politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UK total up 47 to 163

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, I know that, I’m just wondering if it’s good form.

I don't see why not, the hotels and restaurants need the business.

Yep, that is true. I am also figuring that there are probably some very good deals to be had right now: suites for the price of a single room!

Mysticrose said:

Benpointer said:

TrèsDifficile said:

I think this constant reporting of numbers of confirmed cases of and deaths caused by Covid19 are really unhelpful. We don't have the faintest idea of how many unconfirmed cases there have been, nor how many of the deaths would have happened soon enough anyway. I believe the people hungry for such information have a disturbingly macabre fascination. We can be warned about the dangers of the virus without all of the dubious detail.

I'd strongly argue the case for fewer data.

At this stage, if you want to cause real panic, stop reporting the numbers.

Indeed.

I think they're getting this right.

Doom Merchant KLAXON

AlastairMeeks said:

eadric said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do:
1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days.
2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead
3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.

I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.

Thoughts?

The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.

And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.

This is the key point in my view. Travelling doesn't look inherently more dangerous than staying in Britain in the medium term for picking up the infection. So the only question is whether you will get adequate healthcare if you catch it wherever you're going.

Is travelling/flying not significantly higher risk? I reckon I average 3 or 4 colds a year, close to one of which seems to start when Im flying somewhere.

Pro_Rata said:

Pro_Rata said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235945259370041344?s=20

He should be certified.

A very real danger to the health of Americans and the rest of us

And the rest of us......

Indeed.

I wonder whether, despite the impending consequences of Trump's ostrich approach not having cut through to Americans yet, whether this could turn so quickly that Trump is unseated by his own party before November, even though the base looks solid as of today.

Remind me, is the 25th amendment, potentially on both Trump and his VP, the sole practical means of doing this?

In theory, Republicans vote on the presidential candidate at their convention, but Trump is running mostly unopposed or against a no-hoper Bill Weld, who has one delegate out of 1,400 allocated so far from primaries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Republican_National_Convention

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

Trump has cleverly put Pence in full charge of virus and the president is now concentrating on campaigning as far as I can see.

Pence will get all the blame under Trump's cunning plan.

Will it work?

Blame it all on Pence? People would have to be dumber than dumb to fall for that. So, yes, I can see it working.

For how long might it work? A week later could Trump get away with blaming Pence's replacement? Or would he take command himself? An iconic leader such as he is must be seen to exercise helmsmanship in a time of national crisis, and not merely by appointing people (or issuing tweets).

One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?

Casino_Royale said:

@SouthamObserver

My ambitions are limited to hoping I can still go to the Isle of Wight with my wife and daughter in two weeks time.

We love it and have been looking forward to it for ages!

Love the Isle of Wight. An enchanting place as a small child. Shanklin Chine stands out particularly.

There's a lot of stock exchange porn. This, however, feels important to me:

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1235986781906092034

NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”

Looks like there will be a few coming for the big battle for independence next year, the rats are fleeing London

EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter

malcolmg said:

Looks like there will be a few coming for the big battle for independence next year, the rats are fleeing London

EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter

It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.

Luckyguy1983 said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like there will be a few coming for the big battle for independence next year, the rats are fleeing London

EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter

It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.

Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.

Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.

eristdoof said:

Andy_JS said:

The mortality rate in NW Europe (including Germany) is currently 0.23.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0

Do you reall mean that the mortality rate is currently 23%? With almost a quarter of those infected dying that would be shockingly high!

I think you misplaced the decimal point.

If you look at the spreadsheet in the link I think Andy means 0.23%

egg said:

Henrietta4 said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

Trump has cleverly put Pence in full charge of virus and the president is now concentrating on campaigning as far as I can see.

Pence will get all the blame under Trump's cunning plan.

Will it work?

Blame it all on Pence? People would have to be dumber than dumb to fall for that. So, yes, I can see it working.

For how long might it work? A week later could Trump get away with blaming Pence's replacement? Or would he take command himself? An iconic leader such as he is must be seen to exercise helmsmanship in a time of national crisis, and not merely by appointing people (or issuing tweets).

USA wouldn’t have corona if Obama had been tougher on the virus.

I think that is a 'wee' bit optimistic

MikeSmithson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Quite a swing - typical after a GE?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1235946635047374849?s=20

Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?

Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.

So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?

Your last sentence is just nasty.

Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG

Some people need to grow up

I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.

The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.

It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.

A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented.
The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with.
HS2 decision made.
The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.

Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.

A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.

I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.

The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.

I think that yours is the tribal response here.

Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.

So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.

NickPalmer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect?

It'd be helpful to know the answer to that - I have a friend with asthma.

I have two different breathing inhallers and am fairly certain they would be of limited value and hospital treatment with oxygen is probably the best and only option

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

The mortality rate in NW Europe (including Germany) is currently 0.23.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0

South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened

https://twitter.com/aworldoftruth/status/1235973571958145027?s=20

On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.

Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.

AlastairMeeks said:

There's a lot of stock exchange porn. This, however, feels important to me:

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1235986781906092034

NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”

Yes I am superforecasting 20000 before 30000 on the Dow. And the money is where the mouth is now. I'm short. Nevertheless I've sold the Dow. Did it yesterday. Have not traded the financials for years but this has tempted me out of retirement. Ooo.

Pulpstar said:

How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?

Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.

He managed the trick in Minnesota also.

Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.

Are the Primary numbers comparable when the GOP primary isn't competitive this year? Perhaps there are some people voting in the Dem primary who would have voted in the GOP primary in 2016.

Pulpstar said:

How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?

Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.

He managed the trick in Minnesota also.

Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.

I think it is. My only concern is if he really has lost it mentally. But I don't see sufficient evidence for that right now. If he can do the campaign I think he wins big.

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?

Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.

He managed the trick in Minnesota also.

Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.

I think it is. My only concern is if he really has lost it mentally. But I don't see sufficient evidence for that right now. If he can do the campaign I think he wins big.

My concern is he never ‘had it’ mentally.

But the same is of course true of Trump.

Luckyguy1983 said:

One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?

For most people with mild symptoms, just treat the symptoms with over the counter medications - ibuprofen, acetaminophen, NyQuil, sudafed, Afrin. Basically anti-inflammatories and decongestants.

For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support.

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.

This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?

Back then they had their daily newspaper and an evening news. They did not have to fill a need for a 24 hours cycle with "stuff".

The world should agree to put out one set of information each day at 6.00 am GMT. The "OMG! Another 289 in Italy" type statistic every couple of hours just fuels a sense of rolling doom.

I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).

I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235945259370041344?s=20

He should be certified.

A very real danger to the health of Americans and the rest of us

So trump is just going to outright lie to win?

And 40% atleast will believe him.

nunu2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235945259370041344?s=20

He should be certified.

A very real danger to the health of Americans and the rest of us

So trump is just going to outright lie to win?

And 40% atleast will believe him.

Well, it worked last time.

People are stealing sanitizing gel from hospitals?

You think you've heard of every sort of human evil and then something comes along to surprise you again.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

The mortality rate in NW Europe (including Germany) is currently 0.23.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0

South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened

https://twitter.com/aworldoftruth/status/1235973571958145027?s=20

On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.

Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.

No, but it stops me posting relentlessly pessimistic comments!

It's the lower bound assuming perfect data. Big assumption.

Monkeys said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like there will be a few coming for the big battle for independence next year, the rats are fleeing London

EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter

It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.

Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.

Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.

I don't see what's sad about it. Scotland is a wonderful country and deserves better than a bunch of loonies running its Government as a pro-indy pressure group.

TimT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

One of the few interesting things I've read on PB about Coronavirus was the account of the 25 year old sufferer who has since recovered. Assuming there is no vaccine on the near horizon, I am wondering what the most effective protocol to treat a case is. Given that difficulty breathing is one of the worst symptoms, do asthma inhalers have a beneficial effect? Given that we don't want sufferers to bring the lurgy to their local GP surgery, should Corona packs that can be posted through letterboxes be a thing?

For most people with mild symptoms, just treat the symptoms with over the counter medications - ibuprofen, acetaminophen, NyQuil, sudafed, Afrin. Basically anti-inflammatories and decongestants.

For serious cases, it is still treat the symptoms, but then with things like ventilators and organ support.

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I am interested in the recollections from older posters about the 1957 and 1968 flu epidemics. In each of those cases some 80,000 people died in Britain from the flu. Having been born in 1965 I am too young to remember either but looking at the history of the country I certainly don't remember it being portrayed as such a crisis as we are now seeing in the media.

This is not to play down the seriousness of the Covid-19 but I just wonder whether those who were adults at that time remember it being such a huge thing as this has turned into?

Back then they had their daily newspaper and an evening news. They did not have to fill a need for a 24 hours cycle with "stuff".

The world should agree to put out one set of information each day at 6.00 am GMT. The "OMG! Another 289 in Italy" type statistic every couple of hours just fuels a sense of rolling doom.

I got the 1968 flu - as did my parents and my 3 siblings. It was awful. But, to my recollection, it was reported in a factual dispassionate way, rather than fear mongering headlines. But then we were living in Cyprus without TV, so this may be a biased sample (or biased memory, even).

I was the first to recover, and had to go to a friend's birthday party. My mum was too sick to drive me, so got a taxi for me (I was 10, those were the days, eh?). So I went on my own in the taxi, only to see doom and destruction on the way. And when I got there, the restaurant was gone and the party cancelled. 3 tornadoes had touched down - one in Limassol, one in Akrotiri, and another in Episkopi.

But one would think that a nebuliser to open the airways would be beneficial?

eadric said:

Check the maths here. This is why America is DOOMED

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1235934990560645122?s=20

Mike Bloomberg is rich, but he's not $327 trillion rich.

The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.

eadric said:

I know I'm generally very sanguine and relaxed about Covid-19, and usually scoff at the doomsters, whiners and apocalypse-porno-merchants, but even I was a trifle disturbed by this:

Apart from the 1-4% fatality rate, of a disease which may infect 20-60% of all humanity, amongst the tens of millions who "recover" may be many millions who are permanently scarred, require lung transplants etc, have lifelong immunity problems.

Long term, the disease is described as being "like a combination of SARS and AIDS".

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1235674258858061825?s=20

"a combination of SARS and AIDS"

Like that is going to help knock the "made in a lab" conspiracy theories on the head....

SouthamObserver said:

The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.

Great opportunity for Hancock this.

If it goes OK he'll win a place in people's hearts - something he does not have now and has never had.

SouthamObserver said:

The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.

He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.

glw said:

SouthamObserver said:

The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.

He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.

Politician playing at populism.
Populist playing at politics.

There's an awful big difference, as this is showing.

eadric said:

For clarity, on my last comment, there are other doctors disputing the "like Aids" remark, saying it relies on a mistranslation.

But then there are other doctors saying this translation is justified.

DYOR, if you dare.

The evidence that Coronavirus causes long term damage in some recovered patients is undisputed.

I would be surprised if it didn't to be honest. For start the immune system gets a hell of whacking I would have thought (I am not medical).

Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.

Chameleon said:

glw said:

SouthamObserver said:

The fact that Johnson is bone idle is a real plus currently. It means there is no-one seeking to second guess the experts. For that reason, I feel (and hope) that the UK response to COVID-19 is towards the positive end of best practice.

He is behaving markedly different from Trump who has repeatedly contradicted the medics and scientists.

Politician playing at populism.
Populist playing at politics.

There's an awful big difference, as this is showing.

That's a really good way of putting it.

Andy_JS said:

Almost all the fatalities continue to take place in 4 countries: 3,408 out of 3,461.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And 8 of the 53 took place in the past 24 odd hours. Your ridiculous belief that somehow western Europe will be mostly left alone is a bit silly.

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For clarity, on my last comment, there are other doctors disputing the "like Aids" remark, saying it relies on a mistranslation.

But then there are other doctors saying this translation is justified.

DYOR, if you dare.

The evidence that Coronavirus causes long term damage in some recovered patients is undisputed.

I would be surprised if it didn't to be honest. For start the immune system gets a hell of whacking I would have thought (I am not medical).

Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.

Me too. I'm basically going to start next weekend after this. I have one more trip to the Hebrides next week (fairly safe I hope) and then that's pretty much it.

I have supplies for a month or so.

I am already social distancing otherwise. Turning down parties now, and so on.

Sad, but necessary.

Very sad for your would be hosts especially

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

eadric said:

Henrietta5 said:

Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.

Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.

Which is your favourite model of the moment?

Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)

Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.

https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19

The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.

Is it?

If a country is locked down for 2-3 weeks then surely the virus goes away?

If people can't move they can't spread it and the virus will peter out in the vast majority that do.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

eadric said:

Henrietta5 said:

Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.

Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.

Which is your favourite model of the moment?

Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)

Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.

https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19

The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.

Is it?

If a country is locked down for 2-3 weeks then surely the virus goes away?

If people can't move they can't spread it and the virus will peter out in the vast majority that do.

That needs global co-operation (including the US), and even one or two cases slipping through the net will restart it again.

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Andy_JS said:

The mortality rate in NW Europe (including Germany) is currently 0.23.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0

South Korea is a source of encouragement. They've done more reliable tests than anyone and their mortality rate is just 0.6%, six times nastier than flu but not Doomsday. Some experts are heartened

https://twitter.com/aworldoftruth/status/1235973571958145027?s=20

On the other hand there are dissenters who say this is because they are catching so many cases very early, and a lot of these cases will eventually succumb, raising the CFRatio.

Bear in mind that 0.6% is the absolute lower bound in SK. If not one more person had the disease, and everyone currently with it recovered then it would have a CFR of 0.6%. That is absolutely not realistic.

That's not strictly true.

It's more accurate to say: imagine a steady state, where no more people get the disease. There will still be people who have it now, who will go on to die. Therefore for the cohort of people with the disease right now in SK, 0.6% is the low-bound of fatality.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?

Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.

He managed the trick in Minnesota also.

Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.

This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".

And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.

There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.

Casino_Royale said:

The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.

Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Andy_JS said:

Almost all the fatalities continue to take place in 4 countries: 3,408 out of 3,461.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And 8 of the 53 took place in the past 24 odd hours. Your ridiculous belief that somehow western Europe will be mostly left alone is a bit silly.

He is right to point out Germany tho, it is an odd anomaly. 670 cases and still not a single death?

That's..... weird. I am sure it is explicable, or just coincidence. But it is striking, nonetheless.

Well there's at least one, likely quite a few already in life threatening condition: https://www.rnd.de/politik/coronavirus-in-munster-erster-deutscher-infizierter-in-lebensgefahr-TIFFH3SDTVDMPPVE24G36T3L2A.html

A lot of their NRW cases were from a festival with a very young demographic iirc. Same reason as why SK is having a relatively slow ramp up in deaths, and why Italy is suffering so badly.

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For clarity, on my last comment, there are other doctors disputing the "like Aids" remark, saying it relies on a mistranslation.

But then there are other doctors saying this translation is justified.

DYOR, if you dare.

The evidence that Coronavirus causes long term damage in some recovered patients is undisputed.

I would be surprised if it didn't to be honest. For start the immune system gets a hell of whacking I would have thought (I am not medical).

Seriously starting to think about self isolation at home with my wife for next two months.

Me too. I'm basically going to start next weekend after this. I have one more trip to the Hebrides next week (fairly safe I hope) and then that's pretty much it.

I have supplies for a month or so.

I am already social distancing otherwise. Turning down parties now, and so on.

Sad, but necessary.

I cannot social distance at work, but I think that the Villa game on Monday will be my last for a while. Download festival off the agenda too.

AlastairMeeks said:

There's a lot of stock exchange porn. This, however, feels important to me:

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1235986781906092034

NB “This is what the start of a recession after a long bull market feels like,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “This is the first day of seeing some panic in the market.”

There were several days last week when no new corporate debt capital markets products went to market in the US. That’s partially changed this week but only for good credits. The junk/high yield (delete to taste) market remains in stasis.

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

eadric said:

Henrietta5 said:

Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.

Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.

Which is your favourite model of the moment?

Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)

Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.

https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19

The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.

I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.

So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

Andy_JS said:

Almost all the fatalities continue to take place in 4 countries: 3,408 out of 3,461.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And 8 of the 53 took place in the past 24 odd hours. Your ridiculous belief that somehow western Europe will be mostly left alone is a bit silly.

He is right to point out Germany tho, it is an odd anomaly. 670 cases and still not a single death?

That's..... weird. I am sure it is explicable, or just coincidence. But it is striking, nonetheless.

Germany (and the UK) are testing lots and lots of people. We're therefore picking up lots of asymptomatic (or mild symptoms) people. In the US, probably none of these people would have been picked up.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

eadric said:

Henrietta5 said:

Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.

Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.

Which is your favourite model of the moment?

Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)

Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.

https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19

The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.

I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.

So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.

There is some evidence that the ACE2 receptor (the viral entry site) has significant genetic variation. If so, some people may well be substantially less at risk of infection.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1