now but I can't help thinking that today they have missed a step both in preparing the public for what is to come and in preparation.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
I have thought about this some more and Boris sort of let the cat out of the bag when he talked about what psychologists had been telling him.
I think this is all about managed approach to step us towards lock down, rather than telling us to all get in our homes tomorrow and not move (like they did in Italy and caused people to rush to 4 corners of the land).
It's a really tough gig, I don't deny that for a moment.
That's totally correct for lockdowns in people's homes - never leaving the door.
But pray tell, why would I get fatigue working from home thereby being able to avoid having to get on a train surrounded by coughers? Answer: I won't.
I just want some recommendation from government so I can start organising my meetings from home. Unfortunately I have to wait for widespread transmission for me to get that reassurance.
Likewise those with tickets to Italy needed advice from the government NOT to travel, thereby allowing them to get a refund on their tickets. But the advice has been slow in coming.
It is nonsensical and too much all-or-nothing.
You don't need government advice to work from home. If you're capable of doing so then do so. Its between you and your employer not the government. Many people aren't capable of working from home.
You don't think some sort of official advice will be helpful to people in his position then?
Exactly we need the government to say it because otherwise most employers simply won't want to start implementing those measures. We are still not allowed to work from home and it is already far worse in France than the UK so far. Too many senior people in denial. Lions led by ostriches as it were.
While it's true that many can't work from home, even for those that must go into work it is an advantage for others to stay home, fewer people around means less risk of spreading it.
Well this is it. I already work at home 4 days a week, so it would barely make a difference to me. But some people work for backward employers who don’t allow it unless they are told to do it. It is this group for whom government advice would be very useful.
You point about reducing total numbers by asking those who have the facility to do so to wfh is spot on of course.
Modena...the riot was yesterday. Now it has been settled down. 7 deaths, all among prisoners. Reported of being due to overdose after they stormed the nursery
2 more deaths for overdose also in Verona and Alessandria prisons as they stormed the nursery to take drugs during the confusion.
Pavia..riots yesterday. Reportedly they stole the keys from 2 guards (!). The 2 guards were held by prisoners for hours. Then left go. Now ordered restored.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
Of French cases 96% are in a mild condition on that chart and Black Death had up to an 80% Death Rate anyway
Yes, quite. The number of "closed but not dead" is a function of how long it takes to be completely cleared, which in turn is a function of how recently it started to spread. I think the useful stat is the proportion of dead to not dead/critical.
Modena...the riot was yesterday. Now it has been settled down. 7 deaths, all among prisoners. Reported of being due to overdose after they stormed the nursery
2 more deaths for overdose also in Verona and Alessandria prisons as they stormed the nursery to take drugs during the confusion.
Pavia..riots yesterday. Reportedly they stole the keys from 2 guards (!). The 2 guards were held by prisoners for hours. Then left go. Now ordered restored.
It amazing what people will do when they know the state watches their every move and will at best get a gold star removed from their social credit score to at worst sent to a labour camp.
Indeed. I wasn't suggesting we adopt their system, or approval of it. But it gives context to how they have moved the numbers on new infections.
It is sort of missing the elephant in the room though which is, time and time again, these types of diseases are originating in China and then causing worldwide chaos. India, with a similar population, does not seem to be the same laboratory for these respiratory issues as China does. A perhaps very stupid thing to say but China needs to get its act in order. If it wants itself the world to be open to it, it should start cracking down on practices that lead to this kind of outbreak. They would do it easily enough if the rule of the CCP was on the line.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
In the municipality next to mine (2000 inhabitants), 200 people ammassed in the church for a funeral last week, even if it was said to keep the 1 meter distance in public spaces. Mayor now ordering all of them to isolate themselves at home. Local priest: well, so many arrived, I didn't feel to send them back home, so I went on as usual
It amazing what people will do when they know the state watches their every move and will at best get a gold star removed from their social credit score to at worst sent to a labour camp.
Indeed. I wasn't suggesting we adopt their system, or approval of it. But it gives context to how they have moved the numbers on new infections.
It is sort of missing the elephant in the room though which is, time and time again, these types of diseases are originating in China and then causing worldwide chaos. India, with a similar population, does not seem to be the same laboratory for these respiratory issues as China does. A perhaps very stupid thing to say but China needs to get its act in order. If it wants itself the world to be open to it, it should start cracking down on practices that lead to this kind of outbreak. They would do it easily enough if the rule of the CCP was on the line.
I was thinking that in relation to the new normal of not assigning geographic designations to such diseases. Shouldn't they be shamed into cleaning up their act?
Am I the only one who has a whole list of things which I used to think where very important and no longer can be bothered to read about? Andrew is certainly on the list.
I mentioned before that the death rate in "closed" cases is surprisingly consistent at 6% and has been for 2 weeks now as the numbers become more and more statistically significant but I have just come across the Italian figure:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
If you look at France, which has a better health service, and if you examine THEIR closed cases, then this disease has a mortality rate of 64%, making it TWICE AS DEADLY AS THE BLACK DEATH.
So I think you should stop underplaying this disease, David. This is not "just like the Black Death", it's much worse than that.
Of French cases 96% are in a mild condition on that chart and Black Death had up to an 80% Death Rate anyway
Yes, quite. The number of "closed but not dead" is a function of how long it takes to be completely cleared, which in turn is a function of how recently it started to spread. I think the useful stat is the proportion of dead to not dead/critical.
Knowing the French government you probably not counted as dead until you have completed your Tax return.
Modena...the riot was yesterday. Now it has been settled down. 7 deaths, all among prisoners. Reported of being due to overdose after they stormed the nursery
2 more deaths for overdose also in Verona and Alessandria prisons as they stormed the nursery to take drugs during the confusion.
Pavia..riots yesterday. Reportedly they stole the keys from 2 guards (!). The 2 guards were held by prisoners for hours. Then left go. Now ordered restored.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.
The press conference was reasonable. Given that the situation in Italy seems disproportionately bad, though, perhaps one might have expected more specifically concerning travel to and from Italy ? Both warnings and measures.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
Yep. If the government was willfully ignoring the advice of the chief medical officer then the opposition should be raising hell. Sniping from the sidelines with what you think is best is not helpful.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
Maybe ponder the degree to which some of your own fragility could contribute to the very panic you worry about. I cannot believe you listened carefully enough to what the CSO and CMO actually said - particularly in response to questions.
Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?
Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.
Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.
Of course, but so far in the U.K. the scientists and the ministers are speaking from the same page, at the same press conferences.
Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.
I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Some of the Italian measures don't seem to have been very rigorously enforced, though. It doesn't seem clear whether some of these are failed measures or half-enacted measures.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
Maybe ponder the degree to which some of your own fragility could contribute to the very panic you worry about. I cannot believe you listened carefully enough to what the CSO and CMO actually said - particularly in response to questions.
I think that that would be giving me an importance that I simply do not have. I take the "fatigue" point. We cannot take the most extreme measures right now. But why are flights from Italy still arriving without people being quarantined? I mean, why is that an acceptable risk?
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
What fools like Stewart who want to ignore the CMO or CSO advice and shut down schools etc ignore is the Italians did that and it backfired terribly. Why would we ignore our own scientists and follow the failed policies of the Italians?
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Some of the Italian measures seem not to have been very rigorously enforced, though. It doesn't seem clear whether some of these are failed measures or half-enacted measures.
Leaking plans for a quarantine to ensure tens of thousands avoided it wasn't a particularly good moment, was it?
It amazing what people will do when they know the state watches their every move and will at best get a gold star removed from their social credit score to at worst sent to a labour camp.
Indeed. I wasn't suggesting we adopt their system, or approval of it. But it gives context to how they have moved the numbers on new infections.
It is sort of missing the elephant in the room though which is, time and time again, these types of diseases are originating in China and then causing worldwide chaos. India, with a similar population, does not seem to be the same laboratory for these respiratory issues as China does. A perhaps very stupid thing to say but China needs to get its act in order. If it wants itself the world to be open to it, it should start cracking down on practices that lead to this kind of outbreak. They would do it easily enough if the rule of the CCP was on the line.
I was thinking that in relation to the new normal of not assigning geographic designations to such diseases. Shouldn't they be shamed into cleaning up their act?
No matter what people are supposed to call it in a non-geographic manner, we all know of one brash American who’s going to be mentioning the Nasty China Virus every day between now and November!
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
So we should follow the scientific advice by not following the scientific advice?
And no-one has answered my vital questions about *what* we will be arming the Traffic Wardens with.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
So we should follow the scientific advice by not following the scientific advice?
And no-one has answered my vital questions about *what* we will be arming the Traffic Wardens with.
That's not what I said. The CMO and the CMS are experts in their fields and should be listened to. But they are not the government. The government needs to govern and put what they are advising into a bigger context.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
They had a guy on R5 yesterday who went to Italy, came back, tested positive and he was quite ill for 2-3 days. During the holiday, sickness and quarantine his wife was living with him in confined space and took no special precautions, and has tested negative.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Those most confident in the iceberg effect of COVID-19 are those that have dealt the least with it. Awylard's WHO China mission came to the opposite conclusion, it is extremely dangerous, but relatively hard to spread.
Fantastic news, who said a year wasn't long enough for negotiations?
Britain has learned a lot and is approaching these negotiations much smarter than they did the WA negotiations under May.
Also showing how true it was that Britain holds the cards. We're the ones who can frame what deal we want and us beating the EU to the punch like this is brilliant.
Dream Dream Dream , all I do is Dream
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.
Of course, but so far in the U.K. the scientists and the ministers are speaking from the same page, at the same press conferences.
Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.
I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.
Yes you are right regarding the press pack.
But my point is that there are bits that are science which include modelling the epidemiology of the virus and the likely effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. You might also consider the plotting of costs a science.
The ultimate decision depends on the values of the decision-makers presented with the evidence and how they choose to make a trade-off. There can also be differences in interpretation of the evidence. Scrutiny of this process is appropriate particularly if the preferences of those decision-makers does not align with wider society.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
I do. Occam's razor, there's no other evidence they've stopped and the Chinese running out of kits and being unable to produce more seems unlikely.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
I’ve been in these meetings over the years. There is nothing any of us will think of that hasn’t been considered, thought through, and debated. There will be more than one “right answer” in these circumstances, but our answer won’t be wrong. Ask yourself how many current or former public health experts are dissenting. It isn’t many.
The picture is changing very fast. The meeting this morning did not have the information from Italy that we have now. This is hard and I am not really being critical. I expect much bigger announcements on Wednesday.
Jeez, the Italians have gone from 888 to 9172 cases in 10 days.
So doubling about every 3 days. Eeesh.
Our numbers have gone up by 1.5 in last two days.
Recent doubling times = Italy ~3 days UK ~4 days Denmark similar (the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
Or they've run out of testing kits. I don't believe for a moment that new infections have almost entirely stopped in China.
I do. Occam's razor, there's no other evidence they've stopped and the Chinese running out of kits and being unable to produce more seems unlikely.
Is there evidence of ongoing widespread testing in China?
Sometimes, the best thing to do is accept that the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Scientific Adviser know what they are doing. We also know there are no political calculations involved because First Ministers from other parties are in COBR.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
You absolutely have to listen to what the CMO and CSA are telling you and make sure that everything you do is consistent with their advice. But you also need to think about the mood of the general public and peoples' reactions. If they feel the government is not on top of things we will see some genuine panic, and I don't mean a queue for bog roll.
So we should follow the scientific advice by not following the scientific advice?
And no-one has answered my vital questions about *what* we will be arming the Traffic Wardens with.
That's not what I said. The CMO and the CMS are experts in their fields and should be listened to. But they are not the government. The government needs to govern and put what they are advising into a bigger context.
By taking measures that are not actually doing anything positive, according to the actual experts with the actual data?
In case anyone wonders - it should be wooden furnitured SLRs for male traffic wardens. The plastic was notorious for being susceptible to chemicals. Sterlings for the ladies.
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
I agree. If he access to some modelling or data to support his contention, then fine.
Otherwise he is a prat.
There’s not an awful lot of references to modelling or scientific data in his statement, just a statement that he thinks the government are wrong and the political decisions need to be different to what the government scientists have been saying today.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
There is a science to the modelling and to the effectiveness of the interventions. But when you are trading off health versus social costs it is fundamentally a value judgement. One group of decision-makers might make one judgement, another could come to a different conclusion.
Of course, but so far in the U.K. the scientists and the ministers are speaking from the same page, at the same press conferences.
Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.
I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.
Yes you are right regarding the press pack.
But my point is that there are bits that are science which include modelling the epidemiology of the virus and the likely effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. You might also consider the plotting of costs a science.
The ultimate decision depends on the values of the decision-makers presented with the evidence and how they choose to make a trade-off. There can also be differences in interpretation of the evidence. Scrutiny of this process is appropriate particularly if the preferences of those decision-makers does not align with wider society.
Regarding trade offs and interpretation of evidence, its very like the economics of Brexit and the way certain individuals wanted to ignore the advice of 'experts from organisations with three letter acronyms in their names'
Comments
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237026129032040448?s=20
While it's true that many can't work from home, even for those that must go into work it is an advantage for others to stay home, fewer people around means less risk of spreading it.
37% of closed cases have ended in death. That's getting close to Black death levels. Weirdly, their percentage of active cases in a serious condition is much, much lower, below average in fact, at 10%
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/amazing-report-from-shanghai
...Nearly every restaurant/bar/shop shut down for a month. Convenience and grocery stores allowed to remain open and some large food chains for delivery only, but that’s it. No choice in the matter. No “keep the shades and noise down”. No “just let the workers come in to do some cleaning/upkeep”. Sticker/seal over your door, you have no choice in being closed. Now they are slowly coming back online. First, a week of delivery only, and now “fully” open but with very strict restrictions on number of patrons at a time, hours of operation, etc. Even so, you could be shut down for the day with no warning for any perceived issue by patrolling govt workers.
– All residents of Shanghai had to use an app to register their travel back to Shanghai after the new year. Regardless of symptoms or issues, you had to register. This data was also shared/coordinated with many companies and their HR teams to plan returning to the office as well. Everyone registered without thinking. Proactive compliance from the public rather than the govt having to reach out/chase people down once they found a case on a flight/train. My entire company of 400+ had their data in within 24 hours.
– Nearly every apartment complex/building with temp checks at the gate and little to no access for non-residents. I live in a neighborhood of about 50 buildings, it’s generally open to all. Now you need to show a residency card to get in and only one of the 4 entrances is open. Strangely, completely open to delivery guys on scooters, but that’s it.
– All schools still shut down going on 6 weeks with no end in sight. They were “back to school” after a few weeks through e-learning, but all those kids are home. Their parents didn’t have anywhere to go, but if/when they do, it will be a problem.
– Huge, HUGE stigma on going out at all, even to just take a walk, though that’s beginning to relax. Regardless of whether we were allowed to, no one was leaving their apartments....
The DoH has been reporting over the last days that roughly 1.5k tests per day were performed in the UK.
The RKI had announced some days ago that the test capacity had been expanded to 12k tests per day.
I'm quite certain that the true number of cases will be higher than the number of identified ones in Germany.
I'm not certain that the UK is less struggling to contain the spread in real terms.
My heart goes out to those Italian doctors, it really does.
The attempted takeover of the national party was on similar lines. And there her lack of understanding of where to campaign meant she over-ruled the genuine experts. Including Bill.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1237049223981522945?s=20
Sometimes I've wished I had deep anonymised share trading set up on my mobile. So I can short, then and there. But that would be criminal.
Further - it is interesting to see how people think that science is a pick and mix counter. Believe in Global Warming and Ley lines. Want the government to follow the best advice and also whatever they think will work....
I expect the number is actually greater than 38 thousand.
I was admitted to hospital last weekend with pneumonia, I told staff I had recently been to Italy, as well as Armenia and UAE in the last 21 days. My wife is also from Venice and had visited there early Feb. Upon hearing this, they told me to wait outside the hospital, this was about 2am and around - 3 celcius. They said it was OK after about 10 minutes and brought me back in. 30 minutes or so later I was asked to wait outside the hospital again until being given the all clear that I could come back in. Once again, about an hour later I was asked to wait outside whilst another nurse was having a conversation on a phone to someone I presume higher up, again given the all clear. I asked to be tested but was refused, I then left as it was approaching 7am. I then visited my gp, diagnosed with pneumonia after an x Ray on my chest and given a course of steroids.
After one week I do feel better but still not 100 percent. I am in my early 30s and very fit. I don't believe I have corona virus but do believe I should have been tested given recent travel history and symptons.
There must be thousands of cases similar to myself plus plenty more with mild symptons who refuse to visit their gp.
Ive took a weeks unpaid leave and I'm staying at my uncles empty house in Lancashire, I've done my best to self contain until I feel 100 percent.
If these steps are taken after Wednesday's COBRA meeting it will probably make little difference but I can't help feeling that for the first time the government is looking just a little behind what the urgency of the situation requires.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
I think this is all about managed approach to step us towards lock down, rather than telling us to all get in our homes tomorrow and not move (like they did in Italy and caused people to rush to 4 corners of the land).
Italy has now gone up to 39%. The next person I meet who says this is just like the flu may be at risk of violence.
I wasn't suggesting we adopt their system, or approval of it. But it gives context to how they have moved the numbers on new infections.
97 new deaths, 1797 new cases.
And with the Easter holiday would provide a four week pause with the least disruption.
7985 currently infected (+1598) including 733 in intensive care (+83)
463 deaths (+97)
764 healed (+142)
Oh, and by the way, politicians, covering your statements disagreeing with the Chief Medical Officer with a political slogan doesn’t go down well. I thought Rory was more sensible than that.
Basically, sit back and do as you are told when you are told. A tricky message in 2020, but the correct one.
Otherwise he is a prat.
https://www.msdmanuals.com/home/lung-and-airway-disorders/interstitial-lung-diseases/acute-interstitial-pneumonia
(and I say this as someone, I will admit, has been sceptical of this so far)
You point about reducing total numbers by asking those who have the facility to do so to wfh is spot on of course.
Modena...the riot was yesterday. Now it has been settled down. 7 deaths, all among prisoners. Reported of being due to overdose after they stormed the nursery
2 more deaths for overdose also in Verona and Alessandria prisons as they stormed the nursery to take drugs during the confusion.
Pavia..riots yesterday. Reportedly they stole the keys from 2 guards (!). The 2 guards were held by prisoners for hours. Then left go. Now ordered restored.
Foggia...around 50 prisons escaped. 36 caught back.
Milan...riots currently taking place at San Vittore (the one in the city center).Some prisoners are on the roof. Smoke as some cells are burning.
It will be an extremely important moment.
Twat.
Sometimes opposition politicians need to understand that there are times when the usual adversarial politics need to suspended. This is one of those times.
Edit: that applies to Farage too, he also seems to be trying to make political capital from a national emergency.
Mayor now ordering all of them to isolate themselves at home.
Local priest: well, so many arrived, I didn't feel to send them back home, so I went on as usual
Think about it. Schools are a good setting for children. Controlled, we know where they are, under the supervision of trained state employees who have the authority to report symptoms. Typically have a nurse on site.
Or we can copy the Italians and send all children out dispersed like some mingling diaspora to be supervised by who knows whom and often at risk grandparents etc.
What an idiotic self defeating policy unless the school knows it has an outbreak which it is legally bound to report.
Media looking for a sensational story and opposition politicians determined to oppose government with no evidence, both risk undermining the strategy of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer.
I have no doubt that things will escalate in the coming days, but it appears that the vast majority of UK cases so far are returners from areas of prevalent infection, rather than people who have acquired the virus locally in the U.K.
Italy ~3 days
UK ~4 days
Denmark similar
(the UK and Denmark are more culturally similar than either is to Italy.)
All are adjustable downwards by ordering the population to adopt modified habits, like not touching surfaces and then one's mouth (or nose?)
UK govt: just do it. Before 1979, you considered it your duty to keep the population safe and secure. Some MPs, even Tories do still think this is your role.
More positive comment from a friend who's a statistician, but not a medic. -
'I think the dramatic slowdown in China and even in Korea canʼt all be due to authoritarian control and obedience. I think there must be a lot of undiagnosed cases conferring resistance, so the [case fatality rate] is probably not as high as first thought.'
And no-one has answered my vital questions about *what* we will be arming the Traffic Wardens with.
But my point is that there are bits that are science which include modelling the epidemiology of the virus and the likely effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. You might also consider the plotting of costs a science.
The ultimate decision depends on the values of the decision-makers presented with the evidence and how they choose to make a trade-off. There can also be differences in interpretation of the evidence. Scrutiny of this process is appropriate particularly if the preferences of those decision-makers does not align with wider society.
In case anyone wonders - it should be wooden furnitured SLRs for male traffic wardens. The plastic was notorious for being susceptible to chemicals. Sterlings for the ladies.